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MNF**Chicago at New England** (-8.5) (40) (1 Viewer)

Ministry of Pain

Footballguy
Looks like Damien Harris is suiting up tonight and I won't be surprised if he ends up with more carries and touches than Stevenson.
After RS big game vs Cleveland last year, RS went 8, 4, 8 and 5 his next 4 weeks.
The difference this year is obviously he is no longer a Rookie.
Stevenson has had 44 carries and a total of 50 touches over the last 2 weeks, I'm thinking they will lighten the load at home tonight.

61 FD via the run allowed by the Bears Defense vs just 34 by the NEP
Both teams are strong at getting pressure on the opposing QB when you add up the QBH, QBKD and sacks they both are about Top 5.
Might be a low scoring affair but the Patriots will run the ball enough to win the game.

Final Score: New England 22...Chicago 9
Weather not much of a factor this evening, 50s with not a lot of wind.
 
Last edited:

yoman

Footballguy
Thankfully this is the last time we have to watch the Bears in prime time. I think you are a little overly optimistic that the Bears can score 9 points .
 

Anarchy99

Footballguy
Looks like Damien Harris is suiting up tonight and I won't be surprised if he ends up with more carries and touches than Stevenson.
After his big game vs Cleveland last year he went 8, 4, 8 and 5 his next 4 weeks.
The difference this year is obviously he is no longer a Rookie.
Stevenson has had 44 carries and a total of 50 touches over the last 2 weeks, I'm sure they will lighten the load at home tonight.

61 FD via the run allowed by the Bears Defense vs just 34 by the NEP
Both teams are strong at getting pressure on the opposing QB when you add up the QBH, QBKD and sacks they both are about Top 5.
Might be a low scoring affair but the Patriots will run the ball enough to win the game.

Final Score: New England 22...Chicago 9
Weather not much of a factor this evening, 50s with not a lot of wind.
I have no idea what you mean by this. Which guy are you talking about? I assume you mean RS, as Harris didn't play against CLE last year. Assuming you mean RS, do you mean touches after the Cleveland game in 2021? He had 13, 9, 24, and 11 his next 4 weeks. If you mean fantasy points, he had 14.5, 4.6, 7.8, 11, and 22.7 points the month after the Browns game.

IMO, Stevenson sees more snaps, more touches, more receptions, and more YFS than Harris tonight. That's not exactly covering any new ground, as that's how things were trending even before Harris got hurt. However, Harris still gets more goal line work than Stevenson, so they might end up with similar total fantasy points if Harris gets a couple of bunnies at the goal line. I also think RS has a greater chance of breaking off a big run than Harris does.

The other unknown is how much Mac Jones wants to show that he should be the starter in perpetuity. Handing the ball off 35 times doesn't promote that narrative. I suppose they could run a lot of play action and maybe Mac put up an efficient line of 17-20-200-2-0 and the backs run it 30 times.
 

Anarchy99

Footballguy
I had this game circled as an easy DFS showdown given how the points will be concentrated. Now we have RS/Harris uncertainty and Jones/Zappe uncertainty.
There shouldn't be any Jones / Zappe uncertainty. Short of Jones reinjuring his ankle walking onto the field (or during the game), we should see Jones all game.
 

BobbyLayne

Footballguy
MO, Stevenson sees more snaps, more touches, more receptions, and more YFS than Harris tonight. That's not exactly covering any new ground, as that's how things were trending even before Harris got hurt. However, Harris still gets more goal line work than Stevenson, so they might end up with similar total fantasy points if Harris gets a couple of bunnies at the goal line. I also think RS has a greater chance of breaking off a big run than Harris does.

💯
 

Ministry of Pain

Footballguy
Looks like Damien Harris is suiting up tonight and I won't be surprised if he ends up with more carries and touches than Stevenson.
After his big game vs Cleveland last year he went 8, 4, 8 and 5 his next 4 weeks.
The difference this year is obviously he is no longer a Rookie.
Stevenson has had 44 carries and a total of 50 touches over the last 2 weeks, I'm sure they will lighten the load at home tonight.

