More Patriot Injury news - Aaron Hernandez off-season shoulder Surgery (1 Viewer)

[KellysHeroes]

Aaron Hernandez - TE - Patriots
Aaron Hernandez reportedly underwent shoulder surgery this offseason.
Sources tell NFL.com that Hernandez will miss both OTAs and minicamps, but the "likelihood" is that he'll be ready for training camp. It's still a concern for a player that has struggled mightily to stay healthy, as he's missed 10 games over the last two seasons due to ankle, concussion and knee issues. It's unclear when this injury occurred, but the Patriots now have medical flags next to both their starting tight ends as Rob Gronkowski's arm woes continue. Hernandez has never made it through a full season healthy in his three-year NFL career.

 

[Shutout]

Honestly, the only thing I take form this is wondering if he was playing with an injury down the stretch because he had that real clunker in Week 16 (thanks) but overall was pretty danged good in the regular season and playoffs.

I guess there will be some people wanting to add this to the list of injuries he has so I guess that is worth noting as well.

 

[Tanner9919]

Aaron Hernandez - TE - Patriots
Aaron Hernandez reportedly underwent shoulder surgery this offseason.
Sources tell NFL.com that Hernandez will miss both OTAs and minicamps, but the "likelihood" is that he'll be ready for training camp. It's still a concern for a player that has struggled mightily to stay healthy, as he's missed 10 games over the last two seasons due to ankle, concussion and knee issues. It's unclear when this injury occurred, but the Patriots now have medical flags next to both their starting tight ends as Rob Gronkowski's arm woes continue. Hernandez has never made it through a full season healthy in his three-year NFL career.

that about sums it up,really..

an oft-injured, highly overrated player..and yet people will somehow view him as a top 5 TE..

 

[KellysHeroes]

Wasn't he training w Brady a couple of weeks ago, either he hurt himself while training or had the op right after the season?

 

[Concept Coop]

Aaron Hernandez - TE - Patriots
Aaron Hernandez reportedly underwent shoulder surgery this offseason.
Sources tell NFL.com that Hernandez will miss both OTAs and minicamps, but the "likelihood" is that he'll be ready for training camp. It's still a concern for a player that has struggled mightily to stay healthy, as he's missed 10 games over the last two seasons due to ankle, concussion and knee issues. It's unclear when this injury occurred, but the Patriots now have medical flags next to both their starting tight ends as Rob Gronkowski's arm woes continue. Hernandez has never made it through a full season healthy in his three-year NFL career.

that about sums it up,really..

an oft-injured, highly overrated player..and yet people will somehow view him as a top 5 TE..

How can he not be top 5? When he plays, he produces. He's one of the most elusive players in the league, plays in a great offense, scores TDs, high target/catch rates, very young... I can understand not paying the price to get him, or not valuing him on par with the market. But not a top 5 TE? Who do you put ahead of him? Rudolph? Witten? Pitta?

Hernandez + baseline replacement finished as TE 5 last year. Think about that; 9 games, one of which he left early. Simply place in a baseline option, and you're STILL top 5.

 

[JustinHawkins]

Hernandez is a beast. Can't fathom him NOT being top 5, and more likely top 3 IMO.

 

[mr roboto]

Aaron Hernandez - TE - Patriots

Aaron Hernandez reportedly underwent shoulder surgery this offseason.

Sources tell NFL.com that Hernandez will miss both OTAs and minicamps, but the "likelihood" is that he'll be ready for training camp. It's still a concern for a player that has struggled mightily to stay healthy, as he's missed 10 games over the last two seasons due to ankle, concussion and knee issues. It's unclear when this injury occurred, but the Patriots now have medical flags next to both their starting tight ends as Rob Gronkowski's arm woes continue. Hernandez has never made it through a full season healthy in his three-year NFL career.

that about sums it up,really..an oft-injured, highly overrated player..and yet people will somehow view him as a top 5 TE..

Either highly misinformed or

 

[Quibbler]

Aaron Hernandez - TE - Patriots
Aaron Hernandez reportedly underwent shoulder surgery this offseason.
Sources tell NFL.com that Hernandez will miss both OTAs and minicamps, but the "likelihood" is that he'll be ready for training camp. It's still a concern for a player that has struggled mightily to stay healthy, as he's missed 10 games over the last two seasons due to ankle, concussion and knee issues. It's unclear when this injury occurred, but the Patriots now have medical flags next to both their starting tight ends as Rob Gronkowski's arm woes continue. Hernandez has never made it through a full season healthy in his three-year NFL career.

that about sums it up,really..

an oft-injured, highly overrated player..and yet people will somehow view him as a top 5 TE..

