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** Minnesota 10-2 at Detroit 5-7 ** (-2, 51.5) (2 Viewers)

Ministry of Pain

Footballguy
If we have to fire up a fresh one on Sunday because this falls all the way to the top of page 2, so be it.

-The Lions are the favorites with half the number of wins the Vikings have right now at 10?
It's hard to fathom where they come up with this and yet I would have jumped all over the Lions getting 3-4 let's say, which seems reasonable.
The lines opened with Minnesota as a -2.5 point road favorite and now they are a road dog sporting a 10-2 record
Soooo hard to pass on that kind of juice but something fishy is up.
Vikings got blown out 40-3 vs Dallas and were largely manhandled by Philly very early in the season.
Other than that, they largely have been rock solid vs inferior opponents.
Imagine if Detroit had knocked off Buffalo on Turkey Day, they'd be gunning for a winning record in December with 3 more games left.
-Chance for a lot of players to be involved in this game, one of the higher projected point totals on the board.

Go!
 
According to the athletic football show, This is the first time ever this late in the season that a team with an .800 winning percentage has been an underdog to a team with a losing record (except for 4 times that teams in the last week of the season had byes clinched and rested starters).
 
Vikings are 9-0 in one score games

Lions are 2-5 in one score games

*************

Dan Campbell is 3-0 v teams 5+ games over .500

The previous four Lions HC (Swartz, Caldwell, Pencil, Bevell) were a combined 0-22
 
How bad was Detroit’s defense after Week 8?

(when they were 1-6, they fired the DBs coach, traded Hockenson, & the owner publicly backed MCDC - all in the same week)

Measured by EPA per drive, simply the the worst defense in decades and one of the worst in history.

TruMedia’s database goes back to 2000, so we’re looking at a span of 23 league seasons and 734 single-season team performances. Among that sample, this year’s Lions defense ranks 734th in EPA per drive! Dead last!
[By the way, the 2008 Lions defense ranks 733rd, and the 2020 Lions rank 732nd.]


****************

Here is the stats from opposing quarterbacks over the past five weeks:

105-of-183 (57.4%), 1,223 yards (6.7 Y/A), 7 TDs, 7 INTs, 74.9 passer rating

Here’s where those stats rank in the NFL from Weeks 9 to Week 13:

  • 57.4% completions — 1st
  • 74.9 passer rating — 2nd
  • 7 INTs - 1st
They’ve also tallied exactly half (11) of their season total sacks (22) in just these five games.

Put it all together, and according to Football Outsiders, the Lions' pass defense has been the third-best in the NFL since Week 9. Yes, you read that right: the Lions have the third-best pass defense in the NFL over the past five games.

QBs faced in the last 5: Aaron Rodgers, Justin Fields, Daniel Jones, Josh Allen, and Trevor Lawrence.
 
I would rather have the Lions as underdogs here. The Vikings have to be feeling their 10-2 record is being completely dismissed, so they will come in with a major chip on their shoulder. That said, the Lions have been a damn good team the last month and a half. Better than the Vikings. But in the NFL, scripts can flip from one week to the next. As soon as a team gets over confident, they leg an egg. It will be telling if the Lions can maintain their level of play.
 
I can certainly see scenarios where the Lions win this game, but I'm shocked that they are favored.
 
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Minnesota getting zero respect here. They just beat a pretty good Jets team and looked good running the football against them in the first half, something teams haven't been able to do against the Jets.

Minnesota's D is suspect, but enough to make them underdogs to this Detroit team? I don't know. I do know if you asked me with money in the game, I'd say it's about Pick 'em, maybe Minnesota giving a point or two. On offense, Cousins, Cook, Thielen, Jefferson, and Hockenson are a formidable group. Wonder how the Lions feel about trading Hock now that they're sort of back in it.
 
Minnesota getting zero respect here. They just beat a pretty good Jets team and looked good running the football against them in the first half, something teams haven't been able to do against the Jets.

