NE fantasy outlook? (1 Viewer)

[LionSlappy]

We all know Brady will be Brady, the TEs will be solid and the RB situation will be one BIG rbbc, but how do you see the Pats WR corp panning out this year?

For one, will Welker return to his 100 catch, 1000 yard pre-injury status after a full-year to recover? I get the feeling that he is most effective when their is a deep threat like Moss the take the heat off of him.

Will Branch be a consistent fantasy WR?

Will Tate ever emerge or will Price take over his role (whatever that is)?

 

[mrip541]

In my opinion, the new direction of the pats offense makes Brady the only reliable starter as everyone else's production is completely different week to week depending on the gameplan.

 

[loose circuits]

In my opinion, the new direction of the pats offense makes Brady the only reliable starter as everyone else's production is completely different week to week depending on the gameplan.

yep, pretty much covers the passing and rushing (which could be a 4 man committee) anything stated in this type of thread would be pure speculation

 

[thriftyrocker]

In my opinion, the new direction of the pats offense makes Brady the only reliable starter as everyone else's production is completely different week to week depending on the gameplan.

Gronk and Welker will be "reliable starters." That seems like so much of a given it's not controversial. Whether they're elite or not is certainly much more up for grabs.

 

[mrip541]

In my opinion, the new direction of the pats offense makes Brady the only reliable starter as everyone else's production is completely different week to week depending on the gameplan.

Gronk and Welker will be "reliable starters." That seems like so much of a given it's not controversial. Whether they're elite or not is certainly much more up for grabs.

Gronk topped 10 points 4 times last year in standard leagues and in ppr was TE 15 in points per game with 7 games below 5 points. He did have a couple monster games but I wouldn't call it reliable. With Welker it's more of him not coming anywhere close to his 2009 numbers. I mean in ppr last year he dropped like 20 spots and with the TEs developing I don't see his numbers getting any better.

 

[thriftyrocker]

Gronk topped 10 points 4 times last year in standard leagues and in ppr was TE 15 in points per game with 7 games below 5 points.

Vernon Davis topped 10 points 4 times last year in standard leagues. Not sure what your 1st stat proves.In the last 8 games, Gronk averaged 13.7 PPG in PPR leagues which was more than just about everyone except Jason Witten. Not sure what your 2nd stat proves.

 

[shortbow]

Theres another NE fantasy general thread somewhere.

Predictions:

Targets:

1. Welker 100/1000/7

2. Gronk 80/950/8

3. Branch 85/950/7

4. Hernandez 70/900/6

5. Woodhead 60/600/5

6. Edelman 45/400/1

7. Tate 20/150/1

Carries:

1. BJGE 240/1100/13

2. Woodhead 100/500/4

3. Vareen 150/600/3

4. Ridley 75/250/2

 

[munchkin]

Gronk topped 10 points 4 times last year in standard leagues and in ppr was TE 15 in points per game with 7 games below 5 points.

Vernon Davis topped 10 points 4 times last year in standard leagues. Not sure what your 1st stat proves.In the last 8 games, Gronk averaged 13.7 PPG in PPR leagues which was more than just about everyone except Jason Witten. Not sure what your 2nd stat proves.

As an effective do it all player Gronkowski will be on the field more than any of the other TE's. Hernandez will be the up and down player in offensive sets that will likely see Tate, Price, Branch and Hernandez rotating on to the field with Welker likely being the other staple. There is also a lot of discussion regarding the signing of another veteran. Who that is and at what skill level they are at will speak to how they feel about Tate's ability to take it to the next level.If Brady and the coaching staff had trusted him last season he would have seen more targets. He had a couple of really bad drops but also made some great catches. It is likely his route running skills that are keeping him from becoming more involved in the Offense.There are a lot of unknowns after Gronkowski and Welker but those two should put up reliable numbers. With Gronk having another year in the system he should score well enough to make him a safe TE play with the occasional upside multi-TD game.

