mrharrier's FBG Consensus Rankings Critique (1 Viewer)

[10993]

Before I get started I just want to say that FBG is by far the best fantasy product available in all of the land and this critique is not meant to cast a negative shadow on the staff's efforts in any way. The purpose is to provide a catalyst for the discussion of the rankings. The world would be a boring place if everybody shared the same thoughts and opinions.

[SIZE=21pt]OVERRATED[/SIZE]

[SIZE=14pt]1) Shaun Alexander Ranked #3[/SIZE]

Last year, Shaun Alexander was the highest-scoring running back in the land, for fantasy purposes. This year, he returns without Steve Hutchinson, his lead blocking guard, and perhaps the best run-blocking guard in the league. He returns with a big fat contract that eliminates most of the motivation he was running with last year. And the Seahawks added Nate Burleson in an effort to give Hasselbeck more options, so as not to necessitate a reliance on the run. Burleson acquitted himself well as a #2 WR behind Randy Moss, and though he's proven he can't handle the #1 slot, he should be featured prominently with D-Jax.

All of these problems add up to a down year for Alexander, who should finish no higher than #5 in fantasy points this year.

Staff with Highest Ranking: Norton #2, Hicks #2, Levin #2

Staff with Lowest Ranking: Cecil Lamney #5

mrharrier Ranking: #5

[SIZE=14pt]2) Julius Jones Ranked #16[/SIZE]

If one thing is true about FBG rankings (and you'll notice that this is a common theme throughout this review), it's that they have a difficult time letting go of guys they've become attached to in their rankings.

Jones failed miserably to live up to last year's #13 ranking, and this should come as no surprise. He's failed to make it through a season without injuries in quite a while, going back to his college days. He can't handle the workload that would be necessary for him to be successful in the Cowboys offense. Parcells knows this, and that's why he was shopping Julius on draft day. Expect Marion Barber III to take on a significantly larger role as the year rolls on and Parcells gets ever more tired of Julius.

Staff with Highest Ranking: Anderson #12, Henry #14, Brown #15

Staff with Lowest Ranking: Pasquino #29, Wimer #24, Wood #23

mrharrier Ranking: #27

[SIZE=14pt]3) Jamal Lewis Ranked #18[/SIZE]

Perhaps the most baffling ranking, so I'll make it simple: In the last two years, Lewis has averaged 14 games a year, and still ranked the #25 fantasy back in each of those two years. He's got Anderson to push him for time, and his offseason has been one disaster after another. There's no hope for him.

Staff with Highest Ranking: Wood #14, Brown #16, Bloom #16

Staff with Lowest Ranking: Norton #25, Baker #24

mrharrier Ranking: #24

[SIZE=14pt]4) Curtis Martin Ranked #29[/SIZE]

Martin is another year older, another year slower, and another year more prone to injury. He was fortunate to miss only three games last year, and still finished #29 in fantasy points. To expect him to match those numbers this year is absurd. This year, with his champion (Herm) in KC, Blaylock providing a change of pace, and young Cedric Houston pushing him for playing time, Martin's HOF career will come to an ignominious end.

Staff with Highest Ranking: Brown #23, Hicks #26, Gray #26

Staff with Lowest Ranking: Bloom #41, Pasquino #40

mrharrier Ranking: #43

Honorable Mention: Deuce McAllister

1) Reggie Bush is going to set the NFL on fire

2) Deuce won't be running much with a lead blocker in an offense designed for speed.

3) Injury or re-injury concerns are still high.

Honorable Mention: Ronnie Brown

1) Hasn't proven he can handle a full year's load

2) Is ranked ahead of Steven Jackson

[SIZE=21pt]UNDERRATED[/SIZE]

[SIZE=14pt]1) Steven Jackson Ranked #9[/SIZE]

Jackson was the #10 RB in the league last year as an under-utilized complement to the Mike Martz passing game. He's another year faster, another year stronger, and another year more accustomed to the speed of the NFL game. For relatively unproven backs like Brown (#7) to jump ahead of him in these rankings is absurd. With Martz gone, expect the offense to run through Jackson, setting up the pass for Bulger.

Staff with Highest Ranking: Rudnicki #6, Henry-Bloom-Norton-Hicks #7

Staff with Lowest Ranking: Wimer #21 , Tremblay #13, Brown #12

mrharrier Ranking: #4

[SIZE=14pt]2) Willie Parker Ranked #19[/SIZE]

Willie has got a tremendous situation set up for him. the defending Super Bowl champs have elected not to draft an elite replacement for Bettis, and seem to be putting their faith in the speed of Parker and in a wide-open passing attack that should benefit him greatly, as defenses will flee to box to contend with Roethlisberger's more-than-capable arm and the Steelers' new fleet of WRs.

Staff with Highest Ranking: Wimer #15, Gray #16

Staff with Lowest Ranking: Baker #29, Anderson #27, Hicks #24

mrharrier Ranking: #14

[SIZE=14pt]3) Reggie Bush Ranked #24[/SIZE]

As I mentioned before, Reggie Bush is going to set the NFL on fire. As a reference point, note that last year, Ronnie Brown shared carries with a back who proved to be at least as capable as Deuce can expect to be following his injury. Brown, who is nowhere near the lights-out talent Bush is, finished #23 in fantasy points among running backs.

Time waits for no man, and it's now the time of Reggie Bush in the NFL. As Deuce gets out of the way, and cedes ground and carries to Bush's otherworldly speed, strength, and explosiveness, Bush will rise to the top of fantasy circles behind NO's rebuilt OL.

FBG often overrates old backs and underrates young ones. Remember this much with running backs: youth is your friend. Youth is your friend. Youth is your friend.

