Most Over Rated player of '07 (1 Viewer)

[Joe T]

June 27th, 2007

Maroney is the #10 overall concensus player according to the FBG expert redraft rankings.

I'll submit that this is way too high for this guy.

Here are the reasons he should be dropped to the mid to late second round:

1. He can't carry the full load in New England. He doesn't have the size to be a 300+ carry back which puts him at a disadvantage to perform up to this position in the draft.

2. New England is going to be extremely pass happy this season with all their new receivers so again, Maroney will not have the opportunity to perform to this high of a position.

3. He had less than 1,000 total yards last year and has no history of being able to produce more.

I expect him to be moving down in the coming weeks.

 

[duaneok66]

4) at last check , he isn't even healthy . . .

 

[David Yudkin]

You missed the most glaring concern . . . that his shoulder is still an issue. It has been relayed to me from people close to the team that in their opinion if the season started today Maroney would not be able to go.

That may not matter come September as we hit July 1st, but it certainly is something to watch.

 

[Joe T]

You missed the most glaring concern . . . that his shoulder is still an issue. It has been relayed to me from people close to the team that in their opinion if the season started today Maroney would not be able to go.That may not matter come September as we hit July 1st, but it certainly is something to watch.

So, you're saying you agree that he's overrated at #10 over all?

 

[phthalatemagic]

You missed the most glaring concern . . . that his shoulder is still an issue. It has been relayed to me from people close to the team that in their opinion if the season started today Maroney would not be able to go.That may not matter come September as we hit July 1st, but it certainly is something to watch.

So, you're saying you agree that he's overrated at #10 over all?

I think what he was saying is that you missed the best reason to make the overrated claim.

 

[fridayfrenzy]

June 27th, 2007

Addai is the #8 overall concensus player according to the FBG expert redraft rankings.

I'll submit that this is way too high for this guy.

Here are the reasons he should be dropped to the mid to late second round:

1. He can't carry the full load in Indy. He doesn't have the size to be a 300+ carry back which puts him at a disadvantage to perform up to this position in the draft.

2. Indy is going to be extremely pass happy this season with all their receivers so again, Addai will not have the opportunity to perform to this high of a position.

I expect him to be moving down in the coming weeks.

Same could be said for other players.....see fixed above.Weak arguments.

 

[LionsFan78]

3. He had less than 1,000 total yards last year and has no history of being able to produce more.

Agree that he's overrated at #10. But where are you getting this "no history" argument? Not from his rookie season, splitting time with Dillon. And can't be from Minnesota, where he never produced worse than 1100 yards/10 TDs in a season.

 

[Joe T]

You missed the most glaring concern . . . that his shoulder is still an issue. It has been relayed to me from people close to the team that in their opinion if the season started today Maroney would not be able to go.That may not matter come September as we hit July 1st, but it certainly is something to watch.

So, you're saying you agree that he's overrated at #10 over all?

I think what he was saying is that you missed the best reason to make the overrated claim.

I disagree that this is the biggest reason he is over rated.That said, I would like to discuss whether or not others agree/disagree that this guy is the most overrated player on the board as of today.

 

[duaneok66]

3. He had less than 1,000 total yards last year and has no history of being able to produce more.

Agree that he's overrated at #10. But where are you getting this "no history" argument? Besides his rookie year, splitting time with Dillon, he never produced worse than 1100 yards/10 TDs @ Minnesota.

he never carried the load in Minnesota; he always split time . . . mostly with Barber I think . . .

 

[Joe T]

June 27th, 2007Addai is the #8 overall concensus player according to the FBG expert redraft rankings.I'll submit that this is way too high for this guy.Here are the reasons he should be dropped to the mid to late second round:1. He can't carry the full load in Indy. He doesn't have the size to be a 300+ carry back which puts him at a disadvantage to perform up to this position in the draft.2. Indy is going to be extremely pass happy this season with all their receivers so again, Addai will not have the opportunity to perform to this high of a position.I expect him to be moving down in the coming weeks.

Same could be said for other players.....see fixed above.Weak arguments.

