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Marvin Harrison..year in, year out... (1 Viewer)

Kafka

Footballguy
Every year, he seems to be slightly downgraded and left out of the "Top Three" or "Top Five" wr's;yet he constantly produces in any scoring format. While his rec. totals have tailed off, his TD's remain constant:the past 6 yrs...14,15,11,10,15,12. Phenomenal, considering the last two years, Manning and Harrison basically sat out the last 2 games, not to mention numerous 4th quarters. As far as consistency and class, he's money. With the Colts probably having to play out all 16 games to the fullest and (without Edge) more of a reliance on the passing game, I cannot see him not being in the top 3. Thoughts?

 
Every year, he seems to be slightly downgraded and left out of the "Top Three" or "Top Five" wr's;yet he constantly produces in any scoring format. While his rec. totals have tailed off, his TD's remain constant:the past 6 yrs...14,15,11,10,15,12. Phenomenal, considering the last two years, Manning and Harrison basically sat out the last 2 games, not to mention numerous 4th quarters. As far as consistency and class, he's money. With the Colts probably having to play out all 16 games to the fullest and (without Edge) more of a reliance on the passing game, I cannot see him not being in the top 3. Thoughts?
:goodposting:
 
Touchdowns are allegedly the hardest thing to predict for a receiver. On the flip side, Manning is a lock for 30+ touchdowns and Harrison is still his top guy. I think people shy away because Wayne looks as though he's been slowly upstaging Marvin and Harrison is certainly stable but he doesn't have the perceived upside of guys like Steve Smith, Holt, CJ, Moss, etc.

 
I think there are several reasons why Harrison is sliding down people's WR lists.

1 - He is on the wrong side of thirty.

2 - The emergence of Reggie Wayne.

3 - Younger WRs establishing themselves as stars(Chad Johnson, Steve Smith, Larry Fitzgerald, etc...)

My take on that reasoning:

1 - Thirty isn't what it used to be. We saw Jerry Rice and Tim Brown maintain a high level of play into their late thirties, and Rod and Jimmy Smith are presently still playing at a high level.

2 - Probably the best reason of the three. Wayne has the pedigree(also a 1st rounder), has a lot of the same characteristics as Marvin(hard worker/good route runner), and is younger. If Marvin slows down at some point, it wouldn't take much for Reggie to leapfrog him to become the Colts new #1.

3 - While the younger guys have made big splashes, most of them have yet to prove that they can be "the man" year in, year out like Marvin has.

While not as sexy a pick as some, Marvin is consistently a stud. For 7 consecutive seasons, he has put up at least 1100 yards and 10 TDs. After doing a little research, Jerry Rice is the only WR I can find who can also make that boast. If you're a believer in the saying "you can win a league in the first rounds, but you can lose it", he is the WR you want to have.

 
Since when has he been left out of the 1st 3 or 1st 5 discussions? Maybe in a dynasty, but not redrafts.

 
Every year, he seems to be slightly downgraded and left out of the "Top Three" or "Top Five" wr's;yet he constantly produces in any scoring format.
But not as a Top Three WR. Which is why he isnt graded as such. In 2005 he was 9th in FP, in 2003 and 2004 he was 5th. His TDs are still stellar, but his receptions have fallen off from 8.9 c/g in 2002 to 5.5 c/g in 2005- thats 40%. 2005 wasnt an anomale either, his touches have simply fallen off in the last 3 years. Its reasonable to think if his catches continue to degrade it will sooner or later affect his TD totals.Personally I think with Edge gone Harrison will see one more year in the sun and have a pretty good year, but with TO and Randy Moss likely to be back in the elite mix it doesnt leave a lot of room when you gotta figure to account for Torry Holt, Steve Smith, and Chad Johnson (plus howver you feel about Santana Moss and the AZ boys). A lot depends on what happens in Oakland and with TO, but there is a fair chance Marvin will still fall out of my top 5 this season. Without his TD production he falls out of the top 10 completely and that is scary.
 
