My Early 2011 Dynasty QB Rankings (1 Viewer)

[Jersey35]

I'm going to preface these rankings by explaining that I take a different approach to ranking my players. I believe that to be truly successful in a dynasty league, you need to focus on more than the positional requirements of your league: you need to focus on filling a number of positions within each position. For example, I look for different traits when going after the guy I expect to start on a weekly basis, the guy to fill in if/when he has a bye or injury, and the bench players I hope to use in the future or trade away soon.

I also believe that average football players do not belong on your fantasy team except as a backup to your starter - and bench players should ALL be high-upside, unless they are the real-life backup to one of your starters.

To this end, my ranking system actually uses a number of different formulas to rank players based on risk-aversion, upside, short and long-term expectations, etc. This list is merely one way to sort my rankings. The following list does not account for injury risk and selects highly for upside and youth. It also looks out only three years (though it offers a bonus per year under 35). The best use of these rankings would be for a team rebuilding, startup team not necessarily looking to win in year one, or a team that is not risk-averse.

1 Rodgers, Aaron GBP

2 Vick, Michael PHI

3 Stafford, Matthew DET

4 Rivers, Philip SDC

5 Ryan, Matt ATL

6 Bradford, Sam STL

7 Brees, Drew NOS

8 Freeman, Josh TBB

9 Romo, Tony DAL

10 Brady, Tom NEP

11 Schaub, Matt HOU

12 Manning, Peyton IND

13 Roethlisberger, Ben PIT

14 Tebow, Tim DEN

15 Sanchez, Mark NYJ

16 Cassel, Matt KCC

17 Flacco, Joe BAL

18 Manning, Eli NYG

19 Cutler, Jay CHI

20 Fitzpatrick, Ryan BUF

21 McCoy, Colt CLE

22 Webb, Joe MIN

23 Kolb, Kevin PHI

24 Orton, Kyle DEN

25 John Skelton ARZ

By no means does this list mean that I recommend drafting Stafford over Philip Rivers. What it means is that if you drafted Rivers, depending upon your team situation, you might wish to move him to obtain Stafford and and upgrade elsewhere.

Enjoy and flame away!

 

[nlgb1]

wow. i dont have a problem with people ranking stafford high, thats just a matter of opinion. but i dont see how you can possibly justify putting him above rivers

 

[Jersey35]

wow. i dont have a problem with people ranking stafford high, thats just a matter of opinion. but i dont see how you can possibly justify putting him above rivers

Thanks for the response.1st, because I believe it's very likely that this time next year (assuming there is a 2011 season) we'll be discussing Stafford in the same breath as Rivers fantasy-wise - and he's 6 years younger.

2nd, because as I said in the OP, this list does not account for the injury-risk and small sample-size of Stafford. In my alternate ranking (which accounts for things like injury-risk and consistency), Rivers is the #1QB with Stafford at 10.

1 Rivers, Philip SDC

2 Rodgers, Aaron GBP

3 Brees, Drew NOS

4 Brady, Tom NEP

5 Manning, Peyton IND

6 Ryan, Matt ATL

7 Vick, Michael PHI

8 Manning, Eli NYG

9 Romo, Tony DAL

10 Stafford, Matthew DET

 

[nlgb1]

wow. i dont have a problem with people ranking stafford high, thats just a matter of opinion. but i dont see how you can possibly justify putting him above rivers

Thanks for the response.1st, because I believe it's very likely that this time next year (assuming there is a 2011 season) we'll be discussing Stafford in the same breath as Rivers fantasy-wise - and he's 6 years younger.

2nd, because as I said in the OP, this list does not account for the injury-risk and small sample-size of Stafford. In my alternate ranking (which accounts for things like injury-risk and consistency), Rivers is the #1QB with Stafford at 10.

1 Rivers, Philip SDC

2 Rodgers, Aaron GBP

3 Brees, Drew NOS

4 Brady, Tom NEP

5 Manning, Peyton IND

6 Ryan, Matt ATL

7 Vick, Michael PHI

8 Manning, Eli NYG

9 Romo, Tony DAL

10 Stafford, Matthew DET

yup. you lost me

 

[FUBAR]

The following list does not account for injury risk and selects highly for upside and youth. The best use of these rankings would be for a team rebuilding, startup team not necessarily looking to win in year one, or a team that is not risk-averse.1 Rodgers, Aaron GBP 2 Vick, Michael PHI 3 Stafford, Matthew DET 4 Rivers, Philip SDC 5 Ryan, Matt ATL 6 Bradford, Sam STL 7 Brees, Drew NOS 8 Freeman, Josh TBB 9 Romo, Tony DAL 10 Brady, Tom NEP 11 Schaub, Matt HOU 12 Manning, Peyton IND 13 Roethlisberger, Ben PIT 14 Tebow, Tim DEN 15 Sanchez, Mark NYJ 16 Cassel, Matt KCC 17 Flacco, Joe BAL 18 Manning, Eli NYG 19 Cutler, Jay CHI 20 Fitzpatrick, Ryan BUF 21 McCoy, Colt CLE 22 Webb, Joe MIN 23 Kolb, Kevin PHI 24 Orton, Kyle DEN25 John Skelton ARZBy no means does this list mean that I recommend drafting Stafford over Philip Rivers. What it means is that if you drafted Rivers, depending upon your team situation, you might wish to move him to obtain Stafford and and upgrade elsewhere.Enjoy and flame away!

