Mike Williams, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2011 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

With the labor uncertainty, there are more unanswered questions entering the summer than usual. The good news is that gives us some more time to discuss the merits of players without having to react (or overreact) to the smallest bits of news about a slight injury in practice, or coach speak. We'll have plenty of time for that when it comes (we hope).

In the meantime, as always we will post a list of players to be discussed each week. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discuss expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Mike Williams, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Player Page Link: Mike Williams Player Page

Each article will include:

[*]Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member

[*]Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads

[*]FBG Projections

[*]Consensus Member Projections

The Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

[*]Focus commentary on the player (or players) in question, and your expectations for said player (or players)

[*]Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"

[*]Avoid redundancies or ... this should be about incremental analysis or debate

While not a requirement, we strongly encourage you to provide your own projections for the player (players):

Projections should include:

[*]For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Attempts, Rush Yards, Rush TDs

[*]For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

[*]For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

Now let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 

[Instinctive]

Should I repost the relevant info from the thread I started?

 

[Grahamburn]

An early ADP of WR13 is too rich for my blood. Does anybody remember Michael Clayton? I'd much rather have more reliable guys drafted after him such as Brandon Marshall, Wes Welker, or Jeremy Maclin. The thread that Instinctive references is worth reading, too, if you are considering drafting Mike. I'm certain he won't be on any of my teams this year. He might blow up, but I'd rather opt for a safer option at that point in the draft.

I don't have enough of a feel on this guy to provide a projection at this time.

 

[Detroit Revival]

Williams will outproduce last year.

The positives:

-2nd Year with Freeman throwing to him. Their chemistry will continue to develop.

-Freeman himself is still developing and getting better. Last year was Freeman's first starting all 16. There was a distinct improvement in the last half of the season compared to the 1st (TD:INT - Games 1-8 2:1 - G.9-16 - 15:1)

-Looked good through all 16 games - didn't hit the rookie wall. (Early bye week so he was playing from week 5 on)

-Steady production (Did not have more than one game in a row last year without a TD.)

Negatives

-DUI last year (under legal limit but may call into question character issues)

-If Benn emerges this year it would take away from Williams' production.

I'm sure i'm missing some things but I see a better season than last for Williams. Somewhere in the WR8-12 range.

78/1125/12 for the season

 

[We Tigers]

Does anybody remember Mike Wallace? Calvin Johnson? Austin Collie? Hakeem Nicks? DeSean Jackson? We can go back and forth all day listing players who did or didn't continue to perform after a strong rookie season. The only reason people bring up Clayton is because it's Tampa Bay, and it's a lazy comparison.

Scoring 10+ TDs in consecutive years is hard to do. Roddy White did it last year, and in the 6 years before that the only people who did it were Fitz, Moss, TO, and Marvin Harrison. I doubt Williams is close to that class of player yet, especially considering how few rushing TDs Freeman and Blount scored last year. Still, I think he improves his receptions and yardage enough to just about balance that out. Benn is a good player, but Williams is the star here.

136 targets (8.5/game), 77 rec, 1155 yds, 8 TDs.

 

[Instinctive]

Does anybody remember Mike Wallace? Calvin Johnson? Austin Collie? Hakeem Nicks? DeSean Jackson? We can go back and forth all day listing players who did or didn't continue to perform after a strong rookie season. The only reason people bring up Clayton is because it's Tampa Bay, and it's a lazy comparison.Scoring 10+ TDs in consecutive years is hard to do. Roddy White did it last year, and in the 6 years before that the only people who did it were Fitz, Moss, TO, and Marvin Harrison. I doubt Williams is close to that class of player yet, especially considering how few rushing TDs Freeman and Blount scored last year. Still, I think he improves his receptions and yardage enough to just about balance that out. Benn is a good player, but Williams is the star here.136 targets (8.5/game), 77 rec, 1155 yds, 8 TDs.

Really? I think the reason to bring up Clayton is that of all the rookies ever to have over 900 yards receiving in their rookie season, the only one with a catch percentage worse than the 50.8% of Mike Williams is Roy Williams. Now, that doesn't mean he's going to bust. In fact, he could have a great season like Roy Williams. But it is a red flag. His catch percentage is historically low for a rookie with the yardage and TDs he had, and the type of player he is.