Staff with Highest Ranking: Hicks #15, Bloom #17, Grant #17

Staff with Lowest Ranking: Wimer #35, Wood #32, Henry #32

mrharrier Ranking: #13

Honorable Mention: Laurence Maroney

He was highly regarded by many great coaches with knowledge of the position (Shanny, for one) after the draft, and he's landed in a perfect slot. Expect him to take over for Dillon by year's end, and be effective doing so. The only question, with regard to fantasy value, is when he takes over. At the ranking of RB38, be happy to grab him and hope it's sooner rather than later.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

One note about running backs: Youth is your friend.

Parts II (QBs), III (WRs), and IV (TEs and more) will be coming out later this week.

 

[gang-wars]

Can't wait for the WR report.

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

Perhaps the most baffling ranking, so I'll make it simple: In the last two years, Lewis has averaged 14 games a year, and still ranked the #25 fantasy back in each of those two years.  He's got Anderson and Taylor to push him for time, and his offseason has been one disaster after another.  There's no hope for him.

I'm down on Lewis this year as well, but I'm not sure I agree with these reasons.#1 Chester Taylor signed with the Vikings and Mike Anderson is 33 years old. Compared to a lot of the RBs ranked near him, he should have relatively little competition for carries.#2 What has happened to him this offseason? He spent last summer in jail but I don't recall hearing of any problems surrounding him this year. Maybe I've missed something. He did basically sign a 1-year/$6 million deal to stay so he'll also be motivated to have a big year (although he should have been similarly motivated last year and looked terrible).#3 You don't mention this, but the main reason I am down on him is that the Ravens no longer have a very good offensive line. Jonathan Ogden looked nothing like his old self and most of the other positions are unproven.#4 The team finally has a legitimate passing attack with quality weapons in Todd Heap, Derrick Mason, and Mark Clayton. Additionally, their defense is no longer as dominant as it used to be. These factors combined suggest that the team will not be able to just run Jamal Lewis as much as possible and hope their defense wins a game for them. They will need to score on offense to win games, so they should continue to pass more than they did in Lewis' best years. And, if they wind up with Steve McNair, I'd drop Lewis even further.

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

FBG often overrates old backs and underrates young ones.  Remember this much with running backs: youth is your friend.  Youth is your friend.  Youth is your friend.

this is exactly the opposite criticism that people like JoeT, MelvinTScupper, and Bagger have raised against FBG in the recent past, arguing that FBG is too influenced by the hype of young unproven RBs like Willis McGahee, Ronnie Brown, Kevin Jones, etc. while ignoring the proven production of veteran backs like Tiki Barber, Warrick Dunn, etc.

 

[10993]

#1 Chester Taylor signed with the Vikings and Mike Anderson is 33 years old. Compared to a lot of the RBs ranked near him, he should have relatively little competition for carries.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Thanks for point this out. The first version of this had Taylor, but then I added Anderson and forgot to remove Taylor.I wouldn't discount Anderson too much, though. Unlike Curtis Martin, he's an old guy coming off a 1000-yard season.

Ah, who am I kidding. Anderson's going to suck behind that line just as much as Jamal.

 

[10993]

FBG often overrates old backs and underrates young ones.  Remember this much with running backs: youth is your friend.  Youth is your friend.  Youth is your friend.

this is exactly the opposite criticism that people like JoeT, MelvinTScupper, and Bagger have raised against FBG in the recent past, arguing that FBG is too influenced by the hype of young unproven RBs like Willis McGahee, Ronnie Brown, Kevin Jones, etc. while ignoring the proven production of veteran backs like Tiki Barber, Warrick Dunn, etc.
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Tiki and Warrick are on one side of that, but Curtis Martin, Corey Dillon, Marshall Faulk, and Eddie George were all on the other side, getting ranked higher than their state (and age) at the time deserved.

 

[Perfect Tommy]

Ron Dayne at RB40 looks like a ridiculous steal to me. The Broncos just announced that he is slated to fill Mike Anderson's role from last season. He has work to do in training camp still, but I expect him to continue to impress and be ranked around RB13 by the time opening day rolls around.

 

[Texasmouth]

Everyone is really down on Julius Jones this year. Know what that means? He is due for a huge season this year. The more people hate this guy the more I think I will bump him up......

Jamal Lewis was a beast for one season. He really did nothing before or after that one tremendous season. I still think he has talent but he is no where near the back he was that one season.

Steven Jackson seems to be getting a lot of love. The guy only broke 100 yards twice last year. One of which was AT HOUSTON. Not too impressive.

Steven Jackson 16 games= 1046 Yards 8 TD

Julius Jones 12 1/2 games= 993 Yards 5 TD

Not seeing the huge upside for Steven Jackson that everyone else is seeing. The guy started all 16 games and barely broke 1000 yards. Julius was a complete bust last year, missed three and a half games and he barely had less yards and only had three less touchdowns.

Not sure how Reggie Bush could be under rated. I think he is possibly the most over rated player ever. Everyone and their dog is predicting this guy to take over the world, that is one huge hype machine, not sure how he could possibly be under rated.

Willie Parker looks great against bad teams and bad against great teams.

Det- 135 Yards

Cleveland- 130 yards

Houston- 111 yards

Tennessee- 161 yards

San Diego- 26 Yards

New England- 55 yards

Jacksonville- 55 yards

Baltimore- 63 yards

Green bay 13 yards

 

[Joe Bryant]

Thanks Mrh.

This kind of discussion is always welcome. And you provided a model format for it. Say what you differ with. Say why you differ. And make your own statement.

J

 

[LHUCKS]

this thread looks eerily similar...oh wait, it's my exact thread from '05...opening paragraph is verbatim.

