Hipple Long Ware & Peete
Footballguy
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Mike Bell back and raring to go (w/o knee brace) (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Hipple Long Ware & Peete
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Hipple Long Ware & Peete
Footballguy
any word out of saints homers how this is likely to shake out? If he's starting, he's a great WW grab. If Its gonna be 3 headed RBBC (bush, thomas, bell, hell even an occasional fullback move) this could be a real pain to figure out.
bulger2holt
Footballguy
Because he's not ?
Ladsud
Footballguy
That didnt take long, did I say he wasnt?
Devil in the Detail
Footballguy
Nope. He's done less than Bell did in his absence.
How could it be anything other than a 50/50 split the way Bell ran?? Pierre owners will be dissapointed IMO when they see the result of this. Bell will get a lot of carries
Pierre - starter 50 % of carries and 2-3 receptions a game
Bell - Short Yardage guy /' end of game rb - gets 30 % of carries
Bush - 3dn back getting 20% of carries and 3rd downs -- also 2 minute drill
IMO no NoLa backs have any serious value is all are healthy.
Pierre - starter 50 % of carries and 2-3 receptions a game
Bell - Short Yardage guy /' end of game rb - gets 30 % of carries
Bush - 3dn back getting 20% of carries and 3rd downs -- also 2 minute drill
IMO no NoLa backs have any serious value is all are healthy.
Holy Schneikes
Footballguy
I think this will primarily take opportunities away from the least productive member of the backfield - Reggie Bush. Think you might start to see Thomas in on more 3rd downs. When he is, the offense is considerably less predictable and more effective.
So Thomas gets a couple fewer carries on 1st and 2nd, but a few more on 3rd - about a wash. Bush gets fewer on 1st, 2nd, and 3rd. Bell will get a nice chunk on 1st and 2nd.
So Thomas gets a couple fewer carries on 1st and 2nd, but a few more on 3rd - about a wash. Bush gets fewer on 1st, 2nd, and 3rd. Bell will get a nice chunk on 1st and 2nd.
editor47
Footballguy
if anything is wrong in this statement i think it's the bolded part. based on the last two games, it appears thomas has some real value as the closer. i know bell was out those two games, but you can't discount what thomas did in the 2nd half vs. the bills and especialy the jets. i don't think it's 20/7 in pierre's advantage, but i think it's probably 17/10ish.
tihs is what we've been waiting for, though. so let's see what happens this week.
Todem
Footballguy
Doubt that. Reggie is a fantastic reciever out of the backfield.The Saints have a wonderful problem....a 3 headed monster. Despite what FF owners think in the NFL world Reggie causes severe matchup problems for LB's and safeties. So he will be part of the passing game a ton. First and 2nd downs I expect a 60/40 spilit between Thomas and Bell.
It will be very interesting to see how this does shake out.
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Kitrick Taylor
Footballguy
Just like Ray Rice and McGahee are destroying each others value? They are #6 and #7 respectively in my league.I think there are fantasy points aplenty for the backfield in NO. If Bell takes some of what Pierre was getting, okay. He'll be down to a low end #1 RB. My guess is it will go like many other backfields in the NFL. Starter (Pierre) gets 65% of the carries. The Saints have rushed 122 times in their 4 games. That's just over 30x a game. 19 carries a game for Pierre, 10 for Bell and 1 or 2 for Bush. Bush gets 65% of the receptions out of the backfield. Pierre gets 35%. To me the real loser in this situation is Bush. He may be limited to 5/6 offensive touches/game. He's just not as good of a RB as either Bell or Thomas. So why would they give it to him?
I think the Saints are playing this close to the vest. It wouldn't surprise me to see a 3 headed monster. Last year, there were some games when 3 rb's played. I would guess Thomas is ahead of Bell. Where Bell could be of value is closing out a game.
I am a homer but am as clueless as eveyone.
I am a homer but am as clueless as eveyone.
If you exclude his punt/kick returns I don't know if that's as crazy as you claim.
Doctor Detroit
Please remove your headgear
Don't "offensive touches" already exclude punt/kick returns?Reggie Bush had had 6/7 touches only in one game ever, his rookie season, in the final game of the regular season that had no playoff implications.
