Matt Ryan, QB, Atlanta Falcons (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2011 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

With the labor uncertainty, there are more unanswered questions entering the summer than usual. The good news is that gives us some more time to discuss the merits of players without having to react (or overreact) to the smallest bits of news about a slight injury in practice, or coach speak. We'll have plenty of time for that when it comes (we hope).

In the meantime, as always we will post a list of players to be discussed each week. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discuss expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Matt Ryan, QB, Atlanta Falcons

Player Page Link: Matt Ryan Player Page

Each article will include:

[*]Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member

[*]Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads

[*]FBG Projections

[*]Consensus Member Projections

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[*]Focus commentary on the player (or players) in question, and your expectations for said player (or players)

[*]Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"

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While not a requirement, we strongly encourage you to provide your own projections for the player (players):

Projections should include:

[*]For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Attempts, Rush Yards, Rush TDs

[*]For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

[*]For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

Now let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 

[Sabertooth]

Very overrated system QB in my opinion. He doesn't create anything on his own. He's very susceptible to the blitz and his head can be gotten into. Roddy White makes him look a lot better than he really is. He's about on the Eli Manning level.

 

[D.J.]

Ryan is my favorite qb this year. I think he is going to explode with a tuned up high powered offense. I think julio is a difference maker that is.going to put in the work to make an impact this year. I expect the Falcons to throw the ball a lot, especially if Snelling leavea in FA. Turner isnt getting any younger and I think his load will be lightened slightly. If they do not add a decent backup, they will go to the pass more.

I'm not sure about where I.think his stats will be, but I expect him to finish between qb 4 and 6 in most leagues behind peyton, brady, and rogers. I think the nezt "tier" will be brees, rivers and ryan.

 

[Jason Wood]

Very overrated system QB in my opinion. He doesn't create anything on his own. He's very susceptible to the blitz and his head can be gotten into. Roddy White makes him look a lot better than he really is. He's about on the Eli Manning level.

Ryan was actually one of the best QBs in the league when blitzed last year:http://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2011/05/12/beating-the-blitz/

If anything, the way to beat him appears to be to rush 4 and make him pick apart blanket coverage.

 

[fightingillini]

Matt Ryan is a decent, but not great fantasy QB. I think we're overrating his prospects a little due to Julio Jones. Remember, he's still a rookie who is not getting the proper reps due to the lockout. I wouldn't be suprised if he came out of the gate a little slow. ATL will continue to be a very balanced offense with Turner expected to get 300+ carries again this year (Turner is getting old, but doesn't have the mileage that other RBs have at his age), so I don't see the upside in Ryan this year. His ADP is QB8....before Schaub, Roethlisberger and E Manning, which I prefer over Ryan. In fact, I wouldn't be happy with Ryan as my starting QB. Would rather play matchups with a couple of QBs like Flacco, Stafford, Cutler, or Bradford that you can get later.

3600 yards passing, 22 TD, 14 Int

50 yards rushing, 0 TD.

 

[FF Ninja]

The staff has him ranked 8th above the likes of Big Ben and Schaub. I don't see it. His stats were inflated due to a large quantity of passes (he was 6th). After a stellar 7.9 ypa his rookie year, due largely to a potent run game and defenses neglecting the pass, he has put up two seasons in a row with a pedestrian 6.5 ypa. To help illustrate this, the guy who was right behind him in attemps threw for 1000 more yards on 30 less passes. Drafting Matt Ryan at QB8 is a lot like drafting Greg Jennings at WR5. You are drafting a guy right around his ceiling. It's not to say he won't be worth it, but you have to have all the cards fall just right for that to happen. Last year, he threw a ton of passes and had a great TD/INT ratio and yet he still only finished 8th. Had Romo not been injured and Ben missed 4 games, you are likely looking at a 10th place finish. Orton was outpacing him before injury, too. Flacco, who was 1ppg behind Ryan on 5att/gm less, is currently ranked 16th. At least Flacco has improved his ypa every season. The more I look at this, the more I think Ryan is a lock to underperform his ADP.

