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MLB 2018 (2 Viewers)

Oh, forgot to post above.  Some SPs I wrote down to target after looking at the savant site today:

Highest  # of barrels on the year for the slate:   Kennedy, Odorizzi, Shields, Mengden, Leake, Romano, Stratton

SPs with 40%+ of hits going for 95mph+:  Leake, Colon, J.Garcia, Odorizzi, Stratton 

 
Also, I like to remind myself, so I will post here as well.  I like to look at their expected stats list on that site to see who might be in for some positive regression soon in terms of what their wOBA on the year is vs. their expected wOBA:  here are some I wrote down at the top of the list (in order of biggest difference):

Morales, Kipnis, Y.Molina, Carpenter, Duvall, Bruce, V.Mart, Panik, Mancini, S.Perez, N.Williams, Gallo, Harper, Alonso, Rendon, Votto, Ozuna

Might be some guys on here in decent spots and/or cheap because of their performance on the year so far.  

ETA:  Biggest names I saw as far as maybe cooling off (their wOBA is higher than expected) were:  Scooter G, Rosario, Villar, Candelario, Gardner, Segura, Joc, Herrera. 

Teams as a whole with the biggest differences in wOBA vs. xwOBA (again, in order..) =  KC, Toronto, Oak, Clev, StL, Mets, Wash, Seattle, Bost, Det. 

 
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For those playing on FD, I have seen J.Barria's name mentioned a bit as being too cheap over there at just 6.8K.  Looks like 3 of his last 4 starts have been 40pts+ too.   He's 9.2K on DK, so that's probably not the place to play him.  

 
Rather than trying to say who I like tonight with such a big slate on FD,  just gonna run out some LU's I like and see what anyone may have to offer. First one is a RG app LU [that's been back on a hot streak the last several days], $.25 entry, and the next one is one I'm throwing together:

#1 SP/ Nola, C-1B/M. Cabrera, 2B/ Dozier, 3B/ Rendon, SS/ Correa, OF/ Pham - Hoskins - Castellanos, UTL/ Dominic Smith [fresh call-up by the Mets - not sure I like it against Folty, but, for $.25, I'll let RG try it for me].

#2 SP/ Foltynewicz, C-1B/ Grandal, 2B/ Villar, 3B/ Shaw, SS/ Correa, OF/ L. Martin - Joc Pederson - M. Kemp, UTL/ J. Baez

 
KarmaPolice said:
Oh, forgot to post above.  Some SPs I wrote down to target after looking at the savant site today:

Highest  # of barrels on the year for the slate:   Kennedy, Odorizzi, Shields, Mengden, Leake, Romano, Stratton

SPs with 40%+ of hits going for 95mph+:  Leake, Colon, J.Garcia, Odorizzi, Stratton 
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Hmm, I have Odorizzi in 2/5 lineups but will stick with him for low ownership.

 
reel_smooth said:
Rather than trying to say who I like tonight with such a big slate on FD,  just gonna run out some LU's I like and see what anyone may have to offer. First one is a RG app LU [that's been back on a hot streak the last several days], $.25 entry, and the next one is one I'm throwing together:

#1 SP/ Nola, C-1B/M. Cabrera, 2B/ Dozier, 3B/ Rendon, SS/ Correa, OF/ Pham - Hoskins - Castellanos, UTL/ Dominic Smith [fresh call-up by the Mets - not sure I like it against Folty, but, for $.25, I'll let RG try it for me].

#2 SP/ Foltynewicz, C-1B/ Grandal, 2B/ Villar, 3B/ Shaw, SS/ Correa, OF/ L. Martin - Joc Pederson - M. Kemp, UTL/ J. Baez
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WTF- just saw Correa's salary on FD.  He's been cold lately, but damn..  

This is the battle that I have with these RG optimized LUs - it seems so much based on pt/$.  I agree there are a lot of values in what it spit out, but on the flip side - there are a lot of ice cold bats in that LU too.  Cabrera, Correa, Pham, Hoskins?  Do they have more than 2 double digit games combined between them in the last 20 games or so?   Just seems weird that is what would come up in an optimized LU.  Just checked and Castellanos is cold lately too.  