I'm not even counting the punt/kicks. We are talking about carries and receptions. There is absolutely no way he only gets 6/7 a game avg out, let alone even having a single game with less than 6/7 touches.
I'm not even counting the punt/kicks. We are talking about carries and receptions. There is absolutely no way he only gets 6/7 a game avg out, let alone even having a single game with less than 6/7 touches.
PT - 33/212 6.4 pc - 5/42 3 TDsBell - 45/229 5.1 pc - 1/9 1 TDMore yards and more TDs in fewer touches. PT is the #28 RB in a basic scoring league having only played 6 quarters of football. Bell is very useful and he runs very hard, but PT is the better back. Both a viable fantasy starters.Who would think the Saints are the most balanced team in the NFL?
It's not impossible. Payton seems to understand that Bush is the 3rd best RB on the roster. I think PT is a sure thing barring injury, I'm curious to see the balance between Bell and Bush.
PosterNutBag
Footballguy
I heard Adam Caplan getting interviewed on Westwood One radio just before the 1pm kickoffs this past Sunday and he was saying that he heard from Saints coaches last week that the Bell/Thomas carry split will be close to even going forward (if both of them are healthy). Caplan's point was that Bell will be involved in the offense (and not sitting on the bench just backing up Thomas waiting for his chance). There is also Reggie Bush to get some carries, but he has proven he can't function in the same role as Thomas/Bell.
This Saints RB situation could be a mess going forward if Thomas/Bell keep switching off who scores the goalline TDs, busts the big runs, etc. It's a good problem to have for the Saints, but it makes this RBBC situation hard to deal with for many of us.
This Saints RB situation could be a mess going forward if Thomas/Bell keep switching off who scores the goalline TDs, busts the big runs, etc. It's a good problem to have for the Saints, but it makes this RBBC situation hard to deal with for many of us.
yellowdog
Footballguy
He had 9 touches against NYJ, with only one other healthy back. Not saying I agree with the 6/7 touches, but I wouldn't say "no way" either.
Which defenses did each guy face and did they face those defenses at the right time (i.e., injuries to starters)? Home vs. away games...?I think each guy is good in that offense. However, I think Brees is better with Bell in there. I recall his stats being gawdy the first few weeks and then trailing off when PT took over.Every Brees owner should be lobbying the Saints to play Bell over PT. Just Sayin'
I'm in a 16 team league where I have both Thomas and Bell. Now I wish Thomas would be the main guy but it doesn't look like that will happen. I'm a bit nervous because I'm not sure what to do come Sunday. Thomas is starting for me for sure but not sure if I should Bell in there too.
Goldfinger007
Footballguy
I don't know what some of you guys are seeing that evidently I'm not. I get that its hard not to root for Mike Bell. He runs hard and played very well when given his chance, but PT just adds a whole new dimension of explosiveness to that running game and obviously has a nose for the end zone. Don't get me wrong, Bell has definitely earned the right to pick up a few carries, but an even split with PT? Im not seeing that one at all.
Nigel Tufnel
Footballguy
Whoever does the top 200 looks to be firmly in the Thomas camp.
Judge Smails
Footballguy
Goldfinger gets it.
BoulderBob
Footballguy
It will be very close to 50/50, imo...60/40 in favor of the back who looks the best in the first half is probably the best we can hope for. Both of these backs are running very hard and with AGRESSION, as Mike Bell put it, and if the Saints play this right and have both backs close to 100% throughout the game it will be very fun to watch(not for fantasy owners, of course).
Breesisdaman
Footballguy
*cough* RBBC *cough*
CalBear
Footballguy
How can it be a 50/50 split the way Thomas is running? Pierre is averaging over 6 yards per carry and has 3 TDs on 33 carries; Mike Bell is averaging 5.1 and has 1 TD on 45 carries.
Breesisdaman
Footballguy
Payton will play the hot hand each and every game. There will be no set number of carries established until the backs show what they are going to do in the game. If PT comes out and looks a lot better than Bell as most of you PT owners claim its no contest then carries will be in PT's favor. Likewise, Bell coming back if he has a big day going look for PT to lose carries. It will be an in game competition for carries. Payton has said it and it has been documented and now for the first time in a regular season game both backs will be healthy. The Saints will need them against the Gmen.
