Miami Dolphins 11-5...2008 AFC East Champions! (1 Viewer)

[SeniorVBDStudent]

I'm pretty sure by 4pm, I'll be rooting for the Dolphins.

Are you convinced that the Ravens are a lock to beat the Jags?

 

[Sulla]

Amazing turnaround for the Fins.

Surely Sparano has the Coach of the Year award locked up, right?

 

[Reaper]

Ok, I'm gaining a little more hope back as the week plays out... And as Smackdown told me last week, Hope is good.

Heard a lot of interviews with players - I think that's where you get the pulse of a team - It's easy to see a team play like crap and assume the locker room is a disaster. People did that last year claiming Mangini lost the locker room when anyone who saw and heard player interviews knew there was a different feeling with that group...

Anyway - They sound confident. And HECK, they prepared for Miami LAST WEEK.

I also think Buffalo can take The Pats. Not sure Jax has a shot at all in Balt though.

 

[=Smackdown=]

Ok, I'm gaining a little more hope back as the week plays out... And as Smackdown told me last week, Hope is good.

There we go - I knew you had it in you.Like a battered woman who constantly goes back to her abusive husband there is NO quit in Jets fans. I like this "hopeful Reaper" much more than "didn't care anymore Reaper" the past few weeks.

I guess the Tex singing by the Yankees has put you in a better mood?

Going to the game this Sunday Reaper?

 

[Reaper]

Ok, I'm gaining a little more hope back as the week plays out... And as Smackdown told me last week, Hope is good.

There we go - I knew you had it in you.Like a battered woman who constantly goes back to her abusive husband there is NO quit in Jets fans. I like this "hopeful Reaper" much more than "didn't care anymore Reaper" the past few weeks.

I guess the Tex singing by the Yankees has put you in a better mood?

Going to the game this Sunday Reaper?

Got room in the car?

Lets see how the weekend plays out - I have the Inlaws over from Christmas till Sunday "sometime".

I'll be busting to get of the house come Sunday.

I just know I'm going to get a Brett Favre Jersey for Christmas, I KNOW IT!!!

I'll wear it Sunday, at least.

 

[MDSkinner]

Ok, I'm gaining a little more hope back as the week plays out... And as Smackdown told me last week, Hope is good.

Heard a lot of interviews with players - I think that's where you get the pulse of a team - It's easy to see a team play like crap and assume the locker room is a disaster. People did that last year claiming Mangini lost the locker room when anyone who saw and heard player interviews knew there was a different feeling with that group...

Anyway - They sound confident. And HECK, they prepared for Miami LAST WEEK.

I also think Buffalo can take The Pats. Not sure Jax has a shot at all in Balt though.

As a Bears fan (meaning I have no horse in this race), weird things happen in week 17 when playoffs are on the line. Neither Jax nor Buffalo has anything to play for other than pride and that can be a very dangerous thing. It would not surprise me in the least to see one or both of those teams win.I keep thinking back to a couple years ago when the Chiefs sneaked into the playoffs at 9-7 by winning their game and 2 or 3 other teams losing that were incredibly unlikely (my memory may be off but that is what I recall). No reason that can not happen again, no reason at all.

 

[Reaper]

Ok, I'm gaining a little more hope back as the week plays out... And as Smackdown told me last week, Hope is good.

Heard a lot of interviews with players - I think that's where you get the pulse of a team - It's easy to see a team play like crap and assume the locker room is a disaster. People did that last year claiming Mangini lost the locker room when anyone who saw and heard player interviews knew there was a different feeling with that group...

Anyway - They sound confident. And HECK, they prepared for Miami LAST WEEK.

I also think Buffalo can take The Pats. Not sure Jax has a shot at all in Balt though.

