Most Likely to Break Emmitt's Rushing Record? (1 Viewer)

[cstu]

I noticed a lot of the active RB's from last year who are in the top 50 have retired or will retire soon (Bettis, Priest, Faulk) or are over 30 without a realistic shot at the record (Martin, Dillon, Barber, Taylor, Dunn). Ahman Green is still under 30 but probably won't be able to play long enough.

Edge, Alexander, LT and Portis seem to be the RB's with best combination of yards and age to take a shot the record. It would still take them staying healthy and playing at a high level until they are 35, but it doesn't seem out of the question that one of them could do it.

 

[David Yudkin]

I added "none of the above" option. Emmitt had 18,355 rushing yards. Edge is only half way there. IMO, we are a long ways away from any of the guys being a serious threat.

 

[Doug Drinen]

I added "none of the above" option. Emmitt had 18,355 rushing yards. Edge is only half way there. IMO, we are a long ways away from any of the guys being a serious threat.

How are we to interpret the none of the above option?The question is: who is most likely?

What does an answer of "none of the above" mean?

 

[David Yudkin]

I added "none of the above" option.  Emmitt had 18,355 rushing yards.  Edge is only half way there.  IMO, we are a long ways away from any of the guys being a serious threat.

How are we to interpret the none of the above option?The question is: who is most likely?

What does an answer of "none of the above" mean?

"None of these guys will break Emmitt's record." Maybe you like just plain "no one" as an option . . . or maybe "no one currently playing."I took "other" to mean that there is someone currently playing that someone should name as another option.

Hope this helps . . .

 

[turkishkamel]

i think the "other" category covers everything pretty well. the none of the above option seems out of place.

 

[Mapmaker]

Unless Portis changes Divisions and teams I can't see him being a serious threat, facing the Giants, Cowboys & Eagles D's twice per season doesn't seem like a formula for success to me ...

 

[Jackal]

DUH! Reggie Bush.....in half the time..........

 

[SSOG]

I voted Portis. I don't think he's LIKELY to break it, but I think he's MOST LIKELY to break it of all those listed. He's had the lightest workload in recent years, he has the best career YPC (which means he won't need quite as many carries to do it), he's got the highest yards-per-season average of the bunch (and was very young when drafted), which means he's ahead of the curve compared to the other 3... and I really don't think we've seen the best we're going to see from him yet.

 

[Doug Drinen]

"None of these guys will break Emmitt's record." Maybe you like just plain "no one" as an option . . . or maybe "no one currently playing."

I took "other" to mean that there is someone currently playing that someone should name as another option.

Hope this helps . . .

It doesn't. Of all the guys with a chance, one of them has to have the greatest chance. It may be small, but someone has to have the greatest chance, and it's either Edge, Alexander, LT, Portis, or other.

 

[cstu]

I added "none of the above" option. Emmitt had 18,355 rushing yards. Edge is only half way there. IMO, we are a long ways away from any of the guys being a serious threat.

I agree that the odds of any of them actually doing it is pretty low considering how difficult it is to stay healthy and effective that long. Just for comparison, Emmitt had 8956 yards through age 26 (6 seasons), while LT has only 7361 yards through age 26 (5 seasons). The interesting thing is that Emmitt never 1400 yards again and only over 1204 yards twice after he was 26.

 

[cstu]

I voted Portis. I don't think he's LIKELY to break it, but I think he's MOST LIKELY to break it of all those listed. He's had the lightest workload in recent years, he has the best career YPC (which means he won't need quite as many carries to do it), he's got the highest yards-per-season average of the bunch (and was very young when drafted), which means he's ahead of the curve compared to the other 3... and I really don't think we've seen the best we're going to see from him yet.

Longevity will be the biggest issue with Portis because he the one with age most on his side. IF he could play through age 34 (10 more years) he'd only need to average 1240 yards a season to do it.

 

[CalBear]

I went with LT, but there's a long way between 7K and 18K.

I don't think Emmitt's record is as unassailable as Rice's; I think it will be beaten sometime within the next 20 years, while Rice's is likely to last until there's a fundamental change in the game.

 

[BassNBrew]

The "mostly likely" is obviously none of the above. How could anyone vote for Portis being the mostly likely compared to the entire rest of the population of the world? Portis > world's population....I think not.