How can he not be top 5? When he plays, he produces. He's one of the most elusive players in the league, plays in a great offense, scores TDs, high target/catch rates, very young... I can understand not paying the price to get him, or not valuing him on par with the market. But not a top 5 TE? Who do you put ahead of him? Rudolph? Witten? Pitta?

Hernandez + baseline replacement finished as TE 5 last year. Think about that; 9 games, one of which he left early. Simply place in a baseline option, and you're STILL top 5.

Exactly, unless you play in a league with very small benches--in which case, having to carry a backup TE can be a real burden--then a guy like Hernandez is much more valuable than a more durable but up and down player like Pitta. When Hernandez plays he's good, and when he doesn't you can sub in someone else.

 

[Sabertooth]

He is great but you need a starting level backup. And of you need that, how much value does he really have?

 

[Concept Coop]

He is great but you need a starting level backup. And of you need that, how much value does he really have?

How much does a starting level backup cost? We're talking about Celek, Chandler, Bennett, type guys. They're free. And that's assuming we porject his injury history to repeat year after year. I'm not ready to do that.

He's my TE3, and, in most formats, a 3rd-4th round startup pick.

 

[lawrenceofbruno]

This has me thinking the smart money is investing in Jake Ballard. NE utilizes tight ends early and often, and Ballard was showing something special until injury in the Superbowl when he helped the Giants defeat my Pats. With Gronk and Hernandez in and out of the lineup, Ballard may be a cheap but valuable play this year. It might be spot starts, but still, seems like a good gamble to me. Any opinions?

 

[Sabertooth]

He is great but you need a starting level backup. And of you need that, how much value does he really have?

How much does a starting level backup cost? We're talking about Celek, Chandler, Bennett, type guys. They're free. And that's assuming we porject his injury history to repeat year after year. I'm not ready to do that. He's my TE3, and, in most formats, a 3rd-4th round startup pick.

3/4 is a huge price to pay for a part timer. You are sacrificing a top qb or wr2.

 

[Concept Coop]

He is great but you need a starting level backup. And of you need that, how much value does he really have?

How much does a starting level backup cost? We're talking about Celek, Chandler, Bennett, type guys. They're free. And that's assuming we porject his injury history to repeat year after year. I'm not ready to do that. He's my TE3, and, in most formats, a 3rd-4th round startup pick.

3/4 is a huge price to pay for a part timer. You are sacrificing a top qb or wr2.

Because a player has missed time, doesn't mean he will continue to. To this point his injuries have been unrelated and are not chronic. Bad luck happens some times.

When he plays, he gives your team a major advantage at the TE spot. I know it's a gamble, but I'd be willing to make it. I don't blame you, or anyone else from looking elsewhere at 3/4. Just my thoughts and why I'm willing to pull the trigger.

 

[KellysHeroes]

He is great but you need a starting level backup. And of you need that, how much value does he really have?

How much does a starting level backup cost? We're talking about Celek, Chandler, Bennett, type guys. They're free. And that's assuming we porject his injury history to repeat year after year. I'm not ready to do that. He's my TE3, and, in most formats, a 3rd-4th round startup pick.

3/4 is a huge price to pay for a part timer. You are sacrificing a top qb or wr2.

was about to post this; no way I draft a guy in the 3rd or 4th and expect only 10-12 games, someone else can deal w/ that

 

[Holy Schneikes]

I believe in the NE system. I wouldn't be overly worried about losing one or two key cogs in the machine.

But at this point, they COULD be without their top FIVE receiving options from 2012 on opening day. That's weird.

 

[Quibbler]

He is great but you need a starting level backup. And of you need that, how much value does he really have?

How much does a starting level backup cost? We're talking about Celek, Chandler, Bennett, type guys. They're free. And that's assuming we porject his injury history to repeat year after year. I'm not ready to do that. He's my TE3, and, in most formats, a 3rd-4th round startup pick.

3/4 is a huge price to pay for a part timer. You are sacrificing a top qb or wr2.

Yeah, that would be too rich for my blood. I like him best in medium-sized auction leagues, where the opportunity costs aren't the same. Pay $5 extra to grab Hernandez, and go with some value picks for your bench WR/RBs.

 

[humpback]

He is great but you need a starting level backup. And of you need that, how much value does he really have?

