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Miles Austin is a BUY. (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Eminence
- Start date
Rolling_akg
Footballguy
Hell yeah
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
But is he a Best Buy?
The Comedian
Footballguy
TLDR
Nucker101
Footballguy
loose circuits
Footballguy
Isn't this what I said in the miles Austin thread a few spots down?
Warhogs
Footballguy
Now that is some in depth reasoning.Take it to the bank.
Phenix
Footballguy
I'm pretty sure his hammy will cause him some issues, take that to the bank.Not wishing injury on anyone, just tell me when this guys hammy has not been a problem?Now that is some in depth reasoning.Take it to the bank.
The thread provides no useful information, but I actually agree that Austin is a buy at his current price. He's dropped so far that he may be able to be had for a 2nd round pick. He's a good WR, even if he's the 3rd target on the team. Obviously a huge injury risk, but if healthy he's got plenty of talent and he'll never be double covered. I could see him having a nice bounce-back season this year.
Rolling_akg
Footballguy
Dez's 2k yards does take a chunk from the other receivers but I think miles can be solid
squistion
Footballguy
Who can remember with all the old forgotten threads you keep bumping for some unknown reason.
dickey moe
Fingerpicker
I prefer to window shop for Miles Austin at Best Buy, but I usually end up pulling the trigger at Newegg.'Raider Nation said:
Tanner9919
Footballguy
Witten is the play in Dallas...
only once in his 7-yr career has Austin caught more than 69 balls in a single season...only once has he caught more than 7 tds during any season in his 7 yr career...both happened in 2009..his rec. per gm has dropped since 2009 5.1 4.3 4.3 4.1, while yards per game has hovered at, or below 63/gm 4 of past five seasons..so. no IMO hes not a buy at all in fact hes a strong sell if not a simple avoid player...he has little or no fantasy value..typical overrated Dallas player getting a lot of love for very little production...
only once in his 7-yr career has Austin caught more than 69 balls in a single season...only once has he caught more than 7 tds during any season in his 7 yr career...both happened in 2009..his rec. per gm has dropped since 2009 5.1 4.3 4.3 4.1, while yards per game has hovered at, or below 63/gm 4 of past five seasons..so. no IMO hes not a buy at all in fact hes a strong sell if not a simple avoid player...he has little or no fantasy value..typical overrated Dallas player getting a lot of love for very little production...
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ghostguy123
Footballguy
This is a pretty horrible post. Thank you for throwing out all those numbers, but fantasy football is a little more in depth than simply using previous numbers to determine what a guy will do.Even then, this is a terrible post. Austin missed a little time last year and in PPR still scored almost 200 and was the 23rd scoring receiver. That is not "little or no fantasy value".He isn't a stud or shouldnt be viewed as a stud any more, obviously, but talking about him like he is junk is just......wrong.
Wise Old Owl
Footballguy
Agree, this guy was WR26 in 2012 even dealing with injuries all year. Dallas offense is pass happy and has more than enough to support two WR's and a TE. He's someone that I will be certainly be targeting in later rounds in redraft.
To take this a little farther, Miles Austin has only had 3.75 seasons as a starter. So referring to his first three years where he got about as much opportunity as any other UDFA WR is kind of asinine. In his 3.75 seasons as a starter, he played the first 0.75 with Romo (2009), the next 0.25 with Romo (2010) and the next 0.75 with Kitna. During those two seasons with Romo he was ridiculous. With Kitna he was meh - as was the whole team except for Witten. His 3rd season as a starter with riddled with hamstring injuries (only played 10 games, many of them limited or cut short). Last season, he came out of the gate as a top 12 WR, but hamstring injuries coupled with the emergence of Bryant led to him slipping drastically in the second half of the season.
If healthy next year, I think he's a safe bet for solid WR2 production (WR18ish) with a decent chance for the low end WR1 (WR9-12) production he displayed at the beginning of last year.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Well, he was top 25 last year and hobbled all year.
"IF" healthy, absolutely, no reason not to think he isn't a shoe-in for top 20, considering he almost finished there anyway even though he wasnt healthy.
sbonomo
Footballguy
Let's call a spade a spade. Austin is a WR3 with upside potential of a WR2. without an inury to Dez he will not sniff WR1 numbers. If you can get him in as the 20-30th WR taken off the board you will probably be very happy. If you pick him as a top 20 guy you will probably be unhappy.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
WR3 based on what? ADP? Production? Projection?
I agree with the notion that he's a buy. The guy was a top 5 dynasty WR 3 years ago. He'll never get back to that, but top 14-18 numbers wouldn't surprise me at all if he can stay healthy.
He was a WR2 last year despite missing games and playing hobbled in others. I'll gamble on his hamstring, myself.