Manning is a lock for 30+ touchdowns.
Seasons played for Manning: 8Seasons with 30 TD passes: 2
Manning each season:26

26

33

27

29

49

28

I knew I was close, I should've said he's a lock for 25+ td's each year.
Yeah, but if the money line on and over and under for Manning were made it would probably be about 33 based on the new rules and Edge not being there. Think about what your prediction would be? While the past would lead you to say that the 49 is clearly the aberration year, the two factors I stated make me think he will put up 35-37 TD's this year. One other factor to remember, that with Edge last year and not throwing any TD's in the last two games (rested), Manning was on a pace for 32 TD's if he played all 16 games. Assuming health, I think the odds of Manning going over 30 TD's are very high. BTW, Harrison is still clearly a better receiver than Wayne and I wouldn't expect that to change for two years.

 
Manning is a lock for 30+ touchdowns.
Seasons played for Manning: 8Seasons with 30 TD passes: 2
Manning each season:26

26

33

27

29

49

28

I knew I was close, I should've said he's a lock for 25+ td's each year.
Yeah, but if the money line on and over and under for Manning were made it would probably be about 33 based on the new rules and Edge not being there. Think about what your prediction would be? While the past would lead you to say that the 49 is clearly the aberration year, the two factors I stated make me think he will put up 35-37 TD's this year. One other factor to remember, that with Edge last year and not throwing any TD's in the last two games (rested), Manning was on a pace for 32 TD's if he played all 16 games. Assuming health, I think the odds of Manning going over 30 TD's are very high. BTW, Harrison is still clearly a better receiver than Wayne and I wouldn't expect that to change for two years.
I wrote AT LENGTH in NUMEROUS threads last year that we should not evaluate Manning based on his 49 TD season and I set the over/under at 35 TD and advised people to take the under as it would be easy money. MANY people thought I was nuts and that it was a sucker bet the other way.Getting to 30 TD is no small feat, and on the surface it may look like Manning will again up his TD total based on James' absence. That's certainly a reasonable premise, but one I am not yet prepared to make. We are still a long way from opening day, and until I see what the Colts roster looks like and who will be in the backfield, I can't really comment on what to expect.

 
While Marv may not be top 3 year in and year out, as has been stated time and again he's pretty much a lock the top 6-7. The big thing with the top 5 wideouts is that they change EVERY YEAR. Sure everyone has their prediction on who will shine in a particular year, but nobody really knows for sure.

My point is that if you're going to draft a WR early in the draft, you're much better off going with a guy you KNOW (barring injury) will be in the top 6-7 (even if he probably won't be top 3), than taking a flier on a guy who could be tops, but could just as easily be a bust.

It always comes back to risk/reward. All too often, you see the guys who draft a solid core and then 1 or 2 of their mid-late round picks have a stud-like season winning FF championships. It's not the guy who drafted a load of high risk, high reward, glamour picks. This is a big part of the reason you draft for depth instead of taking stud TE's, K's and D's early.

Go America.

 
Manning is a lock for 30+ touchdowns.
Seasons played for Manning: 8Seasons with 30 TD passes: 2
Manning each season:26

26

33

27

29

49

28

I knew I was close, I should've said he's a lock for 25+ td's each year.
Yeah, but if the money line on and over and under for Manning were made it would probably be about 33 based on the new rules and Edge not being there. Think about what your prediction would be? While the past would lead you to say that the 49 is clearly the aberration year, the two factors I stated make me think he will put up 35-37 TD's this year. One other factor to remember, that with Edge last year and not throwing any TD's in the last two games (rested), Manning was on a pace for 32 TD's if he played all 16 games. Assuming health, I think the odds of Manning going over 30 TD's are very high. BTW, Harrison is still clearly a better receiver than Wayne and I wouldn't expect that to change for two years.
I wrote AT LENGTH in NUMEROUS threads last year that we should not evaluate Manning based on his 49 TD season and I set the over/under at 35 TD and advised people to take the under as it would be easy money. MANY people thought I was nuts and that it was a sucker bet the other way.Getting to 30 TD is no small feat, and on the surface it may look like Manning will again up his TD total based on James' absence. That's certainly a reasonable premise, but one I am not yet prepared to make. We are still a long way from opening day, and until I see what the Colts roster looks like and who will be in the backfield, I can't really comment on what to expect.
Agreed David, however, since the rules have changed where the defensive backs can't touch the receivers, I think this gives Peyton a higher number. KEEP IN MIND THAT PEYTON WAS ON A PACE FOR 32 LAST YEAR.
 
