Most overvalued TOP player at each position for 2011 Redraft (1 Viewer)

[LHUCKS]

These threads always get "sharks" panties in a bunch because nobody likes to hear that their dynasty roster has an overvalued player.

Quite frankly there isn't enough talk about overrated players on this board...sometimes it seems everybody is trying to win a popularity contest, staff included.

So here is what you need to hear, although you may not like to hear it...my most overvalued TOP players in 2011 for redraft.

QB - Matt Schaub - guy is terribly inconsistent and unpredictable so his overall numbers are always misleading. Further he is ranked after the big 7, where there could be a huge dropoff in production IMHO. Not a horrible pick, but you can get similar value a few rounds later.

RB - Jamaal Charles - Ranked as high as #4 = Fool's Gold. He's an electrifying, flashy runner with a high YPC. What's not to like? As a result he's ranked as high as #4 in some rankings. Fools Gold. A) He's not built like an everydown back. B) Tougher Schedule C) Defenses will get better at gameplanning(see Chris Johnson). I'm not saying he wont finish top 10, I'm saying he's overvalued right now.

WR - Roddy White - ranked as high as #2, Roddy is not the redzone threat that others like Nicks/Fitz/Megatron/AJ etc. etc. are. Better in PPR leagues, but still overvalued due to limited TD ceiling. An easy pick as the most overvalued fantasy WR

TE - Jason Witten - ranked as high as #2 in some rankings, Romo has a lot of mouths to feed. The emergence of Bryant as a redzone threat doesn't help either. That being said, this call has more to do with the quality of TE depth this year...guys like Winslow, Finley, Davis, Miller, Graham are decent threats to match his production. Overvalued city here. Wait on TE this year.

I have more but these are my top overvalued guys based on ADP and rankings.

I don't know why all the fantasy sites and/or magazines are afraid of doing this analysis...avoiding duds in the early rounds is a key to winning your league.

 

[johnb]

based on where they are being drafted, i would agree with charles and roddy compared to where i think they'll end. i'd rather a few others guys a few spots later.

i don't agree on witten. if he and romo are healthy, i think he has as good as shot as any to be right up there at end of the year.

schaub seems to be drafted about where i think he should go. i might lean towards agreeing, but he's not going in the tier of rivers/romo, and i can't really argue if someone prefers him over ben/flacco/eli/etc.

imo, your threads don't get the pool's panties in a bunch because of what you say, it's how you say it.

 

[shortbow]

I agree with all of these except White, I think Jennings is easily the most over rated WR in the NFL.

 

[LHUCKS]

based on where they are being drafted, i would agree with charles and roddy compared to where i think they'll end. i'd rather a few others guys a few spots later.i don't agree on witten. if he and romo are healthy, i think he has as good as shot as any to be right up there at end of the year.schaub seems to be drafted about where i think he should go. i might lean towards agreeing, but he's not going in the tier of rivers/romo, and i can't really argue if someone prefers him over ben/flacco/eli/etc.

so you really don't disagree with any except for Witten. Regarding Witten, is he a slam dunk to finish substantially higher than the other TEs I mentioned? I would argue no. His ADP is unjustified given the quality TE depth this year.

 

[LHUCKS]

I agree with all of these except White, I think Jennings is easily the most over rated WR in the NFL.

Nice, I'm two for two.I agree on Jennings...but White's ADP is absurd right now.

 

[eakfootball]

I would say

QB: Peyton

RB: Nobody

WR: Jennings

TE: Gates if he goes in the early 3rd like I've been seeing. Too injury prone to go that high.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Roddy is not the redzone threat that others like Nicks/Fitz/Megatron/AJ etc. etc. are. Better in PPR leagues, but still overvalued due to limited TD ceiling. An easy pick as the most overvalued fantasy WR

Roddy White had 10 TDs in 2011 and 11 TDs in 2009. AJ's career high is 9.

 

[LHUCKS]

Roddy is not the redzone threat that others like Nicks/Fitz/Megatron/AJ etc. etc. are. Better in PPR leagues, but still overvalued due to limited TD ceiling. An easy pick as the most overvalued fantasy WR

Roddy White had 10 TDs in 2011 and 11 TDs in 2009. AJ's career high is 9.

okay, and?

 

[LHUCKS]

I would sayQB: PeytonRB: NobodyWR: Jennings TE: Gates if he goes in the early 3rd like I've been seeing. Too injury prone to go that high.

I can buy all of these except for RB.So you're saying that the ADP is exactly what it should be for the top RBs...you realize that's never been the case in the history of fantasy football right?