 

[B-Deep]

If Steven Jackson finishes ranked above Alexander I'll eat my shoe.

 

[Sinrman]

Not bad. Don't agree with it all, but not bad...

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

How is Alexander overrated at 3, when you have him at 5?

Granted thats a whole different tier, but if your opinion wasn't skewed by you S.Jackson man love, you'd have SA at 4.

 

[Davej626]

Everyone is really down on Julius Jones this year. Know what that means? He is due for a huge season this year. The more people hate this guy the more I think I will bump him up......

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Funny. Thats not what you posted at 5am. So what changed so much in 2 1/2 hours??

I am losing faith in Julius day by day. Parcell's tried to trade the guy on draft day and then he kind of blasted the guy on the radio Friday. Really has to effect where people are going to draft him.......maybe he will have a really good training camp.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

 

[AB in DC]

this thread looks eerily similar...oh wait, it's my exact thread from '05...opening paragraph is verbatim. 

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Did he plagiarize your rankings too?

 

[reg]

this thread looks eerily similar...oh wait, it's my exact thread from '05...opening paragraph is verbatim. 

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

And here I thought I figured out another alias. Damn.

 

[QuizGuy66]

Um so did Steven Jackson eat Wimer's first born or something? That's a crazy ranking (21st among RB? 49th overall?)

Random question, and perhaps it's too difficult to achieve in the webformat, but is it possible to have ratings that throw out the highest and lowest scores (sorta like they do with Olympic diving?) Wimer's 49th-overall rating for Steven Jackson single-handedly moves his overall rating down from 8th all the way to 12th.

-QG

 

[Bri]

Harrier, thoughts on Parker ranking after the team's tried to land Duckett?

 

[gman8343]

this thread looks eerily similar...oh wait, it's my exact thread from '05...opening paragraph is verbatim. 

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

And here I thought I figured out another alias. Damn.
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

mrharrier = Joe Biden?

 

[JimmyD]

If Steven Jackson finishes ranked above Alexander I'll eat my shoe.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I'd be surprised also but if SA blows a knee please make sure to webcast this event.You don't happen to sport steel-toes do you?

 

[Winston Smith]

Um so did Steven Jackson eat Wimer's first born or something?  That's a crazy ranking (21st among RB? 49th overall?)

Random question, and perhaps it's too difficult to achieve in the webformat, but is it possible to have ratings that throw out the highest and lowest scores (sorta like they do with Olympic diving?)  Wimer's 49th-overall rating for Steven Jackson single-handedly moves his overall rating down from 8th all the way to 12th.

-QG

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Yep. I like thinking outside the box, but making S.Jax 49th overall is really a bit much.

 

[thayman]

Good info there....altough I think you are way overvaluing S. Jax....#4???? Top 10 not a huge reach for him, but top 5?? no way.

 

[Mapmaker]

Maroney may be destined for greatness that's definately open to debate but don't let the rose coloured glasses blind you just because the Pat's took him @ 21 in the draft .... need being what it is in the NFL they made a very wise decision to go RB and I have no doubt the brain trust in NE is just fine thank you very much ... you may very well be right on point with your thoughts that he may be undervalued @ RB 38 ... but until he suits up and play's I think the ranking is justified .....

What I really do question though is whether he's worthy of being the 18th RB off the board in a 14 team Dynasty .... that strikes me as being rather high ...

No matter what anyone has to say; agree or disagree with your rankings I still applaud you for shoutin' it out ...

Love the LHUCKS format too and can't wait for his rankings ... some of the best thoughts on the board in my humble opinion .....

 

[Sammy3469]

The only part I really disagree with you harrier is on Bush. His value is totally dependant on your league's scoring. PPR and leagues that give KR yardage, I could see him that high, but more than likely, I think he'll be lucky to average 20 countable touches a game in most leagues. I guess he could average 5 yds/touch, but I think that's a bit optimistic at this point.

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

this thread looks eerily similar...oh wait, it's my exact thread from '05...opening paragraph is verbatim. 

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

It is a good format.

 

[Keepers]

Steven Jackson seems to be getting a lot of love. The guy only broke 100 yards twice last year. One of which was AT HOUSTON. Not too impressive. Steven Jackson 16 games= 1046 Yards 8 TD Julius Jones 12 1/2 games= 993 Yards 5 TD Not seeing the huge upside for Steven Jackson that everyone else is seeing. The guy started all 16 games and barely broke 1000 yards. Julius was a complete bust last year, missed three and a half games and he barely had less yards and only had three less touchdowns.

I wouldn't rate Jackson as high as #4 (probably #6 or #7) but you are ignoring the full comparison as Jackson had fewer carries than JJ did in those 16 games vs 12 1/2 games ... 254 carries for Jackson, 257 carries for JJ. Only see Jackson's carries going up this year as Faulk is another year older and less of a factor while believe JJ's carries will go down as Barber is more of a factor. Also, Jackson had 320 yds receiving with 2 TDs, JJ had 218 yds receiving, O TDs.BTW Harrier, great thread for debating players.

 

[ILoveMyLions]

this thread looks eerily similar...oh wait, it's my exact thread from '05...opening paragraph is verbatim. 

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

No doubt he stole your format, ideas and opening paragraph, but that should come as a compliment to what you've done around here. It's nice to get discussion going as often as possible.

 

[LHUCKS]

this thread looks eerily similar...oh wait, it's my exact thread from '05...opening paragraph is verbatim. 

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

No doubt he stole your format, ideas and opening paragraph, but that should come as a compliment to what you've done around here. It's nice to get discussion going as often as possible.
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I don't take exception to it at all. I wish there was more critical analysis on this board.

