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***Mid Season RB Expert Dynasty Rankings (1 Viewer)

Drugrunner

Just call me HORSE
It's time for a Mid Season Expert Dynasty Ranking.

We will be ranking the top players at each position and using that to create Dynasty Top 200 Forward by David. This is going to be exactly like the Rankings we did before the season started. A MB Thread will be started for each Position for your Rankings. We will also compile Expert rankings from the staff and put them together for release next week.

To be able to get it on the site in a timely manner, Clayton has requested that he get the compiled lists from me by Tuesday. Figure this will be a Wednesday or Thursday night release next week.

If you would like to participate, we need you to rank each position as you see them for the start of next season. Default to standard FBG scoring. We are using the start of next season as that will hopefully make these rankings the most useful to you now. Roster management of your team now for next year is the goal here.

Since we are creating this to use as a tool for the remainder of this season, don't worry about the incoming rookie class, and concentrate on current players in the NFL.

Remember that I will be compiling these lists on Tuesday morning, and if you want to participate, you will have to get your rankings in before then.

Please rank your top 35 Dynasty RBs for the start of next season.

 
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Since we are creating this to use as a tool for the remainder of this season, don't worry about the incoming rookie class, and concentrate on current players in the NFL.
I think the value of Ricky Williams is relevant to people today, but I'm not sure how to treat it for the purposes of this exercise?
 
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Since we are creating this to use as a tool for the remainder of this season, don't worry about the incoming rookie class, and concentrate on current players in the NFL.
I think the value of Ricky Williams is relevant to people today, but I'm not sure how to treat it for the purposes of this exercise?
It's best to leave him off the list since he's a wild card and his value will be all over the map.
 
Since we are creating this to use as a tool for the remainder of this season, don't worry about the incoming rookie class, and concentrate on current players in the NFL.
I think the value of Ricky Williams is relevant to people today, but I'm not sure how to treat it for the purposes of this exercise?
It's best to leave him off the list since he's a wild card and his value will be all over the map.
Great Question!I would most likely include him since he should be trying to get back in the NFL next season, and the purpose of this exercise is to help with Roster Management for the remainer of this season.You are welcome to go either way with it, but I will be including Ricky in my list. ;)Edit to add that Ricky won't be a top 20 RB as far as I am concerned.
 
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1. LaDainian Tomlinson2. Deuce McAllister 3. Edgerrin James4. Ahman Green 5. Jamal Lewis6. Chris Brown7. Shaun Alexander 8. Willis McGahee 9. Kevin Jones 10. Steven Jackson11. Tiki Barber 12. Clinton Portis 13. Priest Holmes 14. Thomas Jones15. Kevan Barlow 16. Fred Taylor 17. Duce Staley18. Travis Henry19. Domanick Davis20. Brian Westbrook21. Onterrio Smith22. Rudi Johnson 23. Lee Suggs 24. William Green 25. Julius Jones26. Corey Dillon27. Michael Bennett 28. Warrick Dunn29. LaMont Jordan 30. Reuben Droughns31. Tatum Bell 32. Marshall Faulk33. Cedric Cobbs34. Chester Taylor 35. Justin Fargas JUST MISSED:Larry Johnson Chris Perry Anthony ThomasMarcel Shipp

 
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1. LaDainian Tomlinson2. Deuce McAllister 3. Edgerrin James4. Ahman Green 5. Jamal Lewis6. Chris Brown7. Shaun Alexander 8. Willis McGahee 9. Kevin Jones 10. Steven Jackson11. Tiki Barber 12. Clinton Portis 13. Priest Holmes 14. Thomas Jones15. Kevan Barlow 16. Fred Taylor 17. Duce Staley18. Domanick Davis19. Brian Westbrook20. Onterrio Smith21. Rudi Johnson 22. Lee Suggs 22. William Green 23. Julius Jones24. Corey Dillon25. Michael Bennett 26. Warrick Dunn27. LaMont Jordan 28. Tatum Bell 29. Cedric Cobbs30. Chester Taylor 31. Justin Fargas 32. Larry Johnson33. Chris Perry 34. Marcel Shipp 35. Anthony Thomas
Are you assumming that Faulk is retired and Jackson has taken over? Not that I disagree but if Jackson takes over next year I see him top 5. Just not sure where Faulk comes in next year.What about Henry? I don't see him on your list. I assume he will be traded and start somewhere and I would think he would be top 15-20 at least.Also, what about Droughns? Do you think he'll still be starting in Denver.I'm not trying to criticize, just curious about your thinking.
 
Hmm, if Priest plays next year I can't see him outside the top 5. He another year older but as long as the Chiefs line is opening gaping holes I don't see him slipping to #13.Also, McGahee, K. Jones and S. Jackson are too high - should be after T. Jones at #14. Too many variables going on with McGahee and Jackson, like whether they will be splitting time with anyone. K. Jones could be that high, but as of right now I think it's a stretch.

 
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Hmm, if Priest plays next year I can't see him outside the top 5. He another year older but as long as the Chiefs line is opening gaping holes I don't see him slipping to #13.
I have to agree. The only way he falls out of the top 5 is retirement or injury. Unless of course Larry Johnson beats him out in camp. :rotflmao:
 
Hmm, if Priest plays next year I can't see him outside the top 5. He another year older but as long as the Chiefs line is opening gaping holes I don't see him slipping to #13.
I have to agree. The only way he falls out of the top 5 is retirement or injury. Unless of course Larry Johnson beats him out in camp. :rotflmao:
It's Dynasty rankings.Priest would most likely be #1 or #2 in redraft rankings but most don't think he'll play after next year.
 
