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Matt Leinart worth the number 2 pick? (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Raiders
- Start date
Jeff Pasquino
Footballguy
In a word, No.Depending on league size and such, QB values vary greatly.
If you need and want Leinart, trade down with someone who covets a RB.
Raiders
Footballguy
I guess I shouldn't have stated it as a question, but more a comment. I think he IS worth the number two pick in that format for several reasons:
1. In a league that starts 2 QB's and awards 6 point TD's, there is demand for QB
2. He's young and super talented.
3. System, D Green + 2 of the best young WR's in the NFL + Edge = stud
4. Opportunity, K Warner is old and has a track record for injuries.
5. Shelf life, the Average Qb can play really well into their mid 30's, not so with RB's
All of this considered, taking someone like M Leinart can be the key to your teams success for the next 10- 12 years, Maroney if he is an animal maybe 0nly 6 and that is with a lot of "if's."
1. In a league that starts 2 QB's and awards 6 point TD's, there is demand for QB
2. He's young and super talented.
3. System, D Green + 2 of the best young WR's in the NFL + Edge = stud
4. Opportunity, K Warner is old and has a track record for injuries.
5. Shelf life, the Average Qb can play really well into their mid 30's, not so with RB's
All of this considered, taking someone like M Leinart can be the key to your teams success for the next 10- 12 years, Maroney if he is an animal maybe 0nly 6 and that is with a lot of "if's."
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ILUVBEER99
Footballguy
In a start 2 QB league there is absolutely nothing wrong or shocking about someone taking Leinart #2.
Most people tend to only consider their leagues requirements and value players accordingly, but i doubt you'd get many in a start 2 QB league that thinks Leinart is a bad pick at #2.
Most people tend to only consider their leagues requirements and value players accordingly, but i doubt you'd get many in a start 2 QB league that thinks Leinart is a bad pick at #2.
sholditch
Footballguy
Why not? I play in a 12-team league that starts 2 QBs, and I am seriously thinking about taking him with the no. 2 pick. First of all, if you start 2 QBs and 2 RBs then I see those positions as equal, as teams typically only have one true starter. IN fact, with all the RBBC possibilities, if you can get a true starter at RB then that is more valid. Trouble is, there aren't any guarunteed starting backs for this year, and really I see only one guarunteed for 07, Lendale White. Both Maroney and DWill should win the job, but only White will have it fall into his lap at the end of this season. Foster is signed for another three years, and if he has a breakout year, then this could devolve into a Benson/Jones situation that will keep owners guessing for two full years (and I am a DWill and White owner). Addai is far from a lock for ever being a full-time starter, and I dont see the Saints dealing Deuce after 06—too big of a cap-hit for most teams, plus he's injury prone. Leinart, however, will definitely take over next year if not this year, and I see him being very productive in AZ. Therefore, if you're comfortable with the RBs you have, take Leinart.
ILoveMyLions
Footballguy
the answer to the question is...it depends.
For those who have not played in a 2 QB system really should not answer the question. They have no idea how screwed you can be if you don't have 2 starting QBs.
It depends on the size of your league, what QBs you have on your team, the scoring setup, who picks in front of you and behind you in the draft (is there a trade down possibility?) and what your starting requirements are for RBs. All of these questions must be answered before an educated answer may be given.
Having said that, if there is a limit on QBs in your league due to teams hording, there are no trade down options, you can only start 2 RBs, etc., then I could see Leinart going #2. I think he's the best QB this year so it's a definite possibility.
For those who have not played in a 2 QB system really should not answer the question. They have no idea how screwed you can be if you don't have 2 starting QBs.
It depends on the size of your league, what QBs you have on your team, the scoring setup, who picks in front of you and behind you in the draft (is there a trade down possibility?) and what your starting requirements are for RBs. All of these questions must be answered before an educated answer may be given.
Having said that, if there is a limit on QBs in your league due to teams hording, there are no trade down options, you can only start 2 RBs, etc., then I could see Leinart going #2. I think he's the best QB this year so it's a definite possibility.
