Marvin Harrison (1 Viewer)

[DevilDog919]

Marvin Harrison has defied age for some time now, and many keep predicting year in and year out that this was his last year and he will slow down soon. Well...he hasnt. I did a little research, and it got me wondering can Harrison play at an above-average pace until age 40 or so. Jerry Rice played at an above-average pace right up until 40, and his last few productive years were pretty similar to Harrison's situation also. Harrison has the edge in each category imo, but look at the similarities. Rice had Gannon throwing to him, above average QB at the time, and also had Tim Brown lining up opposite him to keep defenses honest. Harrison has Manning and Wayne...and the rest of the Colts offense for that matter! I'm sure Manning will keep going to Harrison as long as he's there, question is...does Marvin have the same drive that Jerry Rice had? I think so...

Jerry Rice's stats:

Year Team Rec Yds Avg Lg TD 1st YAC Trgt

1985 SF 49 927 18.9 66 3 0 0 0

1986 SF 86 1570 18.3 66 15 0 0 0

1987 SF 65 1078 16.6 57 22 0 0 0

1988 SF 64 1306 20.4 96 9 0 0 0

1989 SF 82 1483 18.1 68 17 0 0 0

1990 SF 100 1502 15 64 13 0 0 0

1991 SF 80 1206 15.1 73 14 54 0 134

1992 SF 84 1201 14.3 80 10 58 396 139

1993 SF 98 1503 15.3 80 15 72 446 153

1994 SF 112 1499 13.4 69 13 77 519 151

1995 SF 122 1848 15.1 81 15 75 692 176

1996 SF 108 1254 11.6 39 8 72 323 153

1997 SF 7 78 11.1 16 1 4 12 8

1998 SF 82 1157 14.1 75 9 55 456 151

1999 SF 67 830 12.4 62 5 41 192 124

2000 SF 75 805 10.7 68 7 48 210 121

2001 OAK 83 1139 13.7 40 9 62 298 125

2002 OAK 92 1211 13.2 75 7 59 386 150

2003 OAK 63 869 13.8 47 2 44 222 124

2004 OAK 5 67 13.4 18 0 4 4 15

2004 SEA 25 362 14.5 56 3 17 91 49

2004 Total 30 429 14.3 56 3 21 95 64

 

[hitman2]

Not long I hope.

 

[David Yudkin]

If the question is really can Harrison catch Rice in terms of career totals, here's how they stack up. Through age 34, here's where they stand . . .

Rice: 1050-16377-154

Harrison: 1022-13697-122

Rice went on for an additional 499-6518-43 from age 35 on.

So going forward Harrison would need 527-9198-75 to equal Rice. If Harrsion played 6 more years (through age 40), he'd need to average 88-1533-13 to catch him.

IMO, not gonna happen unless he plays at an elite level until he is well past 40, and I personally don't see it happening.

 

[cstu]

I expect a couple more good seasons but last season reminds of 2004 Curtis Martin. The big positive for Harrison is that he has the best QB in the game so if he's healthy he should produce. Realistically, I expect him to slip into the top 10 this season and then start to drop down into the 10-20 range, which I think he could play at for a few more years. Even Rice though had a couple years where he dropped off (#38 and #25) before having two more good seasons (#10 and #11).

1 Cris Carter wr 2000 35 14 16 96 1274 13.27 9 181.402 Tim Brown wr 2001 35 14 16 91 1165 12.80 9 174.403 Jerry Rice wr 1998 36 14 16 82 1157 14.11 9 169.704 Jerry Rice wr 2001 39 17 16 83 1139 13.72 9 167.905 Irving Fryar wr 1997 35 14 16 86 1316 15.30 6 167.606 Jerry Rice wr 2002 40 18 16 92 1211 13.16 7 165.107 James Lofton wr 1991 35 14 15 57 1072 18.81 8 155.208 Jimmy Smith wr 2004 35 13 16 74 1172 15.84 6 153.209 Joey Galloway wr 2006 35 12 16 62 1057 17.05 7 148.6010 Rod Smith wr 2005 35 11 16 85 1105 13.00 6 147.2011 Keenan McCardell wr 2005 35 14 16 70 917 13.10 9 145.9012 Jimmy Smith wr 2005 36 14 16 70 1023 14.61 6 138.3013 Charlie Joiner wr 1985 38 17 16 59 932 15.80 7 135.2014 Drew Hill wr 1991 35 13 16 90 1109 12.32 4 135.0015 Cris Carter wr 2001 36 15 16 73 871 11.93 6 123.5016 Jerry Rice wr 2000 38 16 16 75 805 10.73 7 122.3017 Charlie Joiner wr 1984 37 16 16 61 793 13.00 6 115.3018 James Lofton wr 1992 36 15 16 51 786 15.41 6 114.6019 Jerry Rice wr 1999 37 15 16 67 830 12.39 5 114.3020 Charlie Joiner wr 1983 36 15 16 65 960 14.77 3 114.0021 Henry Ellard wr 1996 35 14 16 52 1014 19.50 2 113.4022 Tim Brown wr 2002 36 15 16 81 930 11.48 2 106.9023 Cliff Branch wr 1983 35 12 12 39 696 17.85 5 101.6024 Pete Retzlaff wr 1966 35 11 14 40 653 16.32 6 101.3025 Jerry Rice wr 2003 41 19 16 63 869 13.79 2 98.90