As a Bears fan (meaning I have no horse in this race), weird things happen in week 17 when playoffs are on the line. Neither Jax nor Buffalo has anything to play for other than pride and that can be a very dangerous thing. It would not surprise me in the least to see one or both of those teams win.I keep thinking back to a couple years ago when the Chiefs sneaked into the playoffs at 9-7 by winning their game and 2 or 3 other teams losing that were incredibly unlikely (my memory may be off but that is what I recall). No reason that can not happen again, no reason at all.

AFC east fans know for sure that Buffalo has an OL that can take over a game with the right matchups - They have a RB that can take over a game when he wants and a decent backup.They also just went into Denver one of the toughest places to win and beat a Denver team that was desperate....

Maybe that was their last shot but, I'd think Buffalo would be motivated to beat the Pats at any time

And, I lived in Buffalo - Those fans will show up, there's not much else going on.

 

[MDSkinner]

AFC east fans know for sure that Buffalo has an OL that can take over a game with the right matchups - They have a RB that can take over a game when he wants and a decent backup.They also just went into Denver one of the toughest places to win and beat a Denver team that was desperate.... Maybe that was their last shot but, I'd think Buffalo would be motivated to beat the Pats at any timeAnd, I lived in Buffalo - Those fans will show up, there's not much else going on.

I am with you 100%. Both Jax and Buffalo get to be spoilers this weekend. That is a pretty cool thing and something to build off of for the following year. The Jets still have a very real shot I would say. Perhaps not as good as it should be, but it is far from over.

 

[Chase Stuart]

AFC east fans know for sure that Buffalo has an OL that can take over a game with the right matchups - They have a RB that can take over a game when he wants and a decent backup.

There's optimistic and there's insane.In their last 10 meetings, New England has outscored Buffalo by 213 points and gone 10-0. I think I'm more likely to be the next coach of the Jets than the Bills are to beat the Pats with their post-season fates on the line.

 

[The_Man]

I think home teams can be effective spoilers -- this week that means Buffalo, Philly and Houston (also the Saints could knock Carolina from the #2 to #5 seed).

But in Week 17, I would be surprised if road teams present many obstacles -- Oakland at Tampa or Jacksonville at Baltimore.

Particularly in Baltimore, where it's a clear "win and you're in" scenario. For the fans, it will be a playoff atmosphere. I think playing a physical team, in the cold, that Jacksonville isn't going to be a spoiler.

 

[MDSkinner]

AFC east fans know for sure that Buffalo has an OL that can take over a game with the right matchups - They have a RB that can take over a game when he wants and a decent backup.

There's optimistic and there's insane.In their last 10 meetings, New England has outscored Buffalo by 213 points and gone 10-0. I think I'm more likely to be the next coach of the Jets than the Bills are to beat the Pats with their post-season fates on the line.

You are probably right, Chase.But I just keep thinking back to this:

2006 Week 17

The Chiefs needed to win and for Denver, Tennessee and Cincy to lose in order to get in. 2 of those games went into overtime but they all went the way the Chiefs needed. Stuff happens when the playoffs are on the line, especially when you are playing against teams that are just in it to spoil (Bills and Jags).

Of course after this week, this post of mine will probably look silly. But right now, have some hope.

 

[Reaper]

AFC east fans know for sure that Buffalo has an OL that can take over a game with the right matchups - They have a RB that can take over a game when he wants and a decent backup.

There's optimistic and there's insane.In their last 10 meetings, New England has outscored Buffalo by 213 points and gone 10-0. I think I'm more likely to be the next coach of the Jets than the Bills are to beat the Pats with their post-season fates on the line.

Well, there's a lot of different factors from those past 10 games, 9 games at least.

This Buffalo team isn't that bad. But, sometimes they show up and sometimes they don't...Pretty much like the Jets.

 

[Reaper]

Seymour Might be out for the Pats...

Crowder might be out for the Fins...

You smell what I'm cookin'?

 

[Chase Stuart]

Seymour Might be out for the Pats...Crowder might be out for the Fins...You smell what I'm cookin'?