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

Jackson was the #10 RB in the league last year as an under-utilized complement to the Mike Martz passing game.  He's another year faster, another year stronger, and another year more accustomed to the speed of the NFL game.  For relatively unproven backs like Brown (#7) to jump ahead of him in these rankings is absurd.  With Martz gone, expect the offense to run through Jackson, setting up the pass for Bulger.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I see S. Jackson and R.Brown as being very similar. They each have the physical talent to be a top three back. They are each in a team situation that has the potential to let them be great.But either one of them could also end up being this year's Kevin Jones. They have limited track records in their respective offenses, and I don't feel as comfortable projecting the STL or MIA offenses as I do the SD, KC, SEA, or NYG rushing attacks; and neither guy has had a season as good as Portis or Jordan, who appear to be in at least comparable team situations to Brown and Jackson. So that's six guys I can't rank Brown or Jackson ahead of.

Between Brown and Jackson, I like Brown better right now because he showed some really good individual run skills last year, and I trust Hudson Houck to open holes for him. But my ordering of Brown and Jackson could easily change in the next few days or weeks. It is much less likely, however, that either will break into my top six.

 

[10993]

this thread looks eerily similar...oh wait, it's my exact thread from '05...opening paragraph is verbatim. 

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

yup, i always got all my stuff deleted for not being diplomatic and everything, so i just copied your respectful hemming and hawing, and then wrote the right analysis.lee suggs? uch:

 

[LHUCKS]

and then wrote the right analysis.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

it might be this kind of tone that got you into trouble last time.

 

[10993]

Ron Dayne at RB40 looks like a ridiculous steal to me.  The Broncos just announced that he is slated to fill Mike Anderson's role from last season.  He has work to do in training camp still, but I expect him to continue to impress and be ranked around RB13 by the time opening day rolls around.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Cobbs could just as easily get all those carries. No one's really a steal when you have to draft every last RB on their roster to ensure you get the 1000 yd rusher.

 

[Texasmouth]

Everyone is really down on Julius Jones this year. Know what that means? He is due for a huge season this year. The more people hate this guy the more I think I will bump him up......

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Funny. Thats not what you posted at 5am. So what changed so much in 2 1/2 hours??

I am losing faith in Julius day by day. Parcell's tried to trade the guy on draft day and then he kind of blasted the guy on the radio Friday. Really has to effect where people are going to draft him.......maybe he will have a really good training camp.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

No, I still felt the same about him. Everyone is down on him, I am losing faith in him, he HAS TO BE due this year, or never and I hope he has a great training camp. The fact that everyone is really down on him means he will probably do well, last year a lot of people were high on him and he had a down year, which he really didn't, if he could stay healthy for a whole season he would be pretty productive. Man that is a big if though isn't it.Someone in another thread compared JJ to Fred Taylor and I am really starting to beleive that is dead on.

 

[KnowledgeReignsSupreme]

Someone in another thread compared JJ to Fred Taylor and I am really starting to beleive that is dead on.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Except Fred Taylor wowed our drawers off as a rookie. JJ... kinda eh as a rookie.

 

[Mark Wimer]

Um so did Steven Jackson eat Wimer's first born or something?  That's a crazy ranking (21st among RB? 49th overall?)

Random question, and perhaps it's too difficult to achieve in the webformat, but is it possible to have ratings that throw out the highest and lowest scores (sorta like they do with Olympic diving?)  Wimer's 49th-overall rating for Steven Jackson single-handedly moves his overall rating down from 8th all the way to 12th.

-QG

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

On Jackson: (I put this in another thread too) -- This is not so much a case of me projecting Jackson to drop in production (I have him at 1100-1200 yards rushing, 8-9 TDs rushing with 250-300 yards receiving and 1-2 TDs), as it is seeing guys who finished below him last year - Jamal Lewis (25th, 2005), Kevin Jones (31st, 2005), Ahman Green (injured most of season), DeShaun Foster (splitting time with Stephen Davis, 24th, 2005), Carnell Williams (19th, 2005) – either coming back (Lewis, Green, Jones) or improving due to more experience/a better situation (Foster, Williams). I don’t think Jackson isn’t a fantasy starter, I just don’t think he’ll be a #1-caliber fantasy RB during 2006. I'll expand in this posting to give a to Texasmouth who pointed out that Jackson had exactly 2 games over 100 yards rushing last season - and even after Coach Martz had left the building, Jackson was unimpressive down the stretch (during fantasy playoffs, btw) with only 1 TD during weeks 13-16. He also threw down stinkers like 12/6/0 rushing and 3/16/0 receiving vs. Arizona; 11/24/0 and 4/18/0 vs. Washington - both during the later half of the season, when he should have been fully up to speed in the then-offense.

In short, I'm not sold that Jackson is going to be an elite RB in the NFL; I see a lot of talent that finished below him last season in improved situations (Chester Taylor has left Baltimore, Lewis is now 2 years removed from his surgery; Stephen Davis has retired, leaving Foster with a shot to be the featured back in Carolina, and etc.) or simply with more experience (Williams); and there is a new head coach/offensive coordinator/scheme (Linehan/Olson) in St. Louis that we have yet to see how Jackson adapts to running within. In short, I do not view Jackson as a #1 fantasy RB prospect at this point.

 

[gang-wars]

Um so did Steven Jackson eat Wimer's first born or something?  That's a crazy ranking (21st among RB? 49th overall?)

Random question, and perhaps it's too difficult to achieve in the webformat, but is it possible to have ratings that throw out the highest and lowest scores (sorta like they do with Olympic diving?)  Wimer's 49th-overall rating for Steven Jackson single-handedly moves his overall rating down from 8th all the way to 12th.