550 att, 345 comp, 3575 yds, 25 TD, 12 INT

40 rush, 80 yds, 1 TD

 

[bigmiiiiike]

The staff has him ranked 8th above the likes of Big Ben and Schaub. I don't see it. His stats were inflated due to a large quantity of passes (he was 6th). After a stellar 7.9 ypa his rookie year, due largely to a potent run game and defenses neglecting the pass, he has put up two seasons in a row with a pedestrian 6.5 ypa. To help illustrate this, the guy who was right behind him in attemps threw for 1000 more yards on 30 less passes. Drafting Matt Ryan at QB8 is a lot like drafting Greg Jennings at WR5. You are drafting a guy right around his ceiling. It's not to say he won't be worth it, but you have to have all the cards fall just right for that to happen. Last year, he threw a ton of passes and had a great TD/INT ratio and yet he still only finished 8th. Had Romo not been injured and Ben missed 4 games, you are likely looking at a 10th place finish. Orton was outpacing him before injury, too. Flacco, who was 1ppg behind Ryan on 5att/gm less, is currently ranked 16th. At least Flacco has improved his ypa every season. The more I look at this, the more I think Ryan is a lock to underperform his ADP.550 att, 345 comp, 3575 yds, 25 TD, 12 INT 40 rush, 80 yds, 1 TD

+1. If this were Julio's 2nd or 3rd year in the league, and we saw more consistency from a 3rd/4th receiver, I'd buy Ryan's stock, but not for this year (from a redraft perspective at least, and I think he's even getting too much hype in dynasty).

 

[Flying Elvis]

The staff has him ranked 8th above the likes of Big Ben and Schaub. I don't see it. His stats were inflated due to a large quantity of passes (he was 6th). After a stellar 7.9 ypa his rookie year, due largely to a potent run game and defenses neglecting the pass, he has put up two seasons in a row with a pedestrian 6.5 ypa. To help illustrate this, the guy who was right behind him in attemps threw for 1000 more yards on 30 less passes. Drafting Matt Ryan at QB8 is a lot like drafting Greg Jennings at WR5. You are drafting a guy right around his ceiling. It's not to say he won't be worth it, but you have to have all the cards fall just right for that to happen. Last year, he threw a ton of passes and had a great TD/INT ratio and yet he still only finished 8th. Had Romo not been injured and Ben missed 4 games, you are likely looking at a 10th place finish. Orton was outpacing him before injury, too. Flacco, who was 1ppg behind Ryan on 5att/gm less, is currently ranked 16th. At least Flacco has improved his ypa every season. The more I look at this, the more I think Ryan is a lock to underperform his ADP.550 att, 345 comp, 3575 yds, 25 TD, 12 INT 40 rush, 80 yds, 1 TD

He is not making my roster over the likes of Ben or Schaub. He looks to be one year away from greatness, if he even makes it to greatness. I'd love to see it, but I'm not buying it this year, especially with the lockout. Some other team can have him and I'll take my chances with Ben or Schaub (who have consistently gone before Ryan in mocks I've done) and even Cutler / Stafford / Freeman at a much better value.

 

[barker132000]

Im buying. He will take the leap this year imo...id even look for the falcons to grab a free agent wr...te...and rb. They are serious about becoming a gunslingin team and Matt Ryan can sling it. Only qb id tqke over him after the top 5 or 6 are gone is Sam Bradford....in dynasty that is. Sky is the limit for matt ryan....space is the limit for bradford

 

[Sabertooth]

Very overrated system QB in my opinion. He doesn't create anything on his own. He's very susceptible to the blitz and his head can be gotten into. Roddy White makes him look a lot better than he really is. He's about on the Eli Manning level.

Ryan was actually one of the best QBs in the league when blitzed last year:http://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2011/05/12/beating-the-blitz/

If anything, the way to beat him appears to be to rush 4 and make him pick apart blanket coverage.

Ok. He looked horrible against Green Bay. I don't watch all of his games.