EBF-Good list. I'd move Jackson up as Family Matters said. Also, I see you don't have any college SRs on your list. I would rank Cedric Benson around 15-2 and probably put Cadillac Williams around 30-35. I know the Benson ranking will raise some eyebrows but I'm guessing that he goes to a team and starts immediately. If that happens I think he's a better prospect than Kevin Jones, Tatum Bell, Lee Suggs, and even Steven Jackson although Jackson may be in a better situation.

 
1. LaDainian Tomlinson2. Shaun Alexander 3. Ahman Green 4. Jamal Lewis<------------------------(Adrian Peterson-hypothetically) :yes: 5. Edgerrin James6. Deuce McAllister 7. Steven Jackson8. Onterrio Smith :yes: 9. Clinton Portis 10. Tiki Barber 11. Priest Holmes 12. Thomas Jones13. Kevin Jones 14. Chris Brown15. Julius Jones :ph34r: 16. Reuben Droughns :unsure: 17. Domanick Davis18. Willis McGahee19. Duce Staley20. Marcel Shipp 21. Fred Taylor 22. D. Foster23. Lee Suggs 24. Corey Dillon25. Ricky Williams26. Kevan Barlow 27. Brian Westbrook28. Curtis Martin29. Rudi Johnson 30. Anthony Thomas 31. Travis Henry32. Michael Pittman33. LaMont Jordan34. Cadillac Williams35. Michael Bennett 36. Chris Perry 37. N. Davenport38. Warrick Dunn39. Marshall Faulk40. William Green 41. S. Davis42. Tatum Bell43. Larry Johnson44. D. Rhodes :ph34r: 45. M. Moore46. Cedric benson47. T.J. DuckettStill Fine-Tuning, but here's version 1.0

 
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Good timing for this topic. Excellent post. :thumbup: I'm working on my rankings now.In my keeper league I have assembled a very strong roster, but I need help at WR in a bad way. Another owner wants to trade me Marvin Harrison for either Chris Brown or Willis McGahee. I don't want to give up either RB, and I feel like whichever one I trade away will have a great career while the other will fade into obscurity. I'm leaning toward keeping Brown because he is obviously having success, but I'm certainly not confident about my choice. I hope that the responses to this topic will help me make up my mind. :popcorn:

 
Hmm, if Priest plays next year I can't see him outside the top 5.  He another year older but as long as the Chiefs line is opening gaping holes I don't see him slipping to #13.
I have to agree. The only way he falls out of the top 5 is retirement or injury. Unless of course Larry Johnson beats him out in camp. :rotflmao:
Priest's retirement has me scared so I don't think you can keep him top 10. I would set the over/under on additional seasons at 1 for Holmes.
 
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Priest's retirement has me scared so I don't think you can keep him top 10. I would set the over/under on additional seasons at 1 for Holmes.
If so, shouldn't Derrick Blaylock be getting some serious consideration in these rankings? Blaylock could be huge in that offense.
 
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1: LaDainian Tomlinson- can run/catch and get many TD's is the #1 option on his team. explosive speed and power. the ultimate back imo. dual threat

2: Shaun Alexander- really has a nose for the endzone. he piles up TD's. has other weapons in the offense to keep the defense honest. runs well and catches very well too. dual threat

3: Edgerrin James- another dual threat option halfback. runs with power, finds the cutback with precision. his current team is loaded on offense to keep the defense honest has one of the best QB's to ever play the game.

4: Jamal Lewis- only 25 yrs old. has a 2k year allready. the offense is geared torwards the run and has one of the best run blocking lines in football. has a top defense to hang with the other team all game to boot. extremely rare blend of size and SPEED. both a power and home run hitter. only knock: doesnt catch much.

5: Deuce McAllister- another dual threat RB. more power then speed tho, his team needs to gear the offense mroe torwards him then the passign attack.

6: Ahman Green- does it all as well... dual threat with an explosive passing attack. punishes defenders. offense is geared torwards him. has an extremely good OL too boot.

7: Priest Holmes- i keep thinking this is the year... but every time he puts up monster stats. i still think hes got a few good years left in him.

8: Clinton Portis- mixed review so far but hard to argue with his YPC. hes definetly the guy there in Washington needs time to develop more chemistry in Gibbs system. not that big tho... injury concerns could lay here.

9: Thomas Jones- dual threat... runs and passes with blazing speed finaly coming into hi sown. is in an offense geared torward specificaly hi srunning style. mamoth OL ... just need the QB now. has ability to be top 5

10: Stephen Jackson- has the ability to be were Jamal Lewis is. very powerfull back but catches well too. in a good system. is ready to take over the LEAGUE when Faulk lets him.

11: Tiki Barber- coming into his own this year, really a very under rated RB. if they would get rid of that stiff Dayne allready!

12: Kevin Jones- has top 5 ability. rare blend of size+speed. need sto improvise his pass catchign ability and vision to the cutback lane but that will come. definetly a top 5 candidate when he matures.

13: Chris Brown- very shifty and has speed for his size. in a good situation in Tenessee should score in bunches while there... only concern is: uprigth style.

14: Willis McGahee- has top 5 talent. good vision and speed for his size as well. has a good QB now and for the future imo to set up the

run there in that offense.