How much does a starting level backup cost? We're talking about Celek, Chandler, Bennett, type guys. They're free. And that's assuming we porject his injury history to repeat year after year. I'm not ready to do that. He's my TE3, and, in most formats, a 3rd-4th round startup pick.

3/4 is a huge price to pay for a part timer. You are sacrificing a top qb or wr2.

Because a player has missed time, doesn't mean he will continue to. To this point his injuries have been unrelated and are not chronic. Bad luck happens some times.

When he plays, he gives your team a major advantage at the TE spot. I know it's a gamble, but I'd be willing to make it. I don't blame you, or anyone else from looking elsewhere at 3/4. Just my thoughts and why I'm willing to pull the trigger.

Does he really though?

 

[Wise Old Owl]

He is great but you need a starting level backup. And of you need that, how much value does he really have?

How much does a starting level backup cost? We're talking about Celek, Chandler, Bennett, type guys. They're free. And that's assuming we porject his injury history to repeat year after year. I'm not ready to do that. He's my TE3, and, in most formats, a 3rd-4th round startup pick.

3/4 is a huge price to pay for a part timer. You are sacrificing a top qb or wr2.

Because a player has missed time, doesn't mean he will continue to. To this point his injuries have been unrelated and are not chronic. Bad luck happens some times.

When he plays, he gives your team a major advantage at the TE spot. I know it's a gamble, but I'd be willing to make it. I don't blame you, or anyone else from looking elsewhere at 3/4. Just my thoughts and why I'm willing to pull the trigger.

Does he really though?

Only if by advantage you mean "likely to outscore your opponent's TE unless they have Graham or Gronk". He may be overpriced and injury prone, but a healthy Hernandez is the clear TE3.

 

[Concept Coop]

Does he really though?

Of course he does. Again, he missed 6 games, and as long as you had a baseline replacement, you got top 5 production. He still has potential to improve his numbers.

If you think the injuries keep coming, then you're right to avoid at his market price. But I am more agnostic about it. His injuries aren't chronic, reoccurring, or related. Sometimes it’s nothing more than random variance and bad luck.

He plays the slot and moves all over the formation, acting as a WR for a top 3 offense, yet, his points count as TE in fantasy leagues. That's an advantage.

 

[humpback]

He is great but you need a starting level backup. And of you need that, how much value does he really have?

How much does a starting level backup cost? We're talking about Celek, Chandler, Bennett, type guys. They're free. And that's assuming we porject his injury history to repeat year after year. I'm not ready to do that. He's my TE3, and, in most formats, a 3rd-4th round startup pick.

3/4 is a huge price to pay for a part timer. You are sacrificing a top qb or wr2.

Because a player has missed time, doesn't mean he will continue to. To this point his injuries have been unrelated and are not chronic. Bad luck happens some times.

When he plays, he gives your team a major advantage at the TE spot. I know it's a gamble, but I'd be willing to make it. I don't blame you, or anyone else from looking elsewhere at 3/4. Just my thoughts and why I'm willing to pull the trigger.

Does he really though?

Only if by advantage you mean "likely to outscore your opponent's TE unless they have Graham or Gronk". He may be overpriced and injury prone, but a healthy Hernandez is the clear TE3.

He said "major" advantage, and I'd argue that he provides little to none over the owners of Witten, Gonzo, etc. as well. Don't get me wrong, I like the guy and I think he has a lot of potential, but he hasn't been a huge difference maker so far.

 

[humpback]

Does he really though?

[SIZE=10.5pt]Of course he does. Again, he missed 6 games, and as long as you had a baseline replacement, you got top 5 production. He still has potential to improve his numbers. [/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]If you think the injuries keep coming, then you're right to avoid at his market price. But I am more agnostic about it. His injuries aren't chronic, reoccurring, or related. Sometimes it’s nothing more than random variance and bad luck.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]He plays the slot and moves all over the formation, acting as a WR for a top 3 offense, yet, his points count as TE in fantasy leagues. That's an advantage. [/SIZE]

Again, you said "major advantage"- the numbers say otherwise.

What routes he runs or where he lines up is irrelevant for FF, all that matters is the points. They're good, but not great.

 

[Concept Coop]

He said "major" advantage, and I'd argue that he provides little to none over the owners of Witten, Gonzo, etc. as well. Don't get me wrong, I like the guy and I think he has a lot of potential, but he hasn't been a huge difference maker so far.

We're talking about dynasty leagues, right? You're comparing a 23 YO to two guys over 30. Is Victor Cruz not an advantage over Reggie Wayne? Julio Jones over Andre Johnson?