So basically this list is pure long term upside? Stafford should still be below Bradford, Freeman, and maybe Tebow. Seems more like a list of guys to target than a ranking. My top 10 using your criteria:1 Rodgers, Aaron GBP 2 Bradford, Sam STL3 Freeman, Josh TBB 4 Rivers, Philip SDC 5 Ryan, Matt ATL 6 Stafford, Matthew DET7 Vick, Michael PHI 8 Tebow, Tim DEN 9 Cutler, Jay CHI 10 Flacco, Joe BAL

 

[flc735]

i get your ranking, jersey.

stafford has a high upside because of calvin, best, pettigrew and if he stays healthy, he'll throw the up to ball 650 times in a season. that makes a 30+ td's and 4500+ yard season achievable. those numbers are outside of some more talented qb's reach because of their teams. rothy, flacco, ryan and sanchez can never get there without drastic changes to their offense (idk why you have ryan so high though). eli use to be there but his team his converting to a pass heavy offense

 

[FUBAR]

i get your ranking, jersey.

stafford has a high upside because of calvin, best, pettigrew and if he stays healthy, he'll throw the up to ball 650 times in a season. that makes a 30+ td's and 4500+ yard season achievable. those numbers are outside of some more talented qb's reach because of their teams. rothy, flacco, ryan and sanchez can never get there without drastic changes to their offense (idk why you have ryan so high though). eli use to be there but his team his converting to a pass heavy offense

Ryan was a top 10 QB last year. #5 is quite reasonable. Freeman at #8 is quite low considering he was top 7 in his 2nd year with an incredibly young receiving corps and a rookie (cast-off) RB.

 

[Jersey35]

i get your ranking, jersey. stafford has a high upside because of calvin, best, pettigrew and if he stays healthy, he'll throw the up to ball 650 times in a season. that makes a 30+ td's and 4500+ yard season achievable. those numbers are outside of some more talented qb's reach because of their teams. rothy, flacco, ryan and sanchez can never get there without drastic changes to their offense (idk why you have ryan so high though). eli use to be there but his team his converting to a pass heavy offense

This. I like Stafford based on the offensive players around him - as compared to Bradford, whom I have slightly more talented, but less pieces of the puzzle put together. Regarding the Freeman ranking, I'm not convinced that the offense in Tampa is designed for a 30+ TD QB - though Freeman certainly has some tools there.FUBAR, it's close to "just long term upside" but not quite. Some consideration is given to situation and opportunity. I also only project out 3 years (except for a small bonus based on age below 35)Think of it this way: If I had my "starter" (let's say Philip Rivers, who is my number 1 "starter") and I was competitive right now, then this is the list I'd use to ascertain who I'd like on my bench behind him.FWIW, the formula I use requires I blindly plug about 9 different metrics for each player using pre-established criteria. When I plug in those numbers, it spits out my rankings. I feel a bit weird having Stafford up at #3, but my little system has worked quite well for me in the past.Sometimes guys don't work out - it's all a matter of hitting on more than I miss, and always having enough high-upside guys to fill the gaps.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

To offer an assist, the number to the right is the age of each QB, those in red over age 30. Peyton Manning is the only QB over age of 35 so he is the oldest on this list.

1 Rodgers, Aaron GBP = Age: 27.9 |

2 Vick, Michael PHI = Age: 31.3 |

3 Stafford, Matthew DET = Age: 23.7 |

4 Rivers, Philip SDC = Age: 29.9 |

5 Ryan, Matt ATL = Age: 26.4 |

6 Bradford, Sam STL = Age: 23.10 |

7 Brees, Drew NOS = Age: 32.8 |

8 Freeman, Josh TBB = Age: 23.8 |

9 Romo, Tony DAL = Age: 32.5 |

10 Brady, Tom NEP = Age: 33.1 |

11 Schaub, Matt HOU = Age: 30.3 |

12 Manning, Peyton IND = Age: 35.6 |

13 Roethlisberger, Ben PIT = Age: 29.6 |

14 Tebow, Tim DEN = Age: 24.1 |

15 Sanchez, Mark NYJ = Age: 24.10 |

16 Cassel, Matt KCC = Age: 29.4 |

17 Flacco, Joe BAL = Age: 26.8 |

18 Manning, Eli NYG = Age: 30.8 |

19 Cutler, Jay CHI = Age: 28.5 |

20 Fitzpatrick, Ryan BUF = Age: 28.10 |

21 McCoy, Colt CLE = Age: 25.0 |

22 Webb, Joe MIN = Age: 24.10 |

23 Kolb, Kevin PHI = Age: 26.0 |

24 Orton, Kyle DEN = Age: 28.10 |

25 John Skelton ARZ = Age: 23.6 |

I would imagine that someone could compile the injury/suspension history of each QB as well to assist in determining downside risk based off of those factors.

