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MLB 2019 (1 Viewer)

Skipping the main slate to avoid Coors and using this in the express slate-

Sale,Alcantara,Realmuto,Freeman,Lowe,Diaz,Adames,Granderson,Harper,Dean

 
Swapped out Freeman,Adames and Grand for Choi,Segura and Markakis and scored 154+ that won a $1 10man and min cashed in a $. 25 so $1.25 in and $9.37 out 

Lost $3 on FD as I had the wrong Cool guys and Alcantara's 25 wasn't enough.

 
Uggh, why did I use Paxton?!! Will probably hold on for $5 but currently in 2nd in a $1 gpp on DK with 142 and 20 innings left cashing for $125 .

 
Got a little balance recharge on DK last night.  Did a quick $1 showdown for the SD/Col game and got 3rd for $100.   That should keep me going there for a bit.  I am tapped out on FD after a major cold run, but don't think I will bother transferring any over there.  Probably better for me to focus on one or the other with the scoring differences.   I will focus on the positive, and try not to remember that Blackmon's hit in the last inning took me out of 1st and dropped me from $200 to $100.  ;)

 
Did OK this afternoon.   Entered a $1 gpp for the early slate and got 10th for $6.  Was up to 2nd for a bit, but people caught up in the late games.  

 
I was reading THIS article on RG and thought it was a good reminder about the differences in scoring on the sites.  DK having more weight to HRs, 3Bs, 1Bs, and stolen bases for batters, and a wider range of outcomes for SPs because of the higher negative points for hits/walks/ERs, but the bigger boost for Ks/IPs and for complete games.  

It also pointed out that they don't give negative points for a loss, so on DK you can maybe take more shots on SPs on worse teams, and they don't give negative points for SO in hitting, so you can take more shots on power guys that might K more.  

I need this reminder, but I know @Steeler was also looking for tips recently too.  

 
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So I'm in today's DK MLB $250k web gem, and I notice that most of the pros have multiple lineups with Detroit Tigers stacks, like 5-6 Tigers each. So what do they all know that we don't know? It can't just be to chase low ownership. It makes no sense unless maybe you have some sort of inside info because no model would spit out a lineup with all Tigers. And as I write this the Tigers are up 7-1 in the 3rd inning. 

Update 1: lol PIT wins 8-7 but 5 Tigers still in first place lineup although that probably won't hold up. Still I really want to know how the pros know to pick these types of lineups.  

Update 2: I finished in the top 40 with a lineup with no Tigers. I'll take it :)

 
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So I'm in today's DK MLB $250k web gem, and I notice that most of the pros have multiple lineups with Detroit Tigers stacks, like 5-6 Tigers each. So what do they all know that we don't know? It can't just be to chase low ownership. It makes no sense unless maybe you have some sort of inside info because no model would spit out a lineup with all Tigers. And as I write this the Tigers are up 7-1 in the 3rd inning. 

Update 1: lol PIT wins 8-7 but 5 Tigers still in first place lineup although that probably won't hold up. Still I really want to know how the pros know to pick these types of lineups.  

Update 2: I finished in the top 40 with a lineup with no Tigers. I'll take it :)
I thinks it's probably that they are so cheap. On DK this year it's hard to find usable players at 3.7k and almost the whole lineup is below that with some sub 3k. And in the fact that Pitt has crappy pitching and I can see it. Not for SE but if you're doing 50+ lineups it makes sense I guess.

My lineups in both sites were tanked by Heaney last night and even Trout couldn't save them 

 
So I'm in today's DK MLB $250k web gem, and I notice that most of the pros have multiple lineups with Detroit Tigers stacks, like 5-6 Tigers each. So what do they all know that we don't know? It can't just be to chase low ownership. It makes no sense unless maybe you have some sort of inside info because no model would spit out a lineup with all Tigers. And as I write this the Tigers are up 7-1 in the 3rd inning. 