 

[We Tigers]

Does anybody remember Mike Wallace? Calvin Johnson? Austin Collie? Hakeem Nicks? DeSean Jackson? We can go back and forth all day listing players who did or didn't continue to perform after a strong rookie season. The only reason people bring up Clayton is because it's Tampa Bay, and it's a lazy comparison.Scoring 10+ TDs in consecutive years is hard to do. Roddy White did it last year, and in the 6 years before that the only people who did it were Fitz, Moss, TO, and Marvin Harrison. I doubt Williams is close to that class of player yet, especially considering how few rushing TDs Freeman and Blount scored last year. Still, I think he improves his receptions and yardage enough to just about balance that out. Benn is a good player, but Williams is the star here.136 targets (8.5/game), 77 rec, 1155 yds, 8 TDs.

Really? I think the reason to bring up Clayton is that of all the rookies ever to have over 900 yards receiving in their rookie season, the only one with a catch percentage worse than the 50.8% of Mike Williams is Roy Williams. Now, that doesn't mean he's going to bust. In fact, he could have a great season like Roy Williams. But it is a red flag. His catch percentage is historically low for a rookie with the yardage and TDs he had, and the type of player he is.

The low catch percentage is an argument with some merit, but what does it have to do with Michael Clayton, who caught 80 of 122 targets his rookie season?

 

[Zdravko]

I can accept the high TD ratio assumptions. I can accept the 15 ypc assumptions. But I just don't see those 8.5 targets per game materializing.

I expect Tampa to throw less, not more. I expect Mike Williams to see a smaller, not larger percentage of the targets.

I don't see how he will actually improve to 8.5/game.

75/1000/8

 

[cheese]

I can accept the high TD ratio assumptions. I can accept the 15 ypc assumptions. But I just don't see those 8.5 targets per game materializing.

I expect Tampa to throw less, not more. I expect Mike Williams to see a smaller, not larger percentage of the targets.

I don't see how he will actually improve to 8.5/game.

75/1000/8

I'm interested in why you think this. Personally, I guess I'm expecting more of the same minus a TD or 2. He's a pretty good NFL wide out that is the clear-cut #1 option for his offense. That simple fact alone will keep him getting some steady points. His upside is entirely tied to the possibility that his QB takes a huge leap into stardom one of these days. Even if he doesn't, I would say he's as "safe" a 2nd year guy as you will see. I think its fair to use last year's numbers as a baseline here and I'd lean towards a few extra big plays.

68/1015/9

 

[Norseman]

Does anybody remember Mike Wallace? Calvin Johnson? Austin Collie? Hakeem Nicks? DeSean Jackson? We can go back and forth all day listing players who did or didn't continue to perform after a strong rookie season. The only reason people bring up Clayton is because it's Tampa Bay, and it's a lazy comparison.Scoring 10+ TDs in consecutive years is hard to do. Roddy White did it last year, and in the 6 years before that the only people who did it were Fitz, Moss, TO, and Marvin Harrison. I doubt Williams is close to that class of player yet, especially considering how few rushing TDs Freeman and Blount scored last year. Still, I think he improves his receptions and yardage enough to just about balance that out. Benn is a good player, but Williams is the star here.136 targets (8.5/game), 77 rec, 1155 yds, 8 TDs.

Really? I think the reason to bring up Clayton is that of all the rookies ever to have over 900 yards receiving in their rookie season, the only one with a catch percentage worse than the 50.8% of Mike Williams is Roy Williams. Now, that doesn't mean he's going to bust. In fact, he could have a great season like Roy Williams. But it is a red flag. His catch percentage is historically low for a rookie with the yardage and TDs he had, and the type of player he is.

The low catch percentage is an argument with some merit, but what does it have to do with Michael Clayton, who caught 80 of 122 targets his rookie season?

The point was simply to temper expectations. Guys who don't catch very well don't last very long as wide receivers. Clayton performed better than Williams and ended up busting. What would be the point of mentioning a player who performed worse and ended up busting?You can whine about the comparison all you want and act like that's the end of it, but can you justify drafting Williams above proven players like Brandon Marshall or Wes Welker? The risk factor is very high here and I don't see a justification for a WR13 draft pick on this guy.

Clayton busted because he stopped working hard, and he got paid as a first rounder. Williams hasn't gotten paid like Clayton yet. Will he not work as hard, time will tell. My bet would be that he still thinks that he has something to prove.