 

[Doug Drinen]

The "mostly likely" is obviously none of the above. How could anyone vote for Portis being the mostly likely compared to the entire rest of the population of the world? Portis > world's population....I think not.

I can't believe I'm so wrapped up in these semantics..."None of the above" != "Field"

"None of the above" means no one is the most likely. That is a logical impossibility, unless no one has any chance at all. But clearly these guys do have some small chance. Even though none of them are "likely," one of them has to be the "most likely."

The OP didn't ask "do you think anyone will break the record?" or "how likely is it that someone will break the record?" He asked who is "most likely to break the record?"

 

[David Yudkin]

The "mostly likely" is obviously none of the above.  How could anyone vote for Portis being the mostly likely compared to the entire rest of the population of the world?  Portis > world's population....I think not.

I can't believe I'm so wrapped up in these semantics..."None of the above" != "Field"

"None of the above" means no one is the most likely. That is a logical impossibility, unless no one has any chance at all. But clearly these guys do have some small chance. Even though none of them are "likely," one of them has to be the "most likely."

The OP didn't ask "do you think anyone will break the record?" or "how likely is it that someone will break the record?" He asked who is "most likely to break the record?"

If you don't like none of the above . . . then get rid of that as an option.

 

[BassNBrew]

The "mostly likely" is obviously none of the above.  How could anyone vote for Portis being the mostly likely compared to the entire rest of the population of the world?  Portis > world's population....I think not.

I can't believe I'm so wrapped up in these semantics..."None of the above" != "Field"

"None of the above" means no one is the most likely. That is a logical impossibility, unless no one has any chance at all. But clearly these guys do have some small chance. Even though none of them are "likely," one of them has to be the "most likely."

The OP didn't ask "do you think anyone will break the record?" or "how likely is it that someone will break the record?" He asked who is "most likely to break the record?"

What if you think the most likely person doesn't reside among those listed?

 

[CalBear]

What if you think the most likely person doesn't reside among those listed?

"Other".

 

[Doug Drinen]

What if you think the most likely person doesn't reside among those listed?

That's what "other" is for.

 

[David Yudkin]

What if you think the most likely person doesn't reside among those listed?

That's what "other" is for.

And what would one vote if an individual felt that no one will break the record? Other? That implies we think someone else will break the record.

 

[diesel7982]

Portis

Salex

LT

Other

Edge

 

[This_Is_Not_VRR]

I voted Portis. I don't think he's LIKELY to break it, but I think he's MOST LIKELY to break it of all those listed. He's had the lightest workload in recent years, he has the best career YPC (which means he won't need quite as many carries to do it), he's got the highest yards-per-season average of the bunch (and was very young when drafted), which means he's ahead of the curve compared to the other 3... and I really don't think we've seen the best we're going to see from him yet.

I disagree. Portis relies way too much on his speed to thrive later on his career. I question his long term durability as well. And it doesn't help that he plays in the brutal NFC East. Poor Portis is going to take an absolute beating over the next few years against such strong competition/defenses.I think a better case can be made for Shaun Alexander. He plays alongside one of the best tackles in NFL history in Walter Jones, he has a great blend of size and strength, he rarely takes a big hit, he relies more on his vision and cutback ability than he does raw speed, and he's never missed a game. Yes his age is an issue, but it's the only issue. Not only that, it could be several years before the rest of the teams in the NFC field legit defenses.

 

[Doug Drinen]

If you don't like none of the above . . . then get rid of that as an option.

Since it's nearly leading, I don't think that would be a popular move

 

[Doug Drinen]

And what would one vote if an individual felt that no one will break the record?

There is no will, this is about most likely.If you think the chances are like this:

Portis: .02%

Edge: .01%

Emmitt's record will stand forever: 99.97%

You would vote Portis.

If you think the chances are like this:

Emmitt's record will stand forever: 100%

you would abstain.

 

[David Yudkin]

And what would one vote if an individual felt that no one will break the record?

There is no will, this is about most likely.If you think the chances are like this:

Portis: .02%

Edge: .01%

Emmitt's record will stand forever: 99.97%

You would vote Portis.

If you think the chances are like this:

Emmitt's record will stand forever: 100%

you would abstain.