 

[joey]

i get your ranking, jersey. stafford has a high upside because of calvin, best, pettigrew and if he stays healthy, he'll throw the up to ball 650 times in a season. that makes a 30+ td's and 4500+ yard season achievable. those numbers are outside of some more talented qb's reach because of their teams. rothy, flacco, ryan and sanchez can never get there without drastic changes to their offense (idk why you have ryan so high though). eli use to be there but his team his converting to a pass heavy offense

This. I like Stafford based on the offensive players around him - as compared to Bradford, whom I have slightly more talented, but less pieces of the puzzle put together. Regarding the Freeman ranking, I'm not convinced that the offense in Tampa is designed for a 30+ TD QB - though Freeman certainly has some tools there.FUBAR, it's close to "just long term upside" but not quite. Some consideration is given to situation and opportunity. I also only project out 3 years (except for a small bonus based on age below 35)Think of it this way: If I had my "starter" (let's say Philip Rivers, who is my number 1 "starter") and I was competitive right now, then this is the list I'd use to ascertain who I'd like on my bench behind him.FWIW, the formula I use requires I blindly plug about 9 different metrics for each player using pre-established criteria. When I plug in those numbers, it spits out my rankings. I feel a bit weird having Stafford up at #3, but my little system seems to work: 5 championship appearances in a row with two consecutive wins.Sometimes guys don't work out - it's all a matter of hitting on more than I miss, and always having enough high-upside guys to fill the gaps.

Love the rankings seeing as i just traded for Stafford in my dynasty league :XAny RB or WR rankings coming? Love to see what your formulas spit out that give you such great success.

 

[higgins]

Flacco, Eli and Cutler should be a tier above Tebow, Sanchez and Cassel (as opposed to being ranked below), and I honestly don't see how it could be viewed otherwise.

 

[Whoosah]

I get what you are trying to do with this list, but there is a lot wrong with it. Stafford at #3? Why doesn't he complete a full season and put up numbers before we anoint him as an elite QB. Also Tebow and Sanchez are a little high on that list. Eli is too low even though he put up top 5 yards and TDs this past season.

I get the potential concept, but what is the window of that time frame? I do not see Bradford being an elite QB for another 2-3 years. Is this list for those waiting for that amount of time?

 

[FUBAR]

Flacco, Eli and Cutler should be a tier above Tebow, Sanchez and Cassel (as opposed to being ranked below), and I honestly don't see how it could be viewed otherwise.

You really don't see how Cassel, a top 5 QB in 2010, can be viewed as higher than those 3?

 

[higgins]

Flacco, Eli and Cutler should be a tier above Tebow, Sanchez and Cassel (as opposed to being ranked below), and I honestly don't see how it could be viewed otherwise.

You really don't see how Cassel, a top 5 QB in 2010, can be viewed as higher than those 3?

OK -- I stated that wrong. I can see how it could be viewed that Cassel is comparatively better (regardless of whether I think it was a fluke year for him, Bowe and the Chiefs), but the statement stands for Sanchez and Tebow.

 

[Crippler]

I have a hard time seeing how Ryan is always so much higher than Flacco in the end. I think Baltimore has done a much better job bringing in younger weapons(drafting 2 TE's last year and adding Boldin) than Atlanta. He has Roddy for the near future. Gonzo about to retire and Turner age becoming a factor.

Personally I have Flacco ahead of Ryan but these rankings where he is 12 QB's less always seems to be lacking something. Because historical records dont show it either.

 

[eakfootball]

1 Rodgers

2 Vick

3 Bradford

4 Rivers

5 Roethlisburger

6 Freeman

7 Ryan

8 Brees

9 Brady

10 P. Manning

11 Romo

12 Stafford

13 Schaub

14 Cassel

15 E. Manning

*Andrew Luck will be in the top 3 when he comes out

 

[Jersey35]

i get your ranking, jersey. stafford has a high upside because of calvin, best, pettigrew and if he stays healthy, he'll throw the up to ball 650 times in a season. that makes a 30+ td's and 4500+ yard season achievable. those numbers are outside of some more talented qb's reach because of their teams. rothy, flacco, ryan and sanchez can never get there without drastic changes to their offense (idk why you have ryan so high though). eli use to be there but his team his converting to a pass heavy offense

