Evil G
Footballguy
Maybe there will be someone out there who might collate the real data to shore up this thread...(and maybe this kind of thread already exists, dunno)
But I was ruminating on the relative odds that a given Rookie pick will pan out, considering only its position. The evidence I will provide will be anecdotal, but I am sure you'll have seen some of the same patterns.
By 'panning out', I'll qualify the phrase insofar as it means that the Drafted players become usable starters in any format. Defining whether a given pick lives up to its expectations (say, that the 1.01 turns into a stud) certainly requires more data than the remnants of my foggy, aging brain.
Nonetheless, here are my very rough estimates, over the past 5 or 6 years of Rookie Drafting:
Picks 1.01 to 1.04: 75% Pan out rate [examples (roughly where he went in my leagues his rookie year): Gurley (1.01), Luck (1.02), Julio Jones (1.03), Ingram (1.01) Busts include Trent (1.02), Daniel Thomas 1.02)]
Picks 1.05 to 2.02: 50% Pan out rate [examples include OBJ (1.08), Cam Newton (1.06), Fleener 1.09, Freeman (2.02), Dez (1.09)...plus many, many busts]
Picks 2.03 to 3.05 25% Pan out rate [examples include Russell Wilson (3.03) and Derek Carr (3.05)]
Picks 3.06 to 4.12 10% Pan out rate [examples include Stephan Diggs (4.12). He's not there yet, perhaps, but it's cool he went 4.12 and could be quite a player]
I'd love to see someone prove my numbers right or wrong, as I am playing the game by feel, as I have for fifteen years.
But I was ruminating on the relative odds that a given Rookie pick will pan out, considering only its position. The evidence I will provide will be anecdotal, but I am sure you'll have seen some of the same patterns.
By 'panning out', I'll qualify the phrase insofar as it means that the Drafted players become usable starters in any format. Defining whether a given pick lives up to its expectations (say, that the 1.01 turns into a stud) certainly requires more data than the remnants of my foggy, aging brain.
Nonetheless, here are my very rough estimates, over the past 5 or 6 years of Rookie Drafting:
Picks 1.01 to 1.04: 75% Pan out rate [examples (roughly where he went in my leagues his rookie year): Gurley (1.01), Luck (1.02), Julio Jones (1.03), Ingram (1.01) Busts include Trent (1.02), Daniel Thomas 1.02)]
Picks 1.05 to 2.02: 50% Pan out rate [examples include OBJ (1.08), Cam Newton (1.06), Fleener 1.09, Freeman (2.02), Dez (1.09)...plus many, many busts]
Picks 2.03 to 3.05 25% Pan out rate [examples include Russell Wilson (3.03) and Derek Carr (3.05)]
Picks 3.06 to 4.12 10% Pan out rate [examples include Stephan Diggs (4.12). He's not there yet, perhaps, but it's cool he went 4.12 and could be quite a player]
I'd love to see someone prove my numbers right or wrong, as I am playing the game by feel, as I have for fifteen years.