 

[ConnSKINS26]

Very overrated system QB in my opinion. He doesn't create anything on his own. He's very susceptible to the blitz and his head can be gotten into. Roddy White makes him look a lot better than he really is. He's about on the Eli Manning level.

Ryan was actually one of the best QBs in the league when blitzed last year:http://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2011/05/12/beating-the-blitz/

If anything, the way to beat him appears to be to rush 4 and make him pick apart blanket coverage.

Ok. He looked horrible against Green Bay. I don't watch all of his games.

Then perhaps you shouldn't make definitive statements that imply that you do. Qualify your comments.

 

[TheDirtyWord]

I think alot of folks are scared off by Matt Ryan right now because of his poor showing in the YPA department these last two seasons. Allow me to present the case for why he's had these struggles.

Based on stats ESPN.com has compiled, the average YAC a team generated (when you look at all NFL players with at least 175 yards receiving) was 5.16 yards. For the Falcons, their YAC figure was 3.75. Only two other teams were below 4.0 YAC (TEN @ 3.98 & ARI @ 3.69). To accentuate this issue, let’s look at where the Falcons primary pass catcher ranked respective of their positions**.

Jason Snelling: 36th of 38 RB’s/FB’s

Tony Gonzalez: 43rd of 43 TE’s.

Harry Douglas: 16th out of 119 WR’s

Roddy White: 90th out of 119 WR’s

Michael Jenkins: 115th out of 119 WR’s

**when you look at all NFL players with at least 175 yards receiving

You can excuse Roddy White’s placement on this list because he is the bellcow of the Falcons passing attack. It’s not uncommon to see #1 WR’s appear at the bottom of this list because of the amount of times the passing game goes through them. Other #1 WR’s to appear in the bottom quartile include Larry Fitzgerald, Chad Ochocinco, Brandon Lloyd, Brandon Marshall, Sidney Rice, Derrick Mason.

When you rank the 32 NFL team based on YAC as a percentage of gross passing yardage, the Falcons ranked 30th (TEN & ARI were #31/32) at 36.35%. The league average was 44.74%.

The big reasons for this were:

1) Roddy White was the only pass catching weapon defenses feared on the Falcons.

2) They have no weapon out of the backfield who could create something. Snelling proved to be a versatile and worthwhile player. But he has no wiggle. And Turner doesn't catch passes.

You start to realize when you look at that list above, how devoid of weapons and playmaking ability the Falcons were. In actuality, the Falcons finished 10th in the NFL in Y@C (Yards at the catch - where the receiver caught the pass in relation to LOS). If you watched the Falcons at all these last two season, they are a Point A-to-Point B passing attack. What Ryan is REALLY good at is taking what the defense gives him. The Falcons would methodically move the ball down the field and put themselves in a position to score. And while certainly not an explosive offense, they finished 5th in the NFL in PPG (25.9).

The issue with the Falcons under Smith/Ryan though is that in order to be an effective offense, they have to score 'their' way. Lots of 10-play drives...keep the opposing offense off the field and dominate the Time of Possession battle. The problem is that when you face offenses that can quick strike (like GB), that puts pressure on your offesne to produce points on every drive. That's why the Falcons paid so much to get Julio Jones. Because any type of downfield passing attack essentially disappeared from their passing attack in the seasons final 8 games (1 completion over 26 yards).

Michael Jenkins has been the Falcons #2 WR for too long. He's a solid run blocker and has come thru with some nice catches in clutch situations over the years. He's also the least physically imposing 6'4 WR I've ever seen play. To give you an idea, at 6'4, you think he'd be a pretty big red zone threat...you know, advantage with that height. Well here are his stats in the red zone these last 3 years:

10 receptions, 58 yards, 1 TD

...and when you look at his production within the opponents 10 yard line going into score, here is what he's produced...

