NCAA HOOPS THREAD! -- K petitions to get Maui Jim Maui Invitational moved to Transylvania (3 Viewers)

[Bruce Dickinson]

I don't see why guys like Smart or Marshall from Wichita State would look to move unless the money is overwhelming. They're set up to get into the tournament just about every year.

The move to the A-10 helped VCU keep Shaka Smart. If you're in a strong conference, you can make noise in the tournament if you have a good season. If you're in a one-bid conference, you have to win your conference tournament every year to get in, and getting in still means a crappy seed because your conference SOS dragged your team down.Conversely, losing Creighton hurts Wichita's chances for retaining Marshall. The only way the Valley would have been a multi-bid conference was if someone knocked the Shockers out of the conference tournament, and that loss would have cost the Shockers 3-4 seed lines.

Getting back a bit closer to your thought... a lot of coaches are in the profession because they are competitive, want to win, and want to prove to the world they can win. Hard to prove you're the best if you never move up from the Colonial or The Valley. Brad Stevens had a cushy gig at Butler, getting paid top of power conference money in a weak league. He left to compete at a higher level.

 

[Bruce Dickinson]

On a different topic, can you expound on your expectations for Wiggins in the pros, if possible? (Or maybe just point me to where you've done it elsewhere?)

The TL;DR version: Wiggins will be a very good wing defender right away and should be in the All-Defense conversation by his second season. Offensively he's tougher to project because he can't dribble; pair him with a top-tier PG and he will be fantastic shooting off the pass and devastating in transition, but handing him the ball and clearing out for him is a recipe for disaster.

 

[Long Ball Larry]

On a different topic, can you expound on your expectations for Wiggins in the pros, if possible? (Or maybe just point me to where you've done it elsewhere?)

The TL;DR version: Wiggins will be a very good wing defender right away and should be in the All-Defense conversation by his second season. Offensively he's tougher to project because he can't dribble; pair him with a top-tier PG and he will be fantastic shooting off the pass and devastating in transition, but handing him the ball and clearing out for him is a recipe for disaster.

Thanks. Hope to see him paired with MCW.

 

[Mile High]

Is it really about the right conference or right seed? Looking at past winners it seems to be more about the right school. Only about 8 schools have won 3 or more titles with only 14 with 2 or more and 3 of those schools won multiple titles before 1962. Those 8 have won 42 of 75.So unless you get s job at one of those 8 you have about as good of chance of winning at VCU or WSU as anywhere else. I will agree on the coaches wanting to prove they can win anywhere might motivate them to leave.

 

[wadegarrett]

wow, he was going off on selection sunday

alan boston ‏@bostonred88 Mar 16

I dont have U mass in the tourney, they get a 6 seed. So Duke gets to play either Iowa or Tenn playing their 3rd game in 5 days Joke bracket

alan boston ‏@bostonred88 Mar 16

Dayton in in the tournament??????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????? R they ####### kdding. I am done!

alan boston ‏@bostonred88 Mar 16

Notice one seed Louisville gets to knock out both St Louis and Wich st. That is the only reason they are a 4. The ONE AND ONLY reason.

alan boston ‏@bostonred88 Mar 16

and of course Wich faces 8th seeded EIGHTH SEEDED KY. Then they have St Louis or Louisville. What a shame. What a sin. ####### rigged. 100%

Who is this doosh?

 

[Abraham]

On a different topic, can you expound on your expectations for Wiggins in the pros, if possible? (Or maybe just point me to where you've done it elsewhere?)

The TL;DR version: Wiggins will be a very good wing defender right away and should be in the All-Defense conversation by his second season. Offensively he's tougher to project because he can't dribble; pair him with a top-tier PG and he will be fantastic shooting off the pass and devastating in transition, but handing him the ball and clearing out for him is a recipe for disaster.

Very well stated. It doesn't show up on Sportscenter, but he is already a fast, long defender which is where the Deng and Paul George comparisons come in to play. His offense is not near the level of Parker, but he can affect games on both ends of the court.

If I'm milwaukee I probably take Parker or Embid. If I'm Orlando I probably lean towards Parker. If I'm Philly I think that Wiggins is a no-brainer.