 

[eakfootball]

WR catches/yards/TDs

Welker 105/1110/5

Branch 72/860/6

Tate 39/450/3

Price 33/400/2

Edleman 41/380/1

RB Rushing/receiving/total TDs

Vereen 830/400/6

BJGE 650/200/8

Woodhead 300/300/2

Ridley 200/60/3

TE

Gronk 59/600/5

Hernandez 65/630/3

 

[mrip541]

I think that Gronk is going to put up a bunch of really weak fantasy games and I think his numbers and the Pats strategy support that. We shall see...

The above Pats predictions show Brady breaking the NFL passing yards record by a significant amount. In my opinion that isn't going to happen.

 

[Ksquared]

I think that Gronk is going to put up a bunch of really weak fantasy games and I think his numbers and the Pats strategy support that. We shall see...The above Pats predictions show Brady breaking the NFL passing yards record by a significant amount. In my opinion that isn't going to happen.

A little over the top on the passing predictions....If anything, I see the Pats going the other way and getting back to much more of a defense/running game plan much like they did when they were winning the Super Bowls.

 

[Aabye]

Theres another NE fantasy general thread somewhere.Predictions:Targets:1. Welker 100/1000/72. Gronk 80/950/83. Branch 85/950/74. Hernandez 70/900/65. Woodhead 60/600/56. Edelman 45/400/17. Tate 20/150/1Carries:1. BJGE 240/1100/132. Woodhead 100/500/43. Vareen 150/600/34. Ridley 75/250/2

Those are, um, optimistic projections.4950 yards passing and 2450 yards rushing = 7400 yards of offense. The 2000 Rams currently hold the all-time NFL record with 7,075 total yards of offense.If you give Brady 65% completions, he's throwing it about 700 times to go with 565 rushing attempts. 700 attempts would be an all-time record, which would fit nicely with the record 460 completions that he'd also throw. Not bad to go along with one of the best rushing attacks in the NFL.

 

[Jercules]

They're just that good.

 

[Zdravko]

I expect Edelman to steal 20-25 receptions in the slot and Tate/Price to take another 40-50.

Welker is just not in his prime any more. 1000 yards sounds like the wishful prayer of an owner trying hard to sell based on name recognition. Same goes for any projections exceeding Welker's 5.7 rec/game average. 80 receptions for 800 yards is more real.

Branch is not going to exceed his 2010 averages with the Patriots, either. 70 receptions, 900 yards is the ceiling here, and that's only if no FAs and no youngsters (Tate, Price, Edelman) seriously stepping up. Big 'if'.

Gronkowski is a reliable low-end TE1 with around 60 receptions. Hernandez is the type of pass-catching TE that is more valuable to his actual team than to your FF one. 35 catches for 500 yards.

BJGE and Danny Woodhead will probably start the reason where they left off in terms of carries, but you should expect Vereen to get 50% of the touches by the end of the season. A three-headed RBBC looks likely with Ridley waiting to steal short-yardage and GL work from BJGE.

 

[32 Counter Pass]

Theres another NE fantasy general thread somewhere.Predictions:Targets:1. Welker 100/1000/72. Gronk 80/950/83. Branch 85/950/74. Hernandez 70/900/65. Woodhead 60/600/56. Edelman 45/400/17. Tate 20/150/1Carries:1. BJGE 240/1100/132. Woodhead 100/500/43. Vareen 150/600/34. Ridley 75/250/2

Those are some pretty gaudy numbers. I doubt Woodhead comes close to 45 recpt, let alone 60 because Vereen will cut into his totals. Edleman's numbers are also over inflated. I doubt BJGE ever sniffs 1K based on Belichick's history and the RBBC situation.

 

[shortbow]

Im not expecting to be right, I was trying to be as on the high end as possible, ill try to explain my thought process.

Predictions:

Targets:

1. Welker 100/1000/7 - Expecting Welker to return to form in terms of receptions and yards, hes gonna lose a lot of his red zone looks.