And PPG, he is a major advantage in PPR leagues. The numbers are there. It simply comes down to this: do we expect his injury history to continue? That will answer the question re: his value.

 

[Concept Coop]

Again, you said "major advantage"- the numbers say otherwise.

What routes he runs or where he lines up is irrelevant for FF, all that matters is the points. They're good, but not great.

You're getting caught up over a subjective word. And the numbers don't say otherwise, PPG, PPR.

 

[humpback]

He said "major" advantage, and I'd argue that he provides little to none over the owners of Witten, Gonzo, etc. as well. Don't get me wrong, I like the guy and I think he has a lot of potential, but he hasn't been a huge difference maker so far.

We're talking about dynasty leagues, right? You're comparing a 23 YO to two guys over 30. Is Victor Cruz not an advantage over Reggie Wayne? Julio Jones over Andre Johnson?

And PPG, he is a major advantage in PPR leagues. The numbers are there. It simply comes down to this: do we expect his injury history to continue? That will answer the question re: his value.

I don't see any reference to dynasty in here, and this is the first mention of PPR as well.

 

[Concept Coop]

I don't see any reference to dynasty in here, and this is the first mention of PPR as well.

And the mentions of redraft/standard?

His 2011 PPG would have made him TE1 this year with a VBD of 75. You're getting high end WR2 points from your TE: major advantage.

Again, it comes down to staying healhty, and your thoughts on that moving forward. With that, I've said what I wanted to.

 

[Quibbler]

Anyone know his Points Per Start (Preferably both in PPR and standard scoring)? It would be interesting to compare them to the other top TEs. Is he closer to Gronk/Graham levels when healthy, or more like Witten and Gonzo?

 

[humpback]

Again, you said "major advantage"- the numbers say otherwise.

What routes he runs or where he lines up is irrelevant for FF, all that matters is the points. They're good, but not great.

You're getting caught up over a subjective word. And the numbers don't say otherwise, PPG, PPR.

Okay, tell me what "major" means to you? He provided zero advantage (which I think we all agree isn't open to interpretation), even on a PPG basis, over several TEs last season.

 

[KellysHeroes]

I know hes a little older but I think I'm going to start ranking Graham TE1 over the NE TEs; I rather take 5 yrs of 1000+ / 10 TDs over the 8 yrs of uncertainty these 2 bring. I look at that 17 TD season by Gronk and drool over it like the rest of us but I'm just not into this roller coaster ride.

 

[Concept Coop]

Okay, tell me what "major" means to you? He provided zero advantage (which I think we all agree isn't open to interpretation), even on a PPG basis, over several TEs last season.

He played injured last year, even leaving a game on the first drive, giving him a 0. So if you're going to use his 2012 year end total, no, he didn't provide a major advantage.

If we used his 2011 PPG, he would have been the #1 TE this year. That's an advantage over every single owner in your league. I'd call that major. Every set of dynasty rankings I respect has Hernandez in the top 3. That's an advantage over 75% of your league. I'd call that major.

 

[Concept Coop]

I know hes a little older but I think I'm going to start ranking Graham TE1 over the NE TEs; I rather take 5 yrs of 1000+ / 10 TDs over the 8 yrs of uncertainty these 2 bring. I look at that 17 TD season by Gronk and drool over it like the rest of us but I'm just not into this roller coaster ride.

This is the first year Gronk has missed a regular season fantasy game. I don't have issue with someone taking Graham over him; Graham is a hell of a player. But Gronk has averaged a TD a game for 2 years now. He is the first TE in history to have double digit TDs in each of his first 3 seasons. I think it's a bit early to call it a roller coaster ride.

 

[humpback]

Okay, tell me what "major" means to you? He provided zero advantage (which I think we all agree isn't open to interpretation), even on a PPG basis, over several TEs last season.

He played injured last year, even leaving a game on the first drive, giving him a 0. So if you're going to use his 2012 year end total, no, he didn't provide a major example.

If we used his 2011 PPG, he would have been the #1 TE this year. That's an advantage over every single owner in your league. I'd call that major. Every set of dynasty rankings I respect have Hernandez in the top 3. That's an advantage over 75% of your league. I'd call that major.

Yes, if you'd like to cherry pick to death, and move the goal posts by including PPR (and dynasty), and compare his 2011 numbers to what TEs did in 2012 for some reason, you can make it look like he gives you a major advantage. In reality, he simply hasn't done so for the most part.

