New Dynasty Draft Strategy (1 Viewer)

[raydc]

In a brand new dynasty league consisting of 12 teams in a snaking draft (1 point per 10 yard rush/rec; 6 points any TD), if you are drafting late in the first round, do you take 2 RBs like Edgerrin James, Lamont Jordan, Rudi Johnson OR do you roll the dice on 2 rookie RB's like Laurence Maroney, Deangelo Williams, and Joseph Addai?

Obviously, if you pick a rookie RB, you'll be playing for next year. But you potentially will have set yourself up with 2 great RB's for the next 10 years. Versus someone like Edge or Jordan who will be good, not great, for the next 3 years at most.

Thoughts???

 

[Noahs Troopers]

In a brand new dynasty league consisting of 12 teams in a snaking draft (1 point per 10 yard rush/rec; 6 points any TD), if you are drafting late in the first round, do you take 2 RBs like Edgerrin James, Lamont Jordan, Rudi Johnson OR do you roll the dice on 2 rookie RB's like Laurence Maroney, Deangelo Williams, and Joseph Addai?

Obviously, if you pick a rookie RB, you'll be playing for next year. But you potentially will have set yourself up with 2 great RB's for the next 10 years. Versus someone like Edge or Jordan who will be good, not great, for the next 3 years at most.

Thoughts???

I would take the veterans at that spot. I would consider Maroney/Williams in the mid/late 2nd / early 3rd and Addai in round 4 or 5.

 

[Musesboy]

I would prefer a veteran at that spot, but I would rather have another 5-8 years of Peyton Manning over all of those options. A QB with a secure job is very valuable in the dynasty format.

 

[EBF]

I'd say it all depends on the player, but in general, rookie first round RBs don't offer great value. Guys like Maroney, Addai, and Williams are typically going in the 2nd-4th round range of 12 team leagues, which means owners are passing on proven stars to get these backs. That's a questionable move (although I do think Reggie Bush warrants consideration in the first two rounds and is a top 5-6 player in most dynasty PPR leagues).

 

[easy like sunday morning]

In a brand new dynasty league consisting of 12 teams in a snaking draft (1 point per 10 yard rush/rec; 6 points any TD), if you are drafting late in the first round, do you take 2 RBs like Edgerrin James, Lamont Jordan, Rudi Johnson OR do you roll the dice on 2 rookie RB's like Laurence Maroney, Deangelo Williams, and Joseph Addai?

Obviously, if you pick a rookie RB, you'll be playing for next year. But you potentially will have set yourself up with 2 great RB's for the next 10 years. Versus someone like Edge or Jordan who will be good, not great, for the next 3 years at most.

Thoughts???

No question I go with the veteran. First off, you should be able to get Maroney or others in the 3rd or 4th round even in a dynasty. You know what you are getting with the vets. All three guys you mention may not start at all this year. You have to play to win now while keeping your eye on the future in a dynasty league. Had the #2 pick in a new dynasty league and I did take Reggie Bush with my 3rd round pick.

 

[Capt Hook]

First I think it depends more on the people in your league than on the actual rookies value. If the whole league is on the "get one of the rookies" angle regardless of value then you have to decide whether to swim with the herd or against the currents.

Personally I have always thought that new Dynasty Leagues should have two drafts - one for the veterans and then a separate one for just for the first group of rookies (and do this one in reverse order of the vet draft). In future years you are just going to have the rookie draft - why not do it in year one as well.

If you want an article with ADP for new dynasty leagues I just posted one this week at

fantasyfootball.com

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

RB x 3 to start isn't a bad way to go.

Two younger vets then a rookie with solid potential. Bush is probably gone, but DA Williams or Maroney may be there. LWhite is another candidate.

Addai is a judgment call that early.

Later in the draft, take flyers on upside rookies vs. established vets. Vets are known commodities - to be dominant you need a rookie that has the potential for greatness.

Rook WR / RB / QB later in the draft are worth more than aging vets. They do have a place, but in general I stay at 30-31 and younger on my startup.

Check out these two:

HyperActive

There was trading involved in that league, BTW.

 

[MU Seminole]

I'd strongly consider RB in Rd 1 then stud WR in Rd 2...guys like Fitz are dynasty gold.

 

[raydc]

Thanks to all! Great info. If anyone else dynasty drafts to post (like MU Seminole), please do!

Capt Hook - I tried to check out your article on fantasyfootball.com, but I guess it's just paid content. Is that right?

 

[beto]

Personally I have always thought that new Dynasty Leagues should have two drafts - one for the veterans and then a separate one for just for the first group of rookies (and do this one in reverse order of the vet draft). In future years you are just going to have the rookie draft - why not do it in year one as well.

I think recent dynasty history has shown that doing what you suggest is a huge advantage to those drafting later in the vet draft.

 

[EBF]

Personally I have always thought that new Dynasty Leagues should have two drafts - one for the veterans and then a separate one for just for the first group of rookies (and do this one in reverse order of the vet draft). In future years you are just going to have the rookie draft - why not do it in year one as well.

I think recent dynasty history has shown that doing what you suggest is a huge advantage to those drafting later in the vet draft.

Aye. I hate the split draft format. It's totally unfair.

 

[BigJim®]

In the inaugural draft form my current dynasty league, one guy went 1.2 F.Taylor, 2.11 Jamal Lewis, 3.2 Thomas Jones.

He's been very competitive, so I wouldn't rule out drafting rookie/young RBs early. However, if you use this as a strategy you should probably expect one of your rookie picks to turn into a JJ Arrington, and none of them to be legit #1 RBs the first season. That may be fine if you are willing not to be very competitive year 1 and set yourself up for getting nice early rookie picks in year 2 to go with your young core. It's all hindsight, but I definitely prefer that drafting style to the guy who took Emmitt Smith and Dorsey Levens in the late 1st/early 2nd. That set his dynasty team back quite a bit.

 

[T Man]

If you go rookie, rookie in a new league better be sure that the league has staying power. IT would really stink if you sunk all your eggs into the future basket just to see the league go away in a year or two.

That said, if everyone else is going for this year, then the rookies will fall. SInce its all about value, you hate to draft a rookie RB like Addai in the 1st that you should be able to get in the 3rd round (and probably) later of a dynasty draft.

 

[Tick]

Personally, I'd go with the vets up to about 14 guys, then I'd shift to the top WRs, then back to RBs. I think Bush would fit in that second level of RB and the other rooks would fit in further down a bit.

 

[Buckna]

Personally I have always thought that new Dynasty Leagues should have two drafts - one for the veterans and then a separate one for just for the first group of rookies (and do this one in reverse order of the vet draft). In future years you are just going to have the rookie draft - why not do it in year one as well.

I think recent dynasty history has shown that doing what you suggest is a huge advantage to those drafting later in the vet draft.

Aye. I hate the split draft format. It's totally unfair.

I'm torn. Having done multiple initial drafts both ways now, it's obvious late teams are overly compensated in a split draft. However, at the same time, early picking teams in a combined draft have an advantage over the middle rounds and later picking teams. If an early picker trades back, their advantage gets even larger, as you can wring a lot of value out of trading back if you land one of the first few picks in an initial draft.