T Man
Footballguy
Again, it depends on a multitude of factors:
1. the number of dynasty players you can keep overall
2. the number of QBs you can have on your roster (some leagues have max. limits)
3. the # of young QBs you have for future years
4. the quality of your RB position
I 2 QB leagues where QBs score 6, RBs are actually more plentiful then QBs because of RBBCs. So taking a solid QB at #2 is not a bad option. I assume you think Bush will go #1.
However, if you are weak at RB or have a good depth at QB (including young QBs), I think Maroney may still be the better bet because of the opportunity to produce this year and in the future.
1. the number of dynasty players you can keep overall
2. the number of QBs you can have on your roster (some leagues have max. limits)
3. the # of young QBs you have for future years
4. the quality of your RB position
I 2 QB leagues where QBs score 6, RBs are actually more plentiful then QBs because of RBBCs. So taking a solid QB at #2 is not a bad option. I assume you think Bush will go #1.
However, if you are weak at RB or have a good depth at QB (including young QBs), I think Maroney may still be the better bet because of the opportunity to produce this year and in the future.
FUBAR
Footballguy
In that format, YES. Abolutely worth that pick.
Leinart is a lot safer pick and has higher upside in that format than any player except Bush. Young should even go around 1.5.
I'm not sold on Williams, Maroney or White as anything special, they might be starting caliber, but Leinart, in Arizona, can be elite. And doesn't have the risk of the others.
Not only is he worth the pick, I think you're making a mistake if you don't take him.
Leinart is a lot safer pick and has higher upside in that format than any player except Bush. Young should even go around 1.5.
I'm not sold on Williams, Maroney or White as anything special, they might be starting caliber, but Leinart, in Arizona, can be elite. And doesn't have the risk of the others.
Not only is he worth the pick, I think you're making a mistake if you don't take him.
M
MLBrandow
Guest
NO!
He'll be a great QB, and probably top 10.... but will he be head and shoulders better in a tier with Manning, or will he belong in that solid 2nd tier where all the other Pro Bowl QBs are.....
I highly doubt he'll be the uber-TD Machine that Manning has become.
if you think a solid #1 QB is worth a stud RB.... then I say go for it.
Me, I'd rather have LenDale White or DeAngelo Williams at 1.2
He'll be a great QB, and probably top 10.... but will he be head and shoulders better in a tier with Manning, or will he belong in that solid 2nd tier where all the other Pro Bowl QBs are.....
I highly doubt he'll be the uber-TD Machine that Manning has become.
if you think a solid #1 QB is worth a stud RB.... then I say go for it.
Me, I'd rather have LenDale White or DeAngelo Williams at 1.2
Adam Sommer
Footballguy
Jeff, Jeff, Jeff....I think this is a solid pick. Reggie Bush will probably go #1 overall in most dynasty leagues, although one where you start 2 QBs and get 6 points per TD, an early QB is not a bad move.
The real question is to determine if Leinart is that QB. Vince Young will most likely get the opportunity to start earlier than Leinart, but I like Leinart's situation much better.
I say this due to the offense that is around him, with a top RB in James and one of the best young WR corps in the league. Plus, their defense is less than sellar, leading to many come from behind games (which means more passing). They also play StLouis and Seattle twice a year, both of whom have high scoring offenses (which typically lead to high scoring games). So, long-term, I like Leinart better. And in the short term (as in this season), Warner is old and has had injuries in recent seasons, so Leinart starting this year is not out of the question.
That being said, this does depend on the make-up of your league (as others have stated). If you start 2 QBs and only 2-3 RB, then this is a good strategy. But if you start 5-6 RBs, then I'd probably take a RB. It just depends on your rules. Assuming you have a more average rulebook (2 QBs, 2-3 RB, 2-3 WR), then I think Leinart is a great pick (after Reggie Bush).
Adam Sommer
Footballguy
In this case, I think Leinart is a fine pick. There were no WR this year that merit that high of a pick. If your RB corps are in good shape and you have a need at QB, then taking a QB would be a smart move.
The key to a rookie draft is not just the player you are drafting, but the team he plays on. With the talent that surrounds Leinart on offense, I think he is the safest bet at QB this year. I subscribe to the theory that no rookie is a sure thing, not even Reggie Bush (but he's the closest you'll get this year), so its all a gamble anyhow.
