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**MNF Lions at 49ers** (+3.5, 50.5) 8:15 (2 Viewers)

BobbyLayne

Footballguy
@FBG Moderator @Joe Bryant

  • If the Vikings lose their 4:25pm home game - vs a 3rd place team they’ve already beaten - the Lions can clinch the NFC North for the second straight season. Back to back division titles would be another franchise first in a season full of them. A Detroit win would also clinch the #1 seed for the 1st time in the Super Bowl era.
  • If the Vikings win Sunday, Week 18 is for the division title and the top seed, and the MNF outcome has no impact because if both teams finish 1-1 the Lions hold the tiebreaker.
  • Put another way, if the. Vikings win out, they’re the #1 seed. If the Lions win out, they would be the #1 seed.

    (it’s possible for Minnesota to tumble to the 6th seed by losing out if Green Bay beats the Bears next week.)

*I think - is that correct (excluding ties)?*

For FF managers in their Championship Week, Dan Campbell had this to say about how those scenarios affect their preparation:

“Yeah, I’ll make this easy for everybody that way all the critics can jump out and start attacking, but that way you don’t have to debate them anymore," Campbell said. "We’re bringing everything that we have to this game, and we are playing, and I don’t care what it looks like, and where it’s at or who’s this, who’s that, we’re going out to play and win this game out on the west coast. So, there you go.”



Well this not the game the schedule makers were hoping for, but the 49ers still have talented remnants and a lot of pride.

On deck: While Lions have managed to survive injuries, the 49ers have been undone by them


Allen Park — No one around these parts will soon forget what happened the last time the Detroit Lions faced the San Francisco 49ers.

With a trip to the Super Bowl on the line last January, the visiting Lions jumped out to a 17-point lead at the half, before the dream came undone. The typically sure-handed Josh Reynolds dropped a would-be fourth-down conversion. Two snaps later, a deep ball ricocheted off the helmet of cornerback Kindle Vildor into the waiting hands of 49ers receiver Brandon Aiyuk for a 51-yard gain that sparked a long touchdown drive. And on the first play of Detroit's ensuing possession, running back Jahmyr Gibbs lost a fumble.

A little less than 12 minutes into the third quarter, Detroit’s lead was gone and never recovered. They would ultimately drop the heartbreaking decision, 34-31.

Those 49ers were the NFC’s best team, not just that day, but that season. They were the conference’s No. 1 seed, clinching home-field advantage through the Super Bowl in a primetime matchup the week before the regular season finale.

It’s interesting how the tables have turned in 11 months. On Monday, the Lions return as visitors for a primetime game with the potential to secure the NFC’s top seed, pending the result of Green Bay and Minnesota a day earlier.

The 49ers, meanwhile, are free to start making vacation plans after being officially eliminated from postseason contention last week.

The biggest difference between the franchise arcs this season has been how each has navigated adversity. It’s an indisputable fact the Lions have been impacted by injuries more than any other NFL team, but if there was a silver medal, the 49ers would be a leading contender.

Regardless, only one team has managed to plow forward, undeterred, through their mounting losses.

San Francisco’s first big blow came before the start of the season, when a nagging Achilles issue sidelined running back Christian McCaffrey for two months.

The team managed to keep its head above water while the league’s reigning Offensive Player of the Year recovered, going 4-4 without him, but an ACL tear to the team’s leading receiver from a year ago, Brandon Aiyuk, followed by a second, season-ending injury for McCaffrey, has sent the team spiraling to five losses in their past six games.

There have been other injuries along the way.

The 49ers’ backfield has taken additional lumps. Backup Elijah Mitchell’s season ended before it started, landing on injured reserve coming out of training camp. And productive McCaffrey replacement, Jordan Mason, is on injured reserve with a high ankle sprain.

Pro Bowl defensive tackle Javon Hargrave (triceps), starting guard Jon Feliciano (knee) and cornerback Ambry Thomas (forearm) are some of the other mainstays done for the year, with key contributors, such as offensive tackle Trent Williams, linebacker Dre Greenlaw, safety Talanoa Hufanga and rookie receiver Ricky Pearsall, all missing multiple games.

Beyond the injuries, the 49ers have undergone some notable personnel changes since last year's NFC Championship, particularly at defensive tackle where they moved on from Arik Armstead and Javon Kinlaw this past offseason.

They replaced some of the interior snaps with former Brown Jordan Elliott. The 49ers also added two edge pieces, Leonard Floyd and Yetur Gross-Matos, via free agency. Floyd has been their best addition, starting 14 games and racking up 8.5 sacks.

In the draft, the team used its first-round pick on Pearsall, but his debut was delayed after he was shot in an attempted robbery during the offseason. Regardless, the 49ers have gotten quality contributions from its rookie class with second-round cornerback Renardo Green seeing more than 500 defensive snaps and third-round offensive lineman Dominick Puni playing nearly every right guard rep.

Even Isaac Guerendo, a fourth-round running back out of Louisville, was serviceable as the team’s fourth option in the backfield before he was bit by the injury bug, as well. His status for this weekend’s game is up in the air.

On top of the personnel adjustments, the 49ers made two significant alterations to the coaching staff, replacing defensive coordinator Steve Wilks with Nick Sorensen, a former NFL safety who served as the team's passing game coordinator in 2023. Additionally, former Chargers coach Brandon Staley was added as an assistant head coach to Kyle Shanahan.

Year to year, the defense has continued to be tough to move the ball against, but they've been awful in the red zone in 2024, contributing to a 33% increase in points against compared to last season.

Pair that decline with an offense scoring nearly seven points per game fewer in 2024 without McCaffrey and Aiyuk, and it's no wonder the 49ers have fallen so far after nearly winning the franchise's sixth Super Bowl a year ago.

Will have more to post when it's clear what the stakes are for tomorrow.
 
Lions should be able to score a plethora of points
Niners have a chance to keep up given The Lions injuries on defense
But I don't see the home team surpassing the visitors
So...

Detroit Lions- 30
San Francisco Forty Niners- 20
 
The state of the Detroit defense

Lions played Ifeatu Melifonwu 50 snaps in his season debut during last week's win over the Bears. He's not a starter but he was on a tear last year (8th best PFF grade amongst S), which was critical to their defense down the stretch.

With Amik Robertson moving to the outside, Iffy and Brian Branch are freed up to play either box safety or cover the slot. Both are exellcent blitzers, and with little in the way of a pass rush beyond Za'Darius Smith, just about the only way Detroit can generate pressure. Kerby Joseph is one of the best FS in the NFL. DJ Reader, Levi Onwuzurike and Josh Paschal are good versus the run but leave a lot to be desire when it comes to collapsing the pocket.

