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My Projections are updated (once more) (1 Viewer)

Unlucky

Unlucky

Phenom
FINAL UPDATE 8/28 - just a few tweaks, mainly with WR battles being sorted out. Bobby Wade is probably the biggest mover up. I did boost Calvin Johnson a little - he is good.

This was posted last week:

I don't like to move players too much in the pre-season. I only adjust when it becomes clearer on certain playing time battles and injuries.

Projections can be found here: http://www.phenomsff.com/projections/index.html

Players that I feel are underrated or overrated, comparing my projections to the ADP info

QB - underrated

McNabb

Romo

Kitna

Roethlisberger

Garcia

T. Green

QB - overrated

Brees

Hasselbeck

Rivers

Cutler

RB - underrated

B. Jacobs

A. Green

RB - overrated

R. Bush

W. McGahee

WR - underrated

M. Colston

L. Evans

R. Moss

J. Galloway

J. Cotchery

I. Bruce

A. Toomer

M. Furrey

YES, this many WRs are underrated. I will cleanup with mid to late round WRs this season.

WR - overrated

L. Fitzgerald (sad - I love the guy, but I don't see his numbers justifying his draft spot)

T. J. Houshmandzadeh

Calvin Johnson - very overrated right now [NOTE - maybe not as overrated as before, but still overrated for this season]

D. Branch

D. Stallworth

K. Curtis

J. Horn

TE - underrated

J. Witten - maybe just a little bit

Dallas Clark - he's going very late, and I do worry about Gonzalez taking some looks, but you can't ignore his playoff numbers last year and the fact that he was injured in the regular season.

TE - overrated

I don't really have any - my projections match up well with the consensus. Maybe V. Davis just a little bit, and LJ Smith just a little bit.

 
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I'm also surprised at how small of a difference you've projected between Manning and everyone else.

I always enjoy your work, thanks for doing this for the rest of us.

 
Good stuff.

I think Jacobs and TJ are the only ones you mention here that I disagree with.

Thanx for posting this - I'll be checking out the full list after work.

 
Nice looking site, Unlucky :towelwave:

My comments for the QBs are:

1) McNabb at #2......that's gutsy, even if McNabb can stay upright all year long. I have a feeling he won't run that much this year.

2) Can't see Bulger throwing for 4600 yds.

3) Agree with your Brees projection......he's overvalued IMO.

4) You're REALLY down on Hasselbeck. Lower than Garcia? Not sure of that.

5) You definitely have Cutler much farther down your list than average. He's my #10QB.

6) Favre is pretty low as well......he should throw for more TDs than you're showing.

7) Rex Grossman might lose 6-8 fumbles......2 is too low.

Overall, your projected stats seem too high in total.....but still, good job.

 
fightingillini said:
Overall, your projected stats seem too high in total.....but still, good job.
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I forgot to metion: I don't project injuries. So, the individual totals will seem high compared to historical amounts. I'm sure I have more 1000 yd RBs than history. However, my leaguewide totals are pretty solid. It's just the distribution will change when guys get hurt, and you can't predict that. As for Hasselbeck - he has nobody to throw to. Branch and Hackett are not that good, Pollard is the only weapon at TE, and Alexander is back. All of that = lower passing numbers to me.
 
If Chambers puts up those numbers after laying that egg for me last year, I am going to fly down to Miami and kick him in the jimmy.

 
1. You like Eli Manning (#12) better than Leinart, A. Smith, Favre, Delhomme, and Hasselbeck?

2. M. Barber 13 TDs?

3. ATL has only 10 TDs ging to its WRs?

4. Desmond Clark 5 TDs, Olsen only 2?

5. STL 9th D and PHI 15th? Please explain.

 
you had Branch and Hackett both at 800+ yds. I would think one or both would be pretty close to 1k.

overall, nice job. thanks for sharing your #s.

 
3nOut said:
1. You like Eli Manning (#12) better than Leinart, A. Smith, Favre, Delhomme, and Hasselbeck? 2. M. Barber 13 TDs?3. ATL has only 10 TDs ging to its WRs?4. Desmond Clark 5 TDs, Olsen only 2?5. STL 9th D and PHI 15th? Please explain.
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1. I don't "like" any QB more than another. I just project the team and see where they come out. Eli is only a handful of points higher than those you mentioned, so it's really a coinflip. Eli throws a bit more TDs than those guys, and that's the difference.2. Is 13 too low or too high? He's the goalline RB on an offense that is going to score a lot of points. He scored 16 TDs total last year.3. Joey Harrington sucks. The WRs in ATL suck. What more do you want?4. Clark is good. Olsen is a rookie. Look at Clark's career numbers - he's good, and last I checked, he's still starting.5. Henning is in year 2 rebuilding that D. It's going to get better. Also, the Rams will blow some people out early, which leads to predictable passing and more sacks/INTs for the D. There isn't really much difference in my projections for those two Ds.
 
