My Pre-Preseason Auction League plan. (long) (1 Viewer)

[The Ref]

The Refs Pre-Preseason plan. What I am thinking and how I plan on approaching my PPR keeper auction league.

First let me start off by saying I love auction style leagues, and I have had a fair amount of sucess with them. Participating in an auction league gives you many different options on how you can plan your draft. You can go in guns a blazing and draft LT2 and SJ and fill in with lower tiered players. Or you can go out and draft many different teen ranked RB's and 30 something WR's with a stud QB/TE/D mixed in and hope something sticks. And of course you can have a more traditional method and draft a stud RB, a few other top tier WR's, and then spread the rest of your money out. I have seen many different theorys at work to varying degrees of sucess. Personally I think it's the best way to draft bar none. Below is my personal attempt at "the perfect draft" as I see it for this coming year. Of course, who knows what the season will bring or what my fellow owners think of the players I am targeting, but thats what draft day is all about.

My league is a 1QB/2RB/3WR/1SW/1TE/1TDST/1K roster and like I already said is PPR. My personal plan is to build a top heavy team with a Stud RB, a Stud WR, two second tier WR that can perform higher, and a second tier RB that will produce good value, and try and save money overall by going QBBC, TDBC, and get a bargain at TE.

Step 1 STUD RB:

Lets put it out there what everyone already knows. LT2 and SJ are going to go for way too much money this year. It's not that they are not worth a large price tag, but there are always at least 5 guys in every league who will take the "F it" approach and put the eggs in one large basket. And if there are 5 guys in your league who would love to have one of the top 2, then your going to have a bidding war on your hands. Then you also have a bunch of really good backs that are all in every mags/websites top 12 who just are not as adept as some others in a PPR format. Portis, Alexander, Rudi Johnson, Frank Gore (see Jordan, LaMont and Turner, Norv), and Larry Johnson to name a few.

At the same time - everyone needs a top back to carry the load. The Three I am looking at should be of little surprise to anyone familiar to the PPR format. Brian Westbrook, Willie Parker, and only to a slightly lesser extent Reggie Bush. All three will produce many receptions, many yards, and hopefully many touchdowns. There is one fundamental issue with all three, and that is they are all smallish RB's and some may argue have a tendency to be hurt more easily as a result (see Westbrook alone). I do accept these players as a bit of a risk, but I think it's a risk well taken. As LHucks has accurately said in the past IMHO, Drafting Rudi Johnson is a formula to finish in third place. Well in PPR, it's a formula to finish in fifth.

Step 2 A Stud WR:

I personally think there are 8 Studs this year. Holt, TO, Smith, CJ, Wayne, Harrison, R Williams, and L Fitz. Basically, I am looking for overall value here. I don't plan on drafting the first one off the board, and I don't want to put myself in a position to draft the last one on the board. As I am looking for the best deal possible my gut tells me that TO or Harrison are going to be the ones that are going to slip a buck or two. One due to age, well and the other because there are several documented issues.

Step 3 draft two second tier (WR13-WR24) WR who had a shot at tier one status:

There is a list of interesting candidates in "this nieborhood". Walker, Driver, Colston, Edwards, Moss, and Moss to name a few. But of all the players around to choose from I believe that these three have the best chance of breaking into the top 12. TJ Whosyourmoma (yes I mean T.J. Houshmandzadeh of the Bengalis), Hines Ward, and Lee Evens. I am looking for upside here and am willing to pay a small premium for two of these three.

Step 4 draft a serviceable RB2 :

I really am targeting Ahman Green for this. This guy is ranked at the back of the RB2 pack (RB 22 area) in most publications. All I see is someone who if healthy will go for 1K yards with 45ish receptions and a handful of TD's. I guess I can see why he isn't as highly rated in regular scoring as his TD count is in question, but in PPR I hope he goes for cheap dollars and hope the TD's will be there so he outplays his perceived raking.

If I have pulled this off - I think I am well ahead of the game and am ready to put some final touches on my team.

Step 5a start to fill in starters on the cheap.

At this point I'll still need a SW, TE, QB, K, and a D and I will have very little money left due to all the players I have already spent it on. Kicker is an automatic Min Bid, end of (well documented) story. As far as I am concerned, QBBC and Team D BC is the way to go. If done right you should be able to get three close to min bid QB's and two min bid Team D's and be able to keep up with everyone else. Every dollar that is spent on QB's and Team D can be mitigated by smart match up play on my part (if done right).

Step 5b Draft a TE:

Basically I have the same approach here as I do for my Stud WR1. Get one of the top 9. Gates, Heap, East Side Shockey, and Gonzo are probably out of my price range but If I do have some dollars left over somehow I think Kellen Winslow Jr is the guy who I would put it on. But more then likely everyone else is going to know how well of a PPR guy he was last year. So basically I will need to try and acquire Cooley, Witten, Davis or LJ Smith and try and do so on the cheap.

Step 5C get as many players as you can who can pan out for your swing:

Even though I am top heavy on my main positions, I should have saved enough money to draft a small handful of players to pan out to be my swing. Personally my current targets are the Tenn RB situation, the GB RB situation, the Detroit RB situation, and any one of a bunch of WR sleepers you hear about on this board (DJ Hackett anyone?).