Stop.I smell NE 34, Buf 13. How oh how will the Patriots manage to win without Richard Seymour

 

[LBH]

Seymour Might be out for the Pats...Crowder might be out for the Fins...You smell what I'm cookin'?

Stop.I smell NE 34, Buf 13. How oh how will the Patriots manage to win without Richard Seymour

yeah No way do the Bills beat the Pats. Ill be rooting for Pennington and the Dolphins if the Pats win. I just cant stomach the idea of the Jets winning and sending the hated Patsies to the playoffs.

 

[Reaper]

Seymour Might be out for the Pats...Crowder might be out for the Fins...You smell what I'm cookin'?

Stop.I smell NE 34, Buf 13. How oh how will the Patriots manage to win without Richard Seymour

Hey, there's no way I'd go running around talking about grabbing a BYE in the playoffs midseason... As a Jets fan that makes me wince knowing what we've been through.Hangining on to one last chance when traditionally, division games can get whacky, the Pats are injured and Buffalo isn't the easiest place to play isn't crazy at all in comparison....Hey, it's Christmas. I've seen crazier.

 

[David Yudkin]

Hey, it's Christmas. I've seen crazier.

Sure, anything can happen, but based on recent history in Buffalo, the Pats would pretty much have to be expected to win:07: Pats 56, Bills 1006: Pats 28, Bills 605: Pats 35, Bills 704: Pats 31, Bills 17

 

[SeniorVBDStudent]

Hey, it's Christmas. I've seen crazier.

Sure, anything can happen, but based on recent history in Buffalo, the Pats would pretty much have to be expected to win:07: Pats 56, Bills 1006: Pats 28, Bills 605: Pats 35, Bills 704: Pats 31, Bills 17

Sadly, I fear the Ravens are more of a lock than the Pats, leaving Patriots playoffs hopes in the hands of Mangini and Favre.

 

[Chase Stuart]

Hey, it's Christmas. I've seen crazier.

Sure, anything can happen, but based on recent history in Buffalo, the Pats would pretty much have to be expected to win:07: Pats 56, Bills 1006: Pats 28, Bills 605: Pats 35, Bills 704: Pats 31, Bills 17

Sadly, I fear the Ravens are more of a lock than the Pats, leaving Patriots playoffs hopes in the hands of Mangini and Favre.

 

[Saints-Man]

The Dolphins story is a great turnaround, but I don't think Miami made the jump from a historically bad team to a very good team. If you look at Pythagorean win percentages, Miami was really a 4-win team last year despite having a hard schedule. If you look at Pythagorean win percentages, Miami is really a 9-win team this year (over 16 games) and has a really easy schedule. Factoring in the schedules, Miami maybe improved by about three games this year.

Huge jump? Only to people who pay attention to just wins and losses. Miami lost a bunch of close games last season and won a bunch of close games this season, and faced a significantly easier schedule. It didn't take much to predict them to get to 6 or 7 wins; they've gotten full (and good) seasons out of Ronnie Brown and Chad Pennington, which just about never happens. That explains why they're already at 10 wins this year.

CS, would you please explain this? It peaks my interest, yet am not sure what it means.

 

[Chase Stuart]

The Dolphins story is a great turnaround, but I don't think Miami made the jump from a historically bad team to a very good team. If you look at Pythagorean win percentages, Miami was really a 4-win team last year despite having a hard schedule. If you look at Pythagorean win percentages, Miami is really a 9-win team this year (over 16 games) and has a really easy schedule. Factoring in the schedules, Miami maybe improved by about three games this year.

Huge jump? Only to people who pay attention to just wins and losses. Miami lost a bunch of close games last season and won a bunch of close games this season, and faced a significantly easier schedule. It didn't take much to predict them to get to 6 or 7 wins; they've gotten full (and good) seasons out of Ronnie Brown and Chad Pennington, which just about never happens. That explains why they're already at 10 wins this year.