Then maybe "highly unlikely" should be an option.But I must admit . . . this is the most I've ever posted in a poll thread before. Now I feel all dirty.

 

[BigJim®]

The "mostly likely" is obviously none of the above. How could anyone vote for Portis being the mostly likely compared to the entire rest of the population of the world? Portis > world's population....I think not.

Not true. None of the above rejects "other," which already covers every living being not specifically named. The obvious answer is "other" if you believe there is a more likely surpasser (known or unknown) than those listed. "None of the Above" communicates an opinion that none of Edge, Portis, Alexander, LT, or any other living creature known or unknown is *most likely* to pass Emmitt. I agree with Drinen: One of Edge, Portis, LT, SA or everything else must be most likely to pass Emmitt.

 

[Doug Drinen]

Now I feel all dirty.

You and me both, brother.

 

[DaWidowMaker]

Curious why Jamal Lewis isn't mentioned (not a Ravens fan)....he turns 27 in August, has 6,669 yards and even though he's been a bit injured in his career he is consistent......

2000: 1364 avg 4.3

2001: 1327 avg 4.3

2002: 2066 avg 5.3

2003: 1006 avg 4.3

2004: 906 avg 3.4

 

[SSOG]

Curious why Jamal Lewis isn't mentioned (not a Ravens fan)....he turns 27 in August, has 6,669 yards and even though he's been a bit injured in his career he is consistent......

2000: 1364 avg 4.3

2001: 1327 avg 4.3

2002: 2066 avg 5.3

2003: 1006 avg 4.3

2004: 906 avg 3.4

Too much workload, too low of a ypc.I also disagree with people who are down on Portis because of the defenses he faces. First of all, studs produce regardless of the quality of the defenses they face. Second off, I feel like projecting who will be a good defense even 5 years from now is a pointless activity. Things change so much from year to year that, while it might be a tough slate this year, they might all be pushovers the next.

 

[David Yudkin]

Curious why Jamal Lewis isn't mentioned (not a Ravens fan)....he turns 27 in August, has 6,669 yards and even though he's been a bit injured in his career he is consistent......

2000: 1364 avg 4.3

2001: 1327 avg 4.3

2002: 2066 avg 5.3

2003: 1006 avg 4.3

2004: 906 avg 3.4

At 1,200 yards a season, he'd need 10 more years to get there. Do you really thing he could average that until he was 37? If we say he played 9 more years, he'd have to average roughly 1,350 yards or so and seeing how he's really had one season much above that I would think it is highly unlikely.Let's not forget that he's has already missed an entire season due to injury (the years listed here are wrong . . . 2001 he didn't play) and he's always a substance abuse risk. The last two years he barely got (and then didn't get) 1,000 yards.

Based on other RBs, if Lewis is like them he is on the last stretch of peak seasons and would be expected to start tailing off in the next few seasons--not do BETTER with age.

I personally don't see it, b ut more power to him if he can make a run.

 

[David Yudkin]

even though I got sidetracked on semantics of what options should or should not be in this poll, here's what we're looking at for these guys:

Edge - 9226 Yards - Born 8/1/1978 (28)

He's 9,129 yards away. If he averaged 1,300 yards a season, it would take him 7 years. How muh past 30 would we want to project him playing at an elite level given that he's already touched the ball 2,500+ times? (HINT: 2,500 touches is nornally the threshold that guys start to decline.)

Alexander - 7817 Yards - Born 8/30/1977 (29)

He's a year OLDER than James and 1,400 yards (basically a full season) behind. Using the same 1,300 yards per season average, it would take Alexander 8 years and change.

LT - 7361 Yards - Born 6/23/1979 (27)

LT is about 11,000 yards behind. He would need 8 and a half years at a pace of 1,300 yards per season. IIRC, he's touched the ball more than any other RB through 5 seasons he's played.

Portis - 5930 Yards - Born 9/1/1981 (25)

Portis needs almost 12,500 yards to catch up. He's also need to play almost 10 full seasons at an average of 1,300 yards to get there.

I am not so sure any of these guys will be able to play long enough to catch up. Edge has seen some serious injuries in the past (the others haven't), but one injury that would take any of these guys out of the lineup for most of a season would almost rule them out entirely in my book.