61 FD via the run allowed by the Bears Defense vs just 34 by the NEP
Both teams are strong at getting pressure on the opposing QB when you add up the QBH, QBKD and sacks they both are about Top 5.
Might be a low scoring affair but the Patriots will run the ball enough to win the game.

Final Score: New England 22...Chicago 9
Weather not much of a factor this evening, 50s with not a lot of wind.
I have no idea what you mean by this. Which guy are you talking about? I assume you mean RS, as Harris didn't play against CLE last year. Assuming you mean RS, do you mean touches after the Cleveland game in 2021? He had 13, 9, 24, and 11 his next 4 weeks. If you mean fantasy points, he had 14.5, 4.6, 7.8, 11, and 22.7 points the month after the Browns game.

IMO, Stevenson sees more snaps, more touches, more receptions, and more YFS than Harris tonight. That's not exactly covering any new ground, as that's how things were trending even before Harris got hurt. However, Harris still gets more goal line work than Stevenson, so they might end up with similar total fantasy points if Harris gets a couple of bunnies at the goal line. I also think RS has a greater chance of breaking off a big run than Harris does.

The other unknown is how much Mac Jones wants to show that he should be the starter in perpetuity. Handing the ball off 35 times doesn't promote that narrative. I suppose they could run a lot of play action and maybe Mac put up an efficient line of 17-20-200-2-0 and the backs run it 30 times.
RS after Cleveland last year...you want to look at those FF totals again?
Redraft-PPR, Weeks 11, 12, 13, Bye and 15...8.4, 4.6, 7.8 and 5...he was a dud for several weeks but I'm glad you point out he continued to touch the football, the production was not outstanding.
 

Anarchy99

Footballguy
Looks like Damien Harris is suiting up tonight and I won't be surprised if he ends up with more carries and touches than Stevenson.
After his big game vs Cleveland last year he went 8, 4, 8 and 5 his next 4 weeks.
The difference this year is obviously he is no longer a Rookie.
Stevenson has had 44 carries and a total of 50 touches over the last 2 weeks, I'm sure they will lighten the load at home tonight.

61 FD via the run allowed by the Bears Defense vs just 34 by the NEP
Both teams are strong at getting pressure on the opposing QB when you add up the QBH, QBKD and sacks they both are about Top 5.
Might be a low scoring affair but the Patriots will run the ball enough to win the game.

Final Score: New England 22...Chicago 9
Weather not much of a factor this evening, 50s with not a lot of wind.
I have no idea what you mean by this. Which guy are you talking about? I assume you mean RS, as Harris didn't play against CLE last year. Assuming you mean RS, do you mean touches after the Cleveland game in 2021? He had 13, 9, 24, and 11 his next 4 weeks. If you mean fantasy points, he had 14.5, 4.6, 7.8, 11, and 22.7 points the month after the Browns game.

IMO, Stevenson sees more snaps, more touches, more receptions, and more YFS than Harris tonight. That's not exactly covering any new ground, as that's how things were trending even before Harris got hurt. However, Harris still gets more goal line work than Stevenson, so they might end up with similar total fantasy points if Harris gets a couple of bunnies at the goal line. I also think RS has a greater chance of breaking off a big run than Harris does.

The other unknown is how much Mac Jones wants to show that he should be the starter in perpetuity. Handing the ball off 35 times doesn't promote that narrative. I suppose they could run a lot of play action and maybe Mac put up an efficient line of 17-20-200-2-0 and the backs run it 30 times.
RS after Cleveland last year...you want to look at those FF totals again?
Redraft-PPR, Weeks 11, 12, 13, Bye and 15...8.4, 4.6, 7.8 and 5...he was a dud for several weeks but I'm glad you point out he continued to touch the football, the production was not outstanding.
Not sure where you are getting your numbers from . . . 2021 Game Logs.
 

Ministry of Pain

Footballguy
Looks like Damien Harris is suiting up tonight and I won't be surprised if he ends up with more carries and touches than Stevenson.
After his big game vs Cleveland last year he went 8, 4, 8 and 5 his next 4 weeks.
The difference this year is obviously he is no longer a Rookie.
Stevenson has had 44 carries and a total of 50 touches over the last 2 weeks, I'm sure they will lighten the load at home tonight.

