My leaguemates are getting better, but I'm not (1 Viewer)

[Rounders]

Here's the story: 12 year, 10 team, re-draft league. Pretty standard league. Over the first 9 years my team has been one of the best, going to the playoffs, winning a couple of championships, and generally wining games. Over the last 3 years however, my teams have not been so good. I have failed to win more than 5 games in a season for the last 3 years and I'm looking like I will miss the playoffs for the 3rd straight year. I feel like my teams are good, but obvisiouly not good enough.

I don't believe that I have changed my strategy to result in this drastic change, but I believe that the information that is out there for my league mates is making them better. They are taking it and running with it. Gone are the days of picking the waiver wire apart and running away with the diamonds in the rough.

Bottom line my league has gotten better, and I have failed to stay ahead of the curve. Has anyone else experienced something similar? If so, what did you do to counteract it? Is this just something that was bound to happen?

I'm not complaining about my results as much as I would like it to stop. So please no I'm just asking some fellow FBGs if they have any experience with a similar problem and if so, what do I need to do to turn it around.

 

[Sabertooth]

Same thing here. You know what I really think it is? Too much emphasis on buying low and selling high in the waiver and trade markets. Take a look at the team you started with, and the team you have now and tell me which is better.

 

[Rounders]

Same thing here. You know what I really think it is? Too much emphasis on buying low and selling high in the waiver and trade markets. Take a look at the team you started with, and the team you have now and tell me which is better.

Interesting point, but I don't think that it holds true for my team this year. I have made some good moves (I think), take a lookrafted:

QB-Brady

RB-Barber, C.Taylor, R.Bush

WR-Holt, Coles

TE-LJ

K-Stover

D-Was

Started yesterday:

QB-Brady

RB-Barber, C.Taylor, D.Foster

WR-Holt, S.Smith

TE-LJ

K-Brown

D-NE

I don't want to turn this into a post about my team (too late), but I'm not sure that your point Sabertooth is the reason for my team's downfall this year (or in the past)

 

[Sabertooth]

Just trying to contribute

 

[sartre]

A few years ago, I would be one of the few that would heavily rely on the web for my primary drafting info. Most guys in my leagues would come to the draft with their FF magazine, which was probably published in the Spring. You have probably experienced this advantage yourself, I would guess.

Now, pretty much everyone uses up to date info found on the web. It's almost like everyone has the same information, which makes drafting more about luck than skill. I feel I no longer have an advantage (FBG and/or other good sources of current information) over my leaguemates, as this info is now accessed by all.

ETA: and as far as regaining this advantage, well, the only way I see that being possible would be to do all your own research, and to be better at your research than FBGs and their competitors are at theirs. I certainly don't have the time to attempt that, let alone the acumen to succeed at it.

 

[WampusCat43]

The internet has levelled the playing field, but worse in our league (an established, TD-only league) is draft position means everything. You get one of LJ/LT/SA (well, not this year), and you're going to the playoffs. With only 4 out of 12 teams going, that leaves zero margin for error.

So we're going to an auction league next year. This should be interesting.

 

[Da Guru]

I have been in 14 team league for 13 years.

I have made the playoffs every year except one when injuries destroyed my team. The first 8-9 years I played in 5 SuperBowls winning two.

We had about 4 yteams that hustled and did the homework to succeed. Now there really are no sleepers. There is so much info easily accessable that even the laziest owner has a decent chance to succeed.

 

[videoguy505]

I see it too, especially when using a tool like Lineup Dominator. After I draft, I'm usually expected to win 10-11 games according to the projections. By week 9, most of my upcoming games are losses. Either they're catching up after bad drafts, while I was good to begin with; or my players bust; or the players all start to regress toward the mean.

 

[Warpig]

So far this year I'm pretty much par for the course. I'm always in the mix when it comes to the playoffs but can't seem to get my guys to score when I need them the most.

I think a big factor to the guppies catching up with the sharks in my league is the damn waiver wire. If you lose your first 2 games and end up making solid picks from the waiver wire, that could save your season.

Perfect example is Marques Colston...that guy has been a beast and now the scrub that was 0-2 is suddenly 6-2 since Colston has been getting 100+ yards every week and a bunch of TD's. You also have Rex Grossman and Tony Romo. All of these guys could very well be helping put your team over the top.