15: Fred taylor- seems liek this exceptional talent is getting run down more and more. alot of wear on those legs. still should be good for a few more years at the LEAST. has one of the best young QB's.

16: Cory Dillon- has a few years left in him... is on possibly the best team in the NFL. they love to run and are always in a redzone situation it seems.

17: Kevan Barlow- its not him its his entire team.

18: LaMont Jordan- someone will be scoring big in the offseason.

19: Lee Suggs- hes better then Willie Green... alot better.

20: Rudi Johnson- i dont think he stays a Bengal so hi sstatus as a starter somewhere else is somewhat concerning.

21: DeShaun Foster- has top 10 talent but the guy cant stay healthy... was the same case in college. is on a greatr running team however but its yet to be seen if he can handle a full 16 game load.

22: Warrick Dunn- undervalued and in a very crowded backfield. if it was just him there would be no doubt he woul drank higher. does it all very well... run/catch. dual threat.

23: Travis Henry- his status is unclear or he would rank very much higher on the list. depending on what team he gets dealt to.

24: Michael Bennett- see Henry

25: Brian Westbrook- injury will always haunt this back. exceptional talent but too small.

my top 25 for now. theres notable left off the list where i will be addign my other 10.

 
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Priest's retirement has me scared so I don't think you can keep him top 10.  I would set the over/under on additional seasons at 1 for Holmes.
If so, shouldn't Derrick Blaylock be getting some serious consideration in these rankings? Blaylock could be huge in that offense.
I personally don't think the Chiefs will ever start the season wiht Blaylock as their #1 RB. He's a career backup IMHO.
 
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I personally don't think the Chiefs will ever start the season wiht Blaylock as their #1 RB. He's a career backup IMHO.
This brings an interesting question to mind:Most people never talk much about Blaylock amounting to anything special and most assume that it's just the system that has allowed him to have some success in the back up role to Priest. Meanwhile, you have 3 apparent stud RBs in Minnesota who are in a similarly explosive offense with a great offensive line, yet most of us seem to think that any of the 3 (Moore, Smith and Bennett) could be starting backs for many teams in this league. Why is that?LHUCKS, this isn't directed specificly at you, but your comment brought the question to my mind.
 
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I personally don't think the Chiefs will ever start the season wiht Blaylock as their #1 RB.  He's a career backup IMHO.
This brings an interesting question to mind:Most people never talk much about Blaylock amounting to anything special and most assume that it's just the system that has allowed him to have some success in the back up role to Priest. Meanwhile, you have 3 apparent stud RBs in Minnesota who are in a similarly explosive offense with a great offensive line, yet most of us seem to think that any of the 3 (Moore, Smith and Bennett) could be starting backs for many teams in this league. Why is that?LHUCKS, this isn't directed specificly at you, but your comment brought the question to my mind.
I'm not clear on exactly what your question is, but IMO Blaylock isn't a gamebreaker. I believe the Chiefs would draft a RB or go after a free agent RB if they found out Priest wasn't coming back. That is why you don't see Blaylock in my rankings.As far as Minnesota's situation is concerned, my rankings reflect my belief that SOD is the most likely long term solution there. Moore has been a nice surprise, but I don't see it as a RBBC next year...not unless SOD gets into more trouble or gets dinged up. Two different situations so it's hard to compare the two.
 
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1. LaDainian Tomlinson 2. Deuce McAllister3. Edgerrin James4. Shaun Alexander 5. Clinton Portis 6. Jamal Lewis7. Ahman Green 8. Thomas Jones9. Chris Brown10. Willis McGahee11. Kevin Jones12. Kevan Barlow13. Steven Jackson14. Onterrio Smith 15. Brian Westbrook16. Curtis Martin17. Priest Holmes 18. Tiki Barber19. Fred Taylor20. Duce Staley21. Julius Jones 22. D. Foster23. LaMont Jordan24. Corey Dillon25. Travis Henry26. Dom Davis27. Reuben Droughns 28. Lee Suggs 29. Rudi Johnson 30. Michael Bennett