Update 1: lol PIT wins 8-7 but 5 Tigers still in first place lineup although that probably won't hold up. Still I really want to know how the pros know to pick these types of lineups.  

Update 2: I finished in the top 40 with a lineup with no Tigers. I'll take it :)
I wonder these things too, but they seem to take away so much info on sites unless you are paying $100+ or something.  

Bullpen? Weather? hitting friendly ump?  They model out well vs. the SPs pitch mix?  Just cheap/low owned?   

 
Today on first glance I am leaning heavily towards using 2 SPs in the 7k-8k range and HR hunting with teams like LAA, Minn, Milw, etc.  

 
Today on first glance I am leaning heavily towards using 2 SPs in the 7k-8k range and HR hunting with teams like LAA, Minn, Milw, etc.  
I've been playing more MLB lately because NFL, NHL, NBA are done and this has been my strategy pretty much every day.  I've been playing multiple lineups in the 10 cent tournament (I can't imagine how bad the ROI is for this effort, but whatever :lol:  ).  On a related note, are you guys aware of DK achievements?  They are running an MLB one right now that awards 1.5K crowns if you have at least one player homer from all 30 MLB teams before July 7th.  I know it's gamification designed to increase interest in MLB / DFS in general but if we are already playing why not take notice of it?

 
I've been playing more MLB lately because NFL, NHL, NBA are done and this has been my strategy pretty much every day.  I've been playing multiple lineups in the 10 cent tournament (I can't imagine how bad the ROI is for this effort, but whatever :lol:  ).  On a related note, are you guys aware of DK achievements?  They are running an MLB one right now that awards 1.5K crowns if you have at least one player homer from all 30 MLB teams before July 7th.  I know it's gamification designed to increase interest in MLB / DFS in general but if we are already playing why not take notice of it?
I wonder when this started? I'm at 6/30  and would need almost 2 HRs/day- don't think that's going to happen.

After a week+ hot steak I'm back in a cold streak  :(

oh yeah and F the Nationals for canceling games when it doesn't even rain!!

 
Lost a couple bucks.  I had a lot of my one offs right, but the stacks sucked.  Valdez also sucked. 

I need to be talked off this idea today- I was staring at how cheap the Paxton/Nola combo is looking.  

 
Uggh, why did I use Paxton?!! Will probably hold on for $5 but currently in 2nd in a $1 gpp on DK with 142 and 20 innings left cashing for $125 .
Paxton is on my #### list from the last time I used him and he got negative 9+ points. I finished 13 points out of 1st in this gpp and literally any other SP that day would have won it for me .

I used Bundy/Urias last night but other than Trout and Iglesias my bats didn't do much so missed cashing by 8.

I'm going Nola/Bauer tonight so far.

 
Paxton is on my #### list from the last time I used him and he got negative 9+ points. I finished 13 points out of 1st in this gpp and literally any other SP that day would have won it for me .

I used Bundy/Urias last night but other than Trout and Iglesias my bats didn't do much so missed cashing by 8.

I'm going Nola/Bauer tonight so far.
I might try Nola/Canning instead.  

My crazy idea is trying a super cheap team like SF (roof open in AZ!) with 2 guys like Sale/Bauer. 

 
Evidently too many ties in the tiers contest.  $1 in there, 3 cents out.  

Cashed 1 LU, but still ended up down a couple bucks on the night.  

 
I can't seem to pick the right pitchers lately or rather I pick the guys that get lit up for negative points for the only time in the last 10 games. 

When you construct lineups, do you guys start with pitchers or hitters or it depends?

It seems like the only chance to cash in any gpp is to get the pitchers right, whereas you can miss on a batter or two and still finish well. 

 
I always start with my pitchers and go from there. Usually start in the under 9k range so there is money for bats. On FD it's much easier to pay up for SP because you only need 1 and bats are more affordable. Plus SPs score better there( no negatives other than runs,QS ).