Rookie RCB Terrion Arnold has been something of a liability but he's cut down on his penalties and is improving each week. When he missed a game, we really got a sense of how well he is playing, because the drop off was ginormous.

ILB Jack Campbell gets some reinforcements this week with Jalen Reeves-Maybin returning, and Alex Anzalone (observed playing ping pong this week - I'd say the broken forearm is healing nicely) will be back for the playoffs.

Still, with Hutch out until the Super Bowl, they're going to lean on their offense to win games, much like last year (though TBF the back end is still not as bad as last year's sieve.)



Who is coming back - players returning from IR
  • Wide receiver/return man Kalif Raymond
    Eligible to return: Dec 30 at San Francisco
    Returned to practice on Wednesday but not expected to play Monday night, should be good to go Week 18 & the the playoffs.
  • Linebacker Jalen Reeves-Maybin
    Eligible to return: Dec 30 at San Francisco

    Just completed his second week of his 3 week IR-R practice window, could suit up tomorrow
  • Linebacker Alex Anzalone
    Eligible to return: Jan 5 vs Minnesota
    The starting ILB and defensive play caller will return next week or the first playoff game
  • Staring Left Cornerback Carlton Davis
    Eligible to return: Second game of the playoffs
    Broken jaw, out six weeks - team seems doubtful he will return this year but it's still possible.
  • Cornerback Ennis Rakestraw
    Eligible to return: Dec. 22 at Chicago
    Team has not started his practice window, no one seems sure when - two weeks ago it was "he's close, but not ready"
  • Running Back David Montgomery
    On the active roster
    The Lions chose not to place him on IR. He sought three medical opinions and is attempting to rehab. There's a chance he plays but Detroit generally errs on the side of caution and tries to protect the play[er] from themselves.
  • Defensive end Aidan Hutchinson
    Eligible to return since Nov. 17
    VERY LONG shot to play in Super Bowl LIX; right now he's walking and putting full pressure on his broken leg, working out immersed in water, but the atrophy to his leg is readily apparent. He seems confident if they get there, he'll be on the field, but I am dubious.
    "I keep telling all the boys when I see them in the facility, I'm like 'You guys just have to get there (to the Super Bowl), and I promise you I'm gonna be back. There is just no other option. That's just what it has to be." Belief is a powerful thing, we'll see.
  • Defensive end John Cominsky
    He was placed on IR-R (MCL) after TC but Coach Dan said it's just not where it needs to be, won't be getting him back.
  • Defensive tackle Alim McNeill
    Torn ACL, see you in TC big guy.
  • Cornerback Khalil Dorsey
    Broken leg, he's out for the duration.
  • Linebacker Derrick Barnes
    Eligible to return since Nov. 3
    Barnes was shelved by torn MCL and PCL ligaments in his right knee. I'd put his odds at being back longer than his rehab partner Hutch, but he's trying to get back. Unlikely.
  • Defensive end Marcus Davenport
    Eligible to return since Nov. 3
    Torn pectoral, another long shot hopeful to be back for the postseason but Coach Campbell said it's probably not happening.
  • DI Kyle Peko (pectoral), LB Malcolm Rodriguez (ACL), and DL Mekhi Wingo (knee) are all done done.
  • Another 5 (K, OT, WR, ED, G) suffered season ending injuries in Training Camp but should be back for 2025.
 
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Detroit Lions​

PlayerPositionInjuryThursdayFridaySaturdayGame status
David MontgomeryRBkneeNPNPNPout
Kalif RaymondWRfootFPFPFPout
Jalen Reeves-MaybinLBneckFPFPFPquestionable
Terrion ArnoldCBillnessNPLPFP
Graham GlasgowGkneeFPFPFP

San Francisco 49ers

Injury report

PlayerPositionInjuryThuFriSatGame Status
Aaron BanksOLKneeDNPDNPDNPOUT
Robert Beal Jr.DLAnkleDNPDNPDNPOUT
Spencer BurfordOLCalfDNPDNPDNPOUT
Dre GreenlawLBCalfDNPDNPDNPOUT
Ji'Ayir BrownSAnkleLPLPDNPQUESTIONABLE
Leonard FloydDLShoulderLPLPFP(-)
Isaac GuerendoRBFoot, HamstringLPLPFP(-)
Colton McKivitzOLKneeLPDNPDNPQUESTIONABLE
Tatum BethuneLBKneeFPFPFPQUESTIONABLE
Nick BosaDLHip, ObliqueFPFPFP(-)
Jordan ElliottDLKneeFPFPFP(-)
Talanoa HufangaSWristFPFPFP(-)
Dee WintersLBChestFPFPFP(-)
Kyle JuszczykFBIllnessDNPFP(-)
Charvarius WardCBNot injury Related - Personal MatterDNPQUESTIONABLE
 
Campbell talks a big game and I love his bravado as a coach. Clearly the team responds to his personality. But unless I’m missing something it’d be a whole lot smarter to rest his starters rather than have them play for the division and the 1 overall seed on a short week.
 
This is the 49ers Super Bowl, so I think Vegas is right in having a closer spread than their records suggest there should be.

I think the way to attack SF is to dink and dunk, which likely means Amon-Ra has a nice game, and I think Gibbs could see a high amount of receptions.

For SF, I think the Lions secondary has some major issues, and Purdy SHOULD be able to pick them apart. Should because that's been the case a lot this year and hasn't happened as much as it should have. I do think Kittle especially should be open a lot, as he'll likely see a fair share of Ben Niemann in coverage. I also think Deebo is auditioning for his next team, so he'll be extra motivated, and Jennings vs Arnold could be a problem.

I'm gonna call for the upset, because why not, but truthfully, I think its either SF wins a close game, or the Lions win big. Just depends on if the 49ers are checked out or not.

49ers-28
Lions-21
 
I mean revenge is great and all but getting a week of rest for a banged up team before they play for massive stakes seems more important.
 
Campbell talks a big game and I love his bravado as a coach. Clearly the team responds to his personality. But unless I’m missing something it’d be a whole lot smarter to rest his starters rather than have them play for the division and the 1 overall seed on a short week.

I’m genuinely curious if you spent a decade playing in the NFL?

Because everyone who ever has says you cannot just turn it off and turn it back on like it’s a spigot. Maybe in Madden, but not IRL.

You go out and compete.
 
Knowing Campbell’s attitude, I imagine he will pour it on the 49ers as payback for the NFCCG last year. Kinda like they did against DAL this year.