Another thing is all the parity this year. There is pretty much one bottom feeder team in my league, and a glut of teams at 5-5, 6-4, or 7-3. So there isn't much seperating the teams. What burns me is because I am 1 game better than a guy, he gets a better waiver spot which can make all the difference in the world. For example...I am a disgruntled McGahee owner. When McGahee went down I figured it would be in my best interest to grab A-Train. But guess what...the other guy in my division that is 6-4 got a better pick than I did and he scooped him up. Now I'm left with nothing.

I have no idea how my team is 7-3 since my starting RB's have scored a combined 5 td's (McGahee, D. Foster and C. Taylor). I think Vick, Heap, and the Bears D have been carrying me.

But I do think it has more to do with luck and early waiver pick-ups. Maybe waiver transactions should be snaked throughout the year when teams are so closely grouped together.

 

[dagwood]

It's possible that you were not as good as you thought you were .... and therefore it was not hard for your leaguemates to catch you....now you are all the same level and its down to who's team stays healthy and who the fantasy luck god shines on that particular week.....good luck though....if this is the case, your time will come.....as the luck god plays no favorites over the long haul.....

 

[Archie Bunker]

There are a few things that are leveling the playing field (for better or worse)

1. The amount of data on the internet. There were at least 2-3 guys in my league that just downloaded stuff the night before the draft and ended up with good drafts (except for the guy that missed D. Davis' injury and picked him #1 overall in a 2-player keeper league). I still think I have an advantace here in that some guys still use magazines and others use poor internet sources (such as CBS).

2. Other owners eventually begin to pick up on your strategies. Several years ago, no one in my league had any clue about VBD or the relative value of RBs. I had 5 RBs before some teams had 2. I had the rest of the league by the ##### the rest of the season and could make some very nice trades.

3. There is more of a spotlight on sleepers. Compared to 7-10 years ago, there are not many great waiver wire pickups.

4. For me, personally, I don't spend nearly as much time on FF as I used to because of work and family commitments. Relative to other league owners, I used to spend much more time doing research.

 

[Banger]

The internet has definitely levelled the field in terms of the draft and weekly FA pickups. Good FF'ers can still pick up value in trades and roster management (things that the internet/sportsline can't spell out for you in black and white).

 

[meeka]

It's possible that you were not as good as you thought you were .... and therefore it was not hard for your leaguemates to catch you....now you are all the same level and its down to who's team stays healthy and who the fantasy luck god shines on that particular week.....good luck though....if this is the case, your time will come.....as the luck god plays no favorites over the long haul.....

That may be possible, but I think he is looking for an answer to that problem. How does he get better. I think it comes down to being prepared. Yes, everyone in you league now has info at their fingertips. You need to make sure you have all the info you need to make solid picks during the draft. Each year there will be a great deal of booms and busts, but if you are prepared you can find yourself on the right side of that more often than not. Your years of dominating the league are probably over, but being competiteve more than not should be a realistic goal. If you continue to find yourself in the bottom of the league you need to discover where you are making your big mistakes. Look back at your losing years and see if there is any place where you continue to make mistakes.

 

[hotdogcollars]

look at the league leaders too. I mean, who figured a week 1 or 2 waiver wire pickup would be the best WR this year? I'm sure there's something like that every year, but not to this extent. Between unknowns being studs, RBBC, and the parity in the league, its nearly impossible to win without a lot of luck.

 

[sinatravolta]

I agree that the availability of good information on the web has leveled the playing field somewhat. However, I would guess in most leagues a lot of people aren't on to Footballguys. So - while their cheatsheet at each position may be better than it used to be (because they're not going by an outdated magazine cheatsheet), they still don't have a perfect grasp of the relative value of the positions. People are wiser to taking RBs earlier than they used to be, but they still probably aren't thinking much about tiers, may get caught in runs, etc.

If they are using FBGs, or are not bad at sensing value, there are still other ways to get ahead. One thing that I think is underutilized by many is looking at your league's previous drafts and planning your drafting accordingly. So - if for the last 2 years you've seen that most people start taking their 2nd QB in the 10th and 11th rounds, and you're planning to wait on QB, make sure you go in the 8th and 9th. Or if everyone takes a lot of RBs in the first 3 rounds, but then it really slows down until about the 7th, then maybe you can wait one more round than you would have thought on that high risk/high reward RB and take him in the 6th instead of the 5th.

