Mr. Winslow (1 Viewer)

[Blackjacks]

I was reading in the blogger that last year Steve Heiden caught over 40 passes and over 400 yards in the Cle. offense last year. How much better #'s do you think Winslow can put up this year. He's more talented and seems to have as good if not better rapport with Frye. I find it amazing that Steve Heiden ginished #18 last year....I don't think it's a stretch to say WINSLOW WILL BE TOP 10 THIS YEAR.

 

[Chaos Commish]

ADP is TE9.

eta. That's also 8.11 in 12 team redrafts.

eta again. He's TE12 by FBG's consensus and #112 overall, which is 9.3.

 

[wannabee]

I was reading in the blogger that last year Steve Heiden caught over 40 passes and over 400 yards in the Cle. offense last year. How much better #'s do you think Winslow can put up this year. He's more talented and seems to have as good if not better rapport with Frye. I find it amazing that Steve Heiden ginished #18 last year....I don't think it's a stretch to say WINSLOW WILL BE TOP 10 THIS YEAR.

I agree, Heiden had a very good and surprising year. But, I have read where both Heiden and Winslow will be on the field at the same time this year. I would think this might lower Winslow's ceiling a bit.

 

[MLBrandow]

I was reading in the blogger that last year Steve Heiden caught over 40 passes and over 400 yards in the Cle. offense last year. How much better #'s do you think Winslow can put up this year. He's more talented and seems to have as good if not better rapport with Frye. I find it amazing that Steve Heiden ginished #18 last year....I don't think it's a stretch to say WINSLOW WILL BE TOP 10 THIS YEAR.

I don't think top-5 is a far shot. He's going to be the WR1 until Edwards gets back, and who knows when he gets back if he'll even be effective this year.1000/7 is marginal numbers for a WR1, but for a TE, those would be pretty pro.

Not saying that KW2 will hit those numbers, but it is not a far cry at all. He's got everything going for him.

 

[Blackjacks]

ADP is TE9.

eta. That's also 8.11 in 12 team redrafts.

Only 6 out of 17 footballguys staff members put him in the top 10 and 2 of them had him 10

 

[Flying Spaghetti Monster]

I think Winslow is a dangerous pick this year due to his injury history and how it has effected his overall ability to play at the this level. BTW I 100% agree that he was the best TE prospect coming out of college that I have ever seen, I just do not think he can overcome all the damage his body has taken and still be the same player.

 

[Blackjacks]

I was reading in the blogger that last year Steve Heiden caught over 40 passes and over 400 yards in the Cle. offense last year. How much better #'s do you think Winslow can put up this year. He's more talented and seems to have as good if not better rapport with Frye. I find it amazing that Steve Heiden ginished #18 last year....I don't think it's a stretch to say WINSLOW WILL BE TOP 10 THIS YEAR.

I don't think top-5 is a far shot. He's going to be the WR1 until Edwards gets back, and who knows when he gets back if he'll even be effective this year.1000/7 is marginal numbers for a WR1, but for a TE, those would be pretty pro.

Not saying that KW2 will hit those numbers, but it is not a far cry at all. He's got everything going for him.

Oh my gosh we agree on something. I knew it would happen sooner or later. Now if you just listen to me about everything else you'll be on your way.

 

[JAA]

Depends on how hungry he gets this season. I like him a lot over the next 5 years, just not exactly sure about redraft potential

 

[David Yudkin]

I know that he's technically not a rookie, but rookie TE have a tendancy to not do much the first year.

Last year, the #10 TE scored 85 fantasy points. THere have been 5 rookie TE to score that many in their first year.

Keith Jackson 1988 122

Cameron Cleeland 1998 104

Jeremy Shockey 2002 101

Rob Awalt 1987 88

Ken Dilger 1995 87

I think Winslow could do it, but I'm not sure how much higher up the rankings I'd go beyond 9 or 10.

 

[thayman]

I have trouble picking him up any sooner then 9th or 10th TE off of the board. Probably not going to be an issue for me anyway since I'm pretty sure at least one guy in every league I'm in has some KWII love and will pick him up far too early.

 

[wannabee]

I know that he's technically not a rookie, but rookie TE have a tendancy to not do much the first year.

Last year, the #10 TE scored 85 fantasy points. THere have been 5 rookie TE to score that many in their first year.

Keith Jackson 1988 122

Cameron Cleeland 1998 104

Jeremy Shockey 2002 101

Rob Awalt 1987 88

Ken Dilger 1995 87

I think Winslow could do it, but I'm not sure how much higher up the rankings I'd go beyond 9 or 10.