2. Gronk 80/950/8 - Like it or not, he is their best TE, Blocking/Receiving/Atheleting

3. Branch 85/950/7 - he played the #1 role last year with not so #1 numbers, but he showed that he is still good to go in the pats system

4. Hernandez 70/900/6 - was honestly expecting them to make Hernandez a WR, he needs to work on a lot of things think he has a big season and still finishes number two Pats TE

5. Woodhead 60/600/5 - I doubt he gets more than 50 Receptions but I think his role is gonna become more of an everydown option (similar to R. Bush) hes been lining up out wide in a lot of Pats formations with great success (check out their five player bunch formation.)

6. Edelman 45/400/1 - Standard WR 3 in a system that doesnt use 3 WRs

7. Tate 20/150/1 - So much potential wasted, I dont expect him to be anything more than a return man for as long as he remains in NE

Carries:

1. BJGE 240/1100/13 - More of the same, I think these are last years numbers exactly?

2. Woodhead 100/500/4 - Similar to BJGE im pretty sure Woody went for close to 100 and 4 rushing TDs, he cant run everyone over but he can catch everything thats not 8 feet off the ground from the backfield

3. Vareen 150/600/3 - Expecting a heavy rookie load for this man, all goal line and red zone I think go to the law firm though.

4. Ridley 75/250/2 - Scraps, running out clocks

 

[DawnBTVS]

Tom Brady: 338/528 for 4,012 yards and 30 TD vs 8 INT. I think he's just so good that he'll be effective on fewer pass attempts than other QBs with more attempts.

RB1 - BenJarvus Green Ellis: 208 carries for 936 yards and 7 TD. Will get the lion's share of the carries among the RBs.

RB2 - Danny Woodhead: 48 carries for 197 yards and 1 TD. 32 catches for 349 yards and 4 TD. Steps into the Kevin Faulk role well.

RB3 - Shane Vereen: 96 carries for 413 yards and 2 TD. 14 catches for 106 yards and 1 TD. Won't make as big an impact as many suspect but will see more time as the year goes on.

RB4 - Stevan Ridley: 32 carries for 109 yards and 4 TD. Will be the short yardage/GL back and punch in a few touchdowns while essentially serving a redshirt season.

WR1 - Wes Welker: 112 catches for 1,142 yards and 5 TD. Return to form.

WR2 - Deion Branch: 48 catches for 701 yards and 5 TD. Should be productive with a full season being on the same page with Brady.

WR3 - Brandon Tate: 26 catches for 374 yards and 2 TD. Remains a big play threat without much value as an overall receiver.

WR4 - Julian Edelman: 14 catches for 151 yards and 1 TD. Remains most valuable as a punt returner while chipping in here and there in sub packages.

WR5 - Taylor Price: 8 catches for 98 yards and 0 TD. Mostly a special team role.

TE1 - Aaron Hernandez: 44 catches for 559 yards and 4 TD. Pretty much in line with last year's numbers. Ball gets too spread around for his talent to match guys like Gates.

TE2 - Rob Gronkowski: 40 catches for 532 yards and 8 TD. Similar to last year and remains the better red zone target between the two TEs.

The Patriots are one of the hardest teams to project because Brady spreads the ball out so evenly, even just from game to game. So any of the grouping of Branch/Woodhead/Hernandez/Gronk could see their catches go +10/-10 from these projections.

 

[Clifford]

In my opinion, the new direction of the pats offense makes Brady the only reliable starter as everyone else's production is completely different week to week depending on the gameplan.

Gronk and Welker will be "reliable starters." That seems like so much of a given it's not controversial. Whether they're elite or not is certainly much more up for grabs.

Gronk is not a given. Welled will be a solid wr2 and branch a decent wr3, but that and Brady is all I would want to rely on for starters.

 

[Clifford]

Theres another NE fantasy general thread somewhere.Predictions:Targets:1. Welker 100/1000/72. Gronk 80/950/83. Branch 85/950/74. Hernandez 70/900/65. Woodhead 60/600/56. Edelman 45/400/17. Tate 20/150/1Carries:1. BJGE 240/1100/132. Woodhead 100/500/43. Vareen 150/600/34. Ridley 75/250/2

Have two tes on the same team ever both gone over 900 yards?