I think as your league gets better, there's no way you can stay as far ahead as you were before, and luck will be more important than it used to be. But there are still ways to have advantages and in general come out ahead more often than not.

 

[GregR_2]

The level of information available is a big part of it. But I also think one of the major factors at play is owners learning how to accurately determine value.

Sometimes it is just people doing it long enough the patterns start to become obvious and they emulate what the successful teams do. In some cases it may be owners discovering sites like FBG that can teach people to think for themselves. In others it is people getting access to apps like Draft Dominator, which even if they don't use it as they should, might do a better job at value than they would on their own.

But I think correctly valuing players is an equal part along with better information about the players themselves.

 

[meeka]

The internet has definitely levelled the field in terms of the draft and weekly FA pickups. Good FF'ers can still pick up value in trades and roster management (things that the internet/sportsline can't spell out for you in black and white).

Trading is a huge advantage for those that are good at it. All websites touch on it, but can not really teach owners how to do it. I have a habit of checking everyone elses roster every week to see if injuries or bye weeks have then low at one of my strengths. That is where you can add to you team. Last week an owner needed a rb. I was able to trade Fred Taylor (kept him longer than I am confortable with) and Reggie Williams for M. Harrison and M. Moore (I own Chester) I sat with K. Jones, Chester, T. Bell, and F. Taylor all season looking for a spot to take advantage of an owner that needed a RB. Finally in week 8 I found one. Constantly look for trades. You do have to have a deep team to take advantage of this.

 

[apalmer]

You may need to adjust your draft strategy. Example: I am in a league where we all started out as guppies years ago. I dominated for several years, mostly because I found FBG and adopted the VBD strategy. The other teams kept their same strategies, drafting QB's early, etc. while I loaded up on stud RB's and WR's. Over the years, they started to understand that my winning was not an accident. However, they mistook VBD for "Stud RB" theory. So, this year, everyone in sight was grabbing RB's in the first two rounds--leaving me to grab Peyton late in the 2nd round (where his value was huge). Suddenly, everyone's reaction was "what are you doing taking a QB this early? You never do that!" I'm now 8-1 this year with the "contrarian" picks, and I'm sure several owners are trying to figure out what hit them.

If your entire league has found VBD, it will be a lot tougher.

 

[videoguy505]

You make a good point about guys like Colston. When he broke out in week 1, I couldn't know that he'd be consistent instead of a flash in the pan. While I had good WRs that I thought would do well (like Moss) over the course of the season, I couldn't afford to drop anyone to take a risk. Whereas my leaguemates and their awful drafts left plenty of fat to trim after week 1, and they picked up plenty of good guys from waivers.

 

[Warpig]

You make a good point about guys like Colston. When he broke out in week 1, I couldn't know that he'd be consistent instead of a flash in the pan. While I had good WRs that I thought would do well (like Moss) over the course of the season, I couldn't afford to drop anyone to take a risk. Whereas my leaguemates and their awful drafts left plenty of fat to trim after week 1, and they picked up plenty of good guys from waivers.

Exactly. When you don't have alot of fat, it's hard to drop something proven for an unknown.

 

[One]

I also notice a redraft trend of larger rosters. The hot thing to do in FF right now seems to be drafting handcuffs and stockpiling potential. Even when I watch the WW the "hot pickups" are usually already on someone's bench.

The internet is the key. I noticed Sportsline is now connected to Rotoworld so you get 2 opinions right off the bat with that site. Plus FF has gone mainstream, everywhere you look there is another sporting periodical with a fantasy section or a commentator talking up a guy on his fantasy team. It gets kinda old hearing Kornheiser talk up his picks.

If my dad can join his work league and win, you know fantasy info is easily accessible.

 

[DOVCommish]

The Internet and availability of info is the #1 reason for these types of changes in leagues. Our 12-team redraft (14th year) has seen the cream rise to the top with regard to actual wins, but title - a lot of dumb luck. Our last three champs career records (4 years, 5 years, 13 years experience) have all been sub- .500.

Info/Luck usually beat Dumb Luck. Now that everyone has a lot of the same info to start with, most weeks youc an flip a coin.

 

[meeka]

I think we all agree on the reason for other owners gaining ground. Now to the question about how to get back to a position of advantage. Any ideas?

