I would love to see an article listing the particular styles of defense, i.e. Tampa 2, 4-3, 3-4, and the percentage of points per position in that set. So for example if I know for example in the Tampa 2 that the #1 corner averages the most per position at 15% of the total points for the defense, I can look at the #1's backup for a roster spot in dynasty leagues or maybe target free agents or new players in that position for following years.
Anyone know if it's already been written? Or maybe one of our esteemed FBG's can do some research
I doubt anyone's done that kind of statistical analysis. Have at it -- we're accepting freelance submissions for another couple days.
In all seriousness, though I'm very much an advocate of understanding the impact scheme and a player's responsibility within the scheme have on IDP production and regularly look for potential statistical trends that prove what the playbook would suggest, I'm not sure you'll get much predictive information from a percentage of team's total defensive fantasy points per position. As Tick mentioned, there are too many variables in play between each team to get a reliable sample size.
Also, I think you can get into a lot of trouble using trends without considering context. For example, targeting the Tampa-2 WLB over a non-Tampa-2 WLB, or a RDE over a LDE, or the #1 corner over the #2 corner, or the SS over the FS on any given team is probably not a good idea.
I think every prospective IDP owner should look to build the following IDP-specific knowledge base.
1. Understand the basic responsibilities of each defensive position.
Simply realizing what a SLB must do differently from the WLB or how a 3-4 defense is different than a 4-3 defense will put you well ahead of your competition.
2. Understand how to scout players yourself or what to look for in the scouting reports of others.
Figuring out that a prospective situation has potential for IDP value is nice, but you need to be able to determine whether the player who fills that spot has the skill set and talent to realize that value.
3. Understand how your league's scoring system affects the value of X talent in Y scheme.
Easiest piece of knowledge to gain but routinely ignored.
Once you've mastered those, then it's worth examining trends within and between schemes to learn which kinds of 4-3 defenses are likely to generate worthwhile CBs, FSs or DTs.
For example, if you look at the percentage of points the LCB in the Tampa-2 generated last year vs the RCB, you'll find that LCBs generally outproduced RCBs. If you use that as a default, however, you'd probably miss that the two highest upside T2 backups, Cedric Gordon and Marlin Jackson, got the bulk of their snaps at RCB. Not to mention that Charles Tillman plays RCB.
If you were to look at the percentage of points among Tampa-2 CBs, you'd probably see that the Minnesota CBs had a significant percentage of tackles in relation to their LBs (and total defense) than the Chicago CBs did. Both teams were "aggressive" T2 teams, i.e. they ran a lot of standard man coverage and five man blitzes. The difference lies in the surrounding cast (Chicago had better backers and Nathan Vasher isn't nearly the run support player the Viking 2nd and 3rd corners are).
I don't necessarily think it's a bad exercise to do, but you'll have to make sure that the conclusions you draw are legitimate and not due to some other variable. For example, knowing that Tampa-2 CBs generally outscore man cover CBs will lead you to faulty conclusions. Plenty of Tampa-2 corners aren't going to produce good boxscore numbers, while some man cover corners will.
Feel free to turn this thread into a trend analysis thread where we consider and examine specific questions to determine if there are specific trends. Some of your (and others') questions may have already been analyzed, if only anecdotally, by other posters but many may not have been rigorously researched. There are plenty of "generally accepted and frequently cited defaults" that are worth confirming or that can be easily picked apart.
It's a great topic for discussion. I'll be happy to add my thoughts as always.
