My value pick in 2007 (1 Viewer)

[bostonfred]

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

When I look at this team, I see a team that was 11-5 two years ago. I see a team that was decent until they started Bruce Gradkowski, who they replaced with a former stud QB who showed he still has something in the tank last season. I see a head coach who likes veteran, mobile quarterbacks, who is paired up with the closest thing to Rich Gannon that he's seen since his Raiders days. I see a team that had offensive line issues, but who made improvements on them with Pettigout and Aaron Sears. I see a team that needed help on the defensive line, and got the best defensive player in the draft. In short, I see a team very similar to last year's New York Jets, who were coming off a year where Brooks Bollinger had stats that were about as miserable as Gradkowski's, and where everything that could have gone wrong did, but bounced back from 4-12 to 10-6.

I'm not projecting greatness here. But I think the Bucs should be at least 8-8, and if I had to choose between 9-7 and 7-9, I'd take 9-7.

The Bucs have been hovering around an O/U of 7 wins. I'd gladly take the over on this one. I'm not a huge Cadillac Williams fan, but I think this team will make big improvements, and I think Cadillac will do well in Bucs victories, so I think he's a solid value play.

I don't make these projections every year, but this year, I think the Bucs are a very underrated team.

 

[Sea Bass]

They are the worst 0-0 team of all time!

 

[Routilla]

I don't buy it.

 

[bigfalconsfan]

Bucs are looking at the first pick next year.

 

[Heinz 57]

Garcia is about to be reminded of Cleveland and Detroit real fast. Tampa was 4-12 last year, remember..

 

[bostonfred]

Garcia is about to be reminded of Cleveland and Detroit real fast. Tampa was 4-12 last year, remember..

Tampa's offensive line is leaps and bounds better than either of those teams.

 

[Penguin]

I could see them winning 8 games but it's far from a lock. What I like is their division schedule. I just looked at it really quick so I didn't take into account teams coming off of a bye, consecutive road games etc. but I think it's a semi-week division. New Orleans is for real, but you get them in Florida for one game. I think Atlanta's going to stink, so 1-1 should be the low end with a sweep possible. I'm not nearly as high on Carolina as others are, I see 1-1 here and with some luck a sweep could happen. In the end I see them at 3-3. I can see them going 5-5 out of Conference with possible home wins over Tennessee, Jacksonville, Arizona & Washington and possible road victories against Detroit & Houston. I think we're looking at 7-9 here most likely, looks like Vegas is right on. If I had to choose only over or under 8 wins I think I'd take the under.

 

[JaxBill]

Garcia is about to be reminded of Cleveland and Detroit real fast. Tampa was 4-12 last year, remember..

Tampa will be as good as their offensive line is. Garcia last year proved that he can play behind a good offensive line that will give him time to scan the field. Unfortunately, I don't think he'll have that luxury this year.

 

[David Yudkin]

Fantasy wise their record really doesn't matter. Even when they went 11-5 in 2005, they ranked 20th in points scored, 24th in passing yards, and 14th in rushing yards. They may do better than last year and some of their players are probably undervalued heading into the season, but I don't think they will turn into the 2000 Raiders.

 

[Dirk Digler]

Good call. I have 2 standing bets the bucs finish at or over .500 this year.

 

[SofaKings]

I'll wait for Cappy's analysis.

 

[Evilgrin 72]

I totally agree. I think the Bucs are going to be MUCH better than last year. Could easily see them doubling (at least) their win total.

 

[The Duff Man]

I am on board with this too. I had the misfortune to watch a few of their games last year and there were several instances where a reciever was WIDE open down the field for an easy 6 and Grad missed him. It is amazing what a little better line and a little better QB play can do for you.

 

[AB in DC]

You beat me to the punch. I agree 100%.

 

[agent 86]

I'm still "on the fence" on the Bucs as a team in '07, but Caddy will be a very good value regardless. Just having a decent QB, an improved line, better overall health, and staying in the game on 3rd downs will make him an excellent "match-up" play early, and a possible every-week start down the road IMO.

 

[AB in DC]

Garcia is about to be reminded of Cleveland and Detroit real fast. Tampa was 4-12 last year, remember..

Say what you want about Garcia, but he's light years better than Gradkowski. The only reason they had 12 losses last year was the utter void at the QB position.

 

[off]

The Bucs should do better, but 8-8 might be a stretch.

