My yearly MLB bet-bump for 2011 (1 Viewer)

[St. Louis Bob]

Who will be much better or much worse compared to last year.

Last Years Standings

I hear the a lot about the Mets (83), Toronto (80) & Texas (79)being better.

I haven't heard much about any team being much worse off.

ETA

I'm looking for teams that will be much different than the previous year, say 12%.

 

[einstein2u]

astros will do worst.

maybe come in third place in that divison.

 

[Limp Ditka]

Dodgers - Better, much better. Rotation is stellar, Frucal a true leadoff hitter, Can JD Drew stay healthy?

Indians - Worse. Even though he didn't tally a bunch of wins, the loss of Millwood will be big.

 

[BroadwayG]

Brewers will be mucho betta

 

[Darth Cheney]

Yankees

RedSox

Toronto

Baltimore

Tampa Bay

Atlanta

Philadelphia

Florida

San Diego

Dodgers

St. Louis

Houston

 

[St. Louis Bob]

Brewers will be mucho betta

I really liked the Brewers last year.Too bad for them that they are in such a tough division.

 

[RoxSolid]

kinda like the twins to improve on last year

think lirano will be a stud when he breaks into that rotation, also santana

luis castillo fills a terrible hole from the past few years at 2b and torii hunter healthy will be a key and the maturity of mauer......should compete with white sox in my eyes

 

[St. Louis Bob]

Dodgers - Better, much better. Rotation is stellar, Frucal a true leadoff hitter, Can JD Drew stay healthy?

Indians - Worse. Even though he didn't tally a bunch of wins, the loss of Millwood will be big.

Thanks, I appreciate the little extra info. I don't get to watch a whole lot of AL games. JD Drew is so frustrating.

 

[St. Louis Bob]

Yankees

RedSox

Toronto

Baltimore

Tampa Bay

Atlanta

Philadelphia

Florida

San Diego

Dodgers

St. Louis

Houston

Why do you think TB will be better?I need to edit the orginal post, I'm looking for a 12% or higher swing either way from last year.

 

[Spiderman]

I expect the White Sox to be as good, if not better than last season, obviously, if healthy.

They have 5 starting pitchers (Buerhle, Contreras, Garland, Garica and Vacquez) who should go 200 IP+, and added a healthy Thome to the lineup. The depth of the offense is really nice as well - Rob Mackoviak, Alex Cintron, Pablo Ozuna will keep the starters fresh.

Only question, and it's legitimate, is the bullpen - Bobby Jenks is fat right now, and Dustin Hermanson could be done, so added pressure on Neil Cotts, Cliff Politte and Brandon McCarthy could make the bullpen a question mark.

Overall this team, with the excellent starting rotation, and improved offense should be a top team in MLB once again.

 

[Green94]

The Cubs will finish in 4th place - no joke.

 

[Darth Cheney]

Yankees 

RedSox 

Toronto 

Baltimore 

Tampa Bay 

Atlanta 

Philadelphia 

Florida 

San Diego 

Dodgers 

St. Louis 

Houston 

Why do you think TB will be better?I need to edit the orginal post, I'm looking for a 12% or higher swing either way from last year.

I think that they have young talent that could improve their record by 6 to 10 games. I also think that the Sox and Yankees could fall back 5 to 7 games each.

 

[wadegarrett]

Will be fun watching the Tribe, Sox and Twins battle for the Central this year.

Detroit and KC

 

[Green94]

Will be fun watching the Tribe, Sox and Twins battle for the Central this year.

Detroit and KC

 

[kupcho1]

I need to edit the orginal post, I'm looking for a 12% or higher swing either way from last year.