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Thomas has been much more explosive than bell, and is a much better receiver. However, the saints still have some work to do shoring up the short yardage work...maybe there is an opportunity for him there, but the few carries he's had this year were no more impressive than thomas (go back and watch is TD run in the Philly game...WEAK!!!).
Here's the numbers I pull out of my ###, based on the average of 29 carries and 8 targets (roughly the average so far this year), and assuming bell, thomas and bush all healthy.
Thomas 16 carries, 3 targets
Bush 5 carries, 5 targets
Bell 8 carries, no targets
Here's the numbers I pull out of my ###, based on the average of 29 carries and 8 targets (roughly the average so far this year), and assuming bell, thomas and bush all healthy.
Thomas 16 carries, 3 targets
Bush 5 carries, 5 targets
Bell 8 carries, no targets
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Devil in the Detail
Footballguy
Based on Payton's comments earlier in the season re: Bell being the lead back, I think Bell will be getting more of the carries than Pierre (and the goal line carries) for the last 2/3 of the season.
Not sure what you've been watching.Why would Bell become the starter when Thomas played awesome last season and picked up where he left off (and more) in his six quarters this year? Because some guy who was cut by the Broncos had two good games?Hell, I'll buy the 50/50 claims (although it will absolutely shock me), but barring injury, there is absolutely, positively no way Bell gets 2/3 of the carries while Thomas sits the bench.OK, I stopped being lazy...
Bell has played against DET and PHI.
Thomas has played against BUF and NYJ.
I'd call that a push regarding the skill level of their defensive opponents. However, in both games that Bell played, Brees went off (6 TDs and 3 TDs, respectively). In both games that Thomas played, Brees couldn't break 200 passing yards and has NOT thrown a TD.
I think these guys produce similarly. I believe that if Bell had played against BUF and NYJ, his production would have been pretty close to what PT ended up with.
Those suggesting that PT is such a better RB than Bell are delusional.
I really wonder what Brees is thinking here...
Bell has played against DET and PHI.
Thomas has played against BUF and NYJ.
I'd call that a push regarding the skill level of their defensive opponents. However, in both games that Bell played, Brees went off (6 TDs and 3 TDs, respectively). In both games that Thomas played, Brees couldn't break 200 passing yards and has NOT thrown a TD.
I think these guys produce similarly. I believe that if Bell had played against BUF and NYJ, his production would have been pretty close to what PT ended up with.
Those suggesting that PT is such a better RB than Bell are delusional.
I really wonder what Brees is thinking here...
Gopher State
Footballguy
It end up being a 70-30 split in favor of PT
People who think Bell is a better back, have blinders on.
Bell is a 3rd string back plain and simple
People who think Bell is a better back, have blinders on.
Bell is a 3rd string back plain and simple
CalBear
Footballguy
You realize we're talking about the Detroit Lions, not the Detroit Red Wings, right? Detroit's defense is allowing 5.2 yards/carry (#32 in the league).
You think that someone who averaged 5.6 yards/carry against Detroit would have averaged 9.00 yards/carry against Buffalo?
Bills_Fan11
Footballguy
For the life of me I don't understand what you're saying. That defenses are so concerned with Mike Bell that they become easier to throw against?
Ok, you're the second person I've seen make this point. What are you getting at? That Bell is the better blitz-picker-upper? Brees is inspired to play better when Bell is in there? Not sure how Brees' better games are a reflection on who's in at running back. Also, can you tell us the punter's net average when Bell plays compared to Thomas?
You clearly haven't watched a Saints game, yet you think that people thinking PT is the better back are delusional? Try watching them play. Bell has been great, running with authority and did a great job in PTs absence, but PT is simply the better all around back. He picks up the tough yardage as well as Bell, but is more likely to bust a long one as well as being more effective in the passing game.Your Brees comments are ridiculous. In the two games that PT played the defense was outstanding, in the two games Bell played the defense was nothing special. I wonder what the defense thinks.
Nope, him both times.
Bills_Fan11
Footballguy
Imagine how sick Peyton Manning's #'s would be if he had Mike Bell in the backfield.
Or Jake Plummer. Oh wait. Nevermind.
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MCguidance
Footballguy
Worth a flier.