I take him and players at their word. It’s a big game because it’s the next one on the schedule. 24-7 will always hurt. There’s no regular season outcome that is going to heal that, MNF is in no way comparable to the finality of losing in the playoffs.

From a few days ago…

Eyes forward

It’s easy to look at Monday’s matchup with San Francisco through a lens of redemption, tied to last year’s heartbreaking loss in the NFC Championship. Regardless, the Lions are trying not to lean into that narrative.

“It's difficult at times, you know that, but it's been the windshield mentality vs. the rearview mirror,” Scottie Montgomery said. “We're really trying to focus on what we have going forward. This is a different and they're a different team. That's where we are right now. We're really focused on this year, 2024, and trying to play as well as we possibly can against the team.”

Campbell said getting beyond vengeance is a sign of the franchise’s maturity.

“I’ve mentioned every year, you kind of learn something about winning and losing, and when you take an L like we did last year, you learn from that,” Campbell said. “There were a number of things we did wrong and a number of things they did right, and I think you understand how the game can go and where it can swing and just about keeping your composure and making the most of any rep that comes because the one that happened in the second quarter could change the game.

“…I think that experience, as difficult as it was, served us well moving forward into this year,” Campbell said. “And it’s like anything else, you just don’t like to lose. So you’ve got an opportunity with a team that got the best of you, and so you just want to go out and find a way to get a win.”

As Montgomery notes, these are different teams, and in 2024, they’re heading in different directions. The Lions currently hold pole position in the NFC with the opportunity to clinch the No. 1 seed [next week]. The 49ers, meanwhile, have been eliminated from postseason contention. Still, the Lions are wary of an opponent that ranks top-10 in yardage on offense and No. 2 in yards allowed on defense, highlighting their sustained competitiveness.

“They’ve got plenty,” Campbell said after rattling off many of the opponent’s top players, “and with the scheme they run, the coaching, I mean, this is not going to be an easy task whatsoever. Our guys understand that. We’re going to have to play our best ball to go out there and get a win.”

Goff and St Brown have echoed that, repeatedly, throughout the week. Vengeance is not where their head is at right now. Bigger fish to fry then worrying about rubbing a 6-9 team’s nose in it.
 
Knowing Campbell’s attitude, I imagine he will pour it on the 49ers as payback for the NFCCG last year. Kinda like they did against DAL this year.

I take him and players at their word. It’s a big game because it’s the next one on the schedule. 24-7 will always hurt. There’s no regular season outcome that is going to heal that, MNF is in no way comparable to the finality of losing in the playoffs.

From a few days ago…

Eyes forward

It’s easy to look at Monday’s matchup with San Francisco through a lens of redemption, tied to last year’s heartbreaking loss in the NFC Championship. Regardless, the Lions are trying not to lean into that narrative.

“It's difficult at times, you know that, but it's been the windshield mentality vs. the rearview mirror,” Scottie Montgomery said. “We're really trying to focus on what we have going forward. This is a different and they're a different team. That's where we are right now. We're really focused on this year, 2024, and trying to play as well as we possibly can against the team.”

Campbell said getting beyond vengeance is a sign of the franchise’s maturity.

“I’ve mentioned every year, you kind of learn something about winning and losing, and when you take an L like we did last year, you learn from that,” Campbell said. “There were a number of things we did wrong and a number of things they did right, and I think you understand how the game can go and where it can swing and just about keeping your composure and making the most of any rep that comes because the one that happened in the second quarter could change the game.

“…I think that experience, as difficult as it was, served us well moving forward into this year,” Campbell said. “And it’s like anything else, you just don’t like to lose. So you’ve got an opportunity with a team that got the best of you, and so you just want to go out and find a way to get a win.”

As Montgomery notes, these are different teams, and in 2024, they’re heading in different directions. The Lions currently hold pole position in the NFC with the opportunity to clinch the No. 1 seed [next week]. The 49ers, meanwhile, have been eliminated from postseason contention. Still, the Lions are wary of an opponent that ranks top-10 in yardage on offense and No. 2 in yards allowed on defense, highlighting their sustained competitiveness.

“They’ve got plenty,” Campbell said after rattling off many of the opponent’s top players, “and with the scheme they run, the coaching, I mean, this is not going to be an easy task whatsoever. Our guys understand that. We’re going to have to play our best ball to go out there and get a win.”

Goff and St Brown have echoed that, repeatedly, throughout the week. Vengeance is not where their head is at right now. Bigger fish to fry then worrying about rubbing a 6-9 team’s nose in it.
Point taken. But we both know, there’s a public narrative and a personal narrative.

They’re gonna play focusing on winning the game. But there’ll be a sweet sense of payback if they can make it sting for the 49ers.
 
Knowing Campbell’s attitude, I imagine he will pour it on the 49ers as payback for the NFCCG last year. Kinda like they did against DAL this year.

I take him and players at their word. It’s a big game because it’s the next one on the schedule. 24-7 will always hurt. There’s no regular season outcome that is going to heal that, MNF is in no way comparable to the finality of losing in the playoffs.

From a few days ago…

Eyes forward

It’s easy to look at Monday’s matchup with San Francisco through a lens of redemption, tied to last year’s heartbreaking loss in the NFC Championship. Regardless, the Lions are trying not to lean into that narrative.

“It's difficult at times, you know that, but it's been the windshield mentality vs. the rearview mirror,” Scottie Montgomery said. “We're really trying to focus on what we have going forward. This is a different and they're a different team. That's where we are right now. We're really focused on this year, 2024, and trying to play as well as we possibly can against the team.”

Campbell said getting beyond vengeance is a sign of the franchise’s maturity.

“I’ve mentioned every year, you kind of learn something about winning and losing, and when you take an L like we did last year, you learn from that,” Campbell said. “There were a number of things we did wrong and a number of things they did right, and I think you understand how the game can go and where it can swing and just about keeping your composure and making the most of any rep that comes because the one that happened in the second quarter could change the game.

“…I think that experience, as difficult as it was, served us well moving forward into this year,” Campbell said. “And it’s like anything else, you just don’t like to lose. So you’ve got an opportunity with a team that got the best of you, and so you just want to go out and find a way to get a win.”

As Montgomery notes, these are different teams, and in 2024, they’re heading in different directions. The Lions currently hold pole position in the NFC with the opportunity to clinch the No. 1 seed [next week]. The 49ers, meanwhile, have been eliminated from postseason contention. Still, the Lions are wary of an opponent that ranks top-10 in yardage on offense and No. 2 in yards allowed on defense, highlighting their sustained competitiveness.