61 FD via the run allowed by the Bears Defense vs just 34 by the NEP
Both teams are strong at getting pressure on the opposing QB when you add up the QBH, QBKD and sacks they both are about Top 5.
Might be a low scoring affair but the Patriots will run the ball enough to win the game.

Final Score: New England 22...Chicago 9
Weather not much of a factor this evening, 50s with not a lot of wind.
I have no idea what you mean by this. Which guy are you talking about? I assume you mean RS, as Harris didn't play against CLE last year. Assuming you mean RS, do you mean touches after the Cleveland game in 2021? He had 13, 9, 24, and 11 his next 4 weeks. If you mean fantasy points, he had 14.5, 4.6, 7.8, 11, and 22.7 points the month after the Browns game.

IMO, Stevenson sees more snaps, more touches, more receptions, and more YFS than Harris tonight. That's not exactly covering any new ground, as that's how things were trending even before Harris got hurt. However, Harris still gets more goal line work than Stevenson, so they might end up with similar total fantasy points if Harris gets a couple of bunnies at the goal line. I also think RS has a greater chance of breaking off a big run than Harris does.

The other unknown is how much Mac Jones wants to show that he should be the starter in perpetuity. Handing the ball off 35 times doesn't promote that narrative. I suppose they could run a lot of play action and maybe Mac put up an efficient line of 17-20-200-2-0 and the backs run it 30 times.
RS after Cleveland last year...you want to look at those FF totals again?
Redraft-PPR, Weeks 11, 12, 13, Bye and 15...8.4, 4.6, 7.8 and 5...he was a dud for several weeks but I'm glad you point out he continued to touch the football, the production was not outstanding.
Not sure where you are getting your numbers from . . . 2021 Game Logs.
POINTS POINTS POINTS
Week 11...75 total yds and 1 catch equals 8.5 points, now go back and read what i wrote, please.

Thanks
 

Rubi

Footballguy
If Jones is healthy he starts,if he struggles The Dark Lord won't hesitate to pull him. If Harris is healthy he'll get equal opportunity with Stevenson early. The "hot hand" will get the most carries in the second half and be fantasy relevant. I feel for Fields and da bears offense tonight. The Pats defense is finding it's groove. It'll be close in the first half,da bears defense will see to that,but Lord Vader will command his captains to keep pounding the rock and it'll wear down da bears D in the second half. Fields gets confused,Pats D forces multiple turnovers...

New England- 31
Chicago- 6
 

Anarchy99

Footballguy
Looks like Damien Harris is suiting up tonight and I won't be surprised if he ends up with more carries and touches than Stevenson.
After his big game vs Cleveland last year he went 8, 4, 8 and 5 his next 4 weeks.
The difference this year is obviously he is no longer a Rookie.
Stevenson has had 44 carries and a total of 50 touches over the last 2 weeks, I'm sure they will lighten the load at home tonight.

61 FD via the run allowed by the Bears Defense vs just 34 by the NEP
Both teams are strong at getting pressure on the opposing QB when you add up the QBH, QBKD and sacks they both are about Top 5.
Might be a low scoring affair but the Patriots will run the ball enough to win the game.

Final Score: New England 22...Chicago 9
Weather not much of a factor this evening, 50s with not a lot of wind.
I have no idea what you mean by this. Which guy are you talking about? I assume you mean RS, as Harris didn't play against CLE last year. Assuming you mean RS, do you mean touches after the Cleveland game in 2021? He had 13, 9, 24, and 11 his next 4 weeks. If you mean fantasy points, he had 14.5, 4.6, 7.8, 11, and 22.7 points the month after the Browns game.

IMO, Stevenson sees more snaps, more touches, more receptions, and more YFS than Harris tonight. That's not exactly covering any new ground, as that's how things were trending even before Harris got hurt. However, Harris still gets more goal line work than Stevenson, so they might end up with similar total fantasy points if Harris gets a couple of bunnies at the goal line. I also think RS has a greater chance of breaking off a big run than Harris does.