 

[shortbow]

Theres another NE fantasy general thread somewhere.Predictions:Targets:1. Welker 100/1000/72. Gronk 80/950/83. Branch 85/950/74. Hernandez 70/900/65. Woodhead 60/600/56. Edelman 45/400/17. Tate 20/150/1Carries:1. BJGE 240/1100/132. Woodhead 100/500/43. Vareen 150/600/34. Ridley 75/250/2

Have two tes on the same team ever both gone over 900 yards?

Better question would be, has a team ever had two tes that were better than their 2nd WR and had Tom Brady as a quarterback.

 

[Clifford]

I really don't think that's a better question. BTW, the answer, unless you are firm on the name Tom Brady, is yes, Colts last year. They just didn't play at the same time.

Point being one of Gronk or Hernandez will have a (long)shot at hitting those numbers but not both. The only way either one does is if they see 80+% of the snaps.

Do you see NE in a two-TE formation for 80+% of the snaps this year? I just don't think they would ever be that predictable.

Every year NE is one of the best offenses in the league, and rarely do they field fantasy starters at all positions.

Last year only Brady was started every week for the whole season. The rest were good for small stretches. New England is always this way.

They maintain one of the league's best offense by being fluid and only sticking to what works. When Randy and Brady both broke records that worked all season and they stuck with it. Next season brady goes down, Moss still does well, and the running game stinks. Last year Moss stunk and the rest of the WRs mostly stunk and the running game was a revolving door.

I just can not see them sticking with one formation for the majority of an entire season, and I don't think either Gronk or Hernandez are good enough to post the numbers they did last year if teams gameplan against them. The reason Moss is the beast that he is that when he tried it didn't matter if teams gameplanned for him or not. Gronk and Hernandez, as good as they are, are simply not that good.

 

[Ned]

Im not expecting to be right, I was trying to be as on the high end as possible, ill try to explain my thought process.Predictions:Targets:1. Welker 100/1000/7 - Expecting Welker to return to form in terms of receptions and yards, hes gonna lose a lot of his red zone looks.2. Gronk 80/950/8 - Like it or not, he is their best TE, Blocking/Receiving/Atheleting3. Branch 85/950/7 - he played the #1 role last year with not so #1 numbers, but he showed that he is still good to go in the pats system4. Hernandez 70/900/6 - was honestly expecting them to make Hernandez a WR, he needs to work on a lot of things think he has a big season and still finishes number two Pats TE5. Woodhead 60/600/5 - I doubt he gets more than 50 Receptions but I think his role is gonna become more of an everydown option (similar to R. Bush) hes been lining up out wide in a lot of Pats formations with great success (check out their five player bunch formation.)6. Edelman 45/400/1 - Standard WR 3 in a system that doesnt use 3 WRs7. Tate 20/150/1 - So much potential wasted, I dont expect him to be anything more than a return man for as long as he remains in NECarries:1. BJGE 240/1100/13 - More of the same, I think these are last years numbers exactly?2. Woodhead 100/500/4 - Similar to BJGE im pretty sure Woody went for close to 100 and 4 rushing TDs, he cant run everyone over but he can catch everything thats not 8 feet off the ground from the backfield3. Vareen 150/600/3 - Expecting a heavy rookie load for this man, all goal line and red zone I think go to the law firm though.4. Ridley 75/250/2 - Scraps, running out clocks

It's fun to do these individually and go for pie in the sky, but you have to backtest theses against total team output. Those totals for the whole team are astronomical. That also doesn't factor in the odds/ends of Brady rushes, random wr catches, end arounds, etc.

 

[Go deep]

Theres another NE fantasy general thread somewhere.Predictions:Targets:1. Welker 100/1000/72. Gronk 80/950/83. Branch 85/950/74. Hernandez 70/900/65. Woodhead 60/600/56. Edelman 45/400/17. Tate 20/150/1Carries:1. BJGE 240/1100/132. Woodhead 100/500/43. Vareen 150/600/34. Ridley 75/250/2

Have two tes on the same team ever both gone over 900 yards?

Better question would be, has a team ever had two tes that were better than their 2nd WR and had Tom Brady as a quarterback.

