New Greatest QB of all Time List (1 Viewer)

[Chase Stuart]

Here's the short version of the story. I ranked every QB in NFL history based on their production above the league average in every season of their career. I also summed up their careers, giving the most weight to their best seasons. At this link you can check the full post, and read (through the other links) more about the methodology.

I've since added post-season data, with two caveats. One, I only had post-season data from between '67 and '06, and two, I don't have sacks allowed data for any playoff QB ever. Those are big problems, but not fatal, as long as you keep that in mind.

I think this list conforms pretty well to most people's expectations, which is good. On the other hand, there are some surprises, which are worth checking out. Maybe you'll rethink your current best ever lists.

(And finally, if anyone can point me to some pre-1967 career playoff data, that'd be awesome).

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/?p=550

Finally, I put an asterisk next to guys who may have had some playoff games not counted. I also included the QB’s regular season rank from Tuesday’s list.

Rk							  Rating  RegRk 1	Joe Montana			   9586	 5 2	Steve Young			   8775	 3 3	Dan Marino				8737	 1 4	Peyton Manning*		   8100	 2 5	Fran Tarkenton*		   6735	 4 6	Dan Fouts				 6661	 6 7	Roger Staubach			6483	 9 8	Ken Anderson			  6468	 8 9	Johnny Unitas*			6269	 710	Brett Favre*			  5793	1111	Len Dawson*			   5683	1012	John Elway				5040	1513	Kurt Warner			  4778	1814	Norm Van Brocklin*		4688	1215	Bart Starr*			   4570	1616	Sonny Jurgensen*		  4448	1317	Terry Bradshaw			4410	3918	Tom Brady				 4307	1919	Troy Aikman			   4304	3720	Otto Graham*			  4250	1421	Daryle Lamonica*		  4083	2722	Warren Moon			   3909	2123	Boomer Esiason			3857	1724	Roman Gabriel*			3826	2025	Trent Green			   3693	2226	Sid Luckman*			  3667	2327	Y.A. Tittle*			  3632	2528	John Hadl*				3620	2429	Jim Hart*				 3579	2630	Steve McNair			  3475	2831	Joe Namath*			   3427	3032	Jeff Garcia*			  3344	2933	Sammy Baugh*			  3305	3234	Daunte Culpepper		  3149	3335	Ken Stabler			   3098	4936	Bob Griese				3096	4037	John Brodie*			  3030	3538	Rich Gannon			   3019	3139	Bert Jones				2997	3640	Donovan McNabb			2702	3841	Mark Rypien			   2697	5042	Randall Cunningham		2644	4543	Earl Morrall*			 2453	4144	Drew Brees*			   2435	5145	Billy Kilmer*			 2421	4346	Jim Kelly				 2407	3447	Bobby Layne*			  2396	4848	Joe Theismann			 2352	5549	Bernie Kosar			  2297	5350	Mark Brunell			  2293	4251	Vinny Testaverde		  2174	5252	Steve Grogan			  2140	4753	Matt Hasselbeck*		  2119	5654	Phil Simms				2064	6055	Doug Williams			 1985	5856	Jim Everett			   1983	4657	Charlie Conerly*		  1900	5758	Don Meredith*			 1879	5459	Jim McMahon			   1876	7960	Greg Landry			   1798	6161	Jake Delhomme			 1793	9262	Milt Plum*				1766	6263	Jeff Hostetler			1751	8764	Carson Palmer			 1726	6565	Craig Morton*			 1717	4466	George Blanda*			1693	6367	Neil Lomax				1684	6968	Frank Ryan*			   1675	6769	Brad Johnson			  1663	5970	Steve DeBerg			  1607	7071	Johnny Lujack*			1584	7172	Marc Bulger			   1545	7473	Brian Sipe				1525	6474	Billy Wade*			   1501	7375	Dave Krieg				1499	66

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

Rk Rating RegRk 1 Joe Montana 9586 5 2 Steve Young 8775 3 3 Dan Marino 8737 1 4 Peyton Manning* 8100 2 5 Fran Tarkenton* 6735 4 6 Dan Fouts 6661 6 7 Roger Staubach 6483 9 8 Ken Anderson 6468 8 9 Johnny Unitas* 6269 710 Brett Favre* 5793 1111 Len Dawson* 5683 1012 John Elway 5040 1513 Kurt Warner 4778 1814 Norm Van Brocklin* 4688 1215 Bart Starr* 4570 1616 Sonny Jurgensen* 4448 1317 Terry Bradshaw 4410 3918 Tom Brady 4307 1919 Troy Aikman 4304 3720 Otto Graham* 4250 1421 Daryle Lamonica* 4083 2722 Warren Moon 3909 2123 Boomer Esiason 3857 17******************

Great stuff here, any way to get this updated?