When you remove one of the arguments... it does look weaker.But Addai was at 1400+ yards last year and significantly more touches. The two guys history's are completely different.Not only that, but throw in what each did in the playoffs and you'll figure out why Addai is ranked appropriately. Please do not edit my posts going forward.

 

[dgreen]

Most concerns seem to be about his health and durability. However, when doing projections and assuming a 16-game season, I have no problem projecting Mauroney around #10 (about 1300+ yards and 10 TDs). From there, of course, you make adjustments in your rankings based on injury concerns. How many spots would I drop him? Not sure. Missing just three games could drop him from 10 to 25.

I don't have any concerns when it comes to NE being pass happy. I think it comes down to how many games you think NE will win. If they win, there will be plenty rushing attempts for Maroney. I think they'll win their fair share.

 

[David Yudkin]

You missed the most glaring concern . . . that his shoulder is still an issue. It has been relayed to me from people close to the team that in their opinion if the season started today Maroney would not be able to go.That may not matter come September as we hit July 1st, but it certainly is something to watch.

So, you're saying you agree that he's overrated at #10 over all?

At this point yes, but as I said come September his health may not be as much as a concern as it is TODAY. As for you post, I mostly agree with Item 1 (but for different reasons). I suspect that the Pats will not overwork Maroney to try to keep him fresh throughout the season. If they get far ahead, there is no point in having Maroney get 10 fourth quarter carries.As for Item 2, I do see the Patriots passing far more than in the past but that does not automatically equate to fewer rushing attempts. Incompletions will stop the clock, so they could have more passing attemtps without losing a ton of rushing attempts.With regard to #3, that one carries little weight for me. Frank Gore never proved anything prior to last year either.I also have other reasons to speculate that Maroney is SLIGHTLY overrated, most notably the argument that Dillon 06 + Maroney 06 = Maroney 07. That is faulty logic. The other one is that Maroney is a lock for a ton of TD. There have been at least two seasons in the Brady era where the team mustered 9 rushing TD as a team for the entire season. TD are hard to predict, but slotting him for 15 TD as a given is a big stretch in my book.

 

[David Yudkin]

3. He had less than 1,000 total yards last year and has no history of being able to produce more.

Agree that he's overrated at #10. But where are you getting this "no history" argument? Besides his rookie year, splitting time with Dillon, he never produced worse than 1100 yards/10 TDs @ Minnesota.

he never carried the load in Minnesota; he always split time . . . mostly with Barber I think . . .

+------------------------+----+--------------------+-------------+-------------+|  YR	Team			|  G | CMP ATT  PYD TD IN | RSH   YD TD | REC   YD TD |+------------------------+----+--------------------+-------------+-------------+| 2003 Minnesota		 | 13 |   0   0	0  0  0 | 162 1121 10 |   1   11  0 || 2004 Minnesota		 | 12 |   0   0	0  0  0 | 217 1348 12 |   3   16  0 || 2005 Minnesota		 | 11 |   0   1	0  0  0 | 281 1464 10 |  17  170  1 |+------------------------+----+--------------------+-------------+-------------+

 

[fridayfrenzy]

June 27th, 2007Addai is the #8 overall concensus player according to the FBG expert redraft rankings.I'll submit that this is way too high for this guy.Here are the reasons he should be dropped to the mid to late second round:1. He can't carry the full load in Indy. He doesn't have the size to be a 300+ carry back which puts him at a disadvantage to perform up to this position in the draft.2. Indy is going to be extremely pass happy this season with all their receivers so again, Addai will not have the opportunity to perform to this high of a position.I expect him to be moving down in the coming weeks.

Same could be said for other players.....see fixed above.Weak arguments.

When you remove one of the arguments... it does look weaker.But Addai was at 1400+ yards last year and significantly more touches. The two guys history's are completely different.Not only that, but throw in what each did in the playoffs and you'll figure out why Addai is ranked appropriately. Please do not edit my posts going forward.

So Addai at #8 is fine with you because he had 400 more yards last year. Your last argument is an arbitrary number of yards. What makes 1000 yards the make or break point for a RB to be overrated? Once again...weak arguments. Either apply your weak arguments consistently over all players, or include other players in your reasoning for having them overrated or........come up with a better argument to why Maroney is overrated.

