mid round value (1 Viewer)

[bostonfred]

Mid round value determining early round strategy seems to be a truism in fantasy circles, but it is rarely discuss on its own. Instead, you get comments like "you can always find a late round wr" or "tight end is deep so you can wait", and questions like "should I wait on qb or take one in the first?". Vbd addresses this somewhat, and that's great if you have great projections to work with and accurate/meaningful baselines, but we all acknowledge that neither are perfect, which is why we back up our risky players and take depth over starting defenses and kickers. This "upside down draft" buzz is cool because it addresses a value gap in the hobby - the injury proneness of running backs - but it is still a fixed strategy that works best because it is against the grain (much like the stud rb theory worked best back when people overdrafted qbs and wrs in the early rounds of the non ppr leagues that were the norm back then).

Here's another way to look at it. Let's start at the end and work backwards. If this is an 18 round draft, i need to fill out those late round picks. For some league formats, that will include something like one backup qb, two kickers and defenses, and a backup te. For some leagues, you will probably roll with one kicker, one d and one te; it depends on your league rules. Start there and understand how many picks you have to work with for other positions - is it 12, 15, or somewhere in between? Let's call it 15 for the sake of discussion - I will back up my qb only.

I know that there are some late round wrs I really like this year. I don't want to name them, and I doubt mine are the same as yours anyways. I plan to take three in the 10th through 15th rounds, and I would feel comfortable using them as my wr3bc in a 1qb, 2rb, 3wr, 1te league. That leaves me with two picks in the tenth and beyond, which I will use on backup rbs. This is pretty much my plan every year in every draft I do, give or take, and it seems pretty common.

So now we are looking at our first nine picks. I already have a wr3bc, and I miss out on the value of those picks if I take three stud wrs. So I want to take two top receivers, and I can insure against all of my receivers busting by taking a boring veteran (think reggie wayne this year, or derrick mason, donald driver, etc in years past). Six picks left, and I need a starting qb and te. That leaves me four picks to use on running backs, which means my ideal final roster will be 2 qb, 6 rb, 6wr, 1 te, 1k, 1d.

Now let's decide how best to allocate that. Start with qb. Thats the most important spot in this years draft, imo. If I take a qb early, I don't need to back him up unti late (unless its a guy like romo, cam or vick). If I take a qb late, I will want a good quality backup, so I will have to change my strategy around a little. Taking an extra qb in the first nine rounds means I have to cut something - probably a running back, and I will take one more backup rb in the late rounds. I am fine with either. The one thing I don't want is to take a mid tier qb and still have to take a backup early. So I can either go stud qb early, or wait as long as possible on qb. I can't honestly project guys like vick, peyton and rivers this year, so I don't care which one I get late - the fact that vick seems to go earlier than the others just means I probably wont get him.

This is where the question of mid round value comes in. The tier three qbs arent that far behind the tier two qbs, if at all, and are going late. I think you have to get that value in ten and twelve team leagues. Its a mistake not to wait on qb because of the depth at the position this year. The tenth qb is too close to the fourth qb on my board to justify taking the difference in adp. In fourteen and sixteen team leagues, these things are totally different. But again, if I plan to take a qb late, I might want a backup qb fairly early, so plan around it. Instead of four early picks on running backs, I will only get three.

Next comes wr. There are about 25 consensus top receivers in this draft between the first and fifth rounds. I want two, plus a mid tier guy in the sixth through ninth. That leaves me one pick between the sixth and ninth (to go with my 2 qbs and 1 wr) and three picks in the first five rounds for running backs and a tight end.

so now the question becomes, what kind of tight end am I comfortable starting. And I think the answer this year is that you want graham, gronk, hernandez or gates. Those guys are going to give you a huge leg up. If you can't get one, you take the last guy you're comfortable starting. Ideally, you take one in the first through third rounds.

Which leaves you with something like one rb, one wr and one te in the first three rounds, another rb and wr in the fourth and fifth, a qb and a rb in the sixth and seventh, a backup qb and "safe" wr3 in the eight and ninth, then your three sleeper wrs and defense, and backup rbs and a kicker in the final rounds.