They get paid for this and are a lot smarter than I am, just saying that is my battle when I see what they spit out sometimes for LUs.  

 
reel_smooth said:
Rather than trying to say who I like tonight with such a big slate on FD,  just gonna run out some LU's I like and see what anyone may have to offer. First one is a RG app LU [that's been back on a hot streak the last several days], $.25 entry, and the next one is one I'm throwing together:

#1 SP/ Nola, C-1B/M. Cabrera, 2B/ Dozier, 3B/ Rendon, SS/ Correa, OF/ Pham - Hoskins - Castellanos, UTL/ Dominic Smith [fresh call-up by the Mets - not sure I like it against Folty, but, for $.25, I'll let RG try it for me].

#2 SP/ Foltynewicz, C-1B/ Grandal, 2B/ Villar, 3B/ Shaw, SS/ Correa, OF/ L. Martin - Joc Pederson - M. Kemp, UTL/ J. Baez
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I like the 2nd much better. I'm not paying Scherzer/Verlander money for him against Col. Even though they aren't in Coors I wouldn't call it an easy or good matchup.

 
Raging weasel said:
I like the 2nd much better. I'm not paying Scherzer/Verlander money for him against Col. Even though they aren't in Coors I wouldn't call it an easy or good matchup.
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Nola is bit more reasonably priced on FD, but it's still a valid point.  Philly ballpark is still one of the best for runs/Hrs too.  

 
KarmaPolice said:
This is the battle that I have with these RG optimized LUs - it seems so much based on pt/$.  I agree there are a lot of values in what it spit out, but on the flip side - there are a lot of ice cold bats in that LU too.  Cabrera, Correa, Pham, Hoskins?  Do they have more than 2 double digit games combined between them in the last 20 games or so?   Just seems weird that is what would come up in an optimized LU.  Just checked and Castellanos is cold lately too.  

They get paid for this and are a lot smarter than I am, just saying that is my battle when I see what they spit out sometimes for LUs.  
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And that's why I'm only trotting this out in one $.25 LU.  :D

 
I am using Barria in my lineup.  RW has him as about the worst pitcher going tonight which I don't quite understand.   RW is predicting his worst outing of the season.  Maybe I should put in another lineup with SEA hitters.

I think the RW predictions are worth looking at and I am sure they take into account many factors that I do not have access to, but more times than not there is a mass of hitters between 11-14 points predicted.  With the variance of baseball, not sure if a prediction of 11 vs 14 really is relevant.   In my opinion, the real value of the pay sites is the ability to generate a large number of lineups so you can overcome the variance.

Another way to look at it is this: not once this year has RW predicted a player to hit a HR.  I have seen predicted points of 16-17, but never have a seen a player predicted to have 18.7 points.  

Good luck everyone!

 
needanap said:
I am using Barria in my lineup.  RW has him as about the worst pitcher going tonight which I don't quite understand.   RW is predicting his worst outing of the season.  Maybe I should put in another lineup with SEA hitters.

I think the RW predictions are worth looking at and I am sure they take into account many factors that I do not have access to, but more times than not there is a mass of hitters between 11-14 points predicted.  With the variance of baseball, not sure if a prediction of 11 vs 14 really is relevant.   In my opinion, the real value of the pay sites is the ability to generate a large number of lineups so you can overcome the variance.

Another way to look at it is this: not once this year has RW predicted a player to hit a HR.  I have seen predicted points of 16-17, but never have a seen a player predicted to have 18.7 points.  

Good luck everyone!
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RG has him rated right in the middle.  I didn't see much that would get me off him (well, besides Seattle homerism) - decent swK%, woba, etc.    I just looked at their updated stuff, and they have him as being 1% owned, and drawing an Extreme Pitcher rated umpire as well.  

Can't be much worse than the SPs I rostered in the Tort/TB game last night.  

For FD, they have Nola, Gray, and McCullers projected as the top owned guys at 28%, 20%, and 10%.  

 
They are usually fairly good and in the ballpark, but I was surprised at their projections for top owned teams.  It's fairly spread out, but they have as the popular ones:

Bost, Cubs, Cleveland, Milwaukee, NY, Houst  all over 5%

I thought Cinc/KC would be more owned, but they have KC as being less popular than Balt and SF.   I am guessing a bit has to do with roster construction predictions too - ie maybe KC is a bit too pricey to fit with Nola and/or Bost/Clev, but Balt and SF are cheap enough to do it?