 
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1 Tomlinson - Will only improve as surrounding talent does.2 Alexander - Offense is more focused around him3 McCallister - Could suffer from a coaching change. 4 Edge James - Hopefully will stay in Indy5 Jamal Lewis - If Baltimore develops a passing game then can only improve.6 Portis - Needs passing game to improve7 McGahee - As knee and Bills improve, so will he.8 Priest Holmes - Good for 2+ more years. Cannot pass up his dominance. 9 Chris Brown - Emerging, and Tenn defense will rebound next year. 10 Fred Taylor - If Leftwich can improve, which he should, it will help Taylor. 11 Ahman Green - 3+ years left in tank. Concern is Favre retiring. 12 Thomas Jones - Great this year, can only improve as Bears offense improves under Shea. 13 DeShaun Foster - Health is a concern. 14 Domanick Davis - Health? Great offensive system. 15 Westbrook - Fragile health. 16 Barber - 2+ years left.17 Dillon - 2+ years left. Does not catch ball much. 18 Curtis Martin - 2 years, centerpiece of offense. 19 Stephen Jackson - 1+ from taking over. Question how well he fits in Martz offense. 20 Onterrio Smith - May or may not be feature back. Character issues. 17 Duce Staley - Old, slow, no TDs. 18 Reuben Droughns - Questionable after this year. 19 Kevin Jones - I do not know that he can play. 20 Ricky Williams - 3 years left. Proven. 21 Kevan Barlow - He is marginal and might be replaced. 22 Travis Henry - Proven, likely will find a home by 05 or 06. 23 Julius Jones - Who knows what he can do, or if he has a job. I don't like him.24 Marshall Faulk - 1 year left.25 Rudi Johnson - Underrated. Key is to be resigned in Cinci, better play at QB, and Cinci defense. 26 Lee Suggs - Stenosis, I think he won't make it long term. 27 William Green - He is not special. When Butch gets fired, both RBs will be gone. 28 Michael Bennett - No vision, and injury prone. 29 Warrick Dunn - Small, old. 30 Lamont Jordan - Overrated, but might get a shot in 05. 31 Cedric Cobbs - Great pure runner, could start in 06. 32 Mewelde Moore - Great talent, can play, needs opportunity. 33 Derrick Blaylock - UFA, Tampa?34 Dominic Rhodes - UFA, Tampa?35 Anthony Thomas - Somewhat proven, a plodder, Oakland?36 Michael Pittman - Terrible, He will have competition in 05. 37 Tatum Bell - Could get a shot vs. Droughns in 05. 38 TJ Duckett - Terrible in Atl, looks like Ron Dayne, maybe he will come around. 39 LaBrandon Toefield - Great runner, could land a job down the road, but could fill in admirably for Taylor too. Greg Jones is a non-factor. 40 Jesse Chatman - Good as insurance for LT241 Najeh Davenport - Special combo of size and speed. 42 Jonathon Wells - Good size. 43 Verron Haynes - Very capable runner, who could land an opportunity in 05. 44 Justin Fargas - Squandered opportunities this year since injured.

 
I wasn't questioning your rankings or anyone's for that matter. I think it's just interesting that Blaylock is regarded as a [career] backup by most (I agree with this, by the way) that performs well whenever he is needed. Most people figure that it is mainly the Kansas City system that allows him success when he fills in for Holmes.When you look at the Minnesota running back situation, you have 3 highly regarded running backs, who have all put up solid numbers and performed well playing behind an offensive line as impressive as Kansas City's. It seems to be the general consensus that Moore, Smith or Bennett could play well on virtually any team in the league. I just wonder why no one seems to question whether or not it is in fact just the system that makes the Minnesota running game as effective as it has been. I should take that back, some people have suggested that anyone could do well running in Minnesota - yet we regard all 3 backs as viable starting options for almost any team in the league. I guess I haven't seen enough of Blaylock, or Moore/Smith/Bennett to really be able to compare their respective skills, but I guess it just comes down to the three Minnesota running backs having more gamebreaking ability, which is why all three will probably be starters somewhere eventually while Blaylock will be relegated a career backup.

 
1. LaDainian Tomlinson2. Shaun Alexander3. Deuce McAllister4. Clinton Portis5. Jamal Lewis6. Ahman Green7. Thomas Jones8. Chris Brown9. Willis McGahee10. Edgerrin James- he'd be higher if I didn't have this gut feeling that says he might pull a Ricky Williams and retire before age 3011. Steven Jackson12. Priest Holmes13. Tiki Barber - turns 30 next year so Buyer Beware 14. Fred Taylor 15. Kevan Barlow - I'm still drinking the kool-aid16. Kevin Jones 17. Brian Westbrook 18. Onterrio Smith 19. Tatum Bell - I wish we could have seen more of him during the 1st half of the season20. Lee Suggs 21. William Green 22. Domanick Davis22. Rudi Johnson 23. Michael Bennett 24. Curtis Martin25. Duce Staley26. Corey Dillon27. Deshaun Foster- It's a shame he got injured so we could see him develop more28. Julius Jones29. Warrick Dunn30. Mewelde Moore - gets included cuz ya never know about the Minnesota merry-go-round at RB.31. Anthony Thomas 32. Larry Johnson 33. Chris Perry 34. Reuben Droughns -would be alot higher if not for Bell 35. Cedric Cobbs 36. Tony Hollings/Lamont Jordan- Honorable mentions37. Quentin Griffin- Oh, how the mighty have fallen. Reserves the right to edit this in the next few days :bag:

 
Ernest - What is this about - "21 Kevan Barlow - He is marginal and might be replaced. "? Barlow is being ranked much too low because of his poor performance this season. He's very talented, young, and his team will be better next year.Yes, the kool-aid is good :D

 
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I have a question for everybody regarding Preist and Dynasty rankings. If you could have Preist knowing that he will only play 2 more years but he will be the #1 back both years and lead the league in TD's, how would you rank him?IMO, he has to rank high. He can be the difference in winning your championship or not. Even though he only plays 2 years, so what if you WIN!This is an excellent example of why I think some guys undervalue good players. They put way too much emphasis on long term keeper potential. Let's remember 1 thing guys, people get injured and change teams. You don't know what's going to happen 3-4 years down the road. How many guys even last that long? The avg. life of a RB is what, 4 years?Thoughts?

 
Ernest - What is this about - "21 Kevan Barlow - He is marginal and might be replaced. "? Barlow is being ranked much too low because of his poor performance this season. He's very talented, young, and his team will be better next year.
Agreed - that and the mega-contract he signed in the offseason more or less guarantees that he'll be given another chance.
 