-QG

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

On Jackson: (I put this in another thread too) -- This is not so much a case of me projecting Jackson to drop in production (I have him at 1100-1200 yards rushing, 8-9 TDs rushing with 250-300 yards receiving and 1-2 TDs), as it is seeing guys who finished below him last year - Jamal Lewis (25th, 2005), Kevin Jones (31st, 2005), Ahman Green (injured most of season), DeShaun Foster (splitting time with Stephen Davis, 24th, 2005), Carnell Williams (19th, 2005) – either coming back (Lewis, Green, Jones) or improving due to more experience/a better situation (Foster, Williams). I don’t think Jackson isn’t a fantasy starter, I just don’t think he’ll be a #1-caliber fantasy RB during 2006. I'll expand in this posting to give a to Texasmouth who pointed out that Jackson had exactly 2 games over 100 yards rushing last season - and even after Coach Martz had left the building, Jackson was unimpressive down the stretch (during fantasy playoffs, btw) with only 1 TD during weeks 13-16. He also threw down stinkers like 12/6/0 rushing and 3/16/0 receiving vs. Arizona; 11/24/0 and 4/18/0 vs. Washington - both during the later half of the season, when he should have been fully up to speed in the then-offense.

In short, I'm not sold that Jackson is going to be an elite RB in the NFL; I see a lot of talent that finished below him last season in improved situations (Chester Taylor has left Baltimore, Lewis is now 2 years removed from his surgery; Stephen Davis has retired, leaving Foster with a shot to be the featured back in Carolina, and etc.) or simply with more experience (Williams); and there is a new head coach/offensive coordinator/scheme (Linehan/Olson) in St. Louis that we have yet to see how Jackson adapts to running within. In short, I do not view Jackson as a #1 fantasy RB prospect at this point.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

If you look at your projected production, then go back the last 6 years.1450 yds, 10 tds =

9th in 05

9th in 04

12th in 03

14th in 02

10th in 01

14th in 2000

So 21st? Unless this is the most insane RB run in the history of fantasy football, you have him down for production that puts him in 9-12 range. Also you fail to mention Bulgers injury, and then Jamie Martins injury. 3rd string QB doesn't usually help a RB down the stretch. And without Martz (and a healthy QB) the run/pass ratio should improve. And he's young. You barely have him as a viable #2 starter, then alone #1.

To finish 21st, he's have about 950 total yards and 5-6 TDs. That just seems to be extremely low for a talented RB, and really the main goal line rusher, and main ball carrier. With the talent at WR, I don't see the Rams becoming an offensive mess, which is what would have to happen for S-JAX to put up those numbers.

 

[Capella]

this thread looks eerily similar...oh wait, it's my exact thread from '05...opening paragraph is verbatim. 

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

yup, i always got all my stuff deleted for not being diplomatic and everything, so i just copied your respectful hemming and hawing, and then wrote the right analysis.lee suggs? uch:

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Look familiar harrr? 1. (1) Tomlinson, Ladainian SDC RB

2. (2) Alexander, Shaun SEA RB

3. (3) Jones, Kevin DET RB

4. (7) Manning, Peyton IND QB

5. (4) Jackson, Steven STL RB

6. (6) McAllister, Deuce NOS RB

7. (8) Holmes, Priest KCC RB

8. (5) James, Edgerrin IND RB

9. (9) McGahee, Willis BUF RB

10. (13) Portis, Clinton WAS RB

KJ and SJ in the top 5 last year... quadruple "ouch".

 

[KnowledgeReignsSupreme]

this thread looks eerily similar...oh wait, it's my exact thread from '05...opening paragraph is verbatim. 

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

yup, i always got all my stuff deleted for not being diplomatic and everything, so i just copied your respectful hemming and hawing, and then wrote the right analysis.lee suggs? uch:

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Look familiar harrr? 1. (1) Tomlinson, Ladainian SDC RB

2. (2) Alexander, Shaun SEA RB

3. (3) Jones, Kevin DET RB

4. (7) Manning, Peyton IND QB

5. (4) Jackson, Steven STL RB

6. (6) McAllister, Deuce NOS RB

7. (8) Holmes, Priest KCC RB

8. (5) James, Edgerrin IND RB

9. (9) McGahee, Willis BUF RB

10. (13) Portis, Clinton WAS RB

KJ and SJ in the top 5 last year... quadruple "ouch".

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

 

[fruity pebbles]

this thread looks eerily similar...oh wait, it's my exact thread from '05...opening paragraph is verbatim. 

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

yup, i always got all my stuff deleted for not being diplomatic and everything, so i just copied your respectful hemming and hawing, and then wrote the right analysis.lee suggs? uch:

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Look familiar harrr? 1. (1) Tomlinson, Ladainian SDC RB

2. (2) Alexander, Shaun SEA RB

3. (3) Jones, Kevin DET RB

4. (7) Manning, Peyton IND QB

5. (4) Jackson, Steven STL RB

6. (6) McAllister, Deuce NOS RB

7. (8) Holmes, Priest KCC RB

8. (5) James, Edgerrin IND RB

9. (9) McGahee, Willis BUF RB

10. (13) Portis, Clinton WAS RB

KJ and SJ in the top 5 last year... quadruple "ouch".

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Yikes. 4 out of 10 ain't bad

 

[10993]

this thread looks eerily similar...oh wait, it's my exact thread from '05...opening paragraph is verbatim. 

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

yup, i always got all my stuff deleted for not being diplomatic and everything, so i just copied your respectful hemming and hawing, and then wrote the right analysis.lee suggs? uch:

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Look familiar harrr? 1. (1) Tomlinson, Ladainian SDC RB

2. (2) Alexander, Shaun SEA RB

3. (3) Jones, Kevin DET RB

4. (7) Manning, Peyton IND QB

5. (4) Jackson, Steven STL RB

6. (6) McAllister, Deuce NOS RB

7. (8) Holmes, Priest KCC RB

8. (5) James, Edgerrin IND RB

9. (9) McGahee, Willis BUF RB

10. (13) Portis, Clinton WAS RB

KJ and SJ in the top 5 last year... quadruple "ouch".