So if there was a "don't think any of them will get there" option, that's what I'd pick (even though which one says "best chance." If I was absolutely forced to pick one, I'd pick LT.

 

[Doug Drinen]

even though I got sidetracked on semantics of what options should or should not be in this poll, here's what we're looking at for these guys:

Edge - 9226 Yards - Born 8/1/1978 (28)

He's 9,129 yards away. If he averaged 1,300 yards a season, it would take him 7 years. How muh past 30 would we want to project him playing at an elite level given that he's already touched the ball 2,500+ times? (HINT: 2,500 touches is nornally the threshold that guys start to decline.)

Alexander - 7817 Yards - Born 8/30/1977 (29)

He's a year OLDER than James and 1,400 yards (basically a full season) behind. Using the same 1,300 yards per season average, it would take Alexander 8 years and change.

LT - 7361 Yards - Born 6/23/1979 (27)

LT is about 11,000 yards behind. He would need 8 and a half years at a pace of 1,300 yards per season. IIRC, he's touched the ball more than any other RB through 5 seasons he's played.

Portis - 5930 Yards - Born 9/1/1981 (25)

Portis needs almost 12,500 yards to catch up. He's also need to play almost 10 full seasons at an average of 1,300 yards to get there.

I am not so sure any of these guys will be able to play long enough to catch up. Edge has seen some serious injuries in the past (the others haven't), but one injury that would take any of these guys out of the lineup for most of a season would almost rule them out entirely in my book.

So if there was a "don't think any of them will get there" option, that's what I'd pick (even though which one says "best chance." If I was absolutely forced to pick one, I'd pick LT.

If you applied this kind of reasoning to Emmitt's chances of reaching 18,355 at any point in his 20s you would have reached the same conclusion. Of course it's unlikely for any one of these guys to do it. That's why it's a record. Calculations that assume normal career paths and aging patterns will always make things appear almost hopelessly impossible. But yet records do get broken.I'm not saying LT or Portis is likely to break the record. But each of them is about as likely to hit 18,355 as Emmitt was at the same point.

Through four years:

Player                 RSH   YD    AGEEric Dickerson        1465  6968    27Earl Campbell         1404  6457    27Terrell Davis         1343  6413    27Clinton Portis        1258  5930    25LaDainian Tomlinson   1363  5899    26Emmitt Smith          1262  5699    25Barry Sanders         1189  5674    25Eddie George          1360  5365    27Walter Payton         1179  5316    25Curtis Martin         1327  5086    26

Through five years:

Eric Dickerson       1748   8256    28LaDainian Tomlinson  1702   7361    27Emmitt Smith         1630   7183    26Earl Campbell        1561   6995    28Walter Payton        1548   6926    26Eddie George         1763   6874    28Barry Sanders        1432   6789    26Terrell Davis        1410   6624    28Curtis Martin        1694   6550    27Jim Brown            1269   6463    26Ricky Williams       1589   6354    27

 

[David Yudkin]

even though I got sidetracked on semantics of what options should or should not be in this poll, here's what we're looking at for these guys:

Edge - 9226 Yards - Born 8/1/1978 (28)

He's 9,129 yards away.  If he averaged 1,300 yards a season, it would take him 7 years.  How muh past 30 would we want to project him playing at an elite level given that he's already touched the ball 2,500+ times?  (HINT: 2,500 touches is nornally the threshold that guys start to decline.)

Alexander - 7817 Yards - Born 8/30/1977 (29)

He's a year OLDER than James and 1,400 yards (basically a full season) behind.  Using the same 1,300 yards per season average, it would take Alexander 8 years and change.

LT - 7361 Yards - Born 6/23/1979 (27)

LT is about 11,000 yards behind.  He would need 8 and a half years at a pace of 1,300 yards per season.  IIRC, he's touched the ball more than any other RB through 5 seasons he's played.

Portis - 5930 Yards - Born 9/1/1981 (25)

Portis needs almost 12,500 yards to catch up.  He's also need to play almost 10 full seasons at an average of 1,300 yards to get there.

I am not so sure any of these guys will be able to play long enough to catch up.  Edge has seen some serious injuries in the past (the others haven't), but one injury that would take any of these guys out of the lineup for most of a season would almost rule them out entirely in my book.