“They’ve got plenty,” Campbell said after rattling off many of the opponent’s top players, “and with the scheme they run, the coaching, I mean, this is not going to be an easy task whatsoever. Our guys understand that. We’re going to have to play our best ball to go out there and get a win.”

Goff and St Brown have echoed that, repeatedly, throughout the week. Vengeance is not where their head is at right now. Bigger fish to fry then worrying about rubbing a 6-9 team’s nose in it.
Point taken. But we both know, there’s a public narrative and a personal narrative.

They’re gonna play focusing on winning the game. But there’ll be a sweet sense of payback if they can make it sting for the 49ers.

:shrug:

Probably some truth there, at least in terms of don't give other teams motivation by being disrespectful in public comments.

The Lions [are] as transparent as any sports team I have ever seen. This week Campbell gave the reporters intricate details of how they gather information from the scouts to prepare for a game; what information comes in, what they glean from that, and then how they match that to their film study. Whatever Campbell says from the podium wrt injuries mirrors what ends up happening ("it doesn't look good" "he's headed in the right direction" "he's not going to run around today but should be good by Sunday"). The beat writers ask about a guy getting cut the same day he got a DUI, "well we had to make a move to free up a roster spot for IR-Return, so that made the decision easier to make."

Trust me, they do things differently over at Allen Park. Guys come from other teams and it's the first thing they notice.

The entire organization is transparent. In practices, they're incredibly detail oriented; stuff gets called out immediately, corrected, and they move on.

We had twelve years of the world revolving around one superstar, and now it's like there are no stars, just in terms of how people are treated. Everyone has the same 3 rules: be on time, respect the game, don't disrespect your teammates. Mistakes are OK, that is correctable, as long as the effort is there. If the effort isn't there, you'll be on the street. When assistant coaches don't mesh - there are a few turnovers each year - they do that stuff internally, you never show anyone up. But guys who don't fit the culture get replaced. I think only once has it been in-season (Aubrey Plesant, 2022, now back with the Rams.)

If they viewed this as a revenge game they would not hide that. The public narrative is generally exactly what is going on. I know, it's not something we are used to from NFL teams, coaches or players. But other than not revealing game plans/code words (looking at you, Jah lol), they're free to speak their mind. The Dallas game was more of an FU to the league and officials than the Cowboys (they lined up OL at WR 3-4 times.)
 
Campbell talks a big game and I love his bravado as a coach. Clearly the team responds to his personality. But unless I’m missing something it’d be a whole lot smarter to rest his starters rather than have them play for the division and the 1 overall seed on a short week.

I’m genuinely curious if you spent a decade playing in the NFL?

Because everyone who ever has says you cannot just turn it off and turn it back on like it’s a spigot. Maybe in Madden, but not IRL.

You go out and compete.
Plenty of NFL head coaches decide to rest players when they can late in the season regardless of whether they’ve played a decade in the league. Bye weeks are valuable I don’t think anyone disputes that right? The opportunity to have essentially a second bye this late in the season is a pretty big deal. I think it would be foolish to pass it up. It’s clear you see red when someone criticizes your coach so I’ll reiterate I like him a lot. I just think it’s a big mistake to not take advantage of the opportunity here.
 
Campbell talks a big game and I love his bravado as a coach. Clearly the team responds to his personality. But unless I’m missing something it’d be a whole lot smarter to rest his starters rather than have them play for the division and the 1 overall seed on a short week.

I’m genuinely curious if you spent a decade playing in the NFL?

Because everyone who ever has says you cannot just turn it off and turn it back on like it’s a spigot. Maybe in Madden, but not IRL.

You go out and compete.
Plenty of NFL head coaches decide to rest players when they can late in the season regardless of whether they’ve played a decade in the league. Bye weeks are valuable I don’t think anyone disputes that right? The opportunity to have essentially a second bye this late in the season is a pretty big deal. I think it would be foolish to pass it up. It’s clear you see red when someone criticizes your coach so I’ll reiterate I like him a lot. I just think it’s a big mistake to not take advantage of the opportunity here.

I'm just trying to help people understand how they process things. NBD if it doesn't land.
 
Campbell talks a big game and I love his bravado as a coach. Clearly the team responds to his personality. But unless I’m missing something it’d be a whole lot smarter to rest his starters rather than have them play for the division and the 1 overall seed on a short week.

I’m genuinely curious if you spent a decade playing in the NFL?

Because everyone who ever has says you cannot just turn it off and turn it back on like it’s a spigot. Maybe in Madden, but not IRL.

You go out and compete.
Plenty of NFL head coaches decide to rest players when they can late in the season regardless of whether they’ve played a decade in the league. Bye weeks are valuable I don’t think anyone disputes that right? The opportunity to have essentially a second bye this late in the season is a pretty big deal. I think it would be foolish to pass it up. It’s clear you see red when someone criticizes your coach so I’ll reiterate I like him a lot. I just think it’s a big mistake to not take advantage of the opportunity here.

I'm just trying to help people understand how they process things. NBD if it doesn't land.
How he processes things, not “they” all encompassing. Again plenty of coaches and players with a decade+ of experience choose to rest when the opportunity is there.
 
Campbell talks a big game and I love his bravado as a coach. Clearly the team responds to his personality. But unless I’m missing something it’d be a whole lot smarter to rest his starters rather than have them play for the division and the 1 overall seed on a short week.

I’m genuinely curious if you spent a decade playing in the NFL?

Because everyone who ever has says you cannot just turn it off and turn it back on like it’s a spigot. Maybe in Madden, but not IRL.

You go out and compete.
Plenty of NFL head coaches decide to rest players when they can late in the season regardless of whether they’ve played a decade in the league. Bye weeks are valuable I don’t think anyone disputes that right? The opportunity to have essentially a second bye this late in the season is a pretty big deal. I think it would be foolish to pass it up. It’s clear you see red when someone criticizes your coach so I’ll reiterate I like him a lot. I just think it’s a big mistake to not take advantage of the opportunity here.

I'm just trying to help people understand how they process things. NBD if it doesn't land.
How he processes things, not “they” all encompassing. Again plenty of coaches and players with a decade+ of experience choose to rest when the opportunity is there.

You think the Lions are a 6’5” 265 monolith? Cool, cool, think that’ll wrap up the discussion.

Not sure why what anyone else does is relevant. They have a particular way of doing things, and they are pretty transparent about their intentions. Honestly all I’m trying to accomplish is to convey that. I have zero interest in whether you or anyone else approves of their process.
 
Meaningless game for DET... any worries that they rest starters for next week's showdown vs MIN?
 