Of the ideas I posted above, Det, Toronto, TB, LAA have the lowest projected %.  

 
My lineups for tonight

DK .25ers

Mikolas Odorizzi Molina Goldy Descalso Lamb Munoz Peralta Jay Ozuna

McCullers Bucholtz Barnhart Votto Gennett Suarez Nunez Martinez Bradley Chisenhall

McCullers Gray Contreras Alonso Baez Bryant Holt Zobrist Cain Winker

Barria Gray Garver Pujols Dozier Moose Escobar Trout Merrifield Kepler 

Odorizzi Roark Posey Moreland Holt Ramirez Lindor Brantley Kemp McCutchen

Also a 3man pickem

Cashed in some FD points to play in a $1 SE gpp there.

Barria Freeman Villar Rendon Correa Benitendi Young McCutchen Albies

Good luck all!!

 
Miggy just tore his bicep on a swing, my early SPs are getting knocked around and my guys aren't hitting. Heading towards my 1st bad day in a while.

 
One of those nights where I thought I would do OK, and then the night games when off, so I will be down on the night.  Clev let me down big time again, but to be fair, I wasn't on many good ideas.  

Regroup and try again tomorrow...

 
Raging weasel said:
For such a big slate the SP options are pretty slim. Only 5 guys I'm considering-- Folty, McCullers, Mikolas, Erod and Gray. I like Gray the best when factoring in price and opponent.
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$5 in nothing out. Once again I didn't stick to my own advice. Folty, Gray and McCullers all had 20+ pts but I ended up mixing in too many duds. Also was wrong about Nola who was the top SP. I did manage to play a few players that put up 20+ but too much Cle,Cubs and others with 4 or less.

 
reel_smooth said:
#1 SP/ Nola, C-1B/M. Cabrera, 2B/ Dozier, 3B/ Rendon, SS/ Correa, OF/ Pham - Hoskins - Castellanos, UTL/ Dominic Smith [fresh call-up by the Mets - not sure I like it against Folty, but, for $.25, I'll let RG try it for me].

#2 SP/ Foltynewicz, C-1B/ Grandal, 2B/ Villar, 3B/ Shaw, SS/ Correa, OF/ L. Martin - Joc Pederson - M. Kemp, UTL/ J. Baez
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Well, RG app line-up [#1] was a bust at 109.3 points. My LU [#2], with one slight correction [last-minute, shied away from Baez at UTL and pivoted to E. Escobar instead]: 168.4 points and good enough for a $7 cash in a $2 single-entry. 

I'll continue to use the RG app as a reference, but, I clearly won't be using it as a do-all, end-all solution either. On-ward and upward to today! 

 
Early slate today has alot of good hitting options but only a few SPs I like. Sale is 13.5k and has little chance to hit 3x value but I think you have to use him. Happ and Greinke are the only others I have interest in so going Greinke for the savings and he's been great at home.

That doesn't leave much for the expensive Bos bats I want going against the Balt bullpen,Ariz lefties I love or Trout who has been on fire. I started with Trout, Holt and Cozart and pieced in guys from there but waiting on lineup release to see if it holds up.

I looked at the all day slate as I really want an Ariz stack today but the contest choices for $2 or less are garbage so just doing a 3man there. Going with Boyd/Pivetta, who I think are great cheap options, and then Ariz/Yank stacks.

 
Oh, and for the main slate I'm definitely fading Cle bats as they have screwed me for 3 days in great matchups. Hell, I may even start Covey against them.

 
Raging weasel said:
Early slate today has alot of good hitting options but only a few SPs I like. Sale is 13.5k and has little chance to hit 3x value but I think you have to use him. Happ and Greinke are the only others I have interest in so going Greinke for the savings and he's been great at home.

That doesn't leave much for the expensive Bos bats I want going against the Balt bullpen,Ariz lefties I love or Trout who has been on fire. I started with Trout, Holt and Cozart and pieced in guys from there but waiting on lineup release to see if it holds up.

I looked at the all day slate as I really want an Ariz stack today but the contest choices for $2 or less are garbage so just doing a 3man there. Going with Boyd/Pivetta, who I think are great cheap options, and then Ariz/Yank stacks.
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I haven't started digging yet, but why the love for Az today?  I assume Taillon is bad vs. LHBs?