The other unknown is how much Mac Jones wants to show that he should be the starter in perpetuity. Handing the ball off 35 times doesn't promote that narrative. I suppose they could run a lot of play action and maybe Mac put up an efficient line of 17-20-200-2-0 and the backs run it 30 times.
RS after Cleveland last year...you want to look at those FF totals again?
Redraft-PPR, Weeks 11, 12, 13, Bye and 15...8.4, 4.6, 7.8 and 5...he was a dud for several weeks but I'm glad you point out he continued to touch the football, the production was not outstanding.
Not sure where you are getting your numbers from . . . 2021 Game Logs.
POINTS POINTS POINTS
Week 11...75 total yds and 1 catch equals 8.5 points, now go back and read what i wrote, please.

Thanks
My bad. I was trying to look at the numbers on my phone and confused the TD column.

But now that I am on a desktop, since the Browns game last season, in games when both RS and DH were active and played in the same game (12 games), Harris has averaged 10.9 fantasy ppg (1 PPR) while Stevenson has averaged 10.5 ppg. The difference in total scoring has only been 4.7 points.

We'll have to monitor how the Pats play them moving forward. To start the season, NE was alternating drives with DH getting the first series. Then they switched things up a little bit, with RS getting most of the third down and two-minute work once Ty Montgomery went down. Prior to Harris getting hurt, on a few successful drives, they had Stevenson come out after some heavy usage on that particular drive and inserted Harris in at the goal line. Up until now, they seem to prefer Harris at the goal line . . . and that's worth a lot fantasy wise.

Against the Browns, CLE both stacked the box and ran run blitzes to neutralize Stevenson and dared Zappe to beat them. Bailey did just that. If you watched the game, there were 9 or 10 carries where Stevenson got hit in the backfield and was lucky to get back to the LOS. Not much he could have done. Either one of these backs could rip of a big play if the blocking is executed well. But I think Stevenson can make something out of nothing a lot more than Harris could.

I would guess that Stevenson gets a 60/40 split of touches tonight. Maybe that works out to 15 carries and 4 receptions to 12 carries and 1 catch for Harris. The weather might also be a factor, as it's been raining off-and-on all day (and could continue into the evening). If the field is slick, NE might be leery of having Harris tweak his injury,
 

Anarchy99

Footballguy
If Jones is healthy he starts,if he struggles The Dark Lord won't hesitate to pull him. If Harris is healthy he'll get equal opportunity with Stevenson early. The "hot hand" will get the most carries in the second half and be fantasy relevant. I feel for Fields and da bears offense tonight. The Pats defense is finding it's groove. It'll be close in the first half,da bears defense will see to that,but Lord Vader will command his captains to keep pounding the rock and it'll wear down da bears D in the second half. Fields gets confused,Pats D forces multiple turnovers...

New England- 31
Chicago- 6
The Jones / Zappe situation has been chronicled ad nauseum this week. The consensus of beat reporters settled on if Jones starts, he will stay in the game and will retain his starting job. Most local talking heads feel pulling Jones would send a terrible message and create a huge distraction. Teams don't generally go back and forth with QBs, and as the saying goes, if you have two starting QB then you really have none.
 

Ministry of Pain

Footballguy
Looks like Damien Harris is suiting up tonight and I won't be surprised if he ends up with more carries and touches than Stevenson.
After his big game vs Cleveland last year he went 8, 4, 8 and 5 his next 4 weeks.
The difference this year is obviously he is no longer a Rookie.
Stevenson has had 44 carries and a total of 50 touches over the last 2 weeks, I'm sure they will lighten the load at home tonight.

61 FD via the run allowed by the Bears Defense vs just 34 by the NEP
Both teams are strong at getting pressure on the opposing QB when you add up the QBH, QBKD and sacks they both are about Top 5.
Might be a low scoring affair but the Patriots will run the ball enough to win the game.

Final Score: New England 22...Chicago 9
Weather not much of a factor this evening, 50s with not a lot of wind.
I have no idea what you mean by this. Which guy are you talking about? I assume you mean RS, as Harris didn't play against CLE last year. Assuming you mean RS, do you mean touches after the Cleveland game in 2021? He had 13, 9, 24, and 11 his next 4 weeks. If you mean fantasy points, he had 14.5, 4.6, 7.8, 11, and 22.7 points the month after the Browns game.