 

[johnb]

based on where they are being drafted, i would agree with charles and roddy compared to where i think they'll end. i'd rather a few others guys a few spots later.i don't agree on witten. if he and romo are healthy, i think he has as good as shot as any to be right up there at end of the year.schaub seems to be drafted about where i think he should go. i might lean towards agreeing, but he's not going in the tier of rivers/romo, and i can't really argue if someone prefers him over ben/flacco/eli/etc.

so you really don't disagree with any except for Witten. Regarding Witten, is he a slam dunk to finish substantially higher than the other TEs I mentioned. I would argue no. His ADP is unjustified given the quality TE depth this year.

the TE position is one that i like proven guys. i think there is good depth there like you said, but i'd much rather put witten or clark in my lineup drafted a few rounds earlier than hope lewis, gronk, or miller do what i think they can. just my drafting preference of that position in particular.it's value really that i think you are talking about, and if i can take a QB/RB i really like and slide a few spots on roddy and grab wayne instead, i will absolutely do that. same idea with charles, but that would probably be a situation where i would try to trade down a few spots, not a round or two.

 

[lazyike]

For RB I put McFadden at the top of the list for overrated. I've seen him ranked as high as the #5 RB in PPR formats. For me he'd be a RB2 in the high risk high/ reward range

 

[LHUCKS]

based on where they are being drafted, i would agree with charles and roddy compared to where i think they'll end. i'd rather a few others guys a few spots later.i don't agree on witten. if he and romo are healthy, i think he has as good as shot as any to be right up there at end of the year.schaub seems to be drafted about where i think he should go. i might lean towards agreeing, but he's not going in the tier of rivers/romo, and i can't really argue if someone prefers him over ben/flacco/eli/etc.

so you really don't disagree with any except for Witten. Regarding Witten, is he a slam dunk to finish substantially higher than the other TEs I mentioned. I would argue no. His ADP is unjustified given the quality TE depth this year.

the TE position is one that i like proven guys. i think there is good depth there like you said, but i'd much rather put witten or clark in my lineup drafted a few rounds earlier than hope lewis, gronk, or miller do what i think they can. just my drafting preference of that position in particular.

okay, but I was careful not to mention Lewis or Gronk...I carefully chose the TEs that I think have a good chance at matching him or surpassing him.

 

[LHUCKS]

For RB I put McFadden at the top of the list for overrated. I've seen him ranked as high as the #5 RB in PPR formats. For me he'd be a RB2 in the high risk high/ reward range

Agree on the high risk/high reward comment. McFadden is also on my overvalued list, mostly due to risk, not upside.

 

[Instinctive]

Why do we let LHUCKS out of the FFA and into the SP?

 

[LHUCKS]

Why do we let LHUCKS out of the FFA and into the SP?

show me just one thread you've started in the last year that better helps people win their leagues?Just one, chief.I didn't think so.

 

[argamath]

RB Steven Jackson, Maurice Jones-Drew, Frank Gore

WR Andre Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, DeSean Jackson

 

[Gamblin'man]

Here's Mine

QB: Matt Schaub - He simply doesn't throw down near the endzone. There is a reason AJ can't get double digit TDs. Foster and the run game obviously are working well and with no real second WR opposite AJ I just don't see the big numbers to justify where he is going. He also has the 4th hardest passing schedule in the league this year.

RB: Adrian Peterson - He's being drafted 1st or 2nd off the board in most drafts. 99.9% chance he doesn't finish the year that high. The O-line is getting old and declining. They have no vertical threat and probably boast the worst starting outside WRs in the NFL. This means every week this year he will see the box stacked solely to stop him. He's being drafted much to high on name recognition.

WR: Greg Jennings - Everything fell right for this guy last year. With Finley back as the primary passing mismatch, he's just another short WR on a team that also features Donald Driver, newly resigned James Jones, Jordy Nelson, and electrifying rookie Randall Cobb. He will have some decent weeks but the consistency will not be there for his mid-second price tag.

TE: Vernon Davis - Train wreck waiting to happen this year. Alex Smith at QB, 4th toughest TE schedule, new scheme and coach. The 9ers as a whole just look bad (especially after watching this FA and their O-Line problems). He's being drafted as a top 5 guy and I can't see that happening with the huge influx of TE talent on other teams. There are a solid 10 guys I'd draft before him in much better situations.