That sounds good to me. It might not sound great to you, especially when you start putting names to those faces. You may have a sleeper stud rb targeted in the fourth, or just love cam newton or vernon davis or whoever your favorite guys are. Work around you own tiers. And no draft plan should prevent you from taking the best available player at your spot, or using rough vbd numbers to justify the best pick. This is just a process for thinking about your draft beforehand, and to think about as you adjust during the draft when the unexpected happens.

 

[silentcoach]

Good post, but the trap I see people falling into is that they need more than 1 of these value plays at each position in case they do not land them. There is no worse feeling than when the player you want goes earlier than you expected. Have 4 value players and you should be good to go.

A perfect example was people wanting M.Ryan as their "value" QB for later rounds. That's all good and dandy, but if he is your only hope you better reach or have a list of other qbs you do not mind having, too.

 

[bostonfred]

Good post, but the trap I see people falling into is that they need more than 1 of these value plays at each position in case they do not land them. There is no worse feeling than when the player you want goes earlier than you expected. Have 4 value players and you should be good to go.A perfect example was people wanting M.Ryan as their "value" QB for later rounds. That's all good and dandy, but if he your only hope, you better reach or have a list of other qbs you do not mind having, too.

Absolutely. For me, I like reggie bush and peyton hillis as value rb2 and rb3 this year, and I love mathews as a value rb1. There are people who feel exactly the opposite, which is precisely why they are values. If I don't get them, im fine with that. I have other guys in those tiers I like, and in the same adp round across positions. That's another reason I like starting with one each of wr/te/rb. It gives you maximum flexibility. If the rb I like is gone, I take a slightly better wr unless there's a similar rb on the board. At qb, I want the last or second to last one if I can get away with it. I think a lot of owners will be willing to play chicken even later than usual this year in ten and twelve team leagues because there is so much depth, but if I see there's only one good one left and I don't have one, I will take them regardless of round. If that means I get caught up in a run, so be it.

 

[Bo Skiboski]

I'm not sure I understand the value in planning like this. I don't mean that as a slight I just don't understand the benefits of doing this. Sometimes I think people get bogged down in draft strategy and they forget to take the best player. At the end of the day your league champion will be decided by who finds those studs that way exceed their draft position.

 

[bostonfred]

I'm not sure I understand the value in planning like this. I don't mean that as a slight I just don't understand the benefits of doing this. Sometimes I think people get bogged down in draft strategy and they forget to take the best player. At the end of the day your league champion will be decided by who finds those studs that way exceed their draft position.

I don't find value in planning rb, rb, wr, wr, te, qb, rb...I do find value in having a basic plan. The main things to me are a wr3bc with a safe guy, taking one of the last qb1s, and getting one of the big four tight ends. But in a real time draft, its easy to see a stud wr3 and say, he's the best value on the board, I will take him. I think that's a mistake because you gain value with wr3bc - it gives you guys who exceed their draft position. It seems easy to look at a qb in the first, see that he has a slightly higher vbd, and take him. But you give up on an opportunity to take a qb in the later round who will exceed their draft position. I don't have any late round tight ends who will be comparable to the stud tight ends, so I think you need to grab one of the studs. If you feel differently, that's fine. This isn't about my favorite players vs yours. If you go into the draft recognizing where the value plays are - a cluster of guys where you can mine for later round talent - you need a starting lineup spot for that talent unless you think you can trade it away. If you are really high on pierre garcon, for example, and you take calvin, jennings, roddy to start, then what value is there in your garcon pick? If garcon is the only late round guy you like, you obviously can't plan around him, but if you think there is big time talent in the late round wrs, you have to leave yourself a chance to acquire it. My ideal draft this year would be something like graham, mathews, roddy, bush, stevie, beanie, manning, wayne, ryan williams, freeman, and then a bunch of wrs. But that's because I think mathews, bush and beanie are all highly capable if putting up stud rb1 numbers. I understand other people feel differently and I don't want my specific projections to be the point of this thread. If you felt the way I do about these guys, then drafting jamaal charles because he slid to the late third would be a huge mistake, since you pass up on the opportunity to get other guys who you expect to greatly exceed their draft position. Taking brees because he slid to the late first would be a huge mistake when you don't have him that far ahead of ryan, manning, manning and romo. If you believe there are pockets of value at those spots, then you plan around them. If you don't, then you don't. I do, especially this year, so it makes a lot of sense to plan to get those guys.