1 reception, 9 yards, 1 TD

When you couple that with his lousy YAC ability, you can see that Ryan didn't have an outlet that allowed him to exploit coverages rolling over to Roddy. While I recognize that Julio is a rookie and will take time to ramp up...it's not out of the question that he can be productive right away. He's in a great situation and he's obviously got the talent. The moment he steps on that field, he's already a much more dangerous player than Jenkins ever dreamt of being. And when you consider that Tony Gonzalez has lost the speed advantage he once had over LB's, he's nothing more than a Heath Miller level TE; a reliable player who comes up big in crucial situations and catches most everything thrown his way...but not a weapon.

Now alot of Falcons fans are thinking that Jacquizz Rodgers can simply slide into the role once occupied by Jerious Norwood. Norwood's injury plagued last two seasons were a very underrated reason why the Falcons explosiveness diminished these last two seasons. But I don't want to place too much on a 4th round rookie. If he catches 20-25 passes, that would be a really solid rookie year for him.

Bottomline: Ryan continues to trend up. I wouldn't draft him over Big Ben (who might be the most underrated QB in FF), but I do think that before long, he will ascend to a statistical production level that would warrant 3rd/4th round consideration in future years. For now, my prediction is...

Prediction: 337 Completions, 529 Attempts, 4001 Passing Yards, 32 TD's 13 INT's; 40 Rushes, 93 Yards, 0 TD's

 

[FF Ninja]

Wait, so you say it is expecting a lot to think a rookie will have a big impact (but not out of the question), yet you have Ryan's ypa going from 6.5 to 7.6? And how is that continuing to trend up? He has gone from 7.9 to 6.5 to 6.5. That is not a trend up unless you are seeing reason for an inverse bell curve to develop...

Awesome avatar, btw.

 

[TheDirtyWord]

Wait, so you say it is expecting a lot to think a rookie will have a big impact (but not out of the question), yet you have Ryan's ypa going from 6.5 to 7.6? And how is that continuing to trend up? He has gone from 7.9 to 6.5 to 6.5. That is not a trend up unless you are seeing reason for an inverse bell curve to develop...Awesome avatar, btw.

I project JJ to be in the 900-950 range as far as yardage production in 2011. His ceiling though eventually is the #1 WR in Atlanta, maybe come 2013-2014.As far as Ryan trending up, yes, he led the Falcons to the #1 seed in the NFC. He threw for a career high in yardage and had a 28/9 TD:INT ratio. His YPA has been down, but almost every other aspect of his game has been up. Perhaps I'm talking more as an NFL QB versus FF QB when I use 'continues'.

 

[B3TD]

The staff has him ranked 8th above the likes of Big Ben and Schaub. I don't see it. His stats were inflated due to a large quantity of passes (he was 6th). After a stellar 7.9 ypa his rookie year, due largely to a potent run game and defenses neglecting the pass, he has put up two seasons in a row with a pedestrian 6.5 ypa. To help illustrate this, the guy who was right behind him in attemps threw for 1000 more yards on 30 less passes. Drafting Matt Ryan at QB8 is a lot like drafting Greg Jennings at WR5. You are drafting a guy right around his ceiling. It's not to say he won't be worth it, but you have to have all the cards fall just right for that to happen. Last year, he threw a ton of passes and had a great TD/INT ratio and yet he still only finished 8th. Had Romo not been injured and Ben missed 4 games, you are likely looking at a 10th place finish. Orton was outpacing him before injury, too. Flacco, who was 1ppg behind Ryan on 5att/gm less, is currently ranked 16th. At least Flacco has improved his ypa every season. The more I look at this, the more I think Ryan is a lock to underperform his ADP.550 att, 345 comp, 3575 yds, 25 TD, 12 INT 40 rush, 80 yds, 1 TD

Wait, so you railed on a guy in another thread for being biased about AJ's potential, but here you're going to argue that every one of Ryan's stats will be worse than last year, despite another year under his belt, finally having an explosive weapon to go along with the top WR last year, and the coaching staff showing far more confidence in handing him the keys to the offense? Who's being biased here again?Ryan's numbers last year were 3700 yards, 28 td's, 9 int's. If you don't think there's plenty of reason to believe he will only build on those numbers in an offense looking to switch to a more balanced attack, then you're not paying attention.

