Must take Brady or Brees? 12teams; All TD's 6 pts; 0.5 ppr. (1 Viewer)

[Alpine]

Got the draft order last night, I'm #5 out of 12. It's looking like the first 4 guys are all going with an RB, though either Brady or Brees may get taken, but I doubt both will fall that early.

Looking at the historical #'s from our league, it's looking like I absolutely have to go Brady/Brees in the first round. Here are the numbers of the top scorers the past couple years:

(Player/Season Points)

2007:

Brady: 538

Peyton: 378

Brees: 358

Roethlisberger: 356

LT: 339

2008:

Brees: 421

Rivers: 387

A. Rodgers: 386

Cutler: 372

Warner: 367

Manning: 348

McNabb: 328

Cassel: 324

DeAngelo: 297

Pennington: 292

Romo: 291

Garrard: 283

*Draft Dominator appears to agree, ranking Brady as the 4th best player. I'm normally on board with the philosophy of "load up on RB/WR depth while your friends take the big name QB's," but this year I don't know if I can dismiss the huge difference between Brady/Brees and the next crop of QB's.

Thoughts?

 

[Callas Disregard]

Got the draft order last night, I'm #5 out of 12. It's looking like the first 4 guys are all going with an RB, though either Brady or Brees may get taken, but I doubt both will fall that early.Looking at the historical #'s from our league, it's looking like I absolutely have to go Brady/Brees in the first round. Here are the numbers of the top scorers the past couple years:(Player/Season Points)2007:Brady: 538Peyton: 378Brees: 358Roethlisberger: 3562008:Brees: 421Rivers: 387A. Rodgers: 386Cutler: 372Warner: 367Manning: 348McNabb: 328Cassel: 324DeAngelo: 297Pennington: 292Romo: 291Garrard: 283*Draft Dominator appears to agree, ranking Brady as the 4th best player. I'm normally on board with the philosophy of "load up on RB/WR depth while your friends take the big name QB's, but this year I don't know if I can dismiss the huge difference between Brady/Brees and the next crop of QB's. Thoughts?

How many points they score has nothing to do with anything. You need to read up on the VBD articles on this site.

 

[acme]

Got the draft order last night, I'm #5 out of 12. It's looking like the first 4 guys are all going with an RB, though either Brady or Brees may get taken, but I doubt both will fall that early.Looking at the historical #'s from our league, it's looking like I absolutely have to go Brady/Brees in the first round. Here are the numbers of the top scorers the past couple years:(Player/Season Points)2007:Brady: 538Peyton: 378Brees: 358Roethlisberger: 3562008:Brees: 421Rivers: 387A. Rodgers: 386Cutler: 372Warner: 367Manning: 348McNabb: 328Cassel: 324DeAngelo: 297Pennington: 292Romo: 291Garrard: 283*Draft Dominator appears to agree, ranking Brady as the 4th best player. I'm normally on board with the philosophy of "load up on RB/WR depth while your friends take the big name QB's, but this year I don't know if I can dismiss the huge difference between Brady/Brees and the next crop of QB's. Thoughts?

i think i agree with you on this: at 6 points/per you gotta go with the stud QB at 1.05. however, how do you know who the stud will be? there is no way to tell if rogers, rivers, or manning won't do just as well (or better) as brady and/or brees. past performance does not necessarily equal future results. if the guy you take in your first round is out-scored by the guy someone else takes in their 3rd round you've completely shot yourself in the foot. it is a risky strategy that could pay off big--IF you correctly choose the right guy.that all being said, if brady was there for my #1.05, i'd take him.

 

[acme]

Got the draft order last night, I'm #5 out of 12. It's looking like the first 4 guys are all going with an RB, though either Brady or Brees may get taken, but I doubt both will fall that early.

Looking at the historical #'s from our league, it's looking like I absolutely have to go Brady/Brees in the first round. Here are the numbers of the top scorers the past couple years:

(Player/Season Points)

2007:

Brady: 538

Peyton: 378

Brees: 358

Roethlisberger: 356

2008:

Brees: 421

Rivers: 387

A. Rodgers: 386

Cutler: 372

Warner: 367

Manning: 348

McNabb: 328

Cassel: 324

DeAngelo: 297

Pennington: 292

Romo: 291

Garrard: 283

*Draft Dominator appears to agree, ranking Brady as the 4th best player. I'm normally on board with the philosophy of "load up on RB/WR depth while your friends take the big name QB's, but this year I don't know if I can dismiss the huge difference between Brady/Brees and the next crop of QB's.

Thoughts?

How many points they score has nothing everything to do with anything everything. You need to read up on the VBD articles on this site.

fixed

 

[Alpine]

How many points they score has nothing to do with anything. You need to read up on the VBD articles on this site.