 

[shadyridr]

wow, he was going off on selection sunday

alan boston ‏@bostonred88 Mar 16

I dont have U mass in the tourney, they get a 6 seed. So Duke gets to play either Iowa or Tenn playing their 3rd game in 5 days Joke bracket

alan boston ‏@bostonred88 Mar 16

Dayton in in the tournament??????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????? R they ####### kdding. I am done!

alan boston ‏@bostonred88 Mar 16

Notice one seed Louisville gets to knock out both St Louis and Wich st. That is the only reason they are a 4. The ONE AND ONLY reason.

alan boston ‏@bostonred88 Mar 16

and of course Wich faces 8th seeded EIGHTH SEEDED KY. Then they have St Louis or Louisville. What a shame. What a sin. ####### rigged. 100%

Who is this doosh?

nipsey

 

[Good Posting Judge]

wow, he was going off on selection sunday

alan boston ‏@bostonred88 Mar 16

I dont have U mass in the tourney, they get a 6 seed. So Duke gets to play either Iowa or Tenn playing their 3rd game in 5 days Joke bracket

alan boston ‏@bostonred88 Mar 16

Dayton in in the tournament??????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????? R they ####### kdding. I am done!

alan boston ‏@bostonred88 Mar 16

Notice one seed Louisville gets to knock out both St Louis and Wich st. That is the only reason they are a 4. The ONE AND ONLY reason.

alan boston ‏@bostonred88 Mar 16

and of course Wich faces 8th seeded EIGHTH SEEDED KY. Then they have St Louis or Louisville. What a shame. What a sin. ####### rigged. 100%

Who is this doosh?

He's a professional sports gambler primarily, and plays poker as well.

 

[drummer]

wow, he was going off on selection sunday

alan boston ‏@bostonred88 Mar 16

I dont have U mass in the tourney, they get a 6 seed. So Duke gets to play either Iowa or Tenn playing their 3rd game in 5 days Joke bracket

alan boston ‏@bostonred88 Mar 16

Dayton in in the tournament??????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????? R they ####### kdding. I am done!

alan boston ‏@bostonred88 Mar 16

Notice one seed Louisville gets to knock out both St Louis and Wich st. That is the only reason they are a 4. The ONE AND ONLY reason.

alan boston ‏@bostonred88 Mar 16

and of course Wich faces 8th seeded EIGHTH SEEDED KY. Then they have St Louis or Louisville. What a shame. What a sin. ####### rigged. 100%

Who is this doosh?

He's a professional sports gambler primarily, and plays poker as well.

RN?

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

alan boston has 6500 followers on twitter. seems like he's been on tilt lately.

 

[Premier]

SMU is fun to watch. Hell of an offense. Definitely look like a team that could have won a game or two in the tournament.

 

[Bruce Dickinson]

SMU is fun to watch. Hell of an offense. Definitely look like a team that could have won a game or two in the tournament.

They should be even better next year. Losing two seniors, but they signed Emmanuel Mudiay, the #1 PG in this recruiting class and #2 player overall in the RSCI. On the less-than-one-percent chance Joel Embiid doesn't turn pro, SMU will also get Myles Turner, the #2 C in this recruiting class and #6 overall in the RSCI. Both of those guys are potential top-5 picks in the 2015 draft.

 

[shuke]

I forgot how excruciating the wait was between first Sunday and second Thursday.

 

[PlasmaDogPlasma]

Coming into the tournament I was worried about UF getting matched with a quality 6'11+ big that could give the Gators shorter front line troubles. Instead I'm now worried about a 6'9 point guard.

Honestly I think this is a tough match-up for Florida's defense all the way around. Not sure how successful the press is going to be against that offense. If the Bruins get to 70 Florida could be in trouble with their sometimes erratic offense. Really going to need Frazier to be a lot sharper than he was in Orlando.

 

[culdeus]

SMU is fun to watch. Hell of an offense. Definitely look like a team that could have won a game or two in the tournament.

Pretty sure they would have mopped the floor with Duke.

 

[oso diablo]

A good long-run way to look at the numbers is PASE (Performance Against Seed Expectations), which compares team performance to historical averages of teams at that seed line. It doesn't tell isich about one team in one year, but it's an interesting way to evaluate one team or one coach over many years, or a multi-bid conference in a tournament.

not really the best way, though. PASE has an asymmetrical skew. Best way to evaluate over time is Winning % for [Team A] as [seed X] vs. Winning % of [All Teams] at [seed X].

 

[oso diablo]

I forgot how excruciating the wait was between first Sunday and second Thursday.

was thinking the Monday after 1st weekend would be perfect day for MLB to begin

 

[Scoresman]

Speaking of PASE, Duke's Kryxckhgydmski's PASE over the last 10 years is -.819. That's considered beyond horrible.