Cashed for $5 in a $1 SE last night using CC/Pomeranz+Yanks+Phils+cubs

 
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I'm paying up for pitchers today on DK. Going stars and scrubs. For bats, I like TEX a lot vs DET. We'll see how that works out.

 
I'm going Bieber/Chavez with Yank,Cle bats.

Bassett way too cheap on FD(too $$ on DK) so using him with Tex/Yanks
My DK lineups are mostly Scherzer/Cole and scrubs the rest of the way with as many TEX, HOU, TOR, LAD bats as I could get cheap. 

 
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Got Chavez right but spent on all the wrong bats other than Judge. Stanton hurt again so only 1 AB and my guys all have 3-8 points. Not cashing tonight.

 
Got Chavez right but spent on all the wrong bats other than Judge. Stanton hurt again so only 1 AB and my guys all have 3-8 points. Not cashing tonight.
I need Will Smith to do something here in order to cash. Same deal, I spent on the wrong bats other than Judge and DJ. But my late game lineups all have Trout, Upton, Ohtani. They are starting to heat up here in the 5th so there's still hope for a positive result. 

BTW, I've been trying a couple of "expert" sites for advice and I can conclusively say they are terrible and a complete waste of money. Not just today but every single time I've followed their rankings. And one of them is run by one of the top DFS players. 

 
Hope your guys came through,I didn't break 90 on either site.

Which expert sites have you tried? I did the rotogrinders free trial last year and thought the same thing.

 
On another cold streak, but I think that's my usual MLB season - lose 80% of the time, but hit on a couple gpps that help recharge the balance a bit.  Home sick today, so I might throw in a couple more LUs in than my usual $1 here and there I have been doing.  

 
I can't seem to pick the right pitchers lately or rather I pick the guys that get lit up for negative points for the only time in the last 10 games. 

When you construct lineups, do you guys start with pitchers or hitters or it depends?

It seems like the only chance to cash in any gpp is to get the pitchers right, whereas you can miss on a batter or two and still finish well. 
I mostly look at SPs first, especially now that I am on DK only and have to figure out 2 of them.  LIke RW said, and I think I posted before - for gpps I try to keep my SP pairing to under 18K so that I am starting with about 4K/batter, and usually try to get 16K or lower.   Of course that depends on the slates and the options.  Smaller slates I might have to deviate from that, but the huge 13-15 game slates I rarely do.   That doesn't mean I will never go with a guy like Sale, just that if I do on a big slate I will try to pair him with a sub 7k crapper.  If not, will go with 2 in the mid range.  

I still look at the same stuff for DK:  Ks are king, so I look at SP K%, their swinging K%, and the opposing team's k% vs. handedness of SP.   After I have that list, I tie break with SP walk%, WHIP, and chances of a win, where they are playing and if they are home/away.  

Specifically, I want K% over 20%, swinging K over 10%, and opponent Ks over 20%. Team average is nice, but I also look at plate IQ and see how many batters going against that SP have a K% over 20%. I like to have 5+ batters with 20%+ K rate.   

 
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I need Will Smith to do something here in order to cash. Same deal, I spent on the wrong bats other than Judge and DJ. But my late game lineups all have Trout, Upton, Ohtani. They are starting to heat up here in the 5th so there's still hope for a positive result. 

BTW, I've been trying a couple of "expert" sites for advice and I can conclusively say they are terrible and a complete waste of money. Not just today but every single time I've followed their rankings. And one of them is run by one of the top DFS players. 
I am under the impression that you either need to pay WAY up or just try your best with free info.  I've tried a couple subscriptions without any luck and they always seem to have more and more info that you need to pay for - ie RG have the different projection systems as upgrades and other upgrades.  I listen to the RG podcast a bit, and it seems like 4-5 times a week they are sweating a top 10 placement, but it sure doesn't seem to be from the info they provide.  

That said, I still think rotogrinders has the best free info in a one-stop shop place.  Between the Plate IQ and the LU builder, I rarely feel the need to look at much else.  The one thing they had on the free info last year that I am annoyed they put behind the pay wall is the bullpen data.  