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

SJ finished #10 last year. If I could get a guarantee that every guy I drafted at #5 would finish in the top 10 every single year, I'd be a happy man. Only bust on that list was Kevin Jones (who everyone busted on last year). Priest and Deuce got hurt.

 

[ThisGuy]

Harrrr,

I'd give you my thoughts, but you'd still rank me last.

Your pal,

GSTH

 

[SSOG]

Ron Dayne at RB40 looks like a ridiculous steal to me.  The Broncos just announced that he is slated to fill Mike Anderson's role from last season.  He has work to do in training camp still, but I expect him to continue to impress and be ranked around RB13 by the time opening day rolls around.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Cobbs could just as easily get all those carries. No one's really a steal when you have to draft every last RB on their roster to ensure you get the 1000 yd rusher.
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Well, Cobbs couldn't "just as easily" get all those carries. It's far easier for Dayne to get those carries, since the GM and coach both say that the carries are Dayne's to lose.And on the other hand... Dayne's a 6th rounder on the projections, and Cobbs isn't projected through the first 9 rounds. If someone told me I could spend a 6th rounder and a 10th rounder and one of them would turn into a top-10 back and the other would be a complete bust, I'd JUMP at the chance. That would still be a huge steal. Heck, even if you had to get Bell in the 4th, too, to ensure you did it... it'd still be a MONUMENTAL steal. Anderson and Bell finished last season ranked 10th and 22nd overall. The 10th RB drafted was taken on average at the end of the first round, and the 22nd RB drafted was taken on average in the middle of the third round... so if you have to spend a 4th, 6th, and 10th to get 2 RBs who are the equivalent of a late 1st and mid-3rd round pick... that's still a steal (especially since there's less of a chance of busting if you grab Bell/Dayne/Cobbs than if you grab another high RB like... oh, say, Willis McGahee or Kevin Jones last season).

The problem with the Denver system is that people are DRASTICALLY underrating the amount of fantasy points it is going to produce.

Edit:

SJ finished #10 last year.  If I could get a guarantee that every guy I drafted at #5 would finish in the top 10 every single year, I'd be a happy man.  Only bust on that list was Kevin Jones (who everyone busted on last year).  Priest and Deuce got hurt.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

So you'd spend the #5 overall draft pick to net yourself a guaranteed top-10 guy, but not a 4th, 6th, and 10th to net a top-10 guy AND a decent backup option?

 

[KnowledgeReignsSupreme]

Only bust on that list was Kevin Jones (who everyone busted on last year).

Pretty sure Manning at #4 overall was a bust. So you were WAY OFF on Manning, KJ and Jackson.You cite Jackson as not a bust and ignore the fact that the dropoff from #5 to #10 is COLOSSAL (it's about the same as 10th to 20th). Ask anyone who took Portis 5ish in 2004 what they thought about him finishing 11th for RBs.

 

[SSOG]

Only bust on that list was Kevin Jones (who everyone busted on last year).

Pretty sure Manning at #4 overall was a bust. So you were WAY OFF on Manning, KJ and Jackson.

You cite Jackson as not a bust and ignore the fact that the dropoff from #5 to #10 is COLOSSAL (it's about the same as 10th to 20th). Ask anyone who took Portis 5ish in 2004 what they thought about him finishing 11th for RBs.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I happen to agree with Harrier. It's unreasonable to expect every 1st round pick to produce like a first round pick. I'm happy whenever I select a player in the first round and they produce like a first or second round pick. Anything beyond that is gravy.

 

[gang-wars]

Only bust on that list was Kevin Jones (who everyone busted on last year).

Pretty sure Manning at #4 overall was a bust. So you were WAY OFF on Manning, KJ and Jackson.

You cite Jackson as not a bust and ignore the fact that the dropoff from #5 to #10 is COLOSSAL (it's about the same as 10th to 20th). Ask anyone who took Portis 5ish in 2004 what they thought about him finishing 11th for RBs.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Taking a guy 5th and he ends up in the top 10 at the end of the year is not a bust. Everyone going 5-10 were 2nd tier RBs anyway. "colossal" is a little melodramatic.

 

[fruity pebbles]

Only bust on that list was Kevin Jones (who everyone busted on last year).

Pretty sure Manning at #4 overall was a bust. So you were WAY OFF on Manning, KJ and Jackson.

You cite Jackson as not a bust and ignore the fact that the dropoff from #5 to #10 is COLOSSAL (it's about the same as 10th to 20th). Ask anyone who took Portis 5ish in 2004 what they thought about him finishing 11th for RBs.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Taking a guy 5th and he ends up in the top 10 at the end of the year is not a bust. Everyone going 5-10 were 2nd tier RBs anyway. "colossal" is a little melodramatic.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Not to nitpick but he was his #4 RB, 5th overall. In standard scoring leagues he finished as the #11 RB and was only 30 points from being the #20 RB.

 

[gang-wars]

Only bust on that list was Kevin Jones (who everyone busted on last year).

Pretty sure Manning at #4 overall was a bust. So you were WAY OFF on Manning, KJ and Jackson.