49ers OL
  • Left tackle Trent Williams, an 11-time Pro Bowler, is on injured reserve with an ankle injury. The Niners are 1-6 without Williams in the last two seasons.
  • Left guard Aaron Banks injured his knee in the 49ers’ Week 16 loss to the Dolphins and is also out for the season.
  • Right tackle Colton McKivitz missed Friday’s practice with a knee injury and it doesn’t look promising for the Monday night game.
  • Williams’ regular backup, Jaylon Moore, is also dealing with a quad injury and isn’t expected to play.
  • Spencer Burford would be the next man up, but he’s out too.
  • Another reserve, Ben Bartch, is also on injured reserve.
The only regular starters are center Jake Brendel and right guard Dominick Puni, a fourth-round rookie who has played quite well.

San Francisco’s tackles for the game against the Lions could very well be Charlie Heck and Austen Pleasants. They signed Heck off the Cardinals practice squad this week, while Pleasants had joined the 49ers practice squad earlier this month. Left guard will likely be Nick Zakelj, who has played 34 snaps in the last three years - including 18 last week.

Basically, three practice squad OL will be protecting Purdy & blocking for Guerendo & Taylor.

Shanahan said they had to simplify a lot of terminology to accommodate for the new guys.

They still have 3 healthy playmakers in Deebo, Kittle and Jennings - not completely hopeless.
 
Again plenty of coaches and players with a decade+ of experience choose to rest when the opportunity is there.
Can you name even one time where a team rested starters before an important regular season game? I guess it's possible but I've certainly never seen it.
 
@Zeppelin - it's no different than your average EV. Let off the go pedal and the regen kicks in. Stomp on the go pedal, instantaneous power.

That's exactly how human psychology and high level athletes operate. It's easy peasy.

If your team just follows what the X-Spurts on fantasy football forums say you should do, everything will be fine.
 
[Detroit Football Network]

What: Detroit Lions at San Francisco 49ers

When: Dec. 30, 8:15 p.m.

Where: Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, Calif.

How to watch: ESPN (Joe Buck/Troy Aikman/Lisa Salters

How to listen: 97.1-FM The Ticket in Metro Detroit or any number of network affiliates around the state.

Line: Lions -3.5

Injury report: Only running back David Montgomery (knee) has been ruled out for the contest. Linebacker Jalen Reeves-Maybin, who has been working his way back from a neck injury, is questionable.

Officiating assignment: Shawn Hochuli’s crew. Promoted to referee in 2018, this will be the ninth Lions game he’s worked in that capacity. Most recently, he officiated the team’s Week 12 victory over Indianapolis.

Hochuli’s crew is averaging 17.86 flags thrown per game, the second most in the NFL this season. They’ve thrown 20 or more flags in three of the past four weeks, including 29 in a game between the Bengals and Steelers earlier this month.

Last meeting: The teams met in last year’s NFC Championship. The Lions jumped out to a 24-7 lead, but coughed it up in the third quarter and ended up losing the contest, 34-31.



Three things worth watching

The 49ers offensive line is a mess.

The team finally shut down star left tackle Trent Williams, placing him on injured reserve this week. And Williams’ backup, Jaylon Moore (Western Michigan), also landed on IR with a quad injury he suffered last Sunday. Left guard Aaron Banks? You guessed it, ruled out with a knee injury. Those three join starting guard Jon Feliciano, who has been on the shelf all season.

Reserve interior lineman Spencer Burford. Surely the 2023 starter could help. Nope, he’s out, too. And the manure-dipped cherry on top is right tackle Colton McKivitz suffered a knee injury in practice that sidelined him Friday and Saturday. He's listed as questionable.

There’s a real opportunity for Detroit's defensive line to feast. It starts with slowing down a San Francisco run game that’s getting back rookie Isaac Guerendo. He's averaged an impressive 5.2 yards per carry in his debut season.

If the Lions can check that box, it would be nice to see the pass rush translate some of the pressure it has generated in recent weeks into sacks. They got to Bears rookie Caleb Williams five times on Thanksgiving, but have dropped opposing quarterbacks just four times in their past five games outside the holiday anomaly.

The Lions coaching staff has told us they’re looking forward, not backward.

When asked if Monday offered a chance to get closure after blowing a big halftime lead against the 49ers in last season’s NFC Championship, coach Dan Campbell said:

“I think we’re really more mature, I guess, would probably be the best way to say that. I’ve mentioned every year, you kind of learn something about winning and losing, and when you take an L like we did last year, you learn from that.”

OK, sure, but I’m skeptical. I saw what this team did to Dallas earlier in the year, righting what they felt was a wrong via a relentless show of force, going as far as to dial up a hook-and-ladder for offensive tackle Penei Sewell when the game was well in hand.

You can’t convince me they won’t be looking to put a little hot sauce on the call sheet this week, even if the game has zero impact on the standings for the Lions in their pursuit of the NFC’s top seed.

I'm calling for a direct snap on a punt to linebacker Ezekiel Turner — who was cut by the 49ers this offseason — and he'll throw it to gunner Kindle Vildor. You know why.

[BL: :lol: Justin is the best. He knows who pays the bils.]

Give me all of a potential Brian Branch vs. George Kittle matchup.

It’s not likely to be an exclusive matchup, obviously, but with the dynamic Detroit defender moving to the slot last week as part of a secondary shuffle, he figures to draw a healthy dose of the 49ers’ All-Pro tight end.

Branch has the coverage skills to hang with the Kittle man-to-man. Plus, the defender is impactful in the run game because of good instincts and a quick first step that gets him into the backfield. On the flip side, Kittle is a load to bring down in the open field, and he gets into your chest as a blocker, good luck.

All that said, if you’re a sucker for best-on-best battles like me, this is one to circle.
 
If Ben Johnson's call sheet doesn't include a Special that starts with Goff bouncing one off a Detroit player's face mask, what are they even doing?
 
I know the Detroit homers here are saying that Campbell will play his starters, but I'm down 5 in our PPR league with St. Brown yet to play for the championship. Just for reassurance of a nervous St. Brown owner, Campbell will play his starters tonight, right? RIGHT???
 
Sounds like the 49ers O line v the Lions D line is going to be a battle almost entirely played out by players that were not on these teams at the start of the season or indeed where almost on the street.

Due to relativity both lines will most likely end up looking much better than they actually are
 
I know the Detroit homers here are saying that Campbell will play his starters, but I'm down 5 in our PPR league with St. Brown yet to play for the championship. Just for reassurance of a nervous St. Brown owner, Campbell will play his starters tonight, right? RIGHT???
As far as the offense goes? Maybe Gibbs gets a lighter share of carries in an effort to save him for the future. If Jamo gets a big catch or two, maybe there's an emphasis on getting him to 1000 yards this week (he needs 110). Otherwise I simply can't expect any changes. Given the mentally of the team, I'm sure they approached this game as a "must win". Like Bobby, I simply can't see them abandoning that to intentionally start backups who wouldn't be (as) prepared.
 