 

[LHUCKS]

Here's MineQB: Matt Schaub - He simply doesn't throw down near the endzone. There is a reason AJ can't get double digit TDs. Foster and the run game obviously are working well and with no real second WR opposite AJ I just don't see the big numbers to justify where he is going. He also has the 4th hardest passing schedule in the league this year. RB: Adrian Peterson - He's being drafted 1st or 2nd off the board in most drafts. 99.9% chance he doesn't finish the year that high. The O-line is getting old and declining. They have no vertical threat and probably boast the worst starting outside WRs in the NFL. This means every week this year he will see the box stacked solely to stop him. He's being drafted much to high on name recognition.WR: Greg Jennings - Everything fell right for this guy last year. With Finley back as the primary passing mismatch, he's just another short WR on a team that also features Donald Driver, newly resigned James Jones, Jordy Nelson, and electrifying rookie Randall Cobb. He will have some decent weeks but the consistency will not be there for his mid-second price tag.TE: Vernon Davis - Train wreck waiting to happen this year. Alex Smith at QB, 4th toughest TE schedule, new scheme and coach. The 9ers as a whole just look bad (especially after watching this FA and their O-Line problems). He's being drafted as a top 5 guy and I can't see that happening with the huge influx of TE talent on other teams. There are a solid 10 guys I'd draft before him in much better situations.

Agree with all of these except for Davis who has nice upside.

 

[LHUCKS]

Here's MineQB: Matt Schaub - He simply doesn't throw down near the endzone. There is a reason AJ can't get double digit TDs. Foster and the run game obviously are working well and with no real second WR opposite AJ I just don't see the big numbers to justify where he is going. He also has the 4th hardest passing schedule in the league this year. RB: Adrian Peterson - He's being drafted 1st or 2nd off the board in most drafts. 99.9% chance he doesn't finish the year that high. The O-line is getting old and declining. They have no vertical threat and probably boast the worst starting outside WRs in the NFL. This means every week this year he will see the box stacked solely to stop him. He's being drafted much to high on name recognition.WR: Greg Jennings - Everything fell right for this guy last year. With Finley back as the primary passing mismatch, he's just another short WR on a team that also features Donald Driver, newly resigned James Jones, Jordy Nelson, and electrifying rookie Randall Cobb. He will have some decent weeks but the consistency will not be there for his mid-second price tag.TE: Vernon Davis - Train wreck waiting to happen this year. Alex Smith at QB, 4th toughest TE schedule, new scheme and coach. The 9ers as a whole just look bad (especially after watching this FA and their O-Line problems). He's being drafted as a top 5 guy and I can't see that happening with the huge influx of TE talent on other teams. There are a solid 10 guys I'd draft before him in much better situations.

Agree with all of these except for Davis who has nice upside.Nice job.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

RB: Adrian Peterson - He's being drafted 1st or 2nd off the board in most drafts. 99.9% chance he doesn't finish the year that high. The O-line is getting old and declining. They have no vertical threat and probably boast the worst starting outside WRs in the NFL. This means every week this year he will see the box stacked solely to stop him. He's being drafted much to high on name recognition.

Name recognition? More like consistent top tier production in any situation.He was RB2 last year (despite missing a game) with all those same things that you mentioned. Minnesota had an awful offensive line and zero passing threat last year.If anything, the fact that he's already delivered top numbers in a situation as horrific as the one you describe is a reason to take him even higher. In a terrible situation he was still a top 3 running back. There's no other back in the league you can say that about.

 

[PizzaDeliveryGuy]

Class Dismissed

See, this was a pretty good start to a thread and then you have to add nonsense that adds nothing except to stoke your overinflated opinion of yourself.I know you enjoy reporting people that end up responding negatively to it but if you would drop it, I'm guessing you could drum up more intelligent discussion. In the long run, isn't that what you want rather than to throw crap at a wall while sticking out your chest?On the subject.....QB- I think Schaub is absolute value going off the board 8th. I think Vick could wind up being the most overvalued.RB- I love Charles but agree that he could be overvalued. Mendenhall sticks out to me as being overvalued more. 3.9 YPC last year and he is going 8th off the board for RBs.WR- I don't see much out of line early but if I had to choose one it would be a home run hitter like Jennings or Wallace.TE- Finley. I like him but until he actually produces I would have a hard time counting on him that early. Not too mention Rodgers has a ton of weapons.

 

[beerbarron]

R you talking long term dynasty with most of these??

Good topic.. I have a similar list of players I dont draft or trade for due to their overvalue, percieved or real... 3/4 above on your list are on my list.. Only exception would be charles.. in dynasty he is worth a stab at the end of this year for him... but you will be forced to overpay at this time..

Witten and Romo have fantasy man crushes on each other... and Witten could produce at his ADP.. I wouldnt take him though..

Kellen Winslow will produce this year.. really??.. I disagree.. Id take Whitten over him.. yesterday...

A fantasy column titled "Avoid this years Duds" would be a great idea...

MJD, SJax, Michael Turner, Mike Williams TB are a few that should be on this list as well... I like MWTB but owners act like hes the next CJohnson.. so good luck trading for him/drafting after his ADP..