This. I like Stafford based on the offensive players around him - as compared to Bradford, whom I have slightly more talented, but less pieces of the puzzle put together. Regarding the Freeman ranking, I'm not convinced that the offense in Tampa is designed for a 30+ TD QB - though Freeman certainly has some tools there.FUBAR, it's close to "just long term upside" but not quite. Some consideration is given to situation and opportunity. I also only project out 3 years (except for a small bonus based on age below 35)Think of it this way: If I had my "starter" (let's say Philip Rivers, who is my number 1 "starter") and I was competitive right now, then this is the list I'd use to ascertain who I'd like on my bench behind him.FWIW, the formula I use requires I blindly plug about 9 different metrics for each player using pre-established criteria. When I plug in those numbers, it spits out my rankings. I feel a bit weird having Stafford up at #3, but my little system seems to work: 5 championship appearances in a row with two consecutive wins.Sometimes guys don't work out - it's all a matter of hitting on more than I miss, and always having enough high-upside guys to fill the gaps.

Love the rankings seeing as i just traded for Stafford in my dynasty league Any RB or WR rankings coming? Love to see what your formulas spit out that give you such great success.

Assuming you weren't being sarcastic (I kind of regret listing my "successes" - in fact, I'm taking that out), I appreciate the feedback. RB's will be coming in a week or two, with WR's probably to follow a month or so out.

 

[thriftyrocker]

Looks like some guppy owners will be selling Peyton at a discount this year.

 

[Jersey35]

Ok, I think it might help answer some folks' questions by listing my "base" rankings - which I would use when drafting a "starter", with injury-risk and historical consistency taken into account:

1 Rivers, Philip SDC

2 Rodgers, Aaron GBP

3 Brees, Drew NOS

4 Brady, Tom NEP

5 Manning, Peyton IND

6 Ryan, Matt ATL

7 Vick, Michael PHI

8 Manning, Eli NYG

9 Romo, Tony DAL

10 Stafford, Matthew DET

11 Schaub, Matt HOU

12 Bradford, Sam STL

13 Roethlisberger, Ben PIT

14 Freeman, Josh TBB

15 Cassel, Matt KCC

16 Flacco, Joe BAL

17 Fitzpatrick, Ryan BUF

18 Cutler, Jay CHI

19 Sanchez, Mark NYJ

20 Orton, Kyle DEN

21 McCoy, Colt CLE

22 Kolb, Kevin PHI

23 Tebow, Tim DEN

24 McNabb, Donovan WAS

25 Gradkowski, Bruce OAK

This is probably closer to what people expect when they think of dynasty rankings - but I find this sort of ranking useful only for the top of one's roster.

 

[guderian]

Carson Palmer?

 

[Jersey35]

Looks like some guppy owners will be selling Peyton at a discount this year.

I can promise you I'd be selling him if I had him and Rivers, Rodgers, Brees or Brady on my roster also. That's kind of the point of this list - if you have a starter, these would be the rankings I'd use for bench players. Case in point: I actually traded AWAY Manning (and Rivers) this season (because I had Rodgers and Vick).

 

[Jersey35]

Carson Palmer?

26th in my base list. I just think he's done, and his future is quite uncertain.29th on my "upside" list - the one in the OP.

 

[Concept Coop]

People are underestimating the advantages that running QBs have in FF. You may not like Tebow as an NFL QB, but he has as much upside as anyone.

I don't get the point of having the two sets of rankings. And how can you give major bonus for youth, then turn around and claim that you only look 3 years out? If you only look 3 years out, Vick should be number one, and Peyton Manning should be a lot higher.

 

[Jersey35]

People are underestimating the advantages that running QBs have in FF. You may not like Tebow as an NFL QB, but he has as much upside as anyone. I don't get the point of having the two sets of rankings. And how can you give major bonus for youth, then turn around and claim that you only look 3 years out? If you only look 3 years out, Vick should be number one, and Peyton Manning should be a lot higher.

Not sure if the comment was directed at me, but I like Tebow a lot. If McDaniels hadn't been fired, I'd probably have him even higher.Absolutely two sets of rankings. You evaluate the players you need to start today differently from the players you hope will start for you next year, or the next, or the next.I don't believe I said "major" bonus for youth. But younger players do get a bump and older players get a drop. I only project my opportunity and talent metrics 3 years out. Even so, 35 is 35, and 23 is 23. That's accounted for.I love Vick. Have him on my team. Will probably ride him until the wheels fall off. But he's probably pretty likely to miss 2-5 games due to his style of play. I'm just a tad more comfortable with Rodgers playing at a high enough level for more games.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Looks like some guppy owners will be selling Peyton at a discount this year.

I can promise you I'd be selling him if I had him and Rivers, Rodgers, Brees or Brady on my roster also.

Who wouldn't be trying to peddle Manning under that unlikely scenario?

