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more bad news on foster (1 Viewer)

Pumpnick

Footballguy
John McClain of the Houston Chronicle expressed concern about Arian Foster's (back, calf) Week 1 availability on Twitter Sunday.
"If I'm (coach Gary) Kubiak and Arian Foster has a back injury that's requiring injections and feeling pain in legs, I'm worried about him for opener," wrote McClain. At a Sunday presser, Kubiak revealed Foster's back pain "has gone into his legs," and doctors advised injections to alleviate it. "They tell me these injections take time," said Kubiak. "We're taking our time. ... The running back picture is concerning." Foster has missed every timeline to return to practice the Texans' coaches and medical staff have set in front of him. After three years of overuse, it's fair to wonder if Foster's body is beginning to break down. Aug 18 - 4:24 PM

 
time to downgrade?
yup, tipping point reached IMHO. But we were here two years ago and he went on to gobble up the yards when he came back. So do so with extreme caution.
A hammy is different then back pain into the legs. Definitely time to downgrade, question is how much?Kubiaks quote throws up red flags to me when he says the RB picture is concerning.

 
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time to downgrade?
yup, tipping point reached IMHO. But we were here two years ago and he went on to gobble up the yards when he came back. So do so with extreme caution.
A hammy is different then back pain into the legs. Definitely time to downgrade, question is how much?Kubiaks quote throws up red flags to me when he says the RB picture is concerning.
Not that my experience is at all the same, but a couple of years ago I thought that I had pulled a hamstring... but it just would NOT go away. Went to the doctor and found out it was a back issue (disc was settled down on the nerve that enervated my left leg). Did the physical therapy, cortisone injections--got to the point where I couldn't bend over to tie my shoes. Finally ended up in back surgery (microdiscectomy). Feel great now, though.

 
So if Ben Tate is on Waivers, Should i attempt to grab him?
He should have been drafted, so yes.

I wonder if all of those touches really did catch up to Foster.
So are we asking if Foster went from a couple of 150 total yard playoff games back in January, to resting for 6-7 months, to all of a sudden a broken down old used piece of trash??

I am gonna say no...........but ya never know I guess.

I will bet he plays week 1.

 
So if Ben Tate is on Waivers, Should i attempt to grab him?
He should have been drafted, so yes.

I wonder if all of those touches really did catch up to Foster.
So are we asking if Foster went from a couple of 150 total yard playoff games back in January, to resting for 6-7 months, to all of a sudden a broken down old used piece of trash??

I am gonna say no...........but ya never know I guess.

I will bet he plays week 1.
Not sure. All I know is that if I'm using a high pick on Foster I'm reaching like hell for Tate. It's more important to handcuff him now than ever.

 
So if Ben Tate is on Waivers, Should i attempt to grab him?
He should have been drafted, so yes.

I wonder if all of those touches really did catch up to Foster.
So are we asking if Foster went from a couple of 150 total yard playoff games back in January, to resting for 6-7 months, to all of a sudden a broken down old used piece of trash??

I am gonna say no...........but ya never know I guess.

I will bet he plays week 1.
Not sure. All I know is that if I'm using a high pick on Foster I'm reaching like hell for Tate. It's more important to handcuff him now than ever.
Eff all that if you draft depth then handcuffing is irrelevant and usually the wrong move anyway.

 
So if Ben Tate is on Waivers, Should i attempt to grab him?
He should have been drafted, so yes.

I wonder if all of those touches really did catch up to Foster.
So are we asking if Foster went from a couple of 150 total yard playoff games back in January, to resting for 6-7 months, to all of a sudden a broken down old used piece of trash??

I am gonna say no...........but ya never know I guess.

I will bet he plays week 1.
Not sure. All I know is that if I'm using a high pick on Foster I'm reaching like hell for Tate. It's more important to handcuff him now than ever.
Eff all that if you draft depth then handcuffing is irrelevant and usually the wrong move anyway.
Are you even paying attention to the news coming out of the HOU camp? Regardless, you'd have to hit the jackpot to draft enough "depth" to make up for the loss of Foster assuming the worst case scenario. I'll almost always urge people to handcuff other players RBs but in this situation you're almost obligated to grab Tate. Asserting the contrary is asinine.