So there it is, my thoughts as of tonight. I wonder how much of this will change during the preseason and then ultimately by the actions of the others in my league come draft night.

 

[SelenaCat]

Great stuff here!

I have a tendency to hold out too long for "value" further into the auction and inevitably wind up overpaying for a player later on because all of the top picks are flying off the board. Looking back at our past winners, however, grabbing the top RB's or top QB's rarely pans out. It's usually the teams that grabbed a 5-10 RB, 5-10 WR and a 5-10 QB with solid #2 positions and good flyer pickups that make it to the playoffs.

 

[Stealthycat]

A top QB in Manning will give you 4000 yards and 30+ TD's ........ a HUGE leap over tier 2 QB's that will give you 16-20 TD's and 3000 yards

 

[Bayhawks]

I think it depends on each individual league. In my Auction league, you would have NO shot of getting one of the stud RBs you named+one of the stud WRs+1(let alone 2) of the 2nd tier WRs you named.

However, this is due to the fact that we can keep players. This does two things: 1) it allows some players to be bought (& subsequently kept) cheaply (i.e. Gore for 3% of the cap, FWP for 1% of the cap, etc); 1) since some players are kept (& most kept players are cheap OR studs, or both) this makes the "stud pool" to choose from smaller, and the amount of cap money to be spent on them higher. Simple supply and demand-smaller supply, larger demand=higher cost.

 

[Pip's Invitation]

I think it depends on each individual league. In my Auction league, you would have NO shot of getting one of the stud RBs you named+one of the stud WRs+1(let alone 2) of the 2nd tier WRs you named. However, this is due to the fact that we can keep players. This does two things: 1) it allows some players to be bought (& subsequently kept) cheaply (i.e. Gore for 3% of the cap, FWP for 1% of the cap, etc); 1) since some players are kept (& most kept players are cheap OR studs, or both) this makes the "stud pool" to choose from smaller, and the amount of cap money to be spent on them higher. Simple supply and demand-smaller supply, larger demand=higher cost.

In fantasy baseball auctions, we call this "inflation." It means that to get the top players, you'll have to pay more than what they're worth. If there are a lot of keepers, this can trickle down to the mid-tier guys too.

 

[The Ref]

Great stuff here!I have a tendency to hold out too long for "value" further into the auction and inevitably wind up overpaying for a player later on because all of the top picks are flying off the board. Looking back at our past winners, however, grabbing the top RB's or top QB's rarely pans out. It's usually the teams that grabbed a 5-10 RB, 5-10 WR and a 5-10 QB with solid #2 positions and good flyer pickups that make it to the playoffs.

Yup - there has to be a good balance. You cant go too top heavy because you will have too many holes at the end of your WR/RB core. At the same time you cant expect to beat a team who poured all his resources in his starting lineup when you drafted depth and have a lot of your resources on your bench. Either one of these approaches is folly.In my experience, the players who fill up there RB and WR spots and make due with the best they can at the end of the draft and waiver wire at TE/QB/SW have the best shot at winning.

 

[The Ref]

A top QB in Manning will give you 4000 yards and 30+ TD's ........ a HUGE leap over tier 2 QB's that will give you 16-20 TD's and 3000 yards

I can't argue that fact. Having Manning, Palmer, Bulder, Brady, etc on your team will give you an advantage over someone who is going QBBC and who is splitting time between Rivers and Carr (like I did last year). But having stronger WR and RB then the person who went out and spent big money on a top QB is a stronger advantage over the course of the year IMHO.

 

[Lehigh98]

Do you go into the auction with a planned budget per position and/or per actual player?

I'm trying a few different combinations based on anticipated player values to see what looks best.

My three keepers are:

Reggie Bush - $50

Joseph Addai - $20

MJD - $10

I've been screwing around with the following allocations:

QB ($21) - $16, $3, $2

RB ($101) - ($50, $20, $10 - My 3 keepers) $20, $1

WR ($64) - $24, $20, $14, $5, $1

TE ($10) - $9, $1

K ($1) - $1

D ($3) - $2, $1

(I'm on the fence for that additional $20 RB spot, I's like to get Peterson or Lynch for a potential keeper but may decide to alocate those $'s somewhere else for a stronger team since I'm solid at RB already)

Those types of allocations would yield something like this:

QB 8 Tony Romo Dal/8

QB 18 Alex Smith SF/6

QB 25 Byron Leftwich Jac/4

RB 3 Reggie Bush NO/4

RB 6 Joseph Addai Ind/6

RB 10 Maurice Jones-Drew Jac/4

RB 28 Marshawn Lynch Buf/6

RB 59 DeDe Dorsey Ind/6

WR 14 Lee Evans Buf/6

WR 17 Braylon Edwards Cle/7

WR 24 Reggie Brown Phi/5

WR 31 D.J. Hackett Sea/8

WR 48 Mike Furrey Det/6

TE 8 Vernon Davis SF/6

TE 16 Bo Scaife Ten/4

PK - Whoever's left

DT - DBBC

I'm still tinkering with the plan though, that was just a first run. Thoughts?

