gianmarco
Footballguy
I know Bob Magaw had the thread on him last year. Kudos for evaluating his initial breakout game and sticking by it not being a fluke. As the year went on, I continued to be more and more impressed. I've since sat back and reevaluated his talent and potential and whether or not he's going to disappear after this year, be a decent fantasy player, or elevate himself into elite status. At this point, I'm pretty convinced it's going to be the latter.
It's amazing to me that it took 4 years to show what he could do on the field as a starter. That said, I think he's here to stay. So why #1?
Well, when you look at all the top WR's for dynasty purposes, they ALL have their "warts" at this point.
AJ -- The guy is an uberstud. There is no denying his ability and his production over the last 2 years in particular. At this point, he's viewed by many as the #1 WR and in pretty much everyone's top 3. What's the concern? Well, going to be 29 heading into this year, this may be the last year or 2 where he will get full trade value. Of course he likely has at least 3-4 years of elite production left. No doubt about it. But when I ask myself what I'd add to Miles Austin to acquire AJ, I honestly can't say I'd add anything of significance at all. Since becoming a starter this year, Austin actually outperformed AJ and Welker and every other WR. And he's 3 years younger.
Fitzgerald -- Again, an elite talent in the league. Still ridiculously young (turning 27 this year). But Boldin is now gone. Warner is retired. There are question marks surrounding him, even if minor due to his talent level. But again, when comparing him to Austin, how much would I really pay to "upgrade"? I can't say much given those concerns. Oh, and Austin is still younger than Fitz by one year.
Calvin Johnson -- Calvin has some questions to answer of his own. We know how great he was in his 2nd year. We know the hype. He still commands top trade value. But one more year of inconsistency due to either poor QB play or injury and I think the hype will finally start to fade. I think this is a very real possibility to happen. Finishing the year around WR28 is not what owners are hoping for. He's a year younger than Austin but at this young age, I think it's irrelevant.
Aside from those guys and Brandon Marshall, IMO, are there any other WR's that truly have the talent and situation to finish as WR1 for a year? I don't think there is (aside from Moss and Wayne). Guys like Jennings, Roddy, Colston, V. Jackson are all very solid WRs but I'm not sure they have WR1 potential. Marshall does, I think, but there's a good chance in a new situation that his numbers could decrease and there's always the character concerns. Sidney Rice is another very young and ultra talented WR but his QB situation is something to be concerned about.
In essence, I think Miles Austin has it all. Based on this past year, he's shown he can catch a lot of balls (80 balls in 3/4th of a year as a starter). He's shown he can dominate games and put up monster performances that can single handedly win your fantasy week. He can score double digit TDs. He doesn't drop many balls. He plays with a potent offense and a top notch QB. He's fast. He's tall. He's young.
The only question regarding Miles Austin is track record. Was 2009 a fluke? Can he continue that type of production? Will teams figure out a way to contain him? Well, at this point, I feel very comfortable answering that question. I think it's very likely that Austin is able to duplicate his success from 2009. If he does so, with AJ turning yet another year older, Fitz possibly taking a small step back, Calvin possibly taking a larger step back, and the other uncertainties that other WRs in his current tier have, then I think he ends 2010 as the consensus #1 WR to own in fantasy football.
It's amazing to me that it took 4 years to show what he could do on the field as a starter. That said, I think he's here to stay. So why #1?
Well, when you look at all the top WR's for dynasty purposes, they ALL have their "warts" at this point.
AJ -- The guy is an uberstud. There is no denying his ability and his production over the last 2 years in particular. At this point, he's viewed by many as the #1 WR and in pretty much everyone's top 3. What's the concern? Well, going to be 29 heading into this year, this may be the last year or 2 where he will get full trade value. Of course he likely has at least 3-4 years of elite production left. No doubt about it. But when I ask myself what I'd add to Miles Austin to acquire AJ, I honestly can't say I'd add anything of significance at all. Since becoming a starter this year, Austin actually outperformed AJ and Welker and every other WR. And he's 3 years younger.