 

[Concept Coop]

Yes, if you'd like to cherry pick to death, and move the goal posts by including PPR (and dynasty), and compare his 2011 numbers to what TEs did in 2012 for some reason, you can make it look like he gives you a major advantage. In reality, he simply hasn't done so for the most part.

In standard formats, he would have finished as TE2. I am using 2011 becuase he clearly played injured this year. Again, if you think that continues, then no, he won't provide you with a major advantage. If you are agnostic about it, as I am, then yes, he very clearly will.

And I am sorry if you didn't understand the format I was talking about when I said 3/4th round. I wasn't very clear. But that I didn't move goal posts or cherry pick. The data is pretty clear, in either scoring format: when he plays, he provides a major advantage. When he doesn't, well, clearly, he doesn't.

 

[KellysHeroes]

I know hes a little older but I think I'm going to start ranking Graham TE1 over the NE TEs; I rather take 5 yrs of 1000+ / 10 TDs over the 8 yrs of uncertainty these 2 bring. I look at that 17 TD season by Gronk and drool over it like the rest of us but I'm just not into this roller coaster ride.

This is the first year Gronk has missed a regular season fantasy game. I don't have issue with someone taking Graham over him; Graham is a hell of a player. But Gronk has averaged a TD a game for 2 years now. He is the first TE in history to have double digit TDs in each of his first 3 seasons. I think it's a bit early to call it a roller coaster ride.

what was gronk's snap count in 2010 compared to the other 2 yrs

 

[Concept Coop]

I know hes a little older but I think I'm going to start ranking Graham TE1 over the NE TEs; I rather take 5 yrs of 1000+ / 10 TDs over the 8 yrs of uncertainty these 2 bring. I look at that 17 TD season by Gronk and drool over it like the rest of us but I'm just not into this roller coaster ride.

This is the first year Gronk has missed a regular season fantasy game. I don't have issue with someone taking Graham over him; Graham is a hell of a player. But Gronk has averaged a TD a game for 2 years now. He is the first TE in history to have double digit TDs in each of his first 3 seasons. I think it's a bit early to call it a roller coaster ride.

what was gronk's snap count in 2010 compared to the other 2 yrs

I honestly don't know. The only snap count data I can find (outsiders) is only for 2012.

 

[ghostguy123]

For dynasty, I will take his nice points per game even if he only plays 10 games per year for me for the next DECADE (key word, decade).

He is the clear TE-3 for dynasty. Anyone disputing that is simply wrong. I realize fantasy is subjective and nothing is for certain, but if you draft a TE other than Gronk or Graham ahead of Hernandez in a dynasty draft this year, chances are you are not going to, and have probably never been successful at this game (regarding dynasty leagues) in your life.

Now add the fact that its QUITE possible he throws together some full seasons, in which case he probably takes you to a few title games.

If you don't want to draft or trade for him at his current market value, fine. Can't argue that. But if you don't rank him as your dynasty TE-3 then I have serious questions as to what the heck is going on with your thought process.

In redraft, well sure, that's a whole different ballgame, especially if it is POSSIBLE he misses time, which at this point does not look likely.

 

[Bamac]

Okay, tell me what "major" means to you? He provided zero advantage (which I think we all agree isn't open to interpretation), even on a PPG basis, over several TEs last season.

He played injured last year, even leaving a game on the first drive, giving him a 0. So if you're going to use his 2012 year end total, no, he didn't provide a major example. If we used his 2011 PPG, he would have been the #1 TE this year. That's an advantage over every single owner in your league. I'd call that major. Every set of dynasty rankings I respect have Hernandez in the top 3. That's an advantage over 75% of your league. I'd call that major.

Yes, if you'd like to cherry pick to death, and move the goal posts by including PPR (and dynasty), and compare his 2011 numbers to what TEs did in 2012 for some reason, you can make it look like he gives you a major advantage. In reality, he simply hasn't done so for the most part.

This got started when Coop called Hernandez a "round 3-4 start up pick". And ppr is probably more common than non-ppr for dynasties -- hence FBG switching to ppr for dynasty rankings. So tone it down a bit.

 

[GoodLloydHaveMercy]

Okay, tell me what "major" means to you? He provided zero advantage (which I think we all agree isn't open to interpretation), even on a PPG basis, over several TEs last season.

He played injured last year, even leaving a game on the first drive, giving him a 0. So if you're going to use his 2012 year end total, no, he didn't provide a major example. If we used his 2011 PPG, he would have been the #1 TE this year. That's an advantage over every single owner in your league. I'd call that major. Every set of dynasty rankings I respect have Hernandez in the top 3. That's an advantage over 75% of your league. I'd call that major.