While Marv may not be top 3 year in and year out, as has been stated time and again he's pretty much a lock the top 6-7. The big thing with the top 5 wideouts is that they change EVERY YEAR. Sure everyone has their prediction on who will shine in a particular year, but nobody really knows for sure.

My point is that if you're going to draft a WR early in the draft, you're much better off going with a guy you KNOW (barring injury) will be in the top 6-7 (even if he probably won't be top 3), than taking a flier on a guy who could be tops, but could just as easily be a bust.

It always comes back to risk/reward. All too often, you see the guys who draft a solid core and then 1 or 2 of their mid-late round picks have a stud-like season winning FF championships. It's not the guy who drafted a load of high risk, high reward, glamour picks. This is a big part of the reason you draft for depth instead of taking stud TE's, K's and D's early.

Go America.
Hear,hear. Steve Smith, Larry and Anquan seem obvious this year, just as they did last year. No sarcasm intended. Give me 88 every year, especially pro-rated over a full 16 game season. As for Reggie Wayne, what about TJ in Cinncy in regards to CJ? How many TD's does Chad have over the past 4 yrs...i.e...the prime of his career?
 
While Marv may not be top 3 year in and year out, as has been stated time and again he's pretty much a lock the top 6-7. The big thing with the top 5 wideouts is that they change EVERY YEAR. Sure everyone has their prediction on who will shine in a particular year, but nobody really knows for sure.

My point is that if you're going to draft a WR early in the draft, you're much better off going with a guy you KNOW (barring injury) will be in the top 6-7 (even if he probably won't be top 3), than taking a flier on a guy who could be tops, but could just as easily be a bust.

It always comes back to risk/reward. All too often, you see the guys who draft a solid core and then 1 or 2 of their mid-late round picks have a stud-like season winning FF championships. It's not the guy who drafted a load of high risk, high reward, glamour picks. This is a big part of the reason you draft for depth instead of taking stud TE's, K's and D's early.

Go America.
It does seem like the top 7 WRs change quite a bit year in and year out ... Anyone have a top 7 WR list handy over the last several years? :)

 
While Marv may not be top 3 year in and year out,  as has been stated time and again he's pretty much a lock the top 6-7.  The big thing with the top 5 wideouts is that they change EVERY YEAR.  Sure everyone has their prediction on who will shine in a particular year, but nobody really knows for sure. 

My point is that if you're going to draft a WR early in the draft, you're much better off going with a guy you KNOW (barring injury) will be in the top 6-7 (even if he probably won't be top 3), than taking a flier on a guy who could be tops, but could just as easily be a bust. 

It always comes back to risk/reward.  All too often, you see the guys who draft a solid core and then 1 or 2 of their mid-late round picks have a stud-like season winning FF championships.  It's not the guy who drafted a load of high risk, high reward, glamour picks.  This is a big part of the reason you draft for depth instead of taking stud TE's, K's and D's early.

