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Michael Turner, RB, Atlanta Falcons (1 Viewer)

Jason Wood

Zoo York
2011 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

With the labor uncertainty, there are more unanswered questions entering the summer than usual. The good news is that gives us some more time to discuss the merits of players without having to react (or overreact) to the smallest bits of news about a slight injury in practice, or coach speak. We'll have plenty of time for that when it comes (we hope).

In the meantime, as always we will post a list of players to be discussed each week. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discuss expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Michael Turner, RB, Atlanta Falcons

Player Page Link: Michael Turner Player Page

Each article will include:

[*]Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member

[*]Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads

[*]FBG Projections

[*]Consensus Member Projections

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[*]For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Attempts, Rush Yards, Rush TDs

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Michael Turner is a big back at 5-10 and 237 and he seems to get classified as the type that gets often injured. He is moving up in age and turned 29 in February. Those two facts, large back getting older seem to combine to cause him to drop like a rock among RB rankings between 2010 and this season.

I am not too sure how the ADPs are determined this off-season since it seems that drafting has slowed to a crawl, but FBG's latest number indicates that Turner is falling to RB 14. To me, this indicates a potential value selection toward the end of round 2 or early round 3.

In his three seasons in Atlanta, he has averaged 20.7 carries per game and scored 0.91 TDs per game. I realize that a lot of folks play ppr and he obviously slips some in ppr scoring, but I think that he is slipping too far this year. A quick glance at his receptions lets most see that he is just not that involved in the passing game, but he had a career high of 20 targets and 12 catches a year ago, so the optimist could say that he is trending upward.

I think that Atlanta has answered the Saints call to increase their offensive game plan looking at what they traded away to select Julio Jones. The trifecta of Roddy White, Julio Jones and Gonzo seems like it should increase the opportunities for Turner to run against 7-man fronts this year. I see another good season for him.

Michael Turner 16 gms 340 rushes 1428 yards 4.2 ypc 26 targets 20 catches 140 yds 7.0 ypc and 16 TDs

 
He's clearly slowing down and looked really bad at the end of last season. The only question is how fast he falls off the cliff.

220 carries/726 yards/3.3 YPC/7 TD's

5 rec/12 yards/0 TD's

Will be one of the biggest flops of 2011

 
Turner should have another solid season. While he's 29, he doesn't have that much mileage since he backed up LT in SD for his early years. Addition of Julio Jones should help ATL be a very dynamic offense, and Turner may see even more opportunities to score. He is very good value in the late 2nd or even 3rd round in PPR leagues.

300 car, 1300 yards, 14 TD

17 rec, 125 yards, 1 TD

 
He's clearly slowing down and looked really bad at the end of last season. The only question is how fast he falls off the cliff.220 carries/726 yards/3.3 YPC/7 TD's5 rec/12 yards/0 TD'sWill be one of the biggest flops of 2011
I also see Turner as among the top-tier backs most likely to noticeably fade, but I think those numbers are a bit low due to the sheer number of opportunities he'll probably get assuming the Falcons remain an NFC title contender:325 carries, 1230 yards (3.8 YPC), 14 TDs25 receptions, 230 yards, 0 TDs
 
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Turner is a very productive back, but so is Snelling (and Norwood for that matter). I think the Falcons will make a bigger effort to keep Turner's carries down than they have in the past by plugging in Snelling for a few more series than usual. That said, the Falcons are a good, balanced offense, and Turner should see his YPC go back up, and have plenty of scoring opportunities.

288 carries, 4.5 ypc, 1296 yards, 14 TDs (with negligible receiving stats)

 
I think his numbers will be down across the board.

The OLine likely won't be as good, he's a year older, and I think the Julio Jones pick insinuates a shift in offensive philosophy.

260 carries for around 1150 yards and 11 TDs

 
Michael Turner bounced back last year with a very solid season. I thought Atlanta's rush schedule was on the easier side and I felt like I noticed when Snelling was hurt, Turner had some bigger games because he was on the field more. When Atlanta has Snelling as an option, Turner is still the guy but they're not afraid to take him out for a series or two. Turner is a 1 dimensional player, he is good at running downhill and is their goaline back, so for that Turner is a late 1st round pick, early 2nd in most conventional 12 team leagues. He should again put up solid numbers as Atlanta seems to be a team that should be competing for the playoffs. It is worthy to note that when Atlanta falls behind, Michael Turner gets taken out of the game plan (never caught a TD pass in his career), something that doesn't happen to some of your elite backs who are involved in more of the passing game.

1280 yards rushing, 12 Td's, 10 receptions for 75 yards, zero TD's.

 
Atlanta seems to be transitioning to a more pass heavy offense. Turner still has some value, but I think a slight downtick in numbers is coming. Jacquizz Rodgers may steal a few carries as well.