Fitzgerald -- Again, an elite talent in the league. Still ridiculously young (turning 27 this year). But Boldin is now gone. Warner is retired. There are question marks surrounding him, even if minor due to his talent level. But again, when comparing him to Austin, how much would I really pay to "upgrade"? I can't say much given those concerns. Oh, and Austin is still younger than Fitz by one year.
Calvin Johnson -- Calvin has some questions to answer of his own. We know how great he was in his 2nd year. We know the hype. He still commands top trade value. But one more year of inconsistency due to either poor QB play or injury and I think the hype will finally start to fade. I think this is a very real possibility to happen. Finishing the year around WR28 is not what owners are hoping for. He's a year younger than Austin but at this young age, I think it's irrelevant.
Aside from those guys and Brandon Marshall, IMO, are there any other WR's that truly have the talent and situation to finish as WR1 for a year? I don't think there is (aside from Moss and Wayne). Guys like Jennings, Roddy, Colston, V. Jackson are all very solid WRs but I'm not sure they have WR1 potential. Marshall does, I think, but there's a good chance in a new situation that his numbers could decrease and there's always the character concerns. Sidney Rice is another very young and ultra talented WR but his QB situation is something to be concerned about.
In essence, I think Miles Austin has it all. Based on this past year, he's shown he can catch a lot of balls (80 balls in 3/4th of a year as a starter). He's shown he can dominate games and put up monster performances that can single handedly win your fantasy week. He can score double digit TDs. He doesn't drop many balls. He plays with a potent offense and a top notch QB. He's fast. He's tall. He's young.
The only question regarding Miles Austin is track record. Was 2009 a fluke? Can he continue that type of production? Will teams figure out a way to contain him? Well, at this point, I feel very comfortable answering that question. I think it's very likely that Austin is able to duplicate his success from 2009. If he does so, with AJ turning yet another year older, Fitz possibly taking a small step back, Calvin possibly taking a larger step back, and the other uncertainties that other WRs in his current tier have, then I think he ends 2010 as the consensus #1 WR to own in fantasy football.
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but I think we'll see DJax as the 2nd WR taken off his own team. Or at least Maclin and DJax will be drafted close to each other.
I dont know if id say gave up the farm but it was a pretty steep price considering Nicks trade value, but i think id still prefer Gians side in that deal.I like Austin a lot. Think hes got a real good chance to cement himself as a top 5 dynasty WR this year. I think most just want to see him do it 2 years in a row before paying top 5 value
I dont know if id say gave up the farm but it was a pretty steep price considering Nicks trade value, but i think id still prefer Gians side in that deal.I like Austin a lot. Think hes got a real good chance to cement himself as a top 5 dynasty WR this year. I think most just want to see him do it 2 years in a row before paying top 5 value
I dont know if id say gave up the farm but it was a pretty steep price considering Nicks trade value, but i think id still prefer Gians side in that deal.I like Austin a lot. Think hes got a real good chance to cement himself as a top 5 dynasty WR this year. I think most just want to see him do it 2 years in a row before paying top 5 value
@ telegraph.