I've been reading this site for 2 years, long time lurker, first time poster.Almost every VBD article has been committed to memory at this point. So that's exactly my point: All TD's are 6 points in my league...but the 'conventional wisdom' of most on this board is based on passing TD's being 4 points.The guy that had Brady in 2007 ran away with the league, finishing the regular season with one loss. Unfortunately for him the Pats had a single off week fantasy-wise, I had Adrian Peterson as a rookie, and I marched my way to the championship.If Brady goes for 32+ TD's this year, taking him at 1.05 will be justified. If he goes for 40 TD's, I'll waltz into the playoffs. Anyone diasgree?

 

[kerpow]

How many points they score has nothing to do with anything. You need to read up on the VBD articles on this site.

I've been reading this site for 2 years, long time lurker, first time poster.Almost every VBD article has been committed to memory at this point. So that's exactly my point: All TD's are 6 points in my league...but the 'conventional wisdom' of most on this board is based on passing TD's being 4 points.The guy that had Brady in 2007 ran away with the league, finishing the regular season with one loss. Unfortunately for him the Pats had a single off week fantasy-wise, I had Adrian Peterson as a rookie, and I marched my way to the championship.If Brady goes for 32+ TD's this year, taking him at 1.05 will be justified. If he goes for 40 TD's, I'll waltz into the playoffs. Anyone diasgree?

Compare the end of season numbers of QB1 and RB12 with QB12 and RB1. This should tell you whether your strategy is sound, regardless of scoring system.

 

[Alpine]

Compare the end of season numbers of QB1 and RB12 with QB12 and RB1. This should tell you whether your strategy is sound, regardless of scoring system.

Last year:QB 1: Brees: 421QB 12: Thigpen: 279[142 point difference]RB 1: DeAngelo: 297RB 12: Leon Wash.: 217[79 point difference]I would think this supports my strategy? Am I missing something?

 

[Keith1]

Compare the end of season numbers of QB1 and RB12 with QB12 and RB1. This should tell you whether your strategy is sound, regardless of scoring system.

Last year:QB 1: Brees: 421QB 12: Thigpen: 279[142 point difference]RB 1: DeAngelo: 297RB 12: Leon Wash.: 217[79 point difference]I would think this supports my strategy? Am I missing something?

I could not agree more. If you have the opportunity to get a monster stud QB, you do it. Especially in a 6 point passing TD league. The guys who wait on QBs are going to sit there--hoping they can get better than predicted performance from their QB--sometimes mixing and matching between QBs. If Brady or Brees merely performs as predicted, then you've hit a home run. The guys who wait on their QB (I mean the guys who wait late, not the guys picking Manning, Rodgers, etc..) have to hope their guy EXCEEDS predictions in order to justify their draft philosophy. I never bought into that argument.

 

[Ramblin Wreck]

How many points they score has nothing to do with anything. You need to read up on the VBD articles on this site.

I've been reading this site for 2 years, long time lurker, first time poster.Almost every VBD article has been committed to memory at this point. So that's exactly my point: All TD's are 6 points in my league...but the 'conventional wisdom' of most on this board is based on passing TD's being 4 points.The guy that had Brady in 2007 ran away with the league, finishing the regular season with one loss. Unfortunately for him the Pats had a single off week fantasy-wise, I had Adrian Peterson as a rookie, and I marched my way to the championship.If Brady goes for 32+ TD's this year, taking him at 1.05 will be justified. If he goes for 40 TD's, I'll waltz into the playoffs. Anyone diasgree?

Compare the end of season numbers of QB1 and RB12 with QB12 and RB1. This should tell you whether your strategy is sound, regardless of scoring system.

How do you figure that?

 

[plymkr]

In our league the QB gets 4 pts per TD, but the top 5 scorers in the league were still QBs by a high margin over RBs. 386 highest qb next 318...RBs highest 298, 296 Turner & DWill) The scoring in our league awards bonus points for long TD's. 1 15-20 2 21-30, 3 31-40, & 4 40 or over. (yes unpredictable, but its always been that way)

I am looking at Brady at 1.04 because he has Moss & co. there. It is a practically guaranteed 300+ points & a very safe pick. I've never done this before. (last yr got Warner in 9th.) That was lucky, because w/o him I was in big trouble. Last yr. I chose St. Jackson at 1.04 and was scared or disappointed all year. I think I might pull the trigger on Brady this year and find RB depth in the middle rounds. Help convince me, I usually dfraft RB RB RB/WR etc..

 

[karmarooster]

Compare the end of season numbers of QB1 and RB12 with QB12 and RB1. This should tell you whether your strategy is sound, regardless of scoring system.

Last year:QB 1: Brees: 421QB 12: Thigpen: 279[142 point difference]RB 1: DeAngelo: 297RB 12: Leon Wash.: 217[79 point difference]I would think this supports my strategy? Am I missing something?

what about the QB1 vs. QB12 and then RB1 vs. RB24, if you start 2 RBs? and if you have a flex what about RB30 or 36? thats' where you're going to see the real difference.