 

[nerangers]

I would go with the Veterans...you are going to get production out of them the next few years, and there is always another rookie class around the corner. I think too many equate Dynasty with young players....yet players like WR Rod Smith still gets you the points. You need a good mix of Veterans and Youth in a dynasty league.

As for taking Manning, it would depend on the roster requirements....if you played 2 QBs, then maybe. But in a 12 man league, I don't think you can pass on getting two top RBs first especially if the requirement is to start two of them vs one QB

.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

I had an initial dynasty draft last year where I thought about doing this. From a fairly early pick you could pretty much nab the top 3 rookie RBs for the year in most cases. I looked at it because headed into my draft KJ, JJ, and Jackson all had 1st round ADPs in dynasty drafts for that year. Essentially had you gone all 3 rookies the year before you could've basically sacrificed a year and then had 3 of the top 10 picks the next year.

Last year it would've netted Caddy, Ronnie, and Benson. Two of the three are top 10 overall picks in dynasty drafts going on now and Benson isn't that far behind so it looks like it could have worked out each of the last two years.

This year I would imagine if you picked at 4th or 5th it would be possible to grab Bush in the 1st, Maroney in the 2nd, and DeAngelo in the early 3rd.

Worth a shot if you're one of those guys that doesn't mind sacrificing a year or two.

 

[EBF]

I had an initial dynasty draft last year where I thought about doing this. From a fairly early pick you could pretty much nab the top 3 rookie RBs for the year in most cases. I looked at it because headed into my draft KJ, JJ, and Jackson all had 1st round ADPs in dynasty drafts for that year. Essentially had you gone all 3 rookies the year before you could've basically sacrificed a year and then had 3 of the top 10 picks the next year.

Last year it would've netted Caddy, Ronnie, and Benson. Two of the three are top 10 overall picks in dynasty drafts going on now and Benson isn't that far behind so it looks like it could have worked out each of the last two years.

This year I would imagine if you picked at 4th or 5th it would be possible to grab Bush in the 1st, Maroney in the 2nd, and DeAngelo in the early 3rd.

Worth a shot if you're one of those guys that doesn't mind sacrificing a year or two.

The problem with this strategy is that most of the flavor-of-the-year types don't actually end up justifying the top ten picks. Here are some names to remember:Anthony Thomas

LaDainian Tomlinson

William Green

Michael Bennett

Clinton Portis

Willis McGahee

Kevin Jones

Julius Jones

All of these guys were 1st-2nd round dynasty picks after their rookie years (I'm counting 2004 as McGahee's rookie year). How many of them have had production to match the hype? Portis and Tomlinson are studs. Thomas, Green, and Bennett look like busts. JJ, KJ, and McGahee are in limbo. They all have a chance to bounce back, but none of them justified his top ten status last season.

Ronnie Brown, Cadillac Williams, and Steven Jackson are this year's much-hyped "next big things". These guys are all consensus top ten dynasty picks. I'd be surprised if more than one of them actually ends up matching the hype with production.

It will be the same thing next year with this year's big five: Maroney, Williams, White, Addai, and Bush. Most of these guys will be overhyped and overrated next year if they're moderately productive as rookies. In the end, the odds will probably match past data. We'll probably get 1-2 studs, 1-2 solid players, and 1-2 busts from this group.

In short, you're probably looking at a 40-65% hit rate on these guys. That's not very exciting when you talk about your first three picks in a dynasty draft.

That said, I think Bush is a future star and I think Maroney and White are reasonable gambles at their dynasty ADP. I think people are reaching on Williams and Addai. I'd rather wait a round or two and get someone like White or Chris Perry.

 

[raydc]

EBF-

You make a good point that the hit rate is not 100% for rookie RBs. However, in an initial dynasty, you also have to compare that hit rate to the alternative of picking a vet with that pick.

My post assumes a late pick 10, 11, 12 in an initial dynasty draft. At that point and after the turn, you are left with the choice of 2 of the following RBs: Edge (maybe), Tiki, Jordan, Rudi, McGahee, Westbrook, Davis. Would you rather have say Tiki (too old) and Westbrook (too injury prone) for the next 5 years or roll the dice with Maroney and Deangelo? Tough call...

 

[EBF]

EBF-

You make a good point that the hit rate is not 100% for rookie RBs. However, in an initial dynasty, you also have to compare that hit rate to the alternative of picking a vet with that pick.

My post assumes a late pick 10, 11, 12 in an initial dynasty draft. At that point and after the turn, you are left with the choice of 2 of the following RBs: Edge (maybe), Tiki, Jordan, Rudi, McGahee, Westbrook, Davis. Would you rather have say Tiki (too old) and Westbrook (too injury prone) for the next 5 years or roll the dice with Maroney and Deangelo? Tough call...

Who says you have to take a RB? I'd take Chad Johnson and Torry Holt. Go with the value. If the "lock" RBs are gone, then you should take a "lock" WR, QB, or TE. I made the playoffs and won a playoff game in my Misfits league (very RB heavy scoring) last year with Warrick Dunn (RB12) and Kevin Jones (RB31) as my starting backs. Why? Anquan Boldin, Hines Ward, and Donovan McNabb.

I finished top three in scoring in another dynasty league with the same pair as my starting RBs. Why? Chad Johnson, Anquan Boldin, Hines Ward, and Alge Crumpler.

RB is just one of the many positions that you need to fill. Good WRs and QBs can help compensate for bad RBs.

That said, my championship teams have usually been strong at every position.

 

[Musesboy]

Who says you have to take a RB? I'd take Chad Johnson and Torry Holt. Go with the value. If the "lock" RBs are gone, then you should take a "lock" WR, QB, or TE.

I made the playoffs and won a playoff game in my Misfits league (very RB heavy scoring) last year with Warrick Dunn (RB12) and Kevin Jones (RB31) as my starting backs. Why? Anquan Boldin, Hines Ward, and Donovan McNabb.

I finished top three in scoring in another dynasty league with the same pair as my starting RBs. Why? Chad Johnson, Anquan Boldin, Hines Ward, and Alge Crumpler.

RB is just one of the many positions that you need to fill. Good WRs and QBs can help compensate for bad RBs.

That said, my championship teams have usually been strong at every position.

 

[BigJim®]

Anthony Thomas

LaDainian Tomlinson

William Green

Michael Bennett

Clinton Portis

Willis McGahee

Kevin Jones

Julius Jones

I'm not sure I agree with your point. If you look at these players in terms of dynasty value, any of them aside from Green, Bennett and A.Thomas could be parlayed into whatever you chose to trade them for. Looking over rounds 2-4 of the inaugural dynasty drafts where guys like KJ and JJ and McGahee could have been had, they were obviously good draft picks in retrospect. Anthony Thomas too was a great value had he been traded at his peak. He was a 2nd round rookie pick in my dynasty league, which tells me he could probably have been taken in the 10th-12th round of a start up dynasty league that season. Lo and behold he became worth a 2nd rounder if he was traded following his rookie year. Same with Henry, same with Willie Green. Not to mention that Bennett was being traded for value for 3 years based on potential. Comparing the selection of these guys to any other drafting philosophy, including the drafting of veteran RBs, you are probably getting more assured longterm dynasty value, statistically speaking.

