Math type question - kind of (1 Viewer)

[TheIronSheik]

For the scenario, let's say there are 5 people. And they are told that they will draw straws to see who has to go on a suicide mission. Shortest straw goes.

At first, my thought was that it was better to go last and let other people pick the straws, as you have a better chance of someone picking the short straw before you even go. But seeing as how my math ability is around an pre-school/kindergarten level, I'm thinking that that may not be the case.

Is there a better advantage to going last? Or, even first? Or does it not matter what order you draw the straws?

 

[Sarnoff]

does not matter

 

[Freelove]

No advantage, unless there's a tell involved.

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

Assuming that the sizes of the straws are unknown to the people drawing them, there's a 1/5 chance that the first person will pick the short straw, a 1/5 chance that the second person will, a 1/5 chance that the third person will, a 1/5 chance that the fourth person will, and a 1/5 chance that the fifth person will.

 

[Kal El]

If you are first, you have a 1 in 5 chance of drawing the short straw, or 20%. That increases to 25%, then 33%, then 50% if the short straw isn't drawn, so it's probably better to go first.

 

[Freelove]

If you are first, you have a 1 in 5 chance of drawing the short straw, or 20%. That increases to 25%, then 33%, then 50% if the short straw isn't drawn, so it's probably better to go first.

You also have to figure in the increasing odds each time that the straw has already been picked, rendering the current pick 0%. The math balances. All slots weigh the same.

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

If you are first, you have a 1 in 5 chance of drawing the short straw, or 20%. That increases to 25%, then 33%, then 50% if the short straw isn't drawn, so it's probably better to go first.

If you go second, there's an 80% chance that the short straw is still there for the picking, and if it is, there's a 25% chance that you'll pick it. Because 80% times 25% is 20%, the second person has the same odds as the first person.

And so on with the third, fourth, and fifth.

 

[Freelove]

1st pick = 1/5 = 20%.

2nd pick = (.2 x 0) + (.8 x (1/4)) = 20%

3rd pick = (.4 x 0) + (.6 x (1/3)) = 20%

etc.

 

[TheIronSheik]

If you are first, you have a 1 in 5 chance of drawing the short straw, or 20%. That increases to 25%, then 33%, then 50% if the short straw isn't drawn, so it's probably better to go first.

If you go second, there's an 80% chance that the short straw is still there for the picking, and if it is, there's a 25% chance that you'll pick it. Because 80% times 25% is 20%, the second person has the same odds as the first person.

And so on with the third, fourth, and fifth.

OK. This makes sense. I knew I was missing something. I saw the same thing Kal El was seeing, but I figured there was something I was missing.

 

[TheIronSheik]

So I guess it all comes down to whether you want to be in control of your own fate, or let someone else decide for you.

 

[Kal El]

If you are first, you have a 1 in 5 chance of drawing the short straw, or 20%. That increases to 25%, then 33%, then 50% if the short straw isn't drawn, so it's probably better to go first.

If you go second, there's an 80% chance that the short straw is still there for the picking, and if it is, there's a 25% chance that you'll pick it. Because 80% times 25% is 20%, the second person has the same odds as the first person.

And so on with the third, fourth, and fifth.

Well, that's what I get for posting without actually checking the figures.

 

[msommer]

So I guess it all comes down to whether you want to be in control of your own fate, or let someone else decide for you.

Do you feel lucky?

Well, do ya?

 

[Freelove]

So I guess it all comes down to whether you want to be in control of your own fate, or let someone else decide for you.

Except that given the practicalities of holding a single short straw among a fistful of longer ones, I'd guess there's probably some intangible mathematical benefit to going first, so you have the best chance to choose one that doesn't look a little wonky, if one does.

 

[Sinn Fein]

So I guess it all comes down to whether you want to be in control of your own fate, or let someone else decide for you.

You're drawing straws to go on a suicide mission, I think you gave up control of your fate a while ago.

 

[jon_mx]

So are you the one who has to fetch the soiled pants out of the duct work?

 

[Kal El]

So are you the one who has to fetch the soiled pants out of the duct work?

I forgot where I hid those.

 

[Ignoramus]

So I guess it all comes down to whether you want to be in control of your own fate, or let someone else decide for you.

You're drawing straws to go on a suicide mission, I think you gave up control of your fate a while ago.

 

[Long Ball Larry]

So I guess it all comes down to whether you want to be in control of your own fate, or let someone else decide for you.

how would you be in control of it?

 

[Long Ball Larry]

So I guess it all comes down to whether you want to be in control of your own fate, or let someone else decide for you.

You're drawing straws to go on a suicide mission, I think you gave up control of your fate a while ago.

And you've been told to do it and have complied.

 

[Guest]

I grab all 5 straws and say, "I'll do it."

That's just the kind of team player I am.

 

[Freelove]

I grab all 5 straws and say, "I'll do it."

That's just the kind of team player I am.

I'll pick after this guy.

 

[TheIronSheik]

So I guess it all comes down to whether you want to be in control of your own fate, or let someone else decide for you.

how would you be in control of it?

You either pick your straw, or wait and hope that someone picks it before it gets to your turn. Seems simple enough.

 

[TheIronSheik]

So I guess it all comes down to whether you want to be in control of your own fate, or let someone else decide for you.

You're drawing straws to go on a suicide mission, I think you gave up control of your fate a while ago.

See above. You can either make the decision of which straw to pick or you can sit back and hope someone before you draws the short straw.

 

[Freelove]

I grab all 5 straws and say, "I'll do it."

That's just the kind of team player I am.

I'll pick after this guy.

