Matt Schaub, QB, Houston Texans (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2011 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

With the labor uncertainty, there are more unanswered questions entering the summer than usual. The good news is that gives us some more time to discuss the merits of players without having to react (or overreact) to the smallest bits of news about a slight injury in practice, or coach speak. We'll have plenty of time for that when it comes (we hope).

In the meantime, as always we will post a list of players to be discussed each week. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discuss expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Matt Schaub, QB, Houston Texans

Player Page Link: Matt Schaub Player Page

Each article will include:

[*]Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member

[*]Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads

[*]FBG Projections

[*]Consensus Member Projections

The Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

[*]Focus commentary on the player (or players) in question, and your expectations for said player (or players)

[*]Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"

[*]Avoid redundancies or ... this should be about incremental analysis or debate

While not a requirement, we strongly encourage you to provide your own projections for the player (players):

Projections should include:

[*]For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Attempts, Rush Yards, Rush TDs

[*]For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

[*]For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

Now let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 

[FF Ninja]

Schaub regressed a bit last year, posting his worst ypa as a Texan with 7.6, but that is directly related to his decrease in completion percentage (his yards per completion remained right at 12). This can be expected to rebound, but already at QB8 he does present value, just not much. Realistically, his ceiling was his QB4 ranking in 2009. To break that he'll need to bump his TD production to the mid-30s. But given the discovery of a running game and the hope that Wade can improve the defense, I expect his attempts to decrease a bit this year.

550 att, 365 comp, 4400 yds, 25 TD, 12 INT

25 rush, 50 yds, 0 TD

Edit: typo

 

[johnadams]

Schaub regressed a bit last year, posting his worst ypa as a Texan with 7.6, but that is directly related to his decrease in completion percentage (his yards per completion remained right at 12). This can be expected to rebound, but already at QB8 he does present value, just not much. Realistically, his ceiling was his QB4 ranking in 2009. To break that he'll need to bump his TD production to the mid-30s. But given the discovery of a running game and the hope that Wade can improve the defense, I expect his attempts to decrease a bit this year.550 att, 365 comp, 4400 yds, 25 TD, 12 INT25 rush, 50 yds, 0 TDEdit: typo

Agreed that we've seen Shaub's ceiling in 2009. However, he seems to be falling under the radar right now with trendier picks getting a lot more attention and I'd be happy getting a falling Shaub in round seven if he falls there as my QB1.

 

[Jason Wood]

Schaub is one of those guys that appears ripe for the taking toward the end of the QB1s. The question a lot of owners will have to ask is whether Schaub is the better option if you wait than the likes of Matt Ryan or Josh Freeman or Sam Bradford or Jay Cutler...in other words, is Schaub the shark play for those folks who insist in waiting to take their starting QB last?

 

[rzrback77]

I am cautious going forward with Matt Schaub as I believe that the Texans are improving their defense, although with little off-season to practice it may be rough early in 2011. I really like Phillips leading the defense, especially in Houston where he has had such success. The Texans really improved their ability to run the ball last year and I am a firm believer in Arian Foster as well. For each of these reasons, I am not expecting a rebound year for Schaub and I really think that the Texans turn the corner as a team and find themselves in the position of being ahead in the second half and needing to run the ball and the clock.

Schaub's attempts the past two seasons have been similar, 583 in 09 falling to 574 last year. I think that this number will fall again and likely further down in the vicinity of 520. His completion percentage will probably be similat, in the 63.0% range. I see him using the RBs (especially Foster) and the TE Daniels a lot more and the WRs besides AJ losing opportunities.

Matt Schaub 16 gms 328 out of 520 63.0% for 3744 yards 7.2 ypa 24 TDs and 8 ints with 60 yards rushing and no TDs

Responding to Jason, I like several other options ahead of Schaub as you reach the bottom of the QB 1s.

 

[FF Ninja]

While I agree that his attempts will decrease this year, I can't imagine his ypa drops to 7.2 AND his completion percentage drops to 63.0%. In his four years with the Texans, Schaub has had the following progression (ypa/comp%): 66.4/7.8, 66.1/8.0, 67.9/8.2, 63.6/7.6. All signs point to last year being a down year, but you are projecting an even bigger downturn.

It is a rather minor bone to pick as I avoided Schaub last year due to similar expectations of lower attempts and too high a price (~QB5?) and I won't be targeting him at what is now a QB8 ADP, but he should yield better performance than 63% and 7.2 ypa for the person that drafts him there. I don't think he'll provide bad value as QB8, but as long as Ben is going after him, I'll be waiting on Ben. If Schaub slips to QB10 later in the preseason for some reason then it is back on. I think he's a lock for 4k yds and a great guy to pair with an upside guy like Cutler.

 

[bigmiiiiike]

What I'm most curious about, and where the $$$ will be made on predicting Schaub's #s, comes in gauging the offensive philosophy of the Texans. Under Kyle Shanahan, the Texans passed and passed and passed, and then passed some more. Shanahan departs for Washington, and what do the Skins do? Pass and pass and pass some more (at least with McNabb under center). And the Texans turned into a running team, despite the fact that they had a terrible defense, and secondary especially.

Schaub has shown he can be productive in a pass happy system. We haven't seen him operate with a Brady or Big Ben like efficiency in a run-first system, and I'm not sure that we will. While I agree that he can rebound if the Texans let him chuck it, I think this may be Arian Foster's team, and the focus will be on shoring up that defense and running it down teams' throats.

3800 yards, 25 TDs

Not bad #s, but not enough upside for me to see him standing out significantly to justify his ADP over the likes of Big Ben, Freeman, Stafford, Matt Ryan, etc.

 

[FF Ninja]

What I'm most curious about, and where the $$$ will be made on predicting Schaub's #s, comes in gauging the offensive philosophy of the Texans. Under Kyle Shanahan, the Texans passed and passed and passed, and then passed some more. Shanahan departs for Washington, and what do the Skins do? Pass and pass and pass some more (at least with McNabb under center). And the Texans turned into a running team, despite the fact that they had a terrible defense, and secondary especially. Schaub has shown he can be productive in a pass happy system. We haven't seen him operate with a Brady or Big Ben like efficiency in a run-first system, and I'm not sure that we will. While I agree that he can rebound if the Texans let him chuck it, I think this may be Arian Foster's team, and the focus will be on shoring up that defense and running it down teams' throats. 3800 yards, 25 TDsNot bad #s, but not enough upside for me to see him standing out significantly to justify his ADP over the likes of Big Ben, Freeman, Stafford, Matt Ryan, etc.

Kyle Shanahan was a Kubiak puppet. I wouldn't read into any tendencies from the Houston and Washington stints. He did what Kubiak told him to do here and he did what his dad told him to do in Washington.And I think you might be overstating this change from a pass happy system to a running team. In 2009, there were 592 passes and 365 RB rushes. In 2010, there were 574 passes and 396 RB rushes. This increase in rushes is probably due to the fact that the running game was finally viable (3.7 ypc in 2009 vs. 5.1 ypc in 2010). I have no doubt that the Texans would love to run the ball more in 2011, but to expect Schaub's passing totals to dip from 4770 and 4369 the last two years to 3800 yards seems a bit drastic. The guy has a career 7.8 ypa. He only needs 512 passes (32/gm) to hit 4k yards at that pace. With a healthy AJ and Owen Daniels AND the threat of a running game, I expect his ypa to once again be above 8.0 in 2011.