 

[raydc]

EBF-

Good point. Who do you consider the "lock" RB's you'd take over Fitz, CJ, Holt, etc. in an initial dynasty draft. Obviously, LT, LJ, SAlex, Portis. But who else? Brown, Cadillac, Edge, SJax, Bush?

 

[BigJim®]

Who says you have to take a RB? I'd take Chad Johnson and Torry Holt. Go with the value. If the "lock" RBs are gone, then you should take a "lock" WR, QB, or TE.

Well yeah, obviously you'd take Chad Johnson and Torry Holt in an inaugural dynasty draft now. We'll see in 3-4 years whether that got you more longterm value than drafting Bush, Maroney, Williams, White. The point is that 3-4 years ago when you were passing on fad rookies like KJ, JJ, LT, Portis and McGahee you'd have been drafting can't miss players like Germane Crowell, Marcus Robinson, David Boston and Antonio Freeman. How would those picks have worked out for you from a longterm dynasty value perspective? Worse than the rookie backs?

 

[EBF]

EBF-

Good point. Who do you consider the "lock" RB's you'd take over Fitz, CJ, Holt, etc. in an initial dynasty draft. Obviously, LT, LJ, SAlex, Portis. But who else? Brown, Cadillac, Edge, SJax, Bush?

There aren't many locks in FF. I think Tomlinson and Portis are locks to remain productive starters for the next few years.

I have some reservations about LJ, but he's definitely worth the gamble in the top 3.

Alexander should be very solid for another 1-3 years, but he's entering dangerous mileage/age territory. If I took him high, it would be with the expectation that he doesn't have much left.

Beyond those guys, I think Bush is a great option in PPR leagues. His value goes down in non-PPR leagues, but he's still worth considering once the top few guys are gone. He's an absolutely great prospect.

I like Cadillac Williams and Steven Jackson. Both should be solid starters for a while, but I'd have reservations in the top 10 of a dynasty draft. I guess you could also file Rudi into this category.

Kevin Jones, Willis McGahee, and Julius Jones have a chance, but none should be drafted in the top 15.

I don't like LaMont Jordan, Domanick Davis, or Ronnie Brown. Tiki Barber is too old. I don't like Edgerrin James in a dynasty. Maybe he's another Emmitt, but he has a ton of tread off the tires.

 

[EBF]

Anthony Thomas

LaDainian Tomlinson

William Green

Michael Bennett

Clinton Portis

Willis McGahee

Kevin Jones

Julius Jones

I'm not sure I agree with your point. If you look at these players in terms of dynasty value, any of them aside from Green, Bennett and A.Thomas could be parlayed into whatever you chose to trade them for. Looking over rounds 2-4 of the inaugural dynasty drafts where guys like KJ and JJ and McGahee could have been had, they were obviously good draft picks in retrospect. Anthony Thomas too was a great value had he been traded at his peak. He was a 2nd round rookie pick in my dynasty league, which tells me he could probably have been taken in the 10th-12th round of a start up dynasty league that season. Lo and behold he became worth a 2nd rounder if he was traded following his rookie year. Same with Henry, same with Willie Green. Not to mention that Bennett was being traded for value for 3 years based on potential. Comparing the selection of these guys to any other drafting philosophy, including the drafting of veteran RBs, you are probably getting more assured longterm dynasty value, statistically speaking.

I don't think we necessarily disagree. Early pick RBs who show any signs of life as rookies are automatically overvalued in dynasty leagues. This means they carry a high trade value, but it does not mean that they will become great players.

Let's say you pick DeAngelo Williams in the third round this year. He rushes for 900 yards on 200 carries, including three straight one-hundred yad games to close the season. What do you do? Do you sell high in fear of him becoming the next Anthony Thomas, or do you hold him in hopes of him becoming the next Tomlinson? It's not exactly easy to make that call when you're sitting there with your finger on the trigger.

Instead of selecting all of the best rookie RBs in hopes of landing one or two eventual stars, I think you should specifically identify which one or two rookies have the best chance of success and then target only those guys with the intent of holding them when their value rises. That's what I typically do.

In 2004 I recommended Kevin Jones. In 2005 I recommended Cadillac Williams. I would've drafted either player in the second round of a 12 team dynasty draft prior to their rookie seasons. I wouldn't have drafted any of the other top rookies RBs at cost (Benson, Arrington, Jackson). You could argue that I missed out on Jackson, but I also managed to avoid Arrington and Benson. It's a risk-aversive approach to taking risks.

This year, I recommend Reggie Bush in round 1 of PPR dynasty leagues and rounds 1-2 of non-PPR dynasty leagues. I think Laurence Maroney becomes value in rounds 4-5 of these leagues. I think LenDale White becomes value in rounds 5-6 of these leagues. These are the three RBs that I feel have the best chance of ultimately succeeding. I won't draft Williams or Addai.

This may all seem irrelevant. My point is this: you shouldn't take the whole bunch of rookies early in the draft because history tells us that the whole bunch almost certainly won't pan out. Instead, indentify the 1-2 best bets and add those players to your target list. Let other owners gamble on the bad bets.

 

[EBF]

The point is that 3-4 years ago when you were passing on fad rookies like KJ, JJ, LT, Portis and McGahee you'd have been drafting can't miss players like Germane Crowell, Marcus Robinson, David Boston and Antonio Freeman. How would those picks have worked out for you from a longterm dynasty value perspective? Worse than the rookie backs?

You're using the best case scenario against the worst case scenario. I'd counter your Germane Crowell, David Boston, Marcus Robinson, and Antonio Freeman with Torry Holt, Isaac Bruce, Jimmy Smith, Terrell Owens, Marvin Harrison, and Rod Smith. And for every Portis and McGahee, there's a Michael Bennett and Anthony Thomas.

Some veterans flop. That's true, but you're kidding yourself if you think the odds of success for a rookie like DeAngelo Williams are equivalent to the odds of success for a multi-Pro Bowler like Torry Holt or Chad Johnson.

My point is that if you take Bush at 1.05, Maroney at 2.07, and Williams at 3.05, you'll probably get 1 stud, 1 solid player, and 1 bust. Personally, I aim for a better success rate than that.

 

[BigJim®]

Let's say you pick DeAngelo Williams in the third round this year. He rushes for 900 yards on 200 carries, including three straight one-hundred yad games to close the season. What do you do? Do you sell high in fear of him becoming the next Anthony Thomas, or do you hold him in hopes of him becoming the next Tomlinson? It's not exactly easy to make that call when you're sitting there with your finger on the trigger.