Comments about your RB projections:

1) Addai with 14TDs? Seems high.....I believe Edge exceeded that total only once when he was in IND.

2) You must not think Droughns is a threat to take carries from Jacobs.

3) Adrian Peterson 4.8 YPC? Why do you think it will be that high?

4) You expect MJD to score 15TDs again?

Again, it seems if your projections seem too high when compared to reality. You have 16 RBs scoring 10 or more rushing TDs. Only 9 RBs scored 10 or more TDs last year and in 2005. You have 17 RBs carrying the ball 300 times. Only 10 RBs in 2006 carried the ball more than 300 times. I understand that you make your projections assuming all play 16 games, and injuries happen, but I would expect projections to be closer to reality.....just slightly higher than actuals.

Despite this criticism, this is still good work.

 
Unlucky said:
fightingillini said:
Overall, your projected stats seem too high in total.....but still, good job.
Click to expand...
I forgot to metion: I don't project injuries. So, the individual totals will seem high compared to historical amounts. I'm sure I have more 1000 yd RBs than history. However, my leaguewide totals are pretty solid. It's just the distribution will change when guys get hurt, and you can't predict that. As for Hasselbeck - he has nobody to throw to. Branch and Hackett are not that good, Pollard is the only weapon at TE, and Alexander is back. All of that = lower passing numbers to me.
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I understand that.....but it just seems that, if no QB gets injured, that these stats that you're projecting are probably not attainable.Just my opinion. I respect that you post your projections. Always good to see one's view of all the players. :lmao:
 
fightingillini said:
Comments about your RB projections:1) Addai with 14TDs? Seems high.....I believe Edge exceeded that total only once when he was in IND.2) You must not think Droughns is a threat to take carries from Jacobs.3) Adrian Peterson 4.8 YPC? Why do you think it will be that high?4) You expect MJD to score 15TDs again?Again, it seems if your projections seem too high when compared to reality. You have 16 RBs scoring 10 or more rushing TDs. Only 9 RBs scored 10 or more TDs last year and in 2005. You have 17 RBs carrying the ball 300 times. Only 10 RBs in 2006 carried the ball more than 300 times. I understand that you make your projections assuming all play 16 games, and injuries happen, but I would expect projections to be closer to reality.....just slightly higher than actuals.Despite this criticism, this is still good work.
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1. Addai is good. Indy RBs had 13 TDs in 2006, 18 TDs in 2005. Edge had 13 TDs rushing 3 times in Indy. 14 isn't a stretch.2. I think Droughns isn't good, and Jacobs is much better.3. Peterson is good. His O-line is good. He will rip off plenty of long runs. 4. With how pathetic the passing game is, MJD will be the one and only option inside the 5. Look at his splits - he'll get plenty of chances from there. As I mentioned, my leaguewide totals are solid. I'm slightly above last year in my leaguewide rushing totals, but not by more than 1 to 5%. What really matters is how guys compare to each other. If everyone's totals are inflated, that's OK.
 
I like your WR projections the best so far. Comments are:

1) R Moss is a little high......IMO he probably won't catch 78 passes......Brady spreads the ball around too much.

2) Colston is too high.......I have posted in the Shark Pool about my concerns about Colston.....my projection for him is 73 rec, 1050 yds, 7 TD

Not sure what the "Bonus" scoring system is, but I would suggest having a sort for a PPR scoring system.

Good job.

 
Unlucky said:
What really matters is how guys compare to each other. If everyone's totals are inflated, that's OK.
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I totally agree with that. The relativity between guys is all that matters. As long as you're consistent in setting your projections.....and you are consistent on the high side.After the year is over, I like to compare my projections to actuals to see how I did. If I did a perfect job, then about 50% of the guys will exceed the projections and 50% will not exceed the projections.....all of this after taking into account injuries. I use this analysis as my beginning guide as to setting the next year's projections.
 
Unlucky said:
As for Hasselbeck - he has nobody to throw to. Branch and Hackett are not that good, Pollard is the only weapon at TE
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But that argument could apply to Brady in recent years, or even McNabb last year. Enjoyed the rankings, BTW.
 