So if there was a "don't think any of them will get there" option, that's what I'd pick (even though which one says "best chance."  If I was absolutely forced to pick one, I'd pick LT.

If you applied this kind of reasoning to Emmitt's chances of reaching 18,355 at any point in his 20s you would have reached the same conclusion. Of course it's unlikely for any one of these guys to do it. That's why it's a record. Calculations that assume normal career paths and aging patterns will always make things appear almost hopelessly impossible. But yet records do get broken.I'm not saying LT or Portis is likely to break the record. But each of them is about as likely to hit 18,355 as Emmitt was at the same point.

Through four years:

Player                 RSH   YD    AGEEric Dickerson        1465  6968    27Earl Campbell         1404  6457    27Terrell Davis         1343  6413    27Clinton Portis        1258  5930    25LaDainian Tomlinson   1363  5899    26Emmitt Smith          1262  5699    25Barry Sanders         1189  5674    25Eddie George          1360  5365    27Walter Payton         1179  5316    25Curtis Martin         1327  5086    26

Through five years:

Eric Dickerson       1748   8256    28LaDainian Tomlinson  1702   7361    27Emmitt Smith         1630   7183    26Earl Campbell        1561   6995    28Walter Payton        1548   6926    26Eddie George         1763   6874    28Barry Sanders        1432   6789    26Terrell Davis        1410   6624    28Curtis Martin        1694   6550    27Jim Brown            1269   6463    26Ricky Williams       1589   6354    27

Obviously anything is possible, and where any of these guys rank on the above lists probably is not that important. The real issue here is who (if any) RB can play long enough to get the carries, avoid injury, and stay productive deep into their 30s. Certainly 99.9% won't make it. But there always is that 0.1% chance that someone could do it. Impossible? No. Somehow picking the actual guy to do it at some point now or in the future. Not impossible but improbable.

 

[Doug Drinen]

But there always is that 0.1% chance that someone could do it. Impossible? No. Somehow picking the actual guy to do it at some point now or in the future. Not impossible but improbable.

Did Emmitt have a .1% chance when he was 26 years old? I'm wondering how records ever get broken.

 

[-OZ-]

Surprised to see nobody's chimed in with "Larry Johnson" yet. Not that he will do it, but I'd think someone would think he's more likely.

I voted Alexander, but I don't see it happening with any of these.

 

[David Yudkin]

But there always is that 0.1% chance that someone could do it.  Impossible?  No.  Somehow picking the actual guy to do it at some point now or in the future.  Not impossible but improbable.

Did Emmitt have a .1% chance when he was 26 years old? I'm wondering how records ever get broken.

Well, based on the Data Dominator, there have been 1,521 RB that have suited up since 1960.If Emmitt = 1/1521 that equals 0.0657 of a percent. So you're right, 0.1% was probably generous.

You're the math talking numbers guy. I have no idea what Emmitt's chances were at 26. All I said was that there was a 0.1% chance that SOMEONE could do it (undefined).

 

[SSOG]

But there always is that 0.1% chance that someone could do it. Impossible? No. Somehow picking the actual guy to do it at some point now or in the future. Not impossible but improbable.

Did Emmitt have a .1% chance when he was 26 years old? I'm wondering how records ever get broken.

Agreed. If the chances are really so small, then why have Barry Sanders, Emmitt Smith, and Walter Peyton all either held the record or been a serious threat to take the record at some point in the last 20 years?

 

[cstu]

Surprised to see nobody's chimed in with "Larry Johnson" yet. Not that he will do it, but I'd think someone would think he's more likely.

I voted Alexander, but I don't see it happening with any of these.

LJ is the same age as LT but only has 2400 yards. Whoever breaks the record will need to have started as a rookie no older than 22.

 

[SSOG]

Surprised to see nobody's chimed in with "Larry Johnson" yet. Not that he will do it, but I'd think someone would think he's more likely.

I voted Alexander, but I don't see it happening with any of these.

Larry Johnson is almost 2 years older than Clinton Portis, and over 3500 yards behind. I would be surprised if anyone thought he had a better chance at the record than Portis did.

 

[BigRed]

GDB B Sanders retiring early. If he hadn't, we'd be talking about if it's even mildly possible for someone else to crack 20,000 yds.