 

[FF Ninja]

He was 6th in passing attempts last year. I'm simply projecting him to have a few less attemps and a more normal TD/INT ratio. I'm not projecting his ypa to decrease. How many guys have maintained a 4:1 TD to INT ratio? It just doesn't seem to happen. So a return to the norm in attempts and TD:INT seems conservative. I had Ryan last year. I've got no bias against him. Just trying to use realistic projections.

The main point of my post was that he had a GREAT year last year and finished QB8. He's currently being drafted at QB8. Just seems like you'd be paying a price that is his ceiling considering had Romo and Orton not been injured and Ben not been suspended that Ryan would have finished as QB11 despite being 6th in passing attempts.

Also, Julio Jones may be a great talent but rookie WRs usually take a while to adapt and the lockout has to be seen as a setback. I'm just hesitant to count JJ as a big plus for Ryan when looking at 2011.

And not to get off topic, but my problem w/that fellow's AJ projections was that he seemed to be basing his projections off of feelings rather than situation. Plus, an example he used to strengthen his point was completely erroneous.

 

[B3TD]

I don't want to get into a discussion about AJG, just thought it was a bit ironic to come in here claiming Ryan has hit his ceiling, which I find to be ALOT more baseless (with all due respect...)

First, I do agree there is little doubt that Ryan's attempts should go down while his YPA increases. Like an above poster said, the Falcons simply moved the chains last year, and despite being near the top in scoring, obviously were lacking explosive plays...

This year that should change, as not only do you add Julio into the mix (who's been the lone rookie to gain praise about his great progress and also route-running), you also get Harry Douglas removed 2 years from the ACL injury, Jacquizz Rodgers to add some more explosion on passing downs, and of course every other WR position gets upgraded with Julio on board, as defenses will have to choose their poison between him, Roddy, Douglas and Tony G. This all adds up to a tremendously better WR corp, even if Julio isn't that productive this year...

Second, I am a Falcons homer, so I can say for sure that the coaching staff does not feel that Ryan is anywhere close to his ceiling, and Julio was a big part of surrounding him with weapons for years to come. No doubt they're expecting him to continue to make big leaps and be given free-reign on a more passing-oriented offense. So while you might see a few more INT's, I simply cannot fathom last year as his ceiling, when he's shown nothing but progress in every area besides ypa (but again we've already addressed why that was the case last year).

Lastly, Ryan's biggest weapon is not his arm (though his accuracy has been quite surprising), it is his head. Like Manning, he's a student of the game, and works harder than anybody to improve... I'm telling you, when they throw that many targets around the field, the kid is going to have a field-day doing what he does best: taking what the defense gives him.

With all of that, I see 4,000 yards as his absolute floor, with tremendous upside if Julio can provide immediate impact.

 

[FF Ninja]

Sorry, I did not mean to imply that last year was his statistical ceiling. Just that QB8 is his ranking ceiling. He was nowhere near QB8 on a ppg basis, so even if his ypa does improve in 2011, which is all I'm talking about (I'm not ruling out that JJ can help him in 2012), it would have to improve substantially to offset the lower attempts that we both expect AND to outproduce the other QBs that should be healthy this year.

I don't mean to pry, but what exactly are your projections? If he falls to 550 attempts (which would still place him 6th relative to last year's QB stats), then he would need his ypa to jump from 6.5 to 7.3 to get to your "floor" of 4,000 yards.

Also, just to be a devil's advocate, we can't just assume it is the WRs fault that their yac is low. If a QB is not leading them properly and they have to slow down or adjust their routes then that is on the QB. So I don't feel totally comfortable with the assumption that the WR yac is what is costing him his ypa numbers and that it will just correct itself with the addition of a talented rookie.

 

[B3TD]

I don't mean to pry, but what exactly are your projections? If he falls to 550 attempts (which would still place him 6th relative to last year's QB stats), then he would need his ypa to jump from 6.5 to 7.3 to get to your "floor" of 4,000 yards.

