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MATT FORTE (1 Viewer)
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Breesisdaman
Footballguy
Maybe the see Cutler being more of a factor in the offense *shrugs*
twistd
Footballguy
I don't get it either. A lot of people thought he wouldn't catch as many passes. Well, he has been catching passes in the preseason. He looked terrific in the second preseason game. He caught a TD and rushed for a TD in the third game. I would guess that, although he won't get as many touches, I think he will have a better YPC, and a better average per reception. I think he is a very solid pick in the top five.He's available at 12 now?!?!?I am in Chicago, and I"ve seen NOTHING BUT HIGHLIGHT REEL RUNS this prre-season....someone please explain.Thanks!
I don't get it either. A lot of people thought he wouldn't catch as many passes. Well, he has been catching passes in the preseason. He looked terrific in the second preseason game. He caught a TD and rushed for a TD in the third game. I would guess that, although he won't get as many touches, I think he will have a better YPC, and a better average per reception. I think he is a very solid pick in the top five.He's available at 12 now?!?!?I am in Chicago, and I"ve seen NOTHING BUT HIGHLIGHT REEL RUNS this prre-season....someone please explain.Thanks!
Agreed!I adjusted his projections in DD. Gave him 2 more TD's and about 90 more yards. It bumped him from RB9/10 ish (I forget) to RB4 right ahead of Steven Jackson. That's about where I think he should be.Buckeyedawgs
Footballguy
thats why i dont use the stupid thing. waste of time. AND THEY NEVER BEAT ME YET! 
smackdaddies
Footballguy
My, aren't we specialthats why i dont use the stupid thing. waste of time. AND THEY NEVER BEAT ME YET!
Tom Servo
Nittany Beavers
LOOK AT ME - I DON'T USE THE DD AND I WIN!On topic, he's currently 11th per my league's scoring rules. He won't fall to me at 15.thats why i dont use the stupid thing. waste of time. AND THEY NEVER BEAT ME YET!
I guess I should do a little more investigating with that...I've never used the projection dominator as my DD file.....looks like I have work to do today. Thanks for the good advice. I knew I could count on you sharks!
He kind of has a point. If you rely on a tool someone else built and another persons projections to tell you how to draft.... I don't know. Don't get me wrong, I am a long time subscriber and I used DD the last couple years but this year I decided to draft without it. Time will tell but if I win it wont seem as hollow.Just my $.02My, aren't we specialthats why i dont use the stupid thing. waste of time. AND THEY NEVER BEAT ME YET!
TitusIII
Footballguy
He should be going no later than #4. I think he catches 80 balls this year...Peter King thinks he will get 90. 6-7 dump-offs per game, in addition to a few designed plays due to his excellent hands and you have fantasy gold. Not too mention Chicago gets off the bus running the ball, according to Lovie Smith!
He does have a tough schedule come playoff time, but due to Devin Hester and company, the Bears always seem to have decent field position, so I wouldn't worry too much.
He does have a tough schedule come playoff time, but due to Devin Hester and company, the Bears always seem to have decent field position, so I wouldn't worry too much.
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KellysHeroes
Footballguy
80 to 90 Recs may have been possible w/ orton at QB. But Cutler isn't a dump off type of QB... he wants to sling it down the field.PPR Ranking IMOMJD 1aADP 1bChris Johnson (bad pre-season so far but I bet he'll be in the top 5 of RBs)LT2 After those 4 I would do Turner or Forte... most likey Forte over Turner dues to Recs.
switz
Footballguy
I just don't see the offense flowing through Forte this year, like it did last year. Also, I've been on the fence about this, but I still don't see Forte as a great RB. I'm not trolling, nor do I expect a bunch of replies saying I'm wrong, I'm fully aware I could be.
whitem0nkey
Footballguy
I have him at 4 in a PPR league.
one question I have,
Cutler did not pass a lot to his RBs in Denver, was it because they were bad at catching, was it because cutler does not like to pass to the RB, or was it just the system they were in?
one question I have,
Cutler did not pass a lot to his RBs in Denver, was it because they were bad at catching, was it because cutler does not like to pass to the RB, or was it just the system they were in?