 

[David Yudkin]

Surprised to see nobody's chimed in with "Larry Johnson" yet. Not that he will do it, but I'd think someone would think he's more likely.

I voted Alexander, but I don't see it happening with any of these.

Johnson will be 27 this year and has 2,416 rushing yards. That's about 16,000 yards short. At an average of a near impossible 1,500 yards per season, he'd need 11 seasons and would have to play at that level until he was 38.

 

[cstu]

But there always is that 0.1% chance that someone could do it.  Impossible?  No.  Somehow picking the actual guy to do it at some point now or in the future.  Not impossible but improbable.

Did Emmitt have a .1% chance when he was 26 years old? I'm wondering how records ever get broken.

Well, based on the Data Dominator, there have been 1,521 RB that have suited up since 1960.If Emmitt = 1/1521 that equals 0.0657 of a percent. So you're right, 0.1% was probably generous.

You're the math talking numbers guy. I have no idea what Emmitt's chances were at 26. All I said was that there was a 0.1% chance that SOMEONE could do it (undefined).

Any RB that gets 6000 yards in their first 5 years is going to have better than a .01% chance. Emmitt put the record much farther out of reach than Payton's, but someone will stay healthy and play long enough to get a shot at it. The front runners IMO are LT and Portis.

 

[-OZ-]

Surprised to see nobody's chimed in with "Larry Johnson" yet. Not that he will do it, but I'd think someone would think he's more likely.

I voted Alexander, but I don't see it happening with any of these.

Johnson will be 27 this year and has 2,416 rushing yards. That's about 16,000 yards short. At an average of a near impossible 1,500 yards per season average, he'd need 11 seasons and would have to play at that level until he was 38.

Notice I didn't vote "other".I probably shouldn't have voted Alexander either, as he'll need to average 1500 yards for the next 7 years, putting him at 36.

Can I change my answer to Adrian Peterson?

ETA: I voted based on a prior discussion I had, forgetting that it was Emmitt's TD record that we came to conclude Alexander has the best chance to break.

 

[David Yudkin]

But there always is that 0.1% chance that someone could do it.  Impossible?  No.  Somehow picking the actual guy to do it at some point now or in the future.  Not impossible but improbable.

Did Emmitt have a .1% chance when he was 26 years old? I'm wondering how records ever get broken.

Well, based on the Data Dominator, there have been 1,521 RB that have suited up since 1960.If Emmitt = 1/1521 that equals 0.0657 of a percent. So you're right, 0.1% was probably generous.

You're the math talking numbers guy. I have no idea what Emmitt's chances were at 26. All I said was that there was a 0.1% chance that SOMEONE could do it (undefined).

Any RB that gets 6000 yards in their first 5 years is going to have better than a .01% chance. Emmitt put the record much farther out of reach than Payton's, but someone will stay healthy and play long enough to get a shot at it. The front runners IMO are LT and Portis.

Again, I was not looking at anyone at a certain age or a certain amount of yardage at a certian point in his career or any of that. My point was that any RB entering the league would have a 0.1% chance (or less) of breaking the record.

 

[DaWidowMaker]

In Jamal's defense he didn't have a full off season to prepare last year and I'm sure if he did he could have easily topped 1100 yards. With McNair onboard and those WR's/TE I don't think his load will be as large (Mike Anderson). The fact remains that he is the #1 RB in Balt and will turn 27 right before the season begins...whose to say that he can't have another banner year with a full off season of training behind him...I'll go on record to say that he will end up with better career numbers than Edge(barrring injury).

 

[David Yudkin]

In Jamal's defense he didn't have a full off season to prepare last year and I'm sure if he did he could have easily topped 1100 yards. With McNair onboard and those WR's/TE I don't think his load will be as large (Mike Anderson). The fact remains that he is the #1 RB in Balt and will turn 27 right before the season begins...whose to say that he can't have another banner year with a full off season of training behind him...I'll go on record to say that he will end up with better career numbers than Edge(barrring injury).

Lewis is a year younger than James and is 2,557 yards behind Edge. I reserve the right to see what James does in Arizona (I think he takes a hit in production), but up until now Lewis had one huge season (well no duh) but Edge has had 4 seasons with 1,500 rushing yards.I personally think Lewis' 2004 season was the exception not the rule and his other seasons are more indicitative as to what his baseline should be. (EXHIBIT A: his ypc in that season was a full yard higher than his other seasons.) We'll certainly find out . . .