 

[oso diablo]

Speaking of PASE, Duke's Kryxckhgydmski's PASE over the last 10 years is -.819. That's considered beyond horrible.

case in point about the asymmetrical skew

 

[oso diablo]

Duke's winning % as a #1 seed = 83.3% / All #1 seeds = 78.5%

As a #2: Duke 74.3% vs 70.2%

#3: 60% vs. 64%

#4: 66.7% vs. 58.8%

#5: 66.7% vs 53.2%

 

[oso diablo]

good article about Baylor and Coach Scott Drew

 

[timschochet]

So I'm cautiously optimistic about the Bruins. Yes, Florida is probably a better team. Yes they certainly have more experience, with a more experienced coach. And they're rightfully the #1 seed and it will take a lot to go right for UCLA to win.

But in the past when Bruin teams were destroyed by Florida, UCLA was always beaten mainly because of the length of Florida's players. This time around, the situation is reversed, and it's the Bruins that have the size advantage. Hopefully that will make a difference...

 

[randall146]

LENTH!!

 

[Otis]

A 6'9" point guard in college is crazy and scary. Will be an interesting game tonight. Look for Otis in the stands. I'll be the fat, drunk lawyer.

 

[Mr. Irrelevant]

A 6'9" point guard in college is crazy and scary. Will be an interesting game tonight. Look for Otis in the stands. I'll be the fat, drunk lawyer.

Good thing the game's not at MSG, or that would only narrow you down to about a quarter of the crowd.

 

[Timmay]

So I'm cautiously optimistic about the Bruins. Yes, Florida is probably a better team. Yes they certainly have more experience, with a more experienced coach. And they're rightfully the #1 seed and it will take a lot to go right for UCLA to win.

But in the past when Bruin teams were destroyed by Florida, UCLA was always beaten mainly because of the length of Florida's players. This time around, the situation is reversed, and it's the Bruins that have the size advantage. Hopefully that will make a difference...

UK is the tallest team in all of NCAA, but Florida didn't have too many problems with them this year. UK hasn't been playing up to their potential until the SEC tourney though, so who knows.

My plays for tonight are Arizona, Florida, Dayton, and Baylor.

 

[sporthenry]

Coming into the tournament I was worried about UF getting matched with a quality 6'11+ big that could give the Gators shorter front line troubles. Instead I'm now worried about a 6'9 point guard.

Honestly I think this is a tough match-up for Florida's defense all the way around. Not sure how successful the press is going to be against that offense. If the Bruins get to 70 Florida could be in trouble with their sometimes erratic offense. Really going to need Frazier to be a lot sharper than he was in Orlando.

Anderson is very tall but he is also very slow and his turnover rate isn't that low. He is an efficient guy but wouldn't be too worried about him beating you.

 

[GDogg]

So I'm cautiously optimistic about the Bruins. Yes, Florida is probably a better team. Yes they certainly have more experience, with a more experienced coach. And they're rightfully the #1 seed and it will take a lot to go right for UCLA to win.

But in the past when Bruin teams were destroyed by Florida, UCLA was always beaten mainly because of the length of Florida's players. This time around, the situation is reversed, and it's the Bruins that have the size advantage. Hopefully that will make a difference...

I doubt the size advantage in the post will make a difference, at least with regard to rebounding. UCLA plays much smaller than their height. The Wear twins are posts in name only.

The hope, though, is that because Florida plays man, the Wear twins will be able to draw Young and the PF away from the basket opening up the paint for drives by Norman Powell, Anderson and Adams. The Wears might be the key to the game for the Bruins. If they can play decent post defense, Young is not scary offensively. And, if the Wears can hit the open jumpers that they'll surely get their attention, and then Young, et al, are going to have to respect that and move out of the paint.

But, this is sort of like those old Florida matchups in reverse. Florida plays incredibly slow (despite Barkley and Co. telling everyone they really want to get up and down the floor) and wins with great defense. UCLA runs up and down the floor. Once Florida gets set in the halfcourt defense, they are very difficult to score on. I doubt they'll shut UCLA down in that area, but UCLA would be wise to continue to get out in transition and get some easy baskets whenever possible.

Defensively, I'd bet Powell is on Wilbekin with Adams on Frazier. Powell is quick enough to give Wilbekin problems and Adams' length should hopefully prevent Frazier from going Lee Humphrey II on UCLA again.

 

[Scoresman]

This is the game where Florida's scoring weakness could get exposed.

 

[Frostillicus]

This is the game where Florida's scoring weakness could get exposed.

You mean their 18th in the country in points per possession offense?

 

[GDogg]

Coming into the tournament I was worried about UF getting matched with a quality 6'11+ big that could give the Gators shorter front line troubles. Instead I'm now worried about a 6'9 point guard.