I completely understand your point. Nothing is assured, we agree. I'd still suggest the puzzle you mention is ten times better than waking up in a cold sweat one morning and realizing you drafted Javon Walker, M.Muhammed or Marc Bulger in the 3rd-5th round of your inaugural dynasty draft last year, passing up on Ronnie Brown and Ced Benson. Worse yet, you drafted a proven producer like Marvin Harrison 2004 over Steven Jackson, or Ike Bruce/Rod Smith/D.Mason Circa 2003 4 rounds before Larry Johnson was picked, or the guys who took Kurt Warner circa 2002 perghaps 7 rounds before finally missing out on Clinton Portis. I'd guess each of those happened in 95% of inaugural dynasty drafts. Maroney could probably show big dividends in 2007 (2nd-3rd round dynasty value in 2007?) even if he gets limited to 90 carries this season. For that reason I think he could safely be picked before you call him a 4th-5th round value this season. I'm really feeling the same way on White. He could very well be a 3rd round dynasty value in 2007 with the Brown/Henry contract situation, so I'd suspect in 2008 we will look back and say his 5th-6th round selection in 2006 was exceptional value, which tells me a guy can sleep at night taking him earlier. I think you'll miss the boat completely on D.Williams, but we'll see.

I do agree with you that a guy needs to earmark what limited youth he can have on a competitive team. I'm too competitive myself to waste too much roster on potential. But my main point is that it seems actually safer from a "does my dynasty team have the bargaining chips to put together the team I want?" perspective to err on the side of relying too heavily on young RBs. IMHO the mixing in of producing value-vets and FA finds is what makes a dynasty team successful in the short term anyway.

 

[BigJim®]

The point is that 3-4 years ago when you were passing on fad rookies like KJ, JJ, LT, Portis and McGahee you'd have been drafting can't miss players like Germane Crowell, Marcus Robinson, David Boston and Antonio Freeman. How would those picks have worked out for you from a longterm dynasty value perspective? Worse than the rookie backs?

You're using the best case scenario against the worst case scenario. I'd counter your Germane Crowell, David Boston, Marcus Robinson, and Antonio Freeman with Torry Holt, Isaac Bruce, Jimmy Smith, Terrell Owens, Marvin Harrison, and Rod Smith. And for every Portis and McGahee, there's a Michael Bennett and Anthony Thomas.

Some veterans flop. That's true, but you're kidding yourself if you think the odds of success for a rookie like DeAngelo Williams are equivalent to the odds of success for a multi-Pro Bowler like Torry Holt or Chad Johnson.

My point is that if you take Bush at 1.05, Maroney at 2.07, and Williams at 3.05, you'll probably get 1 stud, 1 solid player, and 1 bust. Personally, I aim for a better success rate than that.

(1) I'm happy to take a look at any inaugural dynasty draft you can post from 2000-2005 and look at where rookies went and what (frankly asinine) vets went before them. Sure, there will be a TJ Duckett/D.Foster who were drafted way too early in the 6th-8th rounds of an inaugural dynasty draft, in retrospect. My point has always been I believe that rookie RBs retain value a lot better than the crap being drafted around them, statistically speaking. Many rookies do not go in rounds 1-2 of inaugural rookie drafts. Most who are not guaranteed an immediate "no competition star" role go from round 3-8. (2) Like I mentioned, M.Bennett and A. Thomas, if anything, increased in value following where they were taken in inaugural dynasty drafts (My guess: M.Bennett 5th round, A.Thomas 12th round). So a guy didn't capitalize on his windfall and held on to them too long? Yeah, that stinks. Almost as bad as it would have stunk to use that same 4th-12th round 2002 pick to take Elvis Grbac and Ben Coates, no longer in the NFL. That's my point. You have to look at whether they were bad picks by comparing ADP of surrounding picks, in a dynasty format.

(3) I think DeAngello Williams could be traded outright for Torry Holt or CJ in dynasty formats by week 8, and will never look back. You disagree, I get it.

(4) Bush/Maroney/Williams would definitely lead to a rough 2006. I do think that drafting Bush®/CJ/Williams®/Palmer/(vet RB) a guy could do a heck of a lot worse, today or looking back in 2008. Still that would be considered by most to be spending too many early picks on rookies. I'm pretty sure the guy would be competitive for years to come, myself.

Obviously, speculative opinions.

 

[EBF]

I'd still suggest the puzzle you mention is ten times better than waking up in a cold sweat one morning and realizing you drafted Javon Walker, M.Muhammed or Marc Bulger in the 3rd-5th round of your inaugural dynasty draft last year, passing up on Ronnie Brown and Ced Benson. Worse yet, you drafted a proven producer like Marvin Harrison 2004 over Steven Jackson, or Ike Bruce/Rod Smith/D.Mason Circa 2003 4 rounds before Larry Johnson was picked, or the guys who took Kurt Warner circa 2002 perghaps 7 rounds before finally missing out on Clinton Portis. I'd guess each of those happened in 95% of inaugural dynasty drafts.

The problem I have with your argument is that you're specifically focusing on the horrible flops. Walker, Bulger, and Muhammad (who wasn't going anywhere near the 5th in my dynasty leagues) all had terrible seasons. I could counter by saying that a 3rd-5th of Ward, Brady, and Mason would've been very solid.

Maroney could probably show big dividends in 2007 (2nd-3rd round dynasty value in 2007?) even if he gets limited to 90 carries this season. For that reason I think he could safely be picked before you call him a 4th-5th round value this season. I'm really feeling the same way on White. He could very well be a 3rd round dynasty value in 2007 with the Brown/Henry contract situation, so I'd suspect in 2008 we will look back and say his 5th-6th round selection in 2006 was exceptional value, which tells me a guy can sleep at night taking him earlier. I think you'll miss the boat completely on D.Williams, but we'll see.

Maroney and Williams are already going in the 3rd round of a lot of 12 team dynasty drafts. Their trade values can't get that much higher, so for me it basically comes down to whether or not the player will actually perform. Historically, a significant portion of first round RBs don't pan out. There's no real reason to expect that trend to change.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

I had an initial dynasty draft last year where I thought about doing this. From a fairly early pick you could pretty much nab the top 3 rookie RBs for the year in most cases. I looked at it because headed into my draft KJ, JJ, and Jackson all had 1st round ADPs in dynasty drafts for that year. Essentially had you gone all 3 rookies the year before you could've basically sacrificed a year and then had 3 of the top 10 picks the next year.

Last year it would've netted Caddy, Ronnie, and Benson. Two of the three are top 10 overall picks in dynasty drafts going on now and Benson isn't that far behind so it looks like it could have worked out each of the last two years.

This year I would imagine if you picked at 4th or 5th it would be possible to grab Bush in the 1st, Maroney in the 2nd, and DeAngelo in the early 3rd.

Worth a shot if you're one of those guys that doesn't mind sacrificing a year or two.

The problem with this strategy is that most of the flavor-of-the-year types don't actually end up justifying the top ten picks. Here are some names to remember:Anthony Thomas

LaDainian Tomlinson

William Green

Michael Bennett

Clinton Portis

Willis McGahee

Kevin Jones

Julius Jones

All of these guys were 1st-2nd round dynasty picks after their rookie years (I'm counting 2004 as McGahee's rookie year). How many of them have had production to match the hype? Portis and Tomlinson are studs. Thomas, Green, and Bennett look like busts. JJ, KJ, and McGahee are in limbo. They all have a chance to bounce back, but none of them justified his top ten status last season.

Ronnie Brown, Cadillac Williams, and Steven Jackson are this year's much-hyped "next big things". These guys are all consensus top ten dynasty picks. I'd be surprised if more than one of them actually ends up matching the hype with production.

