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I don't like Collie as much since he has to compete with Garcon AND A. Gonzalez when he comes back. I also like Knox a lot. I'd probably list them Knox MassJones CollieGarcon
The franchise can't seem to get out of it's own way, but way too early to speculate on that. Things move pretty quickly.As for Massaquoi, if he can get a decent QB back there, I think he's got some upside. I'd like to see what Ratliff can do, since it's clearly not working with Anderson and Quinn.
To use those names and throw in a couple more young prospects that I love to build some tiers:James JonesAndre CaldwellChas SchilensMike WallaceJohnny KnoxJacoby JonesMohammad MassoquaiAustin ColliePierre GarconJones and Caldwell are the presumptive #2s going forward in potent passing attacks with highly regarded young QBs. They've got phenomenal and stable situations, and both have demonstrated enough to me on the field that I think they're almost assuredly up to the task. I could see them both becoming Houshmandzadeh or Donald Driver types going forward, just to name the two WRs they'd be taking over for. Schilens also gets up in that tier because he's the most talented receiver of the bunch. Those three guys are about as safe of a play as a guy can be while still being called a "prospect".Wallace, Knox, and Jacoby are all upside plays. They've all flashed some very, very interesting potential, but their current game has too many holes for them to be anything more than situational threats at the moment. If they round out the rest of their game, they could be major NFL threats. If not, then they're the next generation of Devery Henderson- fantastic situational weapons with too small of a role to be counted on in fantasy.MoMass, Collie, and Garcon are solid prospects, but a bit below those guys. Collie and Garcon are lower because of the "Too Many Mouths To Feed" syndrome in Indy. MoMass is lower because his hands are inconsistent and his situation is brutal. I haven't seen enough from Mass (either in college or in the pros) to convince me that he's a reliable #1-type guy at the NFL level, but I recognize the potential for me to be wrong there, so I'm not going to bury him in my rankings.
I'd have Mass easily over all of those guys for one simple reason:He's the clear #1 receiver on his team RIGHT NOW. None of those other guys are likely to have that distinction for quite some time if ever. Some of them may "produce" on an NFL level, but none of them seem to be "go-to" type players (except maybe Schilens?). Guys who are valuable in fantasy are ALMOST always the top receiver on their team. Obviously, there are some exceptions to that guideline, but by and large that's what I look for in a dynasty prospect.Now he has a lot of issues to overcome before he's a viable fantasy starter and obviously his team is horrible. But he's already had two games where he's looked like a number one, and most of those other guys haven't really shown anything like that (again, except maybe Schilens).I'm not trying to say I believe he's a stud. The jury is WAY out on that. It's more that I don't really love any of those other guys either and they aren't even in line to be a focal point like he already is.
I drafted both guys as rookies and I've been holding them ever since, so I've been following the situation for a while. For a long time, I simply considered them a single player that took up two roster spots. The comparison waffled back and forth between the two of them, with Nelson sometimes looking to hold the advantage and Jones holding the advantage at other times. The reason I've finally separated the two and bumped Jones up the rankings is because the most recent chatter from Green Bay (both from the writers covering the team and from the diehard fans) suggested to me that Jones had finally taken a clear lead in the competition.
Massaquoi is the #1 by default. If Pittsburgh traded Holmes and Ward, them Wallace would be the #1, too. If Green Bay traded Jennings and Driver, then Jones would be the #1, too. If Houston traded Andre and Walter, then Jacoby would probably be the #1. Cleveland dumped Kellen and Braylon within the past 6 months, and Mohammad became the #1 as a result. I don't view that as a credit to Massaquoi so much as I view it as a condemnation of the remaining players in Cleveland. Schilens is the #1 in Oakland right now, and he's beaten out much stiffer competition (Zach Miller, Louis Murphy, and Darius Hayward-Bey > Chansi Stuckey, Brian Robiskie, and Robert Royal). He's also looked better on the field.Besides, even if Mass is the #1 (by default or otherwise), he sure as heck isn't producing like it right now. In the 6 games since he became the #1 in Cleveland, he's had 2 or fewer catches and 30 or fewer yards in 4 of them. That's the kind of production that will get you bumped down to #3 in a hurry. 15 catches on 45 targets in the 6 games since becoming a #1 is not getting it done, period.
I get the points you are making and to some degree I can agree. However, my take is a little different.Yes, Mass is clearly not ready to be a GOOD #1. But he's mostly been receiving passes from a QB having a HISTORICALLY bad season, and he's a ROOKIE (and a "raw" one at that, according to his draft profiles). Is it ALL on the QB? No, but what do you really expect from a receiver in that situation? From a somewhat promising receiver I'd expect some good games and some really bad games, which is exactly what we've seen so far from Mass. One thing is certain though. Whether he is "producing" as a #1 receiver or not, the team certainly likes him better than the guy they drafted BEFORE him in the same class. That tells me something too.And yeah, if Green Bay traded Jennings and Driver, I'd be a lot more interested in Jones, where he MIGHT be the #1 (yes, he is still in a competition for the THIRD spot on his team). But guess what? They didn't and they won't, because those guys are better than he is (more than likely). Same with the Steelers. Wallace was drafted to replace Washington, and he's doing it well. But that doesn't mean there are going to get rid of Holmes and Ward, who are big part of why Wallace (and Washington before him) is effective. If the Steelers all of the sudden thought "Wow, Wallace is really a #1 guy, we need to promote him and get rid of the guys in front of him." I'd be very impressed. But I don't think that's going to happen. Holmes will be around for a while and Ward just signed a 4 year contract. So unless you really think Wallace is BETTER than those guys (I don't), it's going to be a loooong while before Wallace even gets the opportunity to be a fantasy producer.Schilens you can make a better case for, but while you complain about Mass' production, you don't seem to have any issues with Schilens' 5 catches in two games so far as "the #1 guy" (to go along with 200 yards last year). Kid seems to have talent, but the team did draft a receiver with the #7 pick this year and I don't think Al is just going to punt on him right away. Jesus, look what it took to get Russell out of there. Murphy has looked pretty good at times as well. But if you view him as having significantly better talent than Mass, I can get at least get that argument.But for the other guys, the opportunity difference between them and Mass is way too large to ignore since none of them are really eye-popping in terms of production or apparent talent at this point.