 

[LHUCKS]

QB- I think Schaub is absolute value going off the board 8th. I think Vick could wind up being the most overvalued.

I almost said Vick...he's got his fair share of risk. I don't like him going before Rodgers.

 

[LHUCKS]

R you talking long term dynasty with most of these??

Redraft only for this thread.

 

[LHUCKS]

A fantasy column titled "Avoid this years Duds" would be a great idea...

that's what this is essentially

 

[LHUCKS]

Kellen Winslow will produce this year.. really??.. I disagree.. Id take Whitten over him.. yesterday...

I have Witten ranked higher than Winslow, but their ADP difference is greater than it should be, subsequently creating a value play/angle by waiting on TE this year.

 

[beerbarron]

R you talking long term dynasty with most of these??

Redraft only for this thread.

OK.. you mentioned Dynasty in the article.. but with redraft your list is even more relavent..."Avoid this Year's Dud's" would be a good title if you were marketing your list to an internet FF website or had your own FF webpage..

 

[beerbarron]

Kellen Winslow will produce this year.. really??.. I disagree.. Id take Whitten over him.. yesterday...

I have Witten ranked higher than witten, but their ADP difference is greater than it should be, subsequently creating a value play/angle by waiting on TE this year.

Winlslow is someone I have never drafted due to overhype and injuries... I see what your saying but if I draft Winslow I will have to waste a pick on a TE2 later in the draft due to Winslows injury history... in a standard BSPN league/redraft usually with Witten i only have to pick up a TE on his bye week...

 

[FantasyTrader]

QB - Peyton Manning

RB - Maurice Jones-Drew

WR - DeSean Jackson

TE - Marcedes Lewis

Count me among those that think Schaub is actually solid value this year. These things tend to have an ebb and flow to them and as defenses account more heavily for Foster I think that bodes well for the passing game. Don't underestimate the healthy return of Owen Daniels. Last time we saw him healthy nobody could guard him.

 

[LHUCKS]

QB - Peyton ManningRB - Maurice Jones-DrewWR - DeSean JacksonTE - Marcedes LewisCount me among those that think Schaub is actually solid value this year. These things tend to have an ebb and flow to them and as defenses account more heavily for Foster I think that bodes well for the passing game. Don't underestimate the healthy return of Owen Daniels.

the second time I've seen MJD.What am I missing here?

 

[Donsmith753]

QB - Peyton ManningRB - Maurice Jones-DrewWR - DeSean JacksonTE - Marcedes LewisCount me among those that think Schaub is actually solid value this year. These things tend to have an ebb and flow to them and as defenses account more heavily for Foster I think that bodes well for the passing game. Don't underestimate the healthy return of Owen Daniels.

the second time I've seen MJD.What am I missing here?

Agreed. MJD's Adp Is about right, taking account of the relevant risks (knee).

 

[Dez]

Charles fools good ? I guess that 6+ yards per carry avg isn't real.

 

[TheDirtyWord]

Roddy is not the redzone threat that others like Nicks/Fitz/Megatron/AJ etc. etc. are. Better in PPR leagues, but still overvalued due to limited TD ceiling. An easy pick as the most overvalued fantasy WR

Roddy White had 10 TDs in 2011 and 11 TDs in 2009. AJ's career high is 9.

okay, and?

...and 10 & 11 are more than 9? In all seriousness though, your claim is bogus. White's red zone production is on par with the best of these producers and in actuality, the subpar performer in the red zone has been Megatron. You can check the stats over the last two years yourself.

 

[Instinctive]

Why do we let LHUCKS out of the FFA and into the SP?

show me just one thread you've started in the last year that better helps people win their leagues?Just one, chief.

I didn't think so.

Just for fun:Draft Strategy Differences for Different League Sizes

Why You Might Want to Avoid Mike Williams TB

Beyond that though, on topic:

I'd agree with Schaub in that I'd avoid him, but I wouldn't call him overrated. He's got huge potential on any given week because he has a top 3 receiver in the league to throw to, and his schedule this year includes the NFC South as well as the AFC West. There could be a shootout with Atlanta and/or New Orleans, and the AFC West is typically pretty giving to other offenses. He may not be the most consistent guy, but the AFC South doesn't exactly have great defense in it either.

Bottom line is, you're drafting him after the sure things. You draft him over Stafford or Freeman types because he's been a top QB before, and the team as a whole looks to improve this year. I wouldn't say he even fits with your premise of TOP players who are overvalued. He's not in the top 2 tiers even...