 

[Joe T]

With regard to #3, that one carries little weight for me. Frank Gore never proved anything prior to last year either.

Your comparison to Gore carries little weight for me.Gore was not ranked #10.A better comparison would be my most over rated player of '06 = Ronnie Brown.

 

[Zuma]

people don't really follow the fbg rankings do they...

i mean the dominator is cool and all, but give bagger a pm and you can get some quality rankings...

 

[David Yudkin]

With regard to #3, that one carries little weight for me. Frank Gore never proved anything prior to last year either.

Your comparison to Gore carries little weight for me.Gore was not ranked #10.A better comparison would be my most over rated player of '06 = Ronnie Brown.

My point was that there will be times where players that never did it before actually do do it. For example, Chester Taylor last year or the year before. No, they weren't the #10 preseason ranked RB but they still were able to do very well.Seeing how we are essentially on the same side of the fence on this one, let's leave it at that . . .

 

[AB in DC]

Agree that the shoulder is a huge issue. Even if he's healthy by week one, I'd have a hard time believing that it couldn't cause problems during the season, and I wouldn't project 300 carries at this point.

That said, I don't know why you think the Pats will be pass-happy. If they can run the ball, they'll run the ball. If their passing game is as strong as you think it is, they will be ahead in the fourth quarter of most games and will want to grind out the clock.

As for "no history of being able to produce more", you can say that about every young player. If all you want is proven veterans, you're going to get stuck with players on the downside of their career. Jamal Lewis has a history of being able to produce more, but would you draft him in the top 20?

 

[duaneok66]

With regard to #3, that one carries little weight for me. Frank Gore never proved anything prior to last year either.

Your comparison to Gore carries little weight for me.Gore was not ranked #10.A better comparison would be my most over rated player of '06 = Ronnie Brown.

off topic Joe T - is that a picture of the old Pitfall game on Atari 2600 - that Activision game was a classic . . .

 

[Joe T]

So Addai at #8 is fine with you because he had 400 more yards last year. Your last argument is an arbitrary number of yards. What makes 1000 yards the make or break point for a RB to be overrated? Once again...weak arguments. Either apply your weak arguments consistently over all players, or include other players in your reasoning for having them overrated or........come up with a better argument to why Maroney is overrated.

Do you agree or disagree that Maroney is overrated?

 

[dgreen]

I also have other reasons to speculate that Maroney is SLIGHTLY overrated, most notably the argument that Dillon 06 + Maroney 06 = Maroney 07. That is faulty logic.

I agree that is faulty logic, but how faulty?NE has averaged 433 rushes/season by their RBs the last three years. Last year, Maroney accounted for 40% of the RB rushes. Dillon has accounted for 73%, 53% (missed four games), and 46% (shared with Maroney) of the RB rushes the last three years.So, what percentage of the carries (assuming health) do expect from Maroney? 65%? If so, using 433 carries, that gives him 282 carries. I think it's pretty safe to assume he'll take most of Dillon's receptions from last year, giving him about 35 receptions. Give him 4.2 yds/c and 7 yds/r and you get 1428 yards of offense.

 

[Warpig]

3. He had less than 1,000 total yards last year and has no history of being able to produce more.

Agree that he's overrated at #10. But where are you getting this "no history" argument? Besides his rookie year, splitting time with Dillon, he never produced worse than 1100 yards/10 TDs @ Minnesota.

he never carried the load in Minnesota; he always split time . . . mostly with Barber I think . . .

+------------------------+----+--------------------+-------------+-------------+|  YR	Team			|  G | CMP ATT  PYD TD IN | RSH   YD TD | REC   YD TD |+------------------------+----+--------------------+-------------+-------------+| 2003 Minnesota		 | 13 |   0   0	0  0  0 | 162 1121 10 |   1   11  0 || 2004 Minnesota		 | 12 |   0   0	0  0  0 | 217 1348 12 |   3   16  0 || 2005 Minnesota		 | 11 |   0   1	0  0  0 | 281 1464 10 |  17  170  1 |+------------------------+----+--------------------+-------------+-------------+

 

[ImTheScientist]

You missed the most glaring concern . . . that his shoulder is still an issue. It has been relayed to me from people close to the team that in their opinion if the season started today Maroney would not be able to go.