 

[Concept Coop]

People are underestimating the advantages that running QBs have in FF. You may not like Tebow as an NFL QB, but he has as much upside as anyone. I don't get the point of having the two sets of rankings. And how can you give major bonus for youth, then turn around and claim that you only look 3 years out? If you only look 3 years out, Vick should be number one, and Peyton Manning should be a lot higher.

Not sure if the comment was directed at me, but I like Tebow a lot. If McDaniels hadn't been fired, I'd probably have him even higher.Absolutely two sets of rankings. You evaluate the players you need to start today differently from the players you hope will start for you next year, or the next, or the next.I don't believe I said "major" bonus for youth. But younger players do get a bump and older players get a drop. I only project my opportunity and talent metrics 3 years out. Even so, 35 is 35, and 23 is 23. That's accounted for.I love Vick. Have him on my team. Will probably ride him until the wheels fall off. But he's probably pretty likely to miss 2-5 games due to his style of play. I'm just a tad more comfortable with Rodgers playing at a high enough level for more games.

The Tebow comment was not directed at you.I guess my I am missing something. If you are giving a youth bonus, then you are looking further than 3 years, no?I see your point, and understand why you would have two sets. But I only use one - who is more valuable to me?

 

[Jersey35]

Looks like some guppy owners will be selling Peyton at a discount this year.

I can promise you I'd be selling him if I had him and Rivers, Rodgers, Brees or Brady on my roster also.

Who wouldn't be trying to peddle Manning under that unlikely scenario?

This isn't redraft. I walked into our rookie draft this season with Manning, Rodgers and Rivers on my squad, and picked up Vick in free agency for good measure.Here's the thing. EVERYONE has rankings for "starters". They start with some combination of Rivers, Rodgers, Brees, Brady, and Vick. Yay. These rankings have players like Tebow, Webb, Stafford, McCoy, Kolb etc. quite low because there is a great deal of risk associated with them - whether that be due to injury, starting status, and the like.

The problem is that when I'm filling out my bench, I don't want guys that are going to be gone in 1-3 years, or average guys that I can "plug" into my lineup for average stats. I want guys like this, guys with high upside and youth. Some won't pan out, I guarantee that some of the guys I have high on this list won't even be on it in a year or two. There's no way to avoid that. But hit more than you miss and you're going to keep your roster stacked with top 6 guys.

 

[Concept Coop]

The problem is that when I'm filling out my bench, I don't want guys that are going to be gone in 1-3 years, or average guys that I can "plug" into my lineup for average stats. I want guys like this, guys with high upside and youth. Some won't pan out, I guarantee that some of the guys I have high on this list won't even be on it in a year or two. There's no way to avoid that. But hit more than you miss and you're going to keep your roster stacked with top 6 guys.

Here is where I question your 2nd set of rankings:If I have Drew Brees, you are right, I would rather have Stafford than Manning, on my bench. But that doesn't change the fact that Manning has more value than Stafford. I would be looking to trade Manning for Stafford plus, but I wouldn't trade them straight accross. If I could get either, for an equal pick, I would still take Manning.

 

[Jersey35]

People are underestimating the advantages that running QBs have in FF. You may not like Tebow as an NFL QB, but he has as much upside as anyone.

I don't get the point of having the two sets of rankings. And how can you give major bonus for youth, then turn around and claim that you only look 3 years out? If you only look 3 years out, Vick should be number one, and Peyton Manning should be a lot higher.

Not sure if the comment was directed at me, but I like Tebow a lot. If McDaniels hadn't been fired, I'd probably have him even higher.Absolutely two sets of rankings. You evaluate the players you need to start today differently from the players you hope will start for you next year, or the next, or the next.

I don't believe I said "major" bonus for youth. But younger players do get a bump and older players get a drop. I only project my opportunity and talent metrics 3 years out. Even so, 35 is 35, and 23 is 23. That's accounted for.

I love Vick. Have him on my team. Will probably ride him until the wheels fall off. But he's probably pretty likely to miss 2-5 games due to his style of play. I'm just a tad more comfortable with Rodgers playing at a high enough level for more games.

The Tebow comment was not directed at you.I guess my I am missing something. If you are giving a youth bonus, then you are looking further than 3 years, no?

I see your point, and understand why you would have two sets. But I only use one - who is more valuable to me?

Evaluating things like talent and opportunity is difficult enough. Projecting them out more than 3 years is probably an exercise in futility. I can however, predict exactly what age each of these players will be 5, 7, 12 years from now, so I feel confident going ahead and scoring them for their age right now.

 

[Jersey35]

The problem is that when I'm filling out my bench, I don't want guys that are going to be gone in 1-3 years, or average guys that I can "plug" into my lineup for average stats. I want guys like this, guys with high upside and youth. Some won't pan out, I guarantee that some of the guys I have high on this list won't even be on it in a year or two. There's no way to avoid that. But hit more than you miss and you're going to keep your roster stacked with top 6 guys.