Do you hold the same thought for Davis? I ask because some FBG staffers have him rated high (a TE5, TE7, TE8, and two TE9): http://www.footballguys.com/viewrankings.p...=te&howrecent=7

Plus, his ADP is TE9: http://footballguys.com/06dodds_adp.php

In that SF offense, I think top 10 is too high in redraft. In dynasty, sure, I can understand it, but not in dynasty.

 

[Shiver44]

I think Winslow will be a top 5-7 guy, but I wouldn't draft him as such.

 

[David Yudkin]

I know that he's technically not a rookie, but rookie TE have a tendancy to not do much the first year. 

Last year, the #10 TE scored 85 fantasy points.  THere have been 5 rookie TE to score that many in their first year.

Keith Jackson 1988 122

Cameron Cleeland 1998 104

Jeremy Shockey 2002 101

Rob Awalt 1987 88

Ken Dilger 1995 87

I think Winslow could do it, but I'm not sure how much higher up the rankings I'd go beyond 9 or 10.

Do you hold the same thought for Davis? I ask because some FBG staffers have him rated high (a TE5, TE7, TE8, and two TE9): http://www.footballguys.com/viewrankings.p...=te&howrecent=7

Plus, his ADP is TE9: http://footballguys.com/06dodds_adp.php

In that SF offense, I think top 10 is too high in redraft. In dynasty, sure, I can understand it, but not in dynasty.

I think this year Winslow will do better than Davis. As someone else mentioned, Edwards could miss half the year and could be hampered even once he hits the field. CLE signed Jurevicius who I think is really a WR3 in the NFL and has been his whole career (but lucked his way into 10 TDs last year). They really have no really great WR options, so Winslow could see his fair share of targets (but temper that enthusiasm some with Frye at QB).IMO, SF has Bryant and Battle at WR (not great but probably better than the CLE options) but more importantly they have Eric Johnson who last he played (2004) had 82 receptions. That's not exactly chopped liver, and I can't see Davis showing Johnson the door.

As I see it, Winslow will do better and can be drafted later, making him the better pick in my mind. Either way, you still really need another TE as an option just in case.

 

[MLBrandow]

IMO, SF has Bryant and Battle at WR (not great but probably better than the CLE options) but more importantly they have Eric Johnson who last he played (2004) had 82 receptions. That's not exactly chopped liver, and I can't see Davis showing Johnson the door.

That's all you had to say. Everyone seems to have forgotten about this guy.

 

[gman8343]

Top 10 isn't really a "huge" year, is it?

 

[njxbean]

TE's on average dont blow up their first year. not to mention, to a player coming out of college, its a big deal when they miss camp. let alone 2 years. i cant see it just yet.

 

[OldMilwaukee]

Top 10 isn't really a "huge" year, is it?

 

[Brewtown]

This dude is gonna roll!

He is probably the most motivated man in the NFL this year. Along with T.O. and McNabb.

Give me a motivated guy with a chip on his shoulder and something to prove anyday! I want those guys on my team!

 

[The Jerk]

This dude is gonna roll!

He is probably the most motivated man in the NFL this year. Along with T.O. and McNabb.

Give me a motivated guy with a chip on his shoulder and something to prove anyday! I want those guys on my team!

I agree, but only to a point.1. There are legitimate questions about his ability to physically compete in the NFL.

2. The Browns are no offensive juggernaut. All the talk of Winslow being a go-to guy until Braylon Edwards returns needs to be tempered by understanding that defensive coordinators might notice the absence of Edwards, too.

3. Schedule is above average in difficulty, playing PITT and BALT twice each plus AFC West and NFC South. Not many easy defenses in that group.

 

[Brewtown]

This dude is gonna roll! 

He is probably the most motivated man in the NFL this year.  Along with T.O. and McNabb. 

Give me a motivated guy with a chip on his shoulder and something to prove anyday!  I want those guys on my team!

I agree, but only to a point.1. There are legitimate questions about his ability to physically compete in the NFL.

2. The Browns are no offensive juggernaut. All the talk of Winslow being a go-to guy until Braylon Edwards returns needs to be tempered by understanding that defensive coordinators might notice the absence of Edwards, too.

3. Schedule is above average in difficulty, playing PITT and BALT twice each plus AFC West and NFC South. Not many easy defenses in that group.

1) There are some questions with him coming back from injury. By the time the season starts he'll be 16 months removed from the accident. Thats a decent amount of time. Great athletes have made it back to greatness after ACL tears. McGahee, Terry Allen, Lee Evans, Edge and very soon Frank Gore. The treatment of knee injuries has made dramatic advances and is better even than it was a decade ago.A recent survey of NFL physicians showed that nearly 100 percent of NFL athletes who tore the primary stabilizing ligament in the knee -- the anterior cruciate ligament -- were able to return to competition after surgery. That doesn't mean all were as good as they were before their injury. But they came back.