I would, however, take Reggie Bush if given the chance (regardless of your team or anything else).
Jeff Pasquino
Footballguy
Welcome to the board, Adam. Have we met before?
RBs have more value in MOST formats. In starting 2 QBs, I can appreciate the sentiment in picking a QB early. If you are completely and utterly sold on Leinart, have at him.
I would absolutely try and trade that pick if you were looking to get a QB. Cutler, VY and Leinart are all viable options. Kellen Clemens may even get starts this season.
The point is, without knowing the true details of the league, I would still state that the Top 3-4 RBs are worth more than the QBs. I would at least try and trade down with a team that has a Top 5-6 pick AND has a need at RB. That way you get more value later in the draft (perhaps 1.02 and a 2nd for 1.05 and a later 1st?), where you can get Jay Cutler AND a Norwood, Drew, or Addai (or a 2nd QB).
I see 5-6 potential starting QBs in this draft (the 4 I mentioned and Brodie Croyle, and perhaps a sleeper like Inge Martin or a longer shot like Drew Olson in Baltimore).
The question isn't ACTUAL value - it is PERCEIVED value. If an owner covets Maroney or DeAngelo Williams and will give you value, go for it. You might even get 1.09 and a QB vet in a package deal.
If you are 100% sold on Leinart, enjoy. However I think you need to consider each and every option.
Raider Z
Footballguy
I'm in the EXACT SAME BOAT as you, bro! We start 2 QBs also in our Dynasty League. I have Brunell, Brees, Rivers & A. Walter. My RBs are Droughns, Staley, Arrington (my BUST pick of last year) & Bennett. I REALLY want to take Maroney (with my 1.02 pick) but I need RB help NOW... not later. I'm wanting to take Leinart to replace Brunell when I drop him next year. Decisions, decisions....
Jeff Pasquino
Footballguy
You need RBs, not QBs. Brees and Rivers will cover you for a while.Draft D.Williams (my preference) or Maroney and grab another RB and QB later in your draft.
Brodie Croyle is a likely starter next year in KC, or in 2008.
Adam Sommer
Footballguy
Jeff brings up a great point, and that is you should probably trade down.
The key to do this, though, is judging what the teams with the #3 and later picks (until yours) will draft. If it looks like teams with picks #3-6 all have a great need at QB, then Leinart might be gone by your pick.
But, as I stated before, is Leinart the QB to take?
In rookie drafts, I always like to draft by volume. The more top rookies that you draft, the better your chances of getting a winner.
Drafting rookies is more a a gamble than a redraft of veterans....take 2003 for example (3 full years since the draft alows for better analysis). On average, the first 10 picks in rookie dynasty drafts that year were (in no particular order):
BUST-Charles Rogers
HIT-Byron Leftwich
BUST-Onterrio Smith
HIT-Willis McGahee
HIT-Larry Johnson
BUST-Musa Smith
HIT-Andre Johnson
BUST-Chris Brown
HIT-Carson Palmer
As you can see, of the 10 picks, 4 were busts and 6 were hits. As the draft goes on, the probability of a hit gets even less.
So, the more players you draft early on, the better your chances of a hit player. By trading the #2 down to someone with a RB need, you may be able to get 2 or more early picks in exchange.....increasing your chances of a great hit.
Concerning this year. I really like Kellen Clemons, Brodie Croyle, and Travaris Jackson (as Jeff knows)....all three of these guys can be drafted in the later rounds.
So, you can trade down, and probably draft more then one of those guys.....I would rather have Jackson AND Croyle than just Leinart. Simple gambling: you have two chances instead of one. Plus, IMO they are all just as likely to succeed in the NFL.
Leinart is a solid pick, but he is a bit overrated due to all the press he gets from Paris, partying, where he went to college etc.....Clemons is a very talented QB, Croyle has been impressive in minicamps, as has Jackson. Plus all three are in good situations (older #1 QB with injury risk) and on good teams.