Charles: You use Chris Johnson as a comparison...um, after his electrifying rookie year, he went for 2k yards...and then he followed that up with 1300 yards and a top 5 RB finish. Look, if you're going to be that strict on overrated and say that CJ4.24 at #1 last season was overrated based on his finish at RB5, then ok. But if my #1 overall pick finishes with close to 100 VBD and is a top 5 guy, then I'm 100% ok with that.

Charles isn't built like an everydown back - ok. So what? He doesn't need to be. If he can just do something similar to last season, I;d be ok with taking him #1 overall, and getting him 4th is great. If my first round pick finishes with a really solid season and is, say, in the top 8 at his position...then I call that a win. He doesn't need to finish #4 overall to justify a #4 ranking.

Roddy White: you know, he might just be overrated. At the same time though, I think he'll be a top 10 receiver - people are overreacting to Julio's arrival. And your TD point is off-base in part: He isn't Calvin or Nicks, but you're very wrong to put Andre Johnson in that group. Over the past 4 years (Schaub for AJ instead of Carr, and Roddy with Matt Ryan and also a season of QB junk) Roddy has 34 TDs. AJ has 33. Over the past 2 seasons, Roddy has 21 TDs...AJ has 17. To say that White is less of a TD threat than AJ is simply false. Now - again, depending on how strictly we say "overrated," I could agree on White. I would rather have Calvin, and I wouldn't argue with somebody taking Nicks or AJ over him, or even Fitz. But he's got to be a part of that tier, and I don't think you'll look back and say "Damn, I wish I hadn't drafted Roddy," if he finishes as WR7-10 and you took him as the 3rd guy off the board.

Witten - I entirely agree. I'd rather have Clark, Gates, or Finley if I am going to be taking TE early, and I'd rather wait, get value, and then take Pettigrew, or even guys like Marcedes Lewis later. I actually like Lewis to repeat his strong performance last year as a rookie QB in Jax may end up looking to his TE safety valve more than a typical QB. Of course, that depends on Gabbert getting in there. Witten won't be on any of my teams this year, i like this call.

For me? Guys I think are overrated, at the tops of rankings?

QB: Peyton Manning would be my pick, or maybe Rodgers, from the top tier of QBs. I think that the first tier, and even the 2nd, is incredibly safe. Rivers, Rodgers, Manning, Brady, Brees, Vick - I would be happy with any of them as my QB this year. But if I had to pick from the top guys, I would say that the risk on Rodgers having an unlucky concussion or Manning with all these neck surgery issues outweighs their benefit vs similarly ranked guys. I leave Vick off of that because, IMO, he is far and away the highest reward, although his risk is also highest. Bottom line, to me, is 12 games of Vick is worth a late 1st/early 2nd round pick in a redraft - even taking into account his risk. I would rather have Brees or Brady or Rivers than Rodgers or Manning though because if I'm going to takes guys I see as similar to each other, I may as well take the ones I think have the least risk.

RB: If MJD is considered a TOP player, I'd avoid him this year as well. Once again, it is all about maximizing reward while minimizing risk. The highest risk:reward ratio is what I'm shooting for. MJD and his knees are something that I'll be avoiding because, once again, the risk is simply too much compared to the reward of guys drafted around him.

WR: DeSean Jackson (he's consistently ranked top 10, if that's high enough to qualify) - he's not even going to be the best fantasy wideout on his team, if you ask me. He's so heavily dependent on the explosive TD plays (not necessarily a bad thing, because he IS an explosive player) that I think a tiny bit of bad luck totally screws him. Every year we see some guys who got tackled inside the 5 on long passes and don't score more often than one would expect, and we talk about how they're undervalued when draft time comes. If DJax gets hit with a couple of those, he's totally screwed. If Vick goes down...do we really think VY is going to make DJax a WR1? With Maclin and McCoy catching passes again and improving, is DJax going to continue to get enough targets?

Mike WIlliams TB is another guy I'm going to avoid at his ADP in a redraft, this season. Just less risk with guys around him who have similar upside. Although if TB Mike fell a tiny bit to me, as a WR2 instead of WR1, then I;d be all over him. I don't think the risk is THAT great.

TE: Jimmy Graham is drastically overvalued if you ask me. His ADP is skyrocketing as we get closer to the season...that offense is going to feed Colston, Moore, Meachem, Ingram, Sproles...I doubt Graham is a top 5 TE, and he seems to be getting drafted after Witten, Finley, Clark and Gates only. Too much risk for me, if I'm not going to have Gates or Finley...I'm gonna wait and grab Pettigrew or somebody.

 

[FantasyTrader]

QB - Peyton ManningRB - Maurice Jones-DrewWR - DeSean JacksonTE - Marcedes LewisCount me among those that think Schaub is actually solid value this year. These things tend to have an ebb and flow to them and as defenses account more heavily for Foster I think that bodes well for the passing game. Don't underestimate the healthy return of Owen Daniels.

the second time I've seen MJD.What am I missing here?