Go America.
It does seem like the top 7 WRs change quite a bit year in and year out ... Anyone have a top 7 WR list handy over the last several years? :)
0 PPR2005

Steve Smith 237

Larry Fitzgerald 205

Santana Moss 202

Chad Johnson 201

Joey Galloway 189

Torry Holt 187

Chris Chambers 187

Marvin Harrison 187

Anquan Boldin 187

Hines Ward 165

2004

Muhsin Muhammad 238

Javon Walker 210

Joe Horn 206

Terrell Owens 204

Marvin Harrison 201

Drew Bennett 197

Torry Holt 197

Reggie Wayne 193

Chad Johnson 185

Donald Driver 175

2003

Randy Moss 267

Torry Holt 242

Chad Johnson 196

Anquan Boldin 189

Marvin Harrison 188

Hines Ward 182

Derrick Mason 179

Santana Moss 177

Darrell Jackson 168

Keenan McCardell 165

Chris Chambers 165

TOTAL 2003-2005

Torry Holt 626

Chad Johnson 581

Marvin Harrison 575

Randy Moss 571

Santana Moss 494

Chris Chambers 491

Terrell Owens 480

Hines Ward 479

Derrick Mason 463

Reggie Wayne 453

Anquan Boldin 444

Muhsin Muhammad 438

Joe Horn 436

Rod Smith 422

Eddie Kennison 418

Donald Driver 407

Steve Smith 400

Darrell Jackson 396

Jimmy Smith 396

Laveranues Coles 375

 
2 - Probably the best reason of the three. Wayne has the pedigree(also a 1st rounder), has a lot of the same characteristics as Marvin(hard worker/good route runner), and is younger. If Marvin slows down at some point, it wouldn't take much for Reggie to leapfrog him to become the Colts new #1.
What's deceptive about this notion is that without a major injury, Marvin, even if he drops to 2nd on the Colts in terms of FF points behind Wayne, will still probably be putting up rock solid numbers. It could very well be Chris Carter to Randy Moss in the waning of Carter's career. Moss was going balistic all over the place but Carter was still putting up rock solid numbers. Don't be too concerned if Wayne edges out Harrison as the top FF point producer on the Colts at WR.
 
2 - Probably the best reason of the three.  Wayne has the pedigree(also a 1st rounder), has a lot of the same characteristics as Marvin(hard worker/good route runner), and is younger.  If Marvin slows down at some point, it wouldn't take much for Reggie to leapfrog him to become the Colts new #1.
What's deceptive about this notion is that without a major injury, Marvin, even if he drops to 2nd on the Colts in terms of FF points behind Wayne, will still probably be putting up rock solid numbers. It could very well be Chris Carter to Randy Moss in the waning of Carter's career. Moss was going balistic all over the place but Carter was still putting up rock solid numbers. Don't be too concerned if Wayne edges out Harrison as the top FF point producer on the Colts at WR.
If Wayne outproduces Harrison that means somebody got screwed out of some value on draft day. Harrison top 6-7 AND Wayne outscoring him? :o
 
2 - Probably the best reason of the three. Wayne has the pedigree(also a 1st rounder), has a lot of the same characteristics as Marvin(hard worker/good route runner), and is younger. If Marvin slows down at some point, it wouldn't take much for Reggie to leapfrog him to become the Colts new #1.
What's deceptive about this notion is that without a major injury, Marvin, even if he drops to 2nd on the Colts in terms of FF points behind Wayne, will still probably be putting up rock solid numbers. It could very well be Chris Carter to Randy Moss in the waning of Carter's career. Moss was going balistic all over the place but Carter was still putting up rock solid numbers. Don't be too concerned if Wayne edges out Harrison as the top FF point producer on the Colts at WR.
If Wayne outproduces Harrison that means somebody got screwed out of some value on draft day. Harrison top 6-7 AND Wayne outscoring him? :o
No, what I'm saying is that Wayne could outscore Harrison and HArrison could still quite easily be top 15. Sure, it's not top 7, but Harrison is still a starting WR on all but the smallest FFB leagues. They could be more balanced this year and instead of Harrison finishing 9th and Wayned 21st as they did in 2005. Suppose they split the stats the two put up last year evenly? Harrison scored 177 points and Wayne scored 129. That averages out to 153 per which was 12th last year in a standard scoring league.

I guess what I'm saying is that there are a ton of points to be doled out by the Indy passing game. Wayne could outscore HArrison and MArvin could still average 10 points a game....