 

[Instinctive]

Does anybody remember Mike Wallace? Calvin Johnson? Austin Collie? Hakeem Nicks? DeSean Jackson? We can go back and forth all day listing players who did or didn't continue to perform after a strong rookie season. The only reason people bring up Clayton is because it's Tampa Bay, and it's a lazy comparison.Scoring 10+ TDs in consecutive years is hard to do. Roddy White did it last year, and in the 6 years before that the only people who did it were Fitz, Moss, TO, and Marvin Harrison. I doubt Williams is close to that class of player yet, especially considering how few rushing TDs Freeman and Blount scored last year. Still, I think he improves his receptions and yardage enough to just about balance that out. Benn is a good player, but Williams is the star here.136 targets (8.5/game), 77 rec, 1155 yds, 8 TDs.

Really? I think the reason to bring up Clayton is that of all the rookies ever to have over 900 yards receiving in their rookie season, the only one with a catch percentage worse than the 50.8% of Mike Williams is Roy Williams. Now, that doesn't mean he's going to bust. In fact, he could have a great season like Roy Williams. But it is a red flag. His catch percentage is historically low for a rookie with the yardage and TDs he had, and the type of player he is.

The low catch percentage is an argument with some merit, but what does it have to do with Michael Clayton, who caught 80 of 122 targets his rookie season?

The point was simply to temper expectations. Guys who don't catch very well don't last very long as wide receivers. Clayton performed better than Williams and ended up busting. What would be the point of mentioning a player who performed worse and ended up busting?You can whine about the comparison all you want and act like that's the end of it, but can you justify drafting Williams above proven players like Brandon Marshall or Wes Welker? The risk factor is very high here and I don't see a justification for a WR13 draft pick on this guy.

Clayton busted because he stopped working hard, and he got paid as a first rounder. Williams hasn't gotten paid like Clayton yet. Will he not work as hard, time will tell. My bet would be that he still thinks that he has something to prove.

Well yeah...he needs to prove he can actually catch the ball more than half the time...

 

[We Tigers]

Does anybody remember Mike Wallace? Calvin Johnson? Austin Collie? Hakeem Nicks? DeSean Jackson? We can go back and forth all day listing players who did or didn't continue to perform after a strong rookie season. The only reason people bring up Clayton is because it's Tampa Bay, and it's a lazy comparison.

Scoring 10+ TDs in consecutive years is hard to do. Roddy White did it last year, and in the 6 years before that the only people who did it were Fitz, Moss, TO, and Marvin Harrison. I doubt Williams is close to that class of player yet, especially considering how few rushing TDs Freeman and Blount scored last year. Still, I think he improves his receptions and yardage enough to just about balance that out. Benn is a good player, but Williams is the star here.

136 targets (8.5/game), 77 rec, 1155 yds, 8 TDs.

Really? I think the reason to bring up Clayton is that of all the rookies ever to have over 900 yards receiving in their rookie season, the only one with a catch percentage worse than the 50.8% of Mike Williams is Roy Williams. Now, that doesn't mean he's going to bust. In fact, he could have a great season like Roy Williams. But it is a red flag. His catch percentage is historically low for a rookie with the yardage and TDs he had, and the type of player he is.

The low catch percentage is an argument with some merit, but what does it have to do with Michael Clayton, who caught 80 of 122 targets his rookie season?

The point was simply to temper expectations. Guys who don't catch very well don't last very long as wide receivers. Clayton performed better than Williams and ended up busting. What would be the point of mentioning a player who performed worse and ended up busting?

I know you said you don't have a projection for Williams yet, but what's your broad feeling on him, at least? Are we talking "he only catches 50 balls this year" or a total collapse? Michael Clayton went from 1200 yards and 7 TDs to almost nothing. 32 catches, 0 TDs. From 160 fantasy points to 37! I don't think it's unreasonable to find a comparison to Clayton, the biggest rookie-to-sophomore flame-out in the past decade, to be pretty hyperbolic unless you really do think Williams is going to wash out completely this season.

You can whine about the comparison all you want and act like that's the end of it, but can you justify drafting Williams above proven players like Brandon Marshall or Wes Welker? The risk factor is very high here and I don't see a justification for a WR13 draft pick on this guy.

Absolutely above Welker. I don't have Welker pegged for more than 80 receptions, ~900 yards, and a handful of TDs this year. The Patriots have two tight ends who get a ton of looks and eat up a lot of Welker's over-the-middle routes. I don't see him having much upside at all. Marshall I see about equivalent to Williams this year; the only thing he was missing last season was the TDs. I like both guys somewhere in the #10-#15 group.

 

[Multiple Scores]

Being I play in non ppr I would take mw over welker based on expectation and over Marshall because he's the bigger turd.