 

[Bri]

Portis averages like 1300-1350 yards per year thus far.

I worry about LT and Edge burning out. For some reason I think Portis will/can sustain his current level for a long while.

 

[KnowledgeReignsSupreme]

Based on his age, SA looks to have the worst shot out of everyone on that list. He's 1400 yards behind Edge and a year older. Emmitt came into the league at 21, compared to SA's 23. At the age SA came into the NFL, Emmitt already had logged 2500 rushing yards.

Edge came into the league at the right time, but already wasted two of his prime years with injuries. He's only 900 yards off the pace though.

Of all the guy's listed, I'd say Portis has the BEST chance followed by LT.

I think we all agree that the chances are slim that any one of them will do it, but Portis has the best chance right now since he is already ahead of where Sanders and Emmitt were at 24.

In order to break the record you need three things:

1) Come into the league at 21.

2) Not miss any significant time before 30.

3) Be good enough to hang on through the early 30s.

Portis

LT

Edge

Alexander

 

[David Yudkin]

Since this is turning into an interesting topic . . .

Through age 21:1 Edgerrin James 15532 Clinton Portis 1508 3 Barry Sanders 1470 4 Jerome Bettis 1429 5 Jamal Lewis 1364 6 Marshall Faulk 1282 7 Rashaan Salaam 10748 Emmitt Smith 937 9 Walter Payton 679 10 Steven Jackson 673

Through age 22:1 Edgerrin James 3262 2 Clinton Portis 3099 3 Barry Sanders 2774 4 Emmitt Smith 2500 5 Jerome Bettis 2454 6 Marshall Faulk 2360 7 Walter Payton 2069 8 Natrone Means 1995 9 Steven Jackson 1719 10 Ottis Anderson 1605

Through age 23:1 Clinton Portis 4414 2 Barry Sanders 4322 3 Emmitt Smith 4213 4 Edgerrin James 39245 Walter Payton 3921 6 Jerome Bettis 30917 Ottis Anderson 2957 8 Marshall Faulk 2947 9 LaDainian Tomlinson 2919 10 Natrone Means 2725

Through age 24:1 Clinton Portis 5930 2 Emmitt Smith 5699 3 Barry Sanders 5674 4 Walter Payton 5316 5 Edgerrin James 4913 6 Jamal Lewis 4757 7 LaDainian Tomlinson 4564 8 Jerome Bettis 4522 9 Ottis Anderson 4333 10 Marshall Faulk 4001

Through age 25:1 Emmitt Smith 7183 2 Walter Payton 6926 3 Barry Sanders 6789 4 Jerome Bettis 6187 5 Edgerrin James 6172 6 Clinton Portis 5930 7 LaDainian Tomlinson 58998 Jamal Lewis 5763 9 Marshall Faulk 5320 10 Eric Dickerson 5147

Through age 26:1 Emmitt Smith 8956 2 Barry Sanders 8672 3 Walter Payton 8386 4 Edgerrin James 7720 5 Jerome Bettis 7372 6 LaDainian Tomlinson 7361 7 Eric Dickerson 6968 8 Marshall Faulk 6701 9 Jamal Lewis 6669 10 Curtis Martin 6550

Through age 27:1 Barry Sanders 10172 2 Emmitt Smith 10160 3 Walter Payton 9608 4 Edgerrin James 9226 5 Jerome Bettis 8463 6 Eric Dickerson 8256 7 Marshall Faulk 8060 8 Curtis Martin 7754 9 Thurman Thomas 7631 10 Ottis Anderson 7364

Through age 28:1 Barry Sanders 11725 2 Emmitt Smith 11234 3 Walter Payton 10204 4 Eric Dickerson 9915 5 Jerome Bettis 9804 6 Marshall Faulk 9442 7 Curtis Martin 9267 8 Edgerrin James 9226 9 Thurman Thomas 8724 10 Earl Campbell 8296

 

[Bri]

hey david, see portis 24 and 25

is that an oops?

 

[David Yudkin]

hey david, see portis 24 and 25

is that an oops?

It's gotta be. Data Dominator gave the info . . . obviously it's not accurate. I'll get Doug to look into it.