Yes, if you'd like to cherry pick to death, and move the goal posts by including PPR (and dynasty), and compare his 2011 numbers to what TEs did in 2012 for some reason, you can make it look like he gives you a major advantage. In reality, he simply hasn't done so for the most part.

First of all he is absolutely the 3rd TE in dynasty formats... In redraft I'd take him in the 3rd or 4th in ppr or maybe a rd later in non ppr just because when he is healthy he is a stud and an absolute advantage in leagues without flex spots and only 1 starting TE... The only caveat is that in redraft u need to save a spot down the road for a TE to fill in if/when he misses time... Consider it like he has 4 or 5 bye weeks... Some wont want to put up with that kind of thing but he provides enough of an advantage for me to take that chance... He missed a ton of games last yr but prior to that he missed a few games each yr... I liken his situation to Hakeem nicks... Tremendous talent and situation but you realize that they are both going to miss games... It's up to you to decide whether they are worth the headache... I feel like Hernandez is worth it to me

 

[Run It Up]

He's one of the most elusive players in the league

This simply has never been true.

 

[GoodLloydHaveMercy]

He's one of the most elusive players in the league

This simply has never been true.

I would say it is true from the TE position... Not across all positions though

 

[Concept Coop]

He's one of the most elusive players in the league

This simply has never been true.

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2012/broken-tackles-2011

"Aaron Hernandez led all tight ends or wide receivers in broken tackles, by a wide margin.."

"We define a "broken tackle" as one of two events: either the ballcarrier escapes from the grasp of the defender, or the defender is in good position for a tackle but the ballcarrier jukes him out of his shoes."

 

[Hoosier16]

Concept Coop, on 16 Apr 2013 - 17:13, said:If we used his 2011 PPG, he would have been the #1 TE this year. That's an advantage over every single owner in your league. I'd call that major. Every set of dynasty rankings I respect has Hernandez in the top 3. That's an advantage over 75% of your league. I'd call that major.

Huh?So, we take his PPG from his career year, prorate it to 16 games, and then compare it to everyone else's total stats in a different year, regardless of whether they played 16 games, and come up with him as the #1 TE?Let's try again. If you use his career year (2011), only look at his PPG, and compare it to everyone else's PPG in 2012, he would end up as TE #3 (behind Gronk and Graham and a little ahead of Witten.)I don't dispute him as the current #3 TE, but he's hardly been a major advantage over everyone else. Adding a baseline guy (15-21) to his 2012 stats only gets you in the 7-11 range, which puts you at a disadvantage to half of your league.

 

[Concept Coop]

Concept Coop, on 16 Apr 2013 - 17:13, said:If we used his 2011 PPG, he would have been the #1 TE this year. That's an advantage over every single owner in your league. I'd call that major. Every set of dynasty rankings I respect has Hernandez in the top 3. That's an advantage over 75% of your league. I'd call that major.

Huh?So, we take his PPG from his career year, prorate it to 16 games, and then compare it to everyone else's total stats in a different year, regardless of whether they played 16 games, and come up with him as the #1 TE?Let's try again. If you use his career year (2011), only look at his PPG, and compare it to everyone else's PPG in 2012, he would end up as TE #3 (behind Gronk and Graham and a little ahead of Witten.)I don't dispute him as the current #3 TE, but he's hardly been a major advantage over everyone else. Adding a baseline guy (15-21) to his 2012 stats only gets you in the 7-11 range, which puts you at a disadvantage to half of your league.

If you think 2011 was an outlier, that's fine. I think that is what a healthy Hernandez is; that's why I use it. And if you're going to hint at the math - just do it. Adding baseline (which isn't 15-21) to his 2012 number in PPR formats, puts him at TE 6. And that's with the 0. As I have said the entire time, if you project him to continue to miss 2-6 games a year, and play 2-3 games on a bad wheel, he won't give you a major advantage. If you're agnostic about it, and he's healthy, he very clearly will.

 

[humpback]

Okay, tell me what "major" means to you? He provided zero advantage (which I think we all agree isn't open to interpretation), even on a PPG basis, over several TEs last season.

He played injured last year, even leaving a game on the first drive, giving him a 0. So if you're going to use his 2012 year end total, no, he didn't provide a major example. If we used his 2011 PPG, he would have been the #1 TE this year. That's an advantage over every single owner in your league. I'd call that major. Every set of dynasty rankings I respect have Hernandez in the top 3. That's an advantage over 75% of your league. I'd call that major.