It will be the same thing next year with this year's big five: Maroney, Williams, White, Addai, and Bush. Most of these guys will be overhyped and overrated next year if they're moderately productive as rookies. In the end, the odds will probably match past data. We'll probably get 1-2 studs, 1-2 solid players, and 1-2 busts from this group.

In short, you're probably looking at a 40-65% hit rate on these guys. That's not very exciting when you talk about your first three picks in a dynasty draft.

That said, I think Bush is a future star and I think Maroney and White are reasonable gambles at their dynasty ADP. I think people are reaching on Williams and Addai. I'd rather wait a round or two and get someone like White or Chris Perry.

I absolutely, 100% agree with you on the miss rate of second year RBs coming off good rookie seasons, and it's something that most FFers overlook. I laugh everytime I see someone say Bush isn't a first round dynasty pick because he "hasn't played a down in the NFL" while at the same time putting guys like Ronnie and Caddy up there because they've somehow "proven themselves". Everyone ignores the fact that history has shown us that a second year RB coming off a good rookie year is no more likely to succeed than a rookie RB is.However I think there could be some value here in grabbing these guys in year 1 and trading them off in year 2. Just look at what Ronnie and Caddy are bringing in in trade value right now in dynasty leagues. Just think back to what KJ and JJ were bringing in at this point last year. I could be very possible to grab these guys in year 1 and trade them at first round ADP value in year 2 for more "proven" guys if that's your thing.

 

[Titans_fan]

I am posting the start of an initial dynasty draft I am participating in as we speak..12 teams, 22 rounds...standard scoring with some unique twists. Sacks costs QBs 1 point, return TDs are 6 pts for a player (10 for D/ST), passing TDs 6, .5 PPR...start 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 FLEX RB/WR, 1 TE, 1 K, 1 D/ST.

For the record, I'm Total Annihilation....rookies went a little earlier than expected, but all these guys were recruited from the message boards here, so thought it would be pertinent to the thread.

1.01 1 Total Annihilation Johnson, Larry KCC RB

1.02 2 Mega C-Men Tomlinson, Ladainian SDC RB

1.03 3 BoSox Alexander, Shaun SEA RB

1.04 4 TEAM-DEMON DOGS Portis, Clinton WAS RB

1.05 5 Doublavae James, Edgerrin ARI RB

1.06 6 Punishers Jackson, Steven STL RB

1.07 7 Chocolate Blue Chips Brown, Ronnie MIA RB

1.08 8 Peens Manning, Peyton IND QB

1.09 9 Cold Canadian Beer Barber, Tiki NYG RB

1.10 10 Hemi Power Jordan, Lamont OAK RB

1.11 11 The Chef Williams, Carnell TBB RB

1.12 12 The Other Woman Johnson, Rudi CIN RB

2.01 13 The Other Woman Smith, Steve CAR WR

2.02 14 The Chef Westbrook, Brian PHI RB

2.03 15 Chocolate Blue Chips Johnson, Chad CIN WR

2.04 16 Cold Canadian Beer Fitzgerald, Larry ARI WR

2.05 17 Peens Bush, Reggie NOS RB

2.06 18 Hemi Power McGahee, Willis BUF RB

2.07 19 Punishers Jones, Kevin DET RB

2.08 20 Doublavae Holt, Torry STL WR

2.09 21 TEAM-DEMON DOGS Owens, Terrell DAL WR

2.10 22 BoSox Benson, Cedric CHI RB

2.11 23 Mega C-Men Moss, Randy OAK WR

2.12 24 Total Annihilation Boldin, Anquan ARI WR

3.01 25 Total Annihilation Jones, Julius DAL RB

3.02 26 Mega C-Men Davis, Domanick HOU RB

3.03 27 BoSox Harrison, Marvin IND WR

3.04 28 TEAM-DEMON DOGS Gates, Antonio SDC TE

3.05 29 Doublavae Droughns, Reuben CLE RB

3.06 30 Punishers Wayne, Reggie IND WR

3.07 31 Hemi Power Chambers, Chris MIA WR

3.08 32 Peens Taylor, Chester MIN RB

3.09 33 Cold Canadian Beer Parker, Willie PIT RB

3.10 34 Hemi Power Jackson, Darrell SEA WR

3.11 35 The Chef Ward, Hines PIT WR

3.12 36 The Other Woman Lewis, Jamal BAL RB

4.01 37 The Other Woman Barber, Marion DAL RB

4.02 38 The Chef Brady, Tom NEP QB

4.03 39 Chocolate Blue Chips Palmer, Carson CIN QB

4.04 40 Cold Canadian Beer Williams, Roy DET WR

4.05 41 Peens Maroney, Laurence NEP RB

4.06 42 Hemi Power Manning, Eli NYG QB

4.07 43 Punishers Johnson, Andre HOU WR

4.08 44 Doublavae Walker, Javon DEN WR

4.09 45 TEAM-DEMON DOGS Williams, DeAngelo CAR RB

4.10 46 BoSox Horn, Joe NOS WR

4.11 47 Mega C-Men Burress, Plaxico NYG WR

4.12 48 Total Annihilation Dunn, Warrick ATL RB

5.01 49 Total Annihilation Houshmandzadeh, T.J. CIN

5.02 50 Mega C-Men White, LenDale TEN RB

5.03 51 BoSox Hasselbeck, Matt SEA QB

5.04 52 TEAM-DEMON DOGS Foster, De'shaun CAR

5.05 53 Doublavae Moss, Santana WAS WR

5.06 54 Punishers Addai, Joseph IND RB

5.07 55 Chocolate Blue Chips Evans, Lee BUF WR

5.08 56 Doublavae McNabb, Donovan PHI QB

5.09 57 Cold Canadian Beer Driver, Donald GBP WR

5.10 58 Chocolate Blue Chips Taylor, Fred JAC RB

5.11 59 The Chef Gonzalez, Tony KCC TE

5.12 60 The Other Woman Shockey, Jeremy NYG TE

6.01 61 The Other Woman Culpepper, Daunte MIA QB

6.02 62 The Chef Jackson, Chad NEP WR

6.03 63 Chocolate Blue Chips Bell, Tatum DEN RB

6.04 64 Cold Canadian Beer Jones, Matt JAC WR

6.05 65 Peens McAllister, Deuce NOS RB

6.06 66 Chocolate Blue Chips Green, Ahman GBP RB

6.07 67 Punishers Branch, Deion NEP WR

6.08 68 Peens Brown, Reggie PHI WR

6.09 69 TEAM-DEMON DOGS Stallworth, Donte' NOS WR

6.10 70 BoSox Bears, Chicago CHI Def

6.11 71 Mega C-Men Heap, Todd BAL TE

6.12 72 Total Annihilation Rhodes, Dominic IND RB

7.01 73 Total Annihilation Delhomme, Jake CAR QB

This is as far as we've gotten...I will continue to update if you gus want...

 

[raydc]

Titans Fan-

Thanks much for the draft list. Keep it coming! And anyone else who has actual inaugural dynasty drafts, please do the same...