While QB depth is nice this year, after the first 15 or so draft picks, RB depth is not as pretty. If you keep #2 overall, draft a RB. Otherwise trade down, and draft a few QBs and fill your need.
The key to do this, though, is judging what the teams with the #3 and later picks (until yours) will draft. If it looks like teams with picks #3-6 all have a great need at QB, then Leinart might be gone by your pick.
But, as I stated before, is Leinart the QB to take?
In rookie drafts, I always like to draft by volume. The more top rookies that you draft, the better your chances of getting a winner.
Drafting rookies is more a a gamble than a redraft of veterans....take 2003 for example (3 full years since the draft alows for better analysis). On average, the first 10 picks in rookie dynasty drafts that year were (in no particular order):
BUST-Charles Rogers
HIT-Byron Leftwich
BUST-Onterrio Smith
HIT-Willis McGahee
HIT-Larry Johnson
BUST-Musa Smith
HIT-Andre Johnson
BUST-Chris Brown
HIT-Carson Palmer
As you can see, of the 10 picks, 4 were busts and 6 were hits. As the draft goes on, the probability of a hit gets even less.
So, the more players you draft early on, the better your chances of a hit player. By trading the #2 down to someone with a RB need, you may be able to get 2 or more early picks in exchange.....increasing your chances of a great hit.
Concerning this year. I really like Kellen Clemons, Brodie Croyle, and Travaris Jackson (as Jeff knows)....all three of these guys can be drafted in the later rounds.
So, you can trade down, and probably draft more then one of those guys.....I would rather have Jackson AND Croyle than just Leinart. Simple gambling: you have two chances instead of one. Plus, IMO they are all just as likely to succeed in the NFL.
Leinart is a solid pick, but he is a bit overrated due to all the press he gets from Paris, partying, where he went to college etc.....Clemons is a very talented QB, Croyle has been impressive in minicamps, as has Jackson. Plus all three are in good situations (older #1 QB with injury risk) and on good teams.
While QB depth is nice this year, after the first 15 or so draft picks, RB depth is not as pretty. If you keep #2 overall, draft a RB. Otherwise trade down, and draft a few QBs and fill your need.
T Man
Footballguy
With those RBs, if you draft a QB at #2 you are limiting your chances.If you are not sold on Maroney, then trading down and picking up Addai or White may be the way to go. Of the rookies, after Bush, they may have the most opportunity this year. And with those RBs you need help this year.
Life Jeff said, you can always pick up a developmental QB later like Croyle or even the QB Minny drafted (Williams I think) as they are backing up QBs that may retire shortly and should be available in round 2.
In a start 2QB league, it is extremely important to develop good QBs in-house, as starting QBs are in very tight demand. Matt Leinert is the most talented QB that Denny Green has ever had to work with (not including Moon, who was ancient by the time he came to the Vikings), and the WRs are drool-inducing. I say Leinert is a great pick at 1.02, especially if you are reasonably settled at RB.
Dave Baker
Damn glad to meet you
Easy answer. If the league starts two QBs, no question Leinart is a reasonable pick at 1.02.
Whether that actually works for your team or not is a different question and not the one you asked.
Whether that actually works for your team or not is a different question and not the one you asked.
Raiders
Footballguy
Thanks for your reply. However, I disagree with the old addage that 2+2=4. In fantasty football I find that to be seldom true. Example: Last year if you traded the number 1 pick in a rookie draft for say the 4th and 10th what would you have ended up with? R Brown/ Caddy for JJ Arrington, and Troy Williamson? I strongly believe that it is always wise to get the best player available.
To me, in my current 2 QB & 6 point TD system, M Leinart is the 2nd best player in the draft. And it would only make sense to trade that pick if I believed that I could get him a few picks later, and maybe pick up an extra pick in the process.
In the end though, There is NO WAY that I believe that croyle and Jackson come even close to Leinart. Thats like saying A Brooks + C Pennington = P Manning.
M
MLBrandow
Guest
You didn't say it was a 2QB league....
hell yeah take him at 1.2
hell yeah take him at 1.2
Adam Sommer
Footballguy
Interesting, if you consider how this list would have looked 2 years ago, LJ would have been a BUST, Brown a HIT, Smith maybe a HIT.
