What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!

My New Self Imposed Drafting Rule for 2007 (1 Viewer)

whodeywhodey

Footballguy
STEP 1: If the top DEF in your league scores 200 or more points proceed to step 2, if not then wait on defenses as normal

STEP 2: If CHI and/or BALT were better 100 points than the 12th best team proceed to step 3, if not then wait on defenses as normal

STEP 3: Draft CHI then BALT in that order beginning in the 6th round (or NE if you think they are clearly better than BALT this year)

Basically what I have imposed on myself is that I have to rethink how I have been viewing DEF. A difference of 100 pts is too much to pass up. And I think that CHI is just about the closest thing to being #1 at their position outside of Peyton Manning at QB (ok, maybe LT at RB as well).

I have grabbed CHI early in 2 draft already in these high scoring DEF leagues. I challenge you to re-think how you draft defenses on these leagues as well.

 
Stay away from the Ravens this year. Toughest schedule for fantasy D/STs in the league. I'd draft the Chargers over the Ravens for that reason, plus the gimme against the Raiders in week 16.

 
Stay away from the Ravens this year. Toughest schedule for fantasy D/STs in the league. I'd draft the Chargers over the Ravens for that reason, plus the gimme against the Raiders in week 16.
I agree. I actually have them ranked CHI >> SD > BAL = NEI think that CHI's schedule makes them even more valuable this year. Have you seen their fantasy playoff schedule???14 @Skins15 @Vikings 16 Packers
 
Stay away from the Ravens this year. Toughest schedule for fantasy D/STs in the league. I'd draft the Chargers over the Ravens for that reason, plus the gimme against the Raiders in week 16.
I agree. I actually have them ranked CHI >> SD > BAL = NEI think that CHI's schedule makes them even more valuable this year. Have you seen their fantasy playoff schedule???14 @Skins15 @Vikings 16 Packers
They play the Vikes for playoff week? Sign me up for round 6, I hope they're there.
 
Stay away from the Ravens this year. Toughest schedule for fantasy D/STs in the league. I'd draft the Chargers over the Ravens for that reason, plus the gimme against the Raiders in week 16.
I agree. I actually have them ranked CHI >> SD > BAL = NEI think that CHI's schedule makes them even more valuable this year. Have you seen their fantasy playoff schedule???14 @Skins15 @Vikings 16 Packers
They play the Vikes for playoff week? Sign me up for round 6, I hope they're there.
But did you follow the algorithm? :unsure:
 
Stay away from the Ravens this year. Toughest schedule for fantasy D/STs in the league. I'd draft the Chargers over the Ravens for that reason, plus the gimme against the Raiders in week 16.
SD may regress as well without Wade Phillips but with the combo of Norv Turner and that fraud Ted Cottrell.
 
Stay away from the Ravens this year. Toughest schedule for fantasy D/STs in the league. I'd draft the Chargers over the Ravens for that reason, plus the gimme against the Raiders in week 16.
SD may regress as well without Wade Phillips but with the combo of Norv Turner and that fraud Ted Cottrell.
True, but Merriman (probably? hopefully?) won't be missing time this year, so that's a plus over last season. Also, they seem to like their secondary more this year, with Cromartie's improvement, the drafting of Weddle, and the kid from Georgia (?) they got in the supplemental draft. Also, for the ST part of the D/ST, Darren Sproles is back this year, and I know the Chargers liked him as a kick returner a few years ago. If he's back and healthy, I think their return game will be better than it was last season.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
Stay away from the Ravens this year. Toughest schedule for fantasy D/STs in the league. I'd draft the Chargers over the Ravens for that reason, plus the gimme against the Raiders in week 16.
i dont think this changes any of the logic, but for clarity ill point out that SD plays at Oak in Week 17, not week 16.oh, and welcome to the board whodey. your first couple of contributions are very solid. refreshing takes in a watered down shark pool.
 