 

[guderian]

With information parity, the problem must be with your strategy--and not with your player selection. I think you probably need to take more risks and do a better job with the bottom end of your roster. There are a handful of players this year that were sleepers that would have increased your chances of making the playoffs. Perhaps you aren't rsotering enough players with upside potential. Sure some will bomb out, but in other years you'll sail into the playoffs.

 

[my man otis]

With information parity, the problem must be with your strategy--and not with your player selection. I think you probably need to take more risks and do a better job with the bottom end of your roster. There are a handful of players this year that were sleepers that would have increased your chances of making the playoffs. Perhaps you aren't rsotering enough players with upside potential. Sure some will bomb out, but in other years you'll sail into the playoffs.

Perfect answer.Take risks. Someone in my league is in the same situation as you. 5 years running he had great teams and contended each year. Past 3 years he's been mediocre.He's not taking risks. Don't draft the starting RB from the Texans, instead take a backup with big upside. Don't take the WR1 from a bad passing team, instead take a WR2 or WR3 from a good passing team.Big risks = big rewards. Small risks = small rewards. Structure your roster with a good mix of "safe" guys and a good mix of big risk guys and you should be rewarded if one or two of the risks pans out in a big way.

 

[Ned]

One thing that I think is underutilized by many is looking at your league's previous drafts and planning your drafting accordingly. So - if for the last 2 years you've seen that most people start taking their 2nd QB in the 10th and 11th rounds, and you're planning to wait on QB, make sure you go in the 8th and 9th. Or if everyone takes a lot of RBs in the first 3 rounds, but then it really slows down until about the 7th, then maybe you can wait one more round than you would have thought on that high risk/high reward RB and take him in the 6th instead of the 5th.

knowing your league's tendancies goes a lonnnnnng way...

 

[Andrew74]

I must be one of the other guys, because my teams are getting better each year. This is the second year in my main league I have had a team that is way better than anyone elses. Last year the schedule screwed me; this year I am stompin' the proverbial mud-hole in everyone else. I contribute this to (a) becoming addicted to this hobby and (b) finding this website.

 

[FFdork]

The biggest factor, of course, is luck/chance/randomness. You could play in a FF league with an aboriginal tribe who have no TV or internet and, as long as they understand the basic league rules and have a fantasy magazine, you still won't win every year. Add some internet access and a waiver wire, and no matter how prepared you are, you won't win as much as you might think you should.I agree with a number of things that have been said here already.

I think a big factor to the guppies catching up with the sharks in my league is the damn waiver wire. If you lose your first 2 games and end up making solid picks from the waiver wire, that could save your season.

I agree. In the league where I became commish, I have slowly moved the rules (larger rosters, bidding system for WW, start 3 WR + mandatory TE) in a direction that favors people that do their homework and draft well. Nothing will completely prevent a Colston situation, but our previously small rosters had made tanking the first few games to get the good WW players a legitimate (if unintentional) strategy. Now I've finally got things where the better owners are winning more consistently.I also agree that taking risks is important. I see way too many people that are more worried about the crap they'll take for sticking their neck out than making the moves that will win the league. Every year I must do 3-4 things that I take a ton of crap for from my leaguemates. Some crash and burn, but many do not. You only have to have about a 50% success rate to gain a huge advantage over the typical 'wait and see' kind of guy. Some guys truly come out of nowhere, but staying informed and recognizing the opportunity before it happens (when there are FFA add/drops in most of my leagues) is huge, especially if your league puts the winning teams at the back of the waiver line.Personally, I think trading is where I could improve the most. In general, teams overvalue their own players and undervalue yours. Plus, I find most owners are only interested in trades that they feel are heavily in their favor. Throw in that a lot of people still think Manning = LT in value (in a typical scoring system), and I find I have trouble getting much done. The best strategy I've found is trying to stockpile enough talent at a postion (RB is best) so that you can afford to make a trade that favors the other owner but improves your starting lineup (e.g. owning 4 top 15 RBs and moving 1 of them for a good WR even though it's not technically equal value).

 

[Ears]

Perfect answer.Take risks. Someone in my league is in the same situation as you. 5 years running he had great teams and contended each year. Past 3 years he's been mediocre.He's not taking risks. Don't draft the starting RB from the Texans, instead take a backup with big upside. Don't take the WR1 from a bad passing team, instead take a WR2 or WR3 from a good passing team.Big risks = big rewards. Small risks = small rewards. Structure your roster with a good mix of "safe" guys and a good mix of big risk guys and you should be rewarded if one or two of the risks pans out in a big way.