First off, I had made the mistake last week of criticizing arm-chair projections before I realized they're encouraged in these threads, but to be honest, I don't think there's any way I can say with any certainty what his number of attempts, completions or YPA will be, and I don't really see much value in me doing so... But the things I can say with alot more certainty is that the Falcons passing game should improve along with Matty Ice to where I think he should easily match and surpass last years totals. I don't know where his YPA is going to be, but if the Falcons have more explosive plays, then it stands to reason that it will go up as his attempts go down if you can get the yardage in 1 play rather than 4 or more. Not really sure what else I can predict than it should go up along with his total numbers, so yes, that might mean less attempts, but it also means more productive ones.

Sorry, I did not mean to imply that last year was his statistical ceiling. Just that QB8 is his ranking ceiling. He was nowhere near QB8 on a ppg basis, so even if his ypa does improve in 2011, which is all I'm talking about (I'm not ruling out that JJ can help him in 2012), it would have to improve substantially to offset the lower attempts that we both expect AND to outproduce the other QBs that should be healthy this year

I think you're just digging yourself in a hole with this one, because the only reason I responded in the first place is that you were projecting his totals lower than they are this year. As for whether there will be 8 better QBs this year, who knows, but some are bound to get injured or underperform, so I can only go by what I think he'll do, which is improve in his 4th year with more weapons to be a solid top 10 QB with top 5 upside. Not even his supporters are expecting the world out of him, but there is much reason to see improvement on last years numbers.

Also, just to be a devil's advocate, we can't just assume it is the WRs fault that their yac is low. If a QB is not leading them properly and they have to slow down or adjust their routes then that is on the QB. So I don't feel totally comfortable with the assumption that the WR yac is what is costing him his ypa numbers and that it will just correct itself with the addition of a talented rookie.

I cannot say who's fault it is, because they simply didn't even attempt to go deep very often at all last year (ETA: though if we're talking strictly YAC, there could be alot of reasons for that too, but having multiple targets to draw coverage along with an improving QB should improve that). You could put that on Ryan, the recievers or Mularkey, but I don't expect that to continue with far more explosive potential to surround the improving QB.Sorry, but I think you want to win just to win. Take it from the guys who've watched them, Ryan is ready to break out, or at very least should be worth his mid-round ADP.

 

[FF Ninja]

First off, I had made the mistake last week of criticizing arm-chair projections before I realized they're encouraged in these threads, but to be honest, I don't think there's any way I can say with any certainty what his number of attempts, completions or YPA will be, and I don't really see much value in me doing so...

Nah, I'm actually with you in that I don't think there is a ton of value in projections themselves, but I think the real value lies in that it makes people think twice. It's easy to say, yeah, this guy is a lock for 4,000 yds but then when you sit down and try to make the numbers work it can become obvious that a LOT of cards are going to have to fall his way for that to happen.

think you're just digging yourself in a hole with this one, because the only reason I responded in the first place is that you were projecting his totals lower than they are this year. As for whether there will be 8 better QBs this year, who knows, but some are bound to get injured or underperform, so I can only go by what I think he'll do, which is improve in his 4th year with more weapons to be a solid top 10 QB with top 5 upside. Not even his supporters are expecting the world out of him, but there is much reason to see improvement on last years numbers.

I think you are turning a blind eye to this issue. I get that you expect him to improve, but no one can predict injuries. The best we can do is look at the situations before the season starts. Ryan was 6th in attempts last year AND had a very, very good 4:1 TD:INT and was probably around QB11 or QB12 in ppg. We both expect his attempt to at least decrease a bit, but even if they don't, he'd need a significant improvement just to justify his draft position as QB8. Now if you want to predict injury to three or more guys and predict perfect health for Ryan then that's one thing but I'm not comfortable with that methodology and I don't really think that's what you're doing. You seem to just be saying, he'll be better so he's going to pass other players up.If you'll indulge me, tell me which of these guys you feel Ryan will outperform:Rodgers, Manning, Brady, Brees, Rivers, Romo, Roethlisberger, Schaub, Vick.(Personally, I think Eli and Cutler have a good shot to outperform him as well, and maybe Orton if he goes to Arizona. But I don't want to deviate.)I'm not trying to press you here, just trying to get you think about it from another angle.