I know the Detroit homers here are saying that Campbell will play his starters, but I'm down 5 in our PPR league with St. Brown yet to play for the championship. Just for reassurance of a nervous St. Brown owner, Campbell will play his starters tonight, right? RIGHT???

Naw, they’re calling up Tom Kennedy from the practice squad. Ben Johnson has about 15 plays on the Call Sheet which they’ve only repped with TK.

How many NFL players were All American in two sports? Tom Kennedy was. How many pro football players started their career as a pro lacrosse player? Tom Kennedy (Long Island guy, Bryant University) did.

Besides peppering him with targets, they’ll run a) a TK reverse, which will setup the coup de grace, b) a reverse with a pass option in which TK chucks it deep to Jamo.

Big play TK

from Farmingdale to Detroit

Book it
 
Again plenty of coaches and players with a decade+ of experience choose to rest when the opportunity is there.
Can you name even one time where a team rested starters before an important regular season game? I guess it's possible but I've certainly never seen it.
It has to be extremely rare for a team to have a massive game the last week of the season preceded by an entirely meaningless game the second to last week of the season. Throw in the fact that it’s a road game on a short week and I’m not sure these circumstances have happened before. Would love to hear if they have.

Logically why would a team treat it any differently than a meaningless week 18 game? Teams seem to often rest starters that final week if they can. Maybe Dan Campbell is different all gas no brake and but to act like other coaches/players don’t rest when they can and this is just some Madden/message board “X-purts” notion is kind of silly.
 
Meaningless game for DET... any worries that they rest starters for next week's showdown vs MIN?
Technically speaking, it's not a meanlessness game for Detroit. Win and either a win or tie next week gives them the #1 seed. Lose this one and a tie would go to the Vikings. Longshot scenario, but it still has to be considered in what could be a close game.
This is a good point. Didn’t think about a potential week 18 tie with Minny.
 
Campbell talks a big game and I love his bravado as a coach. Clearly the team responds to his personality. But unless I’m missing something it’d be a whole lot smarter to rest his starters rather than have them play for the division and the 1 overall seed on a short week.

I’m genuinely curious if you spent a decade playing in the NFL?

Because everyone who ever has says you cannot just turn it off and turn it back on like it’s a spigot. Maybe in Madden, but not IRL.

You go out and compete.
Plenty of NFL head coaches decide to rest players when they can late in the season regardless of whether they’ve played a decade in the league. Bye weeks are valuable I don’t think anyone disputes that right? The opportunity to have essentially a second bye this late in the season is a pretty big deal. I think it would be foolish to pass it up. It’s clear you see red when someone criticizes your coach so I’ll reiterate I like him a lot. I just think it’s a big mistake to not take advantage of the opportunity here.

I'm just trying to help people understand how they process things. NBD if it doesn't land.
How he processes things, not “they” all encompassing. Again plenty of coaches and players with a decade+ of experience choose to rest when the opportunity is there.

You think the Lions are a 6’5” 265 monolith? Cool, cool, think that’ll wrap up the discussion.

Not sure why what anyone else does is relevant. They have a particular way of doing things, and they are pretty transparent about their intentions. Honestly all I’m trying to accomplish is to convey that. I have zero interest in whether you or anyone else approves of their process.
No idea why you are trying to be condescending with every response. Some coaches would consider resting players here. Dan Campbell isn’t. That’s great! But you saying everyone who ever has competed in football for a decade knows you can’t just turn it off and on simply isn’t true. The vets on the Chiefs are supposedly going to turn it off this week and then for another week during their bye and turn it back on for the divisional round. The Ravens did the same last year.
 
I'm afraid this is one of those games where DC is overthinking things.
Luck has not been on their side. The game means nothing.

I am sitting everyone.

Not sure what will happen should one of Goff, ARSB, Gibbs, etc gets hurt in a game that doesn't matter.
 
Campbell talks a big game and I love his bravado as a coach. Clearly the team responds to his personality. But unless I’m missing something it’d be a whole lot smarter to rest his starters rather than have them play for the division and the 1 overall seed on a short week.

I’m genuinely curious if you spent a decade playing in the NFL?

Because everyone who ever has says you cannot just turn it off and turn it back on like it’s a spigot. Maybe in Madden, but not IRL.

You go out and compete.
Plenty of NFL head coaches decide to rest players when they can late in the season regardless of whether they’ve played a decade in the league. Bye weeks are valuable I don’t think anyone disputes that right? The opportunity to have essentially a second bye this late in the season is a pretty big deal. I think it would be foolish to pass it up. It’s clear you see red when someone criticizes your coach so I’ll reiterate I like him a lot. I just think it’s a big mistake to not take advantage of the opportunity here.

I'm just trying to help people understand how they process things. NBD if it doesn't land.
How he processes things, not “they” all encompassing. Again plenty of coaches and players with a decade+ of experience choose to rest when the opportunity is there.

You think the Lions are a 6’5” 265 monolith? Cool, cool, think that’ll wrap up the discussion.

Not sure why what anyone else does is relevant. They have a particular way of doing things, and they are pretty transparent about their intentions. Honestly all I’m trying to accomplish is to convey that. I have zero interest in whether you or anyone else approves of their process.
No idea why you are trying to be condescending with every response. Some coaches would consider resting players here. Dan Campbell isn’t. That’s great! But you saying everyone who ever has competed in football for a decade knows you can’t just turn it off and on simply isn’t true. The vets on the Chiefs are supposedly going to turn it off this week and then for another week during their bye and turn it back on for the divisional round. The Ravens did the same last year.

Not sure - nor do I care - why you feel that I am treating you with condescension. I don’t view making an affirmative statement is not condescension, but you do you.

Admittedly I do find it tedious to answer the same Qs being asked in this forum about the Lions & their view of load management literally every day. I should be more patient. The snarky stand alone comment above wasn’t aimed at you or anyone specifically. We’re just a couple guys talking ball, this isn’t personal.

I’m informed by listening to talking headed who never played the games vs hearing what guys who played a long time have to say.

While opinions vary, it’s been my experience guys like Florio (or name any other sports journalist) favor “doing the smart thing”. I don’t watch shouty shows & haven’t checked out anything on ESPN (other than live games) since ~ 2011, but the clips end up all over my feeds.