How would you categorize a guy like Frank Gore? I took him as my RB3 at 6.12 - an RB1 on a crappy team. However, he was by all accounts a talented runner and after Barlow's trade not in an RBBC. Would you have drafted, say, Laurence Maroney ahead of Gore? Which of these would you consider the 'high risk / high reward' pick?

 

[Rounders]

With information parity, the problem must be with your strategy--and not with your player selection. I think you probably need to take more risks and do a better job with the bottom end of your roster. There are a handful of players this year that were sleepers that would have increased your chances of making the playoffs. Perhaps you aren't rsotering enough players with upside potential. Sure some will bomb out, but in other years you'll sail into the playoffs.

Perfect answer.Take risks. Someone in my league is in the same situation as you. 5 years running he had great teams and contended each year. Past 3 years he's been mediocre.He's not taking risks. Don't draft the starting RB from the Texans, instead take a backup with big upside. Don't take the WR1 from a bad passing team, instead take a WR2 or WR3 from a good passing team.Big risks = big rewards. Small risks = small rewards. Structure your roster with a good mix of "safe" guys and a good mix of big risk guys and you should be rewarded if one or two of the risks pans out in a big way.

I get your point here, but who's to say that the starting RB for Houston was not going to be the next big sleeper??? Or that J.Walker (#1 WR on a bad passing team) is going to produce more than A.Boldin??Just some quick thoughts, it just seems like to me that over the last few years, there have been some great players with outstanding years (LJ, LT, SA, etc) and if you are on the outside looking in it's real difficult to win some games.

 

[pats3in4]

Things that have helped me get an edge in the past two years:

1. Understand the coach's philosophy of a player you are looking at. This directly helped me this year when I drafted Willie Parker earlier than he probably would have normally went (I doubt there is an ADP for leagues using my rules, so I'm guessing). Cowher loves to run the ball and with no Bettis, I figured Parker would get a chance to earn consistent GL carries. Everyone else in my league wondered who would be the GL hawk. It never dawned on them that it could be Parker.

2. Watch the games on DirecTV. With all of your leaguemates having internet access, you need an additional source of information that keeps you ahead. Some guys who don't rack up stats early in the season look better on TV than on their stat sheets on the internet. Joe Horn's recent breakout (before getting injured) wasn't all that surprising if you watched the Saints. He was getting open, but so was Colston and Brees was throwing the other way. Once Colston started getting more attention, Horn was bound to shine.

3. Trade in the preseason. This is where value is most uncertain so you can make trades then that would never be made during the season. I stole Westbrook days before the season began because the original owner was scared of his injury history. It was a legitimate concern, but come on...we play in a PPR league. You just don't quit on a guy like Westbrook under that circumstance.

 

[jkruppe]

Things that have helped me get an edge in the past two years:1. Understand the coach's philosophy of a player you are looking at. This directly helped me this year when I drafted Willie Parker earlier than he probably would have normally went (I doubt there is an ADP for leagues using my rules, so I'm guessing). Cowher loves to run the ball and with no Bettis, I figured Parker would get a chance to earn consistent GL carries. Everyone else in my league wondered who would be the GL hawk. It never dawned on them that it could be Parker.2. Watch the games on DirecTV. With all of your leaguemates having internet access, you need an additional source of information that keeps you ahead. Some guys who don't rack up stats early in the season look better on TV than on their stat sheets on the internet. Joe Horn's recent breakout (before getting injured) wasn't all that surprising if you watched the Saints. He was getting open, but so was Colston and Brees was throwing the other way. Once Colston started getting more attention, Horn was bound to shine.3. Trade in the preseason. This is where value is most uncertain so you can make trades then that would never be made during the season. I stole Westbrook days before the season began because the original owner was scared of his injury history. It was a legitimate concern, but come on...we play in a PPR league. You just don't quit on a guy like Westbrook under that circumstance.

