Since I had heard so much talk of the Pats' offense being projected to fall apart with AH being the straw that boke the camel's back, I decided to look up how NE did WITHOUT Hernandez playing. Here's what I found . . .
In 10 games without AH playing over the past 3 years, the Pats averaged 38.3 ppg and 444 yards of offense per game. They scored at least 30 points in every game and also had 45, 52, and 59 points without Hernandez.
In the 38 games Hernandez did play in, the offense averaged 31.6 ppg and 397 yards of offense per game.
In the main, I don't think the Pats offense gets better by not having Hernandez off the team, but it certainly does not appear that they missed him all that much when he wasn't playing.
Similarly, I don't think the Pats will take their best player (Brady) and have him hand the ball off all day long because there are new bodies to throw to (as some people have suggested). I still think the Pats will throw a ton . . . they may just have more incompletions to show for it this year.
How have they done without AH, Gronk, Welker, and Woodhead? Generally losing 1 player at any time is easy to overcome. Losing pretty much all of his weapons at the same time is what is worrisome. You can even throw Lloyd in there if you want.
excellent point, Ahern was the last piece from last yrs Passing offense that was still intact. To not expect a drop in production is a little short sighted
Here's the thing. Once Brady honed his craft, the Pats have reinvented themselves on offense several times, and each step along the way made some significant changes. From a passing perspective, NE over the years went from a find-the-open-man approach to more of a ground and pound with some deeper routes to the dink and dunk with bubble screens to shock and awe with Moss and Welker to a 2 TE set to the hurry up to whatever is next.
I tend to believe BB that the slot receiver in the NE offense will be money no matter who it is. So while technically they will not have Welker, they will have someone very similar. Troy Brown caught a zillion balls before Welker did and Edelman stepped in when needed and all those guys were very productive without the offense skipping a beat.
After the disappointing loss to IND in the 2006 AFCC, the Pats retooled their receiving corps. We all know how that tuned out, but at the time people were saying they were nuts to go after a washed up prima donna in Moss and trading a 2nd and 7th for some kid very view had heard of named Welker. They also added Stallworth, who several people questioned whether he was a fit. They also retained Gaffney, who was added late in the season the season before but who was left for dead after a previously disappointing career until then. At the time, fans in NE thought BB had lost his mind.
As the years progressed, Deion Branch was added to the mix, who more than a step, but still was able to be productive despite having limited skills. They also dumped Moss, and the huge majority said the Pats had no deep threat and the offense was doomed. Then they added Lloyd, who was mostly a pedestrian receiver that happened to have struck lightning in a bottle one season in DEN.
For years the Pats seemingly ignored the TE spot, then they added Gronk and Hernandez and both became big cogs to the offense. They also seamlessly transitioned from Faulk to Woodhead and now Vereen.
So sure, the names will be different, but for the most part the composition of the team will be mostly similar in terms of how people play, their roles, and how they fit. Ballard fills a role similar to Gronk, and he will likely fill the Gronk void (albeit not at the same level) until Gronk gets back. At this point, I don't see how anyone could suggest Vereen cannot replicate what Woodhead did. Amendola should be able to produce similar to what Brown and Welker did before him (maybe not quite as high but in the realm). Gronk may miss a few games, but it's not like he is gone for the season.
Realistically, whoever fills the roles of Branch or Lloyd is still up in the air but not exactly essential either. NE normally had another receiver in the 800-900 yard range not named Welker, and someone could emerge as that guy whether that be Edelman, Dobson, Boyce, or one of the retreads.
So sure, Brady could see his numbers drop some. Maybe he won't throw for 5000/35. Maybe he dips to 4300/30. But the offense should still be one of the best in the league even if the totals are lower than the past few seasons. To listen to some folks, they have the Pats potentially as a Bottom 10 offense based on how they are describing the offense.
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