IMO, Stevenson sees more snaps, more touches, more receptions, and more YFS than Harris tonight. That's not exactly covering any new ground, as that's how things were trending even before Harris got hurt. However, Harris still gets more goal line work than Stevenson, so they might end up with similar total fantasy points if Harris gets a couple of bunnies at the goal line. I also think RS has a greater chance of breaking off a big run than Harris does.

The other unknown is how much Mac Jones wants to show that he should be the starter in perpetuity. Handing the ball off 35 times doesn't promote that narrative. I suppose they could run a lot of play action and maybe Mac put up an efficient line of 17-20-200-2-0 and the backs run it 30 times.
RS after Cleveland last year...you want to look at those FF totals again?
Redraft-PPR, Weeks 11, 12, 13, Bye and 15...8.4, 4.6, 7.8 and 5...he was a dud for several weeks but I'm glad you point out he continued to touch the football, the production was not outstanding.
Not sure where you are getting your numbers from . . . 2021 Game Logs.
POINTS POINTS POINTS
Week 11...75 total yds and 1 catch equals 8.5 points, now go back and read what i wrote, please.

Thanks
My bad. I was trying to look at the numbers on my phone and confused the TD column.

But now that I am on a desktop, since the Browns game last season, in games when both RS and DH were active and played in the same game (12 games), Harris has averaged 10.9 fantasy ppg (1 PPR) while Stevenson has averaged 10.5 ppg. The difference in total scoring has only been 4.7 points.

We'll have to monitor how the Pats play them moving forward. To start the season, NE was alternating drives with DH getting the first series. Then they switched things up a little bit, with RS getting most of the third down and two-minute work once Ty Montgomery went down. Prior to Harris getting hurt, on a few successful drives, they had Stevenson come out after some heavy usage on that particular drive and inserted Harris in at the goal line. Up until now, they seem to prefer Harris at the goal line . . . and that's worth a lot fantasy wise.

Against the Browns, CLE both stacked the box and ran run blitzes to neutralize Stevenson and dared Zappe to beat them. Bailey did just that. If you watched the game, there were 9 or 10 carries where Stevenson got hit in the backfield and was lucky to get back to the LOS. Not much he could have done. Either one of these backs could rip of a big play if the blocking is executed well. But I think Stevenson can make something out of nothing a lot more than Harris could.

I would guess that Stevenson gets a 60/40 split of touches tonight. Maybe that works out to 15 carries and 4 receptions to 12 carries and 1 catch for Harris. The weather might also be a factor, as it's been raining off-and-on all day (and could continue into the evening). If the field is slick, NE might be leery of having Harris tweak his injury,
This!
Exactly what I wanted and now I will share how this has unfolded in multiple redrafts where I play. Drafted Harris late as an RB4/5 type, quickly found myself using him with Mitchell going down Week 1 and then someone cut Stevenson very early in the season and I actually dropped Harris for RS...and then Harris was cut or released in several leagues when he went down and I finally had the both of them and now I just have to pick the right one most weeks and my RB2 problems are solved.

Would love for RS to be the feature back but never get my hopes up.
You have a strong OL, good coaching and a decent game plan that works to both RBs advantage and your guidance and posts about what is actually happening in New England has made this an easy part of my early success this year in many of my leagues, cheap investment, solid payoff thus far.

Looking forward to a low scoring game tonight in my grey cutoff sweats drinking a tallboy of Narragansett Hi-Neighbor
 

Anarchy99

Footballguy
Since I am too lazy to look for the Patriots team thread and post this there, BB recently declined to give an update on the status of Ty Montgomery. Reporters did some digging and a source apparently indicated that Montgomery has an additional upper body injury beyond his ankle injury that is keeping him from returning. Who knows what that means, but Montgomery had been spotted around the team a couple of times since the season started a few weeks ago but now hasn't been seen in a while. The shroud of mystery when it comes to player injuries persists in NE.
 