2) Offensive Jugernaut? Who cares! We are talking TE production here. Does that really matter?

3) Who cares about so called easy defenses when it comes to TE production. Does that really matter?

Health is an issue, but he is young and young people can recuperate better from injury. Just ask Mcgahee. That video was brutal.

 

[The Jerk]

Who cares!

Compelling argument there.I'm not just talking about his knee. He successfully completed only one game in his rookie season. We won't really know how he holds up for a 16-game season until he actually holds up for a 16-game season.As for his surrounding cast and opposing defenses, I wouldn't bring attention to it if the Browns were average, but they were 32nd -- as in last -- in points scored last year. I'm probably not the only person who thinks that matters. And would you rather have your players facing a Bears-caliber defense every week or would you rather matchup vs. the 49ers or Texans?My opinion is simply that it's a little more complicated than just having a "chip on his shoulder." If you think that's all that matters, feel free to disregard my points.

 

[Bri]

I was reading in the blogger that last year Steve Heiden caught over 40 passes and over 400 yards in the Cle. offense last year. How much better #'s do you think Winslow can put up this year. He's more talented and seems to have as good if not better rapport with Frye. I find it amazing that Steve Heiden ginished #18 last year....I don't think it's a stretch to say WINSLOW WILL BE TOP 10 THIS YEAR.

I thought I saw his player spotlight thread recentlyAfter the first oh 10-15 guys the TEs sorta gel together. One catch here, one there, and guys can jump up and down the rankings. I'm pretty sure 350 yards is supercommon most seasons.

I like the 40 receptions for a less than stellar TE like you said. I like the mere fact that they're toying with the thought of him playing WR in spots. For me, that's a vote of confidence the staff's showing in him.

The prob I have is Frye not throwing much. Rookie QB so I'm hoping he'll throw more as Romeo gains confidence in him.

 

[Bizkiteer]

I was reading in the blogger that last year Steve Heiden caught over 40 passes and over 400 yards in the Cle. offense last year. How much better #'s do you think Winslow can put up this year. He's more talented and seems to have as good if not better rapport with Frye. I find it amazing that Steve Heiden ginished #18 last year....I don't think it's a stretch to say WINSLOW WILL BE TOP 10 THIS YEAR.

I thought I saw his player spotlight thread recentlyAfter the first oh 10-15 guys the TEs sorta gel together. One catch here, one there, and guys can jump up and down the rankings. I'm pretty sure 350 yards is supercommon most seasons.

I like the 40 receptions for a less than stellar TE like you said. I like the mere fact that they're toying with the thought of him playing WR in spots. For me, that's a vote of confidence the staff's showing in him.

The prob I have is Frye not throwing much. Rookie QB so I'm hoping he'll throw more as Romeo gains confidence in him.

For what it's worth...Young QB's or rookies usually have far more dump off type passes to RB's or TE's. They run the shorter routes, so I find that it's not as big of a deal for them as it is for a WR when it comes to the inexperienced/young QB.

 

[Bizkiteer]

Oh and I think he's a top 3 TE this year!

Taken from my psot in the "Player Spotlight: Kellen Winslow" thread:

80/925/8

KW2 will be the main target for Cleveland. Even when Braylon gets back, he'll be rusty and won't command as much attention. Considering that KW2 can lineup anywhere (TE or WR), matchups will be tuff for defenses. Add that he has already built some chemistry in the off-season w/ Fry and even has ties w/ Dorsey from college, if Fry gets hurt. He will be the primary weapon in the red zone too and most LB'ers will have too much trouble covering him.

I don't think it's unrealistic that he will put up similar numbers to Shockey in yardage and Gates in target/receptions. Though his TD's will not be as grand due to Cleveland's overall offensive woes.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

I was reading in the blogger that last year Steve Heiden caught over 40 passes and over 400 yards in the Cle. offense last year. How much better #'s do you think Winslow can put up this year. He's more talented and seems to have as good if not better rapport with Frye. I find it amazing that Steve Heiden ginished #18 last year....I don't think it's a stretch to say WINSLOW WILL BE TOP 10 THIS YEAR.

This piece gives a good insight or two on Winslow.http://www.ffmastermind.com/2006/offseason...orts/eye149.php

July Browns Eye In The Sky Report with focus on Kellen Winslow Jr. and follow up points from last month.

"It's like a bonus, getting a guy back [from injury], especially if he missed most of last season," said Titans coach Jeff Fisher. "It's almost like having an extra draft choice or something. It can really change things."