I think to consistently be OK at gpps you at least need:  umpire data and tendencies, bullpen data and odds of who is coming in as middle reliever, etc., ownership %.  All of that is behind the paywall.  You would think all of that would be built into the LU builder, but I can't think of a time where I used their LU builder and have been happy with it.  I think all of my higher placing LU were stuff I did on the fly.  

 
One last thing I do like to do is use the RG Projected starting LUs link.  They have a slider on there where you can only highlight players with a specific salary range.  I like to take a quick peek at this after I think about my SPs to try to find a cheap stack (if I am going the stack route) or just cheap bats in general.   

 
I am guessing that Sale + somebody plus Yankee bats will be the popular build.  Just noticed after I used the slider for bats 4.4K and under that Judge/Hicks/Voit are all highlighted along with Didi and Gardner. 

I think for cash you probably wouldn't look much farther down than Sale/Paxton/G.Marq.  

For gpps, I think Bundy and Strahm are boom/bust options that have K upside for gpps.  

My weird gpp idea of the day is KC.  Bauer giving up .360 woba and .225ISO to LHBs on the season, so Gordon would be in play.  Just looking at batter stats, Dozier and Soler both have +.300ISO vs RHPs.   I don't think I go more than that 3 man, but I might try that in one of my LUs.  (probably putting together 5 entries today). 

 
I'm going Sale/Strahm+Cle+Bos+Didi in the early slate. Couldn't get enough bats I liked mixing 2 of Paxton,Marquez,Bundy so just went with Sale and cheapest guy I hope doesn't kill me.

 
I am guessing that Sale + somebody plus Yankee bats will be the popular build.  Just noticed after I used the slider for bats 4.4K and under that Judge/Hicks/Voit are all highlighted along with Didi and Gardner. 

I think for cash you probably wouldn't look much farther down than Sale/Paxton/G.Marq.  

For gpps, I think Bundy and Strahm are boom/bust options that have K upside for gpps.  

My weird gpp idea of the day is KC.  Bauer giving up .360 woba and .225ISO to LHBs on the season, so Gordon would be in play.  Just looking at batter stats, Dozier and Soler both have +.300ISO vs RHPs.   I don't think I go more than that 3 man, but I might try that in one of my LUs.  (probably putting together 5 entries today). 
well you were right that was the popular build. And it looks like it would have been a good fade so far. 

 
Got 2 of 5 cashing thanks to L.Gurriel, but not sure if that will continue.  I think I have paxton or sale in all, and had 0 bauer.  

Have one lu that so far just has Paxton and Judge and I tried a Balt/Sd game stack.  

Have a tiers lu sitting at 4th (again, thanks to gurriel) with bellinger left, so maybe this can keep me even for the early slate.  

 
Raging weasel said:
Hope your guys came through,I didn't break 90 on either site.

Which expert sites have you tried? I did the rotogrinders free trial last year and thought the same thing.
awesemo.com. The guy wins a lot, but his own gpp lineups don't typically reflect the advise on the site. The only sport where I have found that site to be somewhat useful is golf. 

The worst site is sportsline.com for pretty much any sport. It's almost better if you just use their projections and lineups as a contrarian indicator. I have a higher win rate going against their experts. There is one guy in particular on that site that is just terrible but their main DFS expert. I've been tracking his lineups for a while and it's close to a 100% loss rate. But he'll cherry pick one player that hit big and tout that performance as if he made anyone money. 

 
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Hehe, yeah I hate sportsline but do enjoy the awesomo radio show.

Scout fantasy sports used to have great free stuff but someone bought them out and forced them to suck

 
sportsline does suck the most. 

I think most of the pros have their own projection system, and use that independently of their takes on the sites. 

 
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Once again got cheap SP right but other than Didi and JDmart my bats were cold. Scored 110.6 which was 12 below cash line- Bauer over Sale would have min cashed.

 

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