That may not matter come September as we hit July 1st, but it certainly is something to watch.

So, you're saying you agree that he's overrated at #10 over all?

I think what he was saying is that you missed the best reason to make the overrated claim.

I disagree that this is the biggest reason he is over rated.That said, I would like to discuss whether or not others agree/disagree that this guy is the most overrated player on the board as of today.

I tend not to worry about the projected 1st round picks in Redraft leagues. ADP is very accurate in deciding where these 1st round picks will go, so depending on where you pick you either will or will not have a shot at drafting this player. The rounds/players I am more concerned with are those in rounds 3-16.

 

[wadegarrett]

June 27th, 2007Maroney is the #10 overall concensus player according to the FBG expert redraft rankings.I'll submit that this is way too high for this guy.Here are the reasons he should be dropped to the mid to late second round:1. He can't carry the full load in New England. He doesn't have the size to be a 300+ carry back which puts him at a disadvantage to perform up to this position in the draft.2. New England is going to be extremely pass happy this season with all their new receivers so again, Maroney will not have the opportunity to perform to this high of a position.3. He had less than 1,000 total yards last year and has no history of being able to produce more.I expect him to be moving down in the coming weeks.

I heard similar things about Frank Gore in '06.

 

[fridayfrenzy]

So Addai at #8 is fine with you because he had 400 more yards last year. Your last argument is an arbitrary number of yards. What makes 1000 yards the make or break point for a RB to be overrated? Once again...weak arguments. Either apply your weak arguments consistently over all players, or include other players in your reasoning for having them overrated or........come up with a better argument to why Maroney is overrated.

Do you agree or disagree that Maroney is overrated?

Do you agree or disagree that your arguments are weak for trying to show Maroney is overrated?

 

[Cowtippers]

I think adding a % of Dillon's 2006 stats to figure Maroney's projected stats for 2007 is a good starting point. Willie Parker went thru much of the same issues last season taking over for the retired J. Bettis. If Maroney is healthy come Sept.....I think he will justify his top 10 ranking.

 

[dgreen]

A better comparison would be my most over rated player of '06 = Ronnie Brown.

I agree that's a good comparison.However, pretty much the only reason Brown ended up beign over rated is because he missed three games. If he plays those three games, he likely ends up as RB10. I believe his ADP was about RB7. That's not a huge difference.Unfortunately, Brown missed weeks 13, 14, and 15, which is crunch time in most leagues. If his 3 missed games were earlier, he may very well have been worth a top 10 pick despite being RB25 in season totals.

 

[Joe T]

Lol at everyone pointing to the one guy that broke out.

Again, Gore was not over rated last year. He wasn't a top 10 over all pick by anyone.

Do you guys not remember the Ronnie Brown incident of '06?

What about the McGahee debacles of '04 and '05?

Kevan Barlow anyone?

I'm talking about a guy who is being ranked top 10 here. Not a guy that is going later and out performs his pick.

 

[David Yudkin]

I also have other reasons to speculate that Maroney is SLIGHTLY overrated, most notably the argument that Dillon 06 + Maroney 06 = Maroney 07. That is faulty logic.

I agree that is faulty logic, but how faulty?NE has averaged 433 rushes/season by their RBs the last three years. Last year, Maroney accounted for 40% of the RB rushes. Dillon has accounted for 73%, 53% (missed four games), and 46% (shared with Maroney) of the RB rushes the last three years.So, what percentage of the carries (assuming health) do expect from Maroney? 65%? If so, using 433 carries, that gives him 282 carries. I think it's pretty safe to assume he'll take most of Dillon's receptions from last year, giving him about 35 receptions. Give him 4.2 yds/c and 7 yds/r and you get 1428 yards of offense.