An even better question would be can Tom Brady throw for 5000 yards to his WR's and TE's? Throw in 500+ yards to the RBs and Brady is going to have a pretty good season.

 

[shortbow]

Theres another NE fantasy general thread somewhere.Predictions:Targets:1. Welker 100/1000/72. Gronk 80/950/83. Branch 85/950/74. Hernandez 70/900/65. Woodhead 60/600/56. Edelman 45/400/17. Tate 20/150/1Carries:1. BJGE 240/1100/132. Woodhead 100/500/43. Vareen 150/600/34. Ridley 75/250/2

Have two tes on the same team ever both gone over 900 yards?

Better question would be, has a team ever had two tes that were better than their 2nd WR and had Tom Brady as a quarterback.

An even better question would be can Tom Brady throw for 5000 yards to his WR's and TE's? Throw in 500+ yards to the RBs and Brady is going to have a pretty good season.

I dont think thats a better question. We all know he can.

 

[Go deep]

Theres another NE fantasy general thread somewhere.Predictions:Targets:1. Welker 100/1000/72. Gronk 80/950/83. Branch 85/950/74. Hernandez 70/900/65. Woodhead 60/600/56. Edelman 45/400/17. Tate 20/150/1Carries:1. BJGE 240/1100/132. Woodhead 100/500/43. Vareen 150/600/34. Ridley 75/250/2

Have two tes on the same team ever both gone over 900 yards?

Better question would be, has a team ever had two tes that were better than their 2nd WR and had Tom Brady as a quarterback.

An even better question would be can Tom Brady throw for 5000 yards to his WR's and TE's? Throw in 500+ yards to the RBs and Brady is going to have a pretty good season.

I dont think thats a better question. We all know he can.

I dont know that Brady can throw for more than 5500 yards. As a matter of fact, I know he cant, there isnt even a chance.

 

[Zdravko]

I dont know that Brady can throw for more than 5500 yards. As a matter of fact, I know he cant, there isnt even a chance.

I think he was including pre-game warm-up throws and, possibly, playoffs.

 

[shortbow]

I dont know that Brady can throw for more than 5500 yards. As a matter of fact, I know he cant, there isnt even a chance.

I think he was including pre-game warm-up throws and, possibly, playoffs.

Preseason and Postseason + Superbowl and Probowl (yes both) it would be easily pushing 11k

 

[AngryPatriot]

Tough to count on any NE players for fantasy consistency. Welker should be fully healed but with the TE's and Edelman/Woodhead etc I doubt he'll be back to 110 rec's a year but he could pass 90. Just a hunch but I think they may bring in one of the veteran WR's out there and resurrect. Vereen is worth watching. They certainly give bye week and injury fill-in options with the amount of points they usually put up. ANd the D should be worthy.

 

[Go deep]

I dont know that Brady can throw for more than 5500 yards. As a matter of fact, I know he cant, there isnt even a chance.

I think he was including pre-game warm-up throws and, possibly, playoffs.

Preseason and Postseason + Superbowl and Probowl (yes both) it would be easily pushing 11k

Over the next 3 seasons.

 

[Go deep]

In non-ppr, I would prefer the NE players in this order (12 team, 6 pt all tds, te required).

1. Tom Brady

2. Shane Vereen

3. Rob Gronkowski

4. Wes Welker

5. Deion Branch

6. Aaron Hernandez

 

[shortbow]

In non-ppr, I would prefer the NE players in this order (12 team, 6 pt all tds, te required).1. Tom Brady2. Shane Vereen3. Rob Gronkowski4. Wes Welker5. Deion Branch6. Aaron Hernandez

I think Vareen is gonna be a big part of the run game but do you really think he is gonna pass up BJGE this season? I dont know enough about Shane Vareen, I know hes a stud but BJGE and Woody did some pretty impressive stuff last year.

 

[MoraccoMole]

In non-ppr, I would prefer the NE players in this order (12 team, 6 pt all tds, te required).1. Tom Brady2. Shane Vereen3. Rob Gronkowski4. Wes Welker5. Deion Branch6. Aaron Hernandez

I think Vareen is gonna be a big part of the run game but do you really think he is gonna pass up BJGE this season? I dont know enough about Shane Vareen, I know hes a stud but BJGE and Woody did some pretty impressive stuff last year.