You cite Jackson as not a bust and ignore the fact that the dropoff from #5 to #10 is COLOSSAL (it's about the same as 10th to 20th). Ask anyone who took Portis 5ish in 2004 what they thought about him finishing 11th for RBs.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Taking a guy 5th and he ends up in the top 10 at the end of the year is not a bust. Everyone going 5-10 were 2nd tier RBs anyway. "colossal" is a little melodramatic.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Not to nitpick but he was his #4 RB, 5th overall. In standard scoring leagues he finished as the #11 RB and was only 30 points from being the #20 RB.
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

And 30 pts away from 7th.What's the point? Very few people had Tiki/Jordan/Portis in the top 8 last year. People always jump up.

Taking S-JAX 5th overall last year, I don't feel like he was a bust at 1,350 10 tds.

Edit: Not to mention the injuries to Bulger, and then Martin. Along with a new coach midseason. If players get a pass because of injuries, then it makes sense to assume SJAX would have done even better with some stability and a healthy QB. Regardless, picking S-JAX 5th while optimistic, worked out fairly well.

 

[Mark Wimer]

Um so did Steven Jackson eat Wimer's first born or something?  That's a crazy ranking (21st among RB? 49th overall?)

Random question, and perhaps it's too difficult to achieve in the webformat, but is it possible to have ratings that throw out the highest and lowest scores (sorta like they do with Olympic diving?)  Wimer's 49th-overall rating for Steven Jackson single-handedly moves his overall rating down from 8th all the way to 12th.

-QG

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

On Jackson: (I put this in another thread too) -- This is not so much a case of me projecting Jackson to drop in production (I have him at 1100-1200 yards rushing, 8-9 TDs rushing with 250-300 yards receiving and 1-2 TDs), as it is seeing guys who finished below him last year - Jamal Lewis (25th, 2005), Kevin Jones (31st, 2005), Ahman Green (injured most of season), DeShaun Foster (splitting time with Stephen Davis, 24th, 2005), Carnell Williams (19th, 2005) – either coming back (Lewis, Green, Jones) or improving due to more experience/a better situation (Foster, Williams). I don’t think Jackson isn’t a fantasy starter, I just don’t think he’ll be a #1-caliber fantasy RB during 2006. I'll expand in this posting to give a to Texasmouth who pointed out that Jackson had exactly 2 games over 100 yards rushing last season - and even after Coach Martz had left the building, Jackson was unimpressive down the stretch (during fantasy playoffs, btw) with only 1 TD during weeks 13-16. He also threw down stinkers like 12/6/0 rushing and 3/16/0 receiving vs. Arizona; 11/24/0 and 4/18/0 vs. Washington - both during the later half of the season, when he should have been fully up to speed in the then-offense.

In short, I'm not sold that Jackson is going to be an elite RB in the NFL; I see a lot of talent that finished below him last season in improved situations (Chester Taylor has left Baltimore, Lewis is now 2 years removed from his surgery; Stephen Davis has retired, leaving Foster with a shot to be the featured back in Carolina, and etc.) or simply with more experience (Williams); and there is a new head coach/offensive coordinator/scheme (Linehan/Olson) in St. Louis that we have yet to see how Jackson adapts to running within. In short, I do not view Jackson as a #1 fantasy RB prospect at this point.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

If you look at your projected production, then go back the last 6 years.1450 yds, 10 tds =

9th in 05

9th in 04

12th in 03

14th in 02

10th in 01

14th in 2000

So 21st? Unless this is the most insane RB run in the history of fantasy football, you have him down for production that puts him in 9-12 range. Also you fail to mention Bulgers injury, and then Jamie Martins injury. 3rd string QB doesn't usually help a RB down the stretch. And without Martz (and a healthy QB) the run/pass ratio should improve. And he's young. You barely have him as a viable #2 starter, then alone #1.

To finish 21st, he's have about 950 total yards and 5-6 TDs. That just seems to be extremely low for a talented RB, and really the main goal line rusher, and main ball carrier. With the talent at WR, I don't see the Rams becoming an offensive mess, which is what would have to happen for S-JAX to put up those numbers.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Look guys, when you compare actual production for any particular year or set of years to a set of projections for a subset of players for any year or set of years, you are going to find that the projections are very likely to be skewed higher. Why is this? Because, except in circumstances like Daunte Culpepper where there is a known, very probably limiting injury coming into a season, it is impossible to predict the circumstances that will cost various players 1, 2 or 3 games in a season. Bruised ribs, slightly pulled hamstrings, etc. Look at 2005, 2005 Total Year Stats - FP Totals - just as an example. Of the top 24 RBs, only 9 actually played in all 16 games. But before the fact, it is impossible to say with certainty which backs will miss a few games. We don't have a crystal ball, just our projection of probable outcomes.

One must almost always necessarily project our set of RBs to play in all 16 games. Thus, just because my projection of Steven Jackson would historically have landed him in the 9-12 range does not invalidate my ranking of him at 21 before the actual 2006 season vs. the other 20 guys ranked ahead of him because I am also projecting all of them to play a full slate of 16 games. Again, I have no way to tell which ones will suffer lost production/lost game time due to injury/family deaths/car accidents - whatever. This is definitely not insanity. It is an unavoidable flaw in doing projections. We aim to predict probable outcomes, that is all we can possibly do.

Thus, comparing my projection for Jackson with historical production numbers is not a basis for indicting this particular projection, nor is it a case for my insanity.

In addition, let me comment that the fantasy point spread between Kevin Jones and Steven Jackson on my board at this point (from #14-#21) is 17 fantasy points over the whole season, or about 10 yards a game. The structure of rankings forces me to put one guy ahead of another in order, but we're not talking about a huge range of fantasy points. As I said in my original post, I see Jackson as a fantasy starter, but not as an elite-level NFL RB (not a #1 fantasy starter).

We'll see how he develops in the new offense during training camp.

 

[Bankerguy]

Um so did Steven Jackson eat Wimer's first born or something?  That's a crazy ranking (21st among RB? 49th overall?)