This was my breakdown of the Pats offense about a month ago . . .RUSHINGMaroney 280-1150-11Morris 75-285-2Faulk 50-220-2Evans 25-100-0TBrady 35-65-1Hairston 10-50-0475-1870-16RECEIVINGMoss 70-1075-10Stallworth 45-810-8Watson 40-560-3Welker 40-440-2Caldwell 25-300-2Thomas 20-260-1Faulk 35-240-2Maroney 25-200-1Brown 15-180-1Morris 10-60-0Gaffney 5-60-0Mills 5-60-1Hairston 5-40-0KBrady 5-40-0Evans 5-25-0350-4350-31That would get Maroney just north of 200 fantasy points and just in the top 10. Admittedly, both the team totals and Maroney totals appear high to me.I would guess that if his health remains an issue that I would reduce his workload and production by 10%. The problem is, depending upon the individual season, that could drop him 1 or 2 spots in the rankings or even 10 spots if it's a year with a lot of backs with similar production.

 

[Joe T]

Do you agree or disagree that your arguments are weak for trying to show Maroney is overrated?

disagree.

 

[Joe T]

I think adding a % of Dillon's 2006 stats to figure Maroney's projected stats for 2007 is a good starting point. Willie Parker went thru much of the same issues last season taking over for the retired J. Bettis. If Maroney is healthy come Sept.....I think he will justify his top 10 ranking.

This is the same thing people were doing last year for Ronnie Brown via Ricky Williams.

 

[David Yudkin]

Lol at everyone pointing to the one guy that broke out.Again, Gore was not over rated last year. He wasn't a top 10 over all pick by anyone.Do you guys not remember the Ronnie Brown incident of '06?What about the McGahee debacles of '04 and '05?Kevan Barlow anyone?I'm talking about a guy who is being ranked top 10 here. Not a guy that is going later and out performs his pick.

You and I have generally agreed a lot on RB. As we all learned, Barlow had issues that stemmed way beyond him in terms of the personnel lost by the 49ers. Even if he had been more established, I doubt he would have fared any better.

 

[fridayfrenzy]

Do you agree or disagree that your arguments are weak for trying to show Maroney is overrated?

disagree.

So then you also think Addai is overrated. Just trying to clear things up.

 

[Obie Wan]

You missed the most glaring concern . . . that his shoulder is still an issue. It has been relayed to me from people close to the team that in their opinion if the season started today Maroney would not be able to go.That may not matter come September as we hit July 1st, but it certainly is something to watch.

So, you're saying you agree that he's overrated at #10 over all?

I think what he was saying is that you missed the best reason to make the overrated claim.

I disagree that this is the biggest reason he is over rated.That said, I would like to discuss whether or not others agree/disagree that this guy is the most overrated player on the board as of today.

Injury is the ONLY reason he may perform to a top 10 level.The other items are weak

 

[Joe T]

Do you agree or disagree that your arguments are weak for trying to show Maroney is overrated?

disagree.

So then you also think Addai is overrated. Just trying to clear things up.

No.Addai's 1400+ yards, 8 TD's, on 266 touches give him enough support to be worthy of a top 10 pick.Addai also averaged 20 carries and 5 catches a game in the playoffs last year.He also did not get injured last year. You can't say any of these things for Maroney. Maroney didn't finish in the top 30 RB's last year. A jump to the top 10 is a huge move.Thanks for playing. Please move along now.

 

[Joe T]

Injury is the ONLY reason he may perform to a top 10 level.The other items are weak

This is the type of Cesspool analysis that we need around here.

 

[David Yudkin]

Let's turn the tables here on Joe T . . .

The Pats as a team had

499 rushing attempts

1969 rushing yards

3.95 ypc

20 rushing TD

The RB corps chipped in roughly 90 receptions, 750 receiving yards, and 4 receiving TD.

WHAT DO YOU SEE THE PATRIOTS RB CORPS PRODUCING THIS YEAR AND WHO PUTS UP WHAT NUMBERS?

 

[ImTheScientist]

Let's turn the tables here on Joe T . . .The Pats as a team had499 rushing attempts1969 rushing yards3.95 ypc20 rushing TDThe RB corps chipped in roughly 90 receptions, 750 receiving yards, and 4 receiving TD.WHAT DO YOU SEE THE PATRIOTS RB CORPS PRODUCING THIS YEAR AND WHO PUTS UP WHAT NUMBERS?