Foster was run into the ground last year and lead the league with 351 carries. This in conjunction with him missing every time table set to return to practice are red flags IMO. He gave owners (me) a scare last year as well but at least he was able to suit up for the 3rd preseason game. He doesn't even sound close right now.

Again, if you're a Foster owner, grab Tate.

 
Hell no I am not going to handcuff Foster with Tate. I NEVER go after handcuffs that need to be drafted as high as Tate. I view it as a wasted pick, and a serious decrease in your chances of winning your league. What is the upside?? If Foster gets hurt and Tate comes in and does very well...................you don't even gain anything. All you get is points from Tate that you would be getting from Foster (which is a big assumption, since there is clearly NOOOOOOO guarantee Tate will produce like Foster, which makes it an even worse play than if we KNEW he would produce well). So you get the good production from your first round pick (via Tate), but now the pick you used to get Tate is getting you nothing.

On the other hand, if Foster is healthy, then tate is fairly worthless this year, making your Tate pick a wasted pick.

Again, I am talking about handcuffs that need to be drafted HIGH. If Tate was going to be there in the 12th round then sure, I would easily take him.

I am perfectly fine taking Tate somewhat early, but NOT if I have already taken Foster. It is a homerun if you drafted Tate and he benefits from a Foster injury, but it's only a homerun if you took some other stud RB in the first round to have alongside Tate in your lineup, not Foster.

A lot of people debate the handcuff thing, in this case the debate is whether to take a handcuff if it requires spending a fairly early pick to get the guy. I say no, and I never will. Only way I would even consider it is if the team is notorious for giving two RBs a lot of touches every game. I don't see that from any team in the NFL right now, and I certainly don't see it happening in Houston with any consistency this year.

(and I am talking about redraft here, not dynasty)

 
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Hell no I am not going to handcuff Foster with Tate. I NEVER go after handcuffs that need to be drafted as high as Tate. I view it as a wasted pick, and a serious decrease in your chances of winning your league. What is the upside?? If Foster gets hurt and Tate comes in and does very well...................you don't even gain anything. All you get is points from Tate that you would be getting from Foster (which is a big assumption, since there is clearly NOOOOOOO guarantee Tate will produce like Foster, which makes it an even worse play than if we KNEW he would produce well). So you get the good production from your first round pick (via Tate), but now the pick you used to get Tate is getting you nothing.

On the other hand, if Foster is healthy, then tate is fairly worthless this year, making your Tate pick a wasted pick.

Again, I am talking about handcuffs that need to be drafted HIGH. If Tate was going to be there in the 12th round then sure, I would easily take him.

I am perfectly fine taking Tate somewhat early, but NOT if I have already taken Foster. It is a homerun if you drafted Tate and he benefits from a Foster injury, but it's only a homerun if you took some other stud RB in the first round to have alongside Tate in your lineup, not Foster.

A lot of people debate the handcuff thing, in this case the debate is whether to take a handcuff if it requires spending a fairly early pick to get the guy. I say no, and I never will. Only way I would even consider it is if the team is notorious for giving two RBs a lot of touches every game. I don't see that from any team in the NFL right now, and I certainly don't see it happening in Houston with any consistency this year.

(and I am talking about redraft here, not dynasty)
Okay... So you draft foster, decide not to handcuff him, and he gets hurt. What have you done for yourself then?

 
You put a high draft pick on Tate because he has been productive in the past and the texans could throw Shonn Green out there and turn him into a high end RB2.