302 carries for 1204 yards, 10 TD, 8 catches for 50 yards, ~ rb 12

 
I'm very down on Turner this year. I have him as my #31 overall player. Looking at his YPC progression and what appears to be an increased focus on the passing game, and the presence of a decent RB in Snelling, I think this is the year Turner has a big dropoff. It might not be, and I'm willing to take that risk, but I'm not going to take a 50/50 bet on 200 FTPs vs. 150 at a position where I will actually be able to draft him.

 
In dynasty, I sold him this offseason.

He is still a very good player and I think his YPC may actually go back up this year. They have what would appear to be a good schedule against the run this year also.

However, at the end of the day, I've owned him long enough to know that he's not likely going to help my contending team win a title this year because, for Turner to be the Turner that does that (big contributor to winning a title), he has to be the dominant version that is carryin 300+ times, chewing up 4.5+ YPC and, knocking out 1-2 Tds consistently.

I don't think, aside from an improvement in the YPC, any of the trends are going in the right direction. I don't think the Falcons want to run him that much anymore, Ryan seems to be taking the next natural step to allowing the team to pass more, they drafted a WR to help with just that, the short yardage redzone passing game is every bit as potent as the smash mouth 1-2 yard run game now, Turner gets forgotten when the Falcons fall behind, etc, etc. Just too much going south.

Add in that he is 29 and I just thought better to sell. I can't imagine getting much from him at age 30 and especially not if he has a very pedestrian season this year. Overall, he has been a guy that has hurt me aqs much as help me the past few seasons and its time to move on.

 
I don't think the Julio Jones addition will impact Turner in any negative way. If Jones had a 50/600/4 line for the season that would be decent production for a rookie- and that is basically what Michael Jenkins has been averaging the past 5 years. With tony G looking like he is ready to drop off a cliff (was nearly 2.5 y/c below his career average) and Roddy white leading the league in receptions last season there is plenty of room for Julio to do better without cutting in to Turner's workload.

Turner doesn't look like he has massive upside, but also is a pretty safe bet to be on pace for >300 touches and 12-14 TDs in this offense. On the other hand if White or Ryan were to get injured he might end up on pace for a 350+ touch year like his first year in ATL.

 
I just looked at recent FBG average rankings for RBs, and Turner is ranked 19th, behind untested guys like Jahvid Best. I'm confused about this- is there a reason for this?

 
I just looked at recent FBG average rankings for RBs, and Turner is ranked 19th, behind untested guys like Jahvid Best. I'm confused about this- is there a reason for this?
Age and injuries are prolly keeping his ADP down. I believe there is some legitimate concern but the pendulum has swung too far the other way. Considering his age, there isnt a ton of mileage on him as he was a backup in SD for a while but the factors against him include age, health and seemingly the Falcons looking to open things up more. I see him as the 12th or 13th RB this year.
 
I just looked at recent FBG average rankings for RBs, and Turner is ranked 19th, behind untested guys like Jahvid Best. I'm confused about this- is there a reason for this?
Age and injuries are prolly keeping his ADP down. I believe there is some legitimate concern but the pendulum has swung too far the other way. Considering his age, there isnt a ton of mileage on him as he was a backup in SD for a while but the factors against him include age, health and seemingly the Falcons looking to open things up more. I see him as the 12th or 13th RB this year.
Most of the people in my draft aren't that sophisticated- they rely on magazines and ESPN. So I'm guessing that, in my draft, he's going to be one of the top 10 running backs taken. I'm just trying to figure out if he's a guy I should look to avoid.
 
No way would I pass on him for Jahvid Best...although I don't believe that scenario will exist. I also agree that he is slowing down. Looked like poo last year.

 
In the latest David Dodd 300 list, Turner is the 18th ranked running back. He is also marked in red, as in "players to avoid".

Obviously there's some thought here that he just won't be productive this year, but I can't find any commentary or justification for it. What's going on?

 
In the latest David Dodd 300 list, Turner is the 18th ranked running back. He is also marked in red, as in "players to avoid".Obviously there's some thought here that he just won't be productive this year, but I can't find any commentary or justification for it. What's going on?
He's old, has a ton of mileage the last 3 years, he's fat, and he's slow. He'll continue to get TDs but all indications are the yardage will be off. And, I'm probably the only person that believes this but Jason Snelling is the better back as far as I'm concerned, so I worry he cuts into his carries.
 
Count me as someone who still sees Turner as a top 8 or so RB (non-PPR). He plays on a great offense, barring injury he is a lock for at least 250 carries (and I think he'll still see 300+), and other than Foster and AP, he has to be one of the best bets to get 12+ TDs. I would love to snag him with a late first round pick in my non-PPR, RB heavy league.