 

[Bo Skiboski]

I'm not sure I understand the value in planning like this. I don't mean that as a slight I just don't understand the benefits of doing this. Sometimes I think people get bogged down in draft strategy and they forget to take the best player. At the end of the day your league champion will be decided by who finds those studs that way exceed their draft position.

I don't find value in planning rb, rb, wr, wr, te, qb, rb...I do find value in having a basic plan. The main things to me are a wr3bc with a safe guy, taking one of the last qb1s, and getting one of the big four tight ends. But in a real time draft, its easy to see a stud wr3 and say, he's the best value on the board, I will take him. I think that's a mistake because you gain value with wr3bc - it gives you guys who exceed their draft position. It seems easy to look at a qb in the first, see that he has a slightly higher vbd, and take him. But you give up on an opportunity to take a qb in the later round who will exceed their draft position. I don't have any late round tight ends who will be comparable to the stud tight ends, so I think you need to grab one of the studs. If you feel differently, that's fine. This isn't about my favorite players vs yours. If you go into the draft recognizing where the value plays are - a cluster of guys where you can mine for later round talent - you need a starting lineup spot for that talent unless you think you can trade it away. If you are really high on pierre garcon, for example, and you take calvin, jennings, roddy to start, then what value is there in your garcon pick? If garcon is the only late round guy you like, you obviously can't plan around him, but if you think there is big time talent in the late round wrs, you have to leave yourself a chance to acquire it. My ideal draft this year would be something like graham, mathews, roddy, bush, stevie, beanie, manning, wayne, ryan williams, freeman, and then a bunch of wrs. But that's because I think mathews, bush and beanie are all highly capable if putting up stud rb1 numbers. I understand other people feel differently and I don't want my specific projections to be the point of this thread. If you felt the way I do about these guys, then drafting jamaal charles because he slid to the late third would be a huge mistake, since you pass up on the opportunity to get other guys who you expect to greatly exceed their draft position. Taking brees because he slid to the late first would be a huge mistake when you don't have him that far ahead of ryan, manning, manning and romo. If you believe there are pockets of value at those spots, then you plan around them. If you don't, then you don't. I do, especially this year, so it makes a lot of sense to plan to get those guys.

I guess where we disagree is I don't think you ever lock yourself out of taking a guy because you took a guy earlier at the same position. The best seasons i've had is when I took a "back-up" guy in the middle rounds when I already had taken guys at that position. Maybe we're saying something similar but I think you're over complicating it or I'm just not understanding which is entirely possible. It's most likely that a bunch of your early picks won't perform up to their draft position but with your plan it's crucial that they do.

 

[Manster]

Good thread to get us thinking.

More than likely I will wait on a QB. Theres the few guys you can get 5th-6th round in 12 teamers that could out-produce their ADP by a good margin. Like you said, this strategy means you will want a b/u QB quickly as well. Maybe you're next pick. Thats where the Peyton's and Roeth's and RGIII's are gonna go. After that, QB's will fall off the cliff pretty quickly. This could turn into QBBC, and playing matchups. Can be fun, or maddening!

This allows you hopefully spend your first few picks on "studs" at RB/WR/TE. Also there is solid depth at RB/WR in the mid rounds, if you do your homework. Like you said, we haver our specific targets.

The other thing is, we come to know our league-mates tendencies. Use this to your advantage if possible. Whether that means starting runs, or predicting who will over-pay cuz they have a man-crush.

 

[bostonfred]

I guess where we disagree is I don't think you ever lock yourself out of taking a guy because you took a guy earlier at the same position. The best seasons i've had is when I took a "back-up" guy in the middle rounds when I already had taken guys at that position. Maybe we're saying something similar but I think you're over complicating it or I'm just not understanding which is entirely possible. It's most likely that a bunch of your early picks won't perform up to their draft position but with your plan it's crucial that they do.