 
KarmaPolice said:
I just can't seem to fit them in with Sale though.  Is the decision today Sale or bats?
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Pretty much I think. You could go Happ/Greinke and have another 2k to spend but I personally wouldn't touch any of the other SPs. I'm thinking Sale + fading Bos bats will be kind of contrarian.

 
Raging weasel said:
Pretty much I think. You could go Happ/Greinke and have another 2k to spend but I personally wouldn't touch any of the other SPs. I'm thinking Sale + fading Bos bats will be kind of contrarian.
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Richards put up 30 last time he was in Seattle, so I did take a peek at him.   Right now I have Sale/Richards + Toronto stack and had room for Devers in there at least.  I remember from when Seattle played them last week that this Font kid gives a ton of hard contact to both sides.  Podcast didn't mention who was on deck to come in afterwards.  

Today might be a good day to use the optimizer - put in 3-4 Bost bats or an Az stack and see what it spits out for a LU after that.  

 
Raging weasel said:
I may be forced to drop from Sale, some of my cheap bats have already been scratched and don't want to get caught with no one to play.
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S.Rod is somebody that I have as a good m/u vs Greinke and cheap, but right now I have my Toronto stack in the $1 SE:

Sale/Richards - Martin/Smoak/Arroyo/Devers/R.Rod/T.Hern/Granderson/Grichuk.  

The TB bats of Duffy/Arroyo/Adames keep showing up on the cheap in LUs I play with on the optimizer too if you want to try to stick with Sale.  I am going to think about that Richards/Greinke combo and see if I can get Trout or Bost OF in there as well.  

 
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Rolling with these at least until Angels lineup is posted

Sale Greinke Sucre Aguilar Perez LaStella Urshela Trout Jay Young

Happ Richards Martin Smoak Nunez Solarte Holt Benitendi Cain Jay

 
And again in my Sale gpp the current leader is double stacking himself. He's only using SPs and bats from Toronto/Tampa :confused: I could see doing this with just a Tor stack and hoping Tor does all their damage after the 3rd inning but stacking both sides makes no sense.

 
Ok, so, looking over the 7:00 main slate for FD, and, it would seem that Cleveland & the NYY bats have the most upside, but, obviously, will also be the most expensive. St Louis looks as if they have a favorable match-up as well, implied run total of 4.93, and some cheaper bats that could help make room for a few guys from either CL or the Yankees. Going try and squeeze as much of these guys in as I can w/ Bauer for the SP, although, I may also trot out Berrios in one LU as well. 

 
reel_smooth said:
Ok, so, looking over the 7:00 main slate for FD, and, it would seem that Cleveland & the NYY bats have the most upside, but, obviously, will also be the most expensive. St Louis looks as if they have a favorable match-up as well, implied run total of 4.93, and some cheaper bats that could help make room for a few guys from either CL or the Yankees. Going try and squeeze as much of these guys in as I can w/ Bauer for the SP, although, I may also trot out Berrios in one LU as well. 
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I like it.  

My weird gpp idea on the night is Tex against Maeda.  He was giving up stats to LHBs before the injury, and figured it's worth a shot if he is not 100%.  Also the Dodger pen got worked over a little last night as well. 

 
KarmaPolice said:
I like it.  

My weird gpp idea on the night is Tex against Maeda.  He was giving up stats to LHBs before the injury, and figured it's worth a shot if he is not 100%.  Also the Dodger pen got worked over a little last night as well. 
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That was actually another scenario I was looking at and may incorporate it into another LU or two.

 
Greinke getting clobbered early, looks like my boy Chacin was the guy to pair with Sale. Between Greinke and the dud blue Jays that lineup is toast but the other 2 have a good chance to cash.

For the main slate I have this in a $1 gpp

Bauer Pivetta Casali Martinez Gyorko Suarez Gregorius Ozuna Anderson Grossman

 
The three early games so far: in a final, ATL 2 - NYM 0 ....... TAM 1 - TOR 0, also a final .......  MILW 1 - CHC - 0 in the 8th. I did two single-entry GPP's, neither current winner is over 133 points.  :loco:

 
reel_smooth said:
The three early games so far: in a final, ATL 2 - NYM 0 ....... TAM 1 - TOR 0, also a final .......  MILW 1 - CHC - 0 in the 8th. I did two single-entry GPP's, neither current winner is over 133 points.  :loco:
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Yeah, so far it's one of those weird days where there were only 2HRs, and you obviously had to have those players.  