Does anybody remember Mike Wallace? Calvin Johnson? Austin Collie? Hakeem Nicks? DeSean Jackson? We can go back and forth all day listing players who did or didn't continue to perform after a strong rookie season. The only reason people bring up Clayton is because it's Tampa Bay, and it's a lazy comparison.Scoring 10+ TDs in consecutive years is hard to do. Roddy White did it last year, and in the 6 years before that the only people who did it were Fitz, Moss, TO, and Marvin Harrison. I doubt Williams is close to that class of player yet, especially considering how few rushing TDs Freeman and Blount scored last year. Still, I think he improves his receptions and yardage enough to just about balance that out. Benn is a good player, but Williams is the star here.136 targets (8.5/game), 77 rec, 1155 yds, 8 TDs.

Really? I think the reason to bring up Clayton is that of all the rookies ever to have over 900 yards receiving in their rookie season, the only one with a catch percentage worse than the 50.8% of Mike Williams is Roy Williams. Now, that doesn't mean he's going to bust. In fact, he could have a great season like Roy Williams. But it is a red flag. His catch percentage is historically low for a rookie with the yardage and TDs he had, and the type of player he is.

The low catch percentage is an argument with some merit, but what does it have to do with Michael Clayton, who caught 80 of 122 targets his rookie season?

The point was simply to temper expectations. Guys who don't catch very well don't last very long as wide receivers. Clayton performed better than Williams and ended up busting. What would be the point of mentioning a player who performed worse and ended up busting?You can whine about the comparison all you want and act like that's the end of it, but can you justify drafting Williams above proven players like Brandon Marshall or Wes Welker? The risk factor is very high here and I don't see a justification for a WR13 draft pick on this guy.

 

[DropKick]

Does anybody remember Mike Wallace? Calvin Johnson? Austin Collie? Hakeem Nicks? DeSean Jackson? We can go back and forth all day listing players who did or didn't continue to perform after a strong rookie season. The only reason people bring up Clayton is because it's Tampa Bay, and it's a lazy comparison.Scoring 10+ TDs in consecutive years is hard to do. Roddy White did it last year, and in the 6 years before that the only people who did it were Fitz, Moss, TO, and Marvin Harrison. I doubt Williams is close to that class of player yet, especially considering how few rushing TDs Freeman and Blount scored last year. Still, I think he improves his receptions and yardage enough to just about balance that out. Benn is a good player, but Williams is the star here.136 targets (8.5/game), 77 rec, 1155 yds, 8 TDs.

Really? I think the reason to bring up Clayton is that of all the rookies ever to have over 900 yards receiving in their rookie season, the only one with a catch percentage worse than the 50.8% of Mike Williams is Roy Williams. Now, that doesn't mean he's going to bust. In fact, he could have a great season like Roy Williams. But it is a red flag. His catch percentage is historically low for a rookie with the yardage and TDs he had, and the type of player he is.

The low catch percentage is an argument with some merit, but what does it have to do with Michael Clayton, who caught 80 of 122 targets his rookie season?

The point was simply to temper expectations. Guys who don't catch very well don't last very long as wide receivers. Clayton performed better than Williams and ended up busting. What would be the point of mentioning a player who performed worse and ended up busting?You can whine about the comparison all you want and act like that's the end of it, but can you justify drafting Williams above proven players like Brandon Marshall or Wes Welker? The risk factor is very high here and I don't see a justification for a WR13 draft pick on this guy.

Clayton busted because he stopped working hard, and he got paid as a first rounder. Williams hasn't gotten paid like Clayton yet. Will he not work as hard, time will tell. My bet would be that he still thinks that he has something to prove.

Well yeah...he needs to prove he can actually catch the ball more than half the time...

You're hanging your hat on that simple metric... I think what Williams accomplished - essentially stepping into a #1 role - is remarkable for a rookie.

 

[Go deep]

Does anybody remember Mike Wallace? Calvin Johnson? Austin Collie? Hakeem Nicks? DeSean Jackson? We can go back and forth all day listing players who did or didn't continue to perform after a strong rookie season. The only reason people bring up Clayton is because it's Tampa Bay, and it's a lazy comparison.

Scoring 10+ TDs in consecutive years is hard to do. Roddy White did it last year, and in the 6 years before that the only people who did it were Fitz, Moss, TO, and Marvin Harrison. I doubt Williams is close to that class of player yet, especially considering how few rushing TDs Freeman and Blount scored last year. Still, I think he improves his receptions and yardage enough to just about balance that out. Benn is a good player, but Williams is the star here.