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Texasmouth
Footballguy
He is basically a WR3 because of Witten.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
On his NFL team? I'll buy that. Dez is clearly the #1 WR target, and Witten gets enough targets to be the top option on most teams. I don't think that means what it meant 10 years ago, however, in terms of fantasy production. The collected production of those lining up at WR2 for the Cowboys will produce WR2 numbers. Austin fans just hope that he is healthy enough to get those snaps.
sbonomo
Footballguy
Sorry, i should have clarified...WR3 by fantasy standards (although with Witten he may actually be the third option). My point is if you draft him as your third guy you have a lot of upside. If you draft him as your #2 good luck. I have owned him in my dynasty league since he was a rookie...kicking myself for not selling hight but i am realistic about what his value is now.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Yeah, I'd agree with this. I think he's likely to finish as a WR2 if healthy, but woudln't want to rely on him as my 2nd option. Below average 2nd option, above average 3rd, in my opinion.
Shutout
Footballguy
I see him as a guy I would buy at the WR17-20 price right now.
Witten is always a security blanket, Dez emerged last year as we hoped he would, and the team simply must find some semblance of better balance in the running game. What they have done passing-wise the past 3-4 years is an extremely atypical trend, despite the trend of more passing in the NFL. I'm not talking about the bottom line stats, I am talking more in terms of watching games and seeing times in games where it is clear that, for one reason or another, the teams should have been or would like to have been running more but simply couldn't. It may not change a lot again this year but it should change some.
Overall, that leaves Austin as the WR3 on this team. Now that can be Laurent robinson good in a small vaccuum or that can be typical WR3 by most team's standards. I think the median of those two falls right about WR 17-20.
Witten is always a security blanket, Dez emerged last year as we hoped he would, and the team simply must find some semblance of better balance in the running game. What they have done passing-wise the past 3-4 years is an extremely atypical trend, despite the trend of more passing in the NFL. I'm not talking about the bottom line stats, I am talking more in terms of watching games and seeing times in games where it is clear that, for one reason or another, the teams should have been or would like to have been running more but simply couldn't. It may not change a lot again this year but it should change some.
Overall, that leaves Austin as the WR3 on this team. Now that can be Laurent robinson good in a small vaccuum or that can be typical WR3 by most team's standards. I think the median of those two falls right about WR 17-20.
Billy Ball Thorton
Footballguy
Austin? Pass
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Call me crazy, but if a guy scores in the top 24 in 12 team leagues that must start two receivers....most leagues can start three or up to four........then that guy is a WR-2.
Just because he isn't the 2nd best WR on YOUR team doesn't mean he isn't a fantasy WR-2.
He is trending down of course, as anyone does with age pretty much, but he has scored and likely will score in the top 24 yet again.
Now chances are if he is your 2nd best WR, you arent winning your league title. But that doesn't mean he isn't a WR-2 for fantasy purposes.
And being the 3rd option for Dallas is pretty irrelevant. He is clearly more valuable for fantasy than some teams #1 receiving options.
Just because he isn't the 2nd best WR on YOUR team doesn't mean he isn't a fantasy WR-2.
He is trending down of course, as anyone does with age pretty much, but he has scored and likely will score in the top 24 yet again.
Now chances are if he is your 2nd best WR, you arent winning your league title. But that doesn't mean he isn't a WR-2 for fantasy purposes.
And being the 3rd option for Dallas is pretty irrelevant. He is clearly more valuable for fantasy than some teams #1 receiving options.
I really don't think age has anything to do with his downward trend. I feel like 90% of it has to do with the hamstrings. 10% may be the loss of targets to Dez. He was averaging 15.5 ypr in the first half of the season last year.
I've seen people say they'd pay WR17-20 prices for him, but I don't think you'll have to pay that. They're in the 5th round of PDSL1 and guys like Blackmon and James Jones are already gone while Austin is still on the board. Hell, TY Hilton went before Austin. That's just crazy. I think he's going to be a real bargain in 2013. If they can just figure out how to keep him from pulling his hamstrings, he'll easily finish top 18.
I've seen people say they'd pay WR17-20 prices for him, but I don't think you'll have to pay that. They're in the 5th round of PDSL1 and guys like Blackmon and James Jones are already gone while Austin is still on the board. Hell, TY Hilton went before Austin. That's just crazy. I think he's going to be a real bargain in 2013. If they can just figure out how to keep him from pulling his hamstrings, he'll easily finish top 18.
Shutout
Footballguy
I think I was one of those who said they would buy at the WR17-20 and I want to clarify. I think he will be WR17-20, as I do a bit better job of explaining later in my post, but I typed it wrong to say I would pay what people perceive as WR17-20 value. I was speaking more in terms of what I think he will produce versus what I would offer to obtain him.
Overall I think he might be a tough trade piece this season because the camps are probably going to be polarized. You will find the group that thinks he can be what he was if he "just stays healthy" (likely the owners still holding him and remembering what he gave them a few years ago) and you have the camp that thinks he missed the boat and now squarely sits behind Dez and Witten, while also factoring for his rash of injury issues). It may be tough to find a common agreement on him. I think if I were trading FOR him, I would approach it as more of a filler (not throw in, just secondary) piece to a larger trade instead of approaching someone solely about him.
Ok, I gotcha. I was primarily speaking in redraft terms. He may well be available at a WR30+ price. I will be all over that. At that price, he's a really easy buy as a low risk/high reward player. Even with nagging injuries, he'll perform up to his ADP. But should he be healthy, you just got a steal.