Wow...I'm sorry, but I almost couldn't disagree more with this if I tried. 1. Parker was named the GL back in the preseason -- before almost all my drafts -- so anybody could have read that info on the internet, which is the point of many of the posts in this thread. 2. I will agree that DirecTV rules, however.3. I generally think of pre-season trading as silly. You just as easily could have traded for LaMont Jordan or Cadillac Williams in the preseason before knowing they'd be busts. There are very few absolutes in the preseason. Maybe you did make a good deal for Westbrook, but it was a gamble that so far, at least, has paid off.I see the FF "parity" as a good thing. I don't like to play in buddy leagues with ridiculous trade offers and mouthy, non-informed owners or whiners complaining about the rules or teams not setting their lineups. I'd much rather play in a league of 12 informed, knowledgeable coaches where the competition is high every week. It's good to dominate a league once in a while, I guess -- and there are plenty of Yahoo leagues around where you can do that. But, for the most part, I look at the "changes" as a positive.

 

[guderian]

I think an important point is that you don't even have to hit on 50% to have it pay off. If you have an OK WR2 and your sleeper WR fails, then you can still start your WR2. However, if your sleeper WR2 ends up being Colston--then the gamble paid off for you. Basically, you didn't lose anything by taking the risk in the above example, but you had the potential to gain a lot.

 

[videoguy505]

You make a good point about guys like Colston. When he broke out in week 1, I couldn't know that he'd be consistent instead of a flash in the pan. While I had good WRs that I thought would do well (like Moss) over the course of the season, I couldn't afford to drop anyone to take a risk. Whereas my leaguemates and their awful drafts left plenty of fat to trim after week 1, and they picked up plenty of good guys from waivers.

Exactly. When you don't have alot of fat, it's hard to drop something proven for an unknown.

Thanks. By the time I realized I should drop Randy Moss for Marques Colston, he was already snapped up weeks before by a team that only had to drop Brandon Lloyd for him. Countless other examples... the guy in my league who had only Trent Green as a QB was forced to pick up the best available remaining QB in free agency, some schmuck no one wanted called Rex Grossman, while I had invested in the QB-By-Committee approach and didn't see a need to pick up a fourth QB. The next week Grossman went off and started a nice run for his owner, and the QBBC I had was in shambles a couple of games later. I could have gotten Kevin Jones early in a trade, but didn't see a need for what would be a 4th RB who was so hit-and-miss in the past, he'd have been a lot better than my current RB2. Waited too long for Ben Watson when Des Clark and Owen Daniels were still free agents... etc.I'm still in first but the race is very tight--I just couldn't trim any fat early on and it got costly, since my opponents could gamble.

I don't think gambling more is necessarily the answer, though--the thing is that everyone else in my league had to take these risks. Some of them worked out--Colston, Grossman, Clark, for example--while a great many didn't. So while there's a three- or four-team race for 1st place, there's also a glut of 2-8 and 3-7 teams at the bottom who made the same gambles that didn't work out.

I guess to simplify, while taking a big risk will pay off for some team, there's no way to be sure it'll happen for your team.

 

[my man otis]

Perfect answer.Take risks. Someone in my league is in the same situation as you. 5 years running he had great teams and contended each year. Past 3 years he's been mediocre.He's not taking risks. Don't draft the starting RB from the Texans, instead take a backup with big upside. Don't take the WR1 from a bad passing team, instead take a WR2 or WR3 from a good passing team.Big risks = big rewards. Small risks = small rewards. Structure your roster with a good mix of "safe" guys and a good mix of big risk guys and you should be rewarded if one or two of the risks pans out in a big way.

How would you categorize a guy like Frank Gore? I took him as my RB3 at 6.12 - an RB1 on a crappy team. However, he was by all accounts a talented runner and after Barlow's trade not in an RBBC. Would you have drafted, say, Laurence Maroney ahead of Gore? Which of these would you consider the 'high risk / high reward' pick?

No, at the end of the 6th round is an amazing place to draft a starting RB on an NFL team, though without hindsight I may have taken Maroney there. This is definitely an exception. For comparison's sake Gore went at the end of the 3rd in my main league.You can't always choose correctly, so here's the tact I take:(1) Get it right 65% of the time with modest payoff, or (2) Get it right 30% of the time but the correct picks pay off bigOption 2 is the better way to go IMO. The next question is obviously how to identify the risks to take...but that may be for another thread, unless someone else wants to take an initial stab at it.

 

[my man otis]

With information parity, the problem must be with your strategy--and not with your player selection. I think you probably need to take more risks and do a better job with the bottom end of your roster. There are a handful of players this year that were sleepers that would have increased your chances of making the playoffs. Perhaps you aren't rsotering enough players with upside potential. Sure some will bomb out, but in other years you'll sail into the playoffs.