 

[BigJim®]

Maroney and Williams are already going in the 3rd round of a lot of 12 team dynasty drafts. Their trade values can't get that much higher, so for me it basically comes down to whether or not the player will actually perform. Historically, a significant portion of first round RBs don't pan out. There's no real reason to expect that trend to change.

I don't think I'd be sleeping well at night having drafted Ward, Mason or Brady knowing I could have drafted Caddy/Ronnie Brown/Ced Benson last year. You could probably easily trade any of those 3 RBs individually for the whole lot of Ward/Mason/Brady one year later. Yeah I'm using examples, but I say you could post the entire 4th-5th rounds of inauguaral drafts from 2005 (where Brown/Benson probably went) and you'd see a lot of miscalculations that people at the time were considering "safer" than drafting rookies. That's the point I'm trying to make here. But go ahead and post a 2005 inaugural draft (or 2003-2004). We can discuss the specifics of whether drafting RBs earlier than they went would have been prudent.As for Maroney/Williams going in the 3rd round already, someone just posted draft results where they went in the early 4th, which I'd say is still decent value. You'd have missed them entirely waiting for the 5th (or beyond as to DWill). When I said I suspect they will be worth 3rd rounders next year, I consider that worst case scenario should they remain unproven (but are perceived to be 1 year closer to being studs). Either could take a lead RB position and instantly become Caddy/Brown the following year, worthy of consideration in the late 1st/early 2nd. Unlike the players being drafted around them (DD, Droughns, Harrison, Andre Johnson, Joe Horn, Dom Rhodes, Ahman Green, CTaylor), they are highly unlikely to slip to 7th-10th round dynasty value by next year regardless of what they do in 2006.

 

[s_ezy]

initial dynasty draft

 

[EBF]

Yeah I'm using examples, but I say you could post the entire 4th-5th rounds of inauguaral drafts from 2005 (where Brown/Benson probably went) and you'd see a lot of miscalculations that people at the time were considering "safer" than drafting rookies. That's the point I'm trying to make here. But go ahead and post a 2005 inaugural draft (or 2003-2004). We can discuss the specifics of whether drafting RBs earlier than they went would have been prudent.

There are always going to be bad veteran picks in an initial dynasty draft. That doesn't change the fact that an established veteran like Hines Ward or Reggie Wayne has a greater chance of remaining productive over the next few years than a rookie like DeAngelo Williams or Joseph Addai. You could argue that the potential payoff of a rookie RB is greater than the payoff of a player like Wayne or Ward. That's generally true, but it's unclear whether or not the increased upside is enough to compensate for the added risk.

When I said I suspect they will be worth 3rd rounders next year, I consider that worst case scenario should they remain unproven (but are perceived to be 1 year closer to being studs). Either could take a lead RB position and instantly become Caddy/Brown the following year, worthy of consideration in the late 1st/early 2nd. Unlike the players being drafted around them (DD, Droughns, Harrison, Andre Johnson, Joe Horn, Dom Rhodes, Ahman Green, CTaylor), they are highly unlikely to slip to 7th-10th round dynasty value by next year regardless of what they do in 2006.

I understand that, but I think it's a questionable strategy to draft players with the intent of trading them. I think most owners would be tempted to keep their young backs after their promising rookie years. Based on the leagues that I've been in, very few owners are looking to deal Benson, Brown, or Williams right now. It was the same story last year with Jackson, Jones, and Jones. If you manage to sell high on the eventual flops while keeping the eventual studs then the rookie hoarding strategy might be a good one, but that takes awfully keen judgment and is, IMO, unrealistic.

 

[sholditch]

In a brand new dynasty league consisting of 12 teams in a snaking draft (1 point per 10 yard rush/rec; 6 points any TD), if you are drafting late in the first round, do you take 2 RBs like Edgerrin James, Lamont Jordan, Rudi Johnson OR do you roll the dice on 2 rookie RB's like Laurence Maroney, Deangelo Williams, and Joseph Addai?

Obviously, if you pick a rookie RB, you'll be playing for next year. But you potentially will have set yourself up with 2 great RB's for the next 10 years. Versus someone like Edge or Jordan who will be good, not great, for the next 3 years at most.

Thoughts???

I think your estimation of Jordan but especially Edge is short-sighted and simply false. Edge will continue to be a top five back well beyond three years from now. He's got at least five more years of great play. Great, not good play. Check out some of the stud threads around. Edge is elite. But two answer your question I think the best bet in a startup dynasty is to take a solid RB1 in the first, someone established,, like Edge or Portis or Rudi or even Jordan. Bush usually goes somewhere in round 2. I passed on him to grab CJ to have a stud WR for years to come. I then managed to nab DWill in the third, who I think can be as good if not better than Bush, and then took Jamal Lewis in the fourth, to add another fairly solid vet to go with james (I have jamal down for a comeback year), and then grabbed White in the fifth. This was a league where we could start 3 RBs and 2 wide (or vice versa) and my strategy worked out pretty well. I didn't take another wide until round 8 (Matt Jones). In the sixth I took Gonzo (fifth TE off the board) and got McNabb in the seventh. This worked prretty well for me cause I am absolutely stacked at RB in 07, and have two very good prospects at WR1 and WR2 in CJ and Jones. I managed to fill out the roster with some vet WRs in later rounds (Moose in 9, Rod Smith in 11, Keyshawn in the 14th or 15th, then nabbed some rooks and second year players with potential)

Anyway, take a proven back in the 1st over any rookie (maybe except Bush) and then look for rooks in rounds 3-5. I got White in the fifth when the hype was mostly negative rather than positive, so he might have moved into the fourth by now.

 

[BigJim®]

Yeah I'm using examples, but I say you could post the entire 4th-5th rounds of inauguaral drafts from 2005 (where Brown/Benson probably went) and you'd see a lot of miscalculations that people at the time were considering "safer" than drafting rookies. That's the point I'm trying to make here. But go ahead and post a 2005 inaugural draft (or 2003-2004). We can discuss the specifics of whether drafting RBs earlier than they went would have been prudent.

There are always going to be bad veteran picks in an initial dynasty draft. That doesn't change the fact that an established veteran like Hines Ward or Reggie Wayne has a greater chance of remaining productive over the next few years than a rookie like DeAngelo Williams or Joseph Addai. You could argue that the potential payoff of a rookie RB is greater than the payoff of a player like Wayne or Ward. That's generally true, but it's unclear whether or not the increased upside is enough to compensate for the added risk.

When I said I suspect they will be worth 3rd rounders next year, I consider that worst case scenario should they remain unproven (but are perceived to be 1 year closer to being studs). Either could take a lead RB position and instantly become Caddy/Brown the following year, worthy of consideration in the late 1st/early 2nd. Unlike the players being drafted around them (DD, Droughns, Harrison, Andre Johnson, Joe Horn, Dom Rhodes, Ahman Green, CTaylor), they are highly unlikely to slip to 7th-10th round dynasty value by next year regardless of what they do in 2006.