I'm not rating Jones, Caldwell, etc. over Mass because of their opportunity. I think they've all looked better on the field so far. I was low on Massaquoi coming out (I saw him play a lot at Georgia and was thoroughly and completely unimpressed), and while I can't FAULT HIM for his terrible production as the #1 target in a historically inept passing offense, it certainly isn't anything that would cause me to move him up from where I originally had him, either.If anything, I'm guilty of exactly the opposite of what you think. It's not that I'm ignoring Mass's opportunity in ranking him as low as I have him, it's that his opportunity is the only reason I have him as high as I do. I've actually been really impressed with Caldwell, Schilens, Knox, the Joneses, and Wallace. Caldwell in particular.
My point is that for ME, opportunity has to factor in (and significantly). But, I get that you just don't think he's talented enough to be a long-term solution and I can respect that.And since I don't see anything from any of these guys that TOTALLY jumps out at me, I'll just go with the guy who is the clear #1 option on his team and has had a couple of huge games this year in a pretty tough situation. That vs a lot of guys who mostly seem to me to be settling into prototypical slot receiver roles looking solid playing against nickel backs (again, Chaz not in this category).
I'd recommend taking another look at Andre Caldwell. From what I've seen, he's been doing a lot more than feasting on opposing defenses' inattention. He's already Palmer's go-to guy in clutch situations.
In general, though, I prefer the "moon" strategy (especially in dynasty leagues).
You're selling Caldwell's upside short. The last player to hold the role that he's currently in line for finished as fantasy WR14 (in 14 games), fantasy WR11 (in 14 games), and fantasy WR7 (in 16 games) from 2005-2007. That WR *averaged* 6.7 catches per game from '06-'07 (which pro-rates to 107 catches over 16 games), and averaged .7 TDs per game during the same span (11 TDs a season). Caldwell was a 1st day draft pick (albeit 3rd round, but higher than almost any other WR we're currently discussing), and he possesses legit speed (a forty in the low 4.3s). I don't see any reason why he COULDN'T be a top-10 fantasy receiver. Now, it's not likely that he will be, but only because it's unlikely that any individual WR will crack the top 10 in fantasy... but, as I said, speaking strictly of upside, his is as high as anyone else's that I listed.BTW, I'm not super high on Caldwell, but he's a nice player. I believe he's one of those guys with a high floor & a low ceiling. I'm not getting a good feel for who I'd compare him to, but maybe a poor man's Eddie Royal. Much like Royal, I think Caldwell will be a better real-world player than FF player.Caldwell is definitely somebody you should keep an eye on, but he doesn't have the upside of some similar WRs, IMO. I guess it kinda depends on how you draft & what you're trying to accomplish. I tend to go for higher upside players like Knox & Massaquoi, but there's greater risk. In general, I shoot for the moon. You hit the moon every once in awhile, but sometimes you fall short & hit a star, which isn't a bad thing. Then there's times when you hit nothing & strike out.
TJ is a unique player. I don't believe Caldwell will be able to do anything close to that. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised to see Henry grab the #2 role next season. They really need his vertical game. Caldwell has speed, but that doesn't necessarily mean he's a good deep threat. Again, Caldwell is a nice player, but I'd be really surprised if he turned into a top-20 WR. Like I said, one of those guys to keep monitoring, but I don't think the upside is there for that kind of production. Looks like we disagree again.You're selling Caldwell's upside short. The last player to hold the role that he's currently in line for finished as fantasy WR14 (in 14 games), fantasy WR11 (in 14 games), and fantasy WR7 (in 16 games) from 2005-2007. That WR *averaged* 6.7 catches per game from '06-'07 (which pro-rates to 107 catches over 16 games), and averaged .7 TDs per game during the same span (11 TDs a season). Caldwell was a 1st day draft pick (albeit 3rd round, but higher than almost any other WR we're currently discussing), and he possesses legit speed (a forty in the low 4.3s). I don't see any reason why he COULDN'T be a top-10 fantasy receiver. Now, it's not likely that he will be, but only because it's unlikely that any individual WR will crack the top 10 in fantasy... but, as I said, speaking strictly of upside, his is as high as anyone else's that I listed.BTW, I'm not super high on Caldwell, but he's a nice player. I believe he's one of those guys with a high floCr & a low ceiling. I'm not getting a good feel for who I'd compare him to, but maybe a poor man's Eddie Royal. Much like Royal, I think Caldwell will be a better real-world player than FF player.Caldwell is definitely somebody you should keep an eye on, but he doesn't have the upside of some similar WRs, IMO. I guess it kinda depends on how you draft & what you're trying to accomplish. I tend to go for higher upside players like Knox & Massaquoi, but there's greater risk. In general, I shoot for the moon. You hit the moon every once in awhile, but sometimes you fall short & hit a star, which isn't a bad thing. Then there's times when you hit nothing & strike out.In general, though, I prefer the "moon" strategy (especially in dynasty leagues).
He also has momentary lapses of concentration.