Stay away from the Ravens this year. Toughest schedule for fantasy D/STs in the league. I'd draft the Chargers over the Ravens for that reason, plus the gimme against the Raiders in week 16.
i dont think this changes any of the logic, but for clarity ill point out that SD plays at Oak in Week 17, not week 16.oh, and welcome to the board whodey. your first couple of contributions are very solid. refreshing takes in a watered down shark pool.
Thanks. I really appreciate it!
 
Doesn't this algorithm not account for playing Def by committee? If I strategically choose 2/3 defenses and play great matchups every week they will surely outpace the 12th best fantasy defense in the league.

 
This algorithm would be more valuable if defenses didn't turnover so much year to year.
With the exception of 1 season by BAL the ravens and bears have been extremely steady. with that said i would only take chicago using this algorithm.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
Doesn't this algorithm not account for playing Def by committee? If I strategically choose 2/3 defenses and play great matchups every week they will surely outpace the 12th best fantasy defense in the league.
Sure, if you looked back retrospectively and chose 2 later defenses whose schedules meshed perfectly this could *possibly* be done. But I wouldn't count on it. First, you have to pick 2 decent defenses and I agree that they change drastically from year to year (except for the top 3-4). Second, the opponents change every year - a year ago the saints looked great as an opponent before the season started, etc.Rethink how you draft your defense. Especially in leagues like these where the top DEF scores over 200 points. Would you like to have a defense that scores like a 3rd RB? I would. And I'm willing to use a 6th or 7th rounder to get that advantage over someone who waits till the last round to get a mediocre defense and every once in a while gets lucky and gets a decent defense. In that case I might outscore his D by *only* 80 points or so. :sadbanana:
 
I went back and reviewed my league's draft last year. Chicago went late 7th round. There were no real difference makers that were drafted after that point in the draft. Makes sense to me to draft a solid Defence (Chicago, SD, NE or Balt) around this time.

 
I went back and reviewed my league's draft last year. Chicago went late 7th round. There were no real difference makers that were drafted after that point in the draft. Makes sense to me to draft a solid Defence (Chicago, SD, NE or Balt) around this time.
Can you post the points of the top D in your league, CHI's points and the 12th DEF's points from your league?
 
I went back and reviewed my league's draft last year. Chicago went late 7th round. There were no real difference makers that were drafted after that point in the draft. Makes sense to me to draft a solid Defence (Chicago, SD, NE or Balt) around this time.
Can you post the points of the top D in your league, CHI's points and the 12th DEF's points from your league?
Here they are:1. Ravens, Baltimore BAL Def 312.95 2. Bears, Chicago CHI Def 283.78 12. Cowboys, Dallas DAL Def 186.05
 
This algorithm would be more valuable if defenses didn't turnover so much year to year.
;) just a couple years ago the Bears were a last round pick.
Yes, ok - I get it. DEF do turn over a lot. I'm not debating that. I agree.But elite DEF do not turnover a lot unless they have lost sig players. The Bears have not. They'll be studs again. And compared to the rest of the league their schedule is very very nice.
 
I like this theory. Here is the data for the top 12 DEF/ST in my league last year:

Ravens 240.0

Bears 225.0

Patriots 168.0

Chargers 156.0

Vikings 152.0

Packers 148.0

Dolphins 147.0

Titans 143.0

Eagles 140.0

Cowboys 138.0

Steelers 135.0

Bills 135.0

I'm drafting from the #2 slot, so I may actually take the CHI or BAL D at 5.02. They scored about 100 more points than most of the other players I'd be looking at for that pick. Guys will laugh, but I don't care.

 
Uhh...keep in mind that a lot of CHI's pts on def came from TD's last year. And many of them were from Devin Hester. I doubt he does what he did last year with all the return TD's.

 
STEP 1: If the top DEF in your league scores 200 or more points proceed to step 2, if not then wait on defenses as normal

STEP 2: If CHI and/or BALT were better 100 points than the 12th best team proceed to step 3, if not then wait on defenses as normal

STEP 3: Draft CHI then BALT in that order beginning in the 6th round (or NE if you think they are clearly better than BALT this year)

Basically what I have imposed on myself is that I have to rethink how I have been viewing DEF. A difference of 100 pts is too much to pass up. And I think that CHI is just about the closest thing to being #1 at their position outside of Peyton Manning at QB (ok, maybe LT at RB as well).