Here's my list1. Ladanian Tomlinson2. Deuce McCalister3. Shaun Alexander4. Jamal Lewis5. Edgerrin James6. Clinton Portis7. Ahman Green8. Priest Holmes9. Kevin Jones10. Tiki Barber11. Willis McGahee12. Fred Taylor13. Chris Brown14. Kevan Barlow15. Stephen Jackson16. Thomas Jones17. Domanick Davis18. Rudi Johnson19. Corey Dillon20. Duce Staley21. Brian Westbrook22. Julius Jones23. Reuben Droughns24. Michael Bennett25. Marshall Faulk26. Onterrio Smith27. Lee Suggs28. William Green29. Ricky Williams30. Tatum Bell31. Deshaun Foster32. Travis Henry33. Stephen Davis34. Michael Pittman35. Warrick Dunn36. Curtis Martin37. Cedric Cobbs38. Lamont Jordan39. Marcel Shipp50. Artose Pinner (for you know who...)It is difficult to predict with some backs maybe retiring like S. Davis, Faulk, Martin and Holmes. I made the list with their status being up in the air with the chance of Martin and Davis either retiring or taking a minor role.

 
I have a question for everybody regarding Preist and Dynasty rankings. If you could have Preist knowing that he will only play 2 more years but he will be the #1 back both years and lead the league in TD's, how would you rank him?IMO, he has to rank high. He can be the difference in winning your championship or not. Even though he only plays 2 years, so what if you WIN!This is an excellent example of why I think some guys undervalue good players. They put way too much emphasis on long term keeper potential. Let's remember 1 thing guys, people get injured and change teams. You don't know what's going to happen 3-4 years down the road. How many guys even last that long? The avg. life of a RB is what, 4 years?Thoughts?
Assuming that, I'd put him at #2 behind LT. However he's not a lock for that and you can't even be sure he'll play 2 years. I have a hard time keeping him out of the top 10 but there are a lot of good young RB's who will put up numbers close to Priest's and will good for another 5 years minimum, barring injury. I wouldn't be able to pass on any of these guys for Priest:1. LaDainian Tomlinson2. Deuce McAllister3. Edgerrin James4. Shaun Alexander 5. Clinton Portis 6. Jamal Lewis7. Ahman Green 8. Thomas Jones9. Chris Brown
 
1 Ladanian Tomlinson2 Deuce McCalister3 Edgerrin James4 Jamal Lewis5 Shaun Alexander6 Ahman Green7 Clinton Portis8 Priest Holmes9 Tiki Barber10 Willis McGahee11 Stephen Jackson12 Thomas Jones13 Chris Brown14 Kevan Barlow15 Onterrio Smith16 Reuben Droughns17 Corey Dillon18 Brian Westbrook19 Kevin Jones20 Fred Taylor21 Domanick Davis22 Michael Bennett23 Rudi Johnson24 Julius Jones25 Deshaun Foster26 Duce Staley27 Curtis Martin28 Ricky Williams29 Warrick Dunn30 William Green31 Lee Suggs32 Travis Henry33 Stephen Davis34 Marcel Shipp35 Michael Pittman

 
I forgot about Faulk and Henry. I'll go back and edit them in. I don't think Droughns is a long term stud, but I will probably also add him to the rankings.As for the stuff about Priest, I think how high you rank him depends on your style of playing dynasty leagues. In the short term he is a great option, but he doesn't have the potential for longevity that a 22 year old like Kevin Jones has. It will seem counter-intuitive, but someone like Steven Jackson or Kevin Jones is actually worth far more than Priest Holmes in a dynasty league. The good news is most owners don't understand this, which is why you could probably get either one of those backs and some other goodies in return for Priest.

