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Mmmmm, this crow tastes delicious. (1 Viewer)

Hot Sauce Guy

Footballguy
What’s 1 preseason call you made here that you were totally, absolutely, “dear lord how could I have possibly believed that?!” unquestionably wrong about? 

Knife & fork in hand, I will say that I was completely wrong about Tyrod Taylor. “What a bargain! How is this dude going so low?! He has incredible weapons! Josh Gordon, Duke Johnson, they got Landry! He doesn’t throw picks & he’ll score with his legs! Look out for Tyrod Taylor to be a top 10 fantasy QB this year” were some of the things I posted or thought about him.

mmmmmmmm, these oily feathers...so so tasty. 

Come on now - I know I’m not alone. You're among friends - let’s hear it. 

 

Bronco Billy

Footballguy
My lineup decisions every freakin week.  I’ve got a solid team and always seem to pick the wrong guys to start.  

I was wrong on Taylor as well.  I thought (and was hoping) he’d keep Mayfield off the field all year.  Also thought Crowell would be a locked in RB2 and that Cam Meredith would thrive as a WR2 in NO.

.

 
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efactor

Footballguy
Devonta Freeman would thrive in year 2 post Shanahan.

Granted, he got hurt, but based on the two healthy games he started, I didn't see him thriving even if he stayed healthy.  

 

zamboni

Footballguy
2018 David Johnson would revert back to 2016 David Johnson after a whole year of rest. The new coaching staff would lean on him heavily with a limited but veteran presence in Sam Bradford behind center and not a lot of receiving options outside of an aging Fitz.

 
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fred_1_15301

Footballguy
I thought James Washington would replace JuJu as the #2 option in Pit. I was very wrong 
Really?  Juju looked like a budding star last year.  What on Earth would make you think that he would be passed by Washington?  If anything, I feel like it was more likely that he would pass AB as # 1

 

Birdie048

Footballguy
That Chris Hogan would be a top 12ish option this year, drafted him all over the place, sometimes a round or more higher than his ADP to ensure getting him. Also, figured Jimmy Graham might hit 12 td's this year, badly wrong on both ?
Chris Hogan would be Brady's #1 Target.... Gronk would have limited time on field (injury) and RB's are too crowded to have a clear leader!  

I even drafted him in the 2nd round! 

 

Hot Sauce Guy

Footballguy
I thought Adam Thielen had a career year in 2017 and his numbers would come back to earth in 2018.  Had a chance to draft him but took Gronkowski instead.

Oops.
Seems everyone in one of my leagues also thought that, allowing me to get him as my WR3.

You’re not alone. There were a lot of skeptics, and an awful lot of writers thought Diggs was a better fit for Cousins skill set. (I, among them, though i thought Thielen was legit). 

 

sportsphysio

Footballguy
Doubling down on the Gruden magic and drafting the high powered Carr-Cooper connection...thank God all of my other draft picks and snagging Conner have more than panned out in my favor to overcome that brain fart.

 

Hilts

Footballguy
Elite qb's are incredibly valuable, so I should draft Wilson fairly early. And because I have Wilson, I don't need to gamble on lottery tickets like Mahomes as I'm better off using the space for other positions. 

 

Interseptopus

Footballguy
I'm losing a lot of weight this year compared to previous years due to lack of crow as I definitely have gotten far more right than wrong. However, it doesn't mean I haven't gotten anything wrong.

Mariota was going to be a top 10, possibly top 5 QB this year. Along with Corey Davis being a WR1

That's about it. I've had a lot of hits this year. I'll enjoy it while I can. 

 

wikkidpissah

Footballguy
I am eating the seconds that you couldn’t finish on this one, myself. Mmmmmm, crow. :doh:  
Hey!!

I am eating pigeon over various Giants - tho Saquon's breakaways have bailed me out a little bit. After yrs of railing on Eli's POSness, i just thought a bellcow back, ODB got his monayyyy, another yr's development for Engram & Shephard and adding two hi-profile OL would give the most undeserving HOFer ever one last star turn and all his weapons would just light it up. CAWWWWful!!

 

menobrown

Footballguy
You’re not alone. There were a lot of skeptics, and an awful lot of writers thought Diggs was a better fit for Cousins skill set. (I, among them, though i thought Thielen was legit). 
I took Thielen in one redraft out of a little over 30 and regretted it after. Thought in preseason that Diggs did in fact have better connection.  Started to make me think that Shurmur knew how to use Thielen and I started worrying about stuff like what if they don't play in the slot as much as last year for Diggs  and what if he can't cut if he's got to do more work as as outside WR.

I replied earlier on this thread to mention what I the player I missed big on with respect to wanting to and drafting them was Cooper.  But if I'm looking at this as the big misses for the year with respect to players I was not high enough on and either barely or never drafted that would be Thielen who I only drafted once and James White who I never drafted.

I'm thinking of top of my head that Thielen and White are the two biggest steals of redraft with Mahomes pretty close. I was huge on Mahomes at least.

 

DocHolliday

Footballguy
I bought into the  "Amari Cooper will be the centerpiece of the offense"  and Tim Brown pegging him for 120 catches in this system talk.
I got Cooper way wrong too.  I overpaid for Diggs.  He is OK but not what I expected. 

I never would have guessed Mahomes was going to light it up every week like he is doing.  He is going to be on a lot of winning FF teams this year. 

 

Hot Sauce Guy

Footballguy
 Wot

thank God all of my other draft picks and snagging Conner have more than panned out in my favor to overcome that brain fart.
I see this topic as a mulligan - no negative judgement for making bad calls. Sometimes this is the kind of thinking that can win you a league. 

Both Carr & Cooper had upside for their ADP. This might have worked out perfectly.

they didn’t, but I can’t fault the logic in taking the risk that it might have. 