Honestly I think this is a tough match-up for Florida's defense all the way around. Not sure how successful the press is going to be against that offense. If the Bruins get to 70 Florida could be in trouble with their sometimes erratic offense. Really going to need Frazier to be a lot sharper than he was in Orlando.

Anderson is very tall but he is also very slow and his turnover rate isn't that low. He is an efficient guy but wouldn't be too worried about him beating you.

I would. He's very slow, but it really doesn't make much of a difference. He uses his length, strength and ability to change speeds (from slow to very slow) to get wherever he wants. I haven't seen any team, including Arizona, be able to prevent him from getting where he wants offensively. He's made a big believer out of me.

Anderson's problems will come defensively. He's slow and has a ton of problems staying in front of wings. Outside of Frazier and Wilbekin, though, Florida is an abysmal 3 point shooting team (and FT shooting team), so depending on the matchups, he should be able to give whoever he's guarding some space to help stay in front of them.

I'm excited for the game. UCLA has been playing incredibly well since the low point of the season in their loss to pitiful Washington St. And, Florida is a very experienced team that has been playing well since December.

 

[Scoresman]

This is the game where Florida's scoring weakness could get exposed.

You mean their 18th in the country in points per possession offense?

No I mean their PPG average of 70.4 which is 196th in the country in a year where scoring went up overall quite a bit.

 

[GDogg]

This is the game where Florida's scoring weakness could get exposed.

You mean their 18th in the country in points per possession offense?

No I mean their PPG average of 70.4 which is 196th in the country in a year where scoring went up overall quite a bit.

Sure, but a big reason for that is that they are one of the 30 slowest teams in terms of pace out of 350 or so NCAA teams.

 

[Kenny Powers]

So why the #### are the two #1 seed playing after 930pm and we have Dayton/Stanford as the first game?! Im guessing the TV ratings would be better if a 1 seed was playing earlier, and certainly if both 1 seeds werent playing at the same time.

 

[Good Posting Judge]

This is the game where Florida's scoring weakness could get exposed.

You mean their 18th in the country in points per possession offense?

No I mean their PPG average of 70.4 which is 196th in the country in a year where scoring went up overall quite a bit.

*blows out*

 

[Scoresman]

This is the game where Florida's scoring weakness could get exposed.

You mean their 18th in the country in points per possession offense?

No I mean their PPG average of 70.4 which is 196th in the country in a year where scoring went up overall quite a bit.

Sure, but a big reason for that is that they are one of the 30 slowest teams in terms of pace out of 350 or so NCAA teams.

Already been discussed here that teams who play slow tend to keep their opponents in the game longer making them prone to upsets. Historically, slow paced teams don't fare well in the later stages of the tournament

 

[Scoresman]

So why the #### are the two #1 seed playing after 930pm and we have Dayton/Stanford as the first game?! Im guessing the TV ratings would be better if a 1 seed was playing earlier, and certainly if both 1 seeds werent playing at the same time.

So people on both coasts can watch the one seeds play after work?

 

[Frostillicus]

This is the game where Florida's scoring weakness could get exposed.

You mean their 18th in the country in points per possession offense?

No I mean their PPG average of 70.4 which is 196th in the country in a year where scoring went up overall quite a bit.

Sure, but a big reason for that is that they are one of the 30 slowest teams in terms of pace out of 350 or so NCAA teams.

Already been discussed here that teams who play slow tend to keep their opponents in the game longer making them prone to upsets. Historically, slow paced teams don't fare well in the later stages of the tournament

Florida is not a slow paced team on their own. They only end up as a team that plays in games with a low amount of possessions because their defense is so good their opponents have the ball a long time.

 

[Scoresman]

This is the game where Florida's scoring weakness could get exposed.

You mean their 18th in the country in points per possession offense?

No I mean their PPG average of 70.4 which is 196th in the country in a year where scoring went up overall quite a bit.

Sure, but a big reason for that is that they are one of the 30 slowest teams in terms of pace out of 350 or so NCAA teams.

Already been discussed here that teams who play slow tend to keep their opponents in the game longer making them prone to upsets. Historically, slow paced teams don't fare well in the later stages of the tournament

Florida is not a slow paced team on their own. They only end up as a team that plays in games with a low amount of possessions because their defense is so good their opponents have the ball a long time.

Then that works in their favor. Not necessarily calling the upset, just saying it could happen matchup-wise.

 

[Good Posting Judge]

Florida has the 8th longest average possession length on offense for the remaining 16 teams.

They have the longest average possesion on defense of the remaining 16 teams, and the 2nd longest overall in NCAA D-1, behind 'Cuse.

 

[Good Posting Judge]

This is the game where Florida's scoring weakness could get exposed.

You mean their 18th in the country in points per possession offense?