 
I have a question for everybody regarding Preist and Dynasty rankings. If you could have Preist knowing that he will only play 2 more years but he will be the #1 back both years and lead the league in TD's, how would you rank him?IMO, he has to rank high. He can be the difference in winning your championship or not. Even though he only plays 2 years, so what if you WIN!This is an excellent example of why I think some guys undervalue good players. They put way too much emphasis on long term keeper potential. Let's remember 1 thing guys, people get injured and change teams. You don't know what's going to happen 3-4 years down the road. How many guys even last that long? The avg. life of a RB is what, 4 years?Thoughts?
Dynasty fantasy football involves a lot mathematics when it comes to valuing players like Holmes. Here is a simple and flawed mathematical analysis that shows why I think Kevin Jones is more valuable than Priest Holmes in dynasty leagues. Let's say Priest can be expected to score RB + 10 fantasy points per week in your league where RB1 is equal to the average point output of your league's average starting RB. As he gets older, his chances of reaching this production will decline. I'm using arbitrary numbers here, but the idea is sound:In 2005 he has an 80% chance to produce RB + 10In 2006 he has a 70% chance to produce RB + 10 In 2007 he has a 50% chance to produce RB + 10 In 2008 he has a 20% chance to produce RB + 10In 2009 he has a 5% chance to produce RB + 10His expected output over the next five years can be calculated as follows:(.8 x 10) + (.7 x 10) + (.5 x 10) + (.2 x 10) + (.05 x 10) = 22.5 (his expected value in a dynasty league)NOTE: The RB part is not included in the calculations because it's not what's important. What's important is the number added to the RB. That number very roughly represents the advantage Priest will give you over your opponents. Let's say Kevin Jones (when he hits his prime) can be expected to score RB + 5 points per week in your league where RB1 is equal to the average point output of your league's average starting RB. In 2005 he has a 60% chance to produce RB + 5In 2006 he has a 65% chance to produce RB + 5In 2007 he has a 65% chance to produce RB + 5In 2008 he has a 65% chance to produce RB + 5In 2009 he has a 65% chance to produce RB + 5In 2010 he has a 60% chance to produce RB + 5In 2011 he has a 45% chance to produce RB + 5In 2012 he has a 20% chance to produce RB + 5In 2013 he has a 10% chance to produce RB + 5In 2014 he has a 5% chance to produce RB + 5 (.6 x 5 x 2) + (.65 x 5 x 4) + (.45 x 5) + (.2 x 5) + (.1 x 5) + (.05 x 5) = 23 (his expected value in a dynasty league) 23 > 22.5KJ > Holmes A few notes:- This is a highly-flawed analysis for a number of reasons. Firstly, the number of expected points is completely abritrary. Everyone has a different scoring system. Maybe the gap between Holmes' upside and KJ's upside is bigger in that league. Maybe Jones actually has the potential to produce RB + 10 instead of RB + 5. - Also, the percentages used to determine the seasonal values are not likely to be very accurate with regards to their ability to predict production. In reality a much more complicated multiple variable system would be better for getting the expected production number each season. For example, I said KJ has a 65% of producing RB + 5 when he hits his prime, but that may be an inaccurate statistic. This is one of those situations where you need to substitute your own numbers as you see fit. If you think more highly of KJ then perhaps you'll bump his % up to 80. If you don't think highly of him then you might bump his % down to 40. - My point here was to show that their is some mathematical basis behind my belief that KJ is more valuable than Holmes in a dynasty league. Of course, it all depends on how you want to play the league. If you don't care about the future then Holmes is clearly your man. However, KJ is a better player to have if you are looking for long term production. He offers similar upside with the potential to be productive for a much greater period of time.
 
swits i do not believe Onetrio is the better talent of the 2. he has health issues nothing more. but yes i do think hes the better talent. theres plenty to read on it.

 
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swits i do not believe Onetrio is the better talent of the 2. he has health issues nothing more. but yes i do think hes the better talent. theres plenty to read on it.
Lemme get you straight. You think Bennett is the better talent between himself and Onterrio? OK :rotflmao: Bennett is a track star turned football player. He lacks vision and instincts, he was considered a raw prospect coming out but who had tremendous speed. Onterrio is a football player, he was considered a true first round talent thoroughbred, but fell due to off field issues. Onterrio has shown more on the field than Bennett has. I can't see why anyone would still think Bennett is the more talented. Incredible... nevertheless I digressMY dynasty rankings:1 Ladanian Tomlinson2 Clinton Portis3 Edgerrin James4 Deuce McCalister5 Priest Holmes6 Jamal Lewis7 Willis McGahee8 Onterrio Smith9 Chris Brown10 Shaun Alexander11 Ahman Green12 Stephen Jackson13 Thomas Jones14 Kevin Jones15 Fred Taylor16 Kevan Barlow17 Tiki Barber18 Lee Suggs19 Corey Dillon20 Julius Jones21 Deshaun Foster22 Brian Westbrook23 Tatum Bell24 Domanick Davis25 Michael Bennett26 Rudi Johnson27 Duce Staley28 Curtis Martin29 Warrick Dunn30 Reuben Droughns31 William Green32 Travis Henry33 Stephen Davis34 Lamont Jordan35 Justin Fargas
 
Lemme get you straight. You think Bennett is the better talent between himself and Onterrio? OK :rotflmao:
yup u know more then me i only scout for a living
Bennett is a track star turned football player. He lacks vision and instincts, he was considered a raw prospect coming out but who had tremendous speed.
we had this debate before. KJ was a track star shoot Randy Moss, TO i can name half the league who were track stars. uauly football players tend to play "track". his poor vision that u speak of allows him to scamper home run runs and make the pro bowl 2 years ago. barring injury hes a talented guy... very talented.
Onterrio is a football player, he was considered a true first round talent thoroughbred, but fell due to off field issues.
not one general manager considered Mr. Onterio Smith a 1st round talent. he had a 2nd round potential cielin gbut at the combine he was lazy in his representation. he had this "me" attitude as well. yes that attributed to his down fall and it appears there still is a reason why he was a 4th round selection...
Onterrio has shown more on the field than Bennett has. I can't see why anyone would still think Bennett is the more talented
sure this year he has he stepped in admirably well like i said hes got talent but i do no tthink hes "more" then Bennett. when Smith cleans up his act makes a probowl and proves the many scouts liek me and the 32 GM's wrong then i'll stand by my statement.go to the other 32 topics to get your disagreements if u will. but i will go off what i see on the field not from somone from a message board. i'm of personal beliefe that i wouldnt want either for a featured runner. they both carry weight. if i were to chose i'd take the guy u hate. :popcorn:
 
Lemme get you straight. You think Bennett is the better talent between himself and Onterrio? OK :rotflmao:
yup u know more then me i only scout for a living
I'm not here to knock on your profession, or anything... but ummm... yeah. I don't think you are a real scout. Sorry...