Well, there's several seeds of doubt. First, MJD's self admission that his knee still isn't completely right. He checked in with the media *I think* a couple of weeks ago and proclaimed himself 85% healthy.Second, the presence of a back-up (Jennings) who looked plenty capable in limited time last year. Del Rio and staff would be less inclined to keep pounding Jones-Drew if Jennings picks up where he left off. Third, the potential of Gabbert seeing time and floundering as most rookie QB's do. Nothing would derail MJD (and Jennings for that matter) faster than struggles in the passing game. Best case scenario, MJD heals up - tears off another 280 carries and life is good. But the above are more ifs than you should be able to find in a round 1 RB.

 

[travdogg]

RB - Jamaal Charles - Ranked as high as #4 = Fool's Gold. He's an electrifying, flashy runner with a high YPC. What's not to like? As a result he's ranked as high as #4 in some rankings. Fools Gold. A) He's not built like an everydown back. B) Tougher Schedule C) Defenses will get better at gameplanning(see Chris Johnson). I'm not saying he wont finish top 10, I'm saying he's overvalued right now.

I completely agree with Schaub and White, but I think Witten is pretty damn safe as a top-5 TE. Also, in many leagues, both Finley and Davis go ahead of Witten. I'd take Finley or him and Davis isn't far behind, but it seems like all 3 in the the top-tier of TE's.I disagree completely with Charles though. I actually think he is undervalued. Yes the schedule will be tougher, but that could just as easily mean KC leans more on their best player. I think the not having an everydown back build is bunk. Plenty of guys at his size have been successful, including Chris Johnson. I also disagree with the defenses getting better at game planning logic. Charles got better as the year went on, even when it was clear to anyone watching he ws the best player on the field. Also, I don't think CJ's decline had anything to do with defensive game planning, and had everything to do with his supporting cast letting him down. If Vince Young would have been the starter all season I think CJ would have finished #2 behind Foster last year, and even then he was still top-5, despite getting worse QB play than anyone else in the AFC once Young went down.

For RB I put McFadden at the top of the list for overrated. I've seen him ranked as high as the #5 RB in PPR formats. For me he'd be a RB2 in the high risk high/ reward range

Agree on the high risk/high reward comment. McFadden is also on my overvalued list, mostly due to risk, not upside.

I think McFadden is very underrated. On a PPG basis he was the #2 RB in the league last year, despite missing some great matchups and being on a team that took too long to figure out that Campbell>Gradkowski. He catches the ball as well as any RB in the NFL and is going to be the main player on the offense. Obviously there is risk of injury, but if he stays healthy their is #1 RB upside. I'd certainly rather take a chance on that, then roll with lower upside guys like Turner or Mendehall who are going in the same range.

 

[LHUCKS]

Roddy is not the redzone threat that others like Nicks/Fitz/Megatron/AJ etc. etc. are. Better in PPR leagues, but still overvalued due to limited TD ceiling. An easy pick as the most overvalued fantasy WR

Roddy White had 10 TDs in 2011 and 11 TDs in 2009. AJ's career high is 9.

okay, and?

...and 10 & 11 are more than 9?

You do realize AJ missed three games last season right?

 

[LHUCKS]

I'd certainly rather take a chance on that, then roll with lower upside guys like Turner or Mendehall who are going in the same range.

Great point, I would rather have McFadden instead of those guys as well, particularly in shallow leagues where you can accumulate depth.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Roddy is not the redzone threat that others like Nicks/Fitz/Megatron/AJ etc. etc. are. Better in PPR leagues, but still overvalued due to limited TD ceiling. An easy pick as the most overvalued fantasy WR

Roddy White had 10 TDs in 2011 and 11 TDs in 2009. AJ's career high is 9.

okay, and?

...and 10 & 11 are more than 9?

You do realize AJ missed three games last season right?

You do realize that "career high" encompasses more than last season, right?

 

[by_the_sea_wannabe]

I would sayQB: PeytonRB: NobodyWR: Jennings TE: Gates if he goes in the early 3rd like I've been seeing. Too injury prone to go that high.

I can buy all of these except for RB.So you're saying that the ADP is exactly what it should be for the top RBs...you realize that's never been the case in the history of fantasy football right?

that the rb's have never finished the same as adp is irrelevant. no reason to name someone here just for the sake of naming someone. if you think the top guys are all solid, then no one is a good answer.However for me it isqb - Mike Vick - injuries, character, and defenses having a better game plan makes him my 6th qb.rb - MJD - i don't think the offense will be good enough to justify his draft spotwr - v. jackson - off the field stuff / can't pick him in the top 10, plenty of guys later with equal production chances

 

[LHUCKS]

wr - v. jackson - off the field stuff / can't pick him in the top 10, plenty of guys later with equal production chances

He's actually one of my top value plays this year.