CentralPA
Footballguy
No, that's the way you see it that is the way you see it. I'm looking through Forte owner glasses, I have a lot invested into him. I just think it's encouraging to see a pretty good preseason but the real litmus test is coming up.
TitusIII
Footballguy
Time will tell regarding the number of catches, but I believe Cutler will rely heavily on Forte, Olsen, and Clark during his first season in Chicago. Forte is simply exceptional at finding a small opening and I trust Cutler is much more capable of checking down to him than Orton was. Again, time will tell, but I think 70 receptions is a lock.
The lack of receptions by RB's is Denver is puzzling, but Ron Turner's offense is built around Forte and his skills. If pre-season is any indication, Forte is in line for a monster season. Which makes sense, imo, as it will take Cutler a year or two to learn a new system. Once the Bears acquire the stud #1 WR they so desperately need, things will change. But for 2009, Forte is pretty much the safest bet to put up 1500 yards and 10 TD's not named Adrian.
The lack of receptions by RB's is Denver is puzzling, but Ron Turner's offense is built around Forte and his skills. If pre-season is any indication, Forte is in line for a monster season. Which makes sense, imo, as it will take Cutler a year or two to learn a new system. Once the Bears acquire the stud #1 WR they so desperately need, things will change. But for 2009, Forte is pretty much the safest bet to put up 1500 yards and 10 TD's not named Adrian.
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In PPR leagues, he's still top-8 and Tomlinson, Gore, Chris Johnson, DeAngelo Williams, and Forte are separated by less than a TD
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joffer
Footballguy
without the tool or without their projections/rankings? there's a difference. i'll always use the tool because it's a great way to track the draft.j3r3m3y said:He kind of has a point. If you rely on a tool someone else built and another persons projections to tell you how to draft.... I don't know. Don't get me wrong, I am a long time subscriber and I used DD the last couple years but this year I decided to draft without it. Time will tell but if I win it wont seem as hollow.Just my $.02smackdaddies said:My, aren't we specialBuckeyedawgs said:thats why i dont use the stupid thing. waste of time. AND THEY NEVER BEAT ME YET!
switz
Footballguy
A few incorrect statements here...Whether Cutler is more capable at check downs is really really debatable. Cutler forces balls he shouldn't, because he doesn't check down that much. And, when he does, Cutler more frequently checks down to his TE than his RBs. Olsen will be a monster.
Orton was very quick in his check downs, and dumped off to Forte even when plays were open down the field. Cutler won't do that.
Also, Turner's offense has been there for 5 years. It doesn't run through Forte, it wasn't designed around Forte, or anything like it. Turner's offense was actually installed to fit Rex Grossman's strengths, but Rex sucked. Still, in his offense, it's possible for an RB to catch 50 balls or so when the QB and WRs suck, 30-40 is more likely though.
Under Turner as OC
'04 Thomas Jones 56 rec (QBs were Quinn, Hutchinson, Krenzel)
'05 Thomas Jones 26 rec (QB Orton)
'06 Thomas Jones 36 rec (QB Grossman)
'07 Adrian Peterson 51 rec (QBs Griese, Grossman)
'08 Matt Forte 63 rec (QB Orton)
Don't be surprised to see Forte's receptions tail off like Jones' did in '05 and '06 from what they were in '04.
Anyway, just wanted to correct the misinformation there.
Man in the yellow hat
Footballguy
Great point. I used it for the first time this year and feel I had one of my better drafts. Not because of the projections that came with it, but because it tracks things very well and helps you identify the value picks the deeper you go in the draft.Heck, it even offers you the flexiblity of entering and weighting your own projections. I find this gives you good balance. If you bump your projections and ranking up against four fbg staffers, seems to me you'd get a very good feel for how guys are being valued.without the tool or without their projections/rankings? there's a difference. i'll always use the tool because it's a great way to track the draft.j3r3m3y said:He kind of has a point. If you rely on a tool someone else built and another persons projections to tell you how to draft.... I don't know. Don't get me wrong, I am a long time subscriber and I used DD the last couple years but this year I decided to draft without it. Time will tell but if I win it wont seem as hollow.Just my $.02smackdaddies said:My, aren't we specialBuckeyedawgs said:thats why i dont use the stupid thing. waste of time. AND THEY NEVER BEAT ME YET!