 

[corpcow]

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers. When I look at this team, I see a team that was 11-5 two years ago. I see a team that was decent until they started Bruce Gradkowski, who they replaced with a former stud QB who showed he still has something in the tank last season. I see a head coach who likes veteran, mobile quarterbacks, who is paired up with the closest thing to Rich Gannon that he's seen since his Raiders days. I see a team that had offensive line issues, but who made improvements on them with Pettigout and Aaron Sears. I see a team that needed help on the defensive line, and got the best defensive player in the draft. In short, I see a team very similar to last year's New York Jets, who were coming off a year where Brooks Bollinger had stats that were about as miserable as Gradkowski's, and where everything that could have gone wrong did, but bounced back from 4-12 to 10-6. I'm not projecting greatness here. But I think the Bucs should be at least 8-8, and if I had to choose between 9-7 and 7-9, I'd take 9-7. The Bucs have been hovering around an O/U of 7 wins. I'd gladly take the over on this one. I'm not a huge Cadillac Williams fan, but I think this team will make big improvements, and I think Cadillac will do well in Bucs victories, so I think he's a solid value play. I don't make these projections every year, but this year, I think the Bucs are a very underrated team.

Really? I see this team as a I'm not sold on Garcia at all. I think he caught lightning in a bottle last year in a good situation. I'm thinking this is more a Browns-era Garcia, but that's just me. If you're talking about Luke McCown being a potential starter, I can't see a 9-7 season. That's just me.

 

[-Crippler-]

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

When I look at this team, I see a team that was 11-5 two years ago. I see a team that was decent until they started Bruce Gradkowski, who they replaced with a former stud QB who showed he still has something in the tank last season. I see a head coach who likes veteran, mobile quarterbacks, who is paired up with the closest thing to Rich Gannon that he's seen since his Raiders days. I see a team that had offensive line issues, but who made improvements on them with Pettigout and Aaron Sears. I see a team that needed help on the defensive line, and got the best defensive player in the draft. In short, I see a team very similar to last year's New York Jets, who were coming off a year where Brooks Bollinger had stats that were about as miserable as Gradkowski's, and where everything that could have gone wrong did, but bounced back from 4-12 to 10-6.

Why am I the only one who seems to understand this? Jeff Garcia is NOT a good quarterback. He was in a great system on a great offense last season. Take that away (which is what happened when he went to TB) and he will dissappoint more than any other QB that I can think of this season. Without Philly, Garcia is a total bust.

 

[Black Box]

I also agree. Even thought I think they overachieved two years ago when they made the playoffs, they underachieved last year due to the reasons the OP cited.

Throw in a division rival (the Falcons) on the brink of implosion...

A rebound seems likely to me as well.

 

[corpcow]

If I were a betting man, I would choose the Raiders or Lions over the Bucs as most likely to go from worst to contending.

 

[s_ezy]

Garcia was awful when he didn't have a line to protect him. (cleveland and detroit)

When he had a line to protect him he did well. (philly and 49ers)

TBs line is above average so he should have a good year.

 

[wildbill]

Garcia was awful when he didn't have a line to protect him. (cleveland and detroit)

When he had a line to protect him he did well. (philly and 49ers)

TBs line is above average so he should have a good year.

Is this just your opinion, or is it shared by others?

 

[JaxBill]

Garcia was awful when he didn't have a line to protect him. (cleveland and detroit)

When he had a line to protect him he did well. (philly and 49ers)

TBs line is above average so he should have a good year.

Is this just your opinion, or is it shared by others?

This gets back to my post above about the Bucs going as far as the OL. The left side of the line is new with former Giant Luke Pettitgout and rookie Arron Sears. Can Pettitgout's back hold out? Can the rookie adjust to the NFL?

 

[Jason Wood]

Garcia was awful when he didn't have a line to protect him. (cleveland and detroit)

When he had a line to protect him he did well. (philly and 49ers)

TBs line is above average so he should have a good year.

Is this just your opinion, or is it shared by others?

This gets back to my post above about the Bucs going as far as the OL. The left side of the line is new with former Giant Luke Pettitgout and rookie Arron Sears. Can Pettitgout's back hold out? Can the rookie adjust to the NFL?