I would like to see Joe T's breakdown

 

[Dhizz]

Joe T calling out a player (re: Evans) usually bumps him up in my book, but on this case I'll have to agree.

Maroney *looked* very impress early in the year. Ran with aggression, speed, power. Which is not surprising, it was in limited duty.

He only had 100 yards once. He never had 20 carries. He only had 6 tds. Only had 22 catches.

Addai killed Maroney.

MJD killed Maroney.

Bush killed Maroney.

So I don't understand why you'd rank any of those guys below Maroney (most have all 3). Maroney seems to be getting most of his steam from his impressive running style. He tears through the line and is very explosive.

But that doesn't mean squat on the score sheet. Addai, MJD, Bush were all more productive. At some point, college means jack. There are elite college players that can't even start in the NFL. So rookie years for me outweigh college. What you do in the NFL over 16 games, that means more then 4 years of college. This is the real deal. College was practice.

So here's my weak arguments against Maroney.

1) Hit a wall in his first year. In the 2nd half, he ran poorly. Last 5 games, 51 carries 166 yards, 3.3 ypc 0 tds. That's not how I want my rookie RB finishing the regular season. And how do you hit the wall in backup duty?

2) Was never the same after his injuries. Again, in limited duty, nagging injuries shouldn't be something that kills half your year. What happens when his carries double?

3) The Pats don't actually have a rich tradition of huge rushing numbers. They love to throw it in the RZ.

4) Watson seems like an elite talent, elite weapon, but the Pats don't really care. They have a system, and it's not a system that seems to favor the biggest playmakers. Brady spreads it around, they pass a lot in the RZ, it's just not "#1 RB in NE is a lock for top 10".

If a rookie RB ranks 4th among rookies, how is he the #1 rookie RB going into the next season? Dillon left? How did Morris do once SA was hurt? Just because you were handed the job, doesn't mean he can do it. Addai/MJD showed they can handle the job. Take the hits. Find the endzone. Maroney, not so much.

"Looks the part" and "great in college" don't pay the bills in the NFL. Give me the short squat 5'7 guy who scores from anywhere on the field.

 

[Dhizz]

Injury is the ONLY reason he may perform to a top 10 level.The other items are weak

That's genius.

 

[David Yudkin]

While we eagerly await Joe T's breakdown, I suspect that he will pull out something like if PLAYER A leaves, there is nothing that says PLAYER B will get his numbers. THe production doesn't have to go anywhere, it could just evaporate.

To a certain extent I agree with this and he and I have debated this in prior seasons. While I agree that 100% of the production may not stay in some way shape of form, I do believe that a percentage of it will get redistributed.

 

[duaneok66]

3. He had less than 1,000 total yards last year and has no history of being able to produce more.

Agree that he's overrated at #10. But where are you getting this "no history" argument? Besides his rookie year, splitting time with Dillon, he never produced worse than 1100 yards/10 TDs @ Minnesota.

he never carried the load in Minnesota; he always split time . . . mostly with Barber I think . . .

+------------------------+----+--------------------+-------------+-------------+|  YR	Team			|  G | CMP ATT  PYD TD IN | RSH   YD TD | REC   YD TD |+------------------------+----+--------------------+-------------+-------------+| 2003 Minnesota		 | 13 |   0   0	0  0  0 | 162 1121 10 |   1   11  0 || 2004 Minnesota		 | 12 |   0   0	0  0  0 | 217 1348 12 |   3   16  0 || 2005 Minnesota		 | 11 |   0   1	0  0  0 | 281 1464 10 |  17  170  1 |+------------------------+----+--------------------+-------------+-------------+

they ran the ball 610 times - even if you take the top two rushers only, together they ran the ball about 470 times, so he still hasn't carried the load . . .try again . . .

 

[fridayfrenzy]

Do you agree or disagree that your arguments are weak for trying to show Maroney is overrated?

disagree.

So then you also think Addai is overrated. Just trying to clear things up.

No.Addai's 1400+ yards, 8 TD's, on 266 touches give him enough support to be worthy of a top 10 pick.Addai also averaged 20 carries and 5 catches a game in the playoffs last year.He also did not get injured last year. You can't say any of these things for Maroney. Maroney didn't finish in the top 30 RB's last year. A jump to the top 10 is a huge move.Thanks for playing. Please move along now.