No I mean their PPG average of 70.4 which is 196th in the country in a year where scoring went up overall quite a bit.

Sure, but a big reason for that is that they are one of the 30 slowest teams in terms of pace out of 350 or so NCAA teams.

Already been discussed here that teams who play slow tend to keep their opponents in the game longer making them prone to upsets. Historically, slow paced teams don't fare well in the later stages of the tournament

Florida is not a slow paced team on their own. They only end up as a team that plays in games with a low amount of possessions because their defense is so good their opponents have the ball a long time.

Then that works in their favor. Not necessarily calling the upset, just saying it could happen matchup-wise.

Any team could win this round.

 

[Scoresman]

Also, thinking further, I don't think it matters whether the result of a team's slow pace is on purpose or a result of their defense. Less possessions per game introduces more variability regardless of the cause.

 

[Kenny Powers]

So why the #### are the two #1 seed playing after 930pm and we have Dayton/Stanford as the first game?! Im guessing the TV ratings would be better if a 1 seed was playing earlier, and certainly if both 1 seeds werent playing at the same time.

So people on both coasts can watch the one seeds play after work?

Why should I have to stay up until 1am to find out the outcome of Zona's game?

 

[PlasmaDogPlasma]

I don't think anybody is arguing that UCLA doesn't have a decent chance in this game.

Florida is pretty comfortable playing zone if they need to.

Anderson on Frazier might be a good idea. Frazier drives more than Lee Humphrey did, but not much more.

The Gators have been good all year at getting back defensively and not allowing easy transition buckets. UCLA might be a different test though.

 

[Good Posting Judge]

So why the #### are the two #1 seed playing after 930pm and we have Dayton/Stanford as the first game?! Im guessing the TV ratings would be better if a 1 seed was playing earlier, and certainly if both 1 seeds werent playing at the same time.

So people on both coasts can watch the one seeds play after work?

Why should I have to stay up until 1am to find out the outcome of Zona's game?

Because your ancestors were too chicken#### to move anywhere cool?

 

[Kenny Powers]

So why the #### are the two #1 seed playing after 930pm and we have Dayton/Stanford as the first game?! Im guessing the TV ratings would be better if a 1 seed was playing earlier, and certainly if both 1 seeds werent playing at the same time.

So people on both coasts can watch the one seeds play after work?

Why should I have to stay up until 1am to find out the outcome of Zona's game?

Because your ancestors were too chicken#### to move anywhere cool?

I moved 8 hours south of my ancestors. They were too dumb to see the forest thru the snow. Still no reason NCAA basketball should be ending around 1am+ on a thursday EST

 

[Scoresman]

So why the #### are the two #1 seed playing after 930pm and we have Dayton/Stanford as the first game?! Im guessing the TV ratings would be better if a 1 seed was playing earlier, and certainly if both 1 seeds werent playing at the same time.

So people on both coasts can watch the one seeds play after work?

Why should I have to stay up until 1am to find out the outcome of Zona's game?

Why should I have to leave work early to catch the start of it?

 

[Kenny Powers]

So why the #### are the two #1 seed playing after 930pm and we have Dayton/Stanford as the first game?! Im guessing the TV ratings would be better if a 1 seed was playing earlier, and certainly if both 1 seeds werent playing at the same time.

So people on both coasts can watch the one seeds play after work?

Why should I have to stay up until 1am to find out the outcome of Zona's game?

Why should I have to leave work early to catch the start of it?

Because its your job. Be more prudent and get that day off or call out beforehand.

Only reason Im going to bed before midnight is because I have to work the next day, no to anger left coasters.

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

stay up late. you're not 8 or 80 years old, are you?

instead of telling people to get off work, why not take tomorrow off so you can get all the sleep you need? maybe take a half day or just work from home? anything beats crying about a game starting too late.

 

[Kenny Powers]

stay up late. you're not 8 or 80 years old, are you?

instead of telling people to get off work, why not take tomorrow off so you can get all the sleep you need? maybe take a half day or just work from home? anything beats crying about a game starting too late.

I work at a hospital. Gotta wake up at 530am to be there by 7am. So yeah, I cant work from home, and half days dont happen in my profession. I need to schedule my time off at least a month or so in advance. Id rather sleep at that time of night than waste a day off on Zona, same as last sunday's late game for UCLA which is what I did. go to sleep.

I like you Rud, but sort of funny you of all people trying to call me out on not staying up late and getting out of work. Im sure you do more than write articles on FF, prognosticate and project stats for the future season, and moderate the forum, but telling people to blow off work is easy when you do what you do. Most people cant dictate their work hours.