SoBeDad

Footballguy
In my league, many eyes will be on Mac Jones, as he's on the waiver wire, in a tie with Pickett for ROS. I think NE is more likely to let Jones cook, although both have tough games on the schedule, Jones with NYJ (x2) and BUF.

But I'll also keep an eye on Fields, cause he's trending up and has ATL during the bye week for my starting QB, Geno Smith. I never thought I'd have Geno and Justin ... but the Lance injury and RW fiasco has me considering just that.
 

Anarchy99

Footballguy
Maybe it's the ultimate Monday Night sucker bet but NE by double digits seems about right. I don't think Fields suddenly figures things out against a BB defense.
Rookie QBs playing against BB defenses the first time have been anywhere from bad to terrible. The only thing Fields has going for him is NE sometimes has trouble containing running / mobile QBs. Sometimes they can get a lot of running yards or be mobile enough to keep plays alive to find someone open and extend drives. That being said, I think the NE offense is hitting their stride and the Bears offense looks like a mess right now. Not a good combination.
 

Rubi

Footballguy
If Jones is healthy he starts,if he struggles The Dark Lord won't hesitate to pull him. If Harris is healthy he'll get equal opportunity with Stevenson early. The "hot hand" will get the most carries in the second half and be fantasy relevant. I feel for Fields and da bears offense tonight. The Pats defense is finding it's groove. It'll be close in the first half,da bears defense will see to that,but Lord Vader will command his captains to keep pounding the rock and it'll wear down da bears D in the second half. Fields gets confused,Pats D forces multiple turnovers...

New England- 31
Chicago- 6
The Jones / Zappe situation has been chronicled ad nauseum this week. The consensus of beat reporters settled on if Jones starts, he will stay in the game and will retain his starting job. Most local talking heads feel pulling Jones would send a terrible message and create a huge distraction. Teams don't generally go back and forth with QBs, and as the saying goes, if you have two starting QB then you really have none.
Beat writers can speculate and that's fine. If any of them have covered Sir Bill long enough they should know he will do what he feels gives his team the best chance to win,if a player,any player, is not getting the job done to HIS satisfaction,Vader will replace him. For a series,a quarter,a game,whatever.
 

Ministry of Pain

Footballguy
Maybe it's the ultimate Monday Night sucker bet but NE by double digits seems about right. I don't think Fields suddenly figures things out against a BB defense.
Rookie QBs playing against BB defenses the first time have been anywhere from bad to terrible. The only thing Fields has going for him is NE sometimes has trouble containing running / mobile QBs. Sometimes they can get a lot of running yards or be mobile enough to keep plays alive to find someone open and extend drives. That being said, I think the NE offense is hitting their stride and the Bears offense looks like a mess right now. Not a good combination.
Fields isn't a Rookie but you're on to something and I agree with the rest of it
 

Anarchy99

Footballguy
If Jones is healthy he starts,if he struggles The Dark Lord won't hesitate to pull him. If Harris is healthy he'll get equal opportunity with Stevenson early. The "hot hand" will get the most carries in the second half and be fantasy relevant. I feel for Fields and da bears offense tonight. The Pats defense is finding it's groove. It'll be close in the first half,da bears defense will see to that,but Lord Vader will command his captains to keep pounding the rock and it'll wear down da bears D in the second half. Fields gets confused,Pats D forces multiple turnovers...

New England- 31
Chicago- 6
The Jones / Zappe situation has been chronicled ad nauseum this week. The consensus of beat reporters settled on if Jones starts, he will stay in the game and will retain his starting job. Most local talking heads feel pulling Jones would send a terrible message and create a huge distraction. Teams don't generally go back and forth with QBs, and as the saying goes, if you have two starting QB then you really have none.
Beat writers can speculate and that's fine. If any of them have covered Sir Bill long enough they should know he will do what he feels gives his team the best chance to win,if a player,any player, is not getting the job done to HIS satisfaction,Vader will replace him. For a series,a quarter,a game,whatever.
I think that's a little overstated. BB will do that on occasion to prove a point, but rarely in an actual game. He sent Randy Moss home for being late to practice in a snowstorm. He blasted Brady in front of the entire team relentlessly after a playoff win. He benched Jonas Gray after he was lackadaisical about practice. He benched Butler for the Super Bowl (that one still gets a lot of debate). With Butler, he didn't have Butler practice with the starting defense for the two weeks to the SB . . . he didn't wake up on game day and decide to bench him.