That view from smartest guy in the room X-spurts is in stark contrast to what players have to say on the topic. I’ll defer to guys that have lived it.

Tony Dungy, who back in the day pioneered the rest your starters at YE movement in the aughts, says emphatically you can’t rest guys when you still have something on the line.

You appear to be suggesting the Lions situation is the same as the Chiefs rn. They have clinched the 1 seed. The Ravens last year was after they clinched the 1 seed. Does that make sense to you? I’m not sure how else to interpret what you wrote but I must be misunderstanding your intent.
 
No one knows his team better than the head coach
Not us,not the talking heads,no one
Every coach is different
Every teams situation is unique to them
As a Giants fan I can remember Tom Coughlin playing his starters,except because of injury of course,when seeds were locked up
He expected his players to play and they did
His reasoning was to keep the team focused and sharp
Cambell has his reasons to play his starters
Hard to argue with his decision making so far
 
Again plenty of coaches and players with a decade+ of experience choose to rest when the opportunity is there.
Can you name even one time where a team rested starters before an important regular season game? I guess it's possible but I've certainly never seen it.
The cowboys did it with romo in 2011. But I think it had to do with another game that just finished.

Cowboys benched Romo after 1 drive after they found out that this game was meaningless and had to win the next week to make the playoffs. They did not win either game

 
Campbell talks a big game and I love his bravado as a coach. Clearly the team responds to his personality. But unless I’m missing something it’d be a whole lot smarter to rest his starters rather than have them play for the division and the 1 overall seed on a short week.

I’m genuinely curious if you spent a decade playing in the NFL?

Because everyone who ever has says you cannot just turn it off and turn it back on like it’s a spigot. Maybe in Madden, but not IRL.

You go out and compete.
Plenty of NFL head coaches decide to rest players when they can late in the season regardless of whether they’ve played a decade in the league. Bye weeks are valuable I don’t think anyone disputes that right? The opportunity to have essentially a second bye this late in the season is a pretty big deal. I think it would be foolish to pass it up. It’s clear you see red when someone criticizes your coach so I’ll reiterate I like him a lot. I just think it’s a big mistake to not take advantage of the opportunity here.

I'm just trying to help people understand how they process things. NBD if it doesn't land.
How he processes things, not “they” all encompassing. Again plenty of coaches and players with a decade+ of experience choose to rest when the opportunity is there.

You think the Lions are a 6’5” 265 monolith? Cool, cool, think that’ll wrap up the discussion.

Not sure why what anyone else does is relevant. They have a particular way of doing things, and they are pretty transparent about their intentions. Honestly all I’m trying to accomplish is to convey that. I have zero interest in whether you or anyone else approves of their process.
No idea why you are trying to be condescending with every response. Some coaches would consider resting players here. Dan Campbell isn’t. That’s great! But you saying everyone who ever has competed in football for a decade knows you can’t just turn it off and on simply isn’t true. The vets on the Chiefs are supposedly going to turn it off this week and then for another week during their bye and turn it back on for the divisional round. The Ravens did the same last year.

Not sure - nor do I care - why you feel that I am treating you with condescension. I don’t view making an affirmative statement is not condescension, but you do you.

Admittedly I do find it tedious to answer the same Qs being asked in this forum about the Lions & their view of load management literally every day. I should be more patient. The snarky stand alone comment above wasn’t aimed at you or anyone specifically. We’re just a couple guys talking ball, this isn’t personal.

I’m informed by listening to talking headed who never played the games vs hearing what guys who played a long time have to say.

While opinions vary, it’s been my experience guys like Florio (or name any other sports journalist) favor “doing the smart thing”. I don’t watch shouty shows & haven’t checked out anything on ESPN (other than live games) since ~ 2011, but the clips end up all over my feeds.

That view from smartest guy in the room X-spurts is in stark contrast to what players have to say on the topic. I’ll defer to guys that have lived it.

Tony Dungy, who back in the day pioneered the rest your starters at YE movement in the aughts, says emphatically you can’t rest guys when you still have something on the line.

You appear to be suggesting the Lions situation is the same as the Chiefs rn. They have clinched the 1 seed. The Ravens last year was after they clinched the 1 seed. Does that make sense to you? I’m not sure how else to interpret what you wrote but I must be misunderstanding your intent.
Yes those teams rested starters because the week 18 game was meaningless to clinching the 1 seed. The week 17 game for the Lions is meaningless for clinching the 1 seed as well (or at least we thought so when we started this discussion- VikingFrog pointed out the week 18 tie scenario later on).
If we’re going to split hairs it’s probably more similar to a team playing a meaningless week 18 game before having to play a wild card round playoff game the next week. Once again that scenario routinely results in teams resting players. And once again I’m not criticizing Campbell. I just thoroughly reject that notion that it’s a Madden or message board poster thing to think that resting players should be a consideration in these scenarios.
 
Again plenty of coaches and players with a decade+ of experience choose to rest when the opportunity is there.
Can you name even one time where a team rested starters before an important regular season game? I guess it's possible but I've certainly never seen it.
The cowboys did it with romo in 2011. But I think it had to do with another game that just finished.

Cowboys benched Romo after 1 drive after they found out that this game was meaningless and had to win the next week to make the playoffs. They did not win either game

Are we sure this wasn’t a Madden game or perhaps a random message board poster coached it?
 
Campbell talks a big game and I love his bravado as a coach. Clearly the team responds to his personality. But unless I’m missing something it’d be a whole lot smarter to rest his starters rather than have them play for the division and the 1 overall seed on a short week.

I’m genuinely curious if you spent a decade playing in the NFL?

Because everyone who ever has says you cannot just turn it off and turn it back on like it’s a spigot. Maybe in Madden, but not IRL.

You go out and compete.
Plenty of NFL head coaches decide to rest players when they can late in the season regardless of whether they’ve played a decade in the league. Bye weeks are valuable I don’t think anyone disputes that right? The opportunity to have essentially a second bye this late in the season is a pretty big deal. I think it would be foolish to pass it up. It’s clear you see red when someone criticizes your coach so I’ll reiterate I like him a lot. I just think it’s a big mistake to not take advantage of the opportunity here.

I'm just trying to help people understand how they process things. NBD if it doesn't land.
How he processes things, not “they” all encompassing. Again plenty of coaches and players with a decade+ of experience choose to rest when the opportunity is there.

You think the Lions are a 6’5” 265 monolith? Cool, cool, think that’ll wrap up the discussion.