136 targets (8.5/game), 77 rec, 1155 yds, 8 TDs.

Really? I think the reason to bring up Clayton is that of all the rookies ever to have over 900 yards receiving in their rookie season, the only one with a catch percentage worse than the 50.8% of Mike Williams is Roy Williams. Now, that doesn't mean he's going to bust. In fact, he could have a great season like Roy Williams. But it is a red flag. His catch percentage is historically low for a rookie with the yardage and TDs he had, and the type of player he is.

What makes these two numbers significant? What about rookie WR's to have a catch % between 50-55 that had at least 600 yards, or 700 yards? How many rookie WR's have caught for over 900 yards and had a catch % higher than 55%? What does Michael Clayton and Mike Williams have in common other than their first name and team they played for? Clayton caiught 69% of his targets.

Im not saying these things dont matter, but i am failing to see how.

 

[Instinctive]

Clayton busted because he stopped working hard, and he got paid as a first rounder. Williams hasn't gotten paid like Clayton yet. Will he not work as hard, time will tell. My bet would be that he still thinks that he has something to prove.

Well yeah...he needs to prove he can actually catch the ball more than half the time...

You're hanging your hat on that simple metric... I think what Williams accomplished - essentially stepping into a #1 role - is remarkable for a rookie.

My position is being blown out of proportion - especially on a tongue in cheek statement like the one above.All I'm saying is, I think there's a reason to temper expectations, and if he does bust - we had some warning signs. I don't have projections yet for anyone, but if I had to throw one out right now, I would say he probably gets 50-60 catches, 850-1000 yards, and 7-9 TDs. Actually, it wouldn't surprise me if he improved from his rookie year. However, it also wouldn't surprise me if he was a bust.The way I run my teams and the way that I draft, he'll be on my team, depending on who else has gone and who I have, no earlier than mid late third round, and about WR16-18 or so. I would just much rather go with a safer floor player with a similar ceiling at that point because there are warning signs.I just think he's very volatile. Not the kind of guy I want to draft, because I like to run a risk averse team. My opinion on him is that he is very talented, but purely based on last year, he might have some hands issues.EDIT: I'm going to revise that. I think he goes 50ish-700ish-6ish OR he goes 80-1200-double digits. I just think that the chance of the former is too high for me to take the risk of getting the latter.

 

[Instinctive]

Does anybody remember Mike Wallace? Calvin Johnson? Austin Collie? Hakeem Nicks? DeSean Jackson? We can go back and forth all day listing players who did or didn't continue to perform after a strong rookie season. The only reason people bring up Clayton is because it's Tampa Bay, and it's a lazy comparison.

Scoring 10+ TDs in consecutive years is hard to do. Roddy White did it last year, and in the 6 years before that the only people who did it were Fitz, Moss, TO, and Marvin Harrison. I doubt Williams is close to that class of player yet, especially considering how few rushing TDs Freeman and Blount scored last year. Still, I think he improves his receptions and yardage enough to just about balance that out. Benn is a good player, but Williams is the star here.

136 targets (8.5/game), 77 rec, 1155 yds, 8 TDs.

Really? I think the reason to bring up Clayton is that of all the rookies ever to have over 900 yards receiving in their rookie season, the only one with a catch percentage worse than the 50.8% of Mike Williams is Roy Williams. Now, that doesn't mean he's going to bust. In fact, he could have a great season like Roy Williams. But it is a red flag. His catch percentage is historically low for a rookie with the yardage and TDs he had, and the type of player he is.

What makes these two numbers significant? What about rookie WR's to have a catch % between 50-55 that had at least 600 yards, or 700 yards? How many rookie WR's have caught for over 900 yards and had a catch % higher than 55%? What does Michael Clayton and Mike Williams have in common other than their first name and team they played for? Clayton caiught 69% of his targets.

Im not saying these things dont matter, but i am failing to see how.

I don't believe I have compared him to Clayton. And I don't know what significance those numbers have beyond that I simply took the top 3 rookie receivers every year for the past decade or so and that happened to be about the range they were in.The fact that Clayton comes up is only in that he was one of the guys who was the top rookie receiver in his year - the fact that he busted is irrelevant, except perhaps to say that even guys who don't have the risk can bust. I'm not the guy (not that you are either) who is fixated on Clayton. I am worried about him being Roy WIlliams or Braylon w/o a huge third year.