CS, would you please explain this? It peaks my interest, yet am not sure what it means.

Sure, although lemme go into something else first.I calculated each NFL team's simple rating system score for this year; Miami rates at exactly average -- a score of 0.00. They've outscored their opponents by an average of 1.4 PPG and their opponents in their other games (after adjusting those games for SOS) are -1.4 PPG below average. So Miami has been a .500 team this year that won a few close games. That's not out of the ordinary -- for example, the Cleveland Browns were 1.1 points below average last year but won 10 games. Having an easy schedule makes that possible. Miami rated at -8.4 points below average last year, as they were outscored by over 10 points per game but faced a schedule that was 2.3 PPG better than average.

It's worth noting that in that link, I predicted Miami would win 6.7 games this season, and that's without knowing that: a) they'd add a bunch of talent; b) they'd have an easy schedule; and c) they'd win several close games. That's because teams that rate as 8.4 points below average, on average, win 6.7 games the next year. When you factor in the huge years of Pennington/Brown/Williams, the easy schedule and the close wins, a 10 or 11 win season isn't very surprising.

Back to Pythagoras, though. Here's some background reading. The basic jist of it, though, is that wins and losses are relatively crude measures of team strength. Points scored and points allowed are better measures. We're talking about real team strength and predictive team ability; Pythagorean methods are not a good way to evaluate which team accomplished the most or which team is most deserving of a playoff berth. We're thinking ahead, not looking back. By putting points in the numerator and points and points allowed in the denominator, along with the appropriate exponent, you can get a much better handle on team strength. For example, a 10-0 team isn't invincible. Judging by winning percentage, a 10-0 team = a 100-0 team = a 1000-0 team. But a 10-0 team that has outscored its opponents 300-200 would rank behind a 9-1 team that outscored its opponents 350-150.

 

[Our Gang]

Chase,

Would you mind posting the Jets Simple Rating System Score for 2008? Curious to see where they come in at.

 

[Rovers]

NE will beat Buffalo easilly.

Then, I root for Chad and the Phins.

Then, the Jets will win.

Bet the farm on it.

 

[-baller]

I wonder how many jets fans will be rooting against the jets tomorrow, and how many pats fans will be rooting for them.

which group will be bigger?

 

[Reaper]

I don't get the Pats Hate > Miami Hate even if Chad is involved.

I'll be rooting for the Jets no matter what, as always.

I wouldn't even be able to be in the presence of a "Jets fan" rooting against their team.

 

[Rovers]

I don't get the Pats Hate > Miami Hate even if Chad is involved.I'll be rooting for the Jets no matter what, as always.I wouldn't even be able to be in the presence of a "Jets fan" rooting against their team.

If NE wins the early game...I was never thrilled with the Favre trade. I really think he should call it quits after today, and that is almost a sure thing if the Jets lose. I think a Jets loss means this franchise can move on and look forward to next year, so I am actually rooting for the Jets, but my interest is long term, not winning a meaningless game that could mean Favre's return. Either way, I'm not going to be jumping up and down no matter what happens. Watching this game is not going to be any fun at all. "Rooting" was probably the wrong word to use. I'm just disgusted with this team, it's QB, it's coach. I've been watching this team fail to show up for forty years now, why should today be any different?

 

[-baller]

Watching this game is not going to be any fun at all. I'm just disgusted with this team, it's QB, it's coach. I've been watching this team fail to show up for forty years now, why should today be any different?

how sweet it is.my preseason pick is that you guys would be throwing batteries at favre after about 4 games, so I want to at least give myself partial credit on that one, although I have to admit favre lasted longer than I thought he would.edit: let's not get carried away awarding the pats any win for a game that hasn't even been played yet.buffalo is an excellent team, and the pats will have their hands full.