Here is where I question your 2nd set of rankings:If I have Drew Brees, you are right, I would rather have Stafford than Manning, on my bench. But that doesn't change the fact that Manning has more value than Stafford. I would be looking to trade Manning for Stafford plus, but I wouldn't trade them straight accross. If I could get either, for an equal pick, I would still take Manning.

I couldn't agree more. Obviously common sense should prevail when considering market value and trading. If I had Manning on my bench, I would do exactly what you've proposed here. Trade him for Stafford and an upgrade elsewhere.

 

[thriftyrocker]

So the purpose of your rankings is to remind you who's young.

 

[humpback]

Flacco, Eli and Cutler should be a tier above Tebow, Sanchez and Cassel (as opposed to being ranked below), and I honestly don't see how it could be viewed otherwise.

You really don't see how Cassel, a top 5 QB in 2010, can be viewed as higher than those 3?

Top 5 what?

 

[Jersey35]

So the purpose of your rankings is to remind you who's young.

Your post probably doesn't deserve a serious answer, but I'll give you the benefit of the doubt: these are the respective ages of the players in this list: 27 31 23 29 26 23 32 23 31 33 30 28 35 29 24 29 26 30 23 28 24 24 26 28 28It doesn't appear as though these numbers are in ascending order.

 

[thriftyrocker]

Flacco, Eli and Cutler should be a tier above Tebow, Sanchez and Cassel (as opposed to being ranked below), and I honestly don't see how it could be viewed otherwise.

You really don't see how Cassel, a top 5 QB in 2010, can be viewed as higher than those 3?

Top 5 what?

AFC West only leagues.

 

[Jersey35]

Flacco, Eli and Cutler should be a tier above Tebow, Sanchez and Cassel (as opposed to being ranked below), and I honestly don't see how it could be viewed otherwise.

You really don't see how Cassel, a top 5 QB in 2010, can be viewed as higher than those 3?

Top 5 what?

We had Cassel at #10QB this season, despite missing time. He has a very young and talented receiving corps, a highly regarded but inexperienced TE, and a young pass-catching RB. There's a bit of a question mark at the coaching level, but I see a likely trend upward for Cassel - with a healthy dose of risk. I might even have him too low - though I can't say who could get bumped.

 

[humpback]

Flacco, Eli and Cutler should be a tier above Tebow, Sanchez and Cassel (as opposed to being ranked below), and I honestly don't see how it could be viewed otherwise.

You really don't see how Cassel, a top 5 QB in 2010, can be viewed as higher than those 3?

Top 5 what?

We had Cassel at #10QB this season, despite missing time. He has a very young and talented receiving corps, a highly regarded but inexperienced TE, and a young pass-catching RB. There's a bit of a question mark at the coaching level, but I see a likely trend upward for Cassel - with a healthy dose of risk. I might even have him too low - though I can't say who could get bumped.

That's fine, I just don't get where the top 5 QB comes from. He wasn't.

 

[Jersey35]

Flacco, Eli and Cutler should be a tier above Tebow, Sanchez and Cassel (as opposed to being ranked below), and I honestly don't see how it could be viewed otherwise.

You really don't see how Cassel, a top 5 QB in 2010, can be viewed as higher than those 3?

Top 5 what?

We had Cassel at #10QB this season, despite missing time. He has a very young and talented receiving corps, a highly regarded but inexperienced TE, and a young pass-catching RB. There's a bit of a question mark at the coaching level, but I see a likely trend upward for Cassel - with a healthy dose of risk. I might even have him too low - though I can't say who could get bumped.

That's fine, I just don't get where the top 5 QB comes from. He wasn't.

Yea, not sure how FUBAR came up with that. He wasn't top 5 PPG either.

 

[thriftyrocker]

Cassel is way too high actually. No way he's above Flacco. He should be below Orton, Cutler, Eli, and even Kolb if you want my honest opinion. He is a noodle arm. He's a great NFL backup but a bad starter. KCC won despite him. Their great season is partially bad because it stops them from drafting or signing a better QB.

 

[Jersey35]

Cassel is way too high actually. No way he's above Flacco. He should be below Orton, Cutler, Eli, and even Kolb if you want my honest opinion. He is a noodle arm. He's a great NFL backup but a bad starter. KCC won despite him. Their great season is partially bad because it stops them from drafting or signing a better QB.

We'll just have to disagree on this one. I actually agree that Flacco, Kolb, and Eli are more talented, but his current situation puts him above them in these rankings for me. FWIW, I have Eli far above him in my base rankings, and in both sets Flacco is right next to him. I just don't like Cutler, but Orton this season was a perfect metaphor for Cassel: mediocre talent in a position to put up big numbers due to a perfect storm of opportunity and surrounding cast... and despite that, I still have him only at 16.