 

[GregR_2]

I think it's good to have an idea of "This is how I think the auction will play out, and if so this is what I'll probably end up with."

But, I don't think it's a good idea to go into an auction with a "plan". To maximize your team in an auction you have to continually adjust for what is going on in the auction. I prefer to go into the auction with a value for every significant player (i.e. fantasy starter and key backups). My goal is to get a certain amount of my money into my starters, but to pay less than what I think the player is worth. It doesn't matter at what position, as long as my values are well done, $1 spent on a WR will be worth as much to me as a $1 spent on a RB.

In some cases the league as a whole is overspending, and just to get a worthwhile starter you may have to overspend too, especially at RB. The key then is to overspend less than other teams are, which should give you better quality for your other starters.

So, anyway, that's just my . I'd be in the bidding for every player until they get close to what I think their appropriate salary is. If other players at the position are being overspent on, I might overspend by a bit less than they have, and drop out if they continue past the amount I gain an advantage over them at. If they never bid up to the point that they reach my value of the player, then I win him and get a good deal and can jot down how much I'm ahead so I know I have extra discretionary cash to use.

 

[BigRed]

At this point I'll still need a SW,

? You draft while golfing? I agree that you will (should) be hard-pressed to get a top RB, top WR, and 1 or 2 upper-tier WRs, but it's possible.I tend to try and get one of the top 2-3 RBs, one 2d tier RB, and a top 5 TE. This year though I'm nixing the "discount QB" bit and taking a bigger chance on a top QB, so may have to settle for lesser RB2 and maybe even cheaper WRs. But we're PPR now too so who knows.....

 

[Willowdoc]

Maybe I do too much work, but I think Draft Dominator is far more valuable for an auction than in a snake draft. once I put in my own projections I use DD to calculate base values. I will spend up to 100% of my base value on any player I would draft in the top 5 or 6 in a snake. For the next 15 - 25 players, my value is 95%. Then the 4 through 6 rounders 85 - 90 % (lower numbers for QBs). I also correct for the number of $1 and $2 players that each of my leagues draft by history when I create my values. And I follow my values (DD corrects them during the draft based on money spent, this is a huge advantage). It frequently forces me to draft players I dont like. But it seems no one likes the same players. And I have already downsized their projections - so I frequently end up with bargains early. In last years WCOFF auction, Tiki was the first player off the board, I won him for 75% of my calculated value for him and he ended up being the 7th priced player (yet drafted as #4 everywhere). This kind of strategy really lets you know where the bargains are.

 

[H.K.]

Do you go into the auction with a planned budget per position and/or per actual player?I'm trying a few different combinations based on anticipated player values to see what looks best.My three keepers are:Reggie Bush - $50Joseph Addai - $20MJD - $10I've been screwing around with the following allocations:QB ($21) - $16, $3, $2 RB ($101) - ($50, $20, $10 - My 3 keepers) $20, $1 WR ($64) - $24, $20, $14, $5, $1TE ($10) - $9, $1K ($1) - $1D ($3) - $2, $1(I'm on the fence for that additional $20 RB spot, I's like to get Peterson or Lynch for a potential keeper but may decide to alocate those $'s somewhere else for a stronger team since I'm solid at RB already)Those types of allocations would yield something like this:QB 8 Tony Romo Dal/8QB 18 Alex Smith SF/6QB 25 Byron Leftwich Jac/4RB 3 Reggie Bush NO/4RB 6 Joseph Addai Ind/6RB 10 Maurice Jones-Drew Jac/4RB 28 Marshawn Lynch Buf/6RB 59 DeDe Dorsey Ind/6WR 14 Lee Evans Buf/6WR 17 Braylon Edwards Cle/7WR 24 Reggie Brown Phi/5WR 31 D.J. Hackett Sea/8WR 48 Mike Furrey Det/6TE 8 Vernon Davis SF/6TE 16 Bo Scaife Ten/4PK - Whoever's leftDT - DBBCI'm still tinkering with the plan though, that was just a first run. Thoughts?

IMO with your strong list of keepers, you don't need Lynch. Use that money to upgrade at WR and you'll be very tough to beat.

 

[Lehigh98]

PPR keeper auction league

Which young or cheap players are you targeting for potential keepers next year?

 

[The Ref]

PPR keeper auction league

Which young or cheap players are you targeting for potential keepers next year?

Turner, Hackett, Holmes, and Henderson.

 

[AnonymousBob]

I had been looking to go wr heavy but my plans went out the window when LT and Travis Henry went for prices I deemed to be bargains. When Peyton was only going for a couple dollars more than I had projected, I swapped my savings over to that spot. I may have a few holes that will need mending as the season moves forward but I have one heckuva foundation.

 

[Nate]

I think it's a mistake to go into an auction with too rigid of a budget. Generally I just make sure that I've got a top 5 back then I just stay patient and wait for the value to come; it always does. I specifically target the risky, high upside types. You only have to hit on a couple of those to make a nice starting lineup. I usually end up with a very deep team and I fill holes through trade during the season.