That would mean 75 wins for the Pirates this year. I think (don't quote me on this) that the over/under for wins is 78 (this is something I recall hearing, I can't look it up from work), so obviously someone sees some significant improvement from 67 wins last year.Let me know if I'm off on the o/u

 

[bialczabub]

Toronto (maybe not by 12%)

Baltimore

Tampa Bay

NY Mets (maybe not by 12%)

Florida

Houston

Oakland (not by 12%)

Cleveland

 

[[icon]]

Yankees

RedSox

Toronto

Baltimore

Tampa Bay

Atlanta

Philadelphia

Florida

San Diego

Dodgers

St. Louis

Houston

Why do you think TB will be better?I need to edit the orginal post, I'm looking for a 12% or higher swing either way from last year.

2nd half of 2005 season down?

 

[Softballguy]

Brewers will be mucho betta

 

[Capella]

]

Yankees 

RedSox 

Toronto 

Baltimore 

Tampa Bay 

Atlanta 

Philadelphia 

Florida 

San Diego 

Dodgers 

St. Louis 

Houston 

Why do you think TB will be better?I need to edit the orginal post, I'm looking for a 12% or higher swing either way from last year.

2nd half of 2005 season down?

Rays will be better than last year, but 12% is asking a bit much. Pitching won't be there to get them up close to 80 wins, imo.They're going to hit the hell out of the ball though.

 

[[icon]]

,Mar 29 2006, 09:51 AM]

Yankees

RedSox

Toronto

Baltimore

Tampa Bay

Atlanta

Philadelphia

Florida

San Diego

Dodgers

St. Louis

Houston

Why do you think TB will be better?I need to edit the orginal post, I'm looking for a 12% or higher swing either way from last year.

2nd half of 2005 season down?

Rays will be better than last year, but 12% is asking a bit much. Pitching won't be there to get them up close to 80 wins, imo.They're going to hit the hell out of the ball though.

I agree 12% might be pushing it but I wouldn't be surprised at ALL to see TB win 80 games this year... 72-75 should be all but a lock IMHO. You guys have a good up and coming squad.

 

[Capella]

]

,Mar 29 2006, 09:51 AM]

Yankees 

RedSox 

Toronto 

Baltimore 

Tampa Bay 

Atlanta 

Philadelphia 

Florida 

San Diego 

Dodgers 

St. Louis 

Houston 

Why do you think TB will be better?I need to edit the orginal post, I'm looking for a 12% or higher swing either way from last year.

2nd half of 2005 season down?

Rays will be better than last year, but 12% is asking a bit much. Pitching won't be there to get them up close to 80 wins, imo.They're going to hit the hell out of the ball though.

I agree 12% might be pushing it but I wouldn't be surprised at ALL to see TB win 80 games this year... 72-75 should be all but a lock IMHO. You guys have a good up and coming squad.

We'll see. I'd be pretty excited if they were in another division; as it is, they'll struggle to get 4th place.

07 should be good. Young and Upton will be up with the team, and some of the younger arms will be there to help the rotation.

 

[Lowly Clerk]

the Dodgers won 71 last year i think 85-88 wins would be about right this year. I like the offseasons moves (Furcal,Nomar). Like all teams they need to stay healthy. If Gagne Nomar and JD Drew have average years this will be a good team. The fact that the rest of the NL west blows helps too.

 

[avoiding injuries]

Nationals played out of their cleat's last year. Also won too many 1-2 run games. I can see the ball not bouncing their way again this year and dropping 12%.

 

[avoiding injuries]

I've seen the and the for the Oriole's. I see them finishing about the same around .500. Pitching is a year older and more experienced but I'm not sure if Chris Ray can replace BJ Ryan. Sosa was a complete hole in the clean-up spot last year. The Raphy distraction shouldn't be an issue and they got the pitching coach from the Braves. I think there is more upside to this team, but they did have a great first half last year.

spelling

 

[bialczabub]

Nationals played out of their cleat's last year. Also won too many 1-2 run games. I can see the ball not bouncing their way again this year and dropping 12%.

good point.