There have been many arguements against Vereen succeeding in another thread. Not since Corey Dillon have the Pats had a fantasy rb worth their salt. I agree that if an rb can break away in this system, it is pure gold. But how is this situation different than Indy? Seems like we have been chasing rbs from these two teams hoping to strike gold the last few years.

 

[Go deep]

In non-ppr, I would prefer the NE players in this order (12 team, 6 pt all tds, te required).1. Tom Brady2. Shane Vereen3. Rob Gronkowski4. Wes Welker5. Deion Branch6. Aaron Hernandez

I think Vareen is gonna be a big part of the run game but do you really think he is gonna pass up BJGE this season? I dont know enough about Shane Vareen, I know hes a stud but BJGE and Woody did some pretty impressive stuff last year.

There have been many arguements against Vereen succeeding in another thread. Not since Corey Dillon have the Pats had a fantasy rb worth their salt. I agree that if an rb can break away in this system, it is pure gold. But how is this situation different than Indy? Seems like we have been chasing rbs from these two teams hoping to strike gold the last few years.

Thats true, but I'm not chasing a Patriot RB. Its Vereens talent I am optimistic about. He was my 2nd favorite RB in this draft (tied with Williams), so I was going to be high on him no matter where he went. Even a coach who prefers to use a rbbc won't be able to keep a more talented back off the field. Thats exactly what I think Vereen is. Guys like BJGE and Woodhead won't be much competition if Vereen is as good as i think he is.Edit, I'm not suggesting Vereen is going to get 300 carries, just that he will be the main back and is the most well rounded RB on the team. Depending how quick they get back to work, I think Vereen gets between 200-225 carries and 40-50 receptions, 7-9 total TDs.

 

[GoodLloydHaveMercy]

I dont know that Brady can throw for more than 5500 yards. As a matter of fact, I know he cant, there isnt even a chance.

I think he was including pre-game warm-up throws and, possibly, playoffs.

yeah but that would only mean 1 extra game no?

 

[David Yudkin]

I haven't given this much thought, but at first blush . . .

It would not surprise me if the Pats leading receiver (or maybe better stated a decent cog in the offense) is not on the roster yet. With all this time having elapsed, it really would not shock me if they signed someone or traded for Ochocinco or Steve Smith. I also would not totally rule out that they poke around Randy Moss if he were willing to play for peanuts. I don't see Edelman having much of a role in the passing game. I think he will be used more on special teams. I also don't think Welker gets as many receptions as he did prior to his injury. Probably in the mid 90s for receptions. Last year, it became pretty clear that Edelman would play in place of Welker and not very much with Welker on the field at the same time.

Branch performed very similar to how he did in his first go round with NE. He either had a big game or was essentially a non-factor. In 73 career games as a Pat (regular and post-season), Branch has scored 10 or more fantasy points (0 ppr) 22 times . . . basically 30% of the time. I still think he will have 4-5 good games on the season, but he really won't help you the rest of the time. (I am not sure that that is really all that different than many other WR.)

I do think the Pats will try to get Tate and Price some more time on the field to determine if they have something or if it's time to cut bait. They really have not been great at drafting receivers over the last few years.

I don't think the Pats have any inclination to dub one of their backs as a bell cow and make him a featured back. The last few years, I think they were happy with a RBBC, but so many backs got dinged that others got more work as a result and that usually made one guy playable for fantasy purposes.

Depending on how well the defense does, I think the Pats will try to run more and be more balanced (even split runs to passes). Last year went so well overall in the regular season that I would expect more turnovers and more bad breaks, so the Pats may end up in more close games and may have to pass more.

Realistically, I don't see how Brady could repeat last year in terms of TD to INT. He could still have strong numbers, but I have to think balls will get tipped and he will turn the ball over more. He also still has his two REGULAR SEASON streaks alive . . . most consecutive home wins and most consecutive passes without an interception (neither of which mean anything).