My projections are updated (1 Viewer)

[Unlucky]

I hate to change too much in the pre-season, but some changes had to be made.

I like Reggie Bush and Mike Bell a lot. I'll be that one cracks the top 5.

Cadillac is way overvalued.

Fred Taylor, A. Green, and T. Jones are steals right now, going in rounds 4 or 5 of most drafts.

Andre Johnson is undervalued.

Portis is STILL a steal at pick #4 or later.

All of my QBs are jumbled after Manning. There is virtually nothing separating these guys in my rankings: Vick, Brooks, Brady, Bulger, Eli, Palmer, Culpepper, Bledsoe, Delhomme, Hasselbeck, and McNabb. Don't waste an early pick on one of them - wait to grab the last of this group. All have plenty of upside and downside. Plus, guys like Warner, Kitna, Brees, Plummer, McNair, etc. could surprise. Perhaps this makes Payton Manning all that more valuable?

Let me hear your thoughts!

LINK: http://www.phenomsff.com/projections/index.html

 

[joffer]

Andre Johnson is undervalued. Let me hear your thoughts!

i think Eric Moulds has a decent shot to catch more passes than Andre Johnson in 2006

 

[cr8f]

Portis is STILL a steal at pick #4 or later.

All of my QBs are jumbled after Manning. There is virtually nothing separating these guys in my rankings: Vick, Brooks, Brady, Bulger, Eli, Palmer, Culpepper, Bledsoe, Delhomme, Hasselbeck, and McNabb.

LINK: http://www.phenomsff.com/projections/index.html

Vick and Brady have the same ranking?Portis a steal? They just traded for Duckett due to portis' injury.

 

[CrossEyed]

Everything I've read has Hank Baskett currently the #2 WR in Philly. But he is nowhere to be found in your rankings.

 

[Two Deep]

Apparently Reggie Bush is going to knock Deuce to the bench, damn near completely?

Grammatica was cut today.

I would assume Washington is planning on running Duckett more than 60 times or they really F-up.

Just to name a few.

 

[hi1111]

aaron brooks throwing for 3900 ??

 

[Real Man of Genius]

I hate to change too much in the pre-season, but some changes had to be made.

I like Reggie Bush and Mike Bell a lot. I'll be that one cracks the top 5.

Cadillac is way overvalued.

Fred Taylor, A. Green, and T. Jones are steals right now, going in rounds 4 or 5 of most drafts.

Andre Johnson is undervalued.

Portis is STILL a steal at pick #4 or later.

All of my QBs are jumbled after Manning. There is virtually nothing separating these guys in my rankings: Vick, Brooks, Brady, Bulger, Eli, Palmer, Culpepper, Bledsoe, Delhomme, Hasselbeck, and McNabb. Don't waste an early pick on one of them - wait to grab the last of this group. All have plenty of upside and downside. Plus, guys like Warner, Kitna, Brees, Plummer, McNair, etc. could surprise. Perhaps this makes Payton Manning all that more valuable?

Let me hear your thoughts!

LINK: http://www.phenomsff.com/projections/index.html

Injured Portis with Duckett in town to score a career-high TD's?

Good work overall, thanks for sharing...

MIke Bell's rank is shocking.

 

[by_the_sea_wannabe]

aaron brooks throwing for 3900 ??

469038834019Passing yards for Oakland 3 of the past 4 years. Brooks threw for over 3800 twice in New Orleans. I don't the stretch here. I have him with 3400 only because I have serious doubts that he plays the whole year, but 3,900 is realistic if he does.

 

[Blackjacks]

Apparently Reggie Bush is going to knock Deuce to the bench, damn near completely?Grammatica was cut today.I would assume Washington is planning on running Duckett more than 60 times or they really F-up.Just to name a few.

I like it, you were going out on a limb instead of the same old normal stuffgood jobDuckett, IMO, was brought in there for insurance and insurance only. He also is also there in case they lose Betts in the offseason, they would have their other option. I still think as of today Betts is the back up in Wash.As for Reggie I could see him approaching the top 5. The guy is made for Fantasy Football, long runs and great catches....that's awesome.Portis and Bush owner

 

[Nigel Tufnel]

I hate to change too much in the pre-season, but some changes had to be made.

I like Reggie Bush and Mike Bell a lot. I'll be that one cracks the top 5.

Cadillac is way overvalued.

Fred Taylor, A. Green, and T. Jones are steals right now, going in rounds 4 or 5 of most drafts.

Andre Johnson is undervalued.

Portis is STILL a steal at pick #4 or later.