Yes, if you'd like to cherry pick to death, and move the goal posts by including PPR (and dynasty), and compare his 2011 numbers to what TEs did in 2012 for some reason, you can make it look like he gives you a major advantage. In reality, he simply hasn't done so for the most part.

This got started when Coop called Hernandez a "round 3-4 start up pick". And ppr is probably more common than non-ppr for dynasties -- hence FBG switching to ppr for dynasty rankings. So tone it down a bit.

Well, as long as you have concrete evidence like "ppr is probably more common", how can I argue?

 

[humpback]

For dynasty, I will take his nice points per game even if he only plays 10 games per year for me for the next DECADE (key word, decade).

He is the clear TE-3 for dynasty. Anyone disputing that is simply wrong. I realize fantasy is subjective and nothing is for certain, but if you draft a TE other than Gronk or Graham ahead of Hernandez in a dynasty draft this year, chances are you are not going to, and have probably never been successful at this game (regarding dynasty leagues) in your life.

Now add the fact that its QUITE possible he throws together some full seasons, in which case he probably takes you to a few title games.

If you don't want to draft or trade for him at his current market value, fine. Can't argue that. But if you don't rank him as your dynasty TE-3 then I have serious questions as to what the heck is going on with your thought process.

In redraft, well sure, that's a whole different ballgame, especially if it is POSSIBLE he misses time, which at this point does not look likely.

No one is even arguing that he isn't TE3 (in a dynasty), but he can be the TE 3 and still not provide a "major advantage" at the position.

First of all he is absolutely the 3rd TE in dynasty formats... In redraft I'd take him in the 3rd or 4th in ppr or maybe a rd later in non ppr just because when he is healthy he is a stud and an absolute advantage in leagues without flex spots and only 1 starting TE... The only caveat is that in redraft u need to save a spot down the road for a TE to fill in if/when he misses time... Consider it like he has 4 or 5 bye weeks... Some wont want to put up with that kind of thing but he provides enough of an advantage for me to take that chance... He missed a ton of games last yr but prior to that he missed a few games each yr... I liken his situation to Hakeem nicks... Tremendous talent and situation but you realize that they are both going to miss games... It's up to you to decide whether they are worth the headache... I feel like Hernandez is worth it to me

Where's the big advantage? Look at his ppg stats.

Concept Coop, on 16 Apr 2013 - 17:13, said:If we used his 2011 PPG, he would have been the #1 TE this year. That's an advantage over every single owner in your league. I'd call that major. Every set of dynasty rankings I respect has Hernandez in the top 3. That's an advantage over 75% of your league. I'd call that major.

Huh?So, we take his PPG from his career year, prorate it to 16 games, and then compare it to everyone else's total stats in a different year, regardless of whether they played 16 games, and come up with him as the #1 TE?Let's try again. If you use his career year (2011), only look at his PPG, and compare it to everyone else's PPG in 2012, he would end up as TE #3 (behind Gronk and Graham and a little ahead of Witten.)I don't dispute him as the current #3 TE, but he's hardly been a major advantage over everyone else. Adding a baseline guy (15-21) to his 2012 stats only gets you in the 7-11 range, which puts you at a disadvantage to half of your league.

 

[msommer]

Any news on what was acrually wrong with the shoulder?

 

[solorca]

Okay, tell me what "major" means to you? He provided zero advantage (which I think we all agree isn't open to interpretation), even on a PPG basis, over several TEs last season.

He played injured last year, even leaving a game on the first drive, giving him a 0. So if you're going to use his 2012 year end total, no, he didn't provide a major example. If we used his 2011 PPG, he would have been the #1 TE this year. That's an advantage over every single owner in your league. I'd call that major. Every set of dynasty rankings I respect have Hernandez in the top 3. That's an advantage over 75% of your league. I'd call that major.

Yes, if you'd like to cherry pick to death, and move the goal posts by including PPR (and dynasty), and compare his 2011 numbers to what TEs did in 2012 for some reason, you can make it look like he gives you a major advantage. In reality, he simply hasn't done so for the most part.

This got started when Coop called Hernandez a "round 3-4 start up pick". And ppr is probably more common than non-ppr for dynasties -- hence FBG switching to ppr for dynasty rankings. So tone it down a bit.

Well, as long as you have concrete evidence like "ppr is probably more common", how can I argue?

Well, it is. I tried to join a non-ppr dynasty league to diversify a bit, and it was nearly impossible. Non-ppr leagues are not the norm anymore, especially in dynasty (which is what the discussion was about, since he was talking about start-up picks).