Petitgout has missed a few days in a row, and I think the Giants letting him go with only David Diehl in his place also speaks volumes. Offensive lines aren't just about talent, but also cohesion and at best the Bucs will have a more talented front five but they won't have worked together for long. I can't disparage Garcia, he played really well last year in Philly, but don't forget that Philly has one of the best (and cohesive) pass blocking lines in the NFL and Garcia had a ton of time to throw. The two big question marks are: Caddy Williams (last year was ABYSMAL) and the defense. My prediction: 7-9

 

[kensat30]

Joey Galloway = value

 

[Enraged Nerfball]

I'v mentioned in several other threads that I think folks are underestimating the OL of the Bucs. They have made dramatic improvements in youth, strength and toughness in Davin Joseph, Jeremy Trueblood and Aaron Sears. Pettitgout brings skill and experience without the age/mileage baggage of FA past (see Derrick Deese, Lomas Brown etc...). They are a group maturing together and IMO will have significant positive impact on Caddy's performance this year.

 

[AB in DC]

Why am I the only one who seems to understand this? Jeff Garcia is NOT a good quarterback. He was in a great system on a great offense last season.

If I'm not mistaken, Gruden runs a West Cost Offense very similar to Philly's system.Cleveland and Detroit did not.

 

[AB in DC]

The two big question marks are: Caddy Williams (last year was ABYSMAL) and the defense.

Caddy was abysmal because there was no passing threat to keep the defenses honest, and the OL was terrible.The line looks a lot better this year (though above-average would be a stretch), and Garcia >> Gradkowski.I agree that defense is an issue - this is not the late '90s, early '00s Buccaneer defense. I'm actually starting to wonder if this may finally be a year when the Tampa O is better than their D.

 

[Enraged Nerfball]

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

When I look at this team, I see a team that was 11-5 two years ago. I see a team that was decent until they started Bruce Gradkowski, who they replaced with a former stud QB who showed he still has something in the tank last season. I see a head coach who likes veteran, mobile quarterbacks, who is paired up with the closest thing to Rich Gannon that he's seen since his Raiders days. I see a team that had offensive line issues, but who made improvements on them with Pettigout and Aaron Sears. I see a team that needed help on the defensive line, and got the best defensive player in the draft. In short, I see a team very similar to last year's New York Jets, who were coming off a year where Brooks Bollinger had stats that were about as miserable as Gradkowski's, and where everything that could have gone wrong did, but bounced back from 4-12 to 10-6.

Why am I the only one who seems to understand this? Jeff Garcia is NOT a good quarterback. He was in a great system on a great offense last season. Take that away (which is what happened when he went to TB) and he will dissappoint more than any other QB that I can think of this season. Without Philly, Garcia is a total bust.

Hmm interesting. So why would Philly (or any team like Philly) want to invest money in a Pro Bowl caliber QB if they could generate similar results with a slug like Garcia? Buy the way I'm assuming you meant Garcia is not a good QB now, because his stats (especially in SF) say otherwise.

 

[bostonfred]

I'v mentioned in several other threads that I think folks are underestimating the OL of the Bucs. They have made dramatic improvements in youth, strength and toughness in Davin Joseph, Jeremy Trueblood and Aaron Sears. Pettitgout brings skill and experience without the age/mileage baggage of FA past (see Derrick Deese, Lomas Brown etc...). They are a group maturing together and IMO will have significant positive impact on Caddy's performance this year.

I agree. I don't expect them to be a top 5 line or anything, but I think they made a big improvement this offseason. As for Garcia, I agree that he's nowhere near as good as he used to be. But he doesn't have to be very good to be a lot better than Gradkowski was last year. The difference between Bollinger and Pennington is probably bigger than the difference between Gradkowski and Garcia, but not by much. Garcia's a great fit for their O. And the Bucs made more visible improvements to the team than the Jets did last year. I think it's reasonable to expect them to make an improvement like the Jets did, even if I'm not predicting 10-6 like the Jets got. Last but not least, from a fantasy perspective, the only player I think is positively affected by this is Cadillac. Cadillac performed pretty well in wins as a rookie, and in their rare wins last year. His rookie season, he averaged 23 carries for 102 yards per game in wins, vs. 14 carries for 40 yards in losses. Last year, he averaged 23 carries for 99 yards per game in wins, vs. 14 carries for 48 yards per game in losses. If the Bucs make an improvement, you should expect him to make an improvement.