in the other breakout thread, i stated a few times i think, if he sustained his incendiary pace of 2009, he would cement his status as a top 3-5 AFTER this season...ironically (as a big advocate), i may have been pessimistic? it is looking increasingly like he has ARRIVED, in terms of his valuation... some good points were made in this thread already... if you think he will be top 5 (3 - 1?), but can get him for less, he could still represent upside even at that lofty valuation (top 10)...BTW, i can't take credit for "discovering" austin (tried to give proper credit & attribution where it was due in the other thread)... i was perhaps primed to recognize his breakout, from acquiring him in preseason in multiple leagues. even there, i was anticipating him starting sooner, so was a bit off on the timing. i didn't predict a massive breakout before it happened, but i can't fault myself too much for that, as i don't think the scale and magnitude of his ascendance could possibly have been predicted by anybody (compare his ADP from this time last year)...while the KC breakout game recognition was hindsight, it seemed worthwhile, for forward looking purposes, to suss out how legit his breakout was... and not to dismiss it PURELY on the admittedly historical/statistical unliklihood of sustaining the torrid pace of his first few starts... but also to incorporate scouting-type info in any thorough and balanced appraisal.imo an important distinction to make in the context of THIS thread, is what we personally think austin is worth, and if there is a valuation difference between that and the consensus that can be exploited...i'll return to that shortly...i'm not at all surprised to hear austin is going in the 1st round of startup dynasty leagues... most of us play in 12-14-16 team leagues, and it only takes one owner enamored with his compelling upside to push him into that neighborhood... my guess is, many leagues will have a few owners that fit that description...back to the potential difference between the ranking of those who are comfortable with the top 3-5 projection, and his consensus ranking, which is probably a bit lower (though i may have been off in thinking another similar full season might be needed before this recognition became more widespread). imo, in most leagues, fitz, calvin & andre will very likely go first in most drafts (in whatever order)... after that, austin may well be in the conversation for WR4-5... fitz and calvin are probably the only WRs *I* would rather have than austin... & i'm not sure about calvin (reminds me of a saying - everybody is crazy but me and you... & i'm starting to wonder about you! 
)... if not for leainart, fitz would (or should, imo) be the slam dunk, default #1 in dynasty startup...the scouting lens has to be followed wherever it leads... for the same reason i trusted my sense & instincts on austin, they similarly tell me that calvin is a superior athlete & physical specimen, and possible the finest ever at the WR position (of course not the same as saying he will fully unleash and actualize this prodigious raw potential... but it is there for all to see)... a few things that need to happen soon, or gianmarco will look prescient in stating that another drastically below expectations finish in 2010 could cause his stock to dip (if not necessarily tumble all the way out of the top 5-10 - his massive pedigree confers on him an immense amount of good will and makes him deserving of an unusual level of patience, in my book - given the maximal payoff that could be in store)... he needs to stay healthy, stafford needs to continue developing into being as good a QB as he was advertised to be... & they need to surround him with better weapons (burleson?)... all that said, as high as i am on johnson, it won't surprise me if austin outperforms him... even since the time he broke out in the KC game, mounting evidence continued to pour in that roy williams possesses virtually zero threat to austin as the primary WR target... romo is in his prime, and the passing game can keep witten and austin sated...austin was a player that, as high as i was on him in the first place, grew on me. it is dangerous to become so enthralled with a player that you stop looking for weaknesses. but the more i tried to break him down and vet his deficiencies & possible situational question marks, the better he looked. i see things very similarly to gianmarco (if not identically)... i applaud what is a gutsy call, and can't wait to see how it plays out this season (i think only injury can prevent him from AROUND a top 5-3 finish, and he could have #1 upside)... risky, but i respect a calculated one... the case made was imo well conceived.* what isn't to like about austin (there is the lack of a previously proven track record - some want to see it for more than part of ONE season - the flipside of recklessness is overconservatism - if he continues to blow up, meanwhile, he isn't getting any cheaper), and what do other elite, tier one WRs do better?he is like a RB that does everything... with not only speed, strength & moves, but also the ability to score multiple ways... in close, but also by breaking tackles and scoring from distance... also a great convergence/intersection with talent and OPPORTUNITY, where it is unclear how many elite WRs are clearly better off in that department.** some openly questioned last year whether it was laughable to consider austin an elite WR so early. by putting his outburst under a microscope, i was prepared for whatever eventuality... it would have looked foolish if he was a flash in the pan... but i had to stand by what i saw, and accept the consequences, wherever they led...i don't think it is ridiculous to broach questions like these... there is a risk of a strong stance being premature and unfounded at times... but people are asking questions like these, so it is critical to address them... the answer doesn't always have to be in the affirmative, but it is right to ask the question and explore where it leads. the only ridiculous response to a breakout would be to ignore it, and not try to dig more deeply to better determine its legitimacy and authenticity.