 

[Chuck the Roc]

im not sure i understand why any of you would put a running qb anywhere near the top 10 for a dynasty ranking?

Dunno bout you, when i think dynasty I think of long term, and when i think of running qbs that doesnt apply

Vick who is a "young" 30 will be 31 next season, and you cant get the guy to go feet first these dont add up to a dynasty qb investment to me.

Additionally if the GB staff cant get #12 to learn how to go feet first more often hes going to suffer in the future as well.

 

[I was in the pool]

im not sure i understand why any of you would put a running qb anywhere near the top 10 for a dynasty ranking? Dunno bout you, when i think dynasty I think of long term, and when i think of running qbs that doesnt applyVick who is a "young" 30 will be 31 next season, and you cant get the guy to go feet first these dont add up to a dynasty qb investment to me. Additionally if the GB staff cant get #12 to learn how to go feet first more often hes going to suffer in the future as well.

Agree.

 

[jdoggydogg]

I think you have Vick too high. Vick is far more valuable in a redraft league than a dynasty league. He's a broken rib waiting to happen. I'd never choose Vick over Brady, Brees, Rivers or Ryan.

 

[FUBAR]

Flacco, Eli and Cutler should be a tier above Tebow, Sanchez and Cassel (as opposed to being ranked below), and I honestly don't see how it could be viewed otherwise.

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You really don't see how Cassel, a top 5 QB in 2010, can be viewed as higher than those 3?

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Top 5 what?

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We had Cassel at #10QB this season, despite missing time. He has a very young and talented receiving corps, a highly regarded but inexperienced TE, and a young pass-catching RB. There's a bit of a question mark at the coaching level, but I see a likely trend upward for Cassel - with a healthy dose of risk. I might even have him too low - though I can't say who could get bumped.

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That's fine, I just don't get where the top 5 QB comes from. He wasn't.

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Yea, not sure how FUBAR came up with that. He wasn't top 5 PPG either.

My bad, he was top 5 after I traded him, from week 6 through 16.

 

[joey]

Love the rankings seeing as i just traded for Stafford in my dynasty league Any RB or WR rankings coming? Love to see what your formulas spit out that give you such great success.

Assuming you weren't being sarcastic (I kind of regret listing my "successes" - in fact, I'm taking that out), I appreciate the feedback. RB's will be coming in a week or two, with WR's probably to follow a month or so out.

I wasn't being sarcastic at all, so thanks for the response.I'm always interested in seeing how different people approach rankings, especially in dynasty leagues.cheers.

 

[Richard_the_Vampire]

I'm going to preface these rankings by explaining that I take a different approach to ranking my players. I believe that to be truly successful in a dynasty league, you need to focus on more than the positional requirements of your league: you need to focus on filling a number of positions within each position. For example, I look for different traits when going after the guy I expect to start on a weekly basis, the guy to fill in if/when he has a bye or injury, and the bench players I hope to use in the future or trade away soon.

I also believe that average football players do not belong on your fantasy team except as a backup to your starter - and bench players should ALL be high-upside, unless they are the real-life backup to one of your starters.

To this end, my ranking system actually uses a number of different formulas to rank players based on risk-aversion, upside, short and long-term expectations, etc. This list is merely one way to sort my rankings. The following list does not account for injury risk and selects highly for upside and youth. It also looks out only three years (though it offers a bonus per year under 35). The best use of these rankings would be for a team rebuilding, startup team not necessarily looking to win in year one, or a team that is not risk-averse.

1 Rodgers, Aaron GBP

2 Vick, Michael PHI

3 Stafford, Matthew DET

4 Rivers, Philip SDC

5 Ryan, Matt ATL

6 Bradford, Sam STL

7 Brees, Drew NOS

8 Freeman, Josh TBB

9 Romo, Tony DAL

10 Brady, Tom NEP

11 Schaub, Matt HOU

12 Manning, Peyton IND

13 Roethlisberger, Ben PIT

14 Tebow, Tim DEN

15 Sanchez, Mark NYJ

16 Cassel, Matt KCC

17 Flacco, Joe BAL

18 Manning, Eli NYG

19 Cutler, Jay CHI

20 Fitzpatrick, Ryan BUF

21 McCoy, Colt CLE

22 Webb, Joe MIN

23 Kolb, Kevin PHI

24 Orton, Kyle DEN

25 John Skelton ARZ

By no means does this list mean that I recommend drafting Stafford over Philip Rivers. What it means is that if you drafted Rivers, depending upon your team situation, you might wish to move him to obtain Stafford and and upgrade elsewhere.

Enjoy and flame away!

I question your valuation of "hype" players. You have Roethlisberger, Manning, and Brady far too low, and Stafford, Vick, Ryan and Bradford far too high. Roethlisberger is younger than Vick, you know. Much younger.