Bennett is a track star turned football player. He lacks vision and instincts, he was considered a raw prospect coming out but who had tremendous speed.
we had this debate before. KJ was a track star shoot Randy Moss, TO i can name half the league who were track stars. uauly football players tend to play "track". his poor vision that u speak of allows him to scamper home run runs and make the pro bowl 2 years ago. barring injury hes a talented guy... very talented.
Well, Mr. Scout, Bennett was a track star-turned-football-player. Moss and KJ were football players who also ran track, very different. His long TD runs were not the result of excellent vision, go back and watch film (that I am sure is available to the "scout") and you will see he had Mack-truck-sized-holes to run through, both in WIS and in MIN. The WIS line made Ron Dayne look good, of course Bennett looked good behind it. The MIN line made Moe Williams look good. Bennett has TERRIBLE vision. Alot of time there were holes that he missed. Some times he hit them and took the ball to the house, actually only THREE times... He was like a second tier replacement for the Pro Bowl, that's not Pro Bowl talent, that's running out of options...

Onterrio is a football player, he was considered a true first round talent thoroughbred, but fell due to off field issues.
not one general manager considered Mr. Onterio Smith a 1st round talent. he had a 2nd round potential cielin gbut at the combine he was lazy in his representation. he had this "me" attitude as well. yes that attributed to his down fall and it appears there still is a reason why he was a 4th round selection...
Now I know for certain you are not a scout. Not just the Vikes announced that they viewed him as a first round talent. Before the draft MANY, no MOST, scouts had him ranked as a first round talent...

here...How Would He Look in Steel Blue? The off-field problems may make Smith a non-factor on Houston's draft board, akin to which WR Antonio Bryant may have been for the Texans in the 2002 draft. It's a shame if that's the case, because Smith has oodles of talent and definite first round potential if he declares.
here...Several other players with Oregon connections might go in the first three rounds of Saturday’s NFL draft, and several more hope to be selected by Sunday’s seventh and final round. Oregon running back Onterrio Smith and safety Troy Polamalu, who grew up outside Roseburg, are projected first- or second-round picks. There’s an outside chance that OSU linebacker Nick Barnett will get taken early.
Onterrio has shown more on the field than Bennett has. I can't see why anyone would still think Bennett is the more talented
sure this year he has he stepped in admirably well like i said hes got talent but i do no tthink hes "more" then Bennett. when Smith cleans up his act makes a probowl and proves the many scouts liek me and the 32 GM's wrong then i'll stand by my statement.
Well, he'll prove the "scouts" like you wrong, the only GMs he'll prove wrong are the ones who thought he "wasn't worth the risk" which is all I've heard negative about him from GMs... not that he didn't have the talent

go to the other 32 topics to get your disagreements if u will. but i will go off what i see on the field not from somone from a message board. i'm of personal beliefe that i wouldnt want either for a featured runner. they both carry weight. if i were to chose i'd take the guy u hate. :popcorn:
Well, that explains why you probably don't field that great a team in your leagues... :P

This subject has been debated ad nauseum. I'm done with it. If people are still blind to talent, fine by me. If they want to make up jobs to make themselves seem more imressive, that's cool too. Hope it makes you feel better hendo

 
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its the same ol garbage with you swits. another day another song. bennett this smith that. :yawn: i'm not here to prove anyone my proffession and i really dont care if u think i am or not. and your wrong on Smith not one "scout" viewed him as a 1st round talent. a true 1st round talent with character issues slides about a round pending on the issues at hand. Moss slid and had "character" issues in 98 yet was gobbled up late 1st. dont always believe what the press feeds you. keep reading from your couch :yawn: :sleep:

 
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It seems to me that Arizona is in need of a long term replacement for the venerable Emmitt Smith. Da Knee Green really likes Bennett. If SOD does indeed make Bennett expendable I think Bennett still has a job in this league waiting for him.That being said I would prefer to have the Vikings Rb to Arizona's in the near to distant future.That is if there ever becomes a Viking feature Rb. ;) Decent list EBF as ushual. If I put the time into making one for this thread it probobly would not end up with many glaring differences.I am really behind the curve of things right now just returning from China and with a lot going on during football season. :hot: :hot: So I wont be making a list at this time. I have had a hard enough time figuring out my lineups of late much less long term planning. Hopefully my guesstimations prior to the season are good enough to carry me. :mellow: As far as the eternal age verus potential argument it always becomes a matter of personal preference in strategy, yourself as a owner and the dynamics of your league. There is more than one way to skin a cat and more than one way to win and develop a dynasty team. That is a large part of Dynasty appeal IMO.If I could trade Thomas Jones for Priest Holmes right now I certainly would do so. That some of you rank Jones higher than Priest is somewhat promising in that regard. I may have to explore this.

 
This is my first pass:1. Tomlinson2. McAllister3. Alexander4. Lewis5. McGahee6. Brown7. James8. Portis9. AGreen10. TJones11. Barber12. Jackson13. KJones14. OSmith15. Westbrook16. JJones17. Ricky18. Rudi19. DDavis20. Barlow21. Taylor22. Staley23. Holmes24. Pittman25. Shipp26. Dillon27. Suggs28. Foster29. Duckett30. Henry31. Droughns32. Bell33. Martin34. Dunn35. Rhodes

 
i'm not here to prove anyone my proffession and i really dont care if u think i am or not. and your wrong on Smith not one "scout" viewed him as a 1st round talent. a true 1st round talent with character issues slides about a round pending on the issues at hand.
I only believe what I hear from people I know ACTUALLY know what they are talking about. I can tell you from verifiable, real NFL scouts, ones I know, that Smith was viewed as a first round talent.But back to the dynasty RB rankings at hand...
 