I understand that, but I think it's a questionable strategy to draft players with the intent of trading them. I think most owners would be tempted to keep their young backs after their promising rookie years. Based on the leagues that I've been in, very few owners are looking to deal Benson, Brown, or Williams right now. It was the same story last year with Jackson, Jones, and Jones. If you manage to sell high on the eventual flops while keeping the eventual studs then the rookie hoarding strategy might be a good one, but that takes awfully keen judgment and is, IMO, unrealistic.

I don't necessaarily disagree with your positions. Where you and I seem to be polarized is I'm asking "if you don't draft Ronnie Brown at 3.9 in 2005, who did you draft"? I'd still suggest if your objective is to draft dynasty value, you can always trade it away. I don;t believe in drafting rookies purely as trade bait either. My point is that the trade bait is a facet and secondary opportunity you will not get drafting vets, generally speaking. Case in point, JJ Arrington traded hands 2 times last season in my dynasty league, the first trade netting Chad Johnson for the guy who drafted JJ, and the second guy thereafter trading JJ away for Hines Ward and a future 2nd round rookie pick. Technically speaking, JJ Arrington is a pile of dung who should not have been able to land a top 10 WR, but he did, twice. You don't have the same flexibility if you draft some of these other guys who are going in rounds 3-4, because no one is going to want them next year and no one believes they have a ceiling yet to hit. They have diminishing returns, and everyone knows that. If they don't perform for you, you are totally screwed without any additional option to unload them.I named the guys who are going absurdly high (IMHO) in the 2006 dynasty draft posted to this very thread... like R.Droughns and Ahman Green. I'm not suggesting you would, but there's just no way I use that high of a pick to take a guy like Ahman Green, who may not make it to the end of training camp, or Ruben Droughns, who has a decent shot to fall out of favor in Cleveland given his personal issues. Really the same holds true for JJ who may be on his last opportunity in Dallas. DeAngelo Williams is definitely a safer dynasty pick in that area.

If I wasn't in firewall hell at work, I'd pull up an abundance of 2005 inaugural dynasty drafts and perform a 2005-2006 ADP comparison of the rookies vs. productive crusty vets drafted around them and find the general +/- between those two groups. I would guess without doing a thing that rookie RBs drafted in the top 10 rounds increased in value from 2005-2006... perhaps by an average of 2-4 rounds, while vets decreased in value by as significant a decline.

 

[EBF]

If I wasn't in firewall hell at work, I'd pull up an abundance of 2005 inaugural dynasty drafts and perform a 2005-2006 ADP comparison of the rookies vs. productive crusty vets drafted around them and find the general +/- between those two groups. I would guess without doing a thing that rookie RBs drafted in the top 10 rounds increased in value from 2005-2006... perhaps by an average of 2-4 rounds, while vets decreased in value by as significant a decline.

I'm actually known for drafting a lot of rookies and have had some success with that strategy in the past. I think the key thing to remember is that you have to be selective in the early rounds. While many of this year's top 5 rookie RBs will continue to carry significant value for 1-2 more years, it's likely that only 2 or 3 of them will eventually become solid FF starters. The key is to focus your efforts on the 1-2 most bulletproof rookie backs. In 2004, I liked the value that Kevin Jones offered. Last year I liked Cadillac. This year I think Bush is a good pick. Maroney and White are also good picks for the right price. I would definitely take a chance on one of these guys (and have), but I wouldn't use my first five picks to get the whole lot of them. That's my point here. These guys aren't all going to succeed and if you have a keen nose for the overhyped, then you can typically have a much better hit rate by going with veteran talent. That doesn't mean Maroney isn't a great pick in the 4th. It just means that anyone expecting all five of these guys to pan out is naive.

My new philosophy in dynasty leagues is to make every pick count. In my most recent dynasty draft, I took Reggie Bush, Larry Fitzgerald, Ben Roethlisberger, and Jeremy Shockey with my first four picks. I feel confident that each player will be among the best in the NFL at his position for as long as he's healthy. I wouldn't feel that way about my picks if I had taken Reggie Bush, Laurence Maroney, DeAngelo Williams, and Joseph Addai.

 

[BigJim®]

My new philosophy in dynasty leagues is to make every pick count. In my most recent dynasty draft, I took Reggie Bush, Larry Fitzgerald, Ben Roethlisberger, and Jeremy Shockey with my first four picks. I feel confident that each player will be among the best in the NFL at his position for as long as he's healthy. I wouldn't feel that way about my picks if I had taken Reggie Bush, Laurence Maroney, DeAngelo Williams, and Joseph Addai.

Nor would I. I wouldn't use every single early round pick on rookies, not through the 4th round. But as I posted before, I'd be tickled pink if I was in an inaugural dynasty draft this year and walked away with (1) Bush, (2) CJ/Fitz, (3) DeAngelo Williams, (4) Palmer, (5) winding down productive vet RB. The only difference between that and the original post is that I'm taking a more proven/usable commodity in the 2nd, but I'm not necessarily losing dynasty value doing it. On your draft, I think you could have drafted a rookie RB in place of Roethlisberger and drafted a similarly productive QB later (for example, the draft posted to this thread had Hasselbeck going in the 5th, and Delhomme in the 7th), if you were inclined to do that. Doesn't make you wrong for taking Roethlisberger there, but I'd personally presume you could trade DeAngello Williams/Maroney for 3 Roethlisbergers next year unless he puts himself in Manning's class (which would surprise me). Obviously, speculating.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

EBF, I think you're missing out on the vision of the strategy I've seen forming this thread. I certainly was not talking about spending all five of your first picks on rookies, nor would I include any of those second tier rookie RBs in the strategy (guys like Arrington last year, Addai and White this year). It's certainly not an every year type of thing, and I would reserve it for years where there is a relatively strong top tier of RBs. Years where everyone knows that the rookie RB class is relatively like the Green/Duckett year would certainly be years to not consider it, though even in that year (one of the worst) Willie Green went into year 2 with lots of value.

The thing about those clear-cut top tier rookie RBs like we had last year with Ronnie/Caddy/Benson and have again this year with Bush/Maroney/DeAngelo is that really in the short term when you're talking about year 2 value and the possibility of trade it is in fact a very safe, not risky investment as those guys are going to at least hold their value in year two and in almost all cases see it increase. You look at a guy like Benson who had everything go wrong last year and barely even touched the ball and his value is still at least as high (likely higher) than it was when he came into the league. If a guy puts up an even mildly mediocre year like Ronnie/Caddy did we see their value skyrocket to the range of guys that have been putting up top 5-10 numbers for years.

When you look at the guys you're talking about taking instead like Hines and Wayne in terms of pure next year value you're looking at nowhere near the highside and a much worse low side. If a guy like Ward puts up a mediocre or below average season his value is going to plummet as everyone knows he's older, not still improving, and has no real upside, and it would take nothing short of a miracle to make him a top 10 pick next year whereas each of the last few years we've seen several of the rookie RBs easily get into the top 10 without really even putting up any good seasons. A couple flashy runs or a couple big games are all that it takes to propel those top RBs into the top 10 ADP the next year, in which spot you hold great value. Likewise with Wayne he actually put up pretty solid numbers for a WR this past year yet his ADP has fallen by nearly a round. Maroney could go the entire season without even touching the ball this year and his value next year would still be at least what it is right now, and if he shows any signs of life or Dillon head to pasture he leaps right into that range where Ronnie/Caddy are right now, at which point you could pretty much trade him for a WR of your choice and another decent RB on top of that. The payoff is of course that you're giving up a year but that's a given in this "strategy". Why settle for Ward or Wayne when you could have Steve Smith and Dominick Davis instead by using the same draft pick? And even if it doesn't work out the rookie is going to hold his value because he's a young, talented RB and you can at least get back what you would have normally taken. I'm sure there are plenty of people out there more than willing to give up a Ward or Wayne for a guy like Benson who didn't work out, whereas if the guy does work out you're looking at a whollllleeee lot more.

