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Name the last 5 Rookie RBs that displaced the vet (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter JAA
- Start date
Team Legacy
Footballguy
A simple Marcel Shipp search from last year's discussion would net this discussion.
http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...dpost&p=2978378
http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...dpost&p=2978378
In the past two years, the following has happened:
Ronnie Brown took the MIA job from incumbents Morris & Minor.
Cadillac Williams took the TB job from incumbent Pittman.
JJ Arrington took the AZ starting job from Shipp (though he gave it back pretty quickly in the regular season).
Kevin Jones took the DET starting gig from incumbent Bryson.
Add Portis & that makes 5 in very recent history.
I guess it happens more often than you think, JAA.
Ronnie Brown took the MIA job from incumbents Morris & Minor.
Cadillac Williams took the TB job from incumbent Pittman.
JJ Arrington took the AZ starting job from Shipp (though he gave it back pretty quickly in the regular season).
Kevin Jones took the DET starting gig from incumbent Bryson.
Add Portis & that makes 5 in very recent history.
I guess it happens more often than you think, JAA.
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Doug B
Footballguy
Terrel Davis himself would qualify, right? Wish I had some fantasy mags from 1995 ... who were the Broncos banking on? Derek Loville or somebody like that?
As for Edgerrin James ... the Colts had traded away Marshall Faulk ... so the Indy tailback spot was more or less vacant.
As for Edgerrin James ... the Colts had traded away Marshall Faulk ... so the Indy tailback spot was more or less vacant.
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
Stewart was the Starter and had 2 decent games then torn his ACL. That's when Fred took over.
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KnowledgeReignsSupreme
Footballguy
In addition to the others listed.
Jamal Lewis.
Jamal Lewis.
CA_7
Footballguy
Great thread
LT2
Replaced Terrell Fletcher who never ran for more than 550/5 (back in 1998) in his career. Year before LT, Fletcher and Jermaine Fazande ran for about 360 yards each.
Caddy
Michael Pittman, 30 years old and history of problems (suspensions). Was also sutied as more of a 3rd back becuse of receiving abilities.
Ronnie Brown
Started by deafult because of Ricky's suspension and afterward was pretty much RBBC the rest of the season
Kevin Jones
Displaced Shawn Bryson who had never rused for more then 610 and and 3 TDs in his career.
Julius Jones
Displaced Eddie George who was in the twilight of his career
William Green
Replaced Jamel White who never even rushed for 500 yards and 5 TDs in a single season
Travis Henry
As a rookie rushed for 729/4. Eventually replaced Bryson....
Jamal
Last time Terry Allen ran for over 900 yards was 1997. Jamal started in 2002, Allen was 32.
Based on this Maroney has the best situation IMO (Dillon starting to look like Eddie George circa 2004). Williams , Addai and White, while good fits for the teams drafting them, still have proven but often injured starters in front of them.
LT2
Replaced Terrell Fletcher who never ran for more than 550/5 (back in 1998) in his career. Year before LT, Fletcher and Jermaine Fazande ran for about 360 yards each.
Caddy
Michael Pittman, 30 years old and history of problems (suspensions). Was also sutied as more of a 3rd back becuse of receiving abilities.
Ronnie Brown
Started by deafult because of Ricky's suspension and afterward was pretty much RBBC the rest of the season
Kevin Jones
Displaced Shawn Bryson who had never rused for more then 610 and and 3 TDs in his career.
Julius Jones
Displaced Eddie George who was in the twilight of his career
William Green
Replaced Jamel White who never even rushed for 500 yards and 5 TDs in a single season
Travis Henry
As a rookie rushed for 729/4. Eventually replaced Bryson....
Jamal
Last time Terry Allen ran for over 900 yards was 1997. Jamal started in 2002, Allen was 32.
Based on this Maroney has the best situation IMO (Dillon starting to look like Eddie George circa 2004). Williams , Addai and White, while good fits for the teams drafting them, still have proven but often injured starters in front of them.
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Captain Spaulding
Footballguy
I think this is a quality posting and question. There has been a trend in recent years, that top rookie RB's don't come right in and beat out incumbents and instantly are top 5 or 10 RB's. Back in the 90's, top rookie RB's were more likely to start right away or a few games into the season. Now its more like year 2 or 3 as the norm before some emerge as RB studs...more comparable to WR progress "3rd year theory". RB's are still quicker to develop than WR's though but the margin of difference has decreased.
Captain Spaulding
Footballguy
Yes, this is the trend from the past that has changed. Back 5-10 years ago, you could count on 1-2 rookie RB's from the rookie class to be top 10 (sometimes top 5) fantasy/NFL studs in their rookie season. You're not getting those immediate returns on investment anymore. I think its pass blocking technique requirements now-adays...at least that is the only conclusion I've come to on the trend change.