Then bring these arguments to the table about Maroney being overrated instead of your lame one's in the first post. I have no problem about hearing you out on why a player may be overrated but at least put some thought into the reasoning instead of having weak blanket statements which could be applied to many players.

 

[phthalatemagic]

A better comparison would be my most over rated player of '06 = Ronnie Brown.

I agree he is overrated, but the differences between Ronnie Brown 2006 and himself are too distinct to say they are alike. The 2006 Dolphins were in shambles. Their OL was amongst the worst in the league, their QB was returned from a catastrophic injury that no one knew how exactly he'd perform and their WRs were although playmaking at times, could not be counted on. The 2007 Patriots have an excellent OL and one of the best QBs at the height of his skills. The only thing that brings this two teams together are that their defenses were/are excellent units.I don't know if there is a good comparison for Lawrence Maroney. Tatum Bell a few years ago was highly touted, with a good OL in front of him and a solid defense. His situation could be close to Jamal Lewis' when he was a second year guy - they had a good line, a good defense and were pretty stable at the Patriots as well. I think you see RB's outcome in 2006 and are trying to shoehorn Maroney's situation to fit that - but it doesn't.You say he isn't big enough to handle 300+ carries, but the guy is listed at 5-1, 220 pounds. That's just a bizarre statement IMO. What size do you need to be to carry the ball 300 times?

 

[Dhizz]

While we eagerly await Joe T's breakdown, I suspect that he will pull out something like if PLAYER A leaves, there is nothing that says PLAYER B will get his numbers. THe production doesn't have to go anywhere, it could just evaporate.To a certain extent I agree with this and he and I have debated this in prior seasons. While I agree that 100% of the production may not stay in some way shape of form, I do believe that a percentage of it will get redistributed.

Well that was Joe T's basis for Evans not getting Moulds #s. It's a case by case review. There's far more red flags with Maroney, then him stepping in and grabbing 1,500 12.

 

[David Yudkin]

3. He had less than 1,000 total yards last year and has no history of being able to produce more.

Agree that he's overrated at #10. But where are you getting this "no history" argument? Besides his rookie year, splitting time with Dillon, he never produced worse than 1100 yards/10 TDs @ Minnesota.

he never carried the load in Minnesota; he always split time . . . mostly with Barber I think . . .

+------------------------+----+--------------------+-------------+-------------+|  YR	Team			|  G | CMP ATT  PYD TD IN | RSH   YD TD | REC   YD TD |+------------------------+----+--------------------+-------------+-------------+| 2003 Minnesota		 | 13 |   0   0	0  0  0 | 162 1121 10 |   1   11  0 || 2004 Minnesota		 | 12 |   0   0	0  0  0 | 217 1348 12 |   3   16  0 || 2005 Minnesota		 | 11 |   0   1	0  0  0 | 281 1464 10 |  17  170  1 |+------------------------+----+--------------------+-------------+-------------+

they ran the ball 610 times - even if you take the top two rushers only, together they ran the ball about 470 times, so he still hasn't carried the load . . .try again . . .

IMO, toting the rock 25 times a game his last year is more than 98% of most RBs in the NFL. That works out to 400 carries over a 16 game season. Now we'll hear that he was overworked instead.

 

[ImTheScientist]

Joe T calling out a player (re: Evans) usually bumps him up in my book, but on this case I'll have to agree.

Maroney *looked* very impress early in the year. Ran with aggression, speed, power. Which is not surprising, it was in limited duty.

He only had 100 yards once. He never had 20 carries. He only had 6 tds. Only had 22 catches.

Addai killed Maroney.

MJD killed Maroney.

Bush killed Maroney.

So I don't understand why you'd rank any of those guys below Maroney (most have all 3). Maroney seems to be getting most of his steam from his impressive running style. He tears through the line and is very explosive.

But that doesn't mean squat on the score sheet. Addai, MJD, Bush were all more productive. At some point, college means jack. There are elite college players that can't even start in the NFL. So rookie years for me outweigh college. What you do in the NFL over 16 games, that means more then 4 years of college. This is the real deal. College was practice.