 
2 - Probably the best reason of the three.  Wayne has the pedigree(also a 1st rounder), has a lot of the same characteristics as Marvin(hard worker/good route runner), and is younger.  If Marvin slows down at some point, it wouldn't take much for Reggie to leapfrog him to become the Colts new #1.
What's deceptive about this notion is that without a major injury, Marvin, even if he drops to 2nd on the Colts in terms of FF points behind Wayne, will still probably be putting up rock solid numbers. It could very well be Chris Carter to Randy Moss in the waning of Carter's career. Moss was going balistic all over the place but Carter was still putting up rock solid numbers. Don't be too concerned if Wayne edges out Harrison as the top FF point producer on the Colts at WR.
If Wayne outproduces Harrison that means somebody got screwed out of some value on draft day. Harrison top 6-7 AND Wayne outscoring him? :o
No, what I'm saying is that Wayne could outscore Harrison and HArrison could still quite easily be top 15. Sure, it's not top 7, but Harrison is still a starting WR on all but the smallest FFB leagues. They could be more balanced this year and instead of Harrison finishing 9th and Wayned 21st as they did in 2005. Suppose they split the stats the two put up last year evenly? Harrison scored 177 points and Wayne scored 129. That averages out to 153 per which was 12th last year in a standard scoring league.

I guess what I'm saying is that there are a ton of points to be doled out by the Indy passing game. Wayne could outscore HArrison and MArvin could still average 10 points a game....
Not to hijack this thread, but I wasted 15 minutes of my life reading your discourse with Pony Boy. As an unbiased observer, you come off as a whiny bi-atch. Looks to me like he told you to get lost. My advice? Show some class, drop that crap from your sig and get on with life.
 
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I certainly can see him being out of the top 3. There are so many good receivers in the NFL right now. And Harrison will be 34 at the start of the season. Not that age is the end all but it must get more difficult every season.

All the good things said about Marvin are true. He is consistent; he scores TDs. The numbers he has put up are remarkable. And thats part of the problem. Harrison will likely be over-valued and will be taken too early (for me).

 
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2 - Probably the best reason of the three. Wayne has the pedigree(also a 1st rounder), has a lot of the same characteristics as Marvin(hard worker/good route runner), and is younger. If Marvin slows down at some point, it wouldn't take much for Reggie to leapfrog him to become the Colts new #1.
What's deceptive about this notion is that without a major injury, Marvin, even if he drops to 2nd on the Colts in terms of FF points behind Wayne, will still probably be putting up rock solid numbers. It could very well be Chris Carter to Randy Moss in the waning of Carter's career. Moss was going balistic all over the place but Carter was still putting up rock solid numbers. Don't be too concerned if Wayne edges out Harrison as the top FF point producer on the Colts at WR.
If Wayne outproduces Harrison that means somebody got screwed out of some value on draft day. Harrison top 6-7 AND Wayne outscoring him? :o
No, what I'm saying is that Wayne could outscore Harrison and HArrison could still quite easily be top 15. Sure, it's not top 7, but Harrison is still a starting WR on all but the smallest FFB leagues. They could be more balanced this year and instead of Harrison finishing 9th and Wayned 21st as they did in 2005. Suppose they split the stats the two put up last year evenly? Harrison scored 177 points and Wayne scored 129. That averages out to 153 per which was 12th last year in a standard scoring league.

I guess what I'm saying is that there are a ton of points to be doled out by the Indy passing game. Wayne could outscore HArrison and MArvin could still average 10 points a game....
Not to hijack this thread, but I wasted 15 minutes of my life reading your discourse with Pony Boy. As an unbiased observer, you come off as a whiny bi-atch. Looks to me like he told you to get lost. My advice? Show some class, drop that crap from your sig and get on with life.
Funny, you're the only one to think that. Tell your buddy Pony Boy I said hi. And if he wants me to remove this from my sig, then he'll have to just honor the bet he made instead of running away like the little girl that he is....
 