 

[PizzaDeliveryGuy]

wr - v. jackson - off the field stuff / can't pick him in the top 10, plenty of guys later with equal production chances

He's actually one of my top value plays this year.

 

[TheDirtyWord]

Roddy is not the redzone threat that others like Nicks/Fitz/Megatron/AJ etc. etc. are. Better in PPR leagues, but still overvalued due to limited TD ceiling. An easy pick as the most overvalued fantasy WR

Roddy White had 10 TDs in 2011 and 11 TDs in 2009. AJ's career high is 9.

okay, and?

...and 10 & 11 are more than 9?

You do realize AJ missed three games last season right?

You do realize that "career high" encompasses more than last season, right?

When he had 8...

 

[argamath]

What am I missing on WR Greg Jennings, GB?

He has a proven track record, the best QB in the game throwing to him and very little change in the WR corps. He should be in for another good year.

 

[johnadams]

I like most of what I've seen so far. Here are my thoughts:

QB: Not really any one that I'd say for sure. Vick certainly could be overvalued, but if he stays healthy, not a chance. By and large, I agree with the general consensus on where guys are getting drafted. Shaub is a decent pick, but like someone else said, he's getting picked around round 6 which doesn't make him a TOP guy in my book.

RB: Easy for me. SJax, Turner, and Gore are all getting drafted too early for my blood. History is against guys who are 28 with heavy workloads and injury histories. Sure, they might survive a season, but I'm not burning a second rounder to find out.

WR: It won't be a popular sentiment, but in PPR, I think Calvin Johnson is getting too much run for a guy who has never had more than 78 receptions in a year. Keep in mind, I'm looking at redraft as his top 3 ranking in dynasty is spot on. I'd rather someone like White who seems a lock to get 100+ receptions and would prefer getting Wayne in round three than a first for Calvin (though I'd rather Calvin) who will also get in the 100+ reception category. I like Calvin a lot, I just don't like where he's getting drafted (as early as six in some of the drafts I've seen). No-PPR, I'd say Wayne as I'd prefer the upside of a guy like Lloyd or Stevie Johnson in rounds 5+.

TE: Anyone drafted before round 7 other than Gates. Clark is too big of an injury risk (so is Gates, but Gates is the best TE again by such a distance, I will take the chance), Finley has a lot to prove, I'm not counting on Witten scoring more than 5 TDs again and Davis is about the only starting caliber offensive player in niners camp right now. This is the year I'm going to wait to get guys like Cooley, Winslow, or even Pettitgrew who has gone undrafted in some mocks that I've seen.

 

[Go Blue]

These threads always get "sharks" panties in a bunch because nobody likes to hear that their dynasty roster has an overvalued player.

Quite frankly there isn't enough talk about overrated players on this board...sometimes it seems everybody is trying to win a popularity contest, staff included.

So here is what you need to hear, although you may not like to hear it...my most overvalued TOP players in 2011 for redraft.

QB - Matt Schaub - guy is terribly inconsistent and unpredictable so his overall numbers are always misleading. Further he is ranked after the big 7, where there could be a huge dropoff in production IMHO. Not a horrible pick, but you can get similar value a few rounds later.

RB - Jamaal Charles - Ranked as high as #4 = Fool's Gold. He's an electrifying, flashy runner with a high YPC. What's not to like? As a result he's ranked as high as #4 in some rankings. Fools Gold. A) He's not built like an everydown back. B) Tougher Schedule C) Defenses will get better at gameplanning(see Chris Johnson). I'm not saying he wont finish top 10, I'm saying he's overvalued right now.

WR - Roddy White - ranked as high as #2, Roddy is not the redzone threat that others like Nicks/Fitz/Megatron/AJ etc. etc. are. Better in PPR leagues, but still overvalued due to limited TD ceiling. An easy pick as the most overvalued fantasy WR

TE - Jason Witten - ranked as high as #2 in some rankings, Romo has a lot of mouths to feed. The emergence of Bryant as a redzone threat doesn't help either. That being said, this call has more to do with the quality of TE depth this year...guys like Winslow, Finley, Davis, Miller, Graham are decent threats to match his production. Overvalued city here. Wait on TE this year.

I have more but these are my top overvalued guys based on ADP and rankings.

I don't know why all the fantasy sites and/or magazines are afraid of doing this analysis...avoiding duds in the early rounds is a key to winning your league.