But he generally hasn't prepped one QB with the majority of first team reps and then started a QB that didn't practice much with the first team that week. Sure, it's not like he was going to bench Brady, but that seems like a pretty wild gamble to keep up subterfuge and disguise his intentions.
 

Anarchy99

Footballguy
Maybe it's the ultimate Monday Night sucker bet but NE by double digits seems about right. I don't think Fields suddenly figures things out against a BB defense.
Rookie QBs playing against BB defenses the first time have been anywhere from bad to terrible. The only thing Fields has going for him is NE sometimes has trouble containing running / mobile QBs. Sometimes they can get a lot of running yards or be mobile enough to keep plays alive to find someone open and extend drives. That being said, I think the NE offense is hitting their stride and the Bears offense looks like a mess right now. Not a good combination.
Fields isn't a Rookie but you're on to something and I agree with the rest of it
I meant to specify "young QB facing NE for the first time." In general, they haven't done very well (the cut-off point for the stats I saw was QBs under 25 years old . . . rookies or otherwise).
 

SeniorVBDStudent

Footballguy
I had this game circled as an easy DFS showdown given how the points will be concentrated. Now we have RS/Harris uncertainty and Jones/Zappe uncertainty.
And Bears RB uncertainty.
Relative to a "normal game" for DFS showdown purposes, you can ignore the Bears kicker, defense, qb and wrs and only have to decide if you want to allow for 0,1, or 2 rushing tds and how you want that split between montgomery and herbert. Fairly confident that the bears will score 0, 3, 6, 7, 10 or 13 tonight, probably a Montgomery rushing TD and one field goal.

On the Pats side, DFS success is just trying to determine if the QB, lead RB or kicker should be in the captain's chair, an exercise made more complex by having qb and rb uncertainty. I feel like most probable outcomes are 1 pass td, 1 rush td and 3 field goals, plus or minus an additional rush td / fg swap.

The probability of combines score exceeding 40 seems low....but any given monday, blah blah blah
 

FairWarning

Footballguy
I had this game circled as an easy DFS showdown given how the points will be concentrated. Now we have RS/Harris uncertainty and Jones/Zappe uncertainty.
And Bears RB uncertainty.
Relative to a "normal game" for DFS showdown purposes, you can ignore the Bears kicker, defense, qb and wrs and only have to decide if you want to allow for 0,1, or 2 rushing tds and how you want that split between montgomery and herbert. Fairly confident that the bears will score 0, 3, 6, 7, 10 or 13 tonight, probably a Montgomery rushing TD and one field goal.

On the Pats side, DFS success is just trying to determine if the QB, lead RB or kicker should be in the captain's chair, an exercise made more complex by having qb and rb uncertainty. I feel like most probable outcomes are 1 pass td, 1 rush td and 3 field goals, plus or minus an additional rush td / fg swap.

The probability of combines score exceeding 40 seems low....but any given monday, blah blah blah
If you think the bears will get blown out, then you want Montgomery, Mooney, Fields only. I would look at something like both NE RBs, their D, K, and a bear along with Fields for a captains showdown. I’ve won one before and the key is to differentiate your lineup and hope to get a competitive underdog.
 

SeniorVBDStudent

Footballguy
would like to see 3 TDs for the pats to reflect "progress". 1 TD and 5 field goals for the win would not be a positive indicator for progress.
 

Ministry of Pain

Footballguy
IDK if anyone posted this but Obama-Bill Burr-Vince Vaughn are the guests on the Manning tonight, that's a pretty interesting and diverse group I would say.

Should be worth a listen
 

Ministry of Pain

Footballguy
what am i looking at here? fog, rain, or fireworks?
And this brings up a good point

This kind of smoke inside the stadium cannot be allowed, they should literally have the players stay in the locker room and get big air pushers/fans and blow it out
It could be fog, it's overcast but it doesn't seem like fog, not much wind in New England tonight
 

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