 

[Go deep]

Does anybody remember Mike Wallace? Calvin Johnson? Austin Collie? Hakeem Nicks? DeSean Jackson? We can go back and forth all day listing players who did or didn't continue to perform after a strong rookie season. The only reason people bring up Clayton is because it's Tampa Bay, and it's a lazy comparison.

Scoring 10+ TDs in consecutive years is hard to do. Roddy White did it last year, and in the 6 years before that the only people who did it were Fitz, Moss, TO, and Marvin Harrison. I doubt Williams is close to that class of player yet, especially considering how few rushing TDs Freeman and Blount scored last year. Still, I think he improves his receptions and yardage enough to just about balance that out. Benn is a good player, but Williams is the star here.

136 targets (8.5/game), 77 rec, 1155 yds, 8 TDs.

Really? I think the reason to bring up Clayton is that of all the rookies ever to have over 900 yards receiving in their rookie season, the only one with a catch percentage worse than the 50.8% of Mike Williams is Roy Williams. Now, that doesn't mean he's going to bust. In fact, he could have a great season like Roy Williams. But it is a red flag. His catch percentage is historically low for a rookie with the yardage and TDs he had, and the type of player he is.

What makes these two numbers significant? What about rookie WR's to have a catch % between 50-55 that had at least 600 yards, or 700 yards? How many rookie WR's have caught for over 900 yards and had a catch % higher than 55%? What does Michael Clayton and Mike Williams have in common other than their first name and team they played for? Clayton caiught 69% of his targets.

Im not saying these things dont matter, but i am failing to see how.

I don't believe I have compared him to Clayton. And I don't know what significance those numbers have beyond that I simply took the top 3 rookie receivers every year for the past decade or so and that happened to be about the range they were in.The fact that Clayton comes up is only in that he was one of the guys who was the top rookie receiver in his year - the fact that he busted is irrelevant, except perhaps to say that even guys who don't have the risk can bust. I'm not the guy (not that you are either) who is fixated on Clayton. I am worried about him being Roy WIlliams or Braylon w/o a huge third year.

Edwards didnt have 900 yards his rookie year. I understand being skeptical of Williams, im certainly not thinking he is the 2nd coming of Fitzgerald, but i dont see the comparisons to Roy Williams. I always thought RWilliams was more athlete than WR. He got by on his freakish athleticism, but never looked like he completely understood the position. I dont see that with Mike Williams, i think it is almost the opposite. Not that he isnt a good athlete, but he looks like he is a natural WR. For the record Calvin Johnson had almost an identical catch % during his rookie year.

I do think Mike Williams will be overrated a bit in redrafts this year, but i think he is a pretty safe bet for WR2 numbers if he stays healthy and out of trouble.

134 targets, 74 rec, 1060 yards, 8 TD's

 

[Instinctive]

Calvin Johnson was injured. And it seems like you're just nitpicking at this point.

I just think Williams has a poor risk/reward ratio this year. He does well again next season...then it's another story. I don't really really rank guys, I do tiering and draft/don't draft type planning, and this year, Williams would be on the avoid until rally good value list, due to the risk.

 

[Zdravko]

I do think Mike Williams will be overrated a bit in redrafts this year, but i think he is a pretty safe bet for WR2 numbers if he stays healthy and out of trouble.134 targets, 74 rec, 1060 yards, 8 TD's

this

 

[massraider]

Calvin Johnson was injured. And it seems like you're just nitpicking at this point.I just think Williams has a poor risk/reward ratio this year. He does well again next season...then it's another story. I don't really really rank guys, I do tiering and draft/don't draft type planning, and this year, Williams would be on the avoid until rally good value list, due to the risk.

I want to know where he becomes good value. Who are the 15+ WRs you take over him? I am ready to believe he might be a bit overrated, but I have a tough time coming up with that many WRs I like better.

 

[Go deep]

Calvin Johnson was injured. And it seems like you're just nitpicking at this point.

I just think Williams has a poor risk/reward ratio this year. He does well again next season...then it's another story. I don't really really rank guys, I do tiering and draft/don't draft type planning, and this year, Williams would be on the avoid until rally good value list, due to the risk.

Andre Johnson caught 55% of his targets in his rookie year, and he caught for over 900 yards. I wasnt nitpicking, just giving some examples of other players that seem to fit the criteria.

Im not arguing wether he has risk or not, just looking for reasons why...or why not. Everyone has risk, especially rookies/young players, i just dont see any reason that Williams has any more(or less) than other WR's under similar circumstances.

 

[Grahamburn]

I might have my goggles on, but it looks like some of you are going to miss the boat here. Tampa's offense is ready to take the next step, and it could be a big one. Freeman, Blount, Williams, Benn, Winslow.