UnknownCoach
Footballguy
You have to consider the drafts and situations that have happened the past few seasons. In 2003 McGahee and Larry Johnson were the only two first round backs. McGahee wasnt healthy enough to play and Priest Holmes was leading the NFL in rushing. In 2004 both Kevin Jones and Julius Jones made good on their opportunities and either could have easily been in the top ten if they had started the entire year. Last year Caddilac and Arrington were the two guys. Caddy probably would have been top ten if it wasnt for his injury. Neither Arrington nor any other RB had a prayer of being top ten in Arizona. Nothing has changed in the NFL over the past few years that would make it any more diffacult for a rookie to make the top ten. If it wasnt for injuries to McGahee, Julius Jones, and Caddillac we probably wouldnt even be having this discussion. Just because a handful of players dont finish in the top ten with one opportunity doesnt affect future odds. The odds are still just as good as they've always been.
Drinen covered this issue in his blog:
Link
Code:
2000====bal 12- 4-0 Jamal Lewis (309-1364- 6, 27-296-0)buf 8- 8-0 Shawn Bryson (161- 591- 0, 32-271-2)cle 3-13-0 Travis Prentice (173- 512- 7, 37-191-1)den 11- 5-0 Mike Anderson (297-1487-15, 23-169-0)nyg 12- 4-0 Ron Dayne (228- 770- 5, 3- 11-0)2001====buf 3-13-0 Travis Henry (213- 729- 4, 22-179-0)chi 13- 3-0 Anthony Thomas (278-1183- 7, 22-178-0)cle 7- 9-0 James Jackson (195- 554- 2, 7- 56-0)ind 6-10-0 Dominic Rhodes (233-1104- 9, 34-224-0)min 5-11-0 Michael Bennett (172- 682- 2, 29-226-1)sdg 5-11-0 LaDainian Tomlinson (339-1236-10, 59-367-0)2002====ari 5-11-0 Marcel Shipp (188- 834- 6, 38-413-3)cle 9- 7-0 William Green (243- 887- 6, 16-113-0)den 9- 7-0 Clinton Portis (273-1508-15, 33-364-2)hou 4-12-0 Jonathan Wells (197- 529- 3, 9- 48-0)2003====hou 5-11-0 Domanick Davis (238-1031- 8, 47-351-0)2004====dal 6-10-0 Julius Jones (197- 819- 7, 17-109-0)det 6-10-0 Kevin Jones (241-1133- 5, 28-180-1)2005====gnb 4-12-0 Samkon Gado (143- 582- 6, 10- 77-1)mia 9- 7-0 Ronnie Brown (207- 907- 4, 32-232-1)tam 11- 5-0 Cadillac Williams (290-1178- 6, 20- 81-0)
KnowledgeReignsSupreme
Footballguy
Year 2.Should McGahee count for this topic? His rookie year was clearly a mulligan, and he took the job from Henry early into his soph compaign.
Captain Spaulding
Footballguy
And there it is! 3 straight years of recent without a rookie producing either greater than 10 TDs or greater than 1200 rushing yds. Not very studly trends for our rookie RB's as of late.
Steelers4Life
Footballguy
Exactly. Most of these examples are rookies going to a team with a has-been or never-was RB as the incumbent starter. Unless the rookie RB is supremely talented and going to a team without an established or productive starter, the chances of the rookie overtaking the veteran are pretty slim in year one. People think that Benson would've had the job last year if he hadn't held out, but the chances are that Thomas Jones would've kept the job based on his play on the field and Benson still would've spent the year learning. He'd have gotten more time, but not enough to eat into Jones' numbers.
Aside from injury, I wouldn't expect Williams won't be anything more than a change of pace back this year unless/until Foster gets hurt. Of course, Williams might be just the spark that Foster needs, and if Williams does reasonably well, the Panthers have exactly what they want.
Addai will have his hands full just competing with Rhodes for playing time.
Maroney won't overtake Dillon at the onset, but if Dillon continues looking old and worn out, it won't be long before he's in there more often.
I don't expect much of anything from Lendale White as a rookie, especially early. Unless Brown and/or Henry are gone or injured, his time won't come right away.
Bush will be the exception, because the Saints will almost have to find ways to put the ball in his hands. As a receiver, as a RB, as a returner... whatever.
It's really two compounding issues.
Top backs, who are capable of stepping in immediately and playing at a high level tend to be drafted very high, usually (but not always!) by teams without much at RB.
Excellent backs who need to be brought along a bit more slowly usually go later in the first round or early in the second. They seem to usually go to teams with established starters (e.g. LJohnson, W.McGahee, C.Perry) or teams with someone else they are also looking at. Hence, unless a rookie goes top-5, or an injury takes out the starter, rookie RBs don't get the 250+ carries required for fantasy viability.
Top backs, who are capable of stepping in immediately and playing at a high level tend to be drafted very high, usually (but not always!) by teams without much at RB.
Excellent backs who need to be brought along a bit more slowly usually go later in the first round or early in the second. They seem to usually go to teams with established starters (e.g. LJohnson, W.McGahee, C.Perry) or teams with someone else they are also looking at. Hence, unless a rookie goes top-5, or an injury takes out the starter, rookie RBs don't get the 250+ carries required for fantasy viability.