If you're EVER going to handcuff its with someone like Tate or Bryce Brown. And with Fosters current situation, it's more of an insurance policy than anything else

 
time to downgrade?
yup, tipping point reached IMHO. But we were here two years ago and he went on to gobble up the yards when he came back. So do so with extreme caution.
A hammy is different then back pain into the legs. Definitely time to downgrade, question is how much?Kubiaks quote throws up red flags to me when he says the RB picture is concerning.
Not that my experience is at all the same, but a couple of years ago I thought that I had pulled a hamstring... but it just would NOT go away. Went to the doctor and found out it was a back issue (disc was settled down on the nerve that enervated my left leg). Did the physical therapy, cortisone injections--got to the point where I couldn't bend over to tie my shoes. Finally ended up in back surgery (microdiscectomy). Feel great now, though.
Cool story bro

 
The value of Tate goes up regardless of whether or not you own Foster. If you are a Foster fan who wants to reduce variance you probably bump a bit more.

 
By drafting foster and then tate in say......the 7th or 8th round, all you are "insuring" is that you give an advantage to every other team who doesn't draft a handcuff early, instead using their 7th or 8th rounder on a starter that will produce.

I would much rather play to win than use a valuable pick on my own stud rb's handcuffs. Now if I take Peterson or something and then wait a long time for rb, and grab a guy like tate, you will be very stong everywhere except rb-2, and if foster gets hurt at that point you are a big favorite. If he doesn't, I would hope with a few other fliers at rb you can piece together a rb-2 throughout the year to give yourself a chance to win the league.

Sorry, I just think spending a high pick on a backup to my own player automatically puts me at a disadvantage.

 
By drafting foster and then tate in say......the 7th or 8th round, all you are "insuring" is that you give an advantage to every other team who doesn't draft a handcuff early, instead using their 7th or 8th rounder on a starter that will produce.

I would much rather play to win than use a valuable pick on my own stud rb's handcuffs. Now if I take Peterson or something and then wait a long time for rb, and grab a guy like tate, you will be very stong everywhere except rb-2, and if foster gets hurt at that point you are a big favorite. If he doesn't, I would hope with a few other fliers at rb you can piece together a rb-2 throughout the year to give yourself a chance to win the league.

Sorry, I just think spending a high pick on a backup to my own player automatically puts me at a disadvantage.
Tate's value is what it is, regardless if you own Foster. RBs are going to go down and having the guys that step in adds value to your roster.

 
In a league where Bradshaw is relevant despite having bumb feet and Lynch ahs been playing with a "bad back" for two years, I'm pretty sure unless we get "Peyton Manning" type news coming out of Houston, the downgrade and concern to Foster will be severely over exxagerated.

I know people are itching like crazy to talk about overuse, despite the idea that many great backs have carried an actual full load for a few seasons in a row and not been scrutinized so severely and since I don't know the truth anymore thatn anyone else here, I'll stop short of saying its not a big concern. Instead, I'll simply offer the other side to consider, should people want to.

As a person who follows the Texans and the fantasy impacts of this team pretty closely, my honest reaction to what I've heard is I believe Kubiak would have said so if they thought it was a serious issue like a true back problem (disc, pinched nerve, etc). Foster is incredibly importnat to what they do and the texans have made no bones about mentioning that they think a large part of their collapse last year was that they wore down in a couple of spots. They also have the experience of dealing with life without foster two years ago when they rushed him back on the hamstring and it lingered for several weeks. I believe they are being extremely cautious and I do think that missing this much time limits him being physically conditioned right now. But I will stop short of saying "downgrade" and pretty much putting him out of mind. Unless his condition is much more serious than reported, I would expect him to be out there doing his thing and being a top back fairly soon.

 
So does drafting a different player that starts for not only his NFL team, but your team as well, instead of drafting your backup with that valuable pick.

There is no "upside" to it. You can never play BOTH.

Also, this is assuming tate steps in and plays well for an extended period of time if foster had a serious injury. That's a big assumption. He is one of the best perceived backups sure, but far from any kind of guaranteed production.