 

[MarshallRob]

Best turnaround ever?Chad Pennington MVP?Can they get it done next week on the road in New York? The storylines go in so many directions but what about Pennington going back to face his old team where essentially the winner of the game is going to the playoffs. Sporano coach of the year?

Yes, yes, yes and yes.This season has just been incredible for Dolphin fans. From one win to eleven wins and a division title. Playing their best football in November and December. Winning on the road in cold weather games in December. Winning in New York. This team has simply broken the mold. Parcells, Sparano and Pennington deserve all the credit in the world.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

WOOHOO!!!

Beating the Ravens next week will be no treat but it's just awesome to have seen this turnaround in 1 year. Chase can run his stats all he wants, but the Miami Dolphins went form picking 1st in the NFL draft to Division Champs, and we did it with the QB the Jets didn't want. Thank you Chad, thank you Bill, and thank you Nick Saban and Cam Cameron...if you both didn't suck so bad as NFL head coaches we never would have gotten this far.

 

[NoFBinLA]

Hats off to the Phins -= I don't love them, but I really have been :chokegargle: impressed :choke: with them this season.

Almost couldn't get that out without choking on my words.....

Seriously though - Always liked Penni even if I didn't feel he was the right long term fit for the jets the last few season, love Tuna and am incredibly impressed with Sparano.

Also, as I said all last off season they needed to go with Jake Long on Draft day that he was clearly the missing piece for the Dolphins!

(hey my Jets just finished a huge choke job, gimme something to get to sleep tonight besides scotch)

 

[jamny]

Best turnaround ever?Chad Pennington MVP?Can they get it done next week on the road in New York? The storylines go in so many directions but what about Pennington going back to face his old team where essentially the winner of the game is going to the playoffs. Sporano coach of the year?

Yes, yes, yes and yes.This season has just been incredible for Dolphin fans. From one win to eleven wins and a division title. Playing their best football in November and December. Winning on the road in cold weather games in December. Winning in New York. This team has simply broken the mold. Parcells, Sparano and Pennington deserve all the credit in the world.

even a loss today couldn't dampen my enthusiasm for this team this year. An amazing turnaround!Playing with house money now.

 

[The Goat]

I can't believe the Dolphins might finish 10-6 twice in a decade and make the playoffs neither time. They have to beat the Jets.

What would be more incredible is if the Patriots go 11-5 and miss the playoffs.I would be amused.

UPDATE:I am amused.

 

[=Smackdown=]

DOLPHIN delirium today at Giant stadium with a ton of Fish fans in the stands.

1st PLACE DOLPHINS !!!

I still can't believe it. Jet fan dejection was at an all time high today.

THANKS for Pennington.

 

[Native]

WOOOOOOOOOOHHHHHHHHOOOOOOOOOO!

Great day for the Phins. Congrats Miami.

 

[jcuadrado]

boooyaaah......AFC East champs baby....no matter what you can't discount what what Phins accomplished this season...

 

[Man In The Box]

 

[Lord of the Rings]

FEAR THE FIN!

 

[hxperson]

 

[jcuadrado]

PHEAR THE PHISH>>>>>>>>..

 

[Finatic]

Alright Miamiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiii

 

[Desert_Power]

 

[-baller]

I'm a miami fan, now.

don't pull a jets on me, eff'ers.

 

[spacevan]

It's good to see Miami turn it around.

Enjoy your 6 days of celebration because there is no way Miami beats Baltimore. No way. No how!

 

[-baller]

there is no way Miami beats Baltimore. wins the division. No way. No how!

 

[Saints-Man]

The Dolphins story is a great turnaround, but I don't think Miami made the jump from a historically bad team to a very good team. If you look at Pythagorean win percentages, Miami was really a 4-win team last year despite having a hard schedule. If you look at Pythagorean win percentages, Miami is really a 9-win team this year (over 16 games) and has a really easy schedule. Factoring in the schedules, Miami maybe improved by about three games this year.