Unlucky said:
3nOut said:
1. You like Eli Manning (#12) better than Leinart, A. Smith, Favre, Delhomme, and Hasselbeck? 2. M. Barber 13 TDs?3. ATL has only 10 TDs ging to its WRs?4. Desmond Clark 5 TDs, Olsen only 2?5. STL 9th D and PHI 15th? Please explain.
Click to expand...
1. I don't "like" any QB more than another. I just project the team and see where they come out. Eli is only a handful of points higher than those you mentioned, so it's really a coinflip. Eli throws a bit more TDs than those guys, and that's the difference.2. Is 13 too low or too high? He's the goalline RB on an offense that is going to score a lot of points. He scored 16 TDs total last year.3. Joey Harrington sucks. The WRs in ATL suck. What more do you want?4. Clark is good. Olsen is a rookie. Look at Clark's career numbers - he's good, and last I checked, he's still starting.5. Henning is in year 2 rebuilding that D. It's going to get better. Also, the Rams will blow some people out early, which leads to predictable passing and more sacks/INTs for the D. There isn't really much difference in my projections for those two Ds.
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1. I don't see Eli throwng more TDs than Leinart for eample. Tiki is gone and only Buress and Shockey stand out to me. Leinart has more targets in Fitz, Boldin, Johnson, Edge, and even Pope.2. Too high. I guess I'm not convinced he will take all of the GL carries. JJ looked pretty good from in cloe so far.3. Are you saying that he will not have any 2 TD games and that he will go 6 games without ven throwing ONE? He had morein Miami last year and had no targets. Even Carr and Huard had more last year.4. I think Clark will be used more for blocking nd olsen for receiving.5. I think #9 is a little too high but I hope you are right. I kept them as my keeper D hoping Hall can add a few TDs to their return game.I guess we just have a different take on some things....
 
Mystery Achiever said:
fightingillini said:
Not sure what the "Bonus" scoring system is, but I would suggest having a sort for a PPR scoring system.
Click to expand...
Bonus includes ppr; you can find the specific on the phenoms site.Thx for these, Mike. Do you have Troupe higher than Scaife based on expectation re: playing time or performance?
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MA, do you like Scaife and are you in OMEGA 20 this year?I have Scaife in 2 leagues.

unlucky. Nice job as usual.

 
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There it is said:
[MA, do you like Scaife and are you in OMEGA 20 this year?I have Scaife in 2 leagues.
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Yes and yes. I will admit it because I don't think you're on my league :shrug: - is that you in #1? The reason I asked Mike the question is that I liked Scaife assuming he was getting decent playing time. If Troupe is the starter, I have to re-think it.
 
Mystery Achiever said:
There it is said:
[MA, do you like Scaife and are you in OMEGA 20 this year?I have Scaife in 2 leagues.
Click to expand...
Yes and yes. I will admit it because I don't think you're on my league :thumbup: - is that you in #1? The reason I asked Mike the question is that I liked Scaife assuming he was getting decent playing time. If Troupe is the starter, I have to re-think it.
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Yes in 1. Remember Scaife and Young were team mates at Texas.
 
Unlucky said:
WR - underratedM. ColstonL. EvansR. MossJ. GallowayJ. CotcheryI. BruceA. ToomerM. FurreyYES, this many WRs are underrated. I will cleanup with mid to late round WRs this season.
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Good info here Unlucky. You never know where it might come in handy :)
 
There will be only 5 fumbles from WRs this year?

And only 1 fumble from a TE?

 
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massraider said:
If Chambers puts up those numbers after laying that egg for me last year, I am going to fly down to Miami and kick him in the jimmy.
Click to expand...
Ill meet you there and we can take turns.
 
Thanks. I agree with the list and would add D Jackson to the under list as SF should be able to move the ball a little bit better and teams will be focusing on Gore, and perhaps later Davis, a bit.

 
Alberta Clipper said:
Unlucky said:
WR - underratedM. ColstonL. EvansR. MossJ. GallowayJ. CotcheryI. BruceA. ToomerM. FurreyYES, this many WRs are underrated. I will cleanup with mid to late round WRs this season.
Click to expand...
Good info here Unlucky. You never know where it might come in handy :goodposting:
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Hmmm, did I end up with 2 of those guys in our draft so far? Perhaps more on the way?
 
' said:
There will be only 5 fumbles from WRs this year?And only 1 fumble from a TE?
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Those are so unpredictable and almost never does a WR or TE lose 2 fumbles in a season, that it's not worth projecting. I should probably even erase those couple I have projected. Obviously, there will be more fumbles than that, but it's a total crapshoot.
 
Very nice! Thanks for the info. The only thing that really stands out is Randy Moss's numbers. Can't see that happening but more power to you if it does. Thanks again.

 
Unlucky said:
I don't like to move players too much in the pre-season. I only adjust when it becomes clearer on certain playing time battles and injuries.