 
By drafting foster and then tate in say......the 7th or 8th round, all you are "insuring" is that you give an advantage to every other team who doesn't draft a handcuff early, instead using their 7th or 8th rounder on a starter that will produce.

I would much rather play to win than use a valuable pick on my own stud rb's handcuffs. Now if I take Peterson or something and then wait a long time for rb, and grab a guy like tate, you will be very stong everywhere except rb-2, and if foster gets hurt at that point you are a big favorite. If he doesn't, I would hope with a few other fliers at rb you can piece together a rb-2 throughout the year to give yourself a chance to win the league.

Sorry, I just think spending a high pick on a backup to my own player automatically puts me at a disadvantage.
but if you have Foster and he's out you're at a disadvantage if you don't own Tate. It's just a different strategy that you don't agree with. It's like an insurance policy...it's worthless until you need it.

 
Is Miles Austin worth the drop? Lineup in Sig
Definitely drop Martin for him.
You mean Austin? lol
No I meant Martin. Or possibly drop Richardson.http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?showforum=12
You're funny Sir...
Don't pay attention to him. You could drop both Richardson and Martin. The open roster spot gives you some flexibility for next round of waivers, and as you probably know flexibility is most important to win this game. Most people would zig and keep those players, but you need to zag. That's how winners are made.

 
By drafting foster and then tate in say......the 7th or 8th round, all you are "insuring" is that you give an advantage to every other team who doesn't draft a handcuff early, instead using their 7th or 8th rounder on a starter that will produce.

I would much rather play to win than use a valuable pick on my own stud rb's handcuffs. Now if I take Peterson or something and then wait a long time for rb, and grab a guy like tate, you will be very stong everywhere except rb-2, and if foster gets hurt at that point you are a big favorite. If he doesn't, I would hope with a few other fliers at rb you can piece together a rb-2 throughout the year to give yourself a chance to win the league.

Sorry, I just think spending a high pick on a backup to my own player automatically puts me at a disadvantage.
but if you have Foster and he's out you're at a disadvantage if you don't own Tate. It's just a different strategy that you don't agree with. It's like an insurance policy...it's worthless until you need it.
Right, not everything is about upside, sometimes it is about limiting downside and protecting valued possessions...like the guy you picked 2nd overall, a RB you can't just replace with a some late round sleeper. Does Tate automatically give you Foster's production? No, but we have seen he can produce very good stats if given the chance. It is far more likely that he Tate produces as a RB1 if given the chance than Mark Ingram or Daryl Richardson. I'll give you that conversely it is more likely that Ingram and Richardson are more likely to produce low end RB 2 than Tate. Tate is a less conservative approach that it seems when you look at potential.

 
By drafting foster and then tate in say......the 7th or 8th round, all you are "insuring" is that you give an advantage to every other team who doesn't draft a handcuff early, instead using their 7th or 8th rounder on a starter that will produce.

I would much rather play to win than use a valuable pick on my own stud rb's handcuffs. Now if I take Peterson or something and then wait a long time for rb, and grab a guy like tate, you will be very stong everywhere except rb-2, and if foster gets hurt at that point you are a big favorite. If he doesn't, I would hope with a few other fliers at rb you can piece together a rb-2 throughout the year to give yourself a chance to win the league.