It's interesting to take a look at Williams' game logs. He was remarkably consistent all season and hit the ground running in week 1 with 10 targets. It's not like he had two or three monster games to pad his stats. He scored in 10 of 16 contests. Freeman loves going to him in the red zone.

If anything, the catch percentage is an anomaly on the low side. Williams was the only viable receiving threat at wideout for Tampa in 2010, and the Bucs also had very little threat of a running game for the first 7 games of the season. He came in as a rookiefighting double teams and still managed an exceptional year. With Blount providing balance and Winslow/Benn drawing defenders, Williams should face much lighter coverage this year. I'd expect something closer to 60%.

Mike Williams is the clear cut WR1 on an up and coming offense with a QB that is working his tail off every day to get better. I see Tampa actually throwing the ball more as Josh Freeman emerges as a top tier NFL QB, but Williams' targets will remain around 130 because Benn will become a threat on the other side.

130 targets, 78 receptions, 1,170 yards, 9 TDs. 171 fantasy points, top 10 WR.

 

[LawFitz]

Tampa Mike is smoothe and silky in his routes and receiving. And that was in his rookie year, where he looked more often than not looked like a polished vet.

The poor catch % is a reflection of two things IMO:

1. Freeman instantly clicked with MW and forced him a lot of targets, even when double teamed, often making them of a high degree of difficulty.

2. Freeman had the touch and accuracy to place the ball where only Mike, if anyone, could get it. A lot of times, this led to highlight reel MW catches. Most of the time however, this led to a "safe" incompletion, but a ding on Mike's catch%. I saw Freeman doing this all year very effectively. It's one reason why his TD/Int ratio was so good, but it left Mike with a crappy ratio of catches to targets.

#2 especially is why catch% in isolation as stat can be misleading. I wish the stat was instead catchable ball %. I bet MW would have been off the charts in such a stat b/c if you actually watch him, you'll see that he has VERY good hands. Very natural. Doesn't ever fight the ball.

Barring an off-field meltdown (he does have a history), I think this guy is legit and just as importantly, I think his QB and OL are also legit.

88 rec 1280 yds 10 TDs

Great value in Rd 3 of drafts this season. I doubt he lasts much longer than that.

 

[OnTheReg]

Does anyone else find a cause from concern with the fact that he only went over 100 yards once last year? Or is that strictly just being part of a young offense?

 

[We Tigers]

Does anyone else find a cause from concern with the fact that he only went over 100 yards once last year? Or is that strictly just being part of a young offense?

I think it was more that he only caught 65 passes. He did get 99, 96, and 89, so that's not a huge deal. Nicks, Calvin, and Wayne each only went for 100+ yards 4 times last year; it just doesn't happen as often as we think it does, even with the best players.

 

[fightingillini]

Mike Williams TB is in a nice situation, with a good young QB in Freeman and other talented offensive players around him. TB could really take the next step. Now all of that is factored into Williams' ADP of WR15, which is a good WR2. So the question becomes, does he have the upside to get into the upper echelon of WRs? I doubt Williams can be a top 5 WR, since I don't think he can catch enough passes, but top 10 WR is a possibility. It will all depend on the TDs. I would take him at WR15....there is enough upside for him at that ADP.

72 rec, 1100 yds, 8TD. Very good WR2.

 

[JPeso]

Anyone with projections on Benn in relation to Mike? I understand why he didn't have his own topic or even a merged topic, but did think there would be more in this thread discussing Benn.

 

[Grahamburn]

Mike Williams highlights

This guy looks so extremely polished. Look at the way he snatches the ball with his hands, run after catch ability, jump ball ability, and usage in the red zone.

Good story from the St. Petersburg Times on his goals, expectations, and how he and Freeman have become friends after "catching more than 1,000 passes from him in the offseason."

As pass routes go, his was kind of tricky.

First, he had to get off the line in a hurry. He had to juke left at those who wondered about his ability. He had to cut hard past those who questioned his character. He had to run past those who wondered if he could make such an impact so soon.

And there he was, running free and clear toward the goal line.

A few more steps, and by golly, Mike Williams could be a star.

He is young, and he is talented, and he has the power to change the scoreboard. In his first season, we learned that about Williams. He is fleet, and he is athletic, and his hands have a grip like a politician's. He was good, and he was likeable, and he was in a hurry to be better.

That much, you have seen from Williams. So far, however, you have not seen it all.

And in the route to success, that may be the best news of all.