I suppose once you go beyond the math, this is another of those practicalities that's worth considering. If you're in any kind of situation where there's even a chance suicide missions might come up, chances are you're trafficking with heroic types. Might up your odds to sit back and hope some would-be John McClane goes all in before you get the chance.

 

[eoMMan]

Did you draw the shortest straw?

 

[TheIronSheik]

Did you draw the shortest straw?

How do you think I broke my leg?

 

[Guest]

Did you draw the shortest straw?

How do you think I broke my leg?

Jumping off your house into the pool?

 

[Long Ball Larry]

So I guess it all comes down to whether you want to be in control of your own fate, or let someone else decide for you.

how would you be in control of it?

You either pick your straw, or wait and hope that someone picks it before it gets to your turn. Seems simple enough.

you have an interesting definition of "control your fate".

 

[butcher boy]

Going last is best. If none of the first four people draw the short straw, you know immediately the correct decision is to just start running.

 

[AAABatteries]

Have I been shown what's behind door #1?

 

[jhib]

Obviously, you choose to pick last and then switch to a different position after he shows you a goat.

 

[TheIronSheik]

So I guess it all comes down to whether you want to be in control of your own fate, or let someone else decide for you.

how would you be in control of it?

You either pick your straw, or wait and hope that someone picks it before it gets to your turn. Seems simple enough.

you have an interesting definition of "control your fate".

I think people are being too literal with the term. Do you guys get your panties in a bunch when the NFL uses that term about teams making the playoffs?

 

[Freelove]

So I guess it all comes down to whether you want to be in control of your own fate, or let someone else decide for you.

how would you be in control of it?

You either pick your straw, or wait and hope that someone picks it before it gets to your turn. Seems simple enough.

you have an interesting definition of "control your fate".

I think people are being too literal with the term. Do you guys get your panties in a bunch when the NFL uses that term about teams making the playoffs?

The losers don't die. If they did, most players would probably control their own fate by being sensible enough not to play.

 

[Ignoramus]

So I guess it all comes down to whether you want to be in control of your own fate, or let someone else decide for you.

how would you be in control of it?

You either pick your straw, or wait and hope that someone picks it before it gets to your turn. Seems simple enough.

you have an interesting definition of "control your fate".

I think people are being too literal with the term. Do you guys get your panties in a bunch when the NFL uses that term about teams making the playoffs?

Most seasons, who goes to the playoffs isn't decided by a random drawing. HTH.

 

[jon_mx]

I would definitely go last. That way you can see how long all the straws were, then you can draw your straw accordingly.

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

I would definitely go last. That way you can see how long all the straws were, then you can draw your straw accordingly.

The real secret is to have a bigger canvas than anyone else.

 

[Short Corner]

I would want to pick first where I am guaranteed to have a 20% chance. On the off chance someone is cheating or recognizes a tell my odds get worse if I pick behind him.

 

[Freelove]

I would probably just announce my retirement.

 

[gianmarco]

Let me get this straight: Some guy nicknamed "Sheik" is talking about some kind of suicide mission and no one else here is concerned?

 

[Freelove]

Let me get this straight: Some guy nicknamed "Sheik" is talking about some kind of suicide mission and no one else here is concerned?

About what?

 

[gianmarco]

Let me get this straight: Some guy nicknamed "Sheik" is talking about some kind of suicide mission and no one else here is concerned?

About what?

The "straw" that broke the "camel's" back.

 

[Fennis]

ask monty hall

 

[Freelove]

Let me get this straight: Some guy nicknamed "Sheik" is talking about some kind of suicide mission and no one else here is concerned?

About what?

The "straw" that broke the "camel's" back.

Are we talking about sex? In my experience, any time there are lots of things I don't understand in quotes, it turns out to be about sex.

 

[17seconds]

The David Sklansky answer would be to go first to 1) avoid being cheated and 2) on the chance you could somehow detect the straw lengths when you touch them

 

[Ilov80s]

Let me get this straight: Some guy nicknamed "Sheik" is talking about some kind of suicide mission and no one else here is concerned?

About what?

The "straw" that broke the "camel's" back.

Are we talking about sex? In my experience, any time there are lots of things I don't understand in quotes, it turns out to be about sex.

Odd considering your handle.

 

[Christo]

If you are first, you have a 1 in 5 chance of drawing the short straw, or 20%. That increases to 25%, then 33%, then 50% if the short straw isn't drawn, so it's probably better to go first.

If you go second, there's an 80% chance that the short straw is still there for the picking, and if it is, there's a 25% chance that you'll pick it. Because 80% times 25% is 20%, the second person has the same odds as the first person.

And so on with the third, fourth, and fifth.

OK. This makes sense. I knew I was missing something. I saw the same thing Kal El was seeing, but I figured there was something I was missing.

You don't even have to know the numbers to know it makes sense. If there was an advantage to picking last drawing straws would have been ruled out as a fair method of choosing a loser a hell of a long time before you were born.

 

[Freelove]

Let me get this straight: Some guy nicknamed "Sheik" is talking about some kind of suicide mission and no one else here is concerned?

About what?

The "straw" that broke the "camel's" back.

Are we talking about sex? In my experience, any time there are lots of things I don't understand in quotes, it turns out to be about sex.

Odd considering your handle.

Fake it till you make it.

 

[McGarnicle]

You definitely want to go second. That guy never draws the short straw. Not sure why.

 

[fantasycurse42]

Better to try your luck on "21st finger is it"... Just be the counter and make sure you aren't a multiple of 3. That is unless some moron throws out 2 fingers, in which case he should automatically lose.

 

[GTBilly]

I always wonder why people continue to speak when it comes to Math after MT.