 

[Lord of the Rings]

Begs the question from a fantasty standpoint: What's Harrison's value in a dynasty format?

I have been trying to trade him the last couple years in several leagues. I don't think I was asking a king's ransom, but I kept getting responses like: "He's old", "He's wearing down", "His numbers will drop", "He's at the end of his career" etc, etc, blah, blah, blah. Meanwhile, he keeps producing and I continue to sniff the championship each year. I've resigned myself to ride him until he retires, because no one seems to want to add this top 10-15 receiver to their squad, at least for fair value.

So back to my original question. In a PPR dynasty league, what would be fair value for Harrison? What would you give? What would you take?

Sorry if this takes this thread in a different direction than originally intended.

 

[Scarpaggio]

Begs the question from a fantasty standpoint: What's Harrison's value in a dynasty format?I have been trying to trade him the last couple years in several leagues. I don't think I was asking a king's ransom, but I kept getting responses like: "He's old", "He's wearing down", "His numbers will drop", "He's at the end of his career" etc, etc, blah, blah, blah. Meanwhile, he keeps producing and I continue to sniff the championship each year. I've resigned myself to ride him until he retires, because no one seems to want to add this top 10-15 receiver to their squad, at least for fair value.So back to my original question. In a PPR dynasty league, what would be fair value for Harrison? What would you give? What would you take?Sorry if this takes this thread in a different direction than originally intended.

I recently offered up the 1.3 rookie pick for him and was turned down. I won't give more than that.

 

[tribecalledjeff]

Begs the question from a fantasty standpoint: What's Harrison's value in a dynasty format?I have been trying to trade him the last couple years in several leagues. I don't think I was asking a king's ransom, but I kept getting responses like: "He's old", "He's wearing down", "His numbers will drop", "He's at the end of his career" etc, etc, blah, blah, blah. Meanwhile, he keeps producing and I continue to sniff the championship each year. I've resigned myself to ride him until he retires, because no one seems to want to add this top 10-15 receiver to their squad, at least for fair value.So back to my original question. In a PPR dynasty league, what would be fair value for Harrison? What would you give? What would you take?Sorry if this takes this thread in a different direction than originally intended.

I recently offered up the 1.3 rookie pick for him and was turned down. I won't give more than that.

I also have Harrison in dynasty, and I think an easier way to ask this question is where would you draft him in a startup dynasty right now. If he were there in the middle of the 3rd I'd have a hard time passing on him. That puts him right around guys like Evans, Javon, Housh, Ward.I'm pretty sure that the owners of those players wouldn't trade them straight up for Harrison, but at the same time agree that's about where he should go in a startup. Part of that is what your dynasty plan is - the guy who wants to win NOW would obviously be more willing to trade for him. But I also think part of that is guys overvaluing future years and overvaluing their own players. If you knew Harrison would finish #3 this year, #8 next year, and #15 the next two years, would you prefer him or a guy who would be #10 for the next 6 years? I'd take Harrison in that scenario for sure. I think some people look too far into the future.

 

[Tag]

Begs the question from a fantasty standpoint: What's Harrison's value in a dynasty format?I have been trying to trade him the last couple years in several leagues. I don't think I was asking a king's ransom, but I kept getting responses like: "He's old", "He's wearing down", "His numbers will drop", "He's at the end of his career" etc, etc, blah, blah, blah. Meanwhile, he keeps producing and I continue to sniff the championship each year. I've resigned myself to ride him until he retires, because no one seems to want to add this top 10-15 receiver to their squad, at least for fair value.So back to my original question. In a PPR dynasty league, what would be fair value for Harrison? What would you give? What would you take?Sorry if this takes this thread in a different direction than originally intended.