All of my QBs are jumbled after Manning. There is virtually nothing separating these guys in my rankings: Vick, Brooks, Brady, Bulger, Eli, Palmer, Culpepper, Bledsoe, Delhomme, Hasselbeck, and McNabb. Don't waste an early pick on one of them - wait to grab the last of this group. All have plenty of upside and downside. Plus, guys like Warner, Kitna, Brees, Plummer, McNair, etc. could surprise. Perhaps this makes Payton Manning all that more valuable?

Let me hear your thoughts!

LINK: http://www.phenomsff.com/projections/index.html

Injured Portis with Duckett in town to score a career-high TD's?

Good work overall, thanks for sharing...

MIke Bell's rank is shocking.

 

[Unlucky]

Everything I've read has Hank Baskett currently the #2 WR in Philly. But he is nowhere to be found in your rankings.

Missed this one. Thanks.

 

[Unlucky]

Apparently Reggie Bush is going to knock Deuce to the bench, damn near completely?Grammatica was cut today.I would assume Washington is planning on running Duckett more than 60 times or they really F-up.Just to name a few.

I think Bush is much better right now than McAllister. Why would NO feature the RB that is worse?I need to update Gramatica. Thanks.I would assume that Portis will be ready to go. Duckett is insurance for Portis, IMO. As long as Portis is healthy, he'll get the rock and be a stud.

 

[Jim Otto]

Injured Portis with Duckett in town to score a career-high TD's? Good work overall, thanks for sharing...

I tend to agree with this - Portis at #2 overall at the end of the season is not very likely IMO. To have him ahead of Alexander and Tomlinson at this point in the preseason with the recent trade and injury is simply wishful thinking. I hope he comes back strong and healthy and puts all of us naysayers to shame, however I think that right now he is a 2nd round pick at best (at least for redraft leagues). I hope someone takes him in the 1st round in my main money draft on Friday.

 

[Deuce'sWild]

Seem really low on FWP, and way too high on Bush and M.Bell. It's anyones guess though.

Can't see Mr Bush having 10 rush tds, especially with the success that Deuce has at the GL. He's one of the most successful RB in the league around the stripe.

You have a lot of Tds for RBs too...don't have the energy to analyze, but seems like you've projected a ton of RB tds for this year.

 

[Unlucky]

Seem really low on FWP, and way too high on Bush and M.Bell. It's anyones guess though.Can't see Mr Bush having 10 rush tds, especially with the success that Deuce has at the GL. He's one of the most successful RB in the league around the stripe.You have a lot of Tds for RBs too...don't have the energy to analyze, but seems like you've projected a ton of RB tds for this year.

1. Probably should move FWP up with Cowher annointing him the goalline RB. 2. McAllister had 13, 8, and 9 rushing TDs in his past three full years. Hardly "one of the most successful RB in the league around the stripe."3. It might seem like I have a lot of TDs for RBs, but I don't project injuries, thus the top guys get bigger numbers than they'll actually finish with. My league totals are on par, just the distribution is off. So, if you looked at things on a per game basis, they come out OK.

 

[grouse]

Am I the only one who thinks Tiki Barber's schedule looks like Murderers Row?

Ind

@Phi

@Sea

Was

@Atl

@Dal

TB

Hou

Chi

@Jac

@Ten

Dal

@Car

Phi

NO

Unlucky, I'm not sure I like Tiki's chances of notching 7, 100-yard games this year.

In addition, you predicted Steven Jackson to garner just 4, 100-yard games in 2006, but when I look at his schedule, I see considerably better prospects provided SJax can keep his heels on his feet from falling off.

Den

@SF

@Ari

Det

@GB

Sea

@SD

KC

@Sea

@Car

SF

Ari

Chi

@Oak

Was

@Min

Just my 2 cents.

 

[Two Deep]

Apparently Reggie Bush is going to knock Deuce to the bench, damn near completely?Grammatica was cut today.I would assume Washington is planning on running Duckett more than 60 times or they really F-up.Just to name a few.

I think Bush is much better right now than McAllister. Why would NO feature the RB that is worse?I need to update Gramatica. Thanks.I would assume that Portis will be ready to go. Duckett is insurance for Portis, IMO. As long as Portis is healthy, he'll get the rock and be a stud.

I not sure Bush will be ready to pick up blocking assignments and the other nuances of the position to take over for McAllister that quickly.I just find it hard to believe Washington would give up as much as they did for insurance. I still think Duckett will be used extensively in short yardage and goaline situations.

 

[nygiants56]

good list, thanks for the work!

just one thing you need to explain..

T.O. #1 WR?!?!



dude hasn't played a single down in preseason, practice or game..

just re-injured himself..tweaked the hammy again..

can't understand why you have Fitz and Boldin so low, and T.O. so high...

t.o.'s hammy is going to hold him back ALL year long..these things linger..joe horn said he was bothered by his hammy all last year...

just like what happened to Bruce in St Louis a few years ago..

after missing nearly ALL of preseason AND training camp, you're not the slightest bit worried about T.O. , not at this point yet?!?!

personally, I won't touch the guy now..too risky a pick..not with high pick, not with a low pick..he's just as likely to sit out all season or be stuck in Tuna's doghouse, than he is to see 90 catches...