 

[nlgb1]

Flacco, Eli and Cutler should be a tier above Tebow, Sanchez and Cassel (as opposed to being ranked below), and I honestly don't see how it could be viewed otherwise.

You really don't see how Cassel, a top 5 QB in 2010, can be viewed as higher than those 3?

Top 5 what?

my god... after seeing that ludicrous comment i was scrolling down the page and didnt see anybody call him out on that til this. cassel was QB16 in my league, and would probably be lower on my rankings of actual quarterback play.

 

[Jersey35]

I question your valuation of "hype" players. You have Roethlisberger, Manning, and Brady far too low, and Stafford, Vick, Ryan and Bradford far too high. Roethlisberger is younger than Vick, you know. Much younger.

Are you telling me that once you've locked up Rodgers or Rivers at QB, your next look is at Manning/Brady because "they're" next on your sheet? Of course not. Now you're changing gears. This list is an attempt to quantify that switch. Look everywhere and they'll give you a list that has Manning/Brady/Brees/Rodgers/Vick/Rivers/Ryan/Roethlisberger/Manning in the top 8. Yup. Been there and seen it.Maybe I didn't make it clear enough in my original post. You need two lists of rankings when evaluating QB's (maybe even three). One for evaluating your "starter" and one for your bench players. You use different criteria for evaluating your starter than you do for evaluating your guys sitting behind him - or at least you should. This list is an opportunity for you consider a different perspective.

 

[Richard_the_Vampire]

I question your valuation of "hype" players. You have Roethlisberger, Manning, and Brady far too low, and Stafford, Vick, Ryan and Bradford far too high. Roethlisberger is younger than Vick, you know. Much younger.

Are you telling me that once you've locked up Rodgers or Rivers at QB, your next look is at Manning/Brady because "they're" next on your sheet? Of course not. Now you're changing gears. This list is an attempt to quantify that switch. Look everywhere and they'll give you a list that has Manning/Brady/Brees/Rodgers/Vick/Rivers/Ryan/Roethlisberger/Manning in the top 8. Yup. Been there and seen it.Maybe I didn't make it clear enough in my original post. You need two lists of rankings when evaluating QB's (maybe even three). One for evaluating your "starter" and one for your bench players. You use different criteria for evaluating your starter than you do for evaluating your guys sitting behind him - or at least you should. This list is an opportunity for you consider a different perspective.

I still don't understand. Why is Vick #2 and Manning outside the top 10? Roethlisberger is not valuable when you consider youth and upside? Really?

 

[Jersey35]

I question your valuation of "hype" players. You have Roethlisberger, Manning, and Brady far too low, and Stafford, Vick, Ryan and Bradford far too high. Roethlisberger is younger than Vick, you know. Much younger.

Are you telling me that once you've locked up Rodgers or Rivers at QB, your next look is at Manning/Brady because "they're" next on your sheet? Of course not. Now you're changing gears. This list is an attempt to quantify that switch. Look everywhere and they'll give you a list that has Manning/Brady/Brees/Rodgers/Vick/Rivers/Ryan/Roethlisberger/Manning in the top 8. Yup. Been there and seen it.Maybe I didn't make it clear enough in my original post. You need two lists of rankings when evaluating QB's (maybe even three). One for evaluating your "starter" and one for your bench players. You use different criteria for evaluating your starter than you do for evaluating your guys sitting behind him - or at least you should. This list is an opportunity for you consider a different perspective.

I still don't understand. Why is Vick #2 and Manning outside the top 10? Roethlisberger is not valuable when you consider youth and upside? Really?

Vick comes up #2 because he represents a huge swing between on field performance and injury potential. Vick averaged nearly 10PPG more than the #2 at his position. TEN!! That's a bigger gap than exists between #2 and #12!! In a list that doesn't worry about injury possibilities, Vick is very nearly the emperor of all things - the only reason he isn't #1 is because he's nearly 31.Manning is outside the top 10 because I don't want to waste a roster spot holding Manning as a back up. Am I really doing this poor a job of communicating what makes this list different from those you are used to?Roethlisperger was 20th in PPG in 2008, 5th in 2009, and 10th in 2010. I personally feel that 2009 may have been his ceiling. He's 29 and makes a great starter, but I don't know why I'd want him riding the pine on my bench behind a Brady, Manning or Rodgers when I can trade him for something that can actually help my team.

 

[FUBAR]

Flacco, Eli and Cutler should be a tier above Tebow, Sanchez and Cassel (as opposed to being ranked below), and I honestly don't see how it could be viewed otherwise.

You really don't see how Cassel, a top 5 QB in 2010, can be viewed as higher than those 3?

Top 5 what?

my god... after seeing that ludicrous comment i was scrolling down the page and didnt see anybody call him out on that til this. cassel was QB16 in my league, and would probably be lower on my rankings of actual quarterback play.

You could have, you know, read my response on this page. Cassel did a lot better than people are giving him credit for.