I can see that. Im suggesting taking three starting running backs and only two starting qbs in the first nine rounds, and only two starting receivers (and a safe guy), so im kind of on the same page. I think backup rbs and late round wrs are critical, and I don't think the tes after te8 or so are worth rostering as backups since theyre are all replacement level players due to the depth at the position. If you're asking whether id take two qbs in the first rour rounds, no, I wouldn't. If you're asking if id veer from this plan based on the way the draft fell, yes I would. So I think we may be saying similar things.

 

[Zeff]

I think this is a good post.

This basic philosophy is why I feel people who go through the trouble of doing lots of "pointless mocks" end up doing better than their un-practiced counterparts when their money drafts hit. Because you get a feel for which guys who you absolutely love you'll be able to steal toward the end of the draft, time after time.

When you know who those guys are, and what positions they fill, you can see where you have to spend your more valuable, earlier picks in order to build up a decent roster overall. When the clock's ticking, and you have to choose between that 8th round RB and that 8th round WR, and you know neither will be there when your next pick comes back, having a good idea where you're going to be spending your later picks helps you with the on-the-spot cost/benny analysis.

The most viable alternative strategy that I think is easy to spell out, is to have a group of guys in mind at EVERY position you'd be happy with as endgamers, then just go by best player available during the body of the draft...knowing that you'll be ready to fill in the gaps in your roster with dimestore solutions you can live with, no matter where the gaps happen to be.

 

[The Jerk]

I'm not sure I understand the value in planning like this. I don't mean that as a slight I just don't understand the benefits of doing this. Sometimes I think people get bogged down in draft strategy and they forget to take the best player. At the end of the day your league champion will be decided by who finds those studs that way exceed their draft position.

I don't find value in planning rb, rb, wr, wr, te, qb, rb...I do find value in having a basic plan. I guess where we disagree is I don't think you ever lock yourself out of taking a guy because you took a guy earlier at the same position. The best seasons i've had is when I took a "back-up" guy in the middle rounds when I already had taken guys at that position. Maybe we're saying something similar but I think you're over complicating it or I'm just not understanding which is entirely possible. It's most likely that a bunch of your early picks won't perform up to their draft position but with your plan it's crucial that they do.

In general, one of the inefficiencies in draft preparation is that far too many owners start with first round strategy and then continue down into the later rounds. I believe some owners tailor their later round strategy to work with their early rounds. This CAN work, but it's not a guarantee. There's a lot bostonfred gets right in his initial post, but the most important concept is that owners should examine mid-round value to help inform their earlier picks, not the other way around. I see late-round picks as lottery tickets more than anything else, but I see bfred's point about starting with the last rounds, too.An essential part of my draft preparation, in particular when having a late draft slot, is to prepare multiple contingency plans depending on whether it seems best to go early at any specific position. I prepare to draft every position late, so that I maximize my flexibility to grab value as it presents itself throughout the draft.So, like Bo Skibowski, I don't want to overplan my draft in detail by position or force the draft through micromanagement. Instead, by having multiple possible plans ready to go, I can grab value and then veer in whatever direction dictated by my early picks.At some point these plans diverge. You cannot simultaneously let value come to you and also use mid-round picks to inform your early selections. But if you see several mid-round RB values, you can wait on RB when the decision is not so clear between a RB and a QB/WR/TE early. Same idea if you see a glut of WRs of similar value.Specifically, I see TE as having a big dropoff after the early picks. Sure, I can find possible value by waiting until the 10th round or whatever, but the dropoff from the top 5 TEs to my late "value" pick is going to cost me several points in each week's matchup. The bottom line is that I can see many ways to get a reasonable QB round 4 or later, and the same is true at RB and WR in round 6 or later, but I don't see the same thing at TE. So I'm least likely to wait on TE. Most likely, my roster after 5 rounds will be 1 QB, 1 RB, 2 WRs and 1 TE. I may swap out a QB for a RB/WR, and extreme value could alter this plan a little bit, like Bo suggested. But I have this ideal 5-player initial roster because it allows me to utilize the perceived mid-round strength at RB and WR. I won't feel like I'm in a strait jacket when it comes to drafting. Rather, I just know ideally how I hope to shape my team. To me at least, that's the difference between having a plan and not having a plan, and it begins with analyzing mid-round player depth at each position.