 

[Mr_Cowboy]

I hate to change too much in the pre-season, but some changes had to be made.

I like Reggie Bush and Mike Bell a lot. I'll be that one cracks the top 5.

Cadillac is way overvalued.

Fred Taylor, A. Green, and T. Jones are steals right now, going in rounds 4 or 5 of most drafts.

Andre Johnson is undervalued.

Portis is STILL a steal at pick #4 or later.

All of my QBs are jumbled after Manning. There is virtually nothing separating these guys in my rankings: Vick, Brooks, Brady, Bulger, Eli, Palmer, Culpepper, Bledsoe, Delhomme, Hasselbeck, and McNabb. Don't waste an early pick on one of them - wait to grab the last of this group. All have plenty of upside and downside. Plus, guys like Warner, Kitna, Brees, Plummer, McNair, etc. could surprise. Perhaps this makes Payton Manning all that more valuable?

Let me hear your thoughts!

LINK: http://www.phenomsff.com/projections/index.html

Your M.Bell projections make me feel like this.........

 

[my man otis]

27 RBs rushing for over 1k yards?

The most in the past 3 years has been 18.

 

[4 - Digit Shark]

27 RBs rushing for over 1k yards?The most in the past 3 years has been 18.

I agree. even not projecting any injuries the numbers are too high.Holt as the #6 WR behind an injured T.O. and Moss is shocking to me. He's the safest WR on the board for me.

 

[NYG Endzone]

27 RBs rushing for over 1k yards?The most in the past 3 years has been 18.

Hes not predicting injuries.

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

27 RBs rushing for over 1k yards?

The most in the past 3 years has been 18.

They way to tell if he is projecting too many rushing yards is to add them all up and see if the total is about right. They should be somewhere around 57,000 or 58,000 for the league as a whole.How many RBs get 1000 yards may be a matter of distribution, rather than totals.

If I roll ten six-sided dice, I will project each die to land on 3.5. The projected total will be 35, which is a good total. But somebody looking at them may object that "Every time somebody rolls ten six-sided dice, at least two of them land on a number greater than four. But you are projecting that zero of them will land on four. What gives?"

The answer is that reasonable projections for each individual in a group will not look the same as reasonable projections for the group as a whole. The totals should be the same, but the distribution need not be.

That said, I have no idea whether Unlucky is projecting too many rushing yards because I have not totaled them. And whether he is projecting a reasonable number of rushing yards or not, I don't know whether he's distributed them in a reasonable manner because checking that would take more work than I'm willing to do as well.

 

[Native]

Thanks for sharing. Can you explain your reasoning behind Mike Vick as QB #2? Its an interesting call to say the least, but one that intrigues me.

thx

 

[salmonstud]

Unlucky,

You really opened yourself up for some pot shots with those projections. It's nice to see some very bold predictions. I guess I'm more mainstream with my projections....If Portis finishes as the #2 RB or better...I'll eat your shorts.

 

[Gopher State]

To much Koolaid on the Bush ranking. N.O. plans to have him returning kicks, etc. I don't see him getting more then 12 touches a game, with Duce getting about 14/16. If you get points for returning kicks Bush is worth more. Plus were talking the Saints here, not the Steelers, last time I looked their were some fairly good teams in Saints division, and don't think the Saints Def or o-line is all that great. I don't know if the Saints will even score 10 rushing TD's as a team this year.

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

Thanks for sharing. Can you explain your reasoning behind Mike Vick as QB #2? Its an interesting call to say the least, but one that intrigues me.

Something I've noticed myself is that the people who've done projections tend to rate Vick higher than the people who do rankings without doing projections.I think the reason is that when you sit down and do projections, you end up having to give Vick credit for about 600 rushing yards and a handfull of rushing TDs.In scoring systems where rushing yards are worth 2.5x passing yards, this is huge. It's like adding another 1800 passing yards to his total, turning a 2700-yard passer into a 4500-yard passer. It works out to quite a few fantasy points when you do the math.The obvious question is why he only finished as the #12 and #10 QB in the last two years. (He was #3 in 2003.) The answer is that he attempted only 321 and 387 passes, respectively. The Falcons run-pass ratio has been off the charts high. So he's ended up with only 2300-2400 passing yards.But IMO those are anomalously low numbers. It's hard not to project him for more passing yards than that if he starts the whole season, even if you still project him to get way fewer passing yards than any other starting QB.

