This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!
there are sites that will do that for you. (play with play money) not sure what they are though
Put everything into FAZ around 2PM tomorrow....that about sums it up.
If you still like PRGN check out ULTR. Nice balance sheet with over 100 million in cash. They don't have as many big vessels as PRGN but you get some Brazil oil/gas exposure. (more tonnage then prgn however) GS owns 2.0%. Tight float.
It's really not about individual stocks in this rally. The correlation between all the high beta sectors is incredible.
That sector has seen way bigger gains over the last 30-60 days than the dry shippers though. I got to think that the dry shippers have more upside.
What sector is that? What huge run up? (relative of course) I think ULTR is cheaper then PRGN with a better balance sheet.(I Like companies that have contracts with PETROBRAS) ULTR does dry bulk but they also have a coastline oil/gas transport business. I like their cash on hand. What don't you like about the stock? (I'm not all in but like the company)
Their market cap is only at $118 million, yet they have $100 million in cash?
Good luck! I think we are in for a nice ride here. My 15,000 shares at 3.58 is looking rather juicy at the moment.
I was tracking this sector all year waiting for this timeframe. Many people believe that you will see the economy first moving in this sector. And that makes sense. If Dry goods like iron ore are moving then the global economy must be improving. Last year the BDI hit it's peak in May/June timeframe. Look at the curves from a longview (1 year timeframe) on all of these companies. They are all starting to look like parabolas heading back up. We have had months of head fakes, reverses, etc. I think Paragon has positioned themselves brilliantly here in this sector too. They cut their dividend to stockpile cash. They got authority to raise cash by adding 10M shares. They gave themselves the ability to buy back shares this year as well (up to $10M worth). They restructured their debt so it's just 10-15 Million owed per quarter. They have 98% of their ship time already locked down for this year at good prices. And now with the BDI and stock price moving up, they will soon have a ridiculous cash horde on their books to get more ships and to fill out 2010 (currently at 55% sold).This is an outstanding run company that really gets it. It's PE even after this "run up" is under 2.0 (Not really true because they are likely diluting a lot of shares as we speak, but their counterparts in this industry have PEs around 6-7). This is a rocketship folks and I think it's just getting underway. If you believe the global economy is getting out of this mess like I do, you want to be in some of the Dry Shippers. They are going to be the market leaders for the next months.
The sector I was referring to was the oil and gas transport sector (as opposed to dry bulk transport). I was just looking at ULTR and some of its peers CKH, ONAV, etc.) that are in that sector and I noticed that they performed significantly better than the dry bulk sector over the last few months. My thinking is that they are less dependent upon an economic recovery than the dry bulk shippers, and therefore have a more limited upside.It's still a good sector and I'm sure there are some very good stocks out there that will perform well. If you see some other stocks in that sector that are worthwhile, let us know so we can check them out.
Is it still better to wait and buy PRGN at the end of the day?
That's been the recent trend. You have to wait for a point in time when the guy purchasing for Paragon takes a break. There are usually a few dips each day. I have set a buy for 10,000 more shares at 3.80 here. It almost tripped early, but now it's back way above that.43 minutes into the trading day and PRGN already has insane volume (319K). I love that this share dilution and stock rebuy stuff is going on so aggressively here.
3.80 it is. :(
Hi five, brother. I bought at 6.30.
Mine triggered too @ 3.80. All-in on Paragon. Minus when I have been holding in OIL.
Can you please make it go UP instead of DOWN here? Kthx.
If you don't have the stomach for this, get out now.
Are you holding through the stress tests, GB?
What I do shouldn't affect you.
I read they are expected to pay .50 dividend within the next two weeks, any truth to this?
The dividend is down to 5 cents. Yes if you hold through earnings you will get this. So our downside is just $3.75/share max. That alone guarantees I can't lose everything with this play.Cavalier said:
They will report earnings mid/late June. Their ex-div date will be about the same time.
I missed the getting more shares on the dip because I got a little greedy...wish I had more now for sure.
I think there will be another bad inventory report either this week or next, but that oil will still likely head higher because the economy is improving, tensions in Pakistan are increasing, and we are getting closer to the summer driving season. I think the easy gains from trading oil have mostly vanished though. When oil was at $38-42, it was obvious it would move up. Now at $54 and huge surplus it seems to move up and down more randomly.
As everyone has witnessed, I am all about patience in the market...holding until at least $4.50 here though
Holy crap you're in for a lot.
Yes they are both diluting and buying shares right now (actually might have stopped diluting for now). When the next earnings report comes out, you are going to see that they raised $15 Million and shockingly also own a TON more of their own stock at 3.40-3.70. With the extra cash and great earnings, this thing vaults to $5-$6 where they dilute the rest of the shares. I also think somehow JPMorgan is involved in this too.My conspiracy goes like this:1. PRGN restructures debt last quarter and slashes dividend. The market responds pushing PRGN higher initially (stock jumped over $4 initially before crashing).2. With the stock high, PRGN starts diluting shares trying to get as many as 10 million new shares quickly into the marketplace.3. This holds back the stock and it lags significantly the other Dry Shippers like DRYS, EXM, GNK, etc that have similar ship types (Panamex).4. With the stock very repressed and PRGN sitting on lots of cash from dilution, they add shares as part of their company buy-back. This is the craziness we are witnessing the last 3-5 days here.5. As the stock surges, more people look to see what is up. And what they find is a well-run company that's stock is seriously under-valued. Investors ride the wave up too pushing volume through the roof.6. But because PRGN knows fair value of their stock is in the $5-6 range, they just keep buying.and then I also think there is a slight chance this is happening:JP Morgan wants into the sector (was announced about 10 days ago) and is looking to invest heavily with the Dry Shipping companies. I think there might already be a big backdoor deal with JP Morgan to get PRGN even more money and we see a wave of ship buying/building going on with this company with the additional revenue generated. It's clear with 98% charters already sold for this company that this team can and should be managing more ships. In my opinion the stock is moving so quickly because Paragon is trying to buy back a ton of shares for themselves before this big announcement is made. Because they will have to divulge shares, cash positions, etc this is all happening before earnings. Limited days (Earnings should be in the middle of June) to make a lot of noise here. It would not shock me to hear an announcement where JP Morgan has made a $75-100M investment in to PRGN for a portion of their company. In return, JP Morgan pays off PRGNs debt and takes that business for themself. PRGN then starts adding to their FLEET and they become one of the bigger players in this sector.
7. Which causes the share price to shoot up to $350 a share, and we buy FBG island and retire.
I will be very pleased if I get out at $6/share7. Which causes the share price to shoot up to $350 a share, and we buy FBG island and retire.
No one knows for sure. They haven't said. The last quarter just came at the end of March, so I'd assume mid to late June, but nothing is official.
I do not believe it has been announced yet but should be around the middle of June