"Last year, he was running on raw ability," said Eric Yarber, the Bucs receivers coach. "You didn't see all of his athletic ability. I'd say you saw about 70 percent. Maybe 75."

"I'd say about 60 percent," Williams said.

"He had a good year," Yarber said. "I'd give him a B."

"Maybe a C," Williams said. "Maybe a C-plus."

Perhaps you would rank his season higher. Williams was a starter in the Bucs lineup before his cab left the parking lot, and his impact was immediate. He finished the season with 65 catches and 964 yards. His 11 touchdown receptions were the most by a rookie since Randy Moss in 1998. Just as important, he dispelled the questions about his character that dropped him to the fourth round of the NFL draft. He was likeable, and he was coachable.

Despite it all, the season doesn't seem to impress Williams as much as it does the rest of us.

"I'd say it was a pretty good year," Williams said, shrugging slightly. "But my goal is to win and win and win, and we didn't get into the playoffs. I don't consider that a great year.

"I could have done more. I was a little nervous. I was scared to make a mistake, scared to make a play. I was so timid, I was trying to go out and do the right thing. Now, I'm going to go there to make the play. If I make a mistake, I make a mistake. But I'm going to do it at full speed."

Also, it appears, he will do it from different angles. The Bucs want Williams to know all of the receiver positions this year so they can move him around the field to avoid double teams. Late last year, Yarber says, opponents started to double team Williams.

"They showed me tapes of (Cardinals receiver) Larry Fitzgerald," Williams said. "When he was playing one position, they could double team him. When they started moving him around, it was harder on the defense."

Does that mean that stardom is guaranteed for Williams? Of course not. Receiver can be a funny position. In his rookie season, Michael Clayton caught 80 passes for the Bucs; the next year, he caught 32. Antonio Bryant caught 83 in his first year with the Bucs; 39 in his second. Bert Emanuel caught 41 his first season here; 22 the next.

Williams will have to learn to adjust to cornerbacks who will be more prepared for him. He will have to learn to handle disappointment, and he will have to learn to handle success. He will have to stay humble in the hardest position in the NFL to do so.

And yet, it is hard not to like his chances. He has such athleticism going for the ball, and he has Josh Freeman at quarterback, and he is hungry. Williams has a chance to be a very big deal around here.

"If he continues to take care of his body, if he continues to learn about the nuances of receiver play, he can be in the top 10, top five (receivers in the NFL)," Yarber said.

"One thing about Mike, though, is that he wants to be in the top five. … He's a perfectionist. If he lines up wrong in practice, he gets (peeved) at himself. If he drops a pass in warm-ups, he'll say, 'I can't grade 100 percent today.' "

Year 2, and the kid is wiser. He knows his position. He knows the expectations. After catching "more than 1,000" passes from Freeman in the offseason, he knows his quarterback.

"Last year, we were trying to be friends," he said. "Now, we are. And it's better to catch a ball from a friend than someone you don't know."

Last season, he learned this about the NFL: Opposing secondaries are very fast and very smart and very quick to make adjustments.

Last season, he learned this about Mike Williams: He belongs.

"I found out I could play in the NFL," Williams said. "I always knew I had a chance, but I never knew I could be a player in the NFL, that I could go out there and do the things that Andre Johnson and Randy Moss and Percy Harvin do. I belong here. I can play here.

"I'm trying to be the tip top. The best. The best ever to do this. I want to break every record I can and get to as many Super Bowls as possible. I think if I keep working, if I keep watching what other players did, I can duplicate it."

Second time around, and what should fans anticipate from Williams? How about "more"? More catches. More yardage. More impact.

When a guy is running toward stardom, what else would you expect?

Stud in the making.

 

[GunslingerEnder]

With Tampa Bay still being the 3rd best team in their division I believe the number of passing attempts will stay consistant from last season.

Williams will improve on his % of catches so I believe an increase in receptions and yards is reasonable. I don't know about repeating 11TDs again though.

72 rec 1100 yds 8 TD

 

[OnTheReg]

he is absolutely legit. watch that video on youtube of him and tell me he isn't a stud. sky's the limit.

 

[JbizzleMan]

Love the highlight reel. Drafted him late in my rookie draft last year and was VERY happy with the results. I only got to watch him play once last year so I never really got to see how good he was. I love how he's always fighting for the extra yards after first contact and makes some pretty ridiculous catches. The guy has awesome concentration! I'm starting him week 1!!!!!

 

[eakfootball]

77/1154/8