 

[bialczabub]

I've seen the    and the    for the Oriole's.  I see them finishing about the same around .500.  Pitching is a year older and more experienced but I'm not sure if Chris Ray can replace BJ Ryan.  Sosa was a complete hole in the clean-up spot last year.  The Raphy distraction shouldn't be an issue and they got the pitching coach from the Braves.  I think their is more upside to this team, but they did have a great first half last year.

Talk about playing out of their cleats, the Orioles first half last year was insane. Their pitchers all had sub-3 ERAs or something. Brian Roberts was playing like he was A-Rod.I think they lose a lot with age (Mora, Tejada) and the loss of Ryan. The Palmeiro distraction was overrated. The team's just not that good, and IMO, every other team in their division has arguably improved (with the Yankees and Red Sox having too many question marks to make that statement definitively)

 

[Lowly Clerk]

You would have to believe that the Mariners would be a .500 team so that would get 12 more wins this year. Beltre,Sexton and Ichiro and the addition of Kohjima should be a good lineup. Felix Hernandez looks like the real deal.

 

[avoiding injuries]

I think they lose a lot with age (Mora, Tejada) and the loss of Ryan. The Palmeiro distraction was overrated.

I'll give you age with Mora since he turned 34 this off-season. He still a potential all-star. Tejada is still 29 until May. Lopez(35) was old behind the plate, but they brought Hernandez(29) and moved Lopez to first. Sosa and Palmeiro were two of the oldest, and they're both gone. Their starting pitching is very young and just got the best pitching coach in the game to work with them. I don't think the Palmeiro distraction was overrated at all. If anything, I think a lid was put on the whole thing. Not to mention he blamed the team leader for supplying him. It seems the drastic change in play came about the same time Palmeiro found out he had tested positive. Could have ruptured the clubhouse(total speculation)

Please excuse me for being a complete homer. This is the only time of year we have a chance.

 

[Bottomfeeder Sports]

I need to edit the orginal post, I'm looking for a 12% or higher swing either way from last year.

As in -

 American League          2005Eastern              W          L             Pct        W+12           L          Pct          W-12           L          Pct  y-NY Yankees       95          67          0.586         114          48          0.704          75          87          0.463 x-Boston           95          67          0.586         114          48          0.704          75          87          0.463 Toronto            80          82          0.494          99          63          0.611          61         101          0.377 Baltimore          74          88          0.457          93          69          0.574          55         107          0.34 Tampa Bay          67          95          0.414          87          75          0.537          48         114          0.296 Central             W          L             Pct        W+12           L          Pct          W-12           L          Pct y-Chi White Sox    99          63          0.611         118          44          0.728          80          82          0.494 Cleveland          93          69          0.574         112          50          0.691          74          88          0.457 Minnesota          83          79          0.512         102          60          0.63           64          98          0.395 Detroit            71          91          0.438          90          72          0.556          52         110          0.321 Kansas City        56         106          0.346          75          87          0.463          37         125          0.228 West                W          L             Pct        W+12           L          Pct          W-12           L          Pct y-LA Angels        95          67          0.586         114          48          0.704          75          87          0.463 Oakland            88          74          0.543         107          55          0.66           69          93          0.426 Texas              79          83          0.488          98          64          0.605          60         102          0.37 Seattle            69          93          0.426          88          74          0.543          50         112          0.309          National League          2005 East                W          L             Pct        W+12           L          Pct          W-12           L          Pct y-Atlanta          90          72          0.556         110          52          0.679          71          91          0.438 Philadelphia       88          74          0.543         107          55          0.66           69          93          0.426 Florida            83          79          0.512         102          60          0.63           64          98          0.395 NY Mets            83          79          0.512         102          60          0.63           64          98          0.395 Washington         81          81          0.5           100          62          0.617          62         100          0.383 Central             W          L             Pct        W+12           L          Pct          W-12           L          Pct y-St. Louis       100          62          0.617         119          43          0.735          81          81          0.5 x-Houston          89          73          0.549         108          54          0.667          69          93          0.426 Milwaukee          81          81          0.5           100          62          0.617          62         100          0.383 Chi Cubs           79          83          0.488          98          64          0.605          60         102          0.37 Cincinnati         73          89          0.451          93          69          0.574          54         108          0.333 Pittsburgh         67          95          0.414          87          75          0.537          48         114          0.296 West                W          L             Pct        W+12           L          Pct          W-12           L          Pct y-San Diego        82          80          0.506         101          61          0.623          63          99          0.389 Arizona            77          85          0.475          96          66          0.593          58         104          0.358 San Francisco      75          87          0.463          94          68          0.58           56         106          0.346 LA Dodgers         71          91          0.438          90          72          0.556          52         110          0.321 Colorado           67          95          0.414          87          75          0.537          48         114          0.296

