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Need help finding ADP and Projections data (1 Viewer)

TheMathNinja

Footballguy
Hey Sharks,

So going into this year's draft, I'm looking, like you all are, at a startling number of different projections around players by all the FBG staff and others, as well as what the wider world believes about the draft via ADP. What I'm after is this: is there a way to optimize return and minimize risk by looking historically at how ADP and projections have fared against actual performance?

In particular, one question I have when looking at the Projections Dominator is, "Should I really weight Dodds at 100% (the default setting), or is it wise to weight them all equally, or perhaps at some other mix?" If I have historic data on what the FBG projections are, and what actual season-end results are, I can formulate an optimal Projection-weighting-mix and use those numbers as my actual projections. My intuition that optimum is to favor Dodds more than the other predictors, but not 100%. If I have historic data, i can answer this definitively.

I'm also interested in how ADP plays a role in this mix since it doesn't just follow "experts", but the whole of fantasy knowledge and valuation. So do any of you know where I can find good data sets of ADP, as well as records of how various experts have projected players in the preseason? It would be much appreciated, thanks!

 

GregR

Footballguy
Hey Sharks,

So going into this year's draft, I'm looking, like you all are, at a startling number of different projections around players by all the FBG staff and others, as well as what the wider world believes about the draft via ADP. What I'm after is this: is there a way to optimize return and minimize risk by looking historically at how ADP and projections have fared against actual performance?

In particular, one question I have when looking at the Projections Dominator is, "Should I really weight Dodds at 100% (the default setting), or is it wise to weight them all equally, or perhaps at some other mix?" If I have historic data on what the FBG projections are, and what actual season-end results are, I can formulate an optimal Projection-weighting-mix and use those numbers as my actual projections. My intuition that optimum is to favor Dodds more than the other predictors, but not 100%. If I have historic data, i can answer this definitively.

I'm also interested in how ADP plays a role in this mix since it doesn't just follow "experts", but the whole of fantasy knowledge and valuation. So do any of you know where I can find good data sets of ADP, as well as records of how various experts have projected players in the preseason? It would be much appreciated, thanks!
Probably not a horrible idea: The Best Fantasy Football Experts (Multi-Year Accuracy Report)

 

DiStefano

Footballguy
They are estimates, and as such, subject to variation. Does Dodds have a good record? You bet. Does that mean that he will always be right? Of course not.

We lost a basketball game one time because some kid off the bench hit 5 three pointers in the last 6 minutes. But he was sitting on the bench for a reason. He wasn't as good as the starters, game in and game out.

 

Thursday

Footballguy
I use the site Greg Russell posted. Typically I will look at this link: http://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/accuracy/draft.php. I use that information for each year to define a weighting on average draft analysis, such as 50% for 2012, 40% for 2011, and 10% for 2010. I then use the Projections Dominator to weight accordingly. While Dodds has been good overall, Henry gives him a run for the money in regards to some positions and has actually ranked higher a number of times.

I also use some other sites and weight the "User" section in the PD as well. This has always worked well for me.

 

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