Random question, and perhaps it's too difficult to achieve in the webformat, but is it possible to have ratings that throw out the highest and lowest scores (sorta like they do with Olympic diving?)  Wimer's 49th-overall rating for Steven Jackson single-handedly moves his overall rating down from 8th all the way to 12th.

-QG

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

On Jackson: (I put this in another thread too) -- This is not so much a case of me projecting Jackson to drop in production (I have him at 1100-1200 yards rushing, 8-9 TDs rushing with 250-300 yards receiving and 1-2 TDs), as it is seeing guys who finished below him last year - Jamal Lewis (25th, 2005), Kevin Jones (31st, 2005), Ahman Green (injured most of season), DeShaun Foster (splitting time with Stephen Davis, 24th, 2005), Carnell Williams (19th, 2005) – either coming back (Lewis, Green, Jones) or improving due to more experience/a better situation (Foster, Williams). I don’t think Jackson isn’t a fantasy starter, I just don’t think he’ll be a #1-caliber fantasy RB during 2006. I'll expand in this posting to give a to Texasmouth who pointed out that Jackson had exactly 2 games over 100 yards rushing last season - and even after Coach Martz had left the building, Jackson was unimpressive down the stretch (during fantasy playoffs, btw) with only 1 TD during weeks 13-16. He also threw down stinkers like 12/6/0 rushing and 3/16/0 receiving vs. Arizona; 11/24/0 and 4/18/0 vs. Washington - both during the later half of the season, when he should have been fully up to speed in the then-offense.

In short, I'm not sold that Jackson is going to be an elite RB in the NFL; I see a lot of talent that finished below him last season in improved situations (Chester Taylor has left Baltimore, Lewis is now 2 years removed from his surgery; Stephen Davis has retired, leaving Foster with a shot to be the featured back in Carolina, and etc.) or simply with more experience (Williams); and there is a new head coach/offensive coordinator/scheme (Linehan/Olson) in St. Louis that we have yet to see how Jackson adapts to running within. In short, I do not view Jackson as a #1 fantasy RB prospect at this point.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

If you look at your projected production, then go back the last 6 years.1450 yds, 10 tds =

9th in 05

9th in 04

12th in 03

14th in 02

10th in 01

14th in 2000

So 21st? Unless this is the most insane RB run in the history of fantasy football, you have him down for production that puts him in 9-12 range. Also you fail to mention Bulgers injury, and then Jamie Martins injury. 3rd string QB doesn't usually help a RB down the stretch. And without Martz (and a healthy QB) the run/pass ratio should improve. And he's young. You barely have him as a viable #2 starter, then alone #1.

To finish 21st, he's have about 950 total yards and 5-6 TDs. That just seems to be extremely low for a talented RB, and really the main goal line rusher, and main ball carrier. With the talent at WR, I don't see the Rams becoming an offensive mess, which is what would have to happen for S-JAX to put up those numbers.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Look guys, when you compare actual production for any particular year or set of years to a set of projections for a subset of players for any year or set of years, you are going to find that the projections are very likely to be skewed higher. Why is this? Because, except in circumstances like Daunte Culpepper where there is a known, very probably limiting injury coming into a season, it is impossible to predict the circumstances that will cost various players 1, 2 or 3 games in a season. Bruised ribs, slightly pulled hamstrings, etc. Look at 2005, 2005 Total Year Stats - FP Totals - just as an example. Of the top 24 RBs, only 9 actually played in all 16 games. But before the fact, it is impossible to say with certainty which backs will miss a few games. We don't have a crystal ball, just our projection of probable outcomes.

One must almost always necessarily project our set of RBs to play in all 16 games. Thus, just because my projection of Steven Jackson would historically have landed him in the 9-12 range does not invalidate my ranking of him at 21 before the actual 2006 season vs. the other 20 guys ranked ahead of him because I am also projecting all of them to play a full slate of 16 games. Again, I have no way to tell which ones will suffer lost production/lost game time due to injury/family deaths/car accidents - whatever. This is definitely not insanity. It is an unavoidable flaw in doing projections. We aim to predict probable outcomes, that is all we can possibly do.

Thus, comparing my projection for Jackson with historical production numbers is not a basis for indicting this particular projection, nor is it a case for my insanity.

In addition, let me comment that the fantasy point spread between Kevin Jones and Steven Jackson on my board at this point (from #14-#21) is 17 fantasy points over the whole season, or about 10 yards a game. The structure of rankings forces me to put one guy ahead of another in order, but we're not talking about a huge range of fantasy points. As I said in my original post, I see Jackson as a fantasy starter, but not as an elite-level NFL RB (not a #1 fantasy starter).

We'll see how he develops in the new offense during training camp.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

 

[QuizGuy66]

Didn't think what went on was purge worthy as what I said was meant in good humor (everyone's got an opinion after all, and disagreement is a healthy thing) but no worries, don't wanna upset the apple cart and all that. Just have to agree to disagree with Mark about S Jackson. Of course some of the fun of these rankings comes from the disparity in scoring systems anyhow (such as with the goal-line specialist) as well as the takes each individual has. If talking about sanity was taken the wrong way, I apologize - it's the disparity of opinion that makes this place great.

On a different note, it'll be interesting to see where Palmer ends up fitting in in all of this - I'd love to think I could get him at the end of Round 5 or even Round 7 of my 10-team league, but barring a set-back I heartily doubt that.

I will stick to my contention that an average that throws out the high and low would be a valuable tool to see where the center of gravity of most opinion is, versus the outlier or two that might be out there.

Thanks for all the hard work and effort that goes into the rankings. To the extent that fantasy football is hard work of course

-QG