 

[Tony Jabroni]

Brewers will be mucho betta

The city is really buzzing about this year's prospects. I can't wait for the season to start!

 

[wadegarrett]

Indians - Worse. Even though he didn't tally a bunch of wins, the loss of Millwood will be big.

Cleveland

Indians were a MLB-worst 22-36 in one-run games last year and they still won 93 games. If they can improve on that by going just .500 in one-run games, it wouldn't surprise me to see them around 88-92 wins.

 

[Capella]

Detroit, Seattle, the Mutts and the Giants all look like good candidates to hit this magical 12% mark to me.

 

[bialczabub]

I think they lose a lot with age (Mora, Tejada) and the loss of Ryan.  The Palmeiro distraction was overrated. 

I'll give you age with Mora since he turned 34 this off-season. He still a potential all-star. Tejada is still 29 until May. Lopez(35) was old behind the plate, but they brought Hernandez(29) and moved Lopez to first. Sosa and Palmeiro were two of the oldest, and they're both gone. Their starting pitching is very young and just got the best pitching coach in the game to work with them. I don't think the Palmeiro distraction was overrated at all. If anything, I think a lid was put on the whole thing. Not to mention he blamed the team leader for supplying him. It seems the drastic change in play came about the same time Palmeiro found out he had tested positive. Could have ruptured the clubhouse(total speculation)

Please excuse me for being a complete homer. This is the only time of year we have a chance.

Mora had by far his worst season in 3 years last year. In the 40 some games he played last season, he didn't outperform Palmeiro by a great extent, although he was clearly better.Tejada, although still one of the games best, is on the decline from his peak power years. I'm not saying he won't be good, but that to expect him to do better than last year is a tall order.

Lopez might rebound whil eplaying 1st, but don't expect him to rebound to 2003-2004 levels.

Matos and Gibbons might very well improve, as they're hitting their peak power years. Roberts is too, but last year he was just phenomenal, you can't expect that to repeat itself, although the possibility is there.

Chen Bedard, and Cabrera might all be better this year, but with only Chen having a sub-4 ERA last year, I'm not sure that catapults them to many more wins.

Sosa was a waste last year.

 

[avoiding injuries]

All valid points which is why I was saying they would neither gain 12% nor lose it. I think they play right around .500 ball(probably just under it).

 

[St. Louis Bob]

Thanks guys.

I'm in a pool every year where you pick 6 teams to do better or worse than the previous year. It's $500 per team and last year paid out $10k.

That's where I pulled the 12% from Cappy.

 

[Northern Voice]

Jays should get to 90 wins (assuming Burnett and Halladay are relatively healthy). Of course they'll probably need 95 to make the playoffs...

Toronto was 16-31 last season in one run games and still won 80. Hopefully adding Ryan helps out there.

 

[avoiding injuries]

Thanks guys.

I'm in a pool every year where you pick 6 teams to do better or worse than the previous year. It's $500 per team and last year paid out $10k.

That's where I pulled the 12% from Cappy.

Well, who are you taking?

 

[Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll]

Nationals played out of their cleat's last year. Also won too many 1-2 run games. I can see the ball not bouncing their way again this year and dropping 12%.