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TitusIII
Footballguy
Time will tell, but I'd wager a pretty penny the Bears offense flows through Matt Forte this season. Of course, it's simply my opinion, but I wouldn't call it mis-information either. It might be a stretch to say Turner's offense is "built" around Forte, but he is certainly the centerpiece at this point in time. And if Cutler is as good as I think he is, he will find the open Forte(and the man always seems to be open) more often than Orton did last season.I don't want to argue man! I just think Forte should be going a little higher than he is...
switz
Footballguy
Me neither... I understand where you're coming from, just disagreed with a couple things you said, that's all.Forte was going top-4, now he's top-8 or so... if you think he should still be top-4, then he's going too low for you, but hopefully you'll get a shot at him in your drafts if you don't have a top-4 pick now...Always look on the bright side 
Gr00vus
Footballguy
That's a lot of receptions for anyone, let alone an RB. You may want to rethink that. They didn't bring Cutler in to check down 90 times.
he did it on Sunday night. Forte had 4 catches on 5 targets in one half of work.
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renesauz
IBL Representative
without the tool or without their projections/rankings? there's a difference. i'll always use the tool because it's a great way to track the draft.j3r3m3y said:He kind of has a point. If you rely on a tool someone else built and another persons projections to tell you how to draft.... I don't know. Don't get me wrong, I am a long time subscriber and I used DD the last couple years but this year I decided to draft without it. Time will tell but if I win it wont seem as hollow.Just my $.02smackdaddies said:My, aren't we specialBuckeyedawgs said:thats why i dont use the stupid thing. waste of time. AND THEY NEVER BEAT ME YET!
I'm not relying on my own memory, or on MFL ADP lists either. Nobody would argue that you should take the top DD player every time, or even most of the time...but it is still insanely valuable and CONVENIANT in draft.
DoubleG
Footballguy
This.Denver RBs had 43 receptions last year...total...between all of them. Forte had 64 receptions last year. Generally speaking, Cutler is not much of a "dump off/check down" guy - at least not as much as Orton (as a case in point, the Denver RB's have had 16 receptions in 3 preseason games (which at 5.3/game is much closer to Forte's average of 4/game, than the 2.7/game that Cutler threw to Denver RBs last year).
I'm not saying Forte's numbers are going to drop a huge margin, but I wouldn't be shocked if his receiving numbers dropped into the 50s or even up 40s. His total number of touches will also decrease (as per the Bears coaching staff). They simply don't want him to have to carry the load as much as he did last year. Kevin Jones will likely spell him more often than he did last year.
Tanner9919
Footballguy
doesn't Ron Turner use the same exact offense that his brother Norv uses in SD, i.e, LOTS of passes to the TE and to the RB out of the backfield?!why would that all of a sudden change with the appearance of Jay Cutler? I'm not sure why people have this notion that just because Cutler didn't pass to the RB's while in Denver, he won't pass to the RB's while in Chicago either..it makes no sense at all..two different systems.different coaching staffs..different playbook..and Denver shuffled in about 15 different RB's last season, so how was Cutler to get any sort of groove with any one of them..?I do not see any sort of tie-in with Cutler's lack of RB passes in Denver to the same happening in Chicago,esp with Ron Turner calling the shots, and especially with a lack of a true #1 WR..
massraider
Footballguy
Two games with less than 10 points last year--and one was week 17.Incidentally, neither of those single-digit games was vs. the Vikes rush D. Double digit in both games.
I noticed the drop to (wasn't he #4 at one point?). What really surprises me is projecting Forte to get less TDs this season (from 12 to 9) and only 6 rushing TDs. That seems implausible to me. A team with a great passing offense still scores lots of rushing TDs (Arizona scored 14 on the ground last season). The top 5 passing teams averaged 15 rushing TDs.
Lets put it this way- here are the teams that score 10 or less rushing TDs in 08: Det, SF, Sea, OAK, KC, STL, CLE, CIN. IE- the worst teams in the league. If you assume the Bears will not be in the bottom quarter of the league offensively, you have to believe they will score more than 10 rushing TDs. Which you really have to believe Forte will get more than half of those.
Or lets approach it this way- the league average was 14.7 Rushing TDs. Let say the Bears score 15. The Bears fullback scored 2 last season, and 1 in 07. NONE of the other Bears RBs scored at all last season, and the same cast is back. But lets say all the other RBs score 5, just to be safe.