Sorry, I just think spending a high pick on a backup to my own player automatically puts me at a disadvantage.
but if you have Foster and he's out you're at a disadvantage if you don't own Tate. It's just a different strategy that you don't agree with. It's like an insurance policy...it's worthless until you need it.
Right, not everything is about upside, sometimes it is about limiting downside and protecting valued possessions...like the guy you picked 2nd overall, a RB you can't just replace with a some late round sleeper. Does Tate automatically give you Foster's production? No, but we have seen he can produce very good stats if given the chance. It is far more likely that he Tate produces as a RB1 if given the chance than Mark Ingram or Daryl Richardson. I'll give you that conversely it is more likely that Ingram and Richardson are more likely to produce low end RB 2 than Tate. Tate is a less conservative approach that it seems when you look at potential.
I'm firmly in the camp that handcuffing in non-dynasty leagues is a rather bad approach to fantasy. Although that's mainly because there's either only bad backs behind the starter or because there's uncertainty in who would be the beneficiary of the touches (say Philly with Polk and Brown). With this Foster situation though? If you draft Foster, you have to reach for Tate. Yes, you're 'wasting' a pick if Foster ends up being healthy. If he doesn't though? You're insuring that your first round RB1 pick still exists. You'd be hard pressed to find someone who wouldn't project Tate as a RB1 if he's a full time back in the Texans backfield. So yes, trying to take Tate in the 7th or 8th round sucks but you really don't have a choice in my opinion. The other guys you're taking as you say are the Daryl Richardson and Mark Ingrams of the world. There floor is RB3/Flex... Tate's floor is non-existent with Foster healthy, but his floor with Foster out is high end RB2 with RB1 upside. None of the guys in that 7th-8th round have that kind of upside.

 
Ah, but how high do you reach? One has to think that Tate's ADP will climb a lot as long as the situation remains uncertain, with the potential payoff being just a couple starts, just like 2011. If I were skeptical about Foster (I'm not, really) I'd probably just invest in someone else.

 
Ah, but how high do you reach? One has to think that Tate's ADP will climb a lot as long as the situation remains uncertain, with the potential payoff being just a couple starts, just like 2011. If I were skeptical about Foster (I'm not, really) I'd probably just invest in someone else.
What makes you not be skeptical about Foster? All signs point to this being a lot more serious than the team is letting on right now. He's had several time tables for return and every time he's about to return he has another weird random injury crop up that keeps him out for an indefinite amount of time. If anything each passing day that doesn't hold the news "Arian Foster back at practice today" drops him a almost whole pick to me. At least back in 2011 we knew exactly what was wrong and had a realistic timetable for his return. Right now it's just 'soreness in his back, we gave him a shot, now it's in his legs'. Who knows if this could turn out to be something serious or not. Hell it may be something more serious and they aren't letting it be known about bad it is right now.

 
Ah, but how high do you reach? One has to think that Tate's ADP will climb a lot as long as the situation remains uncertain, with the potential payoff being just a couple starts, just like 2011. If I were skeptical about Foster (I'm not, really) I'd probably just invest in someone else.
What makes you not be skeptical about Foster? All signs point to this being a lot more serious than the team is letting on right now. He's had several time tables for return and every time he's about to return he has another weird random injury crop up that keeps him out for an indefinite amount of time. If anything each passing day that doesn't hold the news "Arian Foster back at practice today" drops him a almost whole pick to me. At least back in 2011 we knew exactly what was wrong and had a realistic timetable for his return. Right now it's just 'soreness in his back, we gave him a shot, now it's in his legs'. Who knows if this could turn out to be something serious or not. Hell it may be something more serious and they aren't letting it be known about bad it is right now.
I'm obviously paying attention to the news, but I'm not of the belief he's going to be IRed or miss 12 games or something like that. I don't have any redrafts for 2 weeks, and I guess that informs my decision-making. At that point, we'll know more than we know now and be able to make better decisions.If you're drafting now, I think it's a questionable move to draft Foster and then reach for Ben Tate when you might get 1 or 3 starts out of him. The gamble might pay off, but it still feels like an insurance play vs. an upside play. And if you feel the need to play the insurance game, draft someone other than Foster in the first round. Take Ben Tate later if you want, but I don't think grabbing both backs 2-3 weeks before the Texans have their first game is the smartest play.

 
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Ah, but how high do you reach? One has to think that Tate's ADP will climb a lot as long as the situation remains uncertain, with the potential payoff being just a couple starts, just like 2011. If I were skeptical about Foster (I'm not, really) I'd probably just invest in someone else.
The more their ADPs start to move towards one another, the more I would tend to just avoid the whole situation. Either that or you pick one and go all in.