Perfect answer.Take risks. Someone in my league is in the same situation as you. 5 years running he had great teams and contended each year. Past 3 years he's been mediocre.He's not taking risks. Don't draft the starting RB from the Texans, instead take a backup with big upside. Don't take the WR1 from a bad passing team, instead take a WR2 or WR3 from a good passing team.Big risks = big rewards. Small risks = small rewards. Structure your roster with a good mix of "safe" guys and a good mix of big risk guys and you should be rewarded if one or two of the risks pans out in a big way.

I get your point here, but who's to say that the starting RB for Houston was not going to be the next big sleeper??? Or that J.Walker (#1 WR on a bad passing team) is going to produce more than A.Boldin??Just some quick thoughts, it just seems like to me that over the last few years, there have been some great players with outstanding years (LJ, LT, SA, etc) and if you are on the outside looking in it's real difficult to win some games.

First, Denver is never a team I would ever put in the "bad" camp in any phase of the game. Walker was one of those gambles to take, IMO. Good coach, good running game, good QB (in preseason), good WR along side of him.Houston has a bad defense, so any RB that you don't 100% absolutely know is a focal point in the passing game (a la DD) you don't touch. Houston gets down big early and you're left w/ a RB getting 8 carries in the whole game.I never saw that with any of those guys there this year. Now I'm not saying to NOT draft a Houston RB, but do it late enough so that if it doesn't work out it's no big deal. If someone else takes them before you feel comfortable doing so, no problem, move on.Finally, don't be one of those people that cry about LJ, LT, SA owners. The LT owner in my league is 2-8. The SA owner is treading water at 5-5. The LJ owner is 7-3. It's only a 1st round pick, there are plenty of other places to find value. I drafted Jordan in the 1st round and I'm sitting at 8-2. You put your chips on the table and hope they work out.All in all I personally would rather be 10-3 or 3-10 each year than 7-6 or 6-7.

 

[Ears]

You can't always choose correctly, so here's the tact I take:(1) Get it right 65% of the time with modest payoff, or (2) Get it right 30% of the time but the correct picks pay off bigOption 2 is the better way to go IMO. The next question is obviously how to identify the risks to take...but that may be for another thread, unless someone else wants to take an initial stab at it.

Couldn't agree more - I was playing devil's advocate as much as anything. A talented RB1 on a bad team has minimal downside and as much upside as an unproven rookie. You're rught - the test is identifying who is more likely to fulfill that potential. That's where the OP can re-establish an advantage.As a first cut you would not look at projections as a point estimate (e.g., 75/1000/5). Your projections would be a probability distribution, where you'd have a mean and median, as well as likelihoods for better or worse performance. In the mid-rounds I'd prefer a player with a larger standard deviation (higher up/downside)than one a very narrow distribution (consistant performer) - as you would, too.

 

[Rounders]

Any thoughts from the night crew?

 

[ILUVBEER99]

I honestly don't think anyone can gain a significant advantage in Re-Draft leagues anymore with the internet.

These sites have staffs dedicated to researching everything for you and no matter how much time you spend on it yourself your not going to gain much of an advantage over even a monkey who uses the sites cheatsheets and weekly WW update stuff.

Dynasty leagues are still fairly untapped by the mainstream and putting values on players long term value takes far more skill than just looking at a one year window.

So my recommendation would be to at least add a keeper aspect to your league.

 

[roadkill1292]

The internet has levelled the playing field, but worse in our league (an established, TD-only league) is draft position means everything. You get one of LJ/LT/SA (well, not this year), and you're going to the playoffs. With only 4 out of 12 teams going, that leaves zero margin for error.

So we're going to an auction league next year. This should be interesting.

This is always the correct answer.

 

[Winning IS Everything]

I can relate to this thread. In my main league two or three of us ruled the league every year. Now the last couple of years we have guys that do no studying plunk down $25 on draft day print off a sheet and go on to win the league. The internet and sites like this sure have changed things....... But it is all good!!!!!!

 

[Winning IS Everything]

The internet has levelled the playing field, but worse in our league (an established, TD-only league) is draft position means everything. You get one of LJ/LT/SA (well, not this year), and you're going to the playoffs. With only 4 out of 12 teams going, that leaves zero margin for error.

So we're going to an auction league next year. This should be interesting.

This is always the correct answer.

This I agree with as well. I am in an auction league and the best owners are at the top there.