 

[Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll]

I am going to pick a few for O/U win totals, and here is who I'm looking at:

A's O90

Chisox U91.5

Tribe O88.5

Rays O68

Interesting tidbit is that the A's total is 90 and the Angels are at 88, yet the Angels are favored to win the division (future book). They are also slightly favored over the A's to win the AL, and WS. There is either more money on the Angels (in all 3 categories), begetting less value, or the A's have a weaker schedule outside the division (haven't looked).

*a special thanks to Mr. P on the Tribe and Rays picks*

 

[Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll]

I expect the White Sox to be as good, if not better than last season, obviously, if healthy.

They have 5 starting pitchers (Buerhle, Contreras, Garland, Garica and Vacquez) who should go 200 IP+, and added a healthy Thome to the lineup. The depth of the offense is really nice as well - Rob Mackoviak, Alex Cintron, Pablo Ozuna will keep the starters fresh.

Only question, and it's legitimate, is the bullpen - Bobby Jenks is fat right now, and Dustin Hermanson could be done, so added pressure on Neil Cotts, Cliff Politte and Brandon McCarthy could make the bullpen a question mark.

Overall this team, with the excellent starting rotation, and improved offense should be a top team in MLB once again.

Teams like this typically don't repeat and are overvalued.

 

[Green94]

I expect the White Sox to be as good, if not better than last season, obviously, if healthy.

They have 5 starting pitchers (Buerhle, Contreras, Garland, Garica and Vacquez) who should go 200 IP+, and added a healthy Thome to the lineup. The depth of the offense is really nice as well - Rob Mackoviak, Alex Cintron, Pablo Ozuna will keep the starters fresh.

Only question, and it's legitimate, is the bullpen - Bobby Jenks is fat right now, and Dustin Hermanson could be done, so added pressure on Neil Cotts, Cliff Politte and Brandon McCarthy could make the bullpen a question mark.

Overall this team, with the excellent starting rotation, and improved offense should be a top team in MLB once again.

Teams like this typically don't repeat and are overvalued.

Repeating in Baseball is probably the hardest thing to do

 

[doctor Gunks]

I expect the White Sox to be as good, if not better than last season, obviously, if healthy.

They have 5 starting pitchers (Buerhle, Contreras, Garland, Garica and Vacquez) who should go 200 IP+, and added a healthy Thome to the lineup. The depth of the offense is really nice as well - Rob Mackoviak, Alex Cintron, Pablo Ozuna will keep the starters fresh.

Only question, and it's legitimate, is the bullpen - Bobby Jenks is fat right now, and Dustin Hermanson could be done, so added pressure on Neil Cotts, Cliff Politte and Brandon McCarthy could make the bullpen a question mark.

Overall this team, with the excellent starting rotation, and improved offense should be a top team in MLB once again.

Teams like this typically don't repeat and are overvalued.

Based on BP's pythagorean standings, the White Sox were one of the "luckiest" teams in baseball last year.

 

[Green94]

I expect the White Sox to be as good, if not better than last season, obviously, if healthy.

They have 5 starting pitchers (Buerhle, Contreras, Garland, Garica and Vacquez) who should go 200 IP+, and added a healthy Thome to the lineup. The depth of the offense is really nice as well - Rob Mackoviak, Alex Cintron, Pablo Ozuna will keep the starters fresh.

Only question, and it's legitimate, is the bullpen - Bobby Jenks is fat right now, and Dustin Hermanson could be done, so added pressure on Neil Cotts, Cliff Politte and Brandon McCarthy could make the bullpen a question mark.

Overall this team, with the excellent starting rotation, and improved offense should be a top team in MLB once again.

Teams like this typically don't repeat and are overvalued.

Based on BP's pythagorean standings, the White Sox were one of the "luckiest" teams in baseball last year.

Lucky or good, they were World Champs

 

[doctor Gunks]

I expect the White Sox to be as good, if not better than last season, obviously, if healthy.