 
I'll be more concerned if/when they bring in more RBs for a look. Tate hasn't exactly proven himself an iron man, and they have 3 undrafted RBs battling for #3. Either the Texans truly aren't too concerned, or they have a horrible front office, especially for a playoff team with Super Bowl aspirations.

 
So if Ben Tate is on Waivers, Should i attempt to grab him?
He should have been drafted, so yes.

I wonder if all of those touches really did catch up to Foster.
So are we asking if Foster went from a couple of 150 total yard playoff games back in January, to resting for 6-7 months, to all of a sudden a broken down old used piece of trash??

I am gonna say no...........but ya never know I guess.

I will bet he plays week 1.
This. Though taking him top five takes considerably more balls than it did two weeks ago.

 
He has been dropping in mocks. The lowest i had was today in the 3rd. No way that happens in my real draft

 
So if Ben Tate is on Waivers, Should i attempt to grab him?
He should have been drafted, so yes.

I wonder if all of those touches really did catch up to Foster.
So are we asking if Foster went from a couple of 150 total yard playoff games back in January, to resting for 6-7 months, to all of a sudden a broken down old used piece of trash??

I am gonna say no...........but ya never know I guess.

I will bet he plays week 1.
The way you phrase it might be stretching things, but it's probably not as far from the right question as you imagine it to be.

Injuries hit you all at once. One moment you're running like a finely tuned engine, the next, the machine doesn't work, because a part is broken.

Wear and tear hits you a little differently. Over and over in pro sports we've seen that. The guy says he's going to give it another try, comes back after the off-season, and finds his body just doesn't respond like it used to. That's why you see so many training camp retirements, or guys that get cut and just never resurface. Joints that used to hurt like hell and then bounce back just keep hurting like hell. Back stiffness that used to go away with a massage becomes a permanent feature of your mobility. The body has a finite capacity for recovery, and the balances tip at different points for everybody, but time and punishment are always factors. Foster has put in a decent amount of the first, and has absorbed a tremendous amount of the second.

And understand as well that for NFL purposes it's not just about, "can you physically do it?" You've got to understand that the backups in the NFL are among the 30 or 40 best in the entire world at what they do. If you wake up every day feeling creaky, and can't quite go 100% to the extent that you used to, you're going to get passed by a guy who may be a message board laughing stock, but is just an insanely good athlete all the same.

If Foster ain't quite right, and has taken enough punishment that he can't get quite right each and every week with only one week's rest any more, no matter how much more brutality he absorbs, he goes the way of Shaun Alexander in a hurry.

It happens to them all, sooner or later, if they stick around long enough. Do we know it's happening to Foster? No, but there are starting to be signs. And he certainly wouldn't be the first to break down at his age or after his workload of the last few years.

I don't think it renders him undraftable, but I do think it makes him a very dangerous proposition anywhere near his ADP.

 
I'm surprised there aren't more mentions of those 3 UDFA's battling for the #3 spot.

From a dynasty perspective, there is an opportunity to buy low right now. Early on it looked like Dennis Johnson was the leader, but I read that Cierre Wood has been gaining on him.

Especially if Tate is in a contract year, the #3 could be a big factor in '14

 
Tate's been injured far more often than Foster, not sure I'd be ready to hitch my horse to that wagon.

That said, this news is disconcerting for Foster owners (speaking as one).

 
I'm surprised there aren't more mentions of those 3 UDFA's battling for the #3 spot.

From a dynasty perspective, there is an opportunity to buy low right now. Early on it looked like Dennis Johnson was the leader, but I read that Cierre Wood has been gaining on him.

Especially if Tate is in a contract year, the #3 could be a big factor in '14
Yes and Deji Karim was talked up by Kubiak this past week and rehearsed in PS game two. So still murky for Foster dynasty owners who want to know who #3 Texans rb is.

 
Feeling pretty nifty about taking Tate in the 10th in my FSWA league. We'll see if HE can stay healthy (if given the lion's share with Foster perhaps out).

 

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