Not sure why what anyone else does is relevant. They have a particular way of doing things, and they are pretty transparent about their intentions. Honestly all I’m trying to accomplish is to convey that. I have zero interest in whether you or anyone else approves of their process.
No idea why you are trying to be condescending with every response. Some coaches would consider resting players here. Dan Campbell isn’t. That’s great! But you saying everyone who ever has competed in football for a decade knows you can’t just turn it off and on simply isn’t true. The vets on the Chiefs are supposedly going to turn it off this week and then for another week during their bye and turn it back on for the divisional round. The Ravens did the same last year.

Not sure - nor do I care - why you feel that I am treating you with condescension. I don’t view making an affirmative statement is not condescension, but you do you.

Admittedly I do find it tedious to answer the same Qs being asked in this forum about the Lions & their view of load management literally every day. I should be more patient. The snarky stand alone comment above wasn’t aimed at you or anyone specifically. We’re just a couple guys talking ball, this isn’t personal.

I’m informed by listening to talking headed who never played the games vs hearing what guys who played a long time have to say.

While opinions vary, it’s been my experience guys like Florio (or name any other sports journalist) favor “doing the smart thing”. I don’t watch shouty shows & haven’t checked out anything on ESPN (other than live games) since ~ 2011, but the clips end up all over my feeds.

That view from smartest guy in the room X-spurts is in stark contrast to what players have to say on the topic. I’ll defer to guys that have lived it.

Tony Dungy, who back in the day pioneered the rest your starters at YE movement in the aughts, says emphatically you can’t rest guys when you still have something on the line.

You appear to be suggesting the Lions situation is the same as the Chiefs rn. They have clinched the 1 seed. The Ravens last year was after they clinched the 1 seed. Does that make sense to you? I’m not sure how else to interpret what you wrote but I must be misunderstanding your intent.
Yes those teams rested starters because the week 18 game was meaningless to clinching the 1 seed. The week 17 game for the Lions is meaningless for clinching the 1 seed as well (or at least we thought so when we started this discussion- VikingFrog pointed out the week 18 tie scenario later on).
If we’re going to split hairs it’s probably more similar to a team playing a meaningless week 18 game before having to play a wild card round playoff game the next week. Once again that scenario routinely results in teams resting players. And once again I’m not criticizing Campbell. I just thoroughly reject that notion that it’s a Madden or message board poster thing to think that resting players should be a consideration in these scenarios.

If they don’t go hard this week, do you think it is an automatic thing they’ll be able to turn it back on next week? How would a coach staff or an athlete ensure they could accomplish that? What would that look like?

All of this strikes me as a very odd view of how human psychology operates.

Why on earth would you want to optimize level of effort / load management? For people.

IME people are not light switches we can just flip in or off.
 
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Campbell talks a big game and I love his bravado as a coach. Clearly the team responds to his personality. But unless I’m missing something it’d be a whole lot smarter to rest his starters rather than have them play for the division and the 1 overall seed on a short week.

I’m genuinely curious if you spent a decade playing in the NFL?

Because everyone who ever has says you cannot just turn it off and turn it back on like it’s a spigot. Maybe in Madden, but not IRL.

You go out and compete.
Plenty of NFL head coaches decide to rest players when they can late in the season regardless of whether they’ve played a decade in the league. Bye weeks are valuable I don’t think anyone disputes that right? The opportunity to have essentially a second bye this late in the season is a pretty big deal. I think it would be foolish to pass it up. It’s clear you see red when someone criticizes your coach so I’ll reiterate I like him a lot. I just think it’s a big mistake to not take advantage of the opportunity here.

I'm just trying to help people understand how they process things. NBD if it doesn't land.
How he processes things, not “they” all encompassing. Again plenty of coaches and players with a decade+ of experience choose to rest when the opportunity is there.

You think the Lions are a 6’5” 265 monolith? Cool, cool, think that’ll wrap up the discussion.

Not sure why what anyone else does is relevant. They have a particular way of doing things, and they are pretty transparent about their intentions. Honestly all I’m trying to accomplish is to convey that. I have zero interest in whether you or anyone else approves of their process.
No idea why you are trying to be condescending with every response. Some coaches would consider resting players here. Dan Campbell isn’t. That’s great! But you saying everyone who ever has competed in football for a decade knows you can’t just turn it off and on simply isn’t true. The vets on the Chiefs are supposedly going to turn it off this week and then for another week during their bye and turn it back on for the divisional round. The Ravens did the same last year.

Not sure - nor do I care - why you feel that I am treating you with condescension. I don’t view making an affirmative statement is not condescension, but you do you.

Admittedly I do find it tedious to answer the same Qs being asked in this forum about the Lions & their view of load management literally every day. I should be more patient. The snarky stand alone comment above wasn’t aimed at you or anyone specifically. We’re just a couple guys talking ball, this isn’t personal.

I’m informed by listening to talking headed who never played the games vs hearing what guys who played a long time have to say.

While opinions vary, it’s been my experience guys like Florio (or name any other sports journalist) favor “doing the smart thing”. I don’t watch shouty shows & haven’t checked out anything on ESPN (other than live games) since ~ 2011, but the clips end up all over my feeds.

That view from smartest guy in the room X-spurts is in stark contrast to what players have to say on the topic. I’ll defer to guys that have lived it.

Tony Dungy, who back in the day pioneered the rest your starters at YE movement in the aughts, says emphatically you can’t rest guys when you still have something on the line.

You appear to be suggesting the Lions situation is the same as the Chiefs rn. They have clinched the 1 seed. The Ravens last year was after they clinched the 1 seed. Does that make sense to you? I’m not sure how else to interpret what you wrote but I must be misunderstanding your intent.
Yes those teams rested starters because the week 18 game was meaningless to clinching the 1 seed. The week 17 game for the Lions is meaningless for clinching the 1 seed as well (or at least we thought so when we started this discussion- VikingFrog pointed out the week 18 tie scenario later on).
If we’re going to split hairs it’s probably more similar to a team playing a meaningless week 18 game before having to play a wild card round playoff game the next week. Once again that scenario routinely results in teams resting players. And once again I’m not criticizing Campbell. I just thoroughly reject that notion that it’s a Madden or message board poster thing to think that resting players should be a consideration in these scenarios.

If they don’t go hard this week, do you think it is an automatic thing they’ll be able to turn it back on next week? How would a coach staff or an athlete accomplish that?

Why on earth would you want to optimize level of effort / load management?

All of this strikes me as a very odd view of how human psychology operates.
The same way every team that rests starters the final week before their playoff game accomplishes it? The idea of resting players for meaningless games with a meaningful game the following week isn’t a novel concept it’s just that it’s usually final week/playoff round 1 rather than week 17/week 18.
 

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