"... I've never seen anything like him. He is in the same mold as (Antonio) Gates and (Tony) Gonzalez, and eventually, he can be better." Center LeCharles Bentley commenting on Kellen Winslow Jr.

In 2004 K2 broke his leg and tore ligaments in his ankle. Last April Winslow was in a motorcycle accident where he tore his ACL and sustained internal injuries forcing him to miss his second consecutive season. Surgery resulted in complications where Winslow contracted a staph infection and lost 30 pounds. Rumors circulated. One source connected to the Browns organization said his leg-fracture was more serious than originally revealed. The source claimed the fracture was close to the ankle where un repairable tendon damage was likely, hinting it was a possible career threatening condition. Heading into this off season no one knew Winslow's true status.

Brown's GM Phil Savage buffered the media from Winslow which did not ease rumors. The initial sighting of Winslow at mini camp showed Kellen's right knee wrapped and walking with a hitch. The second sighting saw K2 running full speed and putting on quite a show. He was, talking trash, dunking the goal post after a score, and mixing it up with defenders. Was Savage playing opossum?

Savage. "You'd never know he was coming off an injury... When I have a chance to look out the window and see some of the work that he's done, you do start to get excited about the potential that he brings."

That enthusiasm is mirrored by teammates. Browns quarterback Charlie Frye: "He's basically running every route, cutting, going deep, whatever. He's one of the fastest guys on the team." Receiver Braylon Edwards said, "K2 (Winslow) is ready... I'm telling you, K2 is going to have a big year ..."

Winslow, the sixth pick of the 2004 draft, was touted as a player who would revolutionize the TE position. As a rookie K2 appeared un-coverable until his injury. During the last two years that Kellen sat idle the league has witnessed a leap in production from TEs.

In 2003, only four TEs had 55 receptions. Last year twelve TEs had at least 55 catches. The last two years as K2 sat idle the NFL has witnessed over a 35% increase in yardage from TEs and much of it has sprouted from the two-TE offense.

The two-TE offense was detailed by Bill Parcells explaining the benefits of two TEs capable of receiving and blocking. The two-TE offense creates options. It can target the weakest pass defender while maintaining a strong side rushing threat with the other TE. Keeping one or both in on pass protection makes pass rush tentative trying to guess pass protection schemes. In the running game, setting in motion a TE creates a power lead blocker, or stacking both to one side creates an extra gap spreading out the defensive front.

The benefits of the two-TE offense and the increase in TE production could pay dividends to the Browns as they boast veteran TE Steve Heiden to pair with K2. Heiden hauled in 43 receptions last year, the most since Ozzie Newsome's 62 in 1985. Both K2 and Heiden are effective blockers in addition to being legitimate receiving threats.

"When we're both out there, I can assure you it won't be me that defenses will double-team." Said Heiden of Winslow

"We can do some special things out there." Said Winslow.

"It will be huge," said Frye of Winslow's pending return.

The two-TE offense possibilities become more inviting when considering the deep threat potential that Braylon Edward offers when he eventually makes his return from his ACL injury (late October after the bye week).

Savage, " ... there are days when you watch Kellen and Braylon walk down the hall and you can't help but imagine how intriguing it would be to have them on the field together."

Joe Theismann. "In Cleveland, he will have the opportunity. The game has become a tight end's game."

Word of caution for the KWII bandwagon. Winslow carries a red flag as a durability risk. He will carry that burden until he makes it thru an entire season unscathed so proceed with reasonable caution.

"Crennel said... "We're going to have to put him into battle and see how he responds. That will be the ultimate test."

Fantasy recommendation. Prudently follow his progress during training camp/exhibition season and look for missed practices. Winslow says he's at 90% and no one knows how he'll hold up with extended action/wear and tear. If he makes thru camp without or minimal relapses then look for the Browns to use heavy doses of him early in the season, and for him to be split wide at WR until Braylon's return. Winslow could explode but another word of caution, Gates had Pro Bowl QB Drew Brees, Gonzalez has Pro Bowl QB Trent Green, Winslow has Charlie Frye with only five starts to his credit.

------------------------------------

-More at the link but not about Winslow-

Even handed anaylysis. I think Winslow could do very good at the start of the season but might wear down. If he holds up who does Cleveland have to throw to? Joe J? Dennis NorthCutt? It looks like Winslow will be the primary reciever as long as he stays healthy so if he catches five to six passes a game, reasonable if he's the primary reciever, for 60+ yards a game and a TD every other game you would be looking at 90+ catches with over 1,000 yards and over a half dozen TDs which would place him in the top three, squarely in stud TE territory, with the caveat that he remain healthy as this piece cautions along with having to rely on Frye at QB.