They have 5 starting pitchers (Buerhle, Contreras, Garland, Garica and Vacquez) who should go 200 IP+, and added a healthy Thome to the lineup. The depth of the offense is really nice as well - Rob Mackoviak, Alex Cintron, Pablo Ozuna will keep the starters fresh.

Only question, and it's legitimate, is the bullpen - Bobby Jenks is fat right now, and Dustin Hermanson could be done, so added pressure on Neil Cotts, Cliff Politte and Brandon McCarthy could make the bullpen a question mark.

Overall this team, with the excellent starting rotation, and improved offense should be a top team in MLB once again.

Teams like this typically don't repeat and are overvalued.

Based on BP's pythagorean standings, the White Sox were one of the "luckiest" teams in baseball last year.

Lucky or good, they were World Champs

Both.Here are BP's Adjusted Standings. link

 

[Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll]

I expect the White Sox to be as good, if not better than last season, obviously, if healthy.

They have 5 starting pitchers (Buerhle, Contreras, Garland, Garica and Vacquez) who should go 200 IP+, and added a healthy Thome to the lineup. The depth of the offense is really nice as well - Rob Mackoviak, Alex Cintron, Pablo Ozuna will keep the starters fresh.

Only question, and it's legitimate, is the bullpen - Bobby Jenks is fat right now, and Dustin Hermanson could be done, so added pressure on Neil Cotts, Cliff Politte and Brandon McCarthy could make the bullpen a question mark.

Overall this team, with the excellent starting rotation, and improved offense should be a top team in MLB once again.

Teams like this typically don't repeat and are overvalued.

Based on BP's pythagorean standings, the White Sox were one of the "luckiest" teams in baseball last year.

Lucky or good, they were World Champs

I believe the topic pertains to the future, not the past.

 

[Green94]

I expect the White Sox to be as good, if not better than last season, obviously, if healthy.

They have 5 starting pitchers (Buerhle, Contreras, Garland, Garica and Vacquez) who should go 200 IP+, and added a healthy Thome to the lineup. The depth of the offense is really nice as well - Rob Mackoviak, Alex Cintron, Pablo Ozuna will keep the starters fresh.

Only question, and it's legitimate, is the bullpen - Bobby Jenks is fat right now, and Dustin Hermanson could be done, so added pressure on Neil Cotts, Cliff Politte and Brandon McCarthy could make the bullpen a question mark.

Overall this team, with the excellent starting rotation, and improved offense should be a top team in MLB once again.

Teams like this typically don't repeat and are overvalued.

Based on BP's pythagorean standings, the White Sox were one of the "luckiest" teams in baseball last year.

Lucky or good, they were World Champs

I believe the topic pertains to the future, not the past.

Did you bet any NBA tonight?

 

[Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll]

"Did you bet any NBA tonight"

Hell no. There won't be much wagering from me for awhile. Baseball takes too much time, hoops is a total joke, and a break is good for ya.

 

[Green94]

"Did you bet any NBA tonight"

Hell no. There won't be much wagering from me for awhile. Baseball takes too much time, hoops is a total joke, and a break is good for ya.

I hear ya

 

[Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll]

"Did you bet any NBA tonight"

Hell no.  There won't be much wagering from me for awhile.  Baseball takes too much time, hoops is a total joke, and a break is good for ya. 

I hear ya

Okay, I did take the over 5.5 in the Kings/Flames tilt because Hoard was on it , but really, there won't be much more for me after the next three hoops games.

 

[Green94]

"Did you bet any NBA tonight"

Hell no. There won't be much wagering from me for awhile. Baseball takes too much time, hoops is a total joke, and a break is good for ya.

I hear ya

Okay, I did take the over 5.5 in the Kings/Flames tilt because Hoard was on it , but really, there won't be much more for me after the next three hoops games.

I'm on the Det/Philly over tonight.

Who do you have for the weekend? Are you going to keep riding UCLA?