Huge jump? Only to people who pay attention to just wins and losses. Miami lost a bunch of close games last season and won a bunch of close games this season, and faced a significantly easier schedule. It didn't take much to predict them to get to 6 or 7 wins; they've gotten full (and good) seasons out of Ronnie Brown and Chad Pennington, which just about never happens. That explains why they're already at 10 wins this year.

CS, would you please explain this? It peaks my interest, yet am not sure what it means.

Sure, although lemme go into something else first.I calculated each NFL team's simple rating system score for this year; Miami rates at exactly average -- a score of 0.00. They've outscored their opponents by an average of 1.4 PPG and their opponents in their other games (after adjusting those games for SOS) are -1.4 PPG below average. So Miami has been a .500 team this year that won a few close games. That's not out of the ordinary -- for example, the Cleveland Browns were 1.1 points below average last year but won 10 games. Having an easy schedule makes that possible. Miami rated at -8.4 points below average last year, as they were outscored by over 10 points per game but faced a schedule that was 2.3 PPG better than average.

It's worth noting that in that link, I predicted Miami would win 6.7 games this season, and that's without knowing that: a) they'd add a bunch of talent; b) they'd have an easy schedule; and c) they'd win several close games. That's because teams that rate as 8.4 points below average, on average, win 6.7 games the next year. When you factor in the huge years of Pennington/Brown/Williams, the easy schedule and the close wins, a 10 or 11 win season isn't very surprising.

Back to Pythagoras, though. Here's some background reading. The basic jist of it, though, is that wins and losses are relatively crude measures of team strength. Points scored and points allowed are better measures. We're talking about real team strength and predictive team ability; Pythagorean methods are not a good way to evaluate which team accomplished the most or which team is most deserving of a playoff berth. We're thinking ahead, not looking back. By putting points in the numerator and points and points allowed in the denominator, along with the appropriate exponent, you can get a much better handle on team strength. For example, a 10-0 team isn't invincible. Judging by winning percentage, a 10-0 team = a 100-0 team = a 1000-0 team. But a 10-0 team that has outscored its opponents 300-200 would rank behind a 9-1 team that outscored its opponents 350-150.

Thanks Chase!! Great read.

 

[Reaper]

DOLPHIN delirium today at Giant stadium with a ton of Fish fans in the stands.

1st PLACE DOLPHINS !!!

I still can't believe it. Jet fan dejection was at an all time high today.

THANKS for Pennington.

CONGRATS SMACKDOWN!!!!!!

Must have been a ton of fun yesterday....

And All Miami fans... Perfect storybook season, so far... Good luck in the playoffs..

 

[Kirby]

I like our chances vs. Balt/Tenn more than the other side of the bracket.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

I like our chances vs. Balt/Tenn more than the other side of the bracket.

If Miami wins they will turnaround and face Pittsburgh...3 seed vs 2 seed.

 

[=Smackdown=]

DOLPHIN delirium today at Giant stadium with a ton of Fish fans in the stands.

1st PLACE DOLPHINS !!!

I still can't believe it. Jet fan dejection was at an all time high today.

THANKS for Pennington.

CONGRATS SMACKDOWN!!!!!!Must have been a ton of fun yesterday....

And All Miami fans... Perfect storybook season, so far... Good luck in the playoffs..

Thanks Reaper.It was a ton of fun yesterday. I've been going to that stadium for so many years - most of the time it's a Miami L - most of the time it's a battle with the fans - garbage thrown at me, "squish the fish chants" directed at me, fights, etc. Walking out of that place with a W last night is something I'll never forget.

There were a lot of Dolphin fans there yesterday and the 4th quarter "Let's go Dolphins" chants almost brought a tear to my eye.

11-5 and AFC East Champs was so much more than I expected this year.

 

[Kirby]

I like our chances vs. Balt/Tenn more than the other side of the bracket.

If Miami wins they will turnaround and face Pittsburgh...3 seed vs 2 seed.

Well that's no good.