Maybe I'm wrong, but as a general rule, I'll trade 2 later picks for a top pick. To each their own.
This is why I went back 3 years. As this is a dynasty league, we are looking more long-term than just immediate impact.
To those who say 1 for 2 is a bad deal, I obviously disagree. There are no sure things with rookies, not even Reggie Bush (although Id bet on him).
Quote from another post:
"Example: Last year if you traded the number 1 pick in a rookie draft for say the 4th and 10th what would you have ended up with? R Brown/ Caddy for JJ Arrington, and Troy Williamson? I strongly believe that it is always wise to get the best player available."
Well, its only been one year. Dynasty is "forever," so I think this is a bit short-sighted. Troy Williamson may very well be the #1 WR in Minnesota this year, same for Reggie Brown (another later 1st round pick), and Odell Thurman was also taken late in 1st rounds (of IDP leagues) and he was a stud right away. If Williamson and Brown end up hits after this season or next, well then, it might be worth trading a Caddy for those two if you have a great need a WR and no need at RB. TODAY, that would be an crazy trade, but that is TODAY. We already now that Caddy was a hit, same for R Brown. But at draft time, you don't know that, so you might as well increase your chances at success. The list of busted top picks (especially RBs) goes on forever.
Maybe I'm wrong, but as a general rule, I'll trade 2 later picks for a top pick. To each their own.
This is why I went back 3 years. As this is a dynasty league, we are looking more long-term than just immediate impact.
To those who say 1 for 2 is a bad deal, I obviously disagree. There are no sure things with rookies, not even Reggie Bush (although Id bet on him).
Quote from another post:
"Example: Last year if you traded the number 1 pick in a rookie draft for say the 4th and 10th what would you have ended up with? R Brown/ Caddy for JJ Arrington, and Troy Williamson? I strongly believe that it is always wise to get the best player available."
Well, its only been one year. Dynasty is "forever," so I think this is a bit short-sighted. Troy Williamson may very well be the #1 WR in Minnesota this year, same for Reggie Brown (another later 1st round pick), and Odell Thurman was also taken late in 1st rounds (of IDP leagues) and he was a stud right away. If Williamson and Brown end up hits after this season or next, well then, it might be worth trading a Caddy for those two if you have a great need a WR and no need at RB. TODAY, that would be an crazy trade, but that is TODAY. We already now that Caddy was a hit, same for R Brown. But at draft time, you don't know that, so you might as well increase your chances at success. The list of busted top picks (especially RBs) goes on forever.
i'm a big tarvaris jackson fan, but personally i would much rather have leinart than croyle AND jackson...
the huge draw with leinart is the WRs... our choices like this will be colored by how we view principals... imo leinart has legit skills to be franchise QB... he has everything but a cannon, & lots of QBs have succeeded that didn't necessarily have a top 5-10 arm...
back to the WRs...
#1 in NFL history (combined receptions first TWO seasons) - larry fitzgerald
#1 in NFL history (combined receptions first THREE seasons) - anquan boldin
how many times has a highly touted QB (called by some scouts most pro ready since manning... peyton, not eli) lucked into a situation this favorable? it couldn't have been many... maybe last was when denny green took c-pepp (close to top 10 pick himself... not as touted, cerebral or as much a student of the game as leinart, though obviously far better athlete & physical specimen) to team with randy moss & cris carter...
the huge draw with leinart is the WRs... our choices like this will be colored by how we view principals... imo leinart has legit skills to be franchise QB... he has everything but a cannon, & lots of QBs have succeeded that didn't necessarily have a top 5-10 arm...
back to the WRs...
#1 in NFL history (combined receptions first TWO seasons) - larry fitzgerald
#1 in NFL history (combined receptions first THREE seasons) - anquan boldin
how many times has a highly touted QB (called by some scouts most pro ready since manning... peyton, not eli) lucked into a situation this favorable? it couldn't have been many... maybe last was when denny green took c-pepp (close to top 10 pick himself... not as touted, cerebral or as much a student of the game as leinart, though obviously far better athlete & physical specimen) to team with randy moss & cris carter...
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