i'm not here to prove anyone my proffession and i really dont care if u think i am or not. and your wrong on Smith not one "scout" viewed him as a 1st round talent. a true 1st round talent with character issues slides about a round pending on the issues at hand.
I only believe what I hear from people I know ACTUALLY know what they are talking about. I can tell you from verifiable, real NFL scouts, ones I know, that Smith was viewed as a first round talent.But back to the dynasty RB rankings at hand...
really? hhmmm well i think ur lieing. 1st round talents dont slide into the 4th. shoot McGahee blew out his knee and still was drafted in the 1st. with no recolation of a 100% return like he played pre-injury. i can sit here and name true 1st round grades if u like and we'll compare. character issues? look no further then where Moss was taken in 98. they dont fall 4 rounds. its smoke to promote the general managers butt on the pick. "O" was not a 1st round grade. him and Maurice Morris had high praise back at Oregon but neither carried a "1st" grade on many teams draft charts. which isnt exactly a bad thing considering how many top RB's are taken low 1st on. the thought on the position is evolvign more aroun dthe though tof u can get a comparable pick later in the draft now. thats evident with Stephen Jackson going with the 24th pick last year. and he graded 4's or 1 point higher to Smith going off there scouting reports. you keep dragging this out like that is the end all of who the better RB is too which i find funny. but those so called scouts u are talking about are make believe sir. :yawn:
 
you keep dragging this out like that is the end all of who the better RB is too which i find funny.
Actually pre-draft grades mean very little in reference to who is a better running back. Look at most of the RBs that have turned into HOF (or at least near) level players. Curtis Martin, Terrell Davis, Thurman Thomas, all caried second round or lower grades. So I dont think it means anything...I just haven't seen a single post on these boards that would indicate you are a scout, or even know any. Not the way you write, which is pretty important to scouting. Not in which players you've pointed out as good ones to have. Nothing indicates you have any knowledge of scouting even.You obviously don't work or National or Coyle, which uses a 9 point system, and did not have Steven Jackson in the 4's. Blesto uses a 5 point scale, but they didn't have Jackson in the 4's, because lower grades are better on Blesto's scale. GBN I believe uses a 9 point system as well...All I'm saying is your posts and your claim don't add up.
 
My top 50:

1. LaDainian Tomlinson

2. Shaun Alexander

3. Deuce McAllister

4. Clinton Portis

5. Jamal Lewis

6. Willis McGahee

7. Chris Brown

8. Edgerrin James

9. Steven Jackson

10. Priest Holmes

11. Ahman Green

12. Kevin Jones

13. Onterrio Smith

>> insert Tiki Barber here

14. Travis Henry

15. Domanick Davis

16. Fred Taylor

17. Michael Bennett

18. Brian Westbrook

19. Reuben Droughns

20. T.J. Duckett

21. Lee Suggs

22. Tatum Bell

23. DeShaun Foster

24. Thomas Jones

25. Kevan Barlow

26. Duce Staley

27. Corey Dillon

28. Curtis Martin

29. Rudi Johnson

30. Chris Perry

31. Warrick Dunn

32. Michael Pittman

33. Ricky Williams

34. Anthony Thomas

35. LaMont Jordan

36. Marcell Shipp

37. Stephen Davis

38. Derrick Blaylock

39. Maurice Morris

40. Marshall Faulk

41. Larry Johnson

42. Justin Fargas

43. William Green

44. Domanick Rhodes

45. Mewelde Moore

46. Lamar Gordon

47. Artose Pinner

48. Correll Buckhalter

49. Tony Hollings

50. Quentin Griffin

Edited to add Tiki :bag: Can't believe I left out Tiki! Thanks for pointing out my oversight.

 
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My top 50:1. LaDainian Tomlinson2. Shaun Alexander 3. Deuce McAllister4. Clinton Portis 5. Jamal Lewis6. Willis McGahee7. Chris Brown8. Edgerrin James9. Steven Jackson10. Priest Holmes11. Ahman Green12. Kevin Jones13. Onterrio Smith14. Travis Henry15. Domanick Davis16. Fred Taylor 17. Michael Bennett18. Brian Westbrook19. Reuben Droughns20. T.J. Duckett21. Lee Suggs22. Tatum Bell23. DeShaun Foster24. Thomas Jones25. Kevan Barlow26. Duce Staley27. Corey Dillon28. Curtis Martin29. Rudi Johnson30. Chris Perry31. Warrick Dunn32. Michael Pittman33. Ricky Williams34. Anthony Thomas35. LaMont Jordan 36. Marcell Shipp37. Stephen Davis38. Derrick Blaylock39. Maurice Morris40. Marshall Faulk41. Larry Johnson42. Justin Fargas 43. William Green44. Domanick Rhodes 45. Mewelde Moore46. Lamar Gordon47. Artose Pinner48. Correll Buckhalter49. Tony Hollings50. Quentin Griffin
no Tiki?
 
This might be sacrilegious, but the more and more I think about it, I question if Priest will play next season.....

 
This might be sacrilegious, but the more and more I think about it, I question if Priest will play next season.....
Not a stretch at all. Wasn't it his father that had to convince him to play this year?If KC flops down the stretch and/or Vermeil leaves, I can see him not having much incentive to play for a team in transition. He certainly doesn't seem like he's a guy that's in it for the money.
 

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