Very early was a bust.  Early LUs are holding on to even, and could do something if my Seattle guys get a few more runs since they are low owned.  

 
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Raging weasel said:
Greinke getting clobbered early, looks like my boy Chacin was the guy to pair with Sale. Between Greinke and the dud blue Jays that lineup is toast but the other 2 have a good chance to cash.

For the main slate I have this in a $1 gpp

Bauer Pivetta Casali Martinez Gyorko Suarez Gregorius Ozuna Anderson Grossman
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I might look into a pick 'em, but I think I am going to focus on FD a tad for the next few days.  It's weird how from the same pool of players I can't hit anything on DK, but at least seem to be keeping almost even on FD.  

 
KarmaPolice said:
I might look into a pick 'em, but I think I am going to focus on FD a tad for the next few days.  It's weird how from the same pool of players I can't hit anything on DK, but at least seem to be keeping almost even on FD.  
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Only needing 1 SP makes a huge difference. Add in not needing to play a C and you get a flex so you don't have to choose between 2 guys you really like at the same position and it's easier to build lineups.

 
A 2 run double by Jay and HR by Young( combined 11% owned) vaults me from 8 pts below cashline to 66th place. Now just need these games to end :popcorn:

 
Raging weasel said:
A 2 run double by Jay and HR by Young( combined 11% owned) vaults me from 8 pts below cashline to 66th place. Now just need these games to end :popcorn:
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:thumbup:

The Healy HR put me up for the early slate.  All 3 in the 3 max are cashing despite one being a lineup with Richards as SP.  Have Young in 2, Healy in 2.  

I will take extra innings if those 2 keep scoring.. 

 
Busy today so did not have anytime for lineups.  There was a $2 late night small GPP (297 people)  so I did that quick.  LA/TEX and HOU/OAK. Right now sitting in 2nd place.  Need Fowler, Choo, Reddick, or Altuve to do something good and Hammels to keep chugging along.  I guess I do better with few choices.

 
needanap said:
Busy today so did not have anytime for lineups.  There was a $2 late night small GPP (297 people)  so I did that quick.  LA/TEX and HOU/OAK. Right now sitting in 2nd place.  Need Fowler, Choo, Reddick, or Altuve to do something good and Hammels to keep chugging along.  I guess I do better with few choices.
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Nice!!  Good luck...

 
A couple hours ago I was going to come in and post that I was looking at my LUs after they started and realized that I had 0% of the Houst offense.    woops.  

I had about 40% of my LUs with T.Anderson, which was great, but the bats I paid up for stunk it up.   I went right back to going a little heavy on going back to the well on Os like Cincy/KC/Clev that stunk it up 2 nights in a row now.   The couple that did cash were my Rockies + T.Anderson LUs.  

Overall, I think it was about a break even day.  I did a $2 pick 'em that I won tonight, so that about broke me even on DK.  I was down about $5 on FD tonight, but up $6 on the early slates.    Try again tomorrow...

 
Oh man, tomorrow is rough.   But of course I will still try something.  Put in holders for the $1 SE on each slate, but won't do much else.  

Just because, I looked ahead to Friday - we get my boy Paxton vs. Boston.  That will test my loyalty, but on the plus side- it will probably be very low owned.  

 
Just cashed in the early slate, main I had the same problem as KP- big money bats did little especially Stl. Did get SP right at night using Covey/Bauer.

$4 in $3 out.

 
Heads up, I'm going to work half a day then walk over to see the game today. The Tigers have lost the last 9 games I've been to and most have been low scoring.

Today's slates are pretty trashy so just doing an all day 3man and probably a pickem for the late games.

 
Raging weasel said:
Heads up, I'm going to work half a day then walk over to see the game today. The Tigers have lost the last 9 games I've been to and most have been low scoring.

Today's slates are pretty trashy so just doing an all day 3man and probably a pickem for the late games.
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I don't even see a pick 'em option tonight.  

 
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