I recently offered up the 1.3 rookie pick for him and was turned down. I won't give more than that.

I also have Harrison in dynasty, and I think an easier way to ask this question is where would you draft him in a startup dynasty right now. If he were there in the middle of the 3rd I'd have a hard time passing on him. That puts him right around guys like Evans, Javon, Housh, Ward.I'm pretty sure that the owners of those players wouldn't trade them straight up for Harrison, but at the same time agree that's about where he should go in a startup. Part of that is what your dynasty plan is - the guy who wants to win NOW would obviously be more willing to trade for him. But I also think part of that is guys overvaluing future years and overvaluing their own players. If you knew Harrison would finish #3 this year, #8 next year, and #15 the next two years, would you prefer him or a guy who would be #10 for the next 6 years? I'd take Harrison in that scenario for sure. I think some people look too far into the future.

The problem with Harrison is he doesnt have any trade value. I got him in an initial 12 team dynasty draft 2 years ago late 3rd round. I'm betting he will go somewhere in rd4 today. I have two 14 team dynasty drafts starting within the next month and I expect him to fall in rd4. If you have harrison on a dynasty team (which i no longer have) i would just hold onto him for the next 2 or 3 years until he calls it quits, i think thats the smart play.

 

[BigRed]

If the question is really can Harrison catch Rice in terms of career totals, here's how they stack up. Through age 34, here's where they stand . . .Rice: 1050-16377-154 Harrison: 1022-13697-122 Rice went on for an additional 499-6518-43 from age 35 on.So going forward Harrison would need 527-9198-75 to equal Rice. If Harrsion played 6 more years (through age 40), he'd need to average 88-1533-13 to catch him.IMO, not gonna happen unless he plays at an elite level until he is well past 40, and I personally don't see it happening.

I didn't think it was anyway but you just made it clear how unlikely it is. ie the Lions have a better shot of winning the SB.IMO he's got 1, maybe 2 more top producing seasons left and Wayne is a whisker away from becoming "1a."

 

[Will]

Begs the question from a fantasty standpoint: What's Harrison's value in a dynasty format?I have been trying to trade him the last couple years in several leagues. I don't think I was asking a king's ransom, but I kept getting responses like: "He's old", "He's wearing down", "His numbers will drop", "He's at the end of his career" etc, etc, blah, blah, blah. Meanwhile, he keeps producing and I continue to sniff the championship each year. I've resigned myself to ride him until he retires, because no one seems to want to add this top 10-15 receiver to their squad, at least for fair value.So back to my original question. In a PPR dynasty league, what would be fair value for Harrison? What would you give? What would you take?Sorry if this takes this thread in a different direction than originally intended.

I recently offered up the 1.3 rookie pick for him and was turned down. I won't give more than that.

I recently offered marvin for the 1.02 and was laughed at. Now he is picking 1.2 for a reason, and his team needs to rebuild, so Marvin really does not make a lot of sense for him.I think your best bet for trading Marvin will be once the season begins, to the team that has a shot at the playoffs but is light at WR. You might get something close to value in that situation, more likely you'll get future picks and prospects because he needs to keep his starters for the run.If your team is competitive now I say hold him until he finally retires. I really think he has a minimum of 3 years left at the top 10 level. Then it will be his decision to hang around at a less productive level or retire. He is in probably the best situation a WR could find himself. He is on a great offense, with a hall of fame QB that relies heavily on him. The rapport between Manning and Harrison is special. Everyone keeps saying this is the year Wayne surpasses Marvin. Been hearing it for 5 years. Ain't happened yet, don't bet your house on it this year. When the game is tight, when the Colts need to make a play, Manning looks for Marvin.Now if you are rebuilding, you are in a tough spot. Most guys let age play too big a role in Dynasty but it's so prevalent that it's a factor in determining worth. You'll probably get the bad end of a deal when trading marvin and could watch him join another team that goes deep into the playoffs.Tough spot but if I was rebuilding I'd hold him one more year if I couldn't get fair value cuz I think he has a lot of production left this year and next year at least.

 

[Will]

If the question is really can Harrison catch Rice in terms of career totals, here's how they stack up. Through age 34, here's where they stand . . .Rice: 1050-16377-154 Harrison: 1022-13697-122 Rice went on for an additional 499-6518-43 from age 35 on.So going forward Harrison would need 527-9198-75 to equal Rice. If Harrsion played 6 more years (through age 40), he'd need to average 88-1533-13 to catch him.IMO, not gonna happen unless he plays at an elite level until he is well past 40, and I personally don't see it happening.