 

[KellysHeroes]

lets get back on the subject, AH's health.

April 11th

Aaron Hernandez said he's focusing his offseason workouts toward staying healthy for a full season.
Hernandez has missed 10 games through three seasons. This offseason, he's living in Los Angeles to get away from distractions and has altered his workout regimen. "I'd say more attention to specific muscles instead of just doing the basic bench, squat and all that other stuff," he said. "I'd say I started a little earlier this year to maybe try to get through 16 games." Over the last two years (24 games played), Hernandez has averaged 5.4 catches for 58.0 yards and scored 12 touchdowns. He's going to have a monster year if he stays healthy. Apr 11 - 9:44 AM

Aaron Hernandez has rented a place in Los Angeles so he can work out with Tom Brady this offseason.
Cozying up to Brady can only be a good thing for Hernandez. He'll also be working with Brady's personal trainer, Alex Guerrero -- the man that oversaw Brady and Wes Welker's three successful knee rehabs. Entering his age-24 season, Hernandez is primed for an explosion if he can sustain health. He's racked up 5.4 catches for 58.0 yards and 12 touchdowns over his last 24 games despite often playing third fiddle to Rob Gronkowski and impending free agent Welker. Feb 5 - 11:46 AM
So did he get hurt while training w/ Brady for did he get hurt while he was focused on staying healthy for a full season?

 

[Sabertooth]

Concept Coop, on 16 Apr 2013 - 17:13, said:If we used his 2011 PPG, he would have been the #1 TE this year. That's an advantage over every single owner in your league. I'd call that major. Every set of dynasty rankings I respect has Hernandez in the top 3. That's an advantage over 75% of your league. I'd call that major.

Huh?So, we take his PPG from his career year, prorate it to 16 games, and then compare it to everyone else's total stats in a different year, regardless of whether they played 16 games, and come up with him as the #1 TE?Let's try again. If you use his career year (2011), only look at his PPG, and compare it to everyone else's PPG in 2012, he would end up as TE #3 (behind Gronk and Graham and a little ahead of Witten.)I don't dispute him as the current #3 TE, but he's hardly been a major advantage over everyone else. Adding a baseline guy (15-21) to his 2012 stats only gets you in the 7-11 range, which puts you at a disadvantage to half of your league.

If you think 2011 was an outlier, that's fine. I think that is what a healthy Hernandez is; that's why I use it. And if you're going to hint at the math - just do it. Adding baseline (which isn't 15-21) to his 2012 number in PPR formats, puts him at TE 6. And that's with the 0. As I have said the entire time, if you project him to continue to miss 2-6 games a year, and play 2-3 games on a bad wheel, he won't give you a major advantage. If you're agnostic about it, and he's healthy, he very clearly will.

are you replacing all other tight ends with baseline production too in that calc?

 

[Sabertooth]

lets get back on the subject, AH's health. April 11thAaron Hernandez said he's focusing his offseason workouts toward staying healthy for a full season.Hernandez has missed 10 games through three seasons. This offseason, he's living in Los Angeles to get away from distractions and has altered his workout regimen. "I'd say more attention to specific muscles instead of just doing the basic bench, squat and all that other stuff," he said. "I'd say I started a little earlier this year to maybe try to get through 16 games." Over the last two years (24 games played), Hernandez has averaged 5.4 catches for 58.0 yards and scored 12 touchdowns. He's going to have a monster year if he stays healthy. Apr 11 - 9:44 AM Aaron Hernandez has rented a place in Los Angeles so he can work out with Tom Brady this offseason.Cozying up to Brady can only be a good thing for Hernandez. He'll also be working with Brady's personal trainer, Alex Guerrero -- the man that oversaw Brady and Wes Welker's three successful knee rehabs. Entering his age-24 season, Hernandez is primed for an explosion if he can sustain health. He's racked up 5.4 catches for 58.0 yards and 12 touchdowns over his last 24 games despite often playing third fiddle to Rob Gronkowski and impending free agent Welker. Feb 5 - 11:46 AM So did he get hurt while training w/ Brady for did he get hurt while he was focused on staying healthy for a full season?

 

[Quibbler]

Any news on what was acrually wrong with the shoulder?

Surgery was a "minor scope". http://www.boston.com/sports/football/patriots/extra_points/2013/04/hernandez_had_m.html

That could be for a lot of things--labrum, rotator cuff, etc.. Recovery time estimates sounds like it was more than just a simple clean up of a bone spur, but not as bad as a torn tendon.