More WR Stats - 50% of your top 5 on avg (1 Viewer)

[Joe T]

It's interesting to look at the distribution of WR's rankings versus their number of seasons in the league.

Here's one look at the top 5 recievers in the league since 1990 vs. their number of years in the league. You will see the most popular year to be a top 5 WR is year 5. And year's 5,6, 7 make up slightly more than 50% of the top 5 WR's since 1990.

Year    # Rank in top 51           22           53              94              55             156             127             148              59              610            311            212            1 13           1What's interesting is how this shifts as you move out from top 5 to top 10 and on up to top 60. As you get higher in your rankings the average years in the league goes down.

Clearly dominant in the top 5 and even in the top ten are WR's in years 5-7. If we did the same chart as above for the top 10 you'd see that year 6 has the most hits in the top 10 since 1990 with 23 and year 7 is a close second with 22.

Year 5 has the most top 20 WR's since 1990 with 45, year 4 is close with 44.

If you look at WR's 31-60 since 1990, 50% have come from WR's in years 1,2,3, or 4.

Year 4 has the most hits in the top 60 with 126 followed by Year 3 with 117.

 

[Joe T]

wow I'm no good at the code function.

 

[LHUCKS]

all the more reason why Randy Moss is high risk this year.

Nice stat JoeT.

 

[joffer]

wow I'm no good at the code function.

join the club, is there a link to how to use that thing?

 

[CA_7]

Thanks for breaking it down.

A quick list of candidates*

Entering 7th

Laveranues Coles

Plaxico Burress

Jerry Porter

DJax

Entering 6th - Can see where that magical 5th year comes from with this list

Koren Robinson

Rod Gardner

Santana Moss

Reggie Wayne

Freddie Mitchell

Chris Chambers

Chad Johnson

Steve Smith

T.J. Houshmandzadeh

Entering 5th

Donte' Stallworth

Ashley Lelie

Javon Walker (technically 4th?)

Reche Caldwell

Antwaan Randle El

Antonio Bryant

Deion Branch

David Givens

*used draft data so might be missing FAs

 

[KnowledgeReignsSupreme]

wow I'm no good at the code function.

Took me a while to figure it out.

 

[KnowledgeReignsSupreme]

Entering 5th

Donte' Stallworth

Ashley Lelie

Javon Walker (technically 4th?)

Reche Caldwell

Antwaan Randle El

Antonio Bryant

Deion Branch

David Givens

*used draft data so might be missing FAs

It would be a tough sell on ANY of those guys at top 5.

 

[DrJ]

all the more reason why Randy Moss is high risk this year.

Nice stat JoeT.

Moss was one of the 2 that did it in year 1.One of the 5 in year 2.

One of the 9 in year 3.

One of the 5 in year 4.

I guess he was high risk in all of those years too...

These don't apply to superfreaks like Moss, Harrison, Owens, etc.

 

[Tau837]

Thanks for breaking it down.

A quick list of candidates*

Entering 7th

Laveranues Coles

Plaxico Burress

Jerry Porter

DJax

Entering 6th - Can see where that magical 5th year comes from with this list

Koren Robinson

Rod Gardner

Santana Moss

Reggie Wayne

Freddie Mitchell

Chris Chambers

Chad Johnson

Steve Smith

T.J. Houshmandzadeh

Entering 5th

Donte' Stallworth

Ashley Lelie

Javon Walker (technically 4th?)

Reche Caldwell

Antwaan Randle El

Antonio Bryant

Deion Branch

David Givens

*used draft data so might be missing FAs

This is more interesting than the last post about 1000 yard seasons (to me), but still I'm not sure this is telling us something we wouldn't have intuitively come to in our projections anyway. 50% of top 5 means 2 or 3. Chad Johnson likely would have been in most people's top 5, and Steve Smith would have been right behind him. So at most, most people might have missed one (assuming CJ & Smith perform as expected).More importantly, will anyone now take one of these guys and project him as top 5 because of this info (i.e., when they would not have done so already)? And, if so, how to apply this knowledge... take the highest rated guy you had outside of the top 5 and bump him up? I don't think so. I simply think this gives us confidence in being slightly more aggressive on some of the numbers of the 5-7 year guys.

 

[David Yudkin]

I suspect that part of what's skewing the results are WR that ranked Top 5 IN their 5th season predominently also then carried that over into years 6 and 7.

Harrison - check

Owens - check

Rice - check

Sharpe - check

That's 12 right there. Here are some others that had at least 2 Top 5s in those years . . .

Moss - 5 and 6

GClark - 6 and 7

Givins - 5 and 7

Ellard - 6 and 7

Irvin - 5 and 6

Reed - 5 and 7

RSmith - 6 and 7

That's 14 there. So between the two sets, that's 26 of the 43 (60%).

I find it interesting that there are a fair amount of Top 5 WR that have a great single season and then almost fall off the WR map, so to speak. IMO, I believe that there are more of those types than guys that continue on as WR studs (meaning several more Top 5 seasons).

The one Top 5 and then mostly done category has featured:

Terance Mathis (1 other Top 10 in 13 total seasons)

Robert Brooks (0 other Top 10 in 8 total seasons)

Michael Jackson (0 other Top 10 in 8 total seasons)

Tony Martin (0 other Top 10 in 12 total seasons)

Rob Moore (0 other Top 10 in 11 total seasons)

Keyshawn Johnson (0 other Top 10 in 10 total seasons)

Marcus Robinson (0 other Top 10 in 8 total seasons

Derrick Alexander (0 other Top 10 in 9 total seasons)

David Boston (0 other Top 10 in 7 total seasons)

Muhsin Muhammad (1 other Top 10 in 10 seasons)

Spotting these dream seasons in many cases is extremely hard to spot, and all I can say is that it happens on average once year or two.

 

[Liquid Tension]

It's interesting to look at the distribution of WR's rankings versus their number of seasons in the league.

Here's one look at the top 5 recievers in the league since 1990 vs. their number of years in the league.  You will see the most popular year to be a top 5 WR is year 5.  And year's 5,6, 7 make up slightly more than 50% of the top 5 WR's since 1990.

Year    # Rank in top 51             22             53              94              55             156             127             148              59              610            311            212            1 13           1What's interesting is how this shifts as you move out from top 5 to top 10 and on up to top 60.  As you get higher in your rankings the average years in the league goes down.Clearly dominant in the top 5 and even in the top ten are WR's in years 5-7.  If we did the same chart as above for the top 10 you'd see that year 6 has the most hits in the top 10 since 1990 with 23 and year 7 is a close second with 22.

Year 5 has the most top 20 WR's since 1990 with 45, year 4 is close with 44.

If you look at WR's 31-60 since 1990, 50% have come from WR's in years 1,2,3, or 4.

Year 4 has the most hits in the top 60 with 126 followed by Year 3 with 117.

Nice Job Joe Now we need to identify these guys for this year.I like looking at numbers via a chart (kind of like this).

Not sure how much it really tells us but it does open up many sub sets of questions I don't have time to answer

 

[CA_7]

Now we need to identify these guys for this year.