I’ll take you way back to one of my best years ever in FFB. In the 6th round i took a dude returning from a serious knee injury that no one wanted to touch as my RB3, and QB who most thought was a flash in the pan in an unpredictable offense the 7th. Jamaal Lewis ran for 2000+ that year & Tom Brady lit the league on fire. My team was unstoppable that year. Points lead, LCG, single game high score, etc. 

But no question those 2 picks could easily have been described in a topic like this if they didn’t work out. 

Its part of why I posted this topic - as a community we all have our individual experiences, and can grow from them. Reading through these can be informative, as it helps us to collectively escape group-think and evaluate our processes for rating players where we do. 

In your example I don’t really see a brain fart - more a calculated risk that didn’t work out. :)  

 

Hot Sauce Guy

Footballguy
Sure, the Cardinals will be bad, but they've still got an elite talent in David Johnson and will figure out how to use him effectively so he's impossible to ignore in the top 5 and I have to draft him. 
I’m guilty of this - I had DJ as a no-brainer top 4 pick. Thank god I picked at 1 & 11 this year. 

 

fred_1_15301

Footballguy
In one of my leagues I went Barkley and somehow was able to get McCaffrey in the 2nd.  I ended up with Fitzgerald (my # 1 receiver), D Thomas and Corey Davis (who I figured would be a steal as my # 3).  Fortunately it hasn’t killed me because I have Edelman and picked up Boyd.

 

Ratbone

Footballguy
I thought Pittsburg's offense would fall apart. This was based on offensive coordinator changes and Ben's health.  I avoided them all. I was really wrong. 

 

Hot Sauce Guy

Footballguy
But if I'm looking at this as the big misses for the year with respect to players I was not high enough on and either barely or never drafted that would be Thielen who I only drafted once and James White who I never drafted.

I'm thinking of top of my head that Thielen and White are the two biggest steals of redraft with Mahomes pretty close. I was huge on Mahomes at least.
In the league I have White I was looking at my list and needed a RB3/depth badly - I hated the NEP situation with (at the time) so many mouths to feed and so little predictability & took white while saying “well at least I know he had a defined role”

While I’d love to say i’m a psychic / guru / master of my craft, the truth is that it was a dart throw & I had no idea how good of a pick it was at the time. I just knew he seemed like he’d have more value than any of the scrubs left on my list. 

Sometimes it just works out. I’d always rather be lucky than good. ;)  

 

efactor

Footballguy
I was super high on Mahomes this year and got him in 2 of 4 leagues, but want to punch myself in the nuts because I waited a round too long in my other 2.  

Should have guessed that others were high on him too.....................

 

FF Ninja

Footballguy
I thought Adam Thielen had a career year in 2017 and his numbers would come back to earth in 2018.  
You were not alone.  :bag:

I've got a few guys I was too low on, but when it comes to guys I was too high on, most were cheap so no big deal. However, the most expensive bust on my redraft teams is Corey Davis. I thought he was going to break out this year. Instead the Titans offense just broke. Or I guess I should say it stayed broken since it sucked last year, too.

 

menobrown

Footballguy
I was super high on Mahomes this year and got him in 2 of 4 leagues, but want to punch myself in the nuts because I waited a round too long in my other 2.  

Should have guessed that others were high on him too.....................
I was high on him and drafted him  a ton but the one thing that kept my ownership of him as more solid than enormous was in hindsight being overly concerned with his schedule. Seems like an almost laughable concern now.

 

fightingillini

Footballguy
 However, the most expensive bust on my redraft teams is Corey Davis. I thought he was going to break out this year. Instead the Titans offense just broke. Or I guess I should say it stayed broken since it sucked last year, too.
I liked Davis a lot as well.  But we were betting on Mariota to take the next step.  Instead, 1) he's not 100% healthy and 2) he kinda sucks.  Kind of hard to break out when your QB isn't that good.

 

efactor

Footballguy
I was high on him and drafted him  a ton but the one thing that kept my ownership of him as more solid than enormous was in hindsight being overly concerned with his schedule. Seems like an almost laughable concern now.
Yep.  Every concern ab out him seems laughable now.  1st year starter.  Last years leading rusher meaning a balanced offense in this first year as a starter.  Playing Denver and San Diego secondaries twice.

 

hardcoredx

Footballguy
Cooper and Mariotta. I thought for sure based on Grudens previous Wrs, Cooper would produce. Mariotta, I thought wouldn’t take the next step because of Davis. He may very well have a nice 2nd half run In him as his elbow gets better.

 

Itchy Amos

Footballguy
I was so upset that FBGs updated their rankings just before my draft and moved Fournette way up.  I wanted to draft him  at #7 in the worst way.  He got taken just before my pick and I was so bummed.   Its amazing how many times my seasons have been "saved" by somebody else taking the guy that I wanted - only to see him bust. 

I thought that Diggs was going to be the main man in Minn & Theilan was going to suffer.

I was so pumped to get Royce Freeman in the 4th round.  Turns out that Peyton Barber wasn't an absolute steal in the 8th. 

I too believed that Tyrod Taylor was going to be solid.  Luckily, I thought the same thing about Mahomes so I drafted them both.   Win some, lose some. 

 

Timmypg

Footballguy
Really?  Juju looked like a budding star last year.  What on Earth would make you think that he would be passed by Washington?  If anything, I feel like it was more likely that he would pass AB as # 1
 I don't have a rational explanation I just had a gut feeling that JuJu was a fluke. 

 

zftcg

Footballguy
I drafted particularly well this year and I attribute that in part to missing out on a bunch of guys I was targeting who now loom as major bullets dodged: DCook, Drake, Lynch, Reed, Jimmy G. I would have been thrilled with any one of those guys, but ended up with zero shares.

 

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