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/?p=550

 

[kyoun1e]

I love the attempt to quantify this vs. going around in circles with ridiculous biases and posts riddled with hatred.

Some shockers for sure.

Like Marino and Fouts getting some love.

 

[Adam Harstad]

Rk Rating RegRk 1 Joe Montana 9586 5 2 Steve Young 8775 3 3 Dan Marino 8737 1 4 Peyton Manning* 8100 2 5 Fran Tarkenton* 6735 4 6 Dan Fouts 6661 6 7 Roger Staubach 6483 9 8 Ken Anderson 6468 8 9 Johnny Unitas* 6269 710 Brett Favre* 5793 1111 Len Dawson* 5683 1012 John Elway 5040 1513 Kurt Warner 4778 1814 Norm Van Brocklin* 4688 1215 Bart Starr* 4570 1616 Sonny Jurgensen* 4448 1317 Terry Bradshaw 4410 3918 Tom Brady 4307 1919 Troy Aikman 4304 3720 Otto Graham* 4250 1421 Daryle Lamonica* 4083 2722 Warren Moon 3909 2123 Boomer Esiason 3857 17******************

Great stuff here, any way to get this updated?

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/?p=550

Chase ran a more recent ranking just prior to the 2012 season, which can be seen here.

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

Thanks a lot - it's Peyton for all time regular season GOAT now but I think the prior article also had an analysis wrapping in all time postseason as part of the numbers. Payton was already 4th and he has since had 2 more SB appearances albeit with 1 loss and 1 TBD. Also other QBs like Brady may have moved up in the meantime with postseason success.

 

[az_prof]

Rk Rating RegRk 1 Joe Montana 9586 5 2 Steve Young 8775 3 3 Dan Marino 8737 1 4 Peyton Manning* 8100 2 5 Fran Tarkenton* 6735 4 6 Dan Fouts 6661 6 7 Roger Staubach 6483 9 8 Ken Anderson 6468 8 9 Johnny Unitas* 6269 710 Brett Favre* 5793 1111 Len Dawson* 5683 1012 John Elway 5040 1513 Kurt Warner 4778 1814 Norm Van Brocklin* 4688 1215 Bart Starr* 4570 1616 Sonny Jurgensen* 4448 1317 Terry Bradshaw 4410 3918 Tom Brady 4307 1919 Troy Aikman 4304 3720 Otto Graham* 4250 1421 Daryle Lamonica* 4083 2722 Warren Moon 3909 2123 Boomer Esiason 3857 17******************

Great stuff here, any way to get this updated?

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/?p=550

Good start, but...

1) Where is Brees? The guy is incredible and he has played without a HOF WR IMO for most of his career. And while I grew up watching in the old era and love those old guys, some of them are on this list because their teams won Super Bowls; but in that era, the QB was less critical and D was the most crucial aspect of the game.

I would downgrade: Terry Bradshaw, Sonny Jurgenson, Len Dawson!!!,

and,

I would upgrade: Drew Brees (top 15 if not top 10) and Tom Brady--they are every bit as deserving as Peyton.

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

Well to the above I think the first analysis was through 2007 only which is why we see Drew missing and could use some new data. As someone else pointed out its cool to put something solid behind the rankings.

 

[Sweet Love]

Is Young so high on this list due to his gaudy completion percentage? Without that being a main component, I don't get why he is so high.

 

[Adam Harstad]

Is Young so high on this list due to his gaudy completion percentage? Without that being a main component, I don't get why he is so high.

Really? I think Young in his prime was arguably the most dominant QB in NFL history. He led the league in YPA 5 times in a 7-year span. He led the league in Adjusted YPA (gives a bonus for TDs and a penalty for INTs) 6 times in 7 years. Led the league in QB Rating (which, admittedly, double-counts completion percentage) 6 times in 7 years, and the one year he didn't, he led the league in passing yards per game. 2-time MVP, 3-time first team AP All Pro, 5th in career yards per attempt with a hard-to-believe 8.0, and 2nd in career adjusted yards per attempt with 7.94. And notice that I haven't once mentioned his rushing ability yet.

 

[GregR]

Is Young so high on this list due to his gaudy completion percentage? Without that being a main component, I don't get why he is so high.

Just from eyeballing things I'd guess it's more than that. First, he was the highest value QB in the league in quite a few seasons he played. Chase's system also includes rushing yards and rushing TDs. There aren't a lot of stellar running QBs amongst the top ones, so Young is going to have an advantage there as well.

 

[ShaHBucks]

No Nick Foles?

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

I just thought it worth noting somewhere somehow that two QBs in league history have thrown for 7 TDs and 500+ yards in one game - Y.A. Tittle and Drew Brees.