300 carries, 1260 yards, 15 TDs

 
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All signs point to a prolific Falcons offense, but I get a little concerned when you have a RB that gets taken out in obvious passing situations. If the team takes a step back and they play in catch-up mode more often than usual, that is going to hurt Turner's production. Also, if Ryan elects to throw more in the red zone with the added weapons, that could cut down on Turner's TDs.

I agree that he should be a virtual lock for 300+ carries and 10+ TDs as long as he is healthy, but there are some meaningful warning signs beyond the wear-and-tear.

 
any other thoughts on turner? dude should still easily get over 1000 and 10. their offense will most likely be better and hes one of the best GL backs in the league

 
Count me as someone who still sees Turner as a top 8 or so RB (non-PPR). He plays on a great offense, barring injury he is a lock for at least 250 carries (and I think he'll still see 300+), and other than Foster and AP, he has to be one of the best bets to get 12+ TDs. I would love to snag him with a late first round pick in my non-PPR, RB heavy league.300 carries, 1260 yards, 15 TDs
Yikes, I would say thats more like a top 3 fantasy back with those numbers. Count me in with the group that sees declining production, not touching him in my keeper league.240 car/980 yds/8 tds rushing
 
In the latest David Dodd 300 list, Turner is the 18th ranked running back. He is also marked in red, as in "players to avoid".Obviously there's some thought here that he just won't be productive this year, but I can't find any commentary or justification for it. What's going on?
He's old, has a ton of mileage the last 3 years, he's fat, and he's slow. He'll continue to get TDs but all indications are the yardage will be off. And, I'm probably the only person that believes this but Jason Snelling is the better back as far as I'm concerned, so I worry he cuts into his carries.
I'm holding Snelling in both of my leagues. If we see the decline of Turner do we see Snelling supplant him at some point this season, or do they ride Turner into the ground.
 
Updating from my original:

After owning him for the past 4 years and thinking of it some more in terms of real life,

I am liking him even less now and I think the RB14-18 fits.

The reason I am thinking that is the Falcons are a very good real life team with expectations of contending for the title. For Turner to be a fantasy FORCE, he has to be fed that ball 20+ times consistently. So, thinking of what the falcons are and their expectations, I see a lot of games where they are going to throw more than they have or games where they get behind. We all know when they get behind, Turner is an after thought in PPR. But now, in the games they get up on teams, I don't think we are going to see it like it was in the past where they would just hand it to him and he would pick up all those garbage yards.

Instead, I think they now will be thinking they want to keep him fresh for the playoffs (go ahead and run their 29 year old into the ground if they are chasing a Super Bowl, but not in week 6 or 9). So, I kind of see him having more of those games where he is erratic.

 
Updating from my original:After owning him for the past 4 years and thinking of it some more in terms of real life,I am liking him even less now and I think the RB14-18 fits.The reason I am thinking that is the Falcons are a very good real life team with expectations of contending for the title. For Turner to be a fantasy FORCE, he has to be fed that ball 20+ times consistently. So, thinking of what the falcons are and their expectations, I see a lot of games where they are going to throw more than they have or games where they get behind. We all know when they get behind, Turner is an after thought in PPR. But now, in the games they get up on teams, I don't think we are going to see it like it was in the past where they would just hand it to him and he would pick up all those garbage yards. Instead, I think they now will be thinking they want to keep him fresh for the playoffs (go ahead and run their 29 year old into the ground if they are chasing a Super Bowl, but not in week 6 or 9). So, I kind of see him having more of those games where he is erratic.
I'll believe all of this when I see it. The Falcons passed a lot last year, and Turner was very productive. This isn't a committee situation. They're a top offense. He's a bell cow back. No need to over think things IMO.
 
Updating from my original:After owning him for the past 4 years and thinking of it some more in terms of real life,I am liking him even less now and I think the RB14-18 fits.The reason I am thinking that is the Falcons are a very good real life team with expectations of contending for the title. For Turner to be a fantasy FORCE, he has to be fed that ball 20+ times consistently. So, thinking of what the falcons are and their expectations, I see a lot of games where they are going to throw more than they have or games where they get behind. We all know when they get behind, Turner is an after thought in PPR. But now, in the games they get up on teams, I don't think we are going to see it like it was in the past where they would just hand it to him and he would pick up all those garbage yards. Instead, I think they now will be thinking they want to keep him fresh for the playoffs (go ahead and run their 29 year old into the ground if they are chasing a Super Bowl, but not in week 6 or 9). So, I kind of see him having more of those games where he is erratic.
I have never owned Turner, but what I see from his production is a RB who has scored a ton of TDs. Second only to AP over the past few years. Hes on a good offense and has a nice schedule, especially playoff schedule. he was hurt last year and that is supposedly been corrected. How could you not put this guy in your top ten?
 

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