And you're right, there aren't many people shopping Ronnie or Caddy right now....because they don't have to. Half the league is coming to them throwing everything they've got at them.

No, this isn't your normal strategy. No, it's not going to even be worth trying every year. Yes, you're going to give up a year. But considering that it's a lot lower risk than most think (you can easily trade these guys in year 2 for the value you got them at if they don't work out) and that the possible upside is enormous (even if you don't want to keep the guys you could probably trade them for the equivalent of three first round picks the next year) I think it's a viable option. In the 12 team dynasty draft I can't pick out a single team that has more current value out of their first three picks than holding the top 3 rookies from last year would give them right now (though of course I certainly wouldn't recommend it from the early spots, obviously there you take LT/LJ). It's an abstract outside the box strategy, much like the WR/WR one we inevitably see posted about every year, and I think it could work in the right year. Two years ago was one of those years, last year was one of those years, and I think that this year is certainly one of those years with 3 very highly rated and clear-cut top-tier backs that really can't lose much value between this year and next year. Next year also could end up being one of those years with ADP and Lynch if anyone else really sticks out with them.

 

[EBF]

EBF, I think you're missing out on the vision of the strategy I've seen forming this thread. I certainly was not talking about spending all five of your first picks on rookies, nor would I include any of those second tier rookie RBs in the strategy (guys like Arrington last year, Addai and White this year). It's certainly not an every year type of thing, and I would reserve it for years where there is a relatively strong top tier of RBs. Years where everyone knows that the rookie RB class is relatively like the Green/Duckett year would certainly be years to not consider it, though even in that year (one of the worst) Willie Green went into year 2 with lots of value.

Who says this is a strong crop of RBs? Last year, Brown, Benson, and Williams were all top 5 picks. This year, only one back was chosen in the top 20. Like it or not, Maroney, Williams, and Addai are second tier backs. Obviously we've seen some great RBs drafted in the 20s recently (LJ, Jackson, Alexander), but that doesn't change the fact that 20 teams passed on these guys. Does it particularly

The thing about those clear-cut top tier rookie RBs like we had last year with Ronnie/Caddy/Benson and have again this year with Bush/Maroney/DeAngelo is that really in the short term when you're talking about year 2 value and the possibility of trade it is in fact a very safe, not risky investment as those guys are going to at least hold their value in year two and in almost all cases see it increase.

I agree completely. Their values will probably increase or remain steady for the next 1-2 years, but how are you to know whether you should sell high or hold? A lot of owners thought they hit the jackpot after Anthony Thomas' rookie year. I highly doubt many of them were thinking sell high. Odds are that most of those owners stubbornly held the A-Train until his value had plummeted. I suppose if you draft these guys with the specific intention of trading them then it might be a solid strategy. The thing is, I don't know many owners who are itching to trade their premium young backs. Most people fall victim to hype and irrational optimism. They want to keep their little asset because they've become convicned that they have the next Tomlinson. By the time they realize how wrong they were, it's too late.

When you look at the guys you're talking about taking instead like Hines and Wayne in terms of pure next year value you're looking at nowhere near the highside and a much worse low side. If a guy like Ward puts up a mediocre or below average season his value is going to plummet as everyone knows he's older

Trade value is important, but you don't win leagues because your players had high trade values. You win leagues because your players score points. Ward and Wayne will score points. They'll help you win. They would've been much more useful last year than either Benson or Brown (who combined for two 100 yard games).

It's an abstract outside the box strategy, much like the WR/WR one we inevitably see posted about every year, and I think it could work in the right year. Two years ago was one of those years, last year was one of those years, and I think that this year is certainly one of those years with 3 very highly rated and clear-cut top-tier backs that really can't lose much value between this year and next year. Next year also could end up being one of those years with ADP and Lynch if anyone else really sticks out with them.

I still think that it's a pretty weak idea. I can honestly say that I've never seen an owner in one of my leagues sell a first round rookie after his first season. It just doesn't happen. More often than not, owners hang on far too late. That's what I'd expect to happen to people who try this strategy. I had JJ and KJ on the same roster last year. When you're sitting there with two flashy young backs that everyone has ranked in their dynasty top ten, you're not looking to make a trade.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Who says this is a strong crop of RBs? Last year, Brown, Benson, and Williams were all top 5 picks. This year, only one back was chosen in the top 20. Like it or not, Maroney, Williams, and Addai are second tier backs. Obviously we've seen some great RBs drafted in the 20s recently (LJ, Jackson, Alexander), but that doesn't change the fact that 20 teams passed on these guys. Does it particularly

I don't contend that this year's class of RBs is as strong as last years, but I still would certainly say it's strong. Comparing draft spots is a way overly simplistic argument. In 2005 there were two teams in the top 5 that had desperate needs for RBs, whereas 2006 was a lot more like 2004 where RBs fell a bit because there were very few teams that needed one. I think it's a testament to the talent of these three guys that they all ended up tempting teams that didn't really "need" a RB (especially not to the extent that Miami or Tampa did last year) into taking them with their 1st round picks.

Trade value is important, but you don't win leagues because your players had high trade values. You win leagues because your players score points. Ward and Wayne will score points. They'll help you win. They would've been much more useful last year than either Benson or Brown (who combined for two 100 yard games).

Of course Wayne and Ward scored more points, like I said you're giving up year 1 here in most cases, that's built-in to the strategy. But speaking on players that score more points right now you could trade Brown for Smith and a guy like DD, who are going to put up a lot more points than a guy like Ward is. Pure points.

I suppose if you draft these guys with the specific intention of trading them then it might be a solid strategy. The thing is, I don't know many owners who are itching to trade their premium young backs. Most people fall victim to hype and irrational optimism. They want to keep their little asset because they've become convicned that they have the next Tomlinson. By the time they realize how wrong they were, it's too late.

I still think that it's a pretty weak idea. I can honestly say that I've never seen an owner in one of my leagues sell a first round rookie after his first season. It just doesn't happen. More often than not, owners hang on far too late. That's what I'd expect to happen to people who try this strategy.I had JJ and KJ on the same roster last year. When you're sitting there with two flashy young backs that everyone has ranked in their dynasty top ten, you're not looking to make a trade.

Why is it the fault of the strategy because someone is too weak to hype to follow it? The WR/WR strategy has you picking RBs with your next few picks to catch up. If someone goes WR/WR and then there next three picks are QB/WR/TE their team is going to be pretty bad, but that's because they didn't do it right, not because the strategy itself didn't work.