Projections can be found here: http://www.phenomsff.com/projections/index.html

Players that I feel are underrated or overrated, comparing my projections to the ADP info

QB - underrated

McNabb

Romo

Kitna

Roethlisberger

Garcia

T. Green

QB - overrated

Brees

Hasselbeck

Rivers

Cutler

RB - underrated

B. Jacobs

A. Green

RB - overrated

R. Bush

W. McGahee

WR - underrated

M. Colston

L. Evans

R. Moss

J. Galloway

J. Cotchery

I. Bruce

A. Toomer

M. Furrey

YES, this many WRs are underrated. I will cleanup with mid to late round WRs this season.

WR - overrated

L. Fitzgerald (sad - I love the guy, but I don't see his numbers justifying his draft spot)

T. J. Houshmandzadeh

Calvin Johnson - very overrated right now

D. Branch

D. Stallworth

K. Curtis

J. Horn

TE - underrated

J. Witten - maybe just a little bit

Dallas Clark - he's going very late, and I do worry about Gonzalez taking some looks, but you can't ignore his playoff numbers last year and the fact that he was injured in the regular season.

TE - overrated

I don't really have any - my projections match up well with the consensus. Maybe V. Davis just a little bit, and LJ Smith just a little bit.
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Very nice..........tend to agree with you on a lot. Just to point out some slight differences I guess.

I think McNabb has slipped for me to not being underrated. He's about where he should be. Same for Kitna, he's crept up everyone's QB board to the point he's about on par with Bulger, Mcnabb etc..., that's not underrated to me anymore.

Definately agree with you on Calven Johnson. Guys gonna be very good..but he's being drafted way to high. Sure, he might be a superstar but drafting him as such is risky.

I don't like Flurrey as underrated, he's about right. I do like McDonald (detroit) as underrated who you could probably take as your last pick in the draft, as well as David Boston.

Love Jason Witten this year as like the TE 7 off the board, he'll catch a ton of balls and he'll get about 5 td's. Focusing on last year's 1 TD is a mistake by most drafters.

Don't like Isaac Bruce. *Ducks* but i think he's done.

 
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Unlucky said:
Alberta Clipper said:
Unlucky said:
WR - underratedM. ColstonL. EvansR. MossJ. GallowayJ. CotcheryI. BruceA. ToomerM. FurreyYES, this many WRs are underrated. I will cleanup with mid to late round WRs this season.
Click to expand...
Good info here Unlucky. You never know where it might come in handy :)
Click to expand...
Hmmm, did I end up with 2 of those guys in our draft so far? Perhaps more on the way?
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Well I didn't end up with any of those guys.I did end up with 2 of these guys though.
Unlucky said:
WR - overratedL. Fitzgerald (sad - I love the guy, but I don't see his numbers justifying his draft spot)T. J. HoushmandzadehCalvin Johnson - very overrated right nowD. BranchD. StallworthK. CurtisJ. Horn
Click to expand...
:D
 
Good work unlucky. I think you might have Randy Moss too low as Brady won't have to spread the ball around too much.

 
Good post, I don't agree with Branch being overvalued, someone is going to get those 10 TD's that DJAX got, I think it be Branch. Also training camp reports that I have read, stated that Branch is having an excellent camp, and Hass is coming back nicely from his injury season of 06. Just my 2c.

 
Gopher State said:
Good post, I don't agree with Branch being overvalued, someone is going to get those 10 TD's that DJAX got, I think it be Branch. Also training camp reports that I have read, stated that Branch is having an excellent camp, and Hass is coming back nicely from his injury season of 06. Just my 2c.
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I don't believe that just because DJax got 10 TDs, that whoever you put in his place will now get those. Branch has not been a big TD producer his entire career, and I think he's had chances. He's always been overvalued to me, with career highs of 998 yds and 5 TDs. That's not that good.
 
Looking at your projections, I am thrilled that I got Reggie Wayne + Lee Evans + Burress as my 3 WR combo in a PPR league.....hope your projections hold up.....championship!!!!

:excited: :hophead:

 
Final Projections Update today. Just a few tweaks, mainly.

If you want to win your league, use these projections for your draft or auction. :P

:confused:

 
Deuce said:
Must not be too worried about Holt's knee? 98 catches...seems high considering S. Jax's impact.
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I considered dropping Holt. I am concerned, but I think he finds a way to play through it this season. After this, it could be downhill quickly. From what I've read recently, he's made progress the past few weeks. Perhaps I should drop those numbers, but I'll definitely make a not that when I'm considering Holt or another equal WR, (say Owens, Harrison, etc.) I'll go with the other WR.
 
Just one question, was the omission of Duckett on purpose or just an oversight. Unless I missed him, I can't see the potential goalline option listed anywhere by you.

Aside from that, great job and thanks for sharing this.

 
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