Minnesota's D is suspect, but enough to make them underdogs to this Detroit team? I don't know. I do know if you asked me with money in the game, I'd say it's about Pick 'em, maybe Minnesota giving a point or two. On offense, Cousins, Cook, Thielen, Jefferson, and Hockenson are a formidable group. Wonder how the Lions feel about trading Hock now that they're sort of back in it.
Ah, but there's the rub...What or which Cousins will show up this week? Minny fans better hope it's the one who at the very least hits open recivers no matter who they are. I know the record I see the standings but...
 
Minnesota getting zero respect here. They just beat a pretty good Jets team and looked good running the football against them in the first half, something teams haven't been able to do against the Jets.

Minnesota's D is suspect, but enough to make them underdogs to this Detroit team? I don't know. I do know if you asked me with money in the game, I'd say it's about Pick 'em, maybe Minnesota giving a point or two. On offense, Cousins, Cook, Thielen, Jefferson, and Hockenson are a formidable group. Wonder how the Lions feel about trading Hock now that they're sort of back in it.

The Lions were happy to get rid of Hock. He really did not care to be there, was not going to resign and the Lions had zero interest in paying him $15 million a year. Hock has shown flashes, but was never a huge difference maker.
 
The Lions were happy to get rid of Hock. He really did not care to be there, was not going to resign and the Lions had zero interest in paying him $15 million a year. Hock has shown flashes, but was never a huge difference maker.

I get they were happy to make the deal given all those future issues, but I'm talking about the here and now of pro football, Week 14, 2022 season and 2022 season alone. You'd have to think they'd rather have Hock than Brock Wright and James Mitchell.
 
I would never touch this game in a million years as a Lion's homer, but my spidey senses are screaming take the Lions and the over.
 
I'm surprised The Lions are favored but would not be surprised if they won and covered. Certainly looks like a high scoring game. Indoors,both offenses can score points,neither defense is lock down or even very good. Both coaching staffs seem to have a good feel for what their teams can or can't do. This could be the most exciting game of the day. It's 1:00 PM regional game for worries about Cousins and his "prime time" misadventures. Goff says he's playing the best football of his career,two loaded offenses,I'm going over on this one for sure. Let's say...

Detroit- 41
Minnesota- 38
 
The Lions were happy to get rid of Hock. He really did not care to be there, was not going to resign and the Lions had zero interest in paying him $15 million a year. Hock has shown flashes, but was never a huge difference maker.

I get they were happy to make the deal given all those future issues, but I'm talking about the here and now of pro football, Week 14, 2022 season and 2022 season alone. You'd have to think they'd rather have Hock than Brock Wright and James Mitchell.

The folks who were around him every day for two years decided the team was better off without him. He's a talented guy. Trading him made about as much sense as...IDK, firing a highly respected positional coach...when every aspect of your defense is failing? Do these sound like winning moves?

4-1 since they made those moves. Not sure I want to argue causation on the former, but the latter is a strong correlation to the way the pass D is playing.

They went out and beat Green Bay. NBD, right? Packers aren't a good team this year. It was to Detroit, though, bc they have owned us for 30 years. They won in Chicago. Less of a feat, there was a stretch in the Stafford era where we swept them three years in a row. Still, don't want to discount the first road win in two years. Winning in New Jersey for back to back was impressive, they dominated the LOS on both sides of the ball. Saquon was held 14-26 with a long run of 4 yards. Go ahead and slander the Giants all you want, but the Lions walked in 3-6 and their opponent was 7-2. Thanksgiving was a disappointment. No need to sugar coat it or make excuses. There are no moral victories, and qualifying it by saying it was a good effort against a SB contender is b.s. - that was a winnable game. Forward. They responded with their most complete victory of the season.