So here's my weak arguments against Maroney.

1) Hit a wall in his first year. In the 2nd half, he ran poorly. Last 5 games, 51 carries 166 yards, 3.3 ypc 0 tds. That's not how I want my rookie RB finishing the regular season. And how do you hit the wall in backup duty?

2) Was never the same after his injuries. Again, in limited duty, nagging injuries shouldn't be something that kills half your year. What happens when his carries double?

3) The Pats don't actually have a rich tradition of huge rushing numbers. They love to throw it in the RZ.

4) Watson seems like an elite talent, elite weapon, but the Pats don't really care. They have a system, and it's not a system that seems to favor the biggest playmakers. Brady spreads it around, they pass a lot in the RZ, it's just not "#1 RB in NE is a lock for top 10".

If a rookie RB ranks 4th among rookies, how is he the #1 rookie RB going into the next season? Dillon left? How did Morris do once SA was hurt? Just because you were handed the job, doesn't mean he can do it. Addai/MJD showed they can handle the job. Take the hits. Find the endzone. Maroney, not so much.

"Looks the part" and "great in college" don't pay the bills in the NFL. Give me the short squat 5'7 guy who scores from anywhere on the field.

Addai killed Maroney.

MJD killed Maroney.

Bush killed Maroney.

So I don't understand why you'd rank any of those guys below Maroney (most have all 3).

Because its a statistical projection and not based on last years stats

3) The Pats don't actually have a rich tradition of huge rushing numbers. They love to throw it in the RZ.

The Pats as a team had499 rushing attempts

1969 rushing yards

3.95 ypc

20 rushing TD

Last year they finished 4th in rushing TD's in the NFL

 

[phthalatemagic]

3. He had less than 1,000 total yards last year and has no history of being able to produce more.

Agree that he's overrated at #10. But where are you getting this "no history" argument? Besides his rookie year, splitting time with Dillon, he never produced worse than 1100 yards/10 TDs @ Minnesota.

he never carried the load in Minnesota; he always split time . . . mostly with Barber I think . . .

+------------------------+----+--------------------+-------------+-------------+|  YR	Team			|  G | CMP ATT  PYD TD IN | RSH   YD TD | REC   YD TD |+------------------------+----+--------------------+-------------+-------------+| 2003 Minnesota		 | 13 |   0   0	0  0  0 | 162 1121 10 |   1   11  0 || 2004 Minnesota		 | 12 |   0   0	0  0  0 | 217 1348 12 |   3   16  0 || 2005 Minnesota		 | 11 |   0   1	0  0  0 | 281 1464 10 |  17  170  1 |+------------------------+----+--------------------+-------------+-------------+

Numbers are a funny thing, you know.Take duane's post at face value he is 100% correct. MBIII had more carries than Maroney both in 2003 and 2004. Gary Russell had a large chunk in 2005. Maroney never "carried the load" and "always shared". I do think Yukdins' point was not to refute what he said specifically, but to show that he really did handle a large number of carries and if he really did take on almost 700 carries in three years in the NCAAs, then for any reasonable person, he quieted any "he can't handle the load" talk.In conclusion, the "owned" sign was pretty lazy.

 

[Dhizz]

IMO, toting the rock 25 times a game his last year is more than 98% of most RBs in the NFL. That works out to 400 carries over a 16 game season. Now we'll hear that he was overworked instead.

So you have no concerns about Benson then? Again, a beast in college. Work horse.NFL, not so much.

 

[Joe T]

Let's turn the tables here on Joe T . . .The Pats as a team had499 rushing attempts1969 rushing yards3.95 ypc20 rushing TDThe RB corps chipped in roughly 90 receptions, 750 receiving yards, and 4 receiving TD.WHAT DO YOU SEE THE PATRIOTS RB CORPS PRODUCING THIS YEAR AND WHO PUTS UP WHAT NUMBERS?

Fair enough.I'd go:Maroney 238 1019 6Morris 125 454 4Faulk 37 126 0Hairston/Smith 39 127 0Pats= 439 1726 9Maroney receiving = 29 254 1This would put Maroney around RB 17 or 18.