I disagree on Schaub. He's inconsistent??? Hasn't he finished top 8 for the last two years? This year he'll get a healthy Daniels and keep doing the same.

I disagree on Charles as well. Schedule is tougher no doubt. He should also see a spike in touches this year. K.C. will get the ball into their best playmakers hand. I doubt he finishes outside the top 7 and would not be surprised to see him finish top 3.

I disagree on White also. I don't think he'll be the target hog anymore, but should still finish top 5.

I agree with the premise of waiting on TE's, but it's very hard to argue that Witten isn't going to finish top 5. I doubt even Rareem Morris thinks Winslow can produce Witten numbers this year. That comment is a huge stretch.

I do agree completely that this is a very good thread topic.

QB---Matt Ryan: Drafted at either the 8th or 9th spot. Too much Julio Jones hype for me. Mike Smith might let Ryan air it out more, but I'm not buying it. Granted, it's not a huge drop but I have him at QB 13 this year. Unless the injury bug hits, no way he passes the top 7. So he's either drafted right where he finishes or worse. Not much upside there.

RB---Chris Johnson: I think he's in for a long holdout. When he reports, I doubt he's in game shape. I see him getting off to a slow start this year. Wr's are a mess and the defense is not what it used to be. He'll still be the focal point of defenses every week. Mike Munchak is no Jeff Fisher. Tennessee is in for a long season. I'm predicting he finishes at RB 10 this year. Granted, I'm probably alone on that, but I'm good with it.

WR---Jennings or Jackson: I doubt either can live up to their lofty ADP.

TE---Gonzo: He has to fall off the cliff sometime. This is the year. I have him at TE 20 this year. I know Gonzo isn't a top player anymore, but he's way overvalued.

 

[TheDirtyWord]

In answer to the question...

Matt Ryan- I love the guy...but he's being taken in an area of the draft at which he's never produced. While I expect him to have his best year, he needs to get his YPA up because 570+ attempts shouldn't happen again. Big Ben should be going a round or two above him in every draft and in quite a few I see, Ryan is being drafted ahead of him.

Miles Austin- There is a very decent chance he could be the 3rd option in the DAL passing game by October. Am I saying this happens? No, but if I'm drafting him a WR in Round 2/3, I want that guy to be either the man, or the co-man, no questions asked. Ceiling seems low...

Jimmy Graham- Drew Brees M-O is to spread the ball around to all of his receiving options. I'm seeing Graham get drafted in Round 6/7. Just seems awfully high for a guy who while he showed some nice flashes last year, operates in an offense that by design is as diversified as any in the NFL.

Shonn Greene-. He doesn't provide any passing game support. Even if LT's role is diminished, he'll still be a presence and while he would have to show big improvement, Joe McKnight could carve himself out a role not to mention Bilal Powell. His total yard ceiling seems low with no guarantee that he hoards the TD's.

 

[Captain Hook]

Regarding Witten, is he a slam dunk to finish substantially higher than the other TEs I mentioned? I would argue no. His ADP is unjustified given the quality TE depth this year.

YES he is a slam dunk to finish with more FF points than everyeone you listed - with the possible exception of Finley. While there are a lot of decent TE picks this year the top tier is still going to outscore the next two groups (well if Gates foot problems don't keep him out of action)

 

[LHUCKS]

Regarding Witten, is he a slam dunk to finish substantially higher than the other TEs I mentioned? I would argue no. His ADP is unjustified given the quality TE depth this year.

YES he is a slam dunk to finish with more FF points than everyeone you listed - with the possible exception of Finley.

 

[LHUCKS]

In answer to the question...

Matt Ryan- I love the guy...but he's being taken in an area of the draft at which he's never produced. While I expect him to have his best year, he needs to get his YPA up because 570+ attempts shouldn't happen again. Big Ben should be going a round or two above him in every draft and in quite a few I see, Ryan is being drafted ahead of him.

Miles Austin- There is a very decent chance he could be the 3rd option in the DAL passing game by October. Am I saying this happens? No, but if I'm drafting him a WR in Round 2/3, I want that guy to be either the man, or the co-man, no questions asked. Ceiling seems low...

Jimmy Graham- Drew Brees M-O is to spread the ball around to all of his receiving options. I'm seeing Graham get drafted in Round 6/7. Just seems awfully high for a guy who while he showed some nice flashes last year, operates in an offense that by design is as diversified as any in the NFL.

Shonn Greene-. He doesn't provide any passing game support. Even if LT's role is diminished, he'll still be a presence and while he would have to show big improvement, Joe McKnight could carve himself out a role not to mention Bilal Powell. His total yard ceiling seems low with no guarantee that he hoards the TD's.

weak response, none of these guys are top guys...austin is the closestLet's see you take a stab at the top guys