I didn't think it was anyway but you just made it clear how unlikely it is. ie the Lions have a better shot of winning the SB.IMO he's got 1, maybe 2 more top producing seasons left and Wayne is a whisker away from becoming "1a."

I said this in the post above, but Wayne has been a whisker away from surpassing Marvin for 5 years now. That must be a ZZ Top whisker.

 

[Weapon of Mass Instruction]

Supposedly he should consult a doctor if he keeps it up for more than 4 hours.

 

[Skipdog77]

IMO he's got 1, maybe 2 more top producing seasons left and Wayne is a whisker away from becoming "1a."

And out of curiosity, how many years in a row now have you been thinking this ?

 

[Snotbubbles]

I'm curious about this.

I'm in a contract league and I was offered a trade of Harrison for 4 years for Stephen Jackson for 1 year.

I turned it down because I'm in the camp that last season was the peak before the decline for Marv. For me Harrison presents 2 problems. The first, how much of a decline will he see due to age. The second, how much longer does he want to play. I mean he's accomplished everything he possibly could in the sport.

 

[BigRed]

IMO he's got 1, maybe 2 more top producing seasons left and Wayne is a whisker away from becoming "1a."

And out of curiosity, how many years in a row now have you been thinking this ?

This is only the 2d. Sooner or later I'll be right.

 

[mggoilers]

Going into the 4th year of owning Marvin, and tried to trade him the last 2 years in the offseason. His age worries me, but he's very productive. Just looking at my roster, I'm trying to position Marvin this year so he is my WR3...makes me feel better since I can't get good value in a trade.

So he went from my clear cut #1, to #2 WR last year producing like a WR1...and this year I'm making a trade to slot him at WR3 behind CJ and Javon...of course, he's libel to out produce them all.

I'm sticking with him till he gets killed on a quick slant.

 

[stevegamer]

I had been trying to acquire Harrison in a dynasty, and am going to inquire again this season.

If you're in a league where he's on a rebuilding team - I'd make the move for him now, offering a 2nd or a 3rd round pick.

Picks are chancy, and they can bust. Harrison is not going to bust. The only real worry is injury and retirement - I see him being a solid player for 2-3 more years of WR1/2 production.

Considering how long ago Wayne was supposed to pass Harrison by, Marvin should be lapped by now.

He's precisely the kind of guy I'd be targetting - vet who can seriously help.

 

[stevegamer]

IMO he's got 1, maybe 2 more top producing seasons left and Wayne is a whisker away from becoming "1a."

And out of curiosity, how many years in a row now have you been thinking this ?

This is only the 2d. Sooner or later I'll be right.

Not necessarily, Marvin could out-last Wayne. It'd be really odd, but he's already gone well beyond anything normal.

 

[BigRed]

Not necessarily, Marvin could out-last Wayne. It'd be really odd, but he's already gone well beyond anything normal.

Yes he has, but short of injury to Wayne (or a FA/trade move), no way does he outlast the guy. Wayne has 6 yrs on him; that's a lot.

 

[FavreCo]

Could the answer be that he is fueled by a steady diet of Tastykakes?

Harrison smiles sheepishly. "Can't live without them," he confesses. "Got to have my Tastykakes."

This opens the floodgates. The truth pours out. All you receivers out there, put away your protein shakes mid those nutritional supplements and everything you have been taught about the food pyramid and eating five daily portions of fruits and vegetables. Instead, try the Marvin Harrison Miracle Receiver Diet.

 

[stevegamer]

That's what I was primarily referring to - hence the really odd part. You just never know.

 

[stevegamer]

Could the answer be that he is fueled by a steady diet of Tastykakes?Harrison smiles sheepishly. "Can't live without them," he confesses. "Got to have my Tastykakes."This opens the floodgates. The truth pours out. All you receivers out there, put away your protein shakes mid those nutritional supplements and everything you have been taught about the food pyramid and eating five daily portions of fruits and vegetables. Instead, try the Marvin Harrison Miracle Receiver Diet.

This bodes well for me - I've had 2 different kinds today. The new limited edition PB&J Tastykakes are very good. I hope Marvin gets some.

 

[Koya]

This is DEFINATELY the year that Wayne passes him.

Signed,

2004

 

[thayman]

Supposedly he should consult a doctor if he keeps it up for more than 4 hours.