I have grabbed CHI early in 2 draft already in these high scoring DEF leagues. I challenge you to re-think how you draft defenses on these leagues as well.
No defense can ever be the "closest thing to #1 at their position outside of _______". There's just too much turnover on defense from season to season. That's the key- getting a stud defense will give you a huge advantage, but defenses generally go so late because, historically speaking, it's a lot harder to identify WHICH defenses are going to be studs. I mean, in a hypothetical situation, let's say that you knew that one defense this year was going to outscore all the others by a thousand points... but you didn't know which one it was. Would you respond by drafting a defense in the first based on the fact that, if you got it right, you'd have a THOUSAND POINT differential? Or would you spend your early draft choices on players that you were sure about and then start buying lottery tickets later in the draft?Placekickers are the same way. Neil Rackers and Robbie Gould have proven that having an elite kicker makes a HUGE difference for your fantasy team... but they have also proven that it's almost impossible to tell before the season which kickers are going to be elite.

Uhh...keep in mind that a lot of CHI's pts on def came from TD's last year. And many of them were from Devin Hester. I doubt he does what he did last year with all the return TD's.
Just curious: On what basis do you doubt him?
Devin Hester set an all-time NFL record last season. He's as likely to repeat as Tomlinson is. Tell me, do you have Tomlinson projected for 30+ TDs again? Did you expect Manning to get 50 scores in 2005? Whenever someone sets an ALL TIME NFL RECORD, they are a near lock to regress the following season.In 1994, Deion Sanders had a remarkable 3 TDs on INT returns. It was three years before he scored another one. In 2002, Derrick Brooks set an NFL record with four defensive TDs scored. In the other eleven seasons of his career COMBINED, he has 3 defensive TDs. Dante Hall went from a chic pick for NFL MVP to a retread in just 3 seasons. These things are records for a reason- because the seasons are extremely, extremely rare. Even if you like Hester, do you really think that, despite the long and storied history of the NFL, Devin Hester is going to do what no one in the history of the game has ever done... two years in a row?

 
Stay away from the Ravens this year. Toughest schedule for fantasy D/STs in the league. I'd draft the Chargers over the Ravens for that reason, plus the gimme against the Raiders in week 16.
Chase,Clayton's SoS on this site has BAL as the 10th toughest schedule for fantasy D's (tied with GB and TEN). I know you are an expert stat monger, so if you have different rankings, I'd love to see them.
 
surferguy said:
whodeywhodey said:
surferguy said:
Here they are:1. Ravens, Baltimore BAL Def 312.95 2. Bears, Chicago CHI Def 283.78 12. Cowboys, Dallas DAL Def 186.05
:shrug: Wow. Just wow.
The key is to get the top 1 or 2 defence. Not as easy as it sounds. I'm confident in Chicago and Baltimore. NE and SD not so much. Going into last year, Carolina's D was ranked 2nd (Chicago was 1st) and they sucked bigtime.
How is this different than any other position? Shaun Alexander was ranked 2nd, and he was a total bust. Some had Chad Johnson second, and he was a bust, although not as bad. If team DEF scores a lot of fantasy points as whodeywhodey says, they typically get points for Points Allowed and Yards Allowed, which is less volatile than TDs or turnovers. Often, we neglect to notice how large their VBD value is. The top few are worth that 6th round pick easily. If they bust, at least it was only a 6th rounder. If you had CHI or BAL last year, you had a nice advantage over your opponents.
 
Shaun Alexander was ranked 2nd, and he was a total bust.
Down the stretch he was pretty damn good with 670 rush and 5 TDs in the final 6 games. Just sayin'.Im not disagreeing with what you were saying about the value of real good defenses though.

 
Last edited by a moderator:

Users who are viewing this thread

Back
Top