2 - Probably the best reason of the three.  Wayne has the pedigree(also a 1st rounder), has a lot of the same characteristics as Marvin(hard worker/good route runner), and is younger.  If Marvin slows down at some point, it wouldn't take much for Reggie to leapfrog him to become the Colts new #1.
What's deceptive about this notion is that without a major injury, Marvin, even if he drops to 2nd on the Colts in terms of FF points behind Wayne, will still probably be putting up rock solid numbers. It could very well be Chris Carter to Randy Moss in the waning of Carter's career. Moss was going balistic all over the place but Carter was still putting up rock solid numbers. Don't be too concerned if Wayne edges out Harrison as the top FF point producer on the Colts at WR.
If Wayne outproduces Harrison that means somebody got screwed out of some value on draft day. Harrison top 6-7 AND Wayne outscoring him? :o
No, what I'm saying is that Wayne could outscore Harrison and HArrison could still quite easily be top 15. Sure, it's not top 7, but Harrison is still a starting WR on all but the smallest FFB leagues. They could be more balanced this year and instead of Harrison finishing 9th and Wayned 21st as they did in 2005. Suppose they split the stats the two put up last year evenly? Harrison scored 177 points and Wayne scored 129. That averages out to 153 per which was 12th last year in a standard scoring league.

I guess what I'm saying is that there are a ton of points to be doled out by the Indy passing game. Wayne could outscore HArrison and MArvin could still average 10 points a game....
Not to hijack this thread, but I wasted 15 minutes of my life reading your discourse with Pony Boy. As an unbiased observer, you come off as a whiny bi-atch. Looks to me like he told you to get lost. My advice? Show some class, drop that crap from your sig and get on with life.
Funny, you're the only one to think that. Tell your buddy Pony Boy I said hi. And if he wants me to remove this from my sig, then he'll have to just honor the bet he made instead of running away like the little girl that he is....
You're making my point.
 
2 - Probably the best reason of the three. Wayne has the pedigree(also a 1st rounder), has a lot of the same characteristics as Marvin(hard worker/good route runner), and is younger. If Marvin slows down at some point, it wouldn't take much for Reggie to leapfrog him to become the Colts new #1.
What's deceptive about this notion is that without a major injury, Marvin, even if he drops to 2nd on the Colts in terms of FF points behind Wayne, will still probably be putting up rock solid numbers. It could very well be Chris Carter to Randy Moss in the waning of Carter's career. Moss was going balistic all over the place but Carter was still putting up rock solid numbers. Don't be too concerned if Wayne edges out Harrison as the top FF point producer on the Colts at WR.
If Wayne outproduces Harrison that means somebody got screwed out of some value on draft day. Harrison top 6-7 AND Wayne outscoring him? :o
No, what I'm saying is that Wayne could outscore Harrison and HArrison could still quite easily be top 15. Sure, it's not top 7, but Harrison is still a starting WR on all but the smallest FFB leagues. They could be more balanced this year and instead of Harrison finishing 9th and Wayned 21st as they did in 2005. Suppose they split the stats the two put up last year evenly? Harrison scored 177 points and Wayne scored 129. That averages out to 153 per which was 12th last year in a standard scoring league.

I guess what I'm saying is that there are a ton of points to be doled out by the Indy passing game. Wayne could outscore HArrison and MArvin could still average 10 points a game....
Not to hijack this thread, but I wasted 15 minutes of my life reading your discourse with Pony Boy. As an unbiased observer, you come off as a whiny bi-atch. Looks to me like he told you to get lost. My advice? Show some class, drop that crap from your sig and get on with life.
Funny, you're the only one to think that. Tell your buddy Pony Boy I said hi. And if he wants me to remove this from my sig, then he'll have to just honor the bet he made instead of running away like the little girl that he is....
You're making my point.
BTW, whenever I come up with something more sig worthy I will change it. Probably insert my squad in my main dynasty league once we have our draft and FA night. Until then, the sig stays. I want people to see what kind of a tool Pony Boy is. And by bringing this up in this thread you helped me with that. Thanks....You're a real pal....
 

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