 

[Scarpaggio]

Begs the question from a fantasty standpoint: What's Harrison's value in a dynasty format?I have been trying to trade him the last couple years in several leagues. I don't think I was asking a king's ransom, but I kept getting responses like: "He's old", "He's wearing down", "His numbers will drop", "He's at the end of his career" etc, etc, blah, blah, blah. Meanwhile, he keeps producing and I continue to sniff the championship each year. I've resigned myself to ride him until he retires, because no one seems to want to add this top 10-15 receiver to their squad, at least for fair value.So back to my original question. In a PPR dynasty league, what would be fair value for Harrison? What would you give? What would you take?Sorry if this takes this thread in a different direction than originally intended.

I recently offered up the 1.3 rookie pick for him and was turned down. I won't give more than that.

I recently offered marvin for the 1.02 and was laughed at. Now he is picking 1.2 for a reason, and his team needs to rebuild, so Marvin really does not make a lot of sense for him.I think your best bet for trading Marvin will be once the season begins, to the team that has a shot at the playoffs but is light at WR. You might get something close to value in that situation, more likely you'll get future picks and prospects because he needs to keep his starters for the run.If your team is competitive now I say hold him until he finally retires. I really think he has a minimum of 3 years left at the top 10 level. Then it will be his decision to hang around at a less productive level or retire. He is in probably the best situation a WR could find himself. He is on a great offense, with a hall of fame QB that relies heavily on him. The rapport between Manning and Harrison is special. Everyone keeps saying this is the year Wayne surpasses Marvin. Been hearing it for 5 years. Ain't happened yet, don't bet your house on it this year. When the game is tight, when the Colts need to make a play, Manning looks for Marvin.Now if you are rebuilding, you are in a tough spot. Most guys let age play too big a role in Dynasty but it's so prevalent that it's a factor in determining worth. You'll probably get the bad end of a deal when trading marvin and could watch him join another team that goes deep into the playoffs.Tough spot but if I was rebuilding I'd hold him one more year if I couldn't get fair value cuz I think he has a lot of production left this year and next year at least.

Actually I think I did go back and offer the 1.3 and Brandon Marshall and was turned down but had a counter offer of the 1.3 and Cedric Benson for Harrison. IMO I'm possibly 1 WR away from being a good playoff team and CJ won't be there at 1.3.

 

[fruity pebbles]

I had been trying to acquire Harrison in a dynasty, and am going to inquire again this season.If you're in a league where he's on a rebuilding team - I'd make the move for him now, offering a 2nd or a 3rd round pick. Picks are chancy, and they can bust. Harrison is not going to bust. The only real worry is injury and retirement - I see him being a solid player for 2-3 more years of WR1/2 production.Considering how long ago Wayne was supposed to pass Harrison by, Marvin should be lapped by now.He's precisely the kind of guy I'd be targetting - vet who can seriously help.

Who's going to trade Harrison for a 2nd or 3rd round pick?

 

[pizzatyme]

I think this question will be answered by watching the NFL draft. I mean, in the unlikely event that Ginn Jr. were to fall to the Colts @1.32, I think Marvin has 3 more years of top performance left.

If we draft a WR in the first, then I look for Marvin to retire in 3 years or less, given DY's post above stating he can't likely pass Rice.

Either way, it has truly been an honor to get to watch this gentleman of the game in person for so many terrific years!

-Colts Fan

 

[Sabertooth]

25 seconds...then he passes out.

 

[llogilvie]

I am in a 3 team keeper league and have have to choose between Harrison and Fitz as WR keepers. Im struggling with this one as obviously age is on Fitz' side but i truly feel Harrison will be more productive this up-coming year from a fantasy perspective.

 

[Will]

I am in a 3 team keeper league and have have to choose between Harrison and Fitz as WR keepers. Im struggling with this one as obviously age is on Fitz' side but i truly feel Harrison will be more productive this up-coming year from a fantasy perspective.

Now here I would go with Fitz. He could be a keeper for the next 10 years. Harrison, I feel fairly confident in predicting, will not still be at it 10 years from now. I would also think you'd have a much better chance of getting Harrison back in your draft than you would Fitz.

 

[Hairy Snowman]

One thing I wanted to add to this is that players, and WRs specifically, have been playing longer than in years past.

Keenan McCardell is the first that jumps to mind, but I know there are others.

I would wait until I started to see his ar-ss getting bigger before I started talking about decline. Starvin' Marvin stays in terrific shape year-round, so the dropoff may not be as dramatic as people are predicting.

I think Marvin has a chance to play until he is 40.