Sorry, but I think you want to win just to win. Take it from the guys who've watched them, Ryan is ready to break out, or at very least should be worth his mid-round ADP.

No, that's honestly not the case. I enjoy this discussion. There is no game to "win" here. I'm clearly an Atlanta outsider and at the moment I see no reason to expect Ryan to outperform those guys listed above, but I find your insider opinion interesting and am just looking for you to elaborate a bit and explore different angles.

 

[TheDirtyWord]

I think you are turning a blind eye to this issue. I get that you expect him to improve, but no one can predict injuries. The best we can do is look at the situations before the season starts. Ryan was 6th in attempts last year AND had a very, very good 4:1 TD:INT and was probably around QB11 or QB12 in ppg. We both expect his attempt to at least decrease a bit, but even if they don't, he'd need a significant improvement just to justify his draft position as QB8. Now if you want to predict injury to three or more guys and predict perfect health for Ryan then that's one thing but I'm not comfortable with that methodology and I don't really think that's what you're doing. You seem to just be saying, he'll be better so he's going to pass other players up.If you'll indulge me, tell me which of these guys you feel Ryan will outperform:Rodgers, Manning, Brady, Brees, Rivers, Romo, Roethlisberger, Schaub, Vick.(Personally, I think Eli and Cutler have a good shot to outperform him as well, and maybe Orton if he goes to Arizona. But I don't want to deviate.)I'm not trying to press you here, just trying to get you think about it from another angle.

I actually agree with you to a large extent here. Of the 9 QB's you listed, I think the QB's he has the best chance of out producing are Schaub/Roethlisberger...and even then, he'll have to have his best year to do that whereas Schaub/BB have had big seasons already (this is obviously barring injuries to all). What I would say though is this. I've predicted Ryan for a 4000/32/13 season. If that gets him a ranking at the QB8-10 range, then you may be more inclined to wait to draft your QB versus feeling pressure in Rounds 3-5.I had brought up YAC in my analysis because that figure was pathetically low for the Falcons and a major reason for that had to do with personnel, which they've made significant moves to rectify both in the short and long term. Consider that the league average for YAC was 1691 yards, the Falcons fell 337 yards short of that. With a league average YAC, Ryan's YPA increases to 7.1. My advice would not be to overdraft Ryan, but to feel more confident that you can acquire a potentially very productive QB in the mid rounds in 2011. Compared with last year when it seemed that the FF Community was targeting an elite 7 QB's necessitating the use of a high draft pick not to be shut out of that level, I think this year presents a different picture at the QB position because of a guy like Ryan.

 

[Sudoku_in_the_Bathtub]

4000 Passing Yards, 31 TD's 12 INT's

Love 2 offensive draft pieces they added (Jones & Rodgers) to an offense that really needed more playmaker upgrades to take another step.

 

[sihaokills]

I like Big Ben, Bradford, and Freeman over Ryan

 

[Grahamburn]

Any new thoughts on Ryan after week 1 of the preseason? It looks like Julio Jones is going to be involved early and often. I also read in the FBGs email that Atlanta will be looking to go down the field much more this season.

After missing on his first four attempts in Friday's preseason opener, Ryan settled in and completed his next six throws, finishing his three series against the Dolphins 6-of-10 for 90 yards and a touchdown.After shaking off the slow start, Ryan showed why he was a Pro Bowler in 2010. He took quick advantage of his new toy, Julio Jones, completing two passes to him for 43 yards, and then threw a beautiful dart on a crossing route to Harry Douglas for a 20-yard score. If this small sample says anything, it's that Atlanta could be shifting towards more of a passing offense, and with their weapons, it could be one of the top aerial attacks in the league.(Rotowire.com)

Ryan will be a pretty nice value play at QB if he falls into the Eli area.