 

[perry147]

T. OWENS at #1 WR is very questionable.

M. VICK at #2 QB benind only Manning is beyond sanity and reason is crazy.

A. BROOKS at #3 is beyond sanity and reason.

 

[Spartans Rule]

Thanks for sharing. Can you explain your reasoning behind Mike Vick as QB #2? Its an interesting call to say the least, but one that intrigues me.

Something I've noticed myself is that the people who've done projections tend to rate Vick higher than the people who do rankings without doing projections.I think the reason is that when you sit down and do projections, you end up having to give Vick credit for about 600 rushing yards and a handfull of rushing TDs.In scoring systems where rushing yards are worth 2.5x passing yards, this is huge. It's like adding another 1800 passing yards to his total, turning a 2700-yard passer into a 4500-yard passer. It works out to quite a few fantasy points when you do the math.The obvious question is why he only finished as the #12 and #10 QB in the last two years. (He was #3 in 2003.) The answer is that he attempted only 321 and 387 passes, respectively. The Falcons run-pass ratio has been off the charts high. So he's ended up with only 2300-2400 passing yards.But IMO those are anomalously low numbers. It's hard not to project him for more passing yards than that if he starts the whole season, even if you still project him to get way fewer passing yards than any other starting QB.

I've found this to be true as well. I've also noticed Vick's ranking depends heavily on scoring system.Under the standard FBG scoring system, he's my number 4 QB. In my regular league with 6 point passing TDs, he's 10. And really the differences aren't big either way, which is why people really shouldn't gawk about how shocking it is that he's #2. There's Manning, then everyone else in a big bunch this year.

 

[switz]

Let me hear your thoughts!

LINK: http://www.phenomsff.com/projections/index.html

If Antonio Bryant is healthy, and still gets less than 850 yards, I'll be EXTREMELY surprised!!

 

[Spartans Rule]

My overall thoughts:

I agree with most of the unusual QB projections. I like Brooks and Vick too.

I disagree about Mike Bell. Tatum still got 173 carries last year with Mike Anderson over him. I have no reason to think Mike Bell is going to take a higher % of the workload.

I actually think Tatum is the guy to draft right now. Mike Bell could easily flounder and obviously Dayne wasn't doing a whole lot for Shanahan as he got replaced by the rook. Even though Shanny doesn't seem to want to use Tatum in a full-time role, I could see him getting up to the 240 carry range just by default.

I semi-agree on Reggie Bush. I think he can render Deuce somewhat obsolete, although the current 295/75 split is too drastic. I went with 240/135 on carries in favor of Reggie.

I like the Chester Taylor enthusiasm. I may need to ratchet him up in my rankings a little more.

I would have had a tough time giving Portis 17 TDs pre-injury and pre-Duckett. Now.... no way.

I'm not sure how Marvin Harrison's going to get back up to 1400 yards when he's been in the 1100s the past two years and is only getting older.

I like the high Roy Williams ranking, but I'm a Lions homer so maybe that's why.

A lot of TEs seem over-projected. I have a much bigger separation between Gates and the pack.

 

[Badm]

Thanks for sharing. Can you explain your reasoning behind Mike Vick as QB #2? Its an interesting call to say the least, but one that intrigues me.

Something I've noticed myself is that the people who've done projections tend to rate Vick higher than the people who do rankings without doing projections.I think the reason is that when you sit down and do projections, you end up having to give Vick credit for about 600 rushing yards and a handfull of rushing TDs.In scoring systems where rushing yards are worth 2.5x passing yards, this is huge. It's like adding another 1800 passing yards to his total, turning a 2700-yard passer into a 4500-yard passer. It works out to quite a few fantasy points when you do the math.The obvious question is why he only finished as the #12 and #10 QB in the last two years. (He was #3 in 2003.) The answer is that he attempted only 321 and 387 passes, respectively. The Falcons run-pass ratio has been off the charts high. So he's ended up with only 2300-2400 passing yards.But IMO those are anomalously low numbers. It's hard not to project him for more passing yards than that if he starts the whole season, even if you still project him to get way fewer passing yards than any other starting QB.

I've found this to be true as well. I've also noticed Vick's ranking depends heavily on scoring system.Under the standard FBG scoring system, he's my number 4 QB. In my regular league with 6 point passing TDs, he's 10. And really the differences aren't big either way, which is why people really shouldn't gawk about how shocking it is that he's #2. There's Manning, then everyone else in a big bunch this year.

Scoring system owns Vick. In our leage, additional points are given for rushing attempts and rushing yardage is premium to passing yards. Our scoring system is such, because if the man can handle the beating, you should be rewarded for it. These guys get injured more often so there is a gambleBack to Vick, in our league scoring last year, he was #1#1 Vick 296 points#2 Palmer 238 points

 

[Biabreakable]

Some pretty good work here by Unlucky.