Bears QB's (somehow) scored 5 last season, which is ridiculous. Cutler scored 2 last season, and 1 in 07, so give him 2.
That still leave Forte with 8 rushing TDS, and I think that's being pretty pessimistic. If you feel things are likely to be worse than this, you aren't ranking Forte in your top 10 anyway, right? A healthy Forte's floor is 8. What's his ceiling? Who knows, and that will really depend on the offense in general. He could score 15 rushing tds. That's the rosiest scenario, but it wouldnt shock me. 6 seems way too conservative.
An improved offense should increase Forte's touchdowns (rushing and receiving), not diminish them. This offense is going to be on the field a lot more, and that's good for everybody.
Lets put it this way- here are the teams that score 10 or less rushing TDs in 08: Det, SF, Sea, OAK, KC, STL, CLE, CIN. IE- the worst teams in the league. If you assume the Bears will not be in the bottom quarter of the league offensively, you have to believe they will score more than 10 rushing TDs. Which you really have to believe Forte will get more than half of those.
Or lets approach it this way- the league average was 14.7 Rushing TDs. Let say the Bears score 15. The Bears fullback scored 2 last season, and 1 in 07. NONE of the other Bears RBs scored at all last season, and the same cast is back. But lets say all the other RBs score 5, just to be safe.
Bears QB's (somehow) scored 5 last season, which is ridiculous. Cutler scored 2 last season, and 1 in 07, so give him 2.
That still leave Forte with 8 rushing TDS, and I think that's being pretty pessimistic. If you feel things are likely to be worse than this, you aren't ranking Forte in your top 10 anyway, right? A healthy Forte's floor is 8. What's his ceiling? Who knows, and that will really depend on the offense in general. He could score 15 rushing tds. That's the rosiest scenario, but it wouldnt shock me. 6 seems way too conservative.
An improved offense should increase Forte's touchdowns (rushing and receiving), not diminish them. This offense is going to be on the field a lot more, and that's good for everybody.
Dexter Manley
Footballguy
That's a lot of receptions for anyone, let alone an RB. You may want to rethink that. They didn't bring Cutler in to check down 90 times.
I'll say this about Peter King. I read his MMQB every week. It's very informative.Saying that, I don't think anyone on the planet does less with more quality NFL information, in terms of making projections and predictions, than Peter King. Only a handful of people covering the league have a similar # of quality contacts as King has. Dude is absolutely terrible at using all that information to form his opinions.He's the same guy that told everyone to draft Danny Wuerfell because he was going to put up great #'s in Spurrier's offense.He's the same guy that told everyone Randy Moss was going to score 20+ td's due to Mike Tice's "Randy Ratio."Etc. Etc.Hearing him predict that Forte will catch 90 passes instinctively makes me want to drop him down my board.
msommer
Footballguy
I can't believe I actually remember reading both those predictions...
At least I didn't believe them
DoubleG
Footballguy
A few things I'd suggest may not play out the way you suspect (in order that I think they affect the situation):1) Yes, it's a different offense and coach - but same QB. When he doesn't see his primary option available, his tendancy is to try to either thread the needle (hence the number of INTs last season) or heave it deep (see preseason game #2) - not check down. The fact is, once he drops back to pass, Cutler is simply more aggresive (and more accurate) down the field than Orton. 2) If Turner won't change his offense somewhat, to better suite the players he has, he's an idiot (incidentally, I actually DO think Turner is an idiot - just hoping he's not that dumb). If Seattle had ADP, do you think they'd run more? If the Ravens had Peyton Manning, do you think their pass/run ratio might change? The idea that Turner has "built the offense around Forte" is silly - Forte has been there exactly 1 year. They obviously could modify the offense to take advantage of both of their franchise players.3) Ron Turner may call the play, but ultimately it is Cutler who decides what to call at the line. If you don't think Cutler will occasionally audibilize to let himself be the hero, I'd have to disagree.Don't get me wrong - I think Forte will still be a top 10 fantasy running back. But I wouldn't be suprised to see his numbers dip a little from last year given the fact that they now have another major offensive play maker - and it happens to be the one who gets to decide who gets the ball every play.
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