2nd youngest team in the NFL, by far the youngest on defense in terms of man games and snap counts. a 3 game streak and 4 out of 5 is nice but TBH the hype is a bit much. An equally futile franchise (next week's opponent) won four straight and five of six a few weeks earlier. Didn't see everyone losing their minds over that minirun.

You want respect in the NFL? You have to earn it. The fawning over Detroit frankly feels a bit patronizing. Aw that's so cute - the Lions have a HC who is a walking motivation meme and we got to know them a bit over the summer watching Hard Knocks. While I appreciate some of it is sincere and well intentioned, I don't necessarily want the Lions to be a thing. I don't want popularity for them; the world will always have the Steelers and Cowboys for the casuals. I want people to hate Detroit, because I want them to physically beat the hell out of whoever has to face them.

They have, for the first time in my 56 years of fandom, a distinct identity. They play very physical on both sides of the ball. That alone is different. There is a lot of positivity in Allen Park - and it cannot be overstated how toxic the culture was when Quinntricia were given their walking papers. Nice, but it has to translate, and the staff (not just Dan Campbell) is doing a great job of preparing them each week. They come out with purpose and weekly get off to a good start, over and over again. It's awesome to see hard work pay off. They are playing with a lot of confidence rn. They are learning how to win and proving to themselves what they are capable of accomplishing.

Meaningful football in December hasn't happened in Detroit in five years. They have zero margin for error. If you play around with the playoff machine, there are no reasonable scenarios whereby an 9-8 NFC team can make it in (unless they play in the NFC South.) Extremely long odds, it is hard to win six straight games at the highest level.

But if they win tomorrow I like their chances. A lot.
 
I want people to hate Detroit, because I want them to physically beat the hell out of whoever has to face them.
I think Dan Campbell wants this too. Impose their will on opponents and basically say we are doing it and you can't do **** about it.
 
I want people to hate Detroit, because I want them to physically beat the hell out of whoever has to face them.
I think Dan Campbell wants this too. Impose their will on opponents and basically say we are doing it and you can't do **** about it.

1st & goal from the 5 or closer 21 times

21 touchdowns

8 of Jamaal’s 14 TDs have been 1 yard

Most efficient red zone offense in the NFL

They were 31st a year ago. Essentially the same personnel except for the revolving cast that has played RG.
 
Minnesota is 4-1 against playing 5 of the top 10 defenses in the league (WAS, BUF, DAL, NE, NYJ). They’ve averaged 24 pts/game (and that includes the 3 pt debacle vs Dal).

I swear to god every single National talking head screams WHAT ABOUT THE DALLAS GAME!!!!! COUSINS ISNT CLUTCH.

Never mind beating multiple playoff teams in a row. Or the fact that they’ve had the toughest schedule of all the NFC contenders.

They’re a flawed team. Offense disappears for basically every 3rd quarter. Defense is bend but don’t break (esp in the 4th quarter).

But guess what - they win. Cousins has more 4th Q comebacks than any QB this year. He is statistically I think the top 10 QB in the 4th Q. This team is average until the end - then they are elite. Weirdest season I’ve ever witnessed.
 
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Detroit 27
Minnesota 24

Vegas is trying to tell us something, looks like I might take 2 home favorites today with 5-7 records
It's a Trap!
 
The folks who were around him every day for two years decided the team was better off

with a second round pick as compensation for a free agent they know is walking during a lost season.

My question again -- Week 14, 2022, you know you're in the running for the playoffs and not 1-6. C'mon, you can do a hypothetical. Dollars to donuts they don't want Hock over Brock Wright. To suggest otherwise is almost silliness.

Good luck today. I might be firing up the Charknado.
 
Technically if the Lions win, it's not an upset, right?
If the Lions beat the Vikings, the narrative is going to be ‘see, we told you the Vikings weren’t very good’.

If the Vikings beat the lions, the narrative will be will ‘of course they did. It’s the lions.’

I swear to God this team doesn’t get either side of the narrative this year.
Just win baby!!!!
 

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