Matchup Vs Player Ranking (1 Viewer)

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Every week we all go through our own WSIS paces, and I’m sure we all have a process to some degree or another. I’m also pretty sure that some of us use the same or similar processes week to week. 

A big part of my own process is to evaluate player rank, their opponent’s rank vs the [pass/run/catch (slot/outside)] & their matchup.

This year I started thinking about how much weight I assign each of those for a given position & got to wondering about the subject.  

Now before I get too crazy, I’ll say I follow the “never bench your studs” rule. I’m not sitting Gurley because he faces the #1 run defense, for example. 

But when deciding between two studs (or even two players of similar caliber like RB2s), what do you do? 

Let’s say you have  2 QBs of similar production/ranking

QB A faces the 5th ranked pass defense, on a team with a top 5 offense.

QB B faces the 26th ranked pass defense, with a bottom 5 offense. 

Most experts would probably recommend starting QB B in this situation, as they face the lesser pass defense. 

And they may be right. But I’ve often had more success by starting QB A in that situation, as there’s a better chance that my QB will need to throw in a higher scoring game.

in the past I’ve given more weight to matchup rather than looked at the whole situation. This year in one league I’ve got Cam/Luck, and in the other Ryan/Winston. In the Ryan/Winston league I haven’t had to choose yet - but so far I’ve nailed the Newton/Luck decision every week except week 1.  And every single week, Newton has been rated higher than Luck. Sometimes significantly so. 2 weeks ago I went against expert recommendation & netted 20 points in a game I won by 11. 

By looking past the defensive matchup to the “what kind of game do I think this will be”, I’ve been able to make better decisions. Not saying ignore defensive matchup altogether, but I definitely give it much less weight than I have in the past.

With RBs it’s even tougher - if you’ve got a 3-down back they’re usually considered gameflow proof. But so many backs are role-specific now. If I have a 2-down back like Alex Collins in a game against the Saints this week, would I be crezy to start a Peyton Barber over him, knowing Barber will be out there regardless of the score? It’s pretty clear that Collins is the better RB and in a more run-oriented offense. 

Not asking for an answer there - I’ve already set my lineup. I’m just pointing it out as an example. I’m going with Collins because I think he’s the superior back, the Ravens D should keep it close, and the Ravens offense is talented enough to move the chains. But I have a nagging feeling Barber is the better play based on what might happen - CLE run defense isn’t awesome, the Bucs could get up on CLE & run more, and there’s little competition for carries in TB, while Baltimore is kind of a cluster at RB, and at times difficult to predict - especially if the Saints put the Ravens in a hole.

Examples aside, how do YOU evaluate weekly lineup decisions?  

What weighting do you put on matchup vs ranking? 

Do you have a process, or do you just go with the expert rankings week to week? 

Or do you go even deeper & look at PvP matchups (specific WR vs specific DB)  or past performance vs team?

do you look at weather & field conditions?

player performance on the road vs at home?

what someone ate for breakfast pregame?  

how deep do you go? 

I know this was a rambling topic / question but I find this aspect of FFB fascinating & would love to hear your process, with or without specific examples. Just please don’t make this into a WSIS - FBG has a whole forum for that.  

 

[Dizzy]

I also follow the "never bench your studs" (as most do I'm sure)... only exception being maybe extreme weather conditions, ALTHOUGH I remember a certain QB up in New England throwing 6 TDs in a blizzard... so there's that.

I look at the defensive rankings, but also look for false representation; for example Team A ranks 32nd in run defense, but 5th in pass defense... do they truly have an exceptional pass defense, or is the yardage just skewed because teams easily run all over them... OR another perspective, if it''s early enough in the season, did Team A simply have the luxury of facing some pretty weak passing offenses (and/or bad fortune to face some power house rushing offenses).

I guess that's a lengthy way of saying that defensive rankings can be very misleading, unless you really put the effort in to find out WHY they are ranked where they are.

Trying to predict game scripts is fun, but equally difficult... looking at the over/under or predicted outcome, and then trying to decide how each team is most likely to get to that total may shed some light.

I rarely look at expert rankings because; first off there are too many of them... secondly I have been playing/following fantasy football longer than most of them, and lastly... I don't know these guys. No idea what factors could affect their decisions (homer, hot take addict, willingness to go down with the ship, too locked into the NCAA days, other).

When truly on the fence between players, I find the aggregate opinions here in the Shark Pool to be of great help. There may be a true nugget that sends me towards one player over the other... or maybe it's the old "misery loves company" - I may be crashing and burning, but so are others! ?

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I look at the defensive rankings, but also look for false representation; for example Team A ranks 32nd in run defense, but 5th in pass defense... do they truly have an exceptional pass defense, or is the yardage just skewed because teams easily run all over them... OR another perspective, if it''s early enough in the season, did Team A simply have the luxury of facing some pretty weak passing offenses (and/or bad fortune to face some power house rushing offenses).

I guess that's a lengthy way of saying that defensive rankings can be very misleading, unless you really put the effort in to find out WHY they are ranked where they are.

This is an excellent point, and honestly one I’d intended to make in my OP but forgot to include. 

Part of why I discount defensive matchup rankings more and more is because sample size, and opponent quality or style play so heavily into it. 

Any team that’s faced the Rams or Chargers probably looks terrible against the run. Any team that’s faced the Falcons or Saints probably looks terrible against the pass.

and early season rankings are even more worthless since teams have only played a handful of games. 

And unfortunately I think a lot of expert rankings weigh matchups somewhat heavily. 

Read the Rotoworld weekly rankings for example - not to pick on them, because I think they do put in more effort than many to justify why they rank who where, but they do sometimes fall into that trap. And to be fair they’ll also often point out things like sample size & schedule to hedge their bets.

so yeah - great point about matchup difficulty & the flaw of data sets that could skew the rating. 

 

[candian fantasy guy]

A combination of both plus WATCHING the games is how I role. I also subscribe to the never bench your studs theory, probably 99% of the time as long as they are healthy. 

I play in lots of leagues so I find I have no emotions tied to any players, so avg targets or touches and matchups are crucial to me. To bench or